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Groundwater depletion in India could reduce winter cropped acreage significantly in years ahead

Water pumped from a deep irrigation well, called a tube well, at a wheat farm in west India's Gujarat state. (Photo: Meha Jain)
Water pumped from a deep irrigation well, called a tube well, at a wheat farm in west India’s Gujarat state. (Photo: Meha Jain)

India is the world’s second-largest producer of wheat and rice and is home to more than 600 million farmers. The country has achieved impressive food-production gains since the 1960s, due in part to an increased reliance on irrigation wells, which allowed Indian farmers to expand production into the mostly dry winter and summer seasons.

But those gains have come at a cost: The country that produces 10% of the world’s crops is now the world’s largest consumer of groundwater, and aquifers are rapidly becoming depleted across much of India. Indian government officials have suggested that switching from groundwater-depleting wells to irrigation canals, which divert surface water from lakes and rivers, is one way to overcome projected shortfalls.

In a study published in the journal Science Advances, scientists conclude that a switch to canal irrigation will not fully compensate for the expected loss of groundwater in Indian agriculture.

The authors estimate that if Indian farmers lose all access to groundwater in overexploited regions, and if that irrigation water is not replaced with water from other sources, then winter cropped acreage could be reduced by up to 20% nationwide. However, that scenario seems highly unlikely and was included in the study only as an upper-bound estimate.

It seems more likely that any future groundwater shortfalls would be at least partially offset by increases in canal irrigation. But even if all Indian regions currently using depleted groundwater switch to canal irrigation, winter cropped acreage could still decline by 7% nationwide and by 24% in the most severely affected locations, according to the researchers.

Water alternatives needed

“Our results highlight the critical importance of groundwater for Indian agriculture and rural livelihoods, and we were able to show that simply providing canal irrigation as a substitute irrigation source will likely not be enough to maintain current production levels in the face of groundwater depletion,” said study lead author Meha Jain, an assistant professor at the University of Michigan’s School for Environment and Sustainability.

“We need coordinated efforts to solve this water availability and food security issue, which should be supported by science-led policy decisions on what strategies and technology solutions to scale out to improve irrigation efficiency,” said co-author Balwinder Singh, a Cropping Systems Simulation Modeler at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT).

The study analyzed high-resolution satellite imagery and village-level census data and focused on winter cropped acreage. While nearly all Indian farmers plant crops during the monsoon to take advantage of seasonal rains, winter agriculture is mainly reliant on groundwater irrigation and now accounts for 44% of the country’s annual cropped acreage for food grains.

“These findings suggest that other adaptation strategies, in addition to canal expansion, are needed to cope with ongoing groundwater losses,” Jain said.

The possibilities include switching from winter rice to less water-intensive cereals, increased adoption of sprinklers and drip irrigation to conserve water in the fields, and policies to increase the efficiency of irrigation canals.

While groundwater depletion is becoming a global threat to food security, and the extent of current and projected groundwater depletion are well documented, the potential impacts on food production remain poorly quantified. The study is the first to use high-resolution empirical data, including census data about the irrigation methods used in more than 500,000 Indian villages, to estimate the crop production losses that may occur when overexploited groundwater is lost.

“Understanding the complex relationship between food security and water availability is crucial as we prepare for future rainfall variability due to global climate change,” said co-author Gillian Galford of the University of Vermont.

The proliferation of deep (>30 meters) irrigation wells called tube wells since the 1960s has enabled Indian farmers to increase the number of seasons when crops are planted in a given year. This increase in “cropping intensity” is credited for much of the country’s food-production gains.

Maps showing state-by-state Indian winter cropped area loss estimates due to groundwater depletion in coming decades, with and without replacement by canals. Darker shades of pink and red indicate greater projected losses. The map on the left (A) shows projected winter cropped acreage losses if all critically depleted groundwater is lost, with no replacement. The map on the right (B) shows projected winter cropped acreage losses if groundwater irrigation is replaced with canals, using national-level regression coefficients. (Graph: Jain et al. in Science Advances 2021)
Maps showing state-by-state Indian winter cropped area loss estimates due to groundwater depletion in coming decades, with and without replacement by canals. Darker shades of pink and red indicate greater projected losses. The map on the left (A) shows projected winter cropped acreage losses if all critically depleted groundwater is lost, with no replacement. The map on the right (B) shows projected winter cropped acreage losses if groundwater irrigation is replaced with canals, using national-level regression coefficients. (Graph: Jain et al. in Science Advances 2021)

Big data for food security

The researchers used satellite data to measure Indian winter cropped area, a key determinant of cropping intensity. They then linked the satellite data to census information about the three main types of irrigation infrastructure in India: shallow “dug wells,” deeper tube wells and canals that divert surface water.

