As hotter temperatures and drought become the norm in places used to growing wheat, yields will be reduced, climate change will have some effect on most of the world’s wheat. CIMMYT is working to strengthen seed systems as demand for staple crops like wheat is only expected to increase as the climate crisis makes the world’s food system more vulnerable.
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Brazil is moving towards self-sufficiency, reducing the need for imports and increasing its participation in the international wheat market. The development of adapted wheat varieties with stable yields disease resistance, and wheat strains from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) enabled the consolidation and expansion of cereal crops in the country.
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The conflict between Russia and Ukraine undoubtedly impacts food security, as these two countries are responsible for more than a quarter of wheat traded globally. Developing countries that rely heavily on wheat imports are most at risk from this supply disruption.
Set against an existing backdrop of food insecurity and increasing poverty, the conflict exacerbates present challenges. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) predicts that a further 11 to 19 million people will be experiencing chronic hunger by 2023, on top of the existing 193 million people facing food insecurity, and at least 47 countries are expected to fall short of the Zero Hunger target, one of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
In a study at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), scientists theorized that the domestic price of wheat is determined by the international price. Their hypothesis also supposed that wheat production is constant and that no significant change in wheat consumption habits is expected in the foreseeable future.
Scientists discovered that a 1 percent decrease in the global wheat trade could increase the producers’ price by 1.1 percent in the countries sampled. Furthermore, a 1 percent increase in the producers’ price could reduce annual per capita wheat consumption by 0.59 percent, daily calorie intake by 0.54 percent and protein intake by 0.64 percent. A 50% reduction in Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports could increase prices by 15 percent, leading to an 8% reduction in wheat consumption and dietary energy intake.
Rising costs of staple foods such as wheat can lead to violence and social unrest, as witnessed in 2007-11. It is therefore vital to ensure that import-dependent, resource-poor countries are supported to address their precarious food security. Steady public funding, investment in research, and enhanced production in wheat-growing nations can play an integral role in achieving a solution. In the long-term, closing the yield gap through research and investment, particularly in Africa, will lead towards self-sufficiency in wheat in Africa, contributing towards overall food security across the continent.
Read the study: Potential impacts of Ukraine-Russia armed conflict on global wheat food security: A quantitative exploration
This study was financially supported by the CGIAR Initiative on Foresight and Metrics for the Transformation of Food, Land and Water Systems (FMI). We would like to thank all funders who supported this research through their contributions to the CGIAR Trust Fund.
Cover photo: Scientists from CIMMYT’s Sustainable Agrifood Systems (SAS) program in wheat fields, Ethiopia. (Photo: Rabe Yahaya/CIMMYT)
Guidance from an interdisciplinary group of experts lists crucial actions for governments and investors to move towards long-term resilience in agrifood systems as part of a World Food Day campaign.
Plant health scientists from The Sainsbury Laboratory, the John Innes Institute at Norwich Research Park, and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) have collaborated on guidance divided into short-, medium- and long-term priorities, designed to mitigate impending food crises and stabilize wheat supply chains.
In the short-term, wheat production must be increased and wheat flour can be blended with other low-cost cereals. Increasing the local, regional and global resilience of wheat supply is the medium-term solution, while long-term proposals center on ensuring diversity in agro-ecosystems.
Read the original article: Leading Norwich plant scientists call for action to mitigate food crisis
The war in Ukraine, coupled with weather-related disruptions in the world’s major grain-producing regions, could unleash unbearable waves of displacement, humanitarian consequences, civil unrest, major financial losses worldwide, and geopolitical fragility, says Bram Govaerts, DG of CIMMYT, in a Boston Globe op-ed.
The impacts of the Ukraine crisis are likely to reverberate over months, if not years, to come. If the reductions in wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine are as severe as anticipated, global supplies of wheat will be seriously constrained. If a major reduction in fertilizer exports comes to pass, the resulting drop in global productivity will tighten global markets for wheat, other grains and alternate food sources — leaving vulnerable people all over the world facing higher food prices, hunger and malnutrition.
