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Multi-trait genomic-enabled prediction enhances accuracy in multi-year wheat breeding trials

A CIMMYT researcher and a field worker lay out wheat seed for planting at the center's headquarters in Texcoco, Mexico. In experimental trials, hundreds or thousands of wheat lines are planted for evaluation, each in small quantities, and so they are carefully laid out and sown by hand. (Photo: CIMMYT)
A CIMMYT researcher and a field worker lay out wheat seed for planting at the center’s headquarters in Texcoco, Mexico. In experimental trials, hundreds or thousands of wheat lines are planted for evaluation, each in small quantities, and so they are carefully laid out and sown by hand. (Photo: CIMMYT)

To help feed a growing world population, wheat scientists have turned to innovative technologies like genomic selection to hasten selection for positive traits — such as high grain yield performance and good grain quality — in varieties that are still undergoing testing. Instead of being shackled by the long duration of traditional breeding cycles, genomic selection allows scientists to make predictions regarding which traits will present when crossing two varieties; allowing breeders greater guidance and lessening potential time lost when crossing varieties that do not display potential for genetic gain. To reap the benefits of genomic selection, it is vital that the predictive models employed are as accurate as possible.

Currently, wheat breeders select characteristics like grain yield performance early in the breeding process, while selecting traits like good grain quality at a later stage in the breeding process.

In an article in the journal G3 Genes, researchers from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), and partners, led by CIMMYT scientist José Crossa along with Leonardo A. Crespo, Maria Itria Ibba and Alison R. Bentley, endeavored to determine if genomic prediction models could select for both characteristics simultaneously in the breeding process. This would improve selection accuracy in both early and later breeding stages, resulting a reduction in time and expense in delivering improved wheat varieties. They also tested the accuracy of a set of specific mathematical corrections applied to genomic predictions. These correction models identify correlations between genomic predictions and observed breeding values, such as increased yield or grain quality.

Considering two or more traits, like grain yield and good grain quality, is an example of a multi-trait model. The team examined this multi-trait model against a single trait model that improves one specific trait. Overall, the researchers found that prediction performance was highest using the multi-trait model.

However, the team also demonstrated that when breeding programs arrive at their genetic predictions, applying a specific correction method will account for differences between the predicted breeding value and the actual observed breeding value. Current correction models tend to underestimate that difference, which results in breeding programs not running as efficiently as possible.

By partnering selections from different stages in the breeding process and examining the resulting genetic predictions through a more appropriate correction model, the team has shown that breeding programs can use this to their benefit in developing and ultimately releasing improved wheat varieties that meet growing yield needs worldwide and respond to abiotic and biotic stressors.

CIMMYT scientists join 60th All India Wheat and Barley Research Workers’ Meet

Gyanendra Pratap Singh (center), Director of ICAR-IIWBR, presents at the 60th All India Wheat and Barley Research Workers’ Meet. (Photo: Courtesy of ICAR-IIWBR)
Gyanendra Pratap Singh (center), Director of ICAR-IIWBR, presents at the 60th All India Wheat and Barley Research Workers’ Meet. (Photo: Courtesy of ICAR-IIWBR)

The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center’s (CIMMYT) legacy of work with the Indian Centre for Agricultural Research (ICAR) has once again produced more successful collaborations this year. This solid partnership resulted in the release of new varieties poised to bring new, superior yielding, disease-resistant, high-quality wheat varieties suitable for different production environments to Indian farms.

The National Variety Release Committee announced the release of nine new varieties at the 60th All India Wheat and Barley Research Workers’ Virtual Meet on August 23–24, 2021, hosted by the Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research (IIWBR) of ICAR. Of the nine new varieties identified, five were selected by national partners from CIMMYT international trials and nurseries.

At the event, ICAR-IIWBR director Gyanendra Pratap (GP) Singh highlighted the impressive growth trajectory of India’s wheat production, estimated at 109.52 million tons of wheat harvested in 2021, a figure which was 86.53 million tons in 2015 and less than 60 million tons in 1991. Singh highlighted that this success is dependent upon the deployment of superior wheat varieties, bridging yield and information gaps, strengthened seed value chain, supportive government policies and, of course, farmer support to adopt new varieties and technologies.

The CIMMYT-derived varieties announced at the meeting include DBW296, DBW327, DBW332, HUW296 and JKW261. A few days earlier, variety PBW869 was released by the Punjab Agricultural University for growing in Punjab State under conservation agriculture practices.

“An innovative and powerful feature of ICAR-CIMMYT collaboration has been the introduction of long-term (10-month) rotational involvement of Indian young scientists in CIMMYTs breeding program at Mexico as well as in wheat blast screening in Bolivia,” said Arun Joshi, CIMMYT Regional Representative for Asia and Managing Director, Borlaug Institute for South Asia (BISA). “In this way, the breeding program of CIMMYT is an excellent example of joint breeding program with national institutions.”

