Climate change threatens to reduce global crop production, and poor people in tropical environments will be hit the hardest. More than 90% of CIMMYTâs work relates to climate change, helping farmers adapt to shocks while producing more food, and reduce emissions where possible. Innovations include new maize and wheat varieties that withstand drought, heat and pests; conservation agriculture; farming methods that save water and reduce the need for fertilizer; climate information services; and index-based insurance for farmers whose crops are damaged by bad weather. CIMMYT is an important contributor to the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security.
A S M Alanuzzaman Kurishi is a Research Associate and coordinates the CIMMYT Dinajpur field office in Bangladesh. He has around 12 years of professional experience in CIMMYT on sustainable intensification and global conservation agriculture programs. He has experience on social and environmental impact assessment on existing and future adaptation and climate risk reduction options and strategy. He has experience to lead on-farm adaptive research trials and on-farm demonstrations across southern and northern Bangladesh, with hands-on experience in soil sample collection for physical, chemical and biological analysis, crop growth data (plant height, tiller, leaf area index, leaf biomass, stem biomass, root biomass measurement), pest and disease infestations assessments, yield components, and socioeconomic data. He has demonstrable experience using research equipment including salinity meters, soil moisture equipment, penetrometers and NDVI hand held senors.
Over the years, wheat-based foods have increasingly been incorporated as part of Kenyan meals. One example is packaged bread, which has become a common feature on Kenyan breakfast tables with millions of loaves from industrial bakeries delivered to retail shops daily, countrywide. Another example is chapati â a round unleavened flat bread. Once reserved for special occasions, chapati can now be purchased from roadside venders throughout the capital Nairobi.
Millers and processors in Kenya are highly dependent on imported wheat to meet the strong demand for wheat-based food products. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, two of the most important sources of imported wheat for Kenya, presents a major threat to millers and industrial bakeries. Â Prices for bread and chapati are increasing and may continue to increase. Governments and wheat-related industries are looking at short- and long-term options to reduce utilization of imported wheat. One short-term option is the blending of wheat flour with flour derived from locally available crops, such as cassava, millet or sorghum.
Record-high price of wheat
A sign at a flour mill in East Africa shows proportions of wheat from different origins (Argentina, Russia, Ukraine and local) used in that particular dayâs production. (Photo: Alison Bentley/CIMMYT)
A visit to local industrial bakeries and wheat flour millers on the outskirts of Nairobi by International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) researchers confirmed the effects of record-high global prices of wheat. Â Global Wheat Program director Alison Bentley and senior economist Jason Donovan had conversations with leaders of industrial bakeries and millers, who gave insights into their grain demands, production processes and sales volumes.
One of the leaders of an established industrial bakery divulged that they use approximately 15,000 tons of wheat flour monthly to make baked products, with only 10% of the wheat obtained locally.
âIn the last ten years, local wheat production has comprised about ten to fifteen percent of our cereal mixture for bread, and we were already paying higher prices to farmers compared to import prices. The farmers were already being paid about 30 to 40 dollars more per ton,â a manager of a large baking industry in Kenya explained to the CIMMYT team.
According to government regulations, millers and bakeries must purchase locally produced wheat at agreed prices before they can buy imported wheat. He agreed that though the quality of local wheat is good, the local production cannot compete with the higher volume of imported wheat or its lower price.
Growing wheat in East Africa
It has been more than four months since the Russia-Ukraine conflict unfolded, and since then prices of wheat-based products have been increasing significantly. The current crisis has sparked the debate on low levels of self-sufficiency in food production for many countries. And this is especially the case for wheat in Kenya, and more widely in Africa.
Bentley points out that the biophysical conditions to produce wheat in East Africa are present and favorable. However, more work is needed to strengthen local wheat production, starting with efficient seed systems. Farmers who are interested in growing wheat need access to high performing and stress-tolerant wheat varieties.
CIMMYT Global Wheat Program director, Alison Bentley, observes the bread making process at an industrial bakery on the outskirts of Nairobi, Kenya. (Photo: Susan Otieno/CIMMYT)
Practical response to the crisis
With no certainty as to how long the conflict will continue and climate change resulting in significant crop loss in key production zones, wheat shortages on international markets could become a reality. Blending of wheat flour with locally available crops could be an option as an immediate response to the current scarcity of wheat in East Africa. âBlending [flour] is when for instance five percent of wheat flour is replaced with flour from a different crop such as sorghum or cassava,â Bentley explained.
Donovan added that, though it might seem like a small number, it becomes significant in consideration to the volume of wheat that industries use to make different products, translating into thousands of metric tons. He noted that blending flour therefore has the potential to create a win-win situtation, because it can boost the demand for local crops and address uncertainty and price volatility on international wheat markets.
Consumer acceptance of new products
Different types of flour on supermarket shelves in Kenya. (Photo: Pieter Rutsaert/CIMMYT)
During a full week of engagements with universities, partners, and industry experts in Kenya, the CIMMYT team explored the current interest of the sector in blending wheat flour. Several partners agreed that this could be a potential way forward for the grain industry but all highlighted one key element: the importance of consumer acceptance. If the functionality of the flour or taste would be negatively influenced by blending wheat flour, it would represent a no-go from the industry, even if blends would have higher nutritional benefits or lower prices. âThis reinforces the need to understand consumer preferences and evaluate both the functionality of the flour to produce essential food products such as chapati or bread as well as the taste of those products,â Pieter Rutsaert explained.
