Navigating the Challenges of Modern Agriculture: Kevin Pixley’s, Dryland Crops and Wheat Program Director, expertise highlights the transformative impact of genetic engineering in crop improvement, focusing on developing resilient varieties to meet global food demands amidst climate change.
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Global concerns are escalating as population growth, climate challenges and regional conflicts contribute to a food crisis. CIMMYT, in collaboration with 13 countries, is registering 160 drought-tolerant maize varieties to address changing climatic conditions, underscoring the need for unified efforts in global agricultural organizations.
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As hotter temperatures and drought become the norm in places used to growing wheat, yields will be reduced, climate change will have some effect on most of the world’s wheat. CIMMYT is working to strengthen seed systems as demand for staple crops like wheat is only expected to increase as the climate crisis makes the world’s food system more vulnerable.
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The Excellence in Agronomy for Sustainable Intensification and Climate Change Adaptation Initiative launched in east and southern Africa on July 28-29 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, at a workshop with panel discussions and ideation sessions to determine key actions for the project.
The Initiative aims to deliver agronomic gain at scale for millions of smallholder farming households in prioritized farming systems, with emphasis on supporting women and young farmers, to demonstrate measurable impact on food and nutrition security, income, water use, soil health and climate resilience.
Co-creation of agricultural solutions with farmers is integral to the Initiative through the engagement of modern tools, digital technologies, and behavioral science.
At the workshop, participants created a shared understanding of the Initiative’s goals for the region, laid groundwork for in-country planning and implementation, and increased visibility of the Initiative. Attendees agreed on the need to reevaluate beyond the boundaries of traditional agronomic practices and microeconomic challenges, considering policies at national and regional levels.
Combining expertise from across CGIAR research centers, private sector actors and government agriculture departments, the Initiative takes a data-based approach to offer demand-driven solutions. This was of particular appeal to Eyasu Elias, deputy minister at Ethiopia’s Ministry of Agriculture, who described the approach as “truly commendable” in comparison to conventional supply-driven approaches.
Elias, who was represented by a delegate at the event, highlighted Ethiopia’s current three priorities: managing acid soils; managing Vertisols so they utilize their natural productive potentials; and adopting practices that mitigate the formation of salt-affected soils.
“Attaining food security will be a tremendous challenge under current conditions,” explained Elias’ representative. “More than ever, we need innovative agronomic solutions that enhance nutrient use efficiencies; we need solutions that can be crafted from locally available alternatives. Collaborations that allow co-creation, co-design and participatory technology generation along these lines are appreciated from our end.”
Uganda is one of the fastest economically growing nations in sub-Saharan Africa and is in the midst of socio-economic transition. Over the past two decades the country’s GDP has expanded, on average, by more than 6% each year, with per capita GDP reaching $710 in 2019. Researchers project that this will continue to rise at a rate of 5.6% each year for the next decade, reaching approximately $984 by the year 2031.
This growth is mirrored by a rising population and rapid urbanization within the country. In 2019, 24.4% of the Uganda’s 44.3 million citizens were living in urban areas. By 2030, population is projected to rise to 58-61 million, 31% of whom are expected to live in towns and cities.
“Changes in population, urbanization and GDP growth rate all affect the dietary intake pattern of a country,” says Khondoker Mottaleb, an economist at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT). “Economic and demographic changes will have significant impacts on the agricultural sector, which will be challenged to produce and supply more and better food at affordable prices.”
This could leave Uganda in a precarious position.
In a new study, Mottaleb and a team of collaborators project Uganda’s future food demand, and the potential implications for achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal of zero hunger by 2030.
The authors assess the future demand for major food items, using information from 8,424 households collected through three rounds of Uganda’s Living Standards Measurement Study — Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA). They focus on nationwide demand for traditional foods like matooke (cooking banana), cassava and sweet potato, as well as cereals like maize, wheat and rice — consumption of which has been rising alongside incomes and urbanization.
The study findings confirm that with increases in income and demographic changes, the demand for these food items will increase drastically. In 2018, aggregate consumption was 3.3 million metric tons (MMT) of matooke, 4.7 MMT of cassava and sweet potato, 1.97 MMT of maize and coarse grains, and 0.94 MMT of wheat and rice. Using the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) estimation approach, the authors show that in 2030 demand could be as high as 8.1 MMT for matooke, 10.5 MMT for cassava and sweet potato, 9.5 MT for maize and coarse grains, and 4 MMT for wheat and rice.
Worryingly, Mottaleb and his team explain that while demand for all the items examined in the study increases, the overall yield growth rate for major crops is stagnating as a result of land degradation, climate extremes and rural out-migration. For example, the yield growth rate for matooke has reduced from +0.21% per year from 1962-1989 to -0.90% from 1990-2019.
As such, the authors call for increased investment in Uganda’s agricultural sector to enhance domestic production capacity, meet the growing demand for food outlined in the study, improve the livelihoods of resource-poor farmers, and eliminate hunger.
Read the full article, Projecting food demand in 2030: Can Uganda attain the zero hunger goal?