“The world is in the middle of a food crisis, driven by the supply chain disruptions during and post-Covid, climate change with increased storms, temperatures, and drought, and the Russia-Ukraine crisis, leading to a shortage of fertilizers for food crop production, which have all led to the high cost of food,” said Govaerts, highlighting that smallholders are dealing with multiple challenges at once.
He continued by describing how the aforementioned challenges to food security are worsening poverty for vulnerable people in Africa, especially smallholder farmers.
However, harnessing the continent’s potential for food production could help to alleviate poverty and food insecurity. Govaerts cited examples of where smallholder farmers have returned to producing nutritious indigenous crops such as millet, sorghum, guinea corn, groundnut, cowpeas and chickpeas, which are reaping tremendous results.
Through investments in crops, farming practices, and agricultural technologies, the potential for food production in Africa can have a huge impact on hunger and poverty.
Agriculture is always impacted by war. However, Russia’s war in Ukraine, fought between two major agricultural producers in an era of globalized markets, poses unprecedented implications for global agriculture and food security. Russia and Ukraine are significant exporters of maize, wheat, fertilizers, edible oils and crude oil. These exports have been compromised by the war, with the greatest impact being on poor and low-income countries that rely most on food imports. Partly because of the Ukraine-Russia conflict and partly due to the decline in agricultural production caused by the climate emergency, food prices have increased between 9.5 and 10.5 percent over the past ten years.
Nepal, where one in four families is impoverished, is an example of a low-income country impacted by the war’s disruption of trade in agricultural goods and inputs. Although wheat, maize and rice are staples, vegetables are also important for nutrition and income, and Nepal imports fuel and fertilizer for their domestic production. Uncertainty in global supply chains, combined with the Nepali rupee’s significant depreciation against the US dollar, has resulted in a 500% increase in the cost of diesel since 2012.
Irrigation to boost homegrown production
Land irrigation is crucial to crop growth and to the capacity of famers to withstand the effects of the climate emergency and economic shock. However, the majority of Nepal’s groundwater resources are underutilized, leaving ample room for increasing climate-resilient agricultural production capable of withstanding an increasing number of drought events. With the right kind of management of its groundwater, Nepal can increase its domestic output, and bolster smallholder resilience and food security in times of economic and climate crisis.
As part of the first prong of this approach, the Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia (CSISA) advises farmers (particularly women), governments and donors on the targeted support available to enable them to access existing low-cost and fuel-efficient engineering solutions. These solutions can contribute to the immediate goals of increasing agricultural productivity, intensifying groundwater irrigation and improving rural livelihoods. CSISA informs small producers about ways to access irrigation and develop water entrepreneurship. It also and empowers farmers, especially women, to improve service provision and gain access to services and irrigation pumps, including through access to finance.
Policymakers, businesses, researchers and farmers (especially women, youth and marginalized groups) will collaborate to co-create business models for sustainable and inclusive irrigation with development partners and Nepali public and private sector actors. While there are more than one million wells and pumps in Nepal, many of these are not used efficiently, and social barriers often preclude farmers from accessing services such as pump rentals when they need them. To address these constraints and support private investment in irrigation and water entrepreneurship models, CSISA will work with existing infrastructure investment programs and local stakeholders to build a dynamic and more inclusive irrigation sector over the course of the next year, positively impacting a projected 20,000 small farming households.
At the macro-level, these water entrepreneurship models will respond to prioritized irrigation scaling opportunities, while at the farm level they will respond to irrigation application scheduling advisories. CSISA will also create policy brief documents, in the form of an improved farm management advisory, to be distributed widely among partners and disseminated among farmers to support increases in production and resilience. CSISA’s sustainable and inclusive irrigation framework guides its crisis response.
Scaling digital groundwater monitoring to support adaptive water management
In growing resilience-building irrigation investments, there is always a risk of groundwater depletion, which means that accurate and efficient groundwater data collection is vital. However, Nepal doesn’t currently have a data or governance system for monitoring the impact of irrigation on groundwater resources.
To tackle the need for low-cost, context-specific data systems which improve groundwater data collection, as well as mechanisms for the translation of data into actionable information, and in response to farmer, cooperative and government agency stakeholder demands, the Government of Nepal Groundwater Resources Development Board (GWRDB) and CSISA have co-developed and piloted a digital groundwater monitoring system for Nepal.
In a recent ministerial level workshop, GWRDB executive director Bishnu Belbase said, “CSISA support for groundwater monitoring as well as the ongoing support for boosting sustainable and inclusive investments in groundwater irrigation are cornerstone to the country’s development efforts.”