CIMMYT researchers Sarah Kariuki and Pieter Rutsaert, both Markets and Value Chain Specialists, and Maria Itria Ibba, Head of the Wheat Quality Lab, are therefore engaging with local millers and universities in Kenya to design bread and chapati products derived from different wheat blends, to include blends comprised of 5%, 15% and 20% of cassava or sorghum. Lab testing and preliminary consumer testing will be used to identify the most promising products. These products will be taken to the streets in urban and peri-urban Nairobi to assess consumer tastes and preferences, through sensory analysis and at-home testing.
The market intelligence gained will offer foundational support for CGIARâs Seed Equal Initiative to accelerate the growth of a demand-driven seed system. By gathering and analyzing consumer preferences on selected crops for blending, such as from farmers and milling industries, Donovan pointed out that CGIAR breeding will continue to make informed choices and prioritize breeding for specific crops, that seek to address specific challenges, therefore having greater impact.
Donovan noted that data and information from the studies will provide much needed evidence and fill information gaps that will support governments, millers, processors and farmers to make decisions in response to the evolving wheat crisis.
Mohammed Abinasa Jilo is a Research Officer with CIMMYT’s Sustainable Agrifood Systems (SAS) program in Ethiopia. His areas of expertise and interest include systems research, conservation agriculture and precision agriculture.
Representatives from the G20 Foreign Ministers’ meeting on July 7-8. (Credit: Antara Foto/Pool/Sigid Kurniawan/rwa.)
The G20 Foreign Ministersâ meeting held on July 7-8 in Bali saw Chinese State Councillor and Foreign Minister, Wang Yi,âŻhighlight support for CGIAR as part of a proposed cooperation initiative to boost global food security.
Foreign Minister Wang Yi highlighted the need to help CGIAR increase innovation and build cooperation on agricultural science and technology among countries. Addressing the meeting, Wang said the food and energy sectors are crucial for the healthy performance of the world economy and the effective implementation of the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.Â
His statement was made shortly before the signing of Letters of Intent for Cooperation between the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and two CGIAR Research Centers, the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI). Â
CIMMYT, IRRI and CAAS intend to establish a joint Center in Hainan to address global food security through advances in wheat and rice breeding. The collaboration aims to enhance the environmental sustainability of rice and wheat based agri-food systems, promote biodiversity conservation, combat climate change, and improve the health and welfare of growers and consumers.Â
CIMMYT Director General, Bram Govaerts added: âThis state-of-the-art breeding center will help us develop and deploy the new nutritious, high-yielding and resilient varieties that Asian farmers need to feed and nurture the most populous region of the world sustainably or within planetary boundaries.âÂ
In three decades of collaboration, CAAS and CGIAR have cooperated on germplasm exchange, breeding new varieties of crops, and providing opportunities for staff collaboration, development and training.Â
In wheat research, the partnership has added as much as 10.7 million tons of grain â worth $3.4 billion â to Chinaâs national wheat output. Additionally, eightâŻCIMMYTâŻscientists have won the Chinese Friendship Award â the highest award for foreign experts who have made outstanding contributions to Chinaâs economic and social progress.Â
A reaffirmation of Chinese support for CGIAR comes on a tide of growing recognition that more investment is needed to tackle hunger. Â
Alison Bentley presents at a joint seminar between CIMMYT and WorldFish. (Photo: Sarah McLaughlin/CIMMYT)
âNow more than ever, we need to build greater resilience across our global food system,â said Alison Bentley, Director of Global Wheat Program at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), to introduce her part of a joint seminar between CIMMYT and WorldFish. The two CGIAR research centers may appear to have different focuses, but the pairing draws attention to many opportunities for intra-CGIAR collaboration to address the looming global food crisis.
Beginning with Ahmed Nasr-Allah, Country Director (Egypt) at WorldFish, the presentation explored Integrated Agriculture and Aquaculture (IAA) systems for food security. Over the coming decades, population growth and increased scarcity of water pose a challenge for food production and agriculture, so water efficiency needs to be maximized.
Nasr-Allah explained that wheat nutrients improve soil quality, which in turn positively impacts fish quality when using water running off growing crops. He gave an example of a farmer who allocated more space on his farm to irrigate and store water and fish, which enabled him to produce higher crop yields. Further research between WorldFish and CIMMYT in this area could be examining nutrient flow from the fish system to the crop system.
Second to present was Bentley, looking at shock-proofing wheat to build future resilience. âItâs important we understand where the risks lie in our global system so we can respond to shocks,â she explained, citing data on global import dependency on Ukrainian and Russian wheat. She went on to describe potential solutions to combat the predicted yield decrease in wheat in the Global South, including substituting a proportion of wheat flour with other under-utilized crops in products, without impacting flour quality or consumer evaluation.
Linking to WorldFishâs work, Bentley highlighted the need to use water more effectively by combining new varieties with enhanced mechanization options to improve crop management, and the potential of optimizing individual components in fish and wheat rotations that could then be combined for greater impact.
