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East African wheat breeding pipeline and E&SSA network

Written by Julian Bañuelos-Uribe on . Posted in Blogs.

Healthy wheat and wheat affected by Ug99 stem rust in farmer’s field, Kenya. (Photo: CIMMYT)

The East African wheat breeding pipeline aims to improve wheat varieties and contribute to regional food security by ensuring a stable and resilient wheat supply. In 2022, CIMMYT, in partnership with the Kenya Agriculture and Livestock Research Organization (KALRO) established a Joint Breeding Program in Njoro, a town southwest of the Rift Valley in Kenya. This was one of the first integrated breeding pipelines between CGIAR and National Agricultural Research and Extension Systems (NARES) partners.

Over the last three decades, genetic trials of over 77 varieties have been conducted in several regions. In East Africa, an expanded testing network that spans over multiple research institutes in Kenya and Ethiopia has been established for Stage 1 and Stage 2 trials in network countries. This makes the pipeline a powerful driver of positive impacts, rapidly enhancing both farm productivity and production in target regions. In Kenya specifically, a genetic gain trial was conducted at two sites in 2023 with the Stage 1 trials evaluated across eight locations. These are being distributed to NARES partners to establish correlations between the breeding site in Kenya and the Target Population of Environments (TPEs) in the E&SSA regions. This breeding pipeline demarcates the population improvement from product development. Other areas in the trials include the enhancement of genetic diversity to build resilience, adaptability, and quality enhancement to meet market and consumer demands.

The trial will continue in 2024 and 2025 to establish a baseline for genetic gains and to enable the assessment of the breeding pipeline’s progress in the coming years. The first cohort of pipeline materials (250 crosses) has been advanced to F2 generation and will be ready for distribution to E&SSA partners in 2025.

Accelerated breeding

The anticipation is that accelerated breeding techniques will be implemented in Kenya by incorporating a three-year rapid generation bulk advancement (RGBA) scheme aimed at diminishing the time necessary for variety development and release. This collaborative effort encompasses various activities, including joint crossing block, generation advancement, yield testing, and population improvement. The three-year RGBA scheme, coupled with data-driven selection utilizing advanced data analytics (GEBV, SI) and genomic selection approaches, is expected to play a pivotal role in facilitating informed breeding decisions in the East African region.

3-year RGBA scheme. (Photo: Sridhar Bhavani)

Varietal improvement

The project aims to develop and release improved wheat varieties that are well adapted to the East African agroecological conditions. The Kenyan environment closely mirrors wheat-growing conditions in Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi, and spillover impacts to sub-Saharan countries such as Zambia and Zimbabwe. This strategic alignment with local conditions and close cooperation with NARES partner organizations has proven to be very effective in addressing critical gaps, including high-yield potential, disease resistance, and climate resilience, and aligns with CIMMYT’s overall wheat strategy for Africa.

Enhanced disease resistance

Kenya stands out as a hotspot for rust diseases, showcasing notable diversity in stem rust variants (ug99) and yellow rust. The virulence spectrums of these diseases differ from those found in Mexico, posing challenges to effective breeding strategies. It is expected that the breeding pipeline will effectively tackle these challenges as well as those associated with fusarium, Septoria, and wheat blast, which are on the rise in African environments.

Climate adaptation

The East African wheat breeding pipeline is committed to breeding wheat varieties that can thrive in changing climatic conditions, including heat and drought tolerance, and expanding testing in marginal rainfed environments experiencing heat and drought stress.

Through the support of our partners and funders from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research (FFAR), and Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office FCDO, the following achievements can be reported:

Regional collaboration and cooperation

For over four decades, the enduring collaboration with KALRO has yielded significant successes including the operation of the largest phenotyping platform for stem rust and various diseases. The Mexico-Kenya shuttle breeding program, incorporating Ug99 resistance, has successfully countered the threat of stem rust by releasing over 200 varieties in targeted regions and advancing the East African wheat breeding pipeline. The plan is to replicate these accomplishments in other target regions through the E&SSA network. To address limitations in KALRO’s breeding program and to conduct standardized trials, a strategic partnership with a private seed company Agventure Cereal Growers Association has been established. This collaboration will facilitate yield testing at multiple sites in Kenya to identify lines with superior performance for the East African region. So far, lines exhibiting high yield potential of up to 8 tons/ha, even under rain-fed environments, have been identified. The collaborative efforts are already making a noticeable impact, as evidenced by reports indicating increased adoption of zero-tillage practices among farmers. This shift has proven beneficial, especially during years marked by heat and drought challenges, resulting in higher returns for these farmers.