Linking the two datasets allowed them to determine the relative efficacy of each irrigation method. That, in turn, enabled them to estimate potential future acreage losses and the ability of canal expansion to fill the gap.

The study’s worst-case scenario found that winter cropped area could decrease by up to 20% nationwide and by 68% in the most severely affected regions, if farmers lose all access to groundwater and if that irrigation water is not replaced from another source. The expected losses would largely occur in northwest and central India, according to the study.

The researchers also found that increased distance from existing irrigation canals is strongly associated with decreased acreage planted with winter crops. In the future, a greater reliance on canals could increase inequities related to irrigation access, according to the authors.

“This suggests that while canals may be a viable form of irrigation for those who live near canals, they may lead to more unequal access to irrigation across villages compared to wells, with negative impacts for those who live farther from canals,” the authors wrote.

In addition, the lakes and rivers that feed irrigation canals rise and fall in response to rainfall variability, unlike deep groundwater wells. So, a greater reliance on canal irrigation in the future would result in increased sensitivity to year-to-year precipitation fluctuations, as well as any long-term trends due to human-caused climate change.

The authors of the Science Advances study, in addition to Jain and Galford, are Ram Fishman of Tel Aviv University; Pinki Mondal of the University of Delaware; Nishan Bhattarai of the U-M School for Environment and Sustainability; Shahid Naeem, Upmanu Lall and Ruth DeFries of Columbia University; and Balwinder Singh of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT).

The work was funded by a NASA New Investigator Award to Jain and two NASA Land Cover and Land Use Change grants, one awarded to R.S. DeFries and one to Jain.

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RELATED RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS:

Groundwater depletion will reduce cropping intensity in India

INTERVIEW OPPORTUNITIES:

Balwinder Singh – Cropping Systems Simulation Modeler, CIMMYT

Meha Jain – Assistant Professor, University of Michigan

FOR MORE INFORMATION, OR TO ARRANGE INTERVIEWS, CONTACT THE MEDIA TEAM:

Rodrigo Ordóñez – Communications Manager, CIMMYT. r.ordonez@cgiar.org

Jim Erickson – Lead Public Relations Representative, University of Michigan. ericksn@umich.edu

Are solar powered irrigation systems scalable?

A solar powered irrigation pump in use, India. (Photo: Ayush Manik/CCAFS)
A solar powered irrigation pump in use, India. (Photo: Ayush Manik/CCAFS)

Climate change is a major challenge for India, which faces large-scale climate variability and is exposed to high risk. The country’s current development model reiterates the focus on sustainable growth and aims to exploit the benefits of addressing climate change alongside promoting economic growth.

The government has been heavily emphasizing the importance of solar power in India, and the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) recently launched an ambitious initiative to further this cause. The Pradhan Mantri-Kisan Urja Suraksha evam Utthaan Mahabhiyan (PM-KUSUM) scheme aims to support the installation of off-grid solar pumps in rural areas, and reduce dependence on the grid in grid-connected areas.

However, there has been a knowledge gap about the potential use of solar energy interventions in the context of climate change and their scalability. In an effort to bridge this gap, scientists from the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) have comprehensively synthesized existing pilot initiatives on the deployment of solar powered irrigation systems (SPIS) across different agro-climatic zones in India and tried to assess their scalability. This in turn has led to the identification of efficient and effective models for sustainable development in accordance with the region’s socioeconomic and geopolitical situation.

Solar powered irrigation systems in India

A compendium has been developed as part of the research carried out by CCAFS, in collaboration with the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), the Borlaug Institute for South Asia (BISA), Deutsche Gesellschaft fĂŒr Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH (GIZ) and the International Water Management Institute (IWMI).

The main objectives for bringing forth this compendium are: to qualitatively document various deployment models of SPIS and to understand the factors impacting the scalability of SPIS in India. The authors collected detailed information about the process of installing SPIS, their use and maintenance, and documented the different approaches in the form of case studies developed through primary and secondary research. They aimed to capture the key technical, social, institutional and financial attributes of the deployment approaches to enable comparative analysis and synthesis.

