In analysis of why the Ukraine crisis is heavily impacting Africa, the report’s introduction from Bill Gates delves into reasons behind reliance on crop imports. Most farmers in Africa are smallholders with small plots of land and have limited capacity to use fertilizers or have access to irrigation. This means that any shock to the food system, such as the disruption to the global supply chain caused by the Ukraine conflict, hugely impacts the yield levels, threatening food and nutritional security.
Conflict is not the only risk to food systems in Africa. Climate change is the most prominent challenge that the continent’s smallholder farmers continue to face.
Developed through support from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, DroughtTego, a CIMMYT-derived hybrid maize with increased resistance to hotter, drier climates, produces an average of 66% more grain per acre in Kenya. Scaled through public-private partnerships, DroughtTego seeds can increase farmer income by providing more than enough to feed a family of six for an entire year, enabling them to invest the additional money in sending their children to school or building new homes.
CIMMYT and CGIAR scientists have also been using predictive modeling to speed up plant breeding and develop new varieties that can perform well even in drought stress-prone environments of Africa. Artificial intelligence helps in processing the genomic information of crops alongside the environmental data, such as soil samples and satellite imagery. The results create a vision of what farms will need to look like in the future, enabling scientists to determine which type of crop varieties can better succeed in specific locations.
Predictive epidemiological modeling can highlight where plant diseases, such as wheat rust, may possibly spread. An early warning system, developed by a partnership between CIMMYT, the University of Cambridge, the UK Met Office, the Ethiopian Agricultural Research Institute (EIAR), the Agricultural Transformation Institute (ATI) and the Ethiopian Ministry of Agriculture, successfully alerted farmers in Ethiopia to an outbreak of the disease so that they could take preventive measures. The resulting outcome was the country’s largest wheat harvest ever recorded, instead of a devastating rust epidemic.
A LinkedIn post from Bill Gates also emphasized CIMMYT’s research, asking which crop accounts for around 30% of calorie intake for people in sub-Saharan Africa — the answer being “maize”.
Inclusion in this report highlights the global impact of CIMMYT’s work on farmers and world food systems, which is only possible through successful partnerships with organizations like the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Cover photo: A farmer in Zaka District, Zimbabwe, experiences a drought that could affect crop yields. (Photo: Johnson Siamachira/CIMMYT)
Ethiopian wheat farmers will soon benefit from the CRAFT tool. (Credit: Bioversity)
The negative impacts of climate shocks have undermined the food security of millions of people in Ethiopia, where predominantly rain-fed agriculture and cereals comprise 82% of the crop area and are particularly susceptible to extreme climate events like drought or flooding. Predictions that can account for potential climate events can facilitate efforts of governmental agencies to proactively engage in climate mitigation efforts.
The five-day training workshop exposed select national experts involved in data collection and analysis of crop performance to the CRAFT tool, which is expected to improve accuracy, efficiency, and speed of forecasts.
The participants of the training were experts from the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), National Meteorology Agency (NMA), and Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission (EDRMC).
CRAFT has been developed in collaboration with CIMMYT, the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), and the University of Florida through the Capacitating African Smallholders with Climate Advisories and Insurance Development (CASCAID-II) program. CRAFT is a flexible and adaptable software platform, relying on a crop engine to run pre-installed crop models and on the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) to utilize seasonal climate predictions to produce crop yield forecasts. The tool has been calibrated, evaluated, and tested under Ethiopian ecological conditions.
In the opening of the training workshop, Esayas Lemma, Director of the Crop Development Directorate at the MoA, emphasized institutions must be equipped with the necessary analytical and decision support tools to enable decision makers to make critical decisions at the right time due to increasing challenges to food security. He added the training organized by CIMMYT through the AICCRA-Ethiopia project was timely and important for enhancing the capacity of the experts drawn from the three institutions and building national capacity in using modern decision support tools.
Kindie Tesfaye, senior scientist at CIMMYT, stated the training was organized to help experts in national institutions in applying decision support tools to equip decision makers with information to help them minimize costs, save lives, and enhance long-term climate risk management and policy options in Ethiopia. “We hope to bring this technology to other countries following this roll-out in Ethiopia,” Tesfaye said.