Increased capacity of national programs

From 1-13 October 2023, the AGGMW project held a training program on “Enhancing Wheat Disease Early Warning Systems, Germplasm Evaluation, Selection, and Tools for Improving Wheat Breeding Pipelines”. The course which brought together 33 participants from over 13 countries was held at the KALRO station in Njoro- Kenya. The comprehensive program covered a wide range of crucial subjects in the field of wheat breeding and research. Topics included breeding methodologies, experimental design, data collection, statistical analysis, and advanced techniques such as genomic selection. Participants also engaged in practical hands-on data analysis, explored rust pathology, and delved into early warning systems. Moreover, they had the opportunity for direct evaluation and selection of breeding materials. The course aimed to equip participants with a diverse skill set and knowledge base to enhance their contributions to the field of wheat breeding and research.

Other initiatives supporting the breeding pipeline include CGIAR programs, Accelerated Breeding and Crops to End Hunger. This multi-faceted approach within the breeding pipeline underpins the importance of fostering regional collaboration, knowledge sharing, and strategic investments in enhancing wheat production and addressing critical challenges in the region.

Market segmentation and Target Product Profiles (TPPs): developing and delivering impactful products for farming communities

Written by Julian Bañuelos-Uribe on . Posted in Blogs.

Experimental maize field. (Photo: CIMMYT)

With the ever-changing climate conditions, including the unpredictable El Niño, and dynamic changes in government policies, understanding farmers’ preferences and market segmentation has become crucial for implementing impactful breeding programs. Market segmentation is a strategic process which divides a market into distinct group of consumers with similar needs, preferences, and behaviors. This allows organizations to tailor their products and services to specific customer segments, thus ensuring maximum value and impact.

In today’s fast-paced and evolving agricultural landscape, market segmentation plays a vital role in helping organizations navigate the complexities of a dynamic market. CIMMYT’s maize breeding program has a successful track record in developing and delivering improved varieties that are climate-resilient, high-yielding and suited to the rainfed tropical conditions in Africa. To further strengthen the impact, it is important to have a clear understanding of the evolving needs of farmers in different agroecological regions and the emerging market scenario so that breeding processes can be tailored based on market needs and client requirements.

Questions arise on how to refine the breeding programs relative to country-specific market segments, what efforts are underway to target these markets, and how do these markets transition. Recognizing the importance of market segmentation in refining breeding programs at the country and regional levels, CIMMYT hosted two workshops on maize market intelligence in Kenya and Zimbabwe, under the CGIAR Market Intelligence Initiative for eastern and southern Africa.

“Market intelligence in breeding programs is critical to understand the evolving needs of key stakeholders, including farmers, consumers, and the seed industry. It helps continuously improve the breeding pipelines to develop and deliver impactful products in targeted market segments. The workshops brought together relevant experts from the national programs and seed companies for focused discussions to develop a harmonized breeding strategy. This would help to address the needs of smallholder maize farmers in eastern and southern Africa,” said Director of CIMMYT’s Global Maize program and One CGIAR Global Maize Breeding Lead, B.M. Prasanna.

B.M. Prasanna delivers a presentation. (Photo: CIMMYT)

The workshops constituted a strategic continuation of the Product Design Team (PDT) meetings under CGIAR Market Intelligence, with a focus on the refinement of gender-intentional target product profile design. Guided by the expertise of CIMMYT’s Global Maize program, Market Intelligence, and ABI-Maize Transform teams, the sessions saw active participation from key stakeholders including lead breeders, seed systems experts, and market specialists from the National Agricultural Research and Extension Systems (NARES), alongside collaborative engagement with seed company partners. The workshops underscored the commitment to incorporate diverse perspectives, aligning with the evolving maize market landscape in eastern and southern Africa.

