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Targeted fertilizer recommendations improve maize productivity in Ethiopia

A study on the impact of providing site-specific fertilizer recommendations on fertilizer usage, productivity and welfare outcomes in Ethiopia shows that targeted fertilizer recommendations encourage fertilizer investments and lead to improved maize productivity outcomes.

Enumerators manually shelling maize cobs to test grain moisture. (Photo: Hailemariam Ayalew/CIMMYT)
Enumerators manually shelling maize cobs to test grain moisture. (Photo: Hailemariam Ayalew/CIMMYT)

Researchers from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and the Department of Economics and Trinity Impact Evaluation unit (TIME), Trinity College Dublin, anticipate that the findings will provide valuable guidance to the design and delivery of improved extension services in developing countries.

Soil degradation and nutrient depletion have been serious threats to agricultural productivity and food security in Ethiopia. Over the years, soil fertility has also declined due to the increase in population size and decline in plot size. Studies have identified nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) as being the nutrients most lacking and have called for action to improve the nutrient status of soils.

In response to this, in 2007, the Ministry of Agriculture and Natural Resources and agricultural research centers together developed regional fertilizer recommendations. These recommendations, about fertilizer types and application rates for different crops, were disseminated to farmers through agricultural extension workers and development agents.

However, adoption of fertilizer remains low — and average application rates are generally lower than recommended. One reason for these low adoption rates is that the information provided is too broad and not tailored to the specific requirements of smallholder farmers.

A study conducted on 738 farm households randomly selected from the main maize growing areas of Ethiopia — Bako, Jimma and the East Shewa and West Gojjam zones — shows that well-targeted fertilizer recommendations can increase fertilizer usage in smallholder maize production.

Maize is one of Ethiopia’s most important crops in terms of production, productivity, and area coverage. It is a primary staple food in the major maize growing areas as well as a source of feed for animals and a raw material for industries.

The study examined the impact of providing site-specific fertilizer recommendations to farmers on fertilizer usage/adoption, farm productivity/production per hectare and consumer expenditure/welfare outcomes using a two-level cluster randomized control trial.

Tailored recommendations

CIMMYT researcher Hailemariam Ayalew examines maize crops during the study. (Photo: Hailemariam Ayalew/CIMMYT)
CIMMYT researcher Hailemariam Ayalew examines maize crops during the study. (Photo: Hailemariam Ayalew/CIMMYT)

The Nutrient Expert decision-support tool, developed by the International Plant Nutrition Institute (IPNI) in partnership with the CGIAR Research Center on Maize (MAIZE), was used to give site-specific recommendations to each farmer. With this tool, researchers offered tailored recommendations, using information on fertilizer blends available in Ethiopia, current farmers’ practices, relevant inputs and field history, and local conditions. The experiment also considered whether coupling the site-specific recommendation with crop insurance — to protect farmers’ fertilizer investment in the event of crop failure — enhanced adoption rates.

Results show that well-targeted fertilizer recommendations improve fertilizer usage and productivity of maize production. The intervention led to an increase of 5 quintals, or 0.5 tons, in average maize yields for plots in the treatment group. While the study did not find any evidence that these productivity gains led to household welfare improvements, it is likely that such improvements may take longer to realize.

The study found no differential effect of the site-specific recommendation when coupled with agricultural insurance, suggesting that the risk of crop failure is not a binding constraint to fertilizer adoption in the study setting. The findings of this research should help guide the design and delivery of improved extension services in relation to fertilizer usage and adoption in developing countries.

Cover photo: Workers harvesting green maize at Ambo Research Center, Ethiopia, 2015. (Photo: CIMMYT/ Peter Lowe)

A less risky business

A maize farmer in southern Ethiopia. (Photo: <a href="https://flic.kr/p/2hp5uoS">S. Samuel/CCAFS</a>)
A maize farmer in southern Ethiopia. (Photo: S. Samuel/CCAFS)

Because of unpredictable climate conditions, agricultural production in Ethiopia faces uncertainties during both the growing and harvesting seasons. The risk and uncertainty are bigger for smallholder farmers, as they can’t protect themselves from climate-related asset losses. Access to insurance schemes, climate information and other tools could help to minimize climate risks for smallholder farmers.

A new collaborative project launched in Ethiopia aims to reduce agricultural investment risk. The Capacitating African Stakeholders with Climate Advisories and Insurance Development (CASCAID-II) project builds on learnings from the CASCAID-I project in West Africa. It will target Ethiopia, Ghana and Senegal, focusing not only on smallholder farmers but on the food value chain as a whole. In a context of increasing integration of farmers into urban markets, the project will improve agricultural productivity, food security and profitability of agricultural enterprises.

The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) will partner with the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) and the University of Florida, with the support of the CGIAR research program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).

Kindie Tesfaye, CIMMYT, presents an overview of climate services in Ethiopia. (Photo: Simret Yasabu /CIMMYT)
Kindie Tesfaye, CIMMYT, presents an overview of climate services in Ethiopia. (Photo: Simret Yasabu /CIMMYT)

Physical and digital tools across the value chain

In October 2019, thirty partners gathered for the CASCAID-II project launch and meeting in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. They agreed on the project goals, a set of priority research questions and a schedule of activities for the next two years.

Partners also reviewed the tools that could be used to deliver climate advisories and agricultural insurance products, ensuring that all the actors in the value chain are engaged from the start. Team members aim to embed services in existing physical and digital (“phygital”) data infrastructures and to collect user feedback, so performance can be improved. Users will be segmented according to advanced socioeconomic and agro-ecological factors, so they can be targeted more efficiently with appropriate services and climate-smart agriculture options. The project will draw on real-time and multi-scale yield forecasting for better preparedness and decision-making.