“The training is an eye-opener for me, and this is the type of tool that we have been looking for,” said Mss. Berktawit, a trainee from EDRMC.
“The CRAFT tool has several applications in the MoA, and we are lucky to have this training. With some additional training, we at the ministry should be able to use it to support our crop monitoring and early warning works,” said Mr. Zewdu, a trainee from the MoA.
A follow up training session will be organized to certify participants as they continue working with CRAFT. “Feedback from these users will be vital to optimize inputs for CRAFT and to develop an intuitive user interface,” Tesfaye said.
A blast-blighted stalk of wheat. (Photo: Chris Knight/Cornell)
Every year, the spores of the wheat blast fungus lie in wait on farms in South America, Bangladesh, and beyond. In most years, the pathogen has only a small impact on the countries’ wheat crops. But the disease spreads quickly, and when the conditions are right there’s a risk of a large outbreak — which can pose a serious threat to the food security and livelihood of farmers in a specific year.
To minimize this risk, an international partnership of researchers and organizations have created the wheat blast Early Warning System (EWS), a digital platform that notifies farmers and officials when weather conditions are ideal for the fungus to spread. The team, which began its work in Bangladesh, is now introducing the technology to Brazil — the country where wheat blast was originally discovered in 1985.
The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA), Brazil’s University of Passo Fundo (UPF) and others developed the tool with support from USAID under the Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia (CSISA) project.
Although first developed with the help of Brazilian scientists for Bangladesh, the EWS has now come full circle and is endorsed and being used by agriculture workers in Brazil. The team hopes that the system will give farmers time to take preventative measures against the disease.
Outbreaks can massively reduce crop yields, if no preventative actions are taken.
“It can be very severe. It can cause a lot of damage,” says Maurício Fernandes, a plant epidemiologist with EMBRAPA.
Striking first
In order to expand into a full outbreak, wheat blast requires specific temperature and humidity conditions. So, Fernandes and his team developed a digital platform that runs weather data through an algorithm to determine the times and places in which outbreaks are likely to occur.
If the system sees a region is going to grow hot and humid enough for the fungus to thrive, it sends an automated message to the agriculture workers in the area. These messages — texts or emails — alert them to take preemptive measures against the disease.
More than 6,000 extension agents in Bangladesh have already signed up for disease early warnings.
In Brazil, Fernandes and his peers are connecting with farmer cooperatives. These groups, which count a majority of Brazilian farmers as members, can send weather data to help inform the EWS, and can spread alerts through their websites or in-house applications.
Wheat blast can attack a plant quickly, shriveling and deforming the grain in less than a week from the first symptoms. Advance warnings are essential to mitigate losses. The alerts sent out will recommend that farmers apply fungicide, which only works when applied before infection.
“If the pathogen has already affected the plant, the fungicides will have no effect,” Fernandes says.
A blast from the past
Because wheat had not previously been exposed to Magnaporthe oryzae, most wheat cultivars at the time had no natural resistance to Magnaporthe oryzae, according to Fernandes. Some newer varieties are moderately resistant to the disease, but the availability of sufficient seed for farmers remains limited.
The pathogen can spread through leftover infected seeds and crop residue. But its spores can also travel vast distances through the air.
If the fungus spreads and infects enough plants, it can wreak havoc over large areas. In the 1990s — shortly after its discovery — wheat blast impacted around three million hectares of wheat in South America. Back in 2016, the disease appeared in Bangladesh and South Asia for the first time, and the resulting outbreak covered around 15,000 hectares of land. CGIAR estimates that the disease has the potential to reduce the region’s wheat production by 85 million tons.
In Brazil, wheat blast outbreaks can have a marked impact on the country’s agricultural output. During a major outbreak in 2009, the disease affected as many as three million hectares of crops in South America. As such, the EWS is an invaluable tool to support food security and farmer livelihoods. Fernandes notes that affected regions can go multiple years between large outbreaks, but the threat remains.
