Climate change threatens to reduce global crop production, and poor people in tropical environments will be hit the hardest. More than 90% of CIMMYTâs work relates to climate change, helping farmers adapt to shocks while producing more food, and reduce emissions where possible. Innovations include new maize and wheat varieties that withstand drought, heat and pests; conservation agriculture; farming methods that save water and reduce the need for fertilizer; climate information services; and index-based insurance for farmers whose crops are damaged by bad weather. CIMMYT is an important contributor to the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security.
Rice-wheat cropping rotations are the major agri-food system of the Indo-Gangetic Plains of South Asia, occupying the region known as the âfood basketâ of India. The continuous rice-wheat farming system is deceptively productive, however, under conventional management practices.
Over-exploitation of resources leaves little doubt that this system is unsustainable, evidenced by the rapid decline in soil and water resources, and environmental quality. Furthermore, continuous cultivation of the same two crops over the last five decades has allowed certain weed species to adapt and proliferate. This adversely affects resource-use efficiency and crop productivity, and has proven to negatively influence wheat production in the Western Indo-Gangetic Plains under conventional wheat management systems.
Studies suggest weed infestations could reduce wheat yields by 50-100% across the South Asian Indo-Gangetic Plains. Globally, yield losses from weeds reach 40%, which is more than the effects of diseases, insects, and pests combined.
Herbicides are not just expensive and environmentally hazardous, but this method of chemical control is becoming less reliable as some weeds become resistant to an increasing number common herbicides. Considering the food security implications of weed overgrowth, weed management is becoming increasingly important in future cropping systems.
How can weeds be managed sustainably?
Climate-smart agriculture-based management practices are becoming a viable and sustainable alternative to conventional rice-wheat cropping systems across South Asia, leading to better resource conservation and yield stability. In addition to zero-tillage and crop residue retention, crop diversification, precise water and nutrient management, and timing of interventions are all important indicators of climate-smart agriculture.
In a recently published 8-year study, scientists observed weed density and diversity under six different management scenarios with varying conditions. Conditions ranged from conventional, tillage-based rice-wheat system with flood irrigation (scenario one), to zero-tillage-based maize-wheat-mung bean systems with subsurface drip irrigation (scenario 6). Each scenario increased in their climate-smart agriculture characteristics all the way to fully climate-smart systems.
At the end of 8 years, scenario six had the lowest weed density, saw the most abundant species decrease dramatically, and seven weed species vanish entirely. Scenario one, with conventional rice-wheat systems with tillage and flooding, experienced the highest weed density and infestation. This study highlights the potential of climate-smart agriculture as a promising solution for weed suppression in northwestern India.
In Nepal, agriculture contributes to a third of gross domestic product and employs about 80% of the rural labor force. The rural population is comprised mostly of smallholder farmers whose level of income from agricultural production is low by international standards and the country‘s agricultural sector has become vulnerable to erratic monsoon rains. Farmers often experience unreliable rainfall and droughts that threaten their crop yields and are not resilient to climate change and water-induced hazard. This requires a rapid update of the sustainable irrigation development in Nepal. The Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia (CSISA) Nepal COVID Response and Resilience short-term project puts emphasis on identifying and prioritizing entry points to build more efficient, reliable and flexible water services to farmers by providing a fundamental irrigation development assessment and framework at local, district and provincial levels.
Digital groundwater monitoring system and assessment of water use options
Digital system of groundwater data collection, monitoring and representation will be piloted with the government of Nepal to facilitate multi-stakeholder cooperation to provide enabling environments for inclusive irrigation development and COVID-19 response. When boosting the irrigation development, monitoring is fundamental to ensure sustainability. In addition, spatially targeted, ex-ante assessments of the potential benefits of irrigation interventions provide insights by applying machine-learning analytics and constructing data-driven models for yield and profitability responses to irrigation. Furthermore, a customized set of integrated hydrological modeling and scenario analyses can further strengthen local, district and provincial level assessment of water resources and how to build resilient and sustainable water services most productively from them.
Toward a systemic framework for sustainable scaling of irrigation in Nepal
Through interview and surveys, the project further builds systemic understanding of the technical, socioeconomic and institutional challenges and opportunities in scaling water access and irrigation technologies. This will contribute to the construction of a comprehensive irrigation development framework, achieved by the collective efforts from multiple stakeholders across different line ministries, levels of government and local stakeholders and water users. Together with the technical assessments and monitoring systems, the end goal is to provide policy guidelines and engage prioritized investments that ensure and accelerate the process of sustainable intensification in irrigation in Nepal.
An international collaboration has discovered a biological nitrification inhibition (BNI) trait that, when transferred to growing wheat varieties, can reduce the use of fertilizers for wheat crops and increase yields.