“The workshop provided critical insights on opportunities to improve market penetration of improved maize varieties. There is a need to strike a balance between the needs of the farmers, seed industry, and consumers in variety development; actively involve farmers and consumers in variety selection and understanding their preferences; and focus on emerging needs of the market such as yellow maize for feed and food,” said James Karanja, maize breeding lead at the Kenya Agriculture & Livestock Research Organization, Kenya.

Insights from both workshops underscored the importance of providing breeders with pertinent information and comprehensive training. The discussions illustrated the necessity for breeders to define their objectives with a 360-degree outlook, aligning breeding programs with market segments and interfacing with CIMMYT’s regional vision.

Workshop participants. (Photo: CIMMYT)

“The market intelligence workshop is an excellent initiative for the breeding programs. It shows how traits can be identified and prioritized, based on farmers’ requirements. The maize value chain is broad, and the synergy between the developer of the product (breeder), the producer (farmer), and the consumer needs to be effective. Hence, streamlining of the market segments and eventually the target product profiles is key in ensuring that the breeders develop improved products/varieties with relevant traits that address the needs of farmers, consumers, and the seed industry,” said Lubasi Sinyinda, breeder from the Zambia Agricultural Research Institute, Zambia.

Another participant, Lucia Ndlala, a maize breeder at the Agricultural Research Council, South Africa, echoed similar enthusiasm. “The workshop was exceptionally informative, providing valuable insights into target product profiles and market segments. This knowledge will undoubtedly prove instrumental in shaping future breeding strategies,” she said.

When applied through a breeding lens, market segmentation is a vital tool in refining breeding programs at both country and regional levels, enabling breeders to better understand and address the diverse needs of the farmers, and ensuring that the improved varieties are tailored to market segments.

Exposing the potential of agricultural mechanization in India and Bangladesh

Written by Nur-A-Mahajabin Khan on . Posted in Blogs.

As geographical neighbors, Bangladesh and India share many characteristics in terms of land, weather, and food production. Because of these similarities, the Feed the Future Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia-Mechanization Extension Activity (CSISA-MEA) organized a series of exposure visits to India for Bangladeshi farmers and other agricultural stakeholders to establish market linkages, provide access to financial and technical advice.

The CSISA-MEA, funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) works to increase the usage of agricultural machinery to benefit farmers by increasing their productivity and efficiency. The Activity works with several stakeholders, including agriculture-based light engineering (ABLE) enterprises, dealers, and machinery solution providers (MSPs).

Over the course of the activity, a significant lesson learned is that both groups, the hosting party and the visiting party, benefit from exposure visits.

CSISA-MEA organized two international exposure visits to India in July 2023. A total of 34 participants in two cohorts visited India, 18 workers from Faridpur and Cox’s Bazar, and 16 from Bogura and Jashore.

The CSISA-MEA delegation from Bangladesh in Punjab, India visits the Borlaug Institute for South Asia (BISA) during the exposure visit. (Photo: Rowshon Anis, OMD, CSISA-MEA, iDE Bangladesh)

CSISA-MEA arranged the visits with the objective to familiarize Bangladesh ABLE enterprises with modern agri-machinery manufacturing and improve their working practices. The visits covered factories, ABLE workshops and foundries in Punjab, including Amargarh, Bamala, and Ludhiana, areas where India’s agriculture mechanization is most notable, and incorporated public and private sector companies, and academia including LANDFORCE, M/S Dasmesh Mechanical Works, Panesar Agriculture Works Pvt. Ltd., Sokhi Manufacturing Ltd., the Borlaug Institute for South Asia, and National Agro Industry.

Learnings from the exposure visit

The exposure visits have emphasized the importance of systematic line production for machinery and spare parts manufacturing to ensure efficiency and consistency in output. Quality control has been highlighted as a non-negotiable aspect, and the significance of delivering reliable and high-quality products. Using natural light and ventilation systems showcased the potential for environmentally friendly production facilities.

The visits also highlighted how maintaining proper occupational health and safety measures ensures the well-being of the workforce along with a gender inclusive environment in the agri-machinery factories. The factories have a significant female workforce, an eye-opening sight for the ABLE owners of Bangladesh.