A pilot study conducted jointly by the two organizations in 2021 identified several options for upgrading groundwater monitoring systems. Three approaches were piloted, and a phone-based monitoring system with a dashboard was evaluated and endorsed as the best fit for Nepal. To ensure the sustainability of the national response to the production crisis, the project will extend government monitoring to cover at least five Tarai districts within the Feed the Future Zone of Influence, collecting data on a total of 100 wells and conducting an assessment of potential network expansion in Nepal’s broad, inner-Tarai valleys and Mid-Hills regions. The goal is to utilize this data to strengthen the Feed the Future Zone of Influence in Nepal by increasing GWRDB’s capability to monitor groundwater in five districts.
Ensuring food security
These activities will be continued for next two years. During that time CSISA will increase GWRDB’s capacity to monitor groundwater and apply this to five districts in Nepal’s Feed the Future Zone of Influence, using an enhanced monitoring system which will assist planners and decision-makers in developing groundwater management plans. As a result, CSISA expects to support at least 20,000 farming households in gaining better irrigation access to achieve high yields and climate-resilient production, with 40 percent of them being women, youth and/or marginalized groups. This access will be made possible through the involvement of the private sector, as CSISA will develop at least two promising business models for sustainable and inclusive irrigation. Finally, through this activity government and private sector stakeholders in Western Nepal will have increased their capacity for inclusive irrigation and agricultural value chain development.
CSISA’s Ukraine Response Activities towards boosting sustainable and inclusive irrigation not only respond to crucial issues and challenges in Nepal, but will also contribute to the regional knowledge base for irrigation investments. Many regions in South Asia face similar challenges and the experience gained from this investment in Nepal will be applicable across the region. Given the importance of of groundwater resources for new farming systems and food system transformation, the project is mapped to Transforming Agrifood Systems in South Asia (TAFSSA), the One CGIAR regional integrated initiative for South Asia, that will act as a scaling platform for sharing lessons learned and coordinating with stakeholder regionally towards more sustainable groundwater management and irrigation investments.
Cover photo: Ram Bahadur Thapa managing water in his paddy field in Dailekh district of Nepal. (Photo: Nabin Baral)
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has impacted exports of wheat, barley and fertilizers, affecting food security in many regions that rely heavily on imports to access these products. The UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme predict that acute food insecurity will affect up to 205 million people by early 2023, with conditions deteriorating further in 19 countries.
Redesigning agricultural systems to solve this challenge must also take climate change into account: research published in Nature Food suggests that food systems cause a third of global greenhouse gas (GHG), while use and misuse of fertilizers, pesticides, energy, and water damages biodiversity.
The private sector is missing out on opportunities to invest in the agricultural sector and be part of the solution due to the challenges of putting a price on something like ‘protecting biodiversity’.
Director of CIMMYT’s global wheat program Alison Bentley says that while overseas development assistance and national governments provide significant support to the organization, private finance does play a role. “We have some really nice collaborations with the private sector, which allow us to access technology. The private sector, in the space of plant genetics and plant breeding, has pioneered some methodologies and technologies,” she tells GTR.
Bram Govaerts presents at Cereals and Grains 22. (Photo: María Itria Ibba/CIMMYT)
One of the biggest challenges facing the world today is how to balance a healthy diet for humans with agricultural production that is good for the environment. At the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), scientists work closely with farmers to achieve these aims and contribute towards food security, as well as improving their livelihoods and nutrition.
Govaerts explored the sensitivity of agricultural systems to the impacts of climate change, which in turn affects farmers’ ability to successfully produce crops and their capacity to meet rising global demand for food. However, agriculture itself is not immune from contributing towards climate change, currently accounting for 24% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
The effects of climate change are not the only pressure on agrifood systems, with other system shocks such as COVID-19 and conflict causing disruption to production and yields, prices, and supply chains, said Govaerts. For example, the current Ukraine crisis, which has heavily affected wheat imports and exports, underscores the need for long-term solutions to stabilize global food security. The encroaching cost of living crisis is adding further challenges to an already delicate situation, and hunger is predicted to increase across the Global South.
Investing in solutions
Research and development (R&D) has an essential role to play in addressing this crisis. Evidence shows that for every $1 USD invested in anticipatory action to safeguard lives and livelihoods, up to $7 USD can be saved by avoiding losses in disaster-affected communities. Simply put, proactive investment in agricultural science will save money in the long run by solving problems before they reach critical point.
CIMMYT’s R&D projects focus on extensive research on climate change adaptation and mitigation in maize and wheat-based production systems, helping smallholder farmers adapt to climate shocks and to raise and maintain yields in profitable and sustainable ways, and on capacity building for stakeholders in the development and application of new technologies.
Scientists are also harnessing the power of genebanks and breeding, focusing on safeguarding, characterization, and use of biodiversity to identify characteristics of seeds for genetic gain, adaptation to climate change, and better nutritional quality. This means farmers can access more and better seeds that respond to agrifood needs.
These innovations are only as effective as their level of adoption, which is why CIMMYT works closely with actors at all levels of agrifood systems.