At the 60th All India Wheat and Barley Research Workers’ Meet, participants highlighted new varieties, production growth and strengthened collaboration. (Photo: CIMMYT)
At the 60th All India Wheat and Barley Research Workers’ Meet, participants highlighted new varieties, production growth and strengthened collaboration. (Photo: CIMMYT)

Beyond expectations

In addition to these important new wheat varieties, some CIMMYT-derived wheat varieties that were released in recent years have now been deemed suitable for regions beyond their initial region of cultivation, showing wide adaptation and yield stability.

Wheat variety DBW222, released in 2020 for the northwestern plain zone, has now been deemed suitable for cultivation in the northeastern plain zone. Similarly, DBW187, which was initially released for the northeastern plain zone, and then for northwestern plain zone as well for early sowing, is now also extended for sowing in the central zone, together representing 25 million hectares of the 31 million hectares of wheat grown in India.

“Farmers prefer these types of varieties that give them flexibility during sowing time, and have high, stable yields, and disease resistance,” GP Singh said at the meeting.

A major achievement discussed at this year’s event was that three of the new varieties — DBW187, DBW303 and DBW222 — achieved record-high demand in Breeders Seed Indent, with first, second and seventh ranks, respectively. This is a reflection and indirect measure of popularity and demand for a variety. IIWBR’s innovative strategy to implement pre-release seed multiplication and create demand for seeds from new varieties has led to a faster turnover of improved varieties.

According to Ravi Singh, Distinguished Scientist and Head of Global Wheat Improvement at CIMMYT, the collaborators are “further expanding our partnership through the support from the Accelerating Genetic Gains in Maize and Wheat (AGG) and zinc-mainstreaming projects, to expand testing of larger sets of elite lines in targeted populations of environments of the four South Asian countries where various IIBWR-affiliated institutions shall expand testing in the 2021–22 crop season.” CIMMYT looks forward to continuing ongoing and new collaborations with the ICAR-IIWBR programs to deliver even faster genetic gain for yield and grain zinc levels in new varieties, he explained.

Speaking during the meeting Alison Bentley, Director of CIMMYT’s Global Wheat Program, highlighted the collaborative efforts underway as part of the AGG project to accelerate breeding progress. “Innovations and discoveries in breeding approaches are being rapidly made — with further investment needed — to quickly and equitably accumulate and deploy them to farmers,” she said.

Understanding decision support

Given the very heterogeneous conditions in smallholder agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa, there is a growing policy interest in site-specific extension advice and the use of related digital tools. However, empirical ex ante studies on the design of this type of tools are scant and little is known about their impact on site-specific extension advice.

In partnership with Oyakhilomen Oyinbo and colleagues at KU Leuven, scientists at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) have carried out research to clarify user preferences for tailored nutrient management advice and decision-support tools. The studies also evaluated the impact of targeted fertilizer recommendations enabled by such tools.

Understanding farmers’ adoption

A better understanding of farmers’ and extension agents’ preferences may help to optimize the design of digital decision-support tools.

Oyinbo and co-authors conducted a study among 792 farming households in northern Nigeria, to examine farmers’ preferences for maize intensification in the context of site-specific extension advice using digital tools.

Overall, farmers were favorably disposed to switch from general fertilizer use recommendations to targeted nutrient management recommendations for maize intensification enabled by decision-support tools. This lends credence to the inclusion of digital tools in agricultural extension. The study also showed that farmers have heterogeneous preferences for targeted fertilizer recommendations, depending on their resources, sensitivity to risk and access to services.

The authors identified two groups of farmers with different preference patterns: a first group described as “strong potential adopters of site-specific extension recommendations for more intensified maize production” and a second group as “weak potential adopters.” While the two groups of farmers are willing to accept some yield variability for a higher average yield, the trade-off is on average larger for the first group, who have more resources and are less sensitive to risk.

The author recommended that decision-support tools include information on the riskiness of expected investment returns and flexibility in switching between low- and high-risk recommendations. This design improvement will help farmers to make better informed decisions.

Community leaders talk to researchers in one of the villages in norther Nigeria which took part in the study. (Photo: Oyakhilomen Oyinbo)
Community leaders talk to researchers in one of the villages in norther Nigeria which took part in the study. (Photo: Oyakhilomen Oyinbo)
Members of the survey team participate in a training session at Bayero University Kano, Nigeria. (Photo: Oyakhilomen Oyinbo)
Members of the survey team participate in a training session at Bayero University Kano, Nigeria. (Photo: Oyakhilomen Oyinbo)
One of the sites of nutrient omission trials, used during the development phase of the Nutrient Expert tool in Nigeria. (Photo: Oyakhilomen Oyinbo)
One of the sites of nutrient omission trials, used during the development phase of the Nutrient Expert tool in Nigeria. (Photo: Oyakhilomen Oyinbo)

Extension agents go digital

While farmers are the ultimate recipients of extension advice, extension agents are most often the actual users of decision-support tools. In another study, the authors provided ex ante insights on the potential uptake of nutrient management decision-support tools and the specific design features that are more (or less) appealing to extension agents in the maize belt of northern Nigeria.