The third session was with WorldFish Scientist Sarah Freed, who discussed designing integrated production practices to meet diverse needs. She invited event attendees to consider whether the lessons learnt from challenges in rice growing areas, such as climate change, poverty, food and nutrition insecurity, and increased demand, could be applicable solutions to problems in wheat growing areas.
Using biophysical and sociocultural insights from rice-fish innovations as an example, she listed five recommendations for design: identify objectives; identify a range of production options; use a co-design process; implement fit-for-purpose design and evaluation; and enable adaptation. Of particular interest was the co-design process with people who are involved at all levels, from landowners to rice farmers to laborers, so that the design benefits a variety of stakeholders. Freed also noted that decisions taken for economic reasons, such as extending the shrimp season, can lead to increased soil salinity, which means the ground can no longer incorporate diverse crops.
All three speakers concluded the event by acknowledging the potential in combining their research areas to determine and implement food security solutions.
The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) are establishing a breeding center in Sanya, Hainan Province, China.
The international cooperation will be conducive to the exploration and utilization of germplasm resources of the research organizations, biological breeding research, technical training, and the innovation of the global seed industry.
A wheat field of Bamyan, Afghanistan. (Photo: Nigel Poole/SOAS University of London)
The UN High Commissioner Michelle Bachelet recently said of Afghanistan, “In the wake of years of conflict, and since the takeover by the Taliban in August last year, the country has been plunged into a deep economic, social, humanitarian and human rights crisis” (UN News 2022a). International humanitarian agencies and NGOs have persisted in supporting the population, half of whom are suffering food insecurity, and some of whom are facing unprecedented and catastrophic levels of hunger (UN News 2022b). The conflict in Ukraine is exacerbating the crises in poor import-dependent countries and humanitarian programmes, and Afghanistan will be among the most affected (Bentley and Donovan 2022).
The rural sector underlies Afghanistanâs economic potential, with agriculture as the foundation of the economy. Wheat, both irrigated and rainfed, is the principal agricultural crop, and bread is the major component of the Afghan diet. For decades the country has relied for food security on neighbors such as Kazakhstan and Pakistan and import dependence appears to be a permanent feature of the agricultural economy (Sharma and Nang 2018).
In a recent paper published in Plants, People, Planet, CIMMYT scientists and partners from SOAS University of London, Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit, FAO-Afghanistan, The HALO Trust, Afghanaid and the Agricultural Research Institute of Afghanistan call for renewed investment in Afghanistanâs wheat and agricultural sector.
Bread and spread in Bamyan, Afghanistan. (Photo: Nigel Poole/SOAS University of London)
Improved CIMMYT wheat germplasm has supported agricultural development
CIMMYTâs activities in Afghanistan have focused primarily on supporting the national agricultural research system through the provision of elite, widely adapted germplasm with strong disease resistance. Recent estimates of genetic gains over 14 years (2002-2003 to 2015-2016) of testing of CIMMYTâs Elite Spring Wheat Yield Trial material across 11 locations in Afghanistan documents significant grain yield progress of 115 kg/year. Average yields across 11 testing locations ranged from 3.58 to 5.97 t/ha (Sharma et al., 2021). This indicates that yield potential can be increased through introduction and testing of internationally improved germplasm.
But such investment in research has come to a halt. Local public- and private-sector wheat breeding activities have been largely absent in Afghanistan for over a decade. Hence, wheat productivity remains low due to the limited availability of improved varieties, inadequate quality seed production and distribution. Although in the short term, humanitarian interventions are likely to be the major determinant of food security, we propose that strategic rebuilding of the wheat system will lay the foundation for restoring Afghanistanâs agricultural production, food supplies, nutrition and health. Here we signal opportunities for future improvement.
Opportunities to build climate resilience and enhance seed systems
The need for climate-resilient varieties that meet farmersâ varied requirements and consumer preferences is paramount. Afghan farmers need varieties with improved traits such as heat and drought resilience, incorporating functional variation from existing landrace collections. In addition, agronomic interventions such as conservation agriculture will offer substantial benefits in buffering environmental stresses.
The technological pathways for seed (re-)distribution are a critical part of the innovation pathway from plant breeding to production and productivity. Given the particularities of markets in Afghanistan, both the public sector and the private sector often fail to reach farming geographies that are remote, diverse, and unserved by physical and institutional infrastructure. For many years, basic public services and agricultural interventions have been provided by the NGO sector, and this form of delivery continues. Hence, local âinformalâ systems for seed and inputs are important to smallholder farmers.
Investment to support both irrigated and rain-fed wheat production
Rehabilitation of ancient irrigation practices and infrastructure could once again serve local farming in a way that supports stable production, restores Afghan heritage, and rebuilds social cohesion. However, there are no easy solutions to the challenges of increasing irrigation to boost agriculture. Although yields are lower, there is potential to optimize breeding specifically for rain-fed production. We expect rain-fed agriculture to continue given the limitations of water and infrastructure access.
Wheat improvement must be embedded in the wider agricultural environment. There is a renewed need for a deep understanding of social, political, and cultural systems and how they vary between villages, and from districts, provinces, and regions to people groups. We need to re-envision the roles of men and women in agriculture, and investment in skills and capacity building to provide a stable foundation for the eradication of poverty and food insecurity.
A new wheat program for Afghanistan
We highlight the urgent need for:
Resumption of breeding of nutritious and climate-resilient varieties.