Climate science at work in Africa
Govaerts shared examples of CIMMYT’s climate change adaptation and mitigation work include the introduction of drought-tolerant maize in Zimbabwe, which yielded more than 0.6 t/ha more than previous varieties. This equates to $240 USD more income per hectare, which provides nine months’ worth of additional food security at no extra cost.
In Malawi, drought-tolerant maize varieties planted under conservation agriculture yielded 66% more than non-tolerant varieties planted under conventional tillage. Farmers harvested more maize while spending on average 35-45 fewer days working in the field.
There is also an increase in popularity for stress-tolerant wheat varieties in Ethiopia, such as Danda’a, Kakaba, Kingbird and Pavon 76.
Scientists have also combined tropical fall armyworm (FAW)-resistant maize germplasm, from Mexico, with elite stress resilient germplasm developed in sub-Saharan Africa to successfully breed three FAW-tolerant elite maize hybrids. This is addressing the serious threat of FAW to maize production in eastern and southern Africa.
Transformation through partnership working
Following an Integrated Agrifood Systems Approach (IASA) has given CIMMYT significant edge by building effective partnerships with the public and private sector. Collaboration on responsible sourcing with Kellogg’s and Grupo Bimbo, as well as a new three-year partnership with Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) and Grupo Modelo to encourage water-conserving farming practices, will contribute to a one-system approach.
More than 18 million farmers worldwide benefit through CIMMYT’s improved maize and wheat system farming practices. With so much at stake for the entire world, CIMMYT has no plans to stop now.
The intersection between agriculture and peace has been brought to the forefront of the news agenda this year due to the Ukraine crisis, which has caused widespread disruption to wheat supply chains – disruptions that are contributing to food insecurity for millions of people worldwide.
Agriculture was therefore a compulsory topic for the International Week of Science and Peace, and formed the main theme for an online fireside chat between Bram Govaerts, Director General of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), and the Hon. Sharon Burke on November 8.
Burke was the director of New America’s Resource Security program and a senior advisor to New America’s Future of War project in the Department of Defense. She served in the administrations of Barack Obama, George W. Bush, and Bill Clinton.
Futureproofing security and food
“[Food] is a foundational element of all security,” explained Burke, when asked about the connection between the two. “We are facing global pressures. Everything that’s made us successful has also made us vulnerable – with biodiversity loss, with climate change. The challenge of having that foundational element of food security has never been harder than it is right now.”
This is a central vision of CIMMYT as a Wallace center, which Burke referenced to highlight how conflict and food insecurity drive one another: “It’s this terrible knot where things are connected. But when we add in climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution and other elements of our modern life, it’s more important than ever to understand how these elements fit together.”
“Peace, prosperity, and equity… are more relevant than ever in the environment we are working in,” agreed Govaerts.
Govaerts then invited Burke to offer recommendations for the development of CIMMYT’s new strategy. She suggested three points to consider:
How is climate change going to shift what agricultural production and productivity means – 10 years from now, 20 years from now, 30 years from now?
In that world, how does that reflect through your research and development priorities?
How do you continue to have that dialogue with farmers, so that you affect them, and they affect you, and what are the ways to make sure that you deepen that and the equity that’s inherent in that conversation?
Govaerts reflected on recent examples from history where conflict destabilized the global food system, such as the Arab Spring as provoked by consecutive droughts that heavily impacted wheat crops. Burke agreed that it was essential to build peace and secure food supplies simultaneously, always having peace as the end goal before any conflict even begins, and the importance of showing the systems effect to donors to encourage future investment.
“One of the reasons that I really love what CIMMYT does, is that you’re talking about not just food security as some abstract concept but as the people and the places where it’s created,” shared Burke.
CIMMYT’s role in peacebuilding
Burke highlighted the commitment from the United States Government to invest money in food security and food assistance, not just for necessary emergency aid but also for improving food production, farming, and last mile technology.
“How can we leverage this investment that is being made now in an emergency to be one that also builds resilience for this longer-term emergency that we are all facing?” she asked, encouraging research and development organizations to always evidence the impact of their work.
In her closing words, Burke expressed high levels of admiration for our scientists. “You get to actually touch the problem and deliver the solution and work in that two-way dialogue with farmers and that you get to bring that all together – how we think about a problem, how we come up with novel science and technology for solving the problem, and then you get to actually carry it to the field and make it work.”
“You’re not just thinking about peace or researching about peace – you’re delivering it!”
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine undoubtedly impacts food security, as these two countries are responsible for more than a quarter of wheat traded globally. Developing countries that rely heavily on wheat imports are most at risk from this supply disruption.
Set against an existing backdrop of food insecurity and increasing poverty, the conflict exacerbates present challenges. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) predicts that a further 11 to 19 million people will be experiencing chronic hunger by 2023, on top of the existing 193 million people facing food insecurity, and at least 47 countries are expected to fall short of the Zero Hunger target, one of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
In a study at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), scientists theorized that the domestic price of wheat is determined by the international price. Their hypothesis also supposed that wheat production is constant and that no significant change in wheat consumption habits is expected in the foreseeable future.