Using data from a discrete choice experiment, the study showed that extension agents were generally willing to accept the use of digital decision-support tools for site‐specific fertilizer recommendations. While extension agents in the sample preferred tools with a more user‐friendly interface that required less time to generate an output, the authors also found substantial preference heterogeneity for other design features. Some extension agents cared more about the outputs, such as information accuracy and level of detail, while others prioritized practical features such as the tool’s platform, language or interface.

According to the authors, accounting for such variety of preferences into the design of decision-support tools may facilitate their adoption by extension agents and, in turn, enhance their impact in farmars’ agricultural production decisions.

Interface of the Nutrient Expert mobile app, locally calibrated for maize farmers in Nigeria.
Interface of the Nutrient Expert mobile app, locally calibrated for maize farmers in Nigeria.

Impact of digital tools

Traditional extension systems in sub-Saharan African countries, including Nigeria, often provide general fertilizer use recommendations which do not account for the substantial variation in production conditions. Such blanket recommendations are typically accompanied by point estimates of expected agronomic responses and associated economic returns, but they do not provide any information on the variability of the expected returns associated with output price risk.

Policymakers need a better understanding of how new digital agronomy tools for tailored recommendations affect the performance of smallholder farms in developing countries.

To contribute to the nascent empirical literature on this topic, Oyinbo and colleagues evaluated the impact of a nutrient management decision-support tool for maize – Nutrient Expert — on fertilizer use, management practices, yields and net revenues. The authors also evaluated the impacts of providing information about variability in expected investment returns.

To provide rigorous evidence, the authors conducted a three-year randomized controlled trial among 792 maize-producing households in northern Nigeria. The trial included two treatment groups who are exposed to site-specific fertilizer recommendations through decision-support tools — one with and another one without additional information on variability in expected returns — and a control group who received general fertilizer use recommendations.

Overall, the use of nutrient management decision-support tools resulted in greater fertilizer investments and better grain yields compared with controls. Maize grain yield increased by 19% and net revenue increased by 14% after two years of the interventions. Fertilizer investments only increased significantly among the farmers who received additional information on the variability in expected investment returns.

The findings suggest including site-specific decision support tools into extension programming and related policy interventions has potential benefits on maize yields and food security, particularly when such tools also supply information on the distribution of expected returns to given investment recommendations.

The research-for-development community has tried different approaches to optimize fertilizer recommendations. In Nigeria, there are several tools available to generate location-specific fertilizer recommendations, including Nutrient Expert. As part of the Taking Maize Agronomy to Scale in Africa (TAMASA) project, CIMMYT has been working on locally calibrated versions of this tool for maize farmers in Ethiopia, Nigeria and Tanzania. The development was led by a project team incorporating scientists from the African Plant Nutrition Institute (APNI), CIMMYT and local development partners in each country.

Next steps

Some studies have shown that dis-adoption of seemingly profitable technologies — such as fertilizer in sub-Saharan Africa — is quite common, especially when initial returns fall short of expectations or net utility is negative, producing a disappointment effect.

In the context of emerging digital decision-support tools for well-targeted fertilizer use recommendations, it remains unclear whether farmers’ initial input use responses and the associated economic returns affect their subsequent responses — and whether the disappointment effect can be attenuated through provision of information about uncertainty in expected returns.

Using our three-year randomized controlled trial and the associated panel dataset, researchers are now working on documenting the third-year responses of farmers to site-specific agronomic advice conditional on the second-year responses. Specifically, they seek to better document whether providing farmers with information about seasonal variability in expected investment returns can reduce possible disappointment effects associated with their initial uptake of site-specific agronomic advice and, in a way, limit dis-adoption of fertilizer.

Cover photo: A farmer shows maize growing in his field, in one of the communities in northern Nigeria where research took place. (Photo: Oyakhilomen Oyinbo)

Agricultural scientist Balwinder Singh awarded ‘Alumnus of the Year’ by a prestigious Australian university

The Indian researcher leads CIMMYT’s environmental analytics work in South Asia, combining field experimentation, participatory engagement and cropping systems modelling to address the region’s productivity and sustainability challenges in cereal systems.

Charles Sturt University (CSU) awarded him with the 2021 Alumnus of the Year title in Professional Achievement (Research) as part of its Foundation Day celebrations on July 21.