These massive disruptions will erode modest progress made toward gender equality, biodiversity conservation and dietary diversification. The severe impact of this single shock shows the underlying fragility and complexity of our agri-food systems. Climate change will bring many more.
The world must take essential actions to mitigate food shocks, stabilize local wheat supplies and transition toward agri-food system resilience, from the current efficiency-driven model. We call for large and sustained agricultural research investments as a foundational element of any viable, food-secure future.
From chronic challenges to food crisis conditions
Global wheat production for export is geographically concentrated, placing inherent vulnerabilities on the global system. Dominance of the wheat export trade by a relatively small number of countries makes sense under an efficiency paradigm, but it opens the door to price spikes and food-related crises. At the same time, biophysical vulnerability of major global breadbaskets is on the rise as drought and other weather extremes increase volatility in cereal yields, exports and prices.
Russia and Ukraine produce 28% of the world’s total wheat exports and Russia is a globally important source of fuel and fertilizer. With over 2.5 billion people worldwide consuming wheat-based products and wheat futures at their highest levels since 2012, disrupted exports from Russia and Ukraine would usher in substantial new pressures on global wheat markets and tremendous risks for vulnerable populations around the world.
Dependence on wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine imperils food security in lower- and middle-income countries in North Africa and the Middle East (Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Yemen), the Mediterranean (Azerbaijan, Turkey), sub-Saharan Africa (Nigeria, Sudan), Southern Asia (Bangladesh, Pakistan) and throughout Southeast Asia. Globally elevated food prices will hit hardest in those countries already struggling with food insecurity.
Layered onto the existing concentration of wheat-exporting countries and the climate-induced vulnerabilities in essential global breadbaskets, the crisis in Ukraine and trade sanctions on Russia are triggering a level of volatility that could easily overwhelm existing mitigation mechanisms. We may well see a range of negative effects over the short, medium and long term, including:
Stabilize while building resilience
With these multi-layered challenges in view, we propose essential actions to mitigate near-term food security crises, to stabilize wheat supply and to concurrently transition toward agri-food system resilience.
Without doubt, the world’s top priority must be to mitigate food security crises at our doorstep. This will involve boosting wheat production through expanded acreage (e.g. in high-performing systems in the Global North) and closing yield gaps (e.g. improved management and value chains of rainfed, wheat-based systems in the Global South) using policy incentives such as price guarantees and subsidized agricultural inputs. Short-term food insecurity can also be addressed through demand-side management (e.g. market controls to conserve grain stocks for human consumption; use of lower-cost flour blends) and de-risking alternative sourcing (e.g. trade agreements).
As these actions are taken, a range of strategies can simultaneously drive toward more resilient wheat supply at local to global scales. Well-functioning seed systems, demand-driven agronomic support and other elements of wheat self-reliance can be encouraged through shifts in local policy, regulatory and sectoral contexts. Enhanced monitoring capacity can track spatial patterns in wheat cropping, including expansion into areas where comparative advantage for wheat production (e.g. agro-ecological suitability; supporting infrastructure) has been identified in rural development frameworks and national plans (e.g. as a double crop in Ethiopian midlands). In addition to enabling yield forecasts, surveillance systems are critical to phytosanitary control of geographically restricted pathogens under altered wheat trade routes.
Yet, these steps to mitigate food shocks and stabilize local wheat supplies will not adequately protect the world from climate-related biophysical risks to food and nutritional security. In parallel, a transition toward agri-food system resilience requires transformative investments in agricultural diversification, sustainable natural resource management and low-greenhouse-gas agroecosystems, as well as meaningful actions toward achieving gender equality, nutritional sufficiency and livelihood security.
Sustained research & development for a food-secure future
None of the critical actions described above are guaranteed given the oscillating global investment in agricultural research. Enabled by decades of agricultural research, the world has managed to constrain the number and severity of food security crises through major gains in agricultural productivity.