These exposure visits have helped equip ABLE owners with invaluable insights and strategies for success in their agricultural machinery businesses, including building connections among themselves, such as that between two ABLEs from Jashore, Bangladesh to facilitate the production and supply of the fodder chopper–demonstrating the potential for cooperation to expand market reach.

Reflections from the visits

The trip to meet their Indian counterparts provided CSISA–MEA ABLE owners with invaluable insights and knowledge, with their unanimous feedback reflecting the profound impact of the visits, which they deemed truly eye-opening. Encouragingly, since their return, each ABLE enterprise has prepared action plans, taking proactive steps to implement the new techniques and business strategies they gained during their visit.

“I can’t express how thrilled I am to have unlocked the secrets behind the exceptional quality of Indian machines and spare parts. It’s not just a technical upgrade, it’s a commitment to quality products,” said Md. Ashraf Hosen, owner of M/S Ashraf Machinery & Akmol Engineering Workshop.

During the exposure visit, the CSISA-MEA team from Bangladesh visits the Sokhi Components in Ludhiana, Punjab, India. (Photo: Sokhi Components)

Another visitor, Md. Iqbal Hosen, proprietor of Titas Moulding & Engineering Works, said, “I found discovering new innovations very exciting, especially the core-making process, the mechanical mold-making process to reduce production costs, appropriate charge calculation techniques and induction furnaces. I’m determined to apply these things in my foundry, to improve the quality of the products and reduce production costs.”

Sarkar Agro-Engineering & Multiple Works in Bangladesh has displayed a commitment to implementing the key takeaways of the exposure visit to India. The owners have ensured natural light and ventilation in their production facilities, creating a more conducive and eco-friendlier working environment for staff. They have also installed a customized lathe machine, painting every part of a machine before assembling it, and manufacturing mini tractors, all because of their exposure visit.

CSISA–MEA staff have also taken something from the trips, including feedback to include demonstrations of forging machines in future visits to further extend the workforce’s technical knowledge. There are plans to visit local spare parts markets during the next expedition to provide participants with a broader understanding of market dynamics, while visits to solar power and battery-operated machinery companies would provide an opportunity to witness sustainable technologies in action.

Early maturity products popular among farmers in Kenya

Written by mcallejas on . Posted in Publications.

Across all production environments in Kenya, early-maturity products demonstrate strong sales. This was revealed in a recent study by the CGIAR Initiative on Market Intelligence. During the long-rains season, farmers in higher rainfall production environments—wet, mid and high altitudes—purchased early-maturity seed products despite potentially lower yields. Also, the short-rains season, which represents almost one-fourth of total maize seed sales, was dominated by early-maturity products.

These insights were obtained through a panel of maize-seed sales data from 722 agrodealers in Kenya during two short-rains seasons and three long-rains seasons in 2020–2022. The study also offers insights into the extent the maturity level of seed products, purchased by farmers in Kenya, aligns with the production environment where they were sold. Market Intelligence applies eight criteria to identify seed product market segments (SPMSs) for CGIAR crop breeding. In the application of these criteria to maize in East Africa, two conditions distinguish the segments: production environment and maturity level. The other criteria do not vary. A key indicator for prioritizing breeding investments across segments is the relative size of SPMSs. In the case of maize, and other crops, teams generally use geospatial data to identify the area of production environments, with the assumption that farmers in each production environment would use the seed product with the maturity level designed for that environment.

The paper contends that a stronger focus on using sales data to inform breeding decisions in maize, and potentially other crops where retailers play an important role in seed distribution, should become a priority for market intelligence. Future work will engage stakeholders in maize seed systems in other countries of East Africa about the changes in demand for earlier-maturing products and the implications for segmentation.

This article is adapted from Market Intelligence Brief 5: Maize Farmers Acquire Early-Maturity Seed Across Production Environments – the fifth paper in the ongoing peer-reviewed series published inMarket Intelligence Briefs.