Read more: https://www.sbs.com.au/language/english/audio/agricultural-scientist-balwinder-singh-awarded-alumnus-of-the-year-by-a-prestigious-australian-university

Building resilient and sustainable irrigation for food security in Nepal

An irrigation canal in Nepal. (Photo: Jitendra Raj Bajracharya/ICIMOD)
An irrigation canal in Nepal. (Photo: Jitendra Raj Bajracharya/ICIMOD)

In Nepal, agriculture contributes to a third of gross domestic product and employs about 80% of the rural labor force. The rural population is comprised mostly of smallholder farmers whose level of income from agricultural production is low by international standards and the countrys agricultural sector has become vulnerable to erratic monsoon rains. Farmers often experience unreliable rainfall and droughts that threaten their crop yields and are not resilient to climate change and water-induced hazard. This requires a rapid update of the sustainable irrigation development in Nepal. The Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia (CSISA) Nepal COVID Response and Resilience short-term project puts emphasis on identifying and prioritizing entry points to build more efficient, reliable and flexible water services to farmers by providing a fundamental irrigation development assessment and framework at local, district and provincial levels.

Digital groundwater monitoring system and assessment of water use options

Digital system of groundwater data collection, monitoring and representation will be piloted with the government of Nepal to facilitate multi-stakeholder cooperation to provide enabling environments for inclusive irrigation development and COVID-19 response. When boosting the irrigation development, monitoring is fundamental to ensure sustainability. In addition, spatially targeted, ex-ante assessments of the potential benefits of irrigation interventions provide insights by applying machine-learning analytics and constructing data-driven models for yield and profitability responses to irrigation. Furthermore, a customized set of integrated hydrological modeling and scenario analyses can further strengthen local, district and provincial level assessment of water resources and how to build resilient and sustainable water services most productively from them.

Toward a systemic framework for sustainable scaling of irrigation in Nepal

Through interview and surveys, the project further builds systemic understanding of the technical, socioeconomic and institutional challenges and opportunities in scaling water access and irrigation technologies. This will contribute to the construction of a comprehensive irrigation development framework, achieved by the collective efforts from multiple stakeholders across different line ministries, levels of government and local stakeholders and water users. Together with the technical assessments and monitoring systems, the end goal is to provide policy guidelines and engage prioritized investments that ensure and accelerate the process of sustainable intensification in irrigation in Nepal.

This blog was originally published in Agrilinks.

The science behind the perfect bread and pasta flour

Have you ever considered that bread and pasta are made from different types of wheat? How about the fact that there are thousands of different wheat products consumed around the world, and each one has unique characteristics and processing requirements?

Scientists at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) understand that the quality of the final product, be it spaghetti, a loaf of sourdough bread or a tandoori naan, is highly dependent on the quality of the grain and the flour it becomes. Every year, CIMMYT analyzes thousands of wheat lines in detail at its Wheat Quality laboratory to determine the nutritional, processing and end-use quality of the grain. In this short video, CIMMYT’s Wheat Quality lab head Maria Itria Ibba explains exactly what they are looking for and how they find it.

First, CIMMYT scientists test the overall grain quality by analyzing grain weight, density, protein content, moisture content and hardness.

The grains are then milled into flour, which is again analyzed for moisture content, protein content, color and protein quality. Protein quality is especially important to determine the end-use for the type of flour, and CIMMYT conducts several tests to determine this characteristic. Bread and durum wheat flours specifically are analyzed for overall protein quality by checking SDS-sedimentation volume. Mixographs are used to assess the flour’s mixing and absorption characteristics, and alveographs are used to measure dough deformation properties.

At the end of the tests, bread wheat flours are transformed into leavened breads and scored based on the loaf’s volume and crumb quality. Durum wheat flour, used to make Italian-style pasta, is scored based on grain quality, flour yellowness, high protein content and protein quality.

CIMMYT’s work ensures that wheat-derived foods produced in developing countries are nutritious, affordable, and maximize profits for each actor in the value chain.

Cover photo: At CIMMYT’s Wheat Quality lab, researchers evaluate how different bread wheat varieties behave at the time of baking. (Photo: CIMMYT)

Tracing the evolution of 50 years of maize research in CGIAR

CGIAR turned 50 in 2021. To mark this anniversary, two independent and highly reputed experts have authored a history of CGIAR maize research from 1970 to 2020.

The authors, Derek Byerlee and Greg Edmeades, focused on four major issues running through the five decades of CGIAR maize research: the diversity of maize-growing target environments, the role of the public and private sectors in maize research in the tropics, the approaches adopted in reaching smallholder farmers in stress-prone rainfed tropical environments with improved technologies, and the need for maintaining strong financial support for international maize research efforts under the CGIAR.