Development of a knowledge base on current wheat production systems, gendered agricultural roles, farmer needs for varietal change and consumer preferences for tasty and nutritious wheat-based products.
Development of seed information systems using new technologies to enhance farmer engagement in research.
Expansion of appropriate irrigation systems and development of nature-based solutions to protect soil and to preserve and conserve water.
Investment in capacity building among private, non-governmental, university and public stakeholders in seed systems and delivery of agricultural services.
These foundations will support the wider regeneration of Afghanistanâs agricultural sector and enhance food security, nutrition and health of some of the worldâs most vulnerable populations.
Full paper
Poole, N., Sharma, R., Nemat, O.A., Trenchard, R., Scanlon, A., Davy, C., Ataei, N., Donovan, J. and Bentley, A.R. (in production). Sowing the wheat seeds of Afghanistan’s future. Plants, People, Planet DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp3.10277
References
Bentley, A. and Donovan, J. (2022). What price wheat? Crisis in Ukraine underscores the need for long-term solutions for global food security. Retrieved 16 June 2022, from https://staging.cimmyt.org/blogs/what-price-wheat/.
Sharma, R.K. and Nang, M. (2018). Afghanistan wheat seed scenario: Status and imperatives. International Journal of Agricultural Policy and Research6(5): 71-75 DOI: https://doi.org/10.15739/IJAPR.18.008
A women farmer picking up lodged paddy field after the untimely flash floods in Nepal (Photo: Sravan Shrestha/ICIMOD)
As climate change-induced disasters surge around the world, it is the people of the least developed countries paying the bulk of the costs. Â According to the International Disaster Database, the number of disasters across the globe has risen by 74.5% â comparing data from 1980â1999 with 2000â2019 â and these numbers are expected to increase due to the most recent climate change scenarios. The major climate change impacts identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change relevant for Nepal include an increase in economic losses from weather and climate-related events, with a significant contribution related to agricultural losses.
In Nepal, for example, an unexpected and untimely excessive rainfall and flood in October of 2021 caused massive damage to the ready-to-harvest crop across all major rice-producing areas of Nepal â threatening the food security and livelihood of the countryâs smallholder rice farmers.
A rice damage assessment was essential to gather insights on the seed production losses and propose anticipatory measures for seed management and distribution to farmers for the next season. Thanks to a collaboration between scientists from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), a rapid loss assessment through a survey of rice-growing farmers was conducted to quickly assess the damage and recommend critical operational decisions to the Nepali government to mitigate the impact. With the help of an operational mobile app, Geofairy, the USAID-supported Nepal Seed and Fertilizer project (NSAF), implemented by CIMMYT, surveyed 253 farmers in six districts of the mid and far western region with a particular focus on the potential seed production losses for next year’s cultivation.
Unforeseen disaster
The 2021 disaster in Nepal came as a shock to farmers: the 2021 monsoon was proceeding as forecasted in the seasonal outlook, and by the end of the season, farmers were generally expecting bumper rice crops. The withdrawal of southwest monsoon system was declared in early October. However, from 18-20 October 2021, instead of dry spell, the country experienced a three-day excessive rainfall and accompanying flooding that caused massive damage to the ready-to-harvest crop across all major rice-producing areas in the southern lowland Terai region of Nepal.
The partially harvested and standing crop suffered three kinds of damage. First, farmers near the riverbanks lost their ready-to-harvest paddy as it was swept away by flash floods. The second category was in the low-lying southern plains, where rainwater inundated the harvested, but not collected, paddy fields for more than two days, causing seeds or grains on the panicles to sprout. Sprouted seeds on the mother plant have reduced germination capacity and vigor, and cannot be stored for a long period while maintaining the germination capacity. The third damage was stem and root lodging (falling over) due to powerful winds.
Digital technologies for rapid damage assessment
With conventional approaches, on-ground damage assessments after a disaster can take weeks, sometimes months, limiting critical operational decisions in the first few hours and days. However, Nepalâs Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development (MoALD) was already prepared: since 2019, the Ministry has been using satellite remote sensing for in-season rice area estimation through the USAID-supported SERVIR HKH program.
Thanks to the platform, experts from ICIMOD were able to share a satellite image-based assessment as early as 22 October 2021: two days after the flood.
This existing digital crop monitoring platform was used to produce a rapid-damage assessment to provide an analytical basis for initial decisions. In the rapid damage assessment, GMP IMERGE satellite data was used to measure the rainfall intensity across Nepal (Figure 1) and Selntinel-1 SAR satellite data was used to map flood water extent in the Terai district of Nepal on 21 October 2022. The assessment also served as a planning tool for in-depth damage evaluation for farmer compensations.
Widespread flooding
Figure 1. Rainfall distribution during 18-20 October 2021 based on the GPM IMERGE satellite precipitation data
Satellite precipitation data showed the occurrence of hefty rainfall in Morang, Sunsari, Saptari, Siraha and Jhapa districts in the Eastern region. In the Western region, Kailali and Kanchanpur experienced intense rainfall, while most of the central districts of the Terai region remained below heavy rain.