*About Market Intelligence Briefs

The CGIAR Initiative on Market Intelligence (‘Market Intelligence’ for brevity) represents a new effort to engage social scientists, crop-breeding teams, and others to work together toward the design and implementation of a demand-led breeding approach. In 2022, the Market Intelligence Brief (MIB) series was created as a valuable communication tool to support informed decision making by crop breeders, seed-system specialists, and donors on future priorities and investments by CGIAR, NARS, the private sector, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs).

The author would like to thank all funders who supported this research through their contributions to the CGIAR Trust Fund. This project received funding from the Accelerating Genetic Gains in Maize and Wheat project (AGG) [INV-003439], funded by Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Foundation for Food & Agriculture Research (FFAR); United States Agency for International Development (USAID); and United Kingdom’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO).

Nepal maize farmers share vision of a more profitable future with visiting agriculture officials

Written by Julian Bañuelos-Uribe on . Posted in Blogs.

In a visit to 5 model sites for maize marketing in midwestern Nepal, 30 federal, provincial and local agricultural authorities were impressed with the coordination and capacity development among market actors, improved supply chain management and leveraging of government support, all of which are benefiting farmers and grain buyers.

Following visits to commercial maize fields and hearing stakeholders’ perceptions of progress and key lessons, the authorities proposed additional funding for irrigation, machinery, grain grading and crop insurance, among other support, and promised to help expand activities of the model sites, which were established as part of the Nepal Seed and Fertilizer (NSAF) project.

Led by CIMMYT with funding from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and in its second-last year of operation, the project is working to raise crop productivity, incomes and household food and nutrition security across 20 districts of Nepal, including 5 that were severely affected by the catastrophic 2015 earthquake and aftershocks which killed nearly 9,000 and left hundreds of thousands homeless.

Participants at Sarswoti Khadya Trader, Kohalpur, Banke. (Photo: CIMMYT)

The visitors included officials and experts from the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development (MoALD); the Department of Agriculture (DoA); the Ministry of Land Management, Agriculture and Cooperatives (MoLMAC); the Agriculture Development Directorates (ADD) for Lumbini and Sudurpaschim provinces; the Agriculture Knowledge Centres (AKC) of Banke, Kailali, Kanchanpur, Dang, and Kapilvastu districts; the Prime Minister Agriculture Modernization Project (PMAMP) offices of Dang and Bardiya; and the National Maize Research Program; the Department of Livestock Services; along with NSAF project team members.

The participants interacted with farmers, cooperative leaders, traders, rural municipality officials and elected representatives, and feed mill representatives. Sharing their experiences of behavioral change in maize production, farmers emphasized the benefits of their strengthened relationships with grain buyers and their dreams to expand spring maize cultivation.

Shanta Karki, deputy director the General of Department of the DoA lauded CIMMYT efforts for agriculture growth, improved soil fertility and sustainable agriculture development through NSAF.

Madan Singh Dhami, secretary, MoLMAC in Sudurpaschim Province, emphasized the importance of irrigation, building farmers’ capacities and interactions with buyers, and applying digital innovations to catalyze extension.

CIMMYT scientists have been based in CIMMYT’s office in Nepal and worked with Nepali colleagues for more than three decades to boost the productivity, profitability and ecological efficiency of maize- and wheat-based cropping systems and thus improve rural communities’ food security and livelihoods.

The need to consider biological actors as an influence when studying market agencies

Written by Julian Bañuelos-Uribe on . Posted in Publications.

How the living shapes markets: accounting for the action of biological entities in market agencing. Authors: Quentin Chance, Frédéric Goulet and Ronan Le Velly

This article uses research into the organic food market in France to show that biological factors can play an important part in influencing the structure and organization of markets. The authors use this to point out that while many studies of market agencing discuss in detail the role played by social and material agents, biological agents should be an equally important part of such research.

Over the last four decades, there has been considerable research into Actor-Network Theory (ANT), which looks at the effect of various agents on markets. However, in the majority of cases, the agents discussed have been material (for example, shopping trolleys) or social (human habits or economic motives). The research which forms the basis of this article was originally carried out as a study of how French organic-produce collectives tried to influence markets to suit their needs and ideals. On reviewing the data, it appeared to the authors that there were additional agents affecting their marketing, which derived from biological factors. Unlike the material and social agents, farmers were only able to control these biological factors with great difficulty, if at all. For example, the inability to use chemical inputs on crops meant that crop rotation over a multi-year period was essential; however, wholesalers’ traditional structures expected a farmer to supply the same produce in the same quantity year after year. In cases such as this, altered supply chain arrangements needed to be negotiated between the suppliers and the wholesalers.