The work of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) and the CGIAR Research Program on Maize (MAIZE) and its partners features prominently in this account. The authors also reviewed the history of maize policy research undertaken by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

The authors bring a unique perspective to the challenging task of tracing the evolution of maize research in CGIAR as both “insiders” and “outsiders.” While they worked as CIMMYT researchers in the 1990s, and later on as reviewers of various projects/programs, both are currently unaffiliated with CIMMYT. Byerlee is affiliated with the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, Washington DC, USA, and Edmeades is an independent scholar based in New Zealand.

“A clear-eyed and unbiased appreciation of our past — both successes and missteps — can only enrich our efforts, make better progress, and effectively meet the challenges of the present and the future,” wrote B.M. Prasanna, director of CIMMYT’s Global Maize Program and of the CGIAR Research Program MAIZE , in the foreword.

According to Prasanna, “The challenges to the maize-dependent smallholders in the tropics are far from over. Optimal, stable and long-term investment in international maize improvement efforts is critical.”

Disclaimer: The CGIAR Research Program MAIZE supported only the review, formatting, and online publication of this document. The findings and conclusions are completely of the authors, and do not necessarily represent the institutional views of CIMMYT, IITA, IFPRI or CGIAR and its partners.

Nitrogen-efficient wheats can provide more food with fewer greenhouse gas emissions, new study shows

An international collaboration has discovered and transferred to elite wheat varieties a wild-grass chromosome segment that causes roots to secrete natural inhibitors of nitrification, offering a way to dial back on heavy fertilizer use for wheat and to reduce the crop’s nitrogen leakage into waterways and air, while maintaining or raising its productivity and grain quality, says a new report in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

Growing wheat varieties endowed with the biological nitrification inhibition (BNI) trait could increase yields in both well-fertilized and nitrogen-poor soils, according to G.V. Subbarao, researcher at the Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences (JIRCAS) and first author of the new report.

“Use of wheat varieties that feature BNI opens the possibility for a more balanced and productive mix of nitrogen nutrients for wheat fields, which are currently dominated by highly-reactive nitrogen compounds that derive in large part from synthetic fertilizers and can harm the environment,” Subbarao said.

The most widely grown food crop on the planet, wheat is consumed by over 2.5 billion people in 89 countries. Nearly a fifth of the world’s nitrogen-based fertilizer is deployed each year to grow wheat but, similar to other major cereals, vegetables, and fruits, the crop takes up less than half of the nitrogen applied.

Much of the remainder is either washed away, contaminating ground waters with nitrate and contributing to algae blooms in lakes and seas, or released into the air, often as nitrous oxide, a greenhouse gas 300 times more potent than carbon dioxide.

The study team first homed in on the chromosome region associated with the strong BNI capacity in the perennial grass species Leymus racemosus and moved it from the grass, using “wide crossing” techniques, into the cultivar Chinese Spring, a wheat landrace often used in genetic studies. From there, they transferred the BNI chromosome sequence into several elite, high-yielding wheat varieties, leading to a near doubling of their BNI capacity, as measured through lab analyses of soil near their roots.

The new wheats — elite varieties from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) into which the BNI trait was cross-bred — greatly reduced the action of soil microbes that usually convert fertilizer and organic nitrogen substances into ecologically-harmful compounds such as nitrous oxide gas, according to Hannes Karwat, a CIMMYT post-doctoral fellow and study co-author.

“The altered soil nitrogen cycle was even reflected in the plants’ metabolism,” Karwat said, “resulting in several responses indicative of a more balanced nitrogen uptake in the plants.”

The scientists involved said BNI-converted wheats in this study also showed greater overall biomass and grain yield, with no negative effects on grain protein levels or breadmaking quality.

“This points the way for farmers to feed future wheat consumers using lower fertilizer dosages and lowering nitrous oxide emissions,” said Masahiro Kishii, a CIMMYT wheat cytogeneticist who contributed to the research. “If we can find new BNI sources, we can develop a second generation of elite wheat varieties that require even less fertilizer and that better deter nitrous oxide emissions.”

A recent PNAS paper by Subbarao and Princeton University scientist Timothy D. Searchinger mentions BNI as a technology that can help foster soils featuring a more even mix of nitrogen sources, including more of the less-chemically-reactive compound ammonium, a condition that can raise crop yields and reduce nitrous oxide emissions.

CIMMYT researcher Masahiro Kishii examines wheat plants in a greenhouse. (Photo: CIMMYT)
CIMMYT researcher Masahiro Kishii examines wheat plants in a greenhouse. (Photo: CIMMYT)

Scale out to slow global warming?

The present study comes just as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has released its Sixth Assessment Report, which among other things states that “
 limiting human-induced global warming 
 requires limiting cumulative CO2 emissions 
 along with strong reductions in other greenhouse gas emissions.”

Globally, 30% of greenhouse gas emissions come from agriculture. BNI-enabled wheat cultivars can play an important role to reduce that footprint. Wheat-growing nations that have committed to the Paris Climate Accord, whose provisions include reducing greenhouse gas emissions 30% by 2050, could be early adopters of the BNI technology, together with China and India, the world’s top two wheat producers, according to Subbarao.