Based on satellite images acquired, the flood extent assessment showed major flood spread in the western parts, including Kanchanpur, Kailali, Bardiya and Banke districts (Figure 2). The flood water extent remained lower in the Eastern districts compared to the West. The causes of severe damage were from direct rain pour and winds in the Eastern region, and flood swept from riverbanks in the Western parts.
Figure 2. Flood extent on 21 October 2021 in Kanchanpur district based on the Sentinel-1 satellite data
Assessment results: Reduced seed quality and shortage of rice seed supply for the next planting season
According to a field-based assessment, the two most popular varieties, Radha-4 and Sarju-52, are the most affected by the flood, especially in Banke, Bardiya, Kailali and Kanchanpur districts. Accordingly, 89% of Radha-4 and 42% of Sarju-52 seed production field has faced partial or complete loss in the surveyed districts. As per the district-wise loss assessment, 80% of Sirju-52 grown in Kailali and 61% in Kanchanpur suffered 50-100% damage. Similarly, nearly 60% of Radha-4 grown in Banke and Bardiya districts has suffered a crop loss ranging from 50-100%. This clearly indicates a huge shortage of these varieties for the next rice season which calls for immediate action to mitigate the seed deficit.
The survey found that farmers in Bardiya, Banke and Kailali had severe or complete crop loss, while those in Kanchanpur, Kapilvastu and Rupendehi had partial crop failure (Figure. 3)
Figure 3. Level of rice loss (%) due to flood, based on a rapid crop loss assessment in six districts of Nepal
Losses and the limits of early warning systems
According to the governmentâs final estimates, about 1,10,000 ha of rice crop area was damaged across the country. Respondents from the western districts reported that 80% of the farmers could only manage 50% or less than the expected harvest. The farmers reported an average input cost of $526 per hectare (NPR 63,162 per ha) and gross expected income of $972 per hectare (NPR 116,674 per ha) â leaving a very narrow margin of profit. To compensate for this economic blow, the government distributed  $43 million (NPR 5.52 billion) among the farmers. However, with a total loss of $0.1 billion (NPR 12 billion), farmers still suffered a great loss.
Figure 4. Percentage of safe harvest in four western districts (Kapilvastu, Rupandehi, Kanchanpur and Bardiya) of Nepal
Although early warning systems were in place in the surveyed districts, some respondents expressed low trust and reliability in the early warnings and only 20% of respondents were aware of the heavy rainfall forecast issued three days before the extreme event. Earlier studies in the Ganges basin have suggested that a 10â20-day lead-time forecast is needed to avoid agriculture losses. However, predicting a high magnitude of low-frequency extreme events with sufficient advance notice is still a significant challenge in climate science.
How to mitigate and weather such challenges?
Nepal’s rice seed replacement rate is around 20%, which means that about 80% of farmers are not accessing good quality seeds every season. The addition of this untimely flash flood and the subsequent seed loss will further worsen seed availability, in turn contributing to food insecurity at the national level. The assessment findings have several implications for actions needed to mitigate future climate shocks.
Among other mitigation approaches, stakeholders need to assess in-country level quality rice seed availability and design a plan to mobilize preferred varieties from the surplus districts â less affected by the flood â to those in need.
During challenging times, maintaining seed quality standards might be difficult. Hence, stakeholders need to consider adopting a flexible quality standard such as âquality declared seedsâ in similar emergency scenarios. The âquality declared seedâ standard helps as an important intervention when normal seed production is greatly affected by drought and/or flood. It offers alternative seed quality standards for seed producers to provide seeds and ensure continuity of crop production.
Promoting climate-resilient varieties, especially lodging- or submergence-tolerant rice varieties, will better withstand flooding as compared to the susceptible ones.
Furthermore, farmers need access to a suitable crop insurance scheme to offset seed losses during extreme weather events. For instance, seed growers can purchase a group insurance scheme where customized premiums could be available to the members.
Some of the above mitigation approaches can be applied when extreme weather events are well forecasted and less severe. However, in the wake of an emerging climate crisis and limited mitigation options, there is a need to balance efforts on all aspects of adaptation, including the adoption of crop management practices including accelerated varietal turnover to modify threats and prevent adverse impacts, strengthen early warning systems with a focus on last-mile connection to minimize damages, and develop innovative mechanisms to address risk transfer and loss and damage compensations for sharing losses.
For the first time ever, a biotechnology team has identified vegetative storage proteins (VSP) in maize and activated them in the leaves to stockpile nitrogen reserves for release when plants are hit by drought, which also causes nutrient stress, according to a recent report in Plant Biotechnology Journal. In two years of field testing, the maize hybrids overexpressing the VSP in leaf cells significantly out-yielded the control siblings under managed drought stress applied at the flowering time, according to Kanwarpal Dhugga, a principal scientist at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT).
âOne of the two most widely grown crops, maize increasingly suffers from erratic rainfall and scarcer groundwater for irrigation,â Dhugga said. âUnder water stress, nitrogen availability to the plant is also attenuated. If excess nitrogen could be stored in the leaves during normal plant growth, it could help expedite the plantâs recovery from unpredictable drought episodes. In our experimental maize hybrids, this particular VSP accumulated to more than 4% in mesophyll cells, which is five times its normal levels, and offered an additional, dispensable source of nitrogen that buffered plants against water deficit stress.â
Dhugga noted as well that the study, whose authors include scientists from Corteva Agriscience, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), provides experimental evidence for the link between drought tolerance and adequate nitrogen fertilization of crop plants. âThis mechanism could also help farmers and consumers in sub-Saharan Africa, where maize is grown on nearly 40 million hectares, accounts for almost one-third of the regionâs caloric intake, and frequently faces moderate to severe drought.â
Scientists multiply and power up vegetative storage proteins in maize leaves as nutrient stockpiles for drought-stressed maize crops. Graphic adapted from: Pooja Gupta, Society for Experimental Biology (SEB).