An international collaboration has discovered and transferred to elite wheat varieties a wild-grass chromosome segment that causes roots to secrete natural inhibitors of nitrification, offering a way to dial back on heavy fertilizer use for wheat and to reduce the cropâs nitrogen leakage into waterways and air, while maintaining or raising its productivity and grain quality, says a new report in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.
Growing wheat varieties endowed with the biological nitrification inhibition (BNI) trait could increase yields in both well-fertilized and nitrogen-poor soils, according to G.V. Subbarao, researcher at the Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences (JIRCAS) and first author of the new report.
âUse of wheat varieties that feature BNI opens the possibility for a more balanced and productive mix of nitrogen nutrients for wheat fields, which are currently dominated by highly-reactive nitrogen compounds that derive in large part from synthetic fertilizers and can harm the environment,â Subbarao said.
The most widely grown food crop on the planet, wheat is consumed by over 2.5 billion people in 89 countries. Nearly a fifth of the worldâs nitrogen-based fertilizer is deployed each year to grow wheat but, similar to other major cereals, vegetables, and fruits, the crop takes up less than half of the nitrogen applied.
Much of the remainder is either washed away, contaminating ground waters with nitrate and contributing to algae blooms in lakes and seas, or released into the air, often as nitrous oxide, a greenhouse gas 300 times more potent than carbon dioxide.
The study team first homed in on the chromosome region associated with the strong BNI capacity in the perennial grass species Leymus racemosus and moved it from the grass, using âwide crossingâ techniques, into the cultivar Chinese Spring, a wheat landrace often used in genetic studies. From there, they transferred the BNI chromosome sequence into several elite, high-yielding wheat varieties, leading to a near doubling of their BNI capacity, as measured through lab analyses of soil near their roots.
The new wheats â elite varieties from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) into which the BNI trait was cross-bred â greatly reduced the action of soil microbes that usually convert fertilizer and organic nitrogen substances into ecologically-harmful compounds such as nitrous oxide gas, according to Hannes Karwat, a CIMMYT post-doctoral fellow and study co-author.
âThe altered soil nitrogen cycle was even reflected in the plantsâ metabolism,â Karwat said, âresulting in several responses indicative of a more balanced nitrogen uptake in the plants.â
The scientists involved said BNI-converted wheats in this study also showed greater overall biomass and grain yield, with no negative effects on grain protein levels or breadmaking quality.
âThis points the way for farmers to feed future wheat consumers using lower fertilizer dosages and lowering nitrous oxide emissions,â said Masahiro Kishii, a CIMMYT wheat cytogeneticist who contributed to the research. âIf we can find new BNI sources, we can develop a second generation of elite wheat varieties that require even less fertilizer and that better deter nitrous oxide emissions.â
A recent PNAS paper by Subbarao and Princeton University scientist Timothy D. Searchinger mentions BNI as a technology that can help foster soils featuring a more even mix of nitrogen sources, including more of the less-chemically-reactive compound ammonium, a condition that can raise crop yields and reduce nitrous oxide emissions.
CIMMYT researcher Masahiro Kishii examines wheat plants in a greenhouse. (Photo: CIMMYT)
Scale out to slow global warming?
The present study comes just as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has released its Sixth Assessment Report, which among other things states that â⊠limiting human-induced global warming ⊠requires limiting cumulative CO2 emissions ⊠along with strong reductions in other greenhouse gas emissions.â
Globally, 30% of greenhouse gas emissions come from agriculture. BNI-enabled wheat cultivars can play an important role to reduce that footprint. Wheat-growing nations that have committed to the Paris Climate Accord, whose provisions include reducing greenhouse gas emissions 30% by 2050, could be early adopters of the BNI technology, together with China and India, the worldâs top two wheat producers, according to Subbarao.
âThis work has demonstrated the feasibility of introducing BNI-controlling chromosome segments into modern wheats, without disrupting their yields or quality,â said Subbarao. âTo realize the technologyâs full potential, we need to transfer the BNI feature into many elite varieties adapted to diverse wheat growing areas and to assess their yield in many farm settings and with varying levels of soil pH, fertilization and water use.â
A project to establish nitrogen-efficient wheat production systems in the Indo-Gangetic Plains using BNI has recently been approved by Japan and is under way, with the collaboration of JIRCAS, the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), and the Borlaug Institute of South Asia (BISA). Under the project, BNI-converted wheat lines developed from JIRCAS-CIMMYT partnerships will be tested in India and the BNI trait transferred to popular national wheat varieties.
âAdaptation and mitigation solutions such as BNI, which help lessen the footprint of food production systems, will play a large role in CGIAR research-for-development, as part of One CGIAR Initiatives starting in 2022,â said Bram Govaerts, CIMMYT Director General.
As extreme weather conditions increasingly threaten the global wheat supply, CIMMYTÂ head of wheat physiology Matthew Reynolds discusses the importance of developing drought-resistant crops through breeding programs to keep bread on the table.