Project partners agreed to start with the CCAFS Regional Agricultural Forecasting Tool (CRAFT) for sub-national yield forecasting in Ethiopia and to develop climate advisories and insurance services in line with the needs of the Ministry of Agriculture.

Participants of the launch of the digital agro-climate advisory platform gather for a group photo. (Photo: Semu Yemane/EIAR)
Participants of the launch of the digital agro-climate advisory platform gather for a group photo. (Photo: Semu Yemane/EIAR)

Precise data from scientists to farmers

In a related development, Ethiopia recently launched a digital agro-climate advisory platform, which offers great potential to improve farmers’ management of climate-induced risks, facilitate technology adoption and improve livelihoods.

Speaking at the platform’s launch ceremony, Eyasu Abraha, advisor to the Minister of Agriculture, thanked development partners for supporting the establishment of the platform in the timely move towards digitalization and use of precise data.

The platform incorporates location-specific climate information, as well as soil- and crop-specific best-bet agronomic management recommendations for farmers, development agents and extension officers. It automates crop-climate modeling and uses technologies such as text messaging, interactive voice response (IVRS) and smartphone apps for dissemination.

Climate insurance for farmers: a shield that boosts innovation

Index insurance is one of the top 10 innovations for climate-proof farming. Photo: P. Lowe/ CIMMYT
Index insurance is one of the top 10 innovations for climate-proof farming. Photo: P. Lowe/ CIMMYT

What stands between a smallholder farmer and a bag of climate-adapted seeds? In many cases, it’s the hesitation to take a risk. Farmers may want to use improved varieties, invest in new tools, or diversify what they grow, but they need reassurance that their investments and hard work will not be squandered.

Climate change already threatens crops and livestock; one unfortunately-timed dry spell or flash flood can mean losing everything. Today, innovative insurance products are tipping the balance in farmers’ favor. That’s why insurance is featured as one of 10 innovations for climate action in agriculture, in a new report released ahead of next week’s UN Climate Talks. These innovations are drawn from decades of agricultural research for development by CGIAR and its partners and showcase an array of integrated solutions that can transform the food system.

Index insurance is making a difference to farmers at the frontlines of climate change. It is an essential building block for adapting our global food system and helping farmers thrive in a changing climate. Taken together with other innovations like stress-tolerant crop varieties, climate-informed advisories for farmers, and creative business and financial models, index insurance shows tremendous promise.

The concept is simple. To start with, farmers who are covered can recoup their losses if (for example) rainfall or average yield falls above or below a pre-specified threshold or ‘index’. This is a leap forward compared to the costly and slow process of manually verifying the damage and loss in each farmer’s field. In India, scientists from the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) and the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), have worked out the water level thresholds that could spell disaster for rice farmers if exceeded. Combining 35 years of observed rainfall and other data, with high-resolution satellite images of actual flooding, scientists and insurers can accurately gauge the extent of flooding and crop loss to quickly determine who gets payouts.

The core feature of index insurance is to offer a lifeline to farmers, so they can shield themselves from the very worst effects of climate change. But that’s not all. Together with my team, we’re investigating how insurance can help farmers adopt new and improved varieties. Scientists are very good at developing technologies but farmers are not always willing to make the leap. This is one of the most important challenges that we grapple with. What we’ve found has amazed us: buying insurance can help farmers overcome uncertainty and give them the confidence to invest in new innovations and approaches. This is critical for climate change adaptation. We’re also finding that creditors are more willing to lend to insured farmers and that insurance can stimulate entrepreneurship and innovation. Ultimately, insurance can help break poverty traps, by encouraging a transformation in farming.

Insurers at the cutting edge are making it easy for farmers to get coverage. In Kenya, insurance is being bundled into bags of maize seeds, in a scheme led by ACRE Africa. Farmers pay a small premium when buying the seeds and each bag contains a scratch card with a code, which farmers text to ACRE at the time of planting. This initiates coverage against drought for the next 21 days; participating farms are monitored using satellite imagery. If there are enough days without rain, a farmer gets paid instantly via their mobile phone.

ACRE makes it easy for Kenyan farmers to get insurance. Source
ACRE makes it easy for Kenyan farmers to get insurance. Source

Farmers everywhere are businesspeople who seek to increase yields and profits while minimizing risk and losses. As such, insurance has widespread appeal. We’ve seen successful initiatives grow rapidly in India, China, Zambia, Kenya and Mexico, which points to significant potential in other countries and contexts. The farmers most likely to benefit from index insurance are emergent and commercial farmers, as they are more likely than subsistence smallholder farmers to purchase insurance on a continual basis.

It’s time for more investment in index insurance and other innovations that can help farmers adapt to climate change. Countries have overwhelmingly prioritized climate actions in the agriculture sector, and sustained support is now needed to help them meet the goals set out in the Paris Climate Agreement.

Jon Hellin leads the project on weather index-based agricultural insurance as part of the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). This work is done in collaboration with the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University, and the CGIAR Research Programs on MAIZE and WHEAT.

Find out more 

Report: 10 innovations for climate action in agriculture

Video: Jon Hellin on crop-index insurance for smallholder farmers

Info note: Prospects for scaling up the contribution of index insurance to smallholder adaptation to climate risk

Report: Scaling up index insurance for smallholder farmers: Recent evidence and insights.

Website: Weather-related agricultural insurance products and programs – CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)