The authors made four sets of observations showing the market-shaping effect of biological agents.

  • Measures taken by established organic farmers to avoid price competition from new market entrants — the well-established farmers had chosen to start growing crops which required more expertise, time or equipment (such as Belgian endives or onions), rather than less complex standard crops such as potatoes.
  • Biological processes which necessitate altering the traditional market production and supply structures — for example, the need for crop rotation as mentioned above.
  • Natural agents will affect crop yields and introduce variability in quality and quantity, which the market needs to allow for. The authors give examples of pests, viral infections and weather as agents that affect all farming, but in the case of organic farming are particularly troublesome.
  • After harvest, produce will naturally experience ripening/aging, and then degradation in quality. Standard industrial ways of controlling these biological processes utilize methods and agents that are unacceptable or even harmful when dealing with organic produce, for instance, spraying with chemicals.

Following these observations, the authors make a series of propositions and suggest research questions which could result from them, for instance:

  • How does the action of biological entities affect the establishment of market norms/the way prices are set?
  • How do representations of the market take account of biological processes?

In conclusion, the authors demonstrate how the effect of biological agents on markets is already inextricably intertwined with the effects of material and social agents. Future research, to be truly comprehensive, needs to look in equal depth at all other possible influences on the market.

A. G. Adeeth Cariappa

Written by Sarah McLaughlin on . Posted in Uncategorized.

Adeeth Cariappa is an Environmental and Resource Economist working on Carbon Credits from Agriculture. Before joining CIMMYT, Cariappa was working in the Agriculture & Allied Sectors Vertical of NITI Aayog (the premier thinktank for Government of India) and as a Consultant for Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Cariappa has a PhD in Agricultural Economics from the  ICAR-National Dairy Research Institute.

Temera Biswas

Written by Sarah McLaughlin on . Posted in Uncategorized.

Temera Biswas is Finance and Administrative Officer for the Sustainable Agrifood Systems (SAS) program in Bangladesh.

Biswas has an MBA in Accounting from the University of Dhaka and more than nine years’ experience working in international non-government organizations and foreign organizations in finance and administration. For the last five years she worked in accounts for World Vision Bangladesh in a project on Nutrition Sensitive Value Chains for Smallholder Farmers.

She has sound knowledge in computer operations, particularly in Microsoft Outlook, Excel and Word, and in various accounting software. She also has knowledge in processing payments, transactions and contracts for financial clearance and payment, vendor enlistment, planning, sourcing, negotiation with vendors and quality buying, as well as framework agreements for goods and services.

Grace Mwai

Written by Sarah McLaughlin on . Posted in Uncategorized.

Grace Mwai is an innovative and strategic leader with more than 18 years of progressive leadership experience in international development programs. She has spearhead implementation projects of US$23M-$320M funding, while leading teams across 19 countries with more than 14 international and bilateral donors. Mwai holds a Doctor of Business Administration, Masters of Science in Organization Development, Masters of Business Administration, and is a Certified Public Accountant and Corporate Governance Trainer.

She has a keen ability to identify inefficiencies and create sustainable systems enabling consistent, on-time completion, regardless of project complexity. Her lived experience on both sides of the donor and recipient dividing lines affords her a nuanced understanding of stakeholder needs and the intricacies of donor requirements.

Ramiro Ortega Landa

Written by Sarah McLaughlin on . Posted in Uncategorized.

Ramiro Ortega Landa is a rural finance specialist with CIMMYT’s Sustainable Agrifood Systems (SAS) program in Mexico. He provides strategic advice and implementation support to agri-value chains development, articulated to climate goals, and delivers results to CIMMYT’s Global South partners for increasing sustainable, inclusive, and resilient investments to comply with the Paris Agreement.