Wheat leaves showing symptoms of heat stress. (Photo: CIMMYT) For more information, see CIMMYT’s Wheat Doctor: http://wheatdoctor.cimmyt.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=84&Itemid=43&lang=en. Photo credit: CIMMYT.
The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed vast inequalities when it comes to food security. But there is an even larger and more concerning crisis waiting for us: global food shortages caused by climate change.
Nobody knows when or how hard it will hit, but we inch closer each year with new temperature records, the spread of pests, and emerging crop diseases. We are already seeing the beginning of this future crisis. Climate-induced food price hikes have caused political turmoil in the Middle East, while climate-related disasters have been linked with mass human migration in South Asia.
Every seed company and crop research center worldwide is preoccupied with the race to breed hardier crops to keep pace with the demands of a growing population as circumstances become increasingly challenging. But the truth is, this is a relay race, and yet the crop research field is running 100-meter sprints in different places at different times.
For every scientific advance, other areas of crop research go under-resourced and are technology poor, with asymmetries in research investment creating islands of knowledge that are disparate and disconnected. Â These research asymmetries hold back crop improvement as a whole, contributing to climate-induced crop failure and the political turmoil that ensues when staple foods become scarce.
While it is common for academic crop scientists to share ideas and collaborate with industry, it is far less typical for major seed companies to cooperate with each other.
If the public and private sectors are to have any chance of outrunning climate change, industry must shift toward investing in mutually beneficial research and development to pool resources and build on every gain, in the interests of the whole.
In an unprecedented first step that reveals just how much pressure the sector feels about the daunting task ahead, some of the crop industryâs main players and competitors â including Syngenta, BASF, Corteva and KWS â recently shared their insights into the gaps in existing crop science.
The shortcomings identified that hold back the crop industry from addressing the looming food crisis have three features in common. They are all under-represented in scientific literature, are likely to boost productivity across a wide range of crops and environments, and crucially, the research is fundamental enough to be âpre-competitive,â or valuable without jeopardizing individual business outcomes.
For example, although scientists have made progress towards improving the potential of crucial processes in crop development, like photosynthesis, other gaps in knowledge must be filled to ensure that this translates into improved yield, especially under unstable environments.
Such research is critical to ensuring reliable harvests across a range of crops, and can be conducted without infringing the intellectual property or proprietary technology of any single company.
However, accessing research funding can be surprisingly difficult. Public research budgets are shrinking, their funds are at risk of being re-appropriated, and collaboration is not the industry standard.
New funding models, such as public-private partnerships, can collectively address knowledge gaps to avoid potential catastrophes for society at large.
This approach has already proven fruitful. The public-private consortium âCrops of the Future Collaborativeâ brings competitors together to jointly fund research into the characteristics crops need to adapt to a changing future.
Industry matched the Collaborativeâs initial $10 million investment by the Foundation for Food & Agriculture Research to work on corn that survives in drought conditions and leafy greens that are resistant to pests.
Conducting this research jointly drastically improves crop efficiency and the technological toolbox available to breeders and other crop scientists, passing the baton in the race towards a food secure future.
Increasing the global food supply through research and development is the most achievable and sure approach to avoid a global food crisis, and comes with historically high returns on investment. Furthermore, scientists can tap into a global infrastructure of researchers across public and private sectors, international organizations, and the millions of farmers worldwide who have willingly collaborated over the last half century to provide enough food for all.
Failure to collaborate will ultimately result in unsustainable food systems, which not only renders seed companies obsolete but threatens a prerequisite of civilization: food security.
The private sector has the knowledge and resources to redefine the race. Rather than competing against one another, the crop industry must join forces to compete instead with climate change. And it is a contest we can only win if all players work together.
Matthew Reynolds is a distinguished scientist with the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center. Jeffrey L. Rosichan is a director with Foundation for Food & Agriculture Research. Leon Broers is a board member with KWS SAAT SE & Co. KGaA.
As the world turns its attention to the policy-shaping discussions during this weekâs Pre-Summit of the UN Food System Summit, the need for science and innovation to advance the transformation of food, land and water systems is clear.
The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), with its 50-year track record of impact, success and high return on investment, is essential to these efforts.
Our new institutional brochure, Maize and wheat science to sustainably feed the world, links CIMMYTâs mission, vision and excellence in science to the urgent needs of a world where an estimated tenth of the global population â up to 811 million people â are undernourished.
CIMMYT is also a crucial wellspring of response capacity to CGIAR â the largest global, publicly funded research organization scaling solutions for food, land and water system challenges.
Maize and wheat science to sustainably feed the world explains why we do what we do in light of these challenges.
CIMMYT leads maize and wheat research for food systems that deliver affordable, sufficient, and healthy diets produced within planetary boundaries.
Our research is focused on smallholder farmers in low- and middle-income countries and on improving the livelihoods of people who live on less than $2 a day.