In total, 16 case studies from across India were documented — 1 case for centralized SPIS, 2 distributed SPIS and 13 examples for decentralized systems.  Though each of these was designed with unique objectives, detailed analysis reveals that all the cases revolve around the improvement of the three factors: accessibility, affordability and sustainability — the trinity against which all cases have been described. Grid-connected areas such as Gujarat and Maharashtra offer an immense scope of selling surplus energy being produced by SPIS, to energy-deficient electricity suppliers while areas such as Bihar and Jharkhand offer the potential for scaling the decentralized model of SPIS.

Two smallholders use a solar powered irrigation system to farm fish in Bihar, India. (Photo: Ayush Manik/CCAFS)
Two smallholders use a solar powered irrigation system to farm fish in Bihar, India. (Photo: Ayush Manik/CCAFS)

Assessing scalability

For inclusive and sustainable growth, it is important to consider the farm-level potential of solar energy use with multiple usages of energy. The compendium documents examples of the potential of solar irrigation systems in India for adaptation and mitigation benefits. It also assesses on the scalability of different deployment approaches such as solar pump fitted boats in Samastipur, Bihar, or the decentralized solar powered irrigation systems in Gujrat and West Bengal. Through the compendium, the authors study the five key stages of the scaling-up process to assess whether these initiatives are scalable and could reduce or replace fossil fuel dependence in agriculture.

While some of the documented cases are designed exclusively to address a very specific problem in a particular context, others are primarily designed as a proof-of-concept for wider applicability and policy implications — with or without suitable modifications at the time of scaling. In this compendium, both types of cases are included and assessed to understand their relevance and the potential contribution they can make in advancing the goal of solarizing irrigation and agriculture in a sustainable and effective way.

The authors conclude that all the cases have different technical, financial, and institutional aspects which complement each other, have been designed based on community needs and are in line with the larger objective of the intervention integrating three factors — accessibility, affordability and sustainability — to ensure secured availability of resources and to facilitate scalability.

Given that India is a diverse country with varied socioeconomic and geopolitical conditions, it is important to have set guidelines that lay out a plan for scaling while allowing agencies to adapt the SPIS model based on local context and realities in the field.

This article was originally published on the CCAFS website.

Farmers diversify crops in their fields and food on their plates

Farmers in the Bale area, in Ethiopia’s Oromia region, mainly produce wheat and barley. Temam Mama was no different — but some six years ago, the introduction of the two-wheel tractor offered him additional opportunities. This was part of an initiative of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and the Africa RISING project.

Selected as one of the two farmers in the region to test the technology, Temam took a five-day training course to understand the technology and the basics behind operating calibrating and maintaining the equipment.

The two-wheel tractor is multipurpose. By attaching various implements to a single engine, farmers can use it for ploughing, planting, water pumping, transportation, harvesting and threshing. For Temam, who had always relied on a rainfed agricultural system, the technology has high importance — he will be able to use the nearby river as a source of water for irrigation purposes.

To start off, Temam allocated 0.25 hectare from his four hectares of land for irrigation and planted potatoes for the first time. He was delighted with his harvest and the income he collected afterwards.

“From the first harvest, I was able to collect 112 quintals of potato and made roughly $1,529 in total,” said Temam.

Temam Mama checks his crops. (Photo: Simret Yasabu/CIMMYT)
Temam Mama checks his crops. (Photo: Simret Yasabu/CIMMYT)

Eternal returns

His productive journey had just started. This income allowed Temam to keep growing his business. He bought a horse and cart for $550 and taking the advice from the project team, he constructed a Diffused Light Storage (DLS) system to store his potatoes for longer.

To diversify his income, Temam occasionally provides transport services to other farmers. Over time, Temam’s financial capital has continued to grow, bringing new ideas and a desire to change. He went from a wooden fence to a corrugated iron sheet, to an additional three rooms by the side of his house for rentals.

He is fortunate for having access to the river and the road, he explains. He also sees new opportunities emerging as the demand for potato in the market continues to grow. The price for one quintal of potato sometimes reaches $76 and matching the demand is unthinkable without the two-wheel tractor, he says.

In addition to the two-wheel tractor, he has also bought a water pump to enable him to increase the area that he can grow irrigated potato, garlic and pepper on. His target is to have two hectares irrigated soon.