Schematic diagram on the relationship between export-import price, producer price, and wheat consumption.
Scientists discovered that a 1 percent decrease in the global wheat trade could increase the producers’ price by 1.1 percent in the countries sampled. Furthermore, a 1 percent increase in the producers’ price could reduce annual per capita wheat consumption by 0.59 percent, daily calorie intake by 0.54 percent and protein intake by 0.64 percent. A 50% reduction in Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports could increase prices by 15 percent, leading to an 8% reduction in wheat consumption and dietary energy intake.
Rising costs of staple foods such as wheat can lead to violence and social unrest, as witnessed in 2007-11. It is therefore vital to ensure that import-dependent, resource-poor countries are supported to address their precarious food security. Steady public funding, investment in research, and enhanced production in wheat-growing nations can play an integral role in achieving a solution. In the long-term, closing the yield gap through research and investment, particularly in Africa, will lead towards self-sufficiency in wheat in Africa, contributing towards overall food security across the continent.
South Asian countries may see fertilizers scarcity in the next crop cycle as a result of the conflict situation in Ukraine and Russia, cautioned Bram Govaerts, Director General of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT) and the Borlaug Institute for South Asia (BISA).
The triple threat of climate change, COVID-19 and the conflict between Ukraine and Russia is exacerbating the challenge of how to feed the world, explained Govaerts.
Policy changes had the potential to address the crises, but investing in research and innovation is a fundamental part of solving the current challenges.
As the Russia-Ukraine war continues to degrade global food security, the Australian who leads the global effort on improving wheat production has set out the concrete actions needed by governments and investors to mitigate the food crisis, stabilise supply and transition to greater agrifood system resilience.
Alison Bentley leads the Global Wheat Program at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), the renowned research organisation from which more than 90 per cent of the wheat varieties grown in Australia can be traced. She will be addressing the Crawford Fund’s international conference Celebrating Agriculture for Development – Outcomes, Impacts and the Way Ahead this week in Parliament House, Canberra. The conference will also be addressed by the Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Senator The Hon, Murray Watt.
“The broad food security impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war highlight the fragility of the global food supply, but the war is only one of a multitude of problems that we’ll be facing for many years to come. Few will remain unaffected,” said Alison Bentley, who was the lead author in a recently published related article in Nature Food.
“More than 2.5 billion people worldwide consume wheat-based foods. We need to move beyond defining the problem to implementing practical actions to ensure stable food supply, safeguard the livelihoods of millions of vulnerable people and bring resilience to our global agrifood system, and we will all benefit,” she said.
“The first priority is to mitigate the immediate crisis by boosting wheat production by bundling existing agronomic and breeding improvements and sustainable farming practices, just as Australia and other wealthy countries are doing. This will reduce dependence on imported grain and fertilizer in poorer countries.”
“We have learned since the Green Revolution that this must be done within agro-ecological boundaries, with high-yielding disease-resistant wheat and by mainstreaming capacity for pest and disease monitoring. Importantly, we also need to address climate change, gender disparities, nutrition insufficiency and increase investment in agricultural research,” she concluded.
The Fund’s annual conference will bring together international and Australian specialists to look at the mutual benefit and impacts of investment in global food security and poverty alleviation, and consider the effects of emerging threats including climate change and changing geo-political conditions on agricultural production, food chains and the environment.
Other speakers include international affairs specialist Allan Gyngell, climate change and security specialist Robert Glasser and renowned international economist Phil Pardey.
As we respond to this emergency, there is an opportunity—and a need—to strengthen the kind of strategic investments that will make our agrifood systems resilient to tomorrow’s shocks. “We cannot be running crisis to crisis,” says Bram Govaerts, Director General of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, or CIMMYT, in this week’s New Security Broadcast. “We need to look at the underlying elements that are provoking these ripple effects.”
On the episode, ECSP Director Lauren Risi and ECSP Advisor Sharon Burke speak with Govaerts and his colleague Kai Sonder, head of CIMMYT’s Geographic Information System Unit, about how to address the unfolding food crisis as we simultaneously build food system resilience in the medium and long term. Drawing from their newly-published article in Nature Food, Govaerts and Sonder share approaches that governments, civil society, and private actors can take to tackle today’s wheat supply disruptions and food insecurity. They also share past success stories and lay out key challenges moving forward.
Beyond the immediate humanitarian aid needed to boost food security, Govaerts identifies intensified wheat production and greater investments in local cereals as essential short-term priorities. Medium-term investments should focus on agricultural production that is agroecologically suitable, policies that support the adoption of improved crop varieties, and data analysis to target the vulnerabilities of smallholder farmers. And with long term goals in mind, Govaerts says that we need to ask “how can we enhance our ecosystem diversity, resolve the gender disparity [in the agricultural sector] and invest in agrifood transformation from efficiency to resilience?”