“People forget about the disease, then you have an outbreak again,” he says.
Essential partnerships
The EWS has its roots in Brazil. In 2017 Fernandes and his peers published a piece of research proposing the model. After that, Tim Krupnik, a senior scientist and country representative with CIMMYT in Bangladesh, along with a group of researchers and organizations, launched a pilot project in Bangladesh.
There, agriculture extension officers received an automated email or text message when weather conditions were ideal for wheat blast to thrive and spread. The team used this proof of concept to bring it back to Brazil.
According to Krupnik, the Brazil platform is something of a “homecoming” for this work. He also notes that cooperation between the researchers, organizations and agriculture workers in Brazil and Bangladesh was instrumental in creating the system.
“From this, we’re able to have a partnership that I think will have a significant outcome in Brazil, from a relatively small investment in research supplied in Bangladesh. That shows you the power of partnerships and how solutions can be found to pressing agricultural problems through collaborative science, across continents,” he says.
An early warning system set to deliver wheat disease predictions directly to farmers’ phones is being piloted in Bangladesh and Nepal by interdisciplinary researchers.
Experts in crop disease, meteorology and computer science are crunching data from multiple countries to formulate models that anticipate the spread of the wheat rust and blast diseases in order to warn farmers of likely outbreaks, providing time for pre-emptive measures, said Dave Hodson, a principal scientist with the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) coordinating the pilot project.
Around 50,000 smallholder farmers are expected to receive improved disease warnings and appropriate management advisories through the one-year proof-of-concept project, as part of the UK Aid-funded Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARRCC) program.
Early action is critical to prevent crop diseases becoming endemic. The speed at which wind-dispersed fungal wheat diseases are spreading through Asia poses a constant threat to sustainable wheat production of the 130 million tons produced in the region each year.
“Wheat rust and blast are caused by fungal pathogens, and like many fungi, they spread from plant to plant — and field to field — in tiny particles called spores,” said Hodson. “Disease strain mutations can overcome resistant varieties, leaving farmers few choices but to rely on expensive and environmentally-damaging fungicides to prevent crop loss.”
“The early warning system combines climate data and epidemiology models to predict how spores will spread through the air and identifies environmental conditions where healthy crops are at risk of infection. This allows for more targeted and optimal use of fungicides.”
The system was first developed in Ethiopia. It uses weather information from the Met Office, the UK’s national meteorological service, along with field and mobile phone surveillance data and disease spread modeling from the University of Cambridge, to construct and deploy a near real-time early warning system.
CIMMYT consultant Madan Bhatta conducts field surveys using Open Data Kit (ODK) in the mid-hills of Nepal. (Photo: D. Hodson/CIMMYT)
Initial efforts focused on adapting the wheat stripe and stem rust model from Ethiopia to Bangladesh and Nepal have been successful, with field surveillance data appearing to align with the weather-driven disease early warnings, but further analysis is ongoing, said Hodson.
“In the current wheat season we are in the process of comparing our disease forecasting models with on-the-ground survey results in both countries,” the wheat expert said.
“Next season, after getting validation from national partners, we will pilot getting our predictions to farmers through text-based messaging systems.”
CIMMYT’s strong partnerships with governmental extension systems and farmer associations across South Asia are being utilized to develop efficient pathways to get disease predictions to farmers, said Tim Krupnik, a CIMMYT Senior Scientist based in Bangladesh.
“Partnerships are essential. Working with our colleagues, we can validate and test the deployment of model-derived advisories in real-world extension settings,” Krupnik said. “The forecasting and early warning systems are designed to reduce unnecessary fungicide use, advising it only in the case where outbreaks are expected.”
Local partners are also key for data collection to support and develop future epidemiological modelling, the development of advisory graphics and the dissemination of information, he explained.
The second stage of the project concerns the adaptation of the framework and protocols for wheat blast disease to improve existing wheat blast early warning systems already pioneered in Bangladesh.