Temam Mama drives a two-wheel tractor to the irrigation area. (Photo: Simret Yasabu/CIMMYT)
Temam Mama drives a two-wheel tractor to the irrigation area. (Photo: Simret Yasabu/CIMMYT)

The future is bright

With his wife and four children, Temam is now living a well-deserved, healthy and exemplary life. Tomato, chilli and onion now grow on his farm ensuring a healthy diet, as well as diversified and nutritious food for the family. His economic status is also enabling him to support his community in times of need. “As part of my social responsibility, I have contributed around $152 for road and school constructions in our area,” noted Temam.

Under the Africa RISING project, Temam has proven that irrigation of high-value crops using two-wheel tractor pumping really works, and that it increases production and the profitability of farming. He has now stepped into a new journey with a bright future ahead of him.

“I plan to sell my indigenous cows to buy improved breeds and, in two to three years’ time, if I am called for refreshment training in Addis Ababa, I will arrive driving my own car,” concluded Temam.

Cover photo: Temam Mama’s family eats healthy and nutritious food produced through irrigation. (Photo: Simret Yasabu/CIMMYT)

New publications: A study of water markets in Bangladesh

Domestic rice and wheat production in Bangladesh has more than doubled in the last 30 years, despite declining per capita arable land. The fact that the country is now almost self-sufficient in staple food production is due in large part to successful and rapid adoption of modern, high-yielding crop varieties. This has been widely documented, but less attention has been paid to the contribution of small-scale irrigation systems, whose proliferation has enabled double rice cropping and a competitive market system in which farmers can purchase irrigation services from private pump owners at affordable rates.

However, excess groundwater abstraction in areas of high shallow tube-well density and increased fuel costs for pumping have called into question the sustainability of Bangladesh’s groundwater irrigation economy. Cost-saving agronomic methods are called for, alongside aligned policies, markets, and farmers’ incentives.

A recent study by researchers at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) examines the different institutions and water-pricing methods for irrigation services that have emerged in Bangladesh, each of which varies in their incentive structure for water conservation, and the level of economic risk involved for farmers and service providers.

Using primary data collected from 139 irrigation service providers and 556 client-farmers, the authors assessed the structure of irrigation service types as well as the associated market and institutional dimensions. They found that competition between pump owners, social capital, and social relationship between of pump owners and client farmers, significantly influence the structure of irrigation services and irrigation water pricing methods. Greater competition between pump owners, for instance, increases the likelihood of pay-per-hour services while reducing that of crop sharing arrangements.

Based on these and other findings, authors made policy recommendations for enhancing irrigation services and sustainability in Bangladesh. As Bangladesh is already highly successful in terms of the conventional irrigation system, the authors urge taking it to the next level for sustainability and efficiency.

Currently Bangladesh’s irrigation system is based on centrifugal pumps and diesel engines. The authors suggest scaling out the energy efficient axial flow pump, and the alternate wetting and drying system for water conservation and irrigation efficiency. They also recommend further investment in rural electrification to facilitate the use of electric motors, which can reduce air pollution by curbing dependency on diesel engines.

Read the full article:
“
Understanding clients, providers and the institutional dimensions of irrigation services in developing countries: A study of water markets in Bangladesh” in Agricultural Water Management, Volume 222, 1 August 2019, pages 242-253.

This study was made possible through the support provided by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to the Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia (CSISA). Additional support was provided by the CGIAR Research Programs on Maize (MAIZE) and Wheat (WHEAT).

Local irrigation service providers in southern Bangladesh demonstrate the use of a two-wheeled tractor to power an axial flow pump to provide fuel-efficient surface water irrigation. (Photo: Tim Krupnik/CIMMYT)
Local irrigation service providers in southern Bangladesh demonstrate the use of a two-wheeled tractor to power an axial flow pump to provide fuel-efficient surface water irrigation. (Photo: Tim Krupnik/CIMMYT)

Read more recent publications by CIMMYT researchers:

  1. A spatial framework for ex-ante impact assessment of agricultural technologies. 2019. Andrade, J.F., Rattalino Edreira, J.I., Farrow, A., Loon, M.P. van., Craufurd, P., Rurinda, J., Shamie Zingore, Chamberlin, J., Claessens, L., Adewopo, J., Ittersum, M.K. van, Cassman, K.G., Grassini, P. In: Global Food Security v. 20, p. 72-81.
  2. Assessing genetic diversity to breed competitive biofortified wheat with enhanced grain ZN and FE concentrations. 2019. Velu, G., Crespo-Herrera, L.A., Guzman, C., Huerta-Espino, J., Payne, T.S., Singh, R.P. In: Frontiers in Plant Science v. 9, art. 1971.
  3. Genome-wide association mapping and genomic prediction analyses reveal the genetic architecture of grain yield and flowering time under drought and heat stress conditions in maize. 2019. Yibing Yuan, Cairns, J.E., Babu, R., Gowda, M., Makumbi, D., Magorokosho, C., Ao Zhang, Yubo Liu, Nan Wang, Zhuanfang Hao, San Vicente, F.M., Olsen, M., Prasanna, B.M., Yanli Lu, Zhang, X. In: Plant Breeding v. 9, art. 1919.
  4. Diversifying conservation agriculture and conventional tillage cropping systems to improve the wellbeing of smallholder farmers in Malawi. 2019. TerAvest, D., Wandschneider, P.R., Thierfelder, C., Reganold, J.P. In: Agricultural Systems v. 171, p. 23-35.
  5. Biofortified maize can improve quality protein intakes among young children in southern Ethiopia. 2019. Gunaratna, N.S., Moges, D., De Groote, H. Nutrients v. 11, no. 1, art. 192.

From the eye in the sky to the cell phone in the field: technologies for all

Think of all the things you do with your cell phone on any given day. You can start your car, buy a coffee and even measure your heart rate. Cell phones are our alarm clocks and our cameras, our gyms and our banks. Cell phones are not just relevant for urban living but offer an opportunity to transform the lives of smallholders beyond compare. Even the most basic handset can empower farmers by providing them with instant information on weather, crop prices, and farming techniques.

For many farmers in the developing world, cell phones are the most accessible form of technology, but are only one of many technologies changing agriculture. Innovations such as the plow, irrigation and fertilizer have shaped the history of humankind. Today, technologies continue to play an essential role in agricultural production and impact the life of farmers everywhere.

Enter the era of hyper precision

Precision farming has been around for more than 30 years, but cheaper and more robust technologies are ushering in an era of hyper precision. With increasing climate uncertainties and price fluctuations, farmers can’t afford risk, and precision agriculture enables them to increase production and profits by linking biophysical determinants and variations in crop yield. A variety of farm equipment is being equipped with GPS and sensors that can measure water needs in the crop and nutrient levels in the soil, and dispense exactly the right amount of fertilizer and water as needed.

Precision agriculture may originate from large-scale, well-resourced farms, but its concept is highly transferable and it is scale independent. The pocket-sized active-crop canopy sensors, is already a game changing technology with the potential to bring precision agriculture within the reach of smallholders. Using such sensors to read crop health provides farmers with basic information that can be used for recommended nitrogen application. This has a dual purpose, both for smallholder farmers in areas where soils typically lack nitrogen, and those that over-fertilize while simultaneously reducing profitability and causing environmental pollution.

In Bangladesh, CIMMYT researchers are developing an irrigation scheduling app that predicts a week ahead of time whether a particular field requires irrigation. Based on satellite-derived estimates of crop water use, a soil water model and weather forecasts, the underlying algorithm for the app is also being tested in the north of Mexico.

The eyes in the sky

The human eye is a remote sensor, but on a farm there are many things that cannot be seen with the unaided eye, including surface temperatures and crop changes caused by extreme weather. At CIMMYT, remote sensing devices are allowing researchers to obtain information about a large area without physical contact that would otherwise be difficult to monitor. Indeed, last month I joined researchers at CIMMYT Headquarters in El Batan, Mexico, to learn more about the use of an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) with built-in GPS and thermal and multispectral sensors that captures aerial photography to an image resolution of 3 cm. This device is being used to capture the canopy temperature and nitrogen status of crops.

Remote sensing alone is not going to teach a farmer how to properly sow a field, take the best care of his crops or optimize returns. Remote sensing explores spatial and temporal dimensions to provide a diagnosis but the next crucial step is to turn this into recommendations on nutrient management, irrigation and crop protection. The next question is how to bring these recommendations to small farms. In a low-tech setting, this depends on knowledge transfer to provide recommendations to farmers.

 

Learning about the use of UAV with CIMMYT scientists including (L-R) Francelino Rodrigues, Zia Ahmed, Martin Kropff, Lorena Gonzalez, Alex Park, Kai Sonder, Bruno Gérard and Juan Arista. (Photo: CIMMYT)
Learning about the use of UAV with CIMMYT scientists including (L-R) Francelino Rodrigues, Zia Ahmed, Martin Kropff, Lorena Gonzalez, Alex Park, Kai Sonder, Bruno Gérard and Juan Arista. (Photo: CIMMYT)