Both experts emphasize that these approaches aren’t meant to be taken incrementally. “We’re really saying we need to start today, taking actions with an impact on the short, medium, and long term. It would be a mistake to only focus on the short-term actions that need to be taken,” says Govaerts.
Sonder acknowledges that transforming agricultural systems takes time—and isn’t easy. “You need to invest in breeding systems. You need to build capacity and identify areas where that is easily possible,” he explains. “Bringing out a new variety of wheat or maize or other crop takes up to ten years.”
Introducing new farming technologies can also come with challenges, since it requires making sure those technologies can actually be maintained. “You have to ensure that there are mechanics who can fix [them] quickly, that there’s a supply chain for spare parts,” observes Sonder. And securing sustained large-scale investment for research or program activities can prove difficult, as was the case for a study CIMMYT did on the potential for wheat in Africa. “The ministers were very interested,” Sonder says. “But other crisis come along, and then the funds go somewhere else.”
Despite the hurdles, there are plenty of examples of agrifood interventions with positive impact. For instance, one of CIMMYT’s current areas of work is in developing risk assessment and disease warning systems to allow people to act quickly before a crisis occurs. Sonder describes how his colleagues in Ethiopia had a recent success in identifying a risk of rust epidemic in collaboration with the government and stakeholders on the ground by using weather models. The joint effort allowed the government “to procure and to spread fungicides and to be prepared for that crisis,” he says.
Addressing the challenges that underlie world hunger will take both this kind of strategic medium-term action as well as longer-term transformations—Even as we respond to the current hunger crisis with much-needed short-term efforts, we can also be reshaping our global agricultural systems for a more biodiverse, equitable, and resilient future.
Over the years, wheat-based foods have increasingly been incorporated as part of Kenyan meals. One example is packaged bread, which has become a common feature on Kenyan breakfast tables with millions of loaves from industrial bakeries delivered to retail shops daily, countrywide. Another example is chapati — a round unleavened flat bread. Once reserved for special occasions, chapati can now be purchased from roadside venders throughout the capital Nairobi.
Millers and processors in Kenya are highly dependent on imported wheat to meet the strong demand for wheat-based food products. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, two of the most important sources of imported wheat for Kenya, presents a major threat to millers and industrial bakeries. Prices for bread and chapati are increasing and may continue to increase. Governments and wheat-related industries are looking at short- and long-term options to reduce utilization of imported wheat. One short-term option is the blending of wheat flour with flour derived from locally available crops, such as cassava, millet or sorghum.
Record-high price of wheat
A sign at a flour mill in East Africa shows proportions of wheat from different origins (Argentina, Russia, Ukraine and local) used in that particular day’s production. (Photo: Alison Bentley/CIMMYT)
A visit to local industrial bakeries and wheat flour millers on the outskirts of Nairobi by International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) researchers confirmed the effects of record-high global prices of wheat. Global Wheat Program director Alison Bentley and senior economist Jason Donovan had conversations with leaders of industrial bakeries and millers, who gave insights into their grain demands, production processes and sales volumes.
One of the leaders of an established industrial bakery divulged that they use approximately 15,000 tons of wheat flour monthly to make baked products, with only 10% of the wheat obtained locally.
“In the last ten years, local wheat production has comprised about ten to fifteen percent of our cereal mixture for bread, and we were already paying higher prices to farmers compared to import prices. The farmers were already being paid about 30 to 40 dollars more per ton,” a manager of a large baking industry in Kenya explained to the CIMMYT team.
According to government regulations, millers and bakeries must purchase locally produced wheat at agreed prices before they can buy imported wheat. He agreed that though the quality of local wheat is good, the local production cannot compete with the higher volume of imported wheat or its lower price.
Growing wheat in East Africa
It has been more than four months since the Russia-Ukraine conflict unfolded, and since then prices of wheat-based products have been increasing significantly. The current crisis has sparked the debate on low levels of self-sufficiency in food production for many countries. And this is especially the case for wheat in Kenya, and more widely in Africa.
Bentley points out that the biophysical conditions to produce wheat in East Africa are present and favorable. However, more work is needed to strengthen local wheat production, starting with efficient seed systems. Farmers who are interested in growing wheat need access to high performing and stress-tolerant wheat varieties.
CIMMYT Global Wheat Program director, Alison Bentley, observes the bread making process at an industrial bakery on the outskirts of Nairobi, Kenya. (Photo: Susan Otieno/CIMMYT)
Practical response to the crisis
With no certainty as to how long the conflict will continue and climate change resulting in significant crop loss in key production zones, wheat shortages on international markets could become a reality. Blending of wheat flour with locally available crops could be an option as an immediate response to the current scarcity of wheat in East Africa. “Blending [flour] is when for instance five percent of wheat flour is replaced with flour from a different crop such as sorghum or cassava,” Bentley explained.