Example of weekly stripe rust spore deposition forecast in Nepal. Darker colors represent higher predicted number of spores deposited. The early warning system combines weather information from the Met Office with field and mobile phone surveillance data and disease spread modeling from the University of Cambridge. (Graphic: University of Cambridge and Met Office)
Strong scientific partnership champions diversity to achieve common goals
The meteorological-driven wheat disease warning system is an example of effective international scientific partnership contributing to the UN Sustainable Development Goals, said Sarah Millington, a scientific manager at Atmospheric Dispersion and Air Quality Group with the Met Office.
“Diverse expertise from the Met Office, the University of Cambridge and CIMMYT shows how combined fundamental research in epidemiology and meteorology modelling with field-based disease observation can produce a system that boosts smallholder farmers’ resilience to major agricultural challenges,” she said.
The atmospheric dispersion modeling was originally developed in response to the Chernobyl disaster and since then has evolved to be able to model the dispersion and deposition of a range of particles and gases, including biological particles such as wheat rust spores.
“The framework together with the underpinning technologies are transferable to forecast fungal disease in other regions and can be readily adapted for other wind-dispersed pests and disease of major agricultural crops,” said Christopher Gilligan, head of the Epidemiology and Modelling Group at the University of Cambridge.
Fungal wheat diseases are an increasing threat to farmer livelihoods in Asia
Wheat leaf rust can be spotted on a wheat plant of a highly susceptible variety in Nepal. The symptoms of wheat rust are dusty, reddish-orange to reddish-brown fruiting bodies that appear on the leaf surface. These lesions produce numerous spores, which are spread by wind and splashing water. (Photo: D Hodson/CIMMYT)
While there has been a history of wheat rust disease epidemics in South Asia, new emerging strains and changes to climate pose an increased threat to farmers’ livelihoods. The pathogens that cause rust diseases are continually evolving and changing over time, making them difficult to control.
Stripe rust threatens farmers in Afghanistan, India, Nepal and Pakistan, typically in two out of five seasons, with an estimated 43 million hectares of wheat vulnerable. When weather conditions are conducive and susceptible cultivars are grown, farmers can experience losses exceeding 70%.
Populations of stem rust are building at alarming rates and previously unseen scales in neighboring regions. Stem rust spores can spread across regions on the wind; this also amplifies the threat of incursion into South Asia and the ARRCC program’s target countries, underscoring the very real risk that the disease could reemerge within the subcontinent.
The devastating wheat blast disease, originating in the Americas, suddenly appeared in Bangladesh in 2016, causing wheat crop losses as high as 30% on a large area, and continues to threaten South Asia’s vast wheat lands.
In both cases, quick international responses through CIMMYT, the CGIAR research program on Wheat (WHEAT) and the Borlaug Global Rust Initiative have been able to monitor and characterize the diseases and, especially, to develop and deploy resistant wheat varieties.
The UK aid-funded ARRCC program is led by the Met Office and the World Bank and aims to strengthen weather forecasting systems across Asia. The program is delivering new technologies and innovative approaches to help vulnerable communities use weather warnings and forecasts to better prepare for climate-related shocks.
The early warning system uses data gathered from the online Rust Tracker tool, with additional fieldwork support from the Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia (CSISA), funded by USAID and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, both coordinated by CIMMYT.
One of the researchers behind the study, Yoseph Alemayehu, carries out a field survey in Ethiopia by mobile phone. (Photo Dave Hodson/CIMMYT)
TEXCOCO, Mexico — Using field and mobile phone surveillance data together with forecasts for spore dispersal and environmental suitability for disease, an international team of scientists has developed an early warning system which can predict wheat rust diseases in Ethiopia. The cross-disciplinary project draws on expertise from biology, meteorology, agronomy, computer science and telecommunications.
Reported this week in Environmental Research Letters, the new early warning system, the first of its kind to be implemented in a developing country, will allow policy makers and farmers all over Ethiopia to gauge the current situation and forecast wheat rust up to a week in advance.
The system was developed by the University of Cambridge, the UK Met Office, the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR), the Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Agency (ATA) and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT). It works by taking near real-time information from wheat rust surveys carried out by EIAR, regional research centers and CIMMYT using a smartphone app called Open Data Kit (ODK).