CIMMYT science reaches them through innovation hubs, appropriate technologies, sustainable sourcing, and helps to address their needs and challenges through public policy guidance.
Applying high-quality science and strong partnerships, CIMMYT works for a world with healthier and more prosperous people, free from global food crises and with more resilient agri-food systems.
Back-to-back droughts followed by plagues of locusts have pushed over a million people in southern Madagascar to the brink of starvation in recent months. In the worst famine in half a century, villagers have sold their possessions and are eating the locusts, raw cactus fruits, and wild leaves to survive.
Instead of bringing relief, this yearâs rains were accompanied by warm temperatures that created the ideal conditions for infestations of fall armyworm, which destroys mainly maize, one of the main food crops of sub-Saharan Africa.
Drought and famine are not strangers to southern Madagascar, and other areas of eastern Africa, but climate change bringing warmer temperatures is believed to be exacerbating this latest tragedy, according to The Deep South, a new report by the World Bank.
Up to 40% of global food output is lost each year through pests and diseases, according to FAO estimates, while up to 811 million people suffer from hunger. Climate change is one of several factors driving this threat, while trade and travel transport plant pests and pathogens around the world, and environmental degradation facilitates their establishment.
Crop pests and pathogens have threatened food supplies since agriculture began. The Irish potato famine of the late 1840s, caused by late blight disease, killed about one million people. The ancient Greeks and Romans were well familiar with wheat stem rust, which continues to destroy harvests in developing countries.
But recent research on the impact of temperature increases in the tropics caused by climate change has documented an expansion of some crop pests and diseases into more northern and southern latitudes at an average of about 2.7 km a year.
Prevention is critical to confronting such threats, as brutally demonstrated by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on humankind. It is far more cost-effective to protect plants from pests and diseases rather than tackling full-blown emergencies.
One way to protect food production is with pest- and disease-resistant crop varieties, meaning that the conservation, sharing, and use of crop biodiversity to breed resistant varieties is a key component of the global battle for food security.
CGIAR manages a network of publicly-held gene banks around the world that safeguard and share crop biodiversity and facilitate its use in breeding more resistant, climate-resilient and productive varieties. It is essential that this exchange doesnât exacerbate the problem, so CGIAR works with international and national plant health authorities to ensure that material distributed is free of pests and pathogens, following the highest standards and protocols for sharing plant germplasm. The distribution and use of that germplasm for crop improvement is essential for cutting the estimated 540 billion US dollars of losses due to plant diseases annually.
Understanding the relationship between climate change and plant health is key to conserving biodiversity and boosting food production today and for future generations. Human-driven climate change is the challenge of our time. It poses grave threats to agriculture and is already affecting the food security and incomes of small-scale farming households across the developing world.
We need to improve the tools and innovations available to farmers. Rice production is both a driver and victim of climate change. Extreme weather events menace the livelihoods of 144 million smallholder rice farmers. Yet traditional cultivation methods such as flooded paddies contribute approximately 10% of global man-made methane, a potent greenhouse gas. By leveraging rice genetic diversity and improving cultivation techniques we can reduce greenhouse gas emissions, enhance efficiency, and help farmers adapt to future climates.
A farmer in Tanzania stands in front of her maize plot where she grows improved, drought tolerant maize variety TAN 250. (Photo: Anne Wangalachi/CIMMYT)
We also need to be cognizant that gender relationships matter in crop management. A lack of gender perspectives has hindered wider adoption of resistant varieties and practices such as integrated pest management. Collaboration between social and crop scientists to co-design inclusive innovations is essential.
Men and women often value different aspects of crops and technologies. Men may value high yielding disease-resistant varieties, whereas women prioritize traits related to food security, such as early maturity. Incorporating womenâs preferences into a new variety is a question of gender equity and economic necessity. Women produce a significant proportion of the food grown globally. If they had the same access to productive resources as men, such as improved varieties, women could increase yields by 20-30%, which would generate up to a 4% increase in the total agricultural output of developing countries.
Practices to grow healthy crops also need to include environmental considerations. What is known as a One Health Approach starts from the recognition that life is not segmented. All is connected. Rooted in concerns over threats of zoonotic diseases spreading from animals, especially livestock, to humans, the concept has been broadened to encompass agriculture and the environment.
This ecosystem approach combines different strategies and practices, such as minimizing pesticide use. This helps protect pollinators, animals that eat crop pests, and other beneficial organisms.
The challenge is to produce enough food to feed a growing population without increasing agricultureâs negative impacts on the environment, particularly through greenhouse gas emissions and unsustainable farming practices that degrade vital soil and water resources, and threaten biodiversity.
Behavioral and policy change on the part of farmers, consumers, and governments will be just as important as technological innovation to achieve this.