Donovan added that, though it might seem like a small number, it becomes significant in consideration to the volume of wheat that industries use to make different products, translating into thousands of metric tons. He noted that blending flour therefore has the potential to create a win-win situtation, because it can boost the demand for local crops and address uncertainty and price volatility on international wheat markets.
Consumer acceptance of new products
Different types of flour on supermarket shelves in Kenya. (Photo: Pieter Rutsaert/CIMMYT)
During a full week of engagements with universities, partners, and industry experts in Kenya, the CIMMYT team explored the current interest of the sector in blending wheat flour. Several partners agreed that this could be a potential way forward for the grain industry but all highlighted one key element: the importance of consumer acceptance. If the functionality of the flour or taste would be negatively influenced by blending wheat flour, it would represent a no-go from the industry, even if blends would have higher nutritional benefits or lower prices. “This reinforces the need to understand consumer preferences and evaluate both the functionality of the flour to produce essential food products such as chapati or bread as well as the taste of those products,” Pieter Rutsaert explained.
CIMMYT researchers Sarah Kariuki and Pieter Rutsaert, both Markets and Value Chain Specialists, and Maria Itria Ibba, Head of the Wheat Quality Lab, are therefore engaging with local millers and universities in Kenya to design bread and chapati products derived from different wheat blends, to include blends comprised of 5%, 15% and 20% of cassava or sorghum. Lab testing and preliminary consumer testing will be used to identify the most promising products. These products will be taken to the streets in urban and peri-urban Nairobi to assess consumer tastes and preferences, through sensory analysis and at-home testing.
The market intelligence gained will offer foundational support for CGIAR’s Seed Equal Initiative to accelerate the growth of a demand-driven seed system. By gathering and analyzing consumer preferences on selected crops for blending, such as from farmers and milling industries, Donovan pointed out that CGIAR breeding will continue to make informed choices and prioritize breeding for specific crops, that seek to address specific challenges, therefore having greater impact.
Donovan noted that data and information from the studies will provide much needed evidence and fill information gaps that will support governments, millers, processors and farmers to make decisions in response to the evolving wheat crisis.
Empty shelfs in a Swiss grocery store. Photo Boris Dunand/Unsplash
The conflict in Ukraine has had a deeply destabilizing effect on the global wheat trade, causing unprecedented price volatility and uncertainty. As my colleagues and I have previously highlighted, the unintended consequences are likely to have outsized impacts on livelihoods in the Global South.
As the G7 group of nations recently acknowledged in a joint statement, the conflict is leading to steep price rises and increasing global food insecurity for millions, especially those most vulnerable, such as women and children.
In a new paper published in Nature Food, scientists and partners of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) present a package of applied solutions to respond to the crisis and ensure future wheat stability.
To stem the potential food crisis, food is needed in more places, and faster.
Recently announced talks between Russia, Turkey, Ukraine and the United Nations, among other negotiations, are already underway as part of this international effort to develop short-term solutions.
However, at present we are seeing the brakes applied in several places. For example, in India century-high temperature extremes have recently reduced official wheat production estimates by 6 percent, leading to reduced export potential. This shows the compounding effect of climatic instability on global wheat markets, an impact that is expected to worsen over time.
In our solutions agenda, we propose a package of short-, medium- and longer-term actions and urge immediate and sustained support for shockproofing major food security staple crops, including wheat.
In the short term, the priority is mitigation of food security shocks through boosting production in existing high- and low-productivity areas, ensuring access to grain, and making use of flour substitution.
In the medium term, we must increase the local, regional, and global resilience of wheat supply through targeted expansion (within agro-ecological boundaries), support for self-sufficiency, comprehensive technical support in production systems, and mainstreamed crop monitoring capacity.
In the longer term, the transition to agri-food system resilience will need to encompass agroecosystem diversity, address gender disparities in agriculture and rural communities, and sustain an increased investment in a holistic, agri-food transition.
Conflict is being waged on wheat on multiple fronts: on battlefields, in the political arena and by our changing climate. Together these factors interact and amplify the threat to staple wheat production. To address this complexity, we now need to move beyond defining the problem to implementing practical action to ensure stable supply.
Wheat at a CIMMYT field trial. (Photo: H. Hernandez Lira/CIMMYT)
As the Russia-Ukraine war continues to degrade global food security, a new analysis lays out concrete actions that governments and investors must do now to mitigate near-term food security risks and stabilize wheat supplies, while transitioning toward long-term resilience.
“The Russia-Ukraine war will impact global food security over months — if not years,” said CIMMYT Global Wheat Program Director and lead author Alison Bentley. “We now need to move beyond defining the problem to implementing practical actions to ensure stable supply, safeguard the livelihoods of millions of vulnerable people and bring resilience to our global agrifood system.”