“This work has demonstrated the feasibility of introducing BNI-controlling chromosome segments into modern wheats, without disrupting their yields or quality,” said Subbarao. “To realize the technology’s full potential, we need to transfer the BNI feature into many elite varieties adapted to diverse wheat growing areas and to assess their yield in many farm settings and with varying levels of soil pH, fertilization and water use.”

A project to establish nitrogen-efficient wheat production systems in the Indo-Gangetic Plains using BNI has recently been approved by Japan and is under way, with the collaboration of JIRCAS, the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), and the Borlaug Institute of South Asia (BISA). Under the project, BNI-converted wheat lines developed from JIRCAS-CIMMYT partnerships will be tested in India and the BNI trait transferred to popular national wheat varieties.

“The BNI-technology is also featured in Green Technology, a Japanese government policy document for moving towards a zero-carbon economy,” said Osamu Koyama, President of JIRCAS, which has also posted a note about the new PNAS study. JIRCAS and CGIAR BNI research is co-funded by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries of Japan.

“Adaptation and mitigation solutions such as BNI, which help lessen the footprint of food production systems, will play a large role in CGIAR research-for-development, as part of One CGIAR Initiatives starting in 2022,” said Bram Govaerts, CIMMYT Director General.


RELATED RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS:

Enlisting wild grass genes to combat nitrification in wheat farming: A nature-based solution

INTERVIEW OPPORTUNITIES:

Hannes Karwat – Postdoctoral Fellow, Nitrogen Use Efficiency, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT)

Masahiro Kishii – Wheat Cytogenetics, Wide Crossing, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT)

Victor Kommerell – Program Manager, CGIAR Research Program Wheat (WHEAT)

FOR MORE INFORMATION, OR TO ARRANGE INTERVIEWS, CONTACT THE MEDIA TEAM:

Rodrigo Ordóñez, Communications Manager, CIMMYT. r.ordonez@cgiar.org, +52 (55) 5804 2004 ext. 1167.

Can Uganda attain zero-hunger?

Uganda is one of the fastest economically growing nations in sub-Saharan Africa and is in the midst of socio-economic transition. Over the past two decades the country’s GDP has expanded, on average, by more than 6% each year, with per capita GDP reaching $710 in 2019. Researchers project that this will continue to rise at a rate of 5.6% each year for the next decade, reaching approximately $984 by the year 2031.

This growth is mirrored by a rising population and rapid urbanization within the country. In 2019, 24.4% of the Uganda’s 44.3 million citizens were living in urban areas. By 2030, population is projected to rise to 58-61 million, 31% of whom are expected to live in towns and cities.

“Changes in population, urbanization and GDP growth rate all affect the dietary intake pattern of a country,” says Khondoker Mottaleb, an economist at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT). “Economic and demographic changes will have significant impacts on the agricultural sector, which will be challenged to produce and supply more and better food at affordable prices.”

This could leave Uganda in a precarious position.

In a new study, Mottaleb and a team of collaborators project Uganda’s future food demand, and the potential implications for achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal of zero hunger by 2030.

The authors assess the future demand for major food items, using information from 8,424 households collected through three rounds of Uganda’s Living Standards Measurement Study — Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA). They focus on nationwide demand for traditional foods like matooke (cooking banana), cassava and sweet potato, as well as cereals like maize, wheat and rice — consumption of which has been rising alongside incomes and urbanization.

A conceptual framework of changing food demand in the Global South. (Graphic: CIMMYT)

The study findings confirm that with increases in income and demographic changes, the demand for these food items will increase drastically. In 2018, aggregate consumption was 3.3 million metric tons (MMT) of matooke, 4.7 MMT of cassava and sweet potato, 1.97 MMT of maize and coarse grains, and 0.94 MMT of wheat and rice. Using the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) estimation approach, the authors show that in 2030 demand could be as high as 8.1 MMT for matooke, 10.5 MMT for cassava and sweet potato, 9.5 MT for maize and coarse grains, and 4 MMT for wheat and rice.

Worryingly, Mottaleb and his team explain that while demand for all the items examined in the study increases, the overall yield growth rate for major crops is stagnating as a result of land degradation, climate extremes and rural out-migration. For example, the yield growth rate for matooke has reduced from +0.21% per year from 1962-1989 to -0.90% from 1990-2019.

As such, the authors call for increased investment in Uganda’s agricultural sector to enhance domestic production capacity, meet the growing demand for food outlined in the study, improve the livelihoods of resource-poor farmers, and eliminate hunger.

Read the full article, Projecting food demand in 2030: Can Uganda attain the zero hunger goal?