Landa also develops, implements and manages climate-finance related projects and initiatives that entail innovative financial approaches which harness the power of disruptive technologies and business models, as well as boosting the potential of partnership structures to bring together CIMMYT and the private sector to improving the contribution of climate finance to low emissions and resilient agri-value chain development.

He identifies and supports new and existing partnerships related to agri-value chain development and climate-finance opportunities and initiatives, and provides strategic insights on the latest developments in climate finance, covering private sector and financial actors.

Tackling wheat price rises instigated by conflict

Written by Sarah McLaughlin on . Posted in Publications.

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine undoubtedly impacts food security, as these two countries are responsible for more than a quarter of wheat traded globally. Developing countries that rely heavily on wheat imports are most at risk from this supply disruption.

Set against an existing backdrop of food insecurity and increasing poverty, the conflict exacerbates present challenges. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) predicts that a further 11 to 19 million people will be experiencing chronic hunger by 2023, on top of the existing 193 million people facing food insecurity, and at least 47 countries are expected to fall short of the Zero Hunger target, one of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

In a study at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), scientists theorized that the domestic price of wheat is determined by the international price. Their hypothesis also supposed that wheat production is constant and that no significant change in wheat consumption habits is expected in the foreseeable future.

Schematic diagram on the relationship between export-import price, producer price, and wheat consumption.

Scientists discovered that a 1 percent decrease in the global wheat trade could increase the producers’ price by 1.1 percent in the countries sampled. Furthermore, a 1 percent increase in the producers’ price could reduce annual per capita wheat consumption by 0.59 percent, daily calorie intake by 0.54 percent and protein intake by 0.64 percent. A 50% reduction in Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports could increase prices by 15 percent, leading to an 8% reduction in wheat consumption and dietary energy intake.

Rising costs of staple foods such as wheat can lead to violence and social unrest, as witnessed in 2007-11. It is therefore vital to ensure that import-dependent, resource-poor countries are supported to address their precarious food security. Steady public funding, investment in research, and enhanced production in wheat-growing nations can play an integral role in achieving a solution. In the long-term, closing the yield gap through research and investment, particularly in Africa, will lead towards self-sufficiency in wheat in Africa, contributing towards overall food security across the continent.

Read the study: Potential impacts of Ukraine-Russia armed conflict on global wheat food security: A quantitative exploration

This study was financially supported by the CGIAR Initiative on Foresight and Metrics for the Transformation of Food, Land and Water Systems (FMI). We would like to thank all funders who supported this research through their contributions to the CGIAR Trust Fund.

Cover photo: Scientists from CIMMYT’s Sustainable Agrifood Systems (SAS) program in wheat fields, Ethiopia. (Photo: Rabe Yahaya/CIMMYT)

From seed to feed

Written by Sarah McLaughlin on . Posted in News.

In 2022, more than 2,000 households participated in CIMMYT’s Maize Commercial Model program, doubling the number of farmers and area of maize produced compared to data from 2021. (Photo: Aayush Niroula/CIMMYT)

Experts at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) are working with partners to drive self-sufficiency in poultry feed and achieve more sustainable maize systems in Nepal thanks to the Nepal Seed and Fertilizer (NSAF) project.

About 3,000 metric tons (t) of poultry feed is used in Nepal every day, with maize making up about half of feed ingredients. The Feed Association of Nepal estimates that more than 80% of maize for animal feed requirements are met through imports, which costs around $100 million a year. Maize imports are estimated to exceed $130 million in 2022.

Through the NSAF project — a project which facilitates sustainable increases in Nepal’s national crop productivity, income and household-level food and nutrition security across 20 districts — CIMMYT scientists have been supporting public private partnerships to increase commercial maize production and strengthen the “seed to feed” chain in the country.

In the Terai region, huge swaths of land lie fallow in the spring season. Experts estimate that enough maize grain could be produced on this land to substitute about 40% of maize imports to the country. Increasing spring maize production in these fallow lands has been one of the goals of the NSAF team, as well as improving coordination between public and private sectors. To do this, the team have designed a multi-stakeholder engagement initiative to strengthen the seed to feed chain.