The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), the global international wheat research Center of the CGIAR, has been working tirelessly to maintain wheat harvests around the world in the face of mounting disease pressures and climate challenges. The estimated benefit-cost ratio for wheat improvement research ranges from 73:1 to 103:1. Yet, research funding only rises when food crises occur, revealing the globalized risks of our highly interconnected agri-food systems, and then tapers as memories fade.
With limited resources, scientists around the world are attacking the complex challenge of increasing agricultural yields and ensuring stable, equitable food supplies. Receiving only about 2% of international agricultural research funding over time, CIMMYT and the entire CGIAR have had limited ability to develop the long-term research capabilities that could mitigate or prevent short-term emergencies with medium- to long-term effects.
Responding to the mounting pressures on deeply complex agri-food systems requires integrative solutions that allow farmers and other agri-food stakeholders to mitigate and withstand shocks and to achieve viable livelihoods. Knowledge and technology needs are extensive across production systems (e.g. wheat-legume intercropping; cereals-focused agroecological interventions), value chains (e.g. context-appropriate seed systems; nutrition enhancement through flour blending), monitoring systems (e.g. genomics-based surveillance), and social dimensions (e.g. gender implications of new production and consumption strategies; policy interventions).
Generating such solutions depends on robust, multidisciplinary and transparent research capabilities that fuel the transition to agri-food system resilience. Robust international investment in resilient agricultural systems is an essential condition for national security, global peace and prosperity.
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Another food crisis? The Ukraine conflict, global wheat supply and food security
The Adaptation, Demonstration, and Piloting of Wheat Technologies for Irrigated Lowlands of Ethiopia (ADAPT-Wheat) project was launched on October 19, 2021, with an inception workshop held in Adama, Ethiopia.
The project, led by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), aims to transform the irrigated lowlands of Ethiopia’s Awash valley from a cotton monoculture to a cotton-wheat rotation. This transformation will improve local wheat production and make important strides towards helping the country reach its goal of wheat self-sufficiency.
Wheat is the second most important staple crop in Ethiopia and a major pillar for food security. CIMMYT has a longstanding role in helping Ethiopia’s wheat farmers adopt improved, high-yielding, and disease-resistant varieties. This close collaboration became evident in 2018, when DNA fingerprinting analysis showed that 87% of all wheat varieties grown in Ethiopia are CIMMYT-derived.
Thanks to improved farmer access to better varieties, the adoption of a number of agronomic practice recommendations, conducive marketing, and strong supply chains, domestic wheat production and productivity in Ethiopia have nearly doubled over the past 15 years. Nevertheless, due to population growth, higher incomes, and accelerated urbanization, the demand for wheat in Ethiopia is increasing faster than productivity.
Scientists believe wheat grain yields of four tons per hectare are possible in low land areas—which include the Afar and Oromia regions—if wheat production is increased through appropriate mechanization, proven agronomic practices, and high-yielding, early-maturing, heat-tolerant, rust-resistant wheat varieties.
When the three-year ADAPT-Wheat project is fully implemented, it will contribute to Ethiopia’s goal for wheat self-sufficiency by 2023.
A space for discussion
At the launch event, participants gathered to share feedback and experiences, identify gaps, and clarify roles and responsibilities among the implementing partners. The meeting also allowed project leaders to confirm participating kebeles (small administrative units), and plan and endorse project activities.
“The forum was a good opportunity to speak about irrigated wheat, get to know each other, and understand the role of each office and its contribution to the success of the project,” said Bekele Abeyo, wheat breeder and CIMMYT’s Country Representative for Ethiopia.
Participants in the workshop included scientists from a number of Ethiopian research institutes, representatives of public and private seed enterprises, heads of bureaus of Agriculture (including those of the Afar and Oromia regions), and local administrations, and representatives of Germany’s Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ).
The discussion included an introduction of CIMMYT and an overview of its global impact, history, and current activities in Ethiopia. An overview of the ADAPT-Wheat project’s objectives, outputs, activities, impact pathways, partners and management was also presented in the forum.