New CIMMYT maize hybrids available from Latin America breeding program

The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) is offering a new set of elite, improved maize hybrids to partners for commercialization in the tropical lowlands of Latin America and similar agro-ecological zones. National agricultural research systems (NARS) and seed companies are invited to apply for licenses to commercialize these new hybrids, in order to bring the benefits of the improved seed to farming communities. In some countries, depending on the applicable regulatory framework for commercial maize seed, successful applicants may first need to sponsor the products through the national registration / release process prior to commercialization.

The deadline to submit applications to be considered during the first round of allocations is September 17, 2021. Applications received after that deadline will be considered during the following round of product allocations.

Information about the newly available CIMMYT maize hybrids from the Latin America breeding program, application instructions and other relevant material is available in the CIMMYT Maize Product Catalog and in the links provided below.

Product Profile Newly available CIMMYT hybrids Basic traits Nice-to-have / Emerging traits Trial summary
Latin America Product Profile 1A

(LatAM-PP1A)

CIM19LAPP1A-11 Early-maturing, white, high-yielding, drought tolerant, resistant to MLB, TSC and ear rots FSR, GLS Appendix 1
CIM19LAPP1A-13

 

CIMMYT Latin America Stage 4 and Stage 5 Trials: Results of the 2019 and 2020 Trials and Product Announcement

Appendix 1: CIMMYT maize hybrids available under LatAM-PP1A

Appendix 2: Information on Latin America trial locations and management

Principles and Procedures for Acquisition and use of CIMMYT maize hybrids and OPVs for commercialization

Applications must be accompanied by a proposed commercialization plan for each product being requested. Applications may be submitted online via the CIMMYT Maize Licensing Portal in English or Spanish.

APPLY FOR A LICENSE

Alternatively, applications may be submitted via email to GMP-CIMMYT@cgiar.org using the PDF forms available for download at the links below. Each applicant will need to complete one copy of Form A for their organization, then for each hybrid being requested a separate copy of Form B. (Please be sure to use these current versions of the application forms.)

FORM A – Application for CIMMYT Improved Maize Product Allocation (also available in Spanish: FORMATO A – Solicitud para asignaciĂłn de productos mejorados de maĂ­z del CIMMYT)

FORM B – Application for CIMMYT Improved Maize Product Allocation (also available in Spanish: FORMATO B – Solicitud para asignaciĂłn de productos mejorados de maĂ­z del CIMMYT)

 

Seed giants must collaborate or be dwarfed by threat of climate change

Wheat leaves showing symptoms of heat stress. (Photo: CIMMYT) For more information, see CIMMYT's Wheat Doctor: http://wheatdoctor.cimmyt.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=84&Itemid=43&lang=en. Photo credit: CIMMYT.
Wheat leaves showing symptoms of heat stress. (Photo: CIMMYT)
For more information, see CIMMYT’s Wheat Doctor: http://wheatdoctor.cimmyt.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=84&Itemid=43&lang=en.
Photo credit: CIMMYT.

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed vast inequalities when it comes to food security. But there is an even larger and more concerning crisis waiting for us: global food shortages caused by climate change.

According to the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, total global warming is likely to rise around 1.5 degrees Celsius within the next two decades.

Nobody knows when or how hard it will hit, but we inch closer each year with new temperature records, the spread of pests, and emerging crop diseases. We are already seeing the beginning of this future crisis. Climate-induced food price hikes have caused political turmoil in the Middle East, while climate-related disasters have been linked with mass human migration in South Asia.

Every seed company and crop research center worldwide is preoccupied with the race to breed hardier crops to keep pace with the demands of a growing population as circumstances become increasingly challenging. But the truth is, this is a relay race, and yet the crop research field is running 100-meter sprints in different places at different times.

For every scientific advance, other areas of crop research go under-resourced and are technology poor, with asymmetries in research investment creating islands of knowledge that are disparate and disconnected.  These research asymmetries hold back crop improvement as a whole, contributing to climate-induced crop failure and the political turmoil that ensues when staple foods become scarce.

While it is common for academic crop scientists to share ideas and collaborate with industry, it is far less typical for major seed companies to cooperate with each other.

If the public and private sectors are to have any chance of outrunning climate change, industry must shift toward investing in mutually beneficial research and development to pool resources and build on every gain, in the interests of the whole.

In an unprecedented first step that reveals just how much pressure the sector feels about the daunting task ahead, some of the crop industry’s main players and competitors — including Syngenta, BASF, Corteva and KWS — recently shared their insights into the gaps in existing crop science.

The shortcomings identified that hold back the crop industry from addressing the looming food crisis have three features in common. They are all under-represented in scientific literature, are likely to boost productivity across a wide range of crops and environments, and crucially, the research is fundamental enough to be “pre-competitive,” or valuable without jeopardizing individual business outcomes.

For example, although scientists have made progress towards improving the potential of crucial processes in crop development, like photosynthesis, other gaps in knowledge must be filled to ensure that this translates into improved yield, especially under unstable environments.