The goal of zero hunger is unattainable without the vibrancy of healthy plants, the source of the food we eat and the air we breathe. The quest for a food secure future, enshrined in the UN Sustainable Development Goals, requires us to combine research and development with local and international cooperation so that efforts led by CGIAR to protect plant health, and increase agricultureâs benefits, reach the communities most in need.
Barbara H. Wells MSc, PhD is the Global Director of Genetic Innovation at the CGIAR and Director General of the International Potato Center. She has worked in senior-executive level in the agricultural and forestry sectors for over 30 years.
We began 2020 with grim news of the COVID-19 pandemic spreading from country to country, wreaking havoc on national economies, causing countless personal tragedies, and putting additional pressure on the livelihoods of the poor and hungry.
The global crisis exposed the enormous vulnerability of our food system.
If we have learned anything from the past year, it is that we need to urgently invest in science for renewed food systems that deliver affordable, sufficient, and healthy diets produced within planetary boundaries.
During this time, the dedication and resilience of the CIMMYT community allowed us to continue making important advances toward that vision.
We hope you enjoy reading our stories and will join us in actively working towards resilience, renewal and transition in our agri-food systems, to ensure that they are strong in the face of current and future crises.
A paper titled “Fields on fire: Alternatives to crop residue burning in India” and published in the prestigious journal Science found that working with the Happy Seederâa machine that cuts and lifts the paddy straw while simultaneously sowing the wheat crop and spreading the cut straw as mulch over fieldsâis not just the least polluting, but also the most scalable solution that can be adopted by farmers en masse.
A graphic shows district-wide distribution of annual greenhouse gas mitigation potential through improved and more efficient fertilizer management in the crop sector of Bangladesh in 2030 and 2050. (Graphic: CIMMYT)
A number of readily-available farming methods could allow Bangladeshâs agriculture sector to decrease its greenhouse gas emissions while increasing productivity, according to a new study by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and partners.
The study, published in Science of the Total Environment, measured the countryâs emissions due to agriculture, and identified and analyzed potential mitigation measures in crop and livestock farming. Pursuing these tactics could be a win-win for farmers and the climate, and the countryâs government should encourage their adoption, the research suggests.
âEstimating the greenhouse gas emissions associated with agricultural production processes â complemented with identifying cost-effective abatement measures, quantifying the mitigation scope of such measures, and developing relevant policy recommendations â helps prioritize mitigation work consistent with the country’s food production and mitigation goals,â said CIMMYT climate scientist Tek Sapkota, who led this work.
To determine Bangladeshâs agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, the researchers analyzed 16,413 and 12,548 datapoints from crops and livestock, respectively, together with associated soil and climatic information. The paper also breaks down the emissions data region by region within the country. This could help Bangladesh’s government prioritize mitigation efforts in the places where they will be the most cost-effective.
âI believe that the scientific information, messages and knowledge generated from this study will be helpful in formulating and implementing the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) process in Bangladesh, the National Action Plan for Reducing Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCPs) and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC),â said Nathu Ram Sarker, director general of the Bangladesh Livestock Research Institute.
Policy implications
Agriculture in Bangladesh is heavily intensified, as the country produces up to three rice crops in a single year. Bangladesh also has the seventh highest livestock density in the world. In all, the greenhouse gas output of agriculture in Bangladesh was 76.79 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2e) in 2014-15, according to the research. This emission is equivalent to the emission from fossil fuel burning by 28 million cars for a year. Â At the going rate, total agricultural emission from Bangladesh are expected to reach 86.87 Mt CO2e by 2030, and 100.44 Mt CO2e by 2050.
By deploying targeted and often readily-available methods, Bangladesh could mitigate 9.51 Mt and 14.21 Mt CO2e from its agriculture sector by 2030 and 2050, respectively, according to the paper. Further, the country can reach three-fourths of these outcomes by using mitigation strategies that also cut costs, a boon for smaller agricultural operations.
Adopting these mitigation strategies can reduce the country’s carbon emissions while contributing to food security and climate resilience in the future. However, realizing the estimated potential emission reductions may require support from the countryâs government.
âAlthough Bangladesh has a primary and justified priority on climate change adaptation, mitigation is also an important national priority. This work will help governmental policy makers to identify and implement effective responses for greenhouse gas mitigation from the agricultural sector, with appropriate extension programs to aid in facilitating adoption by crop and livestock farmers,â said Timothy Krupnik, CIMMYT country representative in Bangladesh and coauthor of the paper.
Mitigation strategies
The research focused on eight crops and four livestock species that make up the vast majority of agriculture in Bangladesh. The crops â potato, wheat, jute, maize, lentils and three different types of rice â collectively cover more than 90% of cultivated land in the nation. Between 64 and 84% of total fertilizer used in Bangladesh is used to cultivate these crops. The paper also focuses on the four major kinds of livestock species in the country: cattle, buffalo, sheep and goats.