The war in Ukraine and trade sanctions against Russia are triggering a level of volatility that could easily overwhelm existing mitigation mechanisms. More than 2.5 billion people worldwide consume wheat-based foods; those in lower- to middle-income countries dependent on imports from Russia and Ukraine are particularly affected. Some of the world’s poorest countries, such as Bangladesh, Sudan and Yemen, rely heavily on Russian and Ukrainian wheat. Given the highly interconnected nature of contemporary agrifood systems, few will remain unaffected by this new global food shock.
Mitigate the immediate crisis
The first priority, according to the authors, is to mitigate the immediate crisis by boosting wheat production in existing high- and low-productivity areas, ensuring grain access and blending wheat flour with other low-cost cereals. Bundled agronomic and breeding improvements and sustainable farming practices can reduce dependence on imported grain and fertilizer, while coordinated, multilateral policies can help conserve grain stocks for human consumption and avert trade restrictions.
Increase the resilience of wheat supply
In the medium term, the authors emphasized the need to increase the local, regional, and global resilience of the wheat supply. This can be done by expanding production within agro-ecological boundaries, supporting national wheat self-sufficiency and providing technical assistance, to increase the production of high-yielding disease-resistant wheat and to mainstream capacity for pest and disease monitoring.
Transition to system-level resilience
Finally, to reach crucially needed resilience in the world’s agrifood system, long-term measures must be taken that encompass agroecosystem diversity, address gender disparities in agriculture and rural communities and sustain increased investment in a holistic, agrifood transition.
“The current global food crisis underscores and compounds existing inequalities in our global food system,” Bentley said. “A transition to agrifood system resilience requires us to urgently balance global food supply needs with the multi-layered challenges of climate change, achieving gender equity, nutritional sufficiency and livelihood security.”
The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) is an international organization focused on non-profit agricultural research and training that empowers farmers through science and innovation to nourish the world in the midst of a climate crisis.
Applying high-quality science and strong partnerships, CIMMYT works to achieve a world with healthier and more prosperous people, free from global food crises and with more resilient agrifood systems. CIMMYT’s research brings enhanced productivity and better profits to farmers, mitigates the effects of the climate crisis, and reduces the environmental impact of agriculture.
CIMMYT is a member of CGIAR, a global research partnership for a food secure future dedicated to reducing poverty, enhancing food and nutrition security, and improving natural resources.
Wheat leaves showing symptoms of heat stress. (Photo: CIMMYT)
Across South Asia, including major wheat-producing regions of India and Pakistan, temperature extremes are threatening wheat production. Heatwaves have been reported throughout the region, with a century record for early onset of extreme heat. Monthly average temperatures across India for March and April 2022 exceeded those recorded over the past 100 years.
Widely recognized as one of the major breadbaskets of the world, the Indo-Gangetic Plains region produces over 100 million tons of wheat annually, from 30 million hectares in Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan, primarily supporting large domestic demand.
The optimal window for wheat planting is the first half of November. The late onset of the 2021 summer monsoon delayed rice planting and its subsequent harvest in the fall. This had a knock-on effect, delaying wheat planting by one to two weeks and increasing the risk of late season heat stress in March and April. Record-high temperatures over 40⁰C were observed on several days in March 2022 in the Punjabs of India and Pakistan as well as in the state of Haryana, causing wheat to mature about two weeks earlier than usual.
In-season changes and effects
Prior to the onset of extreme heat, the weather in the current season in India was favorable, prompting the Government of India to predict a record-high wheat harvest of 111 million tons. The March heat stress was unexpected and appears to have had a significant effect on the wheat crop, advancing the harvest and likely reducing yields.
Departure of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) during the period from March 22 to April 7 from the average of the previous five years. The NDVI is a measure of the leaf area and the greenness of vegetation. The yellow areas in the Punjabs of India and Pakistan, as well as in the state of Haryana, indicate that wheat matured earlier than normal due to elevated temperatures. Maximum temperatures reached 40⁰C on March 15 and remained at or above this level throughout the wheat harvesting period. (Map: Urs Schulthess/CIMMYT).
In the North-Western Plains, the major wheat basket of India, the area of late-sown wheat is likely to have been most affected even though many varieties carry heat tolerance. Data from CIMMYT’s on-farm experiments show a yield loss between 15 to 20% in that region. The states of Haryana and Punjab together contribute almost 30% of India’s total wheat production and notably contribute over 60% of the government’s buffer stocks. In the North-Eastern Plains, in the states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, around 40% of the wheat crop was normal or even early sown, escaping heat damage, whilst the remainder of late-sown wheat is likely to be impacted at a variable level, as most of the crop in this zone matures during the third and fourth week of March.
The Government of India has now revised wheat production estimates, with a reduction of 5.7%, to 105 million tons because of the early onset of summer.