Such research is critical to ensuring reliable harvests across a range of crops, and can be conducted without infringing the intellectual property or proprietary technology of any single company.

However, accessing research funding can be surprisingly difficult. Public research budgets are shrinking, their funds are at risk of being re-appropriated, and collaboration is not the industry standard.

New funding models, such as public-private partnerships, can collectively address knowledge gaps to avoid potential catastrophes for society at large.

This approach has already proven fruitful. The public-private consortium “Crops of the Future Collaborative” brings competitors together to jointly fund research into the characteristics crops need to adapt to a changing future.

Industry matched the Collaborative’s initial $10 million investment by the Foundation for Food & Agriculture Research to work on corn that survives in drought conditions and leafy greens that are resistant to pests.

Conducting this research jointly drastically improves crop efficiency and the technological toolbox available to breeders and other crop scientists, passing the baton in the race towards a food secure future.

Increasing the global food supply through research and development is the most achievable and sure approach to avoid a global food crisis, and comes with historically high returns on investment. Furthermore, scientists can tap into a global infrastructure of researchers across public and private sectors, international organizations, and the millions of farmers worldwide who have willingly collaborated over the last half century to provide enough food for all.

Failure to collaborate will ultimately result in unsustainable food systems, which not only renders seed companies obsolete but threatens a prerequisite of civilization: food security.

The private sector has the knowledge and resources to redefine the race. Rather than competing against one another, the crop industry must join forces to compete instead with climate change. And it is a contest we can only win if all players work together.

This op-ed was originally published on the Des Moines Register.

Matthew Reynolds is a distinguished scientist with the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center. Jeffrey L. Rosichan is a director with Foundation for Food & Agriculture Research. Leon Broers is a board member with KWS SAAT SE & Co. KGaA.

When it comes to maize variety choices, can farmers have it all?

Florence Ochieng harvests green maize on her 105-acre family farm near Kitale, Kenya. (Photo: P. Lowe/CIMMYT)
Farmer Florence Ochieng harvests green maize on her 105-acre family farm near Kitale, Kenya. (Photo: P. Lowe/CIMMYT)

Smallholder farmers are often torn between maize seed varieties that have multiple desirable traits. Since they cannot always have it all — there are limits on what traits breeders can integrate in any given variety — they face the dilemma of which seed to pick at the expense of an equally desirable option.

Trait preference trade-offs among maize farmers in western Kenya, published in March 2021, provides evidence of this prioritization and seeks to help breeders, seed companies and other stakeholders set priorities that account for farmers’ needs and their willingness to make preference trade-offs. The researchers evaluated responses from 1,288 male and female farmers in the mid-altitude maize growing areas of western Kenya.

The study argues that farmer-centered seed systems (including seed companies) should be guided by farmers’ priorities and reflect a greater understanding of the tradeoffs these farmers make between traits and varieties. They have two key options, according to Paswel Marenya, the study’s lead researcher and adoption and impact assessment economist at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT). The first involves prioritizing the critical must-have traits in any one variety. The second option entails having multiple varieties that meet diverse farmers’ needs and then segmenting the seed markets.

While Marenya argues that prioritization is important for balancing commercial realities and farmers’ diverse interests, he is quick to add that “market segmentation has limits imposed by the commercial viability of each segment.”

“At every turn, from breeding to farmer varietal preferences to seed company considerations, there have to be trade-offs, as one cannot keep segmenting the market forever,” Marenya said. “At some point, you must stop and choose what traits to prioritize in your breeding or commercially viable market segments, based on the most pressing challenges already identified.”

CIMMYT researchers conduct interviews in Kenya to determine farmer preferences for maize traits. (Photo: CIMMYT)

Differences in tradeoffs among men and women

From a gender lens, the paper reveals an obvious difference in tradeoffs made by men and women. Whereas the two groups desire some similar traits in their varieties of choice, women seem to be willing to make slightly larger yield sacrifices in favor of tolerance to drought and Striga and good storability. Women also valued good storability over 90-day maturity, while men appeared to place a higher value on the closed tip, a sign of resistance to moisture infiltration which causes grain rotting.

“These results imply that unless the risks of storage or pre-harvest losses are reduced or eliminated, the value of high yielding varieties can be diminished if they are susceptible to production stresses or the grain characteristics make them susceptible to storage pests,” the study states.

The study indicates that farmers may adopt stress tolerant and high yielding varieties with somewhat low storability only if advanced grain storage technologies are available.

Until then, the suggestion to policy makers responsible for maize breeding is to use “multi-criteria evaluations” of new varieties to ensure that traits for stress tolerance and storability are given optimal weighting in variety release decisions.

Additionally, information about farmer preferences should be fed back to breeding programs in national and international institutes responsible for maize genetic improvement.