For crops, examples of mitigation strategies include alternate wetting and drying in rice (intermittently irrigating and draining rice fields, rather than having them continuously flooded) and improved nutrient use efficiency, particularly for nitrogen. The research shows that better nitrogen management could contribute 60-65% of the total mitigation potential from Bangladeshâs agricultural sector. Other options include adopting strip-tillage and using short duration rice varieties.
For livestock, mitigation strategies include using green fodder supplements, increased concentrate feeding and improved forage/diet management for ruminants. Improved manure storage, separation and aeration is another potential tool to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The mitigation options for livestock would make up 22 and 28% of the total potential emission reductions in the sector by 2030 and 2050, respectively.
The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) is the global leader in publicly-funded maize and wheat research and related farming systems. Headquartered near Mexico City, CIMMYT works with hundreds of partners throughout the developing world to sustainably increase the productivity of maize and wheat cropping systems, thus improving global food security and reducing poverty. CIMMYT is a member of the CGIAR System and leads the CGIAR Research Programs on Maize and Wheat and the Excellence in Breeding Platform. The Center receives support from national governments, foundations, development banks and other public and private agencies. For more information, visit staging.cimmyt.org.
This month smallholder farmers in Myanmarâs central dry zones will be able to access drought-tolerant hybrid maize for the first time. The variety, known as TA5085, was jointly developed by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and Syngenta, and has been commercially registered as ASC 108 by Ayeryarwady Seed in Myanmar. An initial, two-acre seed production pilot by Ayeyarwady Seed resulted in a yield of 1.2 tons per acre.
TA5085 was developed as an International Public Good as part of the decade-long Affordable, Accessible, Asian (âAAAâ) Drought-Tolerant Maize project, a public-private partnership between CIMMYT and Syngenta and funded by the Syngenta Foundation. The project aims to make tropical maize hybrids accessible to Asian smallholders, especially those producing under rain-fed conditions in drought-prone areas.
An ear of the ASC 108 âAAAâ drought-tolerant hybrid maize variety. (Photo: Soe Than/Ayeyarwady Seed)
âAAA maize is not just a product,â said B.S. Vivek, regional maize breeding coordinator and principal scientist at CIMMYT. âThe development of affordable and accessible drought-tolerant maize hybrids helps drive the maize seed market in underserved maize markets in Asia.â
TA5084, the previous iteration of this variety, was first commercialized in central India, where climate change is driving rising temperatures and increasingly erratic rainfall. From 2018 to 2020, TA5084 adoption in the region grew from 900 to 8,000 farmers. In 2020, 120 metric tons of AAA-maize were planted on 6,000 hectares in central India. Farmers who switched to TA5084 earned an average of $100/ha more than those using conventional maize.
âDespite the unprecedented challenges we all faced in 2020, AAA hybrid maize sales more than doubled from the previous year, to 120 tons,â said Herve Thieblemont, head of Seeds2B Asia and Mekong Director at the Syngenta Foundation. âIâm delighted to report that the second country to introduce AAA maize is Myanmar. Our local seed partner Ayeyarwady Seed recently completed the registration and will proceed with the first sales this coming season.â
The AAA initiative is one of the few examples of a public-private partnership delivering International Public Goods benefiting smallholders in central India and now Myanmar. The chosen regions are rainfed and drought-prone. Seed marketing in these regions is considered risky and unpredictable, disincentivizing multinationals and large seed companies from entering the market.
Like many issues besetting contemporary agri-food systems, the question of nitrogen use appears to yield contradictory problems and solutions depending on where you look. Many parts of the globe are experiencing the environmental consequences of excessive and inefficient use of nitrogen fertilizers. Elsewhere nitrogen-poor soils are a hindrance to agricultural productivity.
Addressing these seemingly contradictory issues means ensuring that nitrogen is applied with maximum efficiency across the worldâs croplands. Farmers should be applying as much nitrogen as can be taken up by their crops in any given agroecology. Apply more, and the excess nitrogen leads to nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions â a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) â and other environmental degradation. Apply less, and agricultural potential goes unmet. Given the twin challenges of global climate change and the projected need to increase global food production over 70% by 2050, neither scenario is desirable.
Maize and wheat agri-food systems are at the heart of this dilemma. These staple crops are critical to ensuring the food security of a growing population. They also account for around 35% of global nitrogen fertilizer usage. Tackling the problem first requires an accurate accounting of global N20 emissions from maize and wheat fields, followed by quantification of mitigation potential disaggregated by region. This is the task undertaken by a recent study published in Science of the Total Environment and co-authored by a team of researchers including scientists at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).
âSpatially explicit quantification of N2O emission and mitigation potential helps identify emission hotspots and priority areas for mitigation action through better nitrogen management consistent with location-specific production and environmental goals,â says Tek Sapkota, CIMMYTâs climate scientist and review editor of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)âs sixth assessment report.