Participants also discussed the key agronomy, breeding, and mechanization activities that will be assessed, validated, scaled up, and scaled out during the project in seven districts, two in the Afar region and five in the Oromia region.
“The inception and planning workshop has a common understanding on how to tackle the bottlenecks ahead of the implementation of the project. The forum was a good opportunity for implementing partners to make a commitment for the new project by realizing the contribution of lowland irrigated wheat in achieving the goal of wheat self-sufficiency by 2023,” Bekele said.
The developing world’s appetite for wheat is growing swiftly, driven in part by rising incomes, rapid urbanization and the expansion of families where both spouses work outside the house, according to a recent seminar by two international experts.
“Our research is picking up significant shifts in demand among cereals, including the increasing popularity of wheat in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa,” said Khondoker Mottaleb, socioeconomist for the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), speaking at a seminar at the center on December 11, 2018.
In preliminary results of a study using household data from six countries in Asia and five in sub-Saharan Africa, Mottaleb and his associate, Fazleen Binti Abdul Fatah, senior lecturer at the University of Technology MARA, Malaysia, found that the households of both regions will eat more wheat by 2030, mainly in place of rice in Asia and of maize and other coarse grain cereals in Africa.
Speedy urbanization, higher incomes, population growth, and allied lifestyle changes are all driving this trend, said Fazleen. “Many urban women are working, so families are transitioning to bread and other convenient wheat-based foods and processed foods.”
A typical case according to Mottaleb is that of Bangladesh, a country whose population at 160 million is half that of the United States but with a geographical area equivalent to the US state of Ohio. The per capita GDP of Bangladesh grew from US$360 to US$1,516 during 2000-2017, and more than 35 percent of the country’s inhabitants now live in cities.
Meeting demand for wheat in Bangladesh
A 2018 paper by Mottaleb and fellow CIMMYT researchers shows that wheat consumption will increase substantially in Bangladesh by 2030 and the country needs to expand production or increase imports to meet the growing demand.
“The country purchases nearly 70 percent of its wheat at an annual cost near or exceeding US$1 billion, depending on yearly prices,” said Mottaleb. “Wheat prices are relatively low and wheat markets have been relatively stable, but if yields of a major wheat exporting country suddenly fall, say, from pest attacks or a drought, wheat markets would destabilize and prices would spike, as occurred in 2008 and 2011.”
In a 2018 study, the United Kingdom’s Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) cautioned that declining wheat cropping area worldwide and significant stockpiling by China — which holds nearly half the world’s wheat stocks but does not export any grain — were masking serious risk in global wheat markets.
A recent report ranked Bangladesh as the world’s fifth largest wheat importer. Since 2014-15 domestic wheat consumption there has increased by 57 percent from 4.9 million metric ton to 7.7 million metric tons. Last December, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations forecast Bangladesh wheat import requirements of 6 million tons for this year — 34 percent above the previous five-year average following steady increases since 2012-13.
“The prevailing narrative has wealthier and more urban consumers shifting from basic foods to higher value foods, and this is doubtless occurring,” said Fazleen, “but our work shows a more nuanced scenario. In the traditional rice consuming economies in Asia, rural households are also eating more wheat, due to rapid dietary transformations.”
For Bangladesh, the researchers propose growing additional wheat on fallow and less-intensively-cropped land, as well as expanding the use of newer, high-yielding and climate-smart wheat varieties.
“Our work clearly shows the rising popularity of wheat across Asia and Africa,” said Mottaleb. “We urge international development agencies and policymakers to enhance wheat production in suitable areas, ensuring food security for the burgeoning number of people who prefer wheat and reducing dependence on risky wheat grain markets.”
In addition to the paper cited above, Mottaleb and colleagues have published recent studies on Bangladesh’s wheat production and consumption dynamics and changing food consumption patterns.
The authors thank the CGIAR Research Program on Wheat for its support for these studies.