India has reported record yields for the past 5 years, helping it to meet its goal of creating a reserve stock of 40 million tons of wheat after the 2021 harvest. It went into this harvest season with a stock of 19 million tons, and the country is in a good position to face this year’s yield loss.
In Pakistan, using satellite-based crop monitoring systems, the national space agency Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SPARCO) estimated wheat production reduction close to 10%: 26 million tons, compared to the production target of 29 million tons, for the 2021-22 season.
We recommend that systematic research be urgently undertaken to characterize and understand the impacts of elevated temperatures on the health of field-based workers involved in wheat production. This is needed to develop a holistic strategy for adapting our global cropping systems to climate change.
India had pledged to provide increased wheat exports to bolster global supplies, but this now looks uncertain given the necessity to safeguard domestic supplies. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Indian government supported domestic food security by providing free rations — mainly wheat and rice — to 800 million people over several months. This type of support relies on the availability of large buffer stocks which appear stable, but may be reduced if grain production and subsequent procurement levels are lower than desired.
We are already seeing indications of reduced procurement by governments with market prices running higher than usual. However, although the Food Corporation of India has procured 27% less wheat grain in the first 20 days of the wheat procurement season compared to the same period last year, the Government of India is confident about securing sufficient wheat buffer stocks.
As with the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, it is likely that the most marked effects of both climate change and shortages of staple crops will hit the poorest and most vulnerable communities hardest.
A chain reaction of climate impacts
The real impacts of reduced wheat production due to extreme temperatures in South Asia demonstrate the realities of the climate emergency facing wheat and agricultural production. Direct impacts on farming community health must also be considered, as our agricultural workforce is pushed to new physical limits.
Anomalies, which are likely to become the new normal, can set off a chain reaction as seen here: the late onset of the summer monsoon caused delays in the sowing of rice and the subsequent wheat crop. The delayed wheat crop was hit by the unprecedented heatwave in mid- to late March at a relatively earlier stage, thus causing even more damage.
Preparing for wheat production tipping points
Urgent action is required to develop applied mitigation and adaptation strategies, as well as to plan for transition and tipping points when key staple crops such as wheat can no longer be grown in traditional production regions.
A strategic design process is needed, supported by crop and climate models, to develop and test packages of applied solutions for near-future climate changes. On-farm evidence from many farmers’ fields in Northwestern India indicates that bundled solutions — no-till direct seeding with surface retention of crop residues coupled with early seeding of adapted varieties of wheat with juvenile heat tolerance — can help to buffer terminal heat stress and limit yield losses.
Last but not least, breeding wheat for high-temperature tolerance will continue to be crucial for securing production. Strategic planning needs to also encompass the associated social, market and political elements which underpin equitable food supply and stability.
Wheat fields in Kostanay, Kazakhstan. (Photo: M. DeFreese/CIMMYT)
A panel of experts convened by the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars on April 13, 2022, discussed the effects that the Russia-Ukraine war could have on global supply chains of critical resources including staple crops, oil and natural gas, and strategic minerals.
Bram Govaerts, director general of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), joined three experts representing a security consulting firm, a mining investment company and the academic sector. They analyzed the complex ramifications of the armed conflict and put forward policy recommendations to mitigate its impact on global food and energy systems.
“We have immediate action to take in order to boost the production of crops with fewer resources available, such as fertilizers,” Govaerts said, reflecting on how to help food-insecure countries in the Middle East and North Africa that import most of their wheat supplies from the Black Sea region. “We also need to look at where we are going to be supplied with alternate sources,” he added.
Govaerts took this opportunity to position Agriculture for Peace, the CIMMYT-led call for secure, stable and long-term investment in agricultural research for development, to transform global food systems by shifting their focus from efficiency to resilience.
The war in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia will disrupt wheat supply chains, fertilizer exports and other components of food systems. Their combined effect, along with other factors, could unchain a major food security crisis as well as increased inequality.
Explore our analysis and coverage on major media outlets and journals. To get in touch with our experts, please contact the media team.
CIMMYT scientists have also made available a summary of key facts and figures about the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on wheat supply (PowerPoint, 32MB): changing patterns of consumption and effect on food prices, geographic export supply concentration, global wheat imports, and specific vulnerabilities particularly in the Global South.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict will cause massive disruptions to global wheat supply and food security. Agricultural research investments are the basis of resilient agri-food systems and a food-secure future.
War highlights the fragility of the global food supply — sustained investment is needed to feed the world in a changing climate, Alison Bentley explains on Nature.
A new Bloomberg op-ed urges nations to steer more money to organizations like CIMMYT that are advancing crucial research on how to grow more resilient wheat and maize crops in regions that are becoming steadily less arable.
The war in Ukraine, coupled with weather-related disruptions in the world’s major grain-producing regions, could unleash unbearable humanitarian consequences, civil unrest, and major financial losses worldwide, say Sharon E. Burke (Ecospherics) and Bram Govaerts (CIMMYT) on The Boston Globe.