A map shows global hotspots for nitrogen emissions linked to maize and wheat production. (Graphic: Tesfaye et al./CIMMYT)
A model approach
Researchers compared N20 emissions estimates produced using four statistical models (Tropical N2O model, CCAF-MOT, IPCC Tier-1 and IPCC Tier-11). They also compared the modelsâ estimates against actual emissions as recorded at 777 globally distributed points. While all four models performed relatively well vis-Ă -vis the empirical measurements, the IPCC Tier-II estimates showed a better relationship to the measured data across both maize and wheat fields and low- and high-emissions scenarios.
Researchers found that, for both maize and wheat, emissions were highest in East and South Asia, as well as parts of Europe and North America. For maize, parts of South America also appeared to be emissions hotspots. In Asia, China, India, Indonesia and the Philippines were major emitters for both crops. Researchers also observed that China, along with Egypt, Pakistan and northern India have the highest excess nitrogen application (i.e., nitrogen in excess of what can be productively taken up by crops).
Trimming the excess
Specifically identifying hotspots of excess nitrogen application is important, as they represent promising areas to target for emissions reductions. For a given region, the volume of emissions may be a factor simply of large areas under maize or wheat cultivation coupled with of high levels of nitrogen usage. However, farmers in such regions may be not have much room to reduce nitrogen application without affecting yield. And reducing the area under cultivation may not be desirable or viable. Where the rate of excess nitrogen application is high, however, reducing the rate of application and increasing the efficiency of nitrogen use is a win-win.
A farmer in Ethiopia prepares to spread UREA fertilizer by hand in his field after the sowing of wheat. (Photo: CIMMYT)
The researchers estimate that a nitrous oxide emission reduction potential of 25-75% can be achieved through various management practices, such as the 4Rs, which stand for the right source, right timing, right placement and right application rate. Not only would such a reduction drastically reduce N2O emissions and lessen other environmental impacts of maize and wheat production, it would represent a significant cost savings to farmers. Improved efficiency in nitrogen application can also have positive effects on crop yield.
âPromoting integrated nitrogen management approaches through the right policies, institutional supports and good extension systems is essential to improving the use efficiency of nitrogen in order to meet food security, climate action and other sustainable development goals,â says Sapkota.
Kindie Tesfaye, a CIMMYT scientist and one of the authors of the paper, adds, âThe policy importance of the study is that the estimated mitigation potentials from global maize and wheat fields are useful for hotspot countries to target fertilizer and crop management as one of the mitigation options in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).â
Mary Nzau enters a mock agrodealer shop set up on a field on the outskirts of Tala town in Machakos County, Kenya. On display are nine 2kg bags of hybrid maize seed. She picks one. By the look of it, her mind is made up. After a quick scan of the shelf, she has in her hand the variety that she has been purchasing for years.
Regina Mbaika Mutua is less lucky. The variety she always buys is not on display in the mock shop. As part of the experiment, the research team has removed from the shelf the variety she indicated she usually buys. The teamâs goal is to observe what factors influence her seed purchase decision in the absence of the variety she was expecting to purchase.
âAlthough I did not find the variety I was looking for, I picked an alternative as I have seen it perform well on a neighboring farm,â Mutua says, adding that she will plant it this season alongside recycled (farm-saved) seed on her one-acre farm.
Michael Mutua passes up the popular variety he has been planting for the previous two years. He picks one that has been advertised extensively on local radio. âI have heard about it severally on radio. I would like to experiment with this new seed and see how it performs on my farm. Should I like the results, I will give it a chance in ensuing seasons,â he says.
Pieter Rutsaert explains the study setup at a mock agrodealer shop. (Photo: Joshua Masinde/CIMMYT)
The big adoption conundrum
The goal of the out-of-stock study is to improve an understanding of how farmers make their maize seed choices, says Pieter Rutsaert, Markets and Value Chain Specialist at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT).
âWe do this by inviting farmers to a mock agrodealer store that we set up in their villages and give them a small budget to purchase a bag of seed. However, not all farmers walk into the same store: some will find their preferred variety, others wonât. Some will have access to additional trait information or see some varieties with price promotions while others donât.â
Rutsaert acknowledges that breeding programs and their partner seed companies have done a great job at giving farmers access to maize hybrids with priority traits such as drought tolerance and high yield. CIMMYT then works closely with local seed companies to get varieties into the hands of farmers. âWe want to extend that support by providing insights to companies and public breeding programs on how to get new varieties more quickly into the hands of farmers,â he says.
Pauline Muindi (left), gender research associate with CIMMYT, acts as a mock agrodealer clerk and attends a farmer. (Photo: CIMMYT)
The hybrid maize seed sector in Kenya is highly competitive. Amid intensifying competition, new varieties face a daunting task breaking into the market, independent of their quality. While farmers now have more options to pick from, a major challenge has been how to get them to adopt new varieties.