Our planet is facing a massive biodiversity crisis. Deeply entwined with our concurrent climate crisis, this crisis may well constitute the sixth mass extinction in Earthâs history. Increasing agricultural production, whether by intensification of extensification, is a major driver of biodiversity loss. Beyond humanityâs moral obligation to not drive other species to extinction, biodiversity loss is also associated with the erosion of critical processes that maintain the Earth system in the only state that can support life as we know it. It is also associated with the emergence of novel, zoonotic pathogens like the SARS-CoV-2 virus that is responsible for the current COVID-19 global pandemic.
Conservation ecologists have proposed two solutions to this challenge: sparing or sharing land. The former implies practicing a highly intensive form of agriculture on a smaller land area, thereby âsparingâ a greater proportion of land for biodiversity. The latter implies a multifunctional approach that boosts the density of wild flora and fauna on agricultural land. Both have their weaknesses though: sparing often leads to agrochemical pollution of adjacent ecosystems, while sharing implies using more land for any production target.
In an article in Biological Conservation, agricultural scientists at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), argue that, while both land sharing and sparing are part of the solution, the current debate is too focused on trade-offs and tends to use crop yield as the sole metric of agricultural performance. By overlooking potential synergies between agriculture and biodiversity and ignoring metrics that may matter more to farmers than yield âfor example, income, labor productivity, or resilience â the authors argue that the two approaches have had limited impact on the adoption by farmers of practices with proven benefits on both biodiversity and agricultural production.
Beyond the zero-sum game
At the heart of the debate around land sparing versus land sharing is a common assumption: there is a zero-sum relationship between wild species density and agricultural productivity per unit of land. Hence, the answer to the challenge of balancing biodiversity conservation with feeding a growing human population appears to entail some unpalatable trade-offs, no matter which side of the debate you side with. As the debate has largely been driven by conservation ecologists, proposed solutions often approach conserving biodiversity in ways that offer limited benefits, and often losses, to farmers.
On the land sparing side, the vision is to carve up rural landscapes almost as a planner would zone urban space: some areas would be zoned for highly intensive forms of agricultural production, largely devoid of wild species, while others would be zoned as biodiversity-rich areas. As the authors point out, however, such a strictly segregated view of land use is challenged by the natural migratory patterns of species, their need for diverse types of ecosystems over the course of the seasons or their lifecycles, and the high risk of pollution associated with intensive agriculture, such as run-off and leaching of agrochemicals, and pesticide drift.
Proponents of the land sharing view argue for a multifunctional approach to agricultural production that introduces a greater density of wild species onto agricultural land, thus integrating production and conservation into the same land units. This, however, inevitably diminishes agricultural productivity, as measured by yield.
This view, the article argues, overlooks the synergies between agriculture and biodiversity. Not only can biodiversity support agriculture through ecosystem services, but farmlands also support many species. For example, the patchiness created in the landscape by swidden agriculture or by grazing livestock supports more biodiversity than closed-canopy ecosystems, benefiting open-habitat species in particular. And except for rare forms of âcontrolled environment agricultureâ such as hydroponics, all agricultural systems depend on the ecosystem services rendered by a multitude of organisms, from soil fertility maintenance to pollination and pest control.
Tzeltal farmers in Chiapas, Mexico. (Photo: Peter Lowe for CIMMYT)
Similarly, an exclusive focus on yield as a measure of agricultural performance obscures ways in which greater biodiversity on agricultural land can support farmers’ livelihoods and economic wellbeing. The authors show, for example, that simplified landscapes in southern Ethiopia tend to have higher crop productivity. But more diverse landscape in the same area, while hosting more biodiversity, produce more fuelwood, support a higher livestock productivity, provide a greater dietary diversity, and are more resilient to environmental stresses and external economic shocks, all of which being highly valued by local people.
Imagining landscapes where biodiversity and people win
The land sharing versus sparing debate deserves enormous credit for bringing attention to the role of agriculture in biodiversity loss and for pushing the scientific community and policymakers to address the problem and think about how to balance agriculture and conservation. As the authors of this paper show, as researchers from a more diverse range of scientific disciplines join the debate, there is tremendous potential to move the conversation from a vision that pits agriculture against biodiversity and towards solutions that highlight the potential synergies between these activities.
âIt is our hope that this paper will stimulate other agricultural scientists to contribute to the debate on how to feed a growing population while safeguarding biodiversity. This is possibly one of the biggest challenges of our rapidly changing agri-food systems. But we have the technologies and the analytics to face this challenge,â Baudron said.
Cover photo: Pilot farm in Yangambi, Democratic Republic of Congo. (Photo: Axel Fassio/CIFOR)
CIMMYT scientists are using biodiversity, testing forgotten wheat varieties from across the world, to find those with heat- and drought-tolerant traits. The aim is to outpace human-made global heating and breed climate-resilient varieties so yields do not collapse, as worst-case scenarios predict.