This is complemented by crowd-sourced information from the ATA-managed Farmers’ Hotline. The University of Cambridge and the UK Met Office then provide automated 7-day advance forecast models for wheat rust spore dispersal and environmental suitability based on disease presence.
All of this information is fed into an early warning unit that receives updates automatically on a daily basis. An advisory report is sent out every week to development agents and national authorities. The information also gets passed on to researchers and farmers.
Example of weekly stripe rust spore deposition based on dispersal forecasts. Darker colors represent higher predicted number of spores deposited. (Graphic: University of Cambridge/UK Met Office)
Timely alerts
“If there’s a high risk of wheat rust developing, farmers will get a targeted SMS text alert from the Farmers’ Hotline. This gives the farmer about three weeks to take action,” explained Dave Hodson, principal scientist with CIMMYT and co-author of the research study. The Farmers’ Hotline now has over four million registered farmers and extension agents, enabling rapid information dissemination throughout Ethiopia.
Ethiopia is the largest wheat producer in sub-Saharan Africa but the country still spends in excess of $600 million annually on wheat imports. More can be grown at home and the Ethiopian government has targeted to achieve wheat self-sufficiency by 2023.
“Rust diseases are a grave threat to wheat production in Ethiopia. The timely information from this new system will help us protect farmers’ yields, and reach our goal of wheat self-sufficiency,” said EIAR Director Mandefro Nigussie.
Wheat rusts are fungal diseases that can be dispersed by wind over long distances, quickly causing devastating epidemics which can dramatically reduce wheat yields. Just one outbreak in 2010 affected 30% of Ethiopia’s wheat growing area and reduced production by 15-20%.
The pathogens that cause rust diseases are continually evolving and changing over time, making them difficult to control. “New strains of wheat rust are appearing all the time — a bit like the flu virus,” explained Hodson.
In the absence of resistant varieties, one solution to wheat rust is to apply fungicide, but the Ethiopian government has limited supplies. The early warning system will help to prioritize areas at highest risk of the disease, so that the allocation of fungicides can be optimized.
Example of weekly stripe rust environmental suitability forecast. Yellow to Brown show the areas predicted to be most suitable for stripe rust infection. (Graphic: University of Cambridge/UK Met Office)
The cream of the crop
The early warning system puts Ethiopia at the forefront of early warning systems for wheat rust. “Nowhere else in the world really has this type of system. It’s fantastic that Ethiopia is leading the way on this,” said Hodson. “It’s world-class science from the UK being applied to real-world problems.”
“This is an ideal example of how it is possible to integrate fundamental research in modelling from epidemiology and meteorology with field-based observation of disease to produce an early warning system for a major crop,” said Christopher Gilligan, head of the Epidemiology and Modelling Group at the University of Cambridge and a co-author of the paper, adding that the approach could be adopted in other countries and for other crops.
“The development of the early warning system was successful because of the great collaborative spirit between all the project partners,” said article co-author Clare Sader-Allen, currently a regional climate modeller at the British Antarctic Survey.
“Clear communication was vital for bringing together the expertise from a diversity of subjects to deliver a common goal: to produce a wheat rust forecast relevant for both policy makers and farmers alike.”
This study was made possible through the support provided by the BBSRC GCRF Foundation Awards for Global Agriculture and Food Systems Research, which brings top class UK science to developing countries, the Delivering Genetic Gains in Wheat (DGGW) Project managed by Cornell University and funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the UK Department for International Development (DFID). The Government of Ethiopia also provided direct support into the early warning system. This research is supported by CGIAR Fund Donors.
ABOUT CIMMYT:
The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) is the global leader in publicly-funded maize and wheat research and related farming systems. Headquartered near Mexico City, CIMMYT works with hundreds of partners throughout the developing world to sustainably increase the productivity of maize and wheat cropping systems, thus improving global food security and reducing poverty. CIMMYT is a member of the CGIAR System and leads the CGIAR Research Programs on Maize and Wheat and the Excellence in Breeding Platform. The