In December 2020, CIMMYT experts began the initiative to scale up the use of new maize hybrid varieties and improved agronomic practices. In the spring of 2022, CIMMYT researchers partnered with public and private organizations in Banke, Bardiya and Kailali to help commercialize hybrid maize production and strengthen maize value chain coordination in the region. Partners included integrated agriculture and livestock development offices in Bardiya, agriculture knowledge centers in Banke and Kailali, local governments, farmer cooperatives, seed companies, agro-dealers and feed mills.

Working with these partners, CIMMYT scientists also advanced efforts to improve the capacity of actors to increase efficiency in supply chains, production and marketing, provide local employment and strengthen the market for domestically produced maize for poultry feed.

As of September 2022, the following milestones have been achieved:

  • Provincial governments have established multi-stakeholder maize commercial networks at sites where maize actors and stakeholders participate to coordinate commercial maize production, access to support services and to link farmers and grain buyers.
  • In 2022, more than 2,000 households from 19 local government units produced maize on 547 ha in Banke, Bardiya and Kailali. The total maize production increased from 1390t in 2021 to 3,232t in 2022. This was an increase of 61% in the number of farmers and 52% in area. The value of maize sold also tripled from USD 306,900 in 2021 to USD 915,700 in 2022.
  • The farm gate price of maize by 22% and the Government of Nepal invested $2.37 million to support access to quality seed, agriculture machinery and irrigation facilities.
  • Farmers sold 500t maize grains to feed mills in 2022, a huge jump from only 30t in 2021.
  • In partnership with the Government of Nepal, CIMMYT researchers organized training programs for farmers in maize commercial network sites on production, post-harvest, exposure visits and marketing to prepare them to produce maize as per buyers’ requirements. They also guided farmers on how to access credit, crop insurance, and digital advisory services to further improve their production and marketing.
Maize constitutes about half of all poultry feed products in Nepal and maize imports for feed are estimated to be worth around $130 million in 2022. (Photo: Aayush Niroula/CIMMYT)

Next steps

CIMMYT scientists plan to double the number of districts under the maize commercialization model from three to six in 2023. The Department of Agriculture under the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development, and the local and provincial governments are keen to scale out the model to several maize production regions of Nepal.

In a joint assessment with the Government of Nepal and private sector partners, CIMMYT scientists identified a number of key areas for further development. These include supporting farmers to access high yielding, short duration and stress tolerant maize varieties, as well as best management practices for improving maize production. Other priorities include developing models for contractual arrangements between farmers groups and feed mills, encouraging public and private sector investment in village-level warehouses with drying facilities. Finally, CIMMYT and partners are eager to introduce incentives such as subsidies on grain produced and sold by farmers through cooperatives, develop national maize quality standards and update the 1976 Feed Act.

Going forward, CIMMYT’s research on public private partnership for commercial maize production will focus on drivers of uptake of technology and institutional innovations, the role of aggregation models and contractual arrangements in maize market system coordination and impact assessment on farmers benefits.

Sarah Wairimu Kariuki

Written by Sarah McLaughlin on . Posted in Uncategorized.

Sarah Kariuki is a markets and value chains specialist at CIMMYT in Kenya. Her research is mainly on cereal seed systems, specifically the demand for newer and improved varieties. Her other lines of work include research on how food markets can be made more efficient and assessment of consumer demand for higher-quality and safer foods. She holds a PhD in Development Economics from Wageningen University in the Netherlands.

Kh. Abul Khayer

Written by Sarah McLaughlin on . Posted in Uncategorized.

Kh. Abul Khayer is a machinery development officer with CIMMYT’s Sustainable Agrifood Systems (SAS) program in Bangladesh. He conducts demonstrations, adaptive trials and field days, and coordinates participatory trails on major cereals, vegetables, oilseeds and grain legumes. He collects and reports on data from farmer participatory trials, and assists on monitoring and evaluation of project activities.

For the Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia (CSISA), Khayer conducts training needs assessments and imparts formal and informal training to partners, farmers and service providers in cooperation with CSISA team members. He analyzes and creates the project scope and milestones.

Khayer interacts with and organizes meetings with various stakeholders and partners to discuss, streamline and aid the implementation of field activities. He facilitates partnerships with a wide range of clientele from public and private sector organizations, including farmers’ groups.