âMoving farmers from something they know to something they donât is not easy. They tend to stick with what they know and have been growing for years,â Rutsaert says.
Pauline Muindi, gender research associate with CIMMYT, acted as the stand-in clerk at the mock store. She noticed that farmers tend to spend very little time in the shop when their preferred variety is available. However, this all changes in the out-of-stock situation, pushing farmers to step out of their comfort zone and explore new options.
The first step to overcoming this challenge is to entice maize farmers to try a new seed variety, even just once, Rutsaert observes. If it is a good variety, farmers will see that and then the market will work in its favor: farmers will come back to that variety in subsequent years and tell others about it.
âThe good news is that many of the varieties we are currently seeing on the market have performed well â thatâs why theyâre popular. But there are newer varieties that are even better, especially in terms of attributes like drought tolerance. We would like to understand how farmers can be convinced to try out these newer varieties. Is it about the need for more awareness on varietal traits? Can we use price promotions? Or are there other factors?â he says.
A researcher interviews Mary Nzau (right), a farmer from Tala town in Machakos County, after her mock purchase. (Photo: Joshua Masinde/CIMMYT)
Does seed price matter?
âWith todayâs climate uncertainty, it is better to stick to a variety that is adapted to such climate rather than banking on a variety one is oblivious of. The risk is not worth it,â Nzau says. She adds that she would rather buy a higher-priced seed packet she knows and trusts than a lower-priced one that she has not used in the past. Radio promotions of new or other varieties have limited sway over her decision to make the switch.
Faith Voni, another farmer, agrees. âIt is better to purchase a higher-priced variety whose quality I can vouch for than risk purchasing a lower-priced one that I know little about. I do not wish to take such a risk.â Voni says she would also be more inclined to experiment with another variety that she had seen perform well on a neighborâs farm.
Michael Mutua holds a different view. âIf there is an option of an equally good but new variety that is lower-priced than the variety I prefer, my wallet decides,â he says.
Vivian Hoffmann, an economist at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and collaborator on the study, says price can be key for convincing consumers to try a new product. âOur previous research on maize flour choice found that a provisional 10 percent discount boosted sales tremendously,â Hoffmann says. âOf course, that only gets your foot in the door; after that, a new variety will need to win farmers over based on its merits.â
Hoffmann is interested in the extent to which drawing farmersâ attention to key varietal attributes influences their seed choice. âThis information is generally already available on seed packets, but we live in a world of information overload. Promoting certain attributes through in-store signage is an approach that is widely used to help consumers make more healthier food choices. Doing the same for new seed varieties makes a lot of sense.â
Michael Mutua (left) responds to preliminary questions from one of the research team members before proceeding to make his seed selection at the mock agrodealer shop. (Photo: Joshua Masinde/CIMMYT)
The value of drought tolerance
Situated on Kenyaâs eastern region, Machakos is characterized by persistent water stress. Climate change induced erratic rainfall has pushed traits that can tolerate the unfavorable weather conditions in the favoriteâs corner. While other traits such as high yield and disease resistance are equally important, the seed, when planted, must first withstand the effects of droughts or water stress in some seasons and germinate. This is the most crucial step in the long journey to either a decent, bare minimum or no yield. A lot of farmers still plant recycled seed alongside hybrid varieties. But these are no match to water stress conditions, which decimate fields planted with farmer-saved seed.
âIf a variety is not climate resilient, I will likely not harvest anything at all,” says Nzau. She has planted a drought-tolerant variety for ten years now. Prior to that, she had planted about three other varieties as well as recycled seed. âThe only advantage with recycled seed is that given the right amount of rainfall, they mature fast â typically within two months. This provides my family with an opportunity to eat boiled or roast maize,â she notes.
However, varieties need to do more than just survive harsh weather conditions. Breeders face a daunting task of incorporating as many traits as possible to cater to the overarching and the specific interests of multiple farmers. As Murenga Mwimali, a maize breeder at the Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization (KALRO) and collaborator in this research says, innovations in breeding technologies are making breeding more efficient.
âIt is better to have a diversity of product profiles as different market niches are captured within a particular agroecological zones. This is such that farmers may not just benefit from the minimum traits like drought tolerance, but also more specific traits they are looking for,â Mwimali says.
Smallholder farmers continue to play a central role in the seed development process. Capturing what happens at the point of purchase, for instance, at the agrodealer, and understanding how they purchase seed offers valuable insights on the traits that are deemed essential in the breeding process. This work contributes to CIMMYTâs focus on fast-tracking varietal turnover by turning the levers towards a demand-driven seed system.
Cover photo: Pauline Muindi, gender research associate with CIMMYT, at the mock agrodealer shop where she acted as a clerk. (Photo: CIMMYT)
The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) has released a set of 12 new maize lines adapted to the tropical  environments targeted by CIMMYT and partner institutions.