Reporter Nina Lakhanivisited CIMMYT’s experimental station in Ciudad Obregon, in Mexico’s Sonora state, and witnessed CIMMYT’s unique role in fighting climate change through the development of resilient varieties as “international public goods”.
Written by Bea Ciordia on . Posted in Uncategorized.
The Mining Useful Alleles for Climate Change Adaptation from CGIAR Genebanks project, led by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), is expanding the use of biodiversity held in the worldâs genebanks to develop new climate-smart crop varieties for millions of small-scale farmers worldwide. It aims to identify plant accessions in genebanks that contain alleles, or gene variations, responsible for characteristics such as heat, drought or salt tolerance, and to facilitate their use in breeding climate-resilient crop varieties.
Through this project, breeders will learn how to use genebank materials more effectively and efficiently to develop climate-smart versions of important food crops, including cassava, maize, sorghum cowpea, and rice.
Building on 10 years of support to CIMMYT from the Mexican government, CGIAR Trust Fund contributors, and the UK Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, the Mining Useful Alleles for Climate Change Adaptation from CGIAR Genebanks project combines the use of cutting-edge technologies and approaches, high-performance computing, GIS mapping, and new plant breeding methods to identify and use accessions with high value for climate-adaptive breeding of varieties needed by farmers and consumers.
Support faster and more cost-effective discovery and deployment of climate -adaptive alleles from the world’s germplasm collections
Test integrated approaches for five major crops (i.e., cassava, maize, sorghum, cowpea, and rice), providing a scalable model for the rapid and cost-effective discovery and deployment of climate-adaptive alleles.
Written by Bea Ciordia on . Posted in Uncategorized.
The Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) project is an initiative that will enhance access to climate information services and validated climate-smart agriculture technologies in Africa.
AICCRA aims to support farmers and livestock keepers to better anticipate climate-related events and take preventative actions, with better access to climate advisories linked to information about effective response measures.
Wheat leaves showing symptoms of heat stress. (Photo: CIMMYT)
Across South Asia, including major wheat-producing regions of India and Pakistan, temperature extremes are threatening wheat production. Heatwaves have been reported throughout the region, with a century record for early onset of extreme heat. Monthly average temperatures across India for March and April 2022 exceeded those recorded over the past 100 years.
Widely recognized as one of the major breadbaskets of the world, the Indo-Gangetic Plains region produces over 100 million tons of wheat annually, from 30 million hectares in Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan, primarily supporting large domestic demand.
The optimal window for wheat planting is the first half of November. The late onset of the 2021 summer monsoon delayed rice planting and its subsequent harvest in the fall. This had a knock-on effect, delaying wheat planting by one to two weeks and increasing the risk of late season heat stress in March and April. Record-high temperatures over 40â°C were observed on several days in March 2022 in the Punjabs of India and Pakistan as well as in the state of Haryana, causing wheat to mature about two weeks earlier than usual.
In-season changes and effects
Prior to the onset of extreme heat, the weather in the current season in India was favorable, prompting the Government of India to predict a record-high wheat harvest of 111 million tons. The March heat stress was unexpected and appears to have had a significant effect on the wheat crop, advancing the harvest and likely reducing yields.
Departure of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) during the period from March 22 to April 7 from the average of the previous five years. The NDVI is a measure of the leaf area and the greenness of vegetation. The yellow areas in the Punjabs of India and Pakistan, as well as in the state of Haryana, indicate that wheat matured earlier than normal due to elevated temperatures. Maximum temperatures reached 40â°C on March 15 and remained at or above this level throughout the wheat harvesting period. (Map: Urs Schulthess/CIMMYT).
In the North-Western Plains, the major wheat basket of India, the area of late-sown wheat is likely to have been most affected even though many varieties carry heat tolerance. Data from CIMMYT’s on-farm experiments show a yield loss between 15 to 20% in that region. The states of Haryana and Punjab together contribute almost 30% of Indiaâs total wheat production and notably contribute over 60% of the government’s buffer stocks. In the North-Eastern Plains, in the states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, around 40% of the wheat crop was normal or even early sown, escaping heat damage, whilst the remainder of late-sown wheat is likely to be impacted at a variable level, as most of the crop in this zone matures during the third and fourth week of March.
The Government of India has now revised wheat production estimates, with a reduction of 5.7%, to 105 million tons because of the early onset of summer.
India has reported record yields for the past 5 years, helping it to meet its goal of creating a reserve stock of 40 million tons of wheat after the 2021 harvest. It went into this harvest season with a stock of 19 million tons, and the country is in a good position to face this year’s yield loss.
In Pakistan, using satellite-based crop monitoring systems, the national space agency Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SPARCO) estimated wheat production reduction close to 10%: 26 million tons, compared to the production target of 29 million tons, for the 2021-22 season.
We recommend that systematic research be urgently undertaken to characterize and understand the impacts of elevated temperatures on the health of field-based workers involved in wheat production. This is needed to develop a holistic strategy for adapting our global cropping systems to climate change.
India had pledged to provide increased wheat exports to bolster global supplies, but this now looks uncertain given the necessity to safeguard domestic supplies. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Indian government supported domestic food security by providing free rations â mainly wheat and rice â to 800 million people over several months. This type of support relies on the availability of large buffer stocks which appear stable, but may be reduced if grain production and subsequent procurement levels are lower than desired.
We are already seeing indications of reduced procurement by governments with market prices running higher than usual. However, although the Food Corporation of India has procured 27% less wheat grain in the first 20 days of the wheat procurement season compared to the same period last year, the Government of India is confident about securing sufficient wheat buffer stocks.
As with the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, it is likely that the most marked effects of both climate change and shortages of staple crops will hit the poorest and most vulnerable communities hardest.
A chain reaction of climate impacts
The real impacts of reduced wheat production due to extreme temperatures in South Asia demonstrate the realities of the climate emergency facing wheat and agricultural production. Direct impacts on farming community health must also be considered, as our agricultural workforce is pushed to new physical limits.
Anomalies, which are likely to become the new normal, can set off a chain reaction as seen here: the late onset of the summer monsoon caused delays in the sowing of rice and the subsequent wheat crop. The delayed wheat crop was hit by the unprecedented heatwave in mid- to late March at a relatively earlier stage, thus causing even more damage.
Preparing for wheat production tipping points
Urgent action is required to develop applied mitigation and adaptation strategies, as well as to plan for transition and tipping points when key staple crops such as wheat can no longer be grown in traditional production regions.
A strategic design process is needed, supported by crop and climate models, to develop and test packages of applied solutions for near-future climate changes. On-farm evidence from many farmersâ fields in Northwestern India indicates that bundled solutions â no-till direct seeding with surface retention of crop residues coupled with early seeding of adapted varieties of wheat with juvenile heat tolerance â can help to buffer terminal heat stress and limit yield losses.
Last but not least, breeding wheat for high-temperature tolerance will continue to be crucial for securing production. Strategic planning needs to also encompass the associated social, market and political elements which underpin equitable food supply and stability.
With the participation of more than 30 researchers from four CGIAR Centers located in the Americas, a planning workshop for a new CGIAR Research Initiative, AgriLAC Resiliente, was held on April 4â6, 2022. Its purpose was to define the implementation of activities to improve the livelihoods of producers in Latin America, with the support of national governments, the private sector, civil society, and CGIARâs regional and global funders, and partners.
âThis workshop is the first face-to-face planning meeting aimed at defining, in a joined-up manner and map in hand, how the teams across Centers in the region will complement each other, taking advantage of the path that each Center has taken in Latin America, but this time based on the advantage of reaching the territories not as four independent Centers, but as one CGIAR team,â says Deissy MartĂnez BarĂłn, leader of the Initiative from the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT.
AgriLAC Resiliente is an Initiative co-designed to transform food systems in Latin America and the Caribbean. It aims to increase resilience, ecosystem services and the competitiveness of agrifood innovation systems in the region. Through this Initiative, CGIAR is committed to providing a regional structure that enhances its effectiveness and responds better to national and regional priorities, needs and demands.
This Initiative is one of a number that the CGIAR has in Latin America and the Caribbean and consists of five research components:
Climate and nutrition that seeks to use collaborative innovations for climate-resilient and nutritious agrifood systems;
Digital agriculture through the use of digital and inclusive tools for the creation of actionable knowledge;
Competitiveness with low emissions, focused on agroecosystems, landscapes and value chains, low in sustainable emissions;
Innovation and scaling with the Innova-Hubs network for agrifood innovations and their scaling up;
Science for timely decision making and the establishment of policies, institutions and investments in resilient, competitive and low-emission agrifood systems.
The regional character of these CGIAR Initiatives and of the teams of researchers who make them a reality in the territories with the producers, was prominent in the minds of the leadership that also participated in this workshop. Martin Kropff, Global Director, Resilient Agrifood Systems, CGIAR; JoaquĂn Lozano, Regional Director, Latin America and the Caribbean, CGIAR; Ăscar Ortiz, Acting Director General of the International Potato Center; JesĂșs Quintana, Manager for the Americas of the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT; and Bram Govaerts, Director General of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), all stated the importance of CGIAR being central to every discussion in which the teams are co-constructing a greater consensus on what AgriLAC Resliente is, what it wants to achieve, the approach it will use, and the goals it aims to achieve through synergies among its five components.
Acting as an integrated organization is also an opportunity for CGIAR to leverage co-developed solutions and solve local challenges in the global South related to climate change and agrifood systems transformation. âBuilding the new CGIAR involves tons of collaboration and coordination. In this AgriLAC Resiliente workshop, we have had a dialogue full of energy focused on achieving real impactâ highlighted Bram Govaerts. He continued, âthis is an occasion to strengthen teamwork around this CGIAR Initiative in which the Integrated Agrifood System Initiative approach will be applied in the Latin American region, which is a very interconnected regionâ he pointed out.
One of the main results of this workshop is an opportunity to carry out the integration of the CGIAR teams in the implementation of the AgriLAC Resiliente Initiative, with applied science and the decisive role of the partners at each point of the region, as mechanisms for change.
In 2022, the research teams will begin to lay the groundwork for implementing the Initiativeâs integrative approach to strengthen the innovations to be co-developed with partners and collaborators in the Latin American region, that encompass the interconnected nature of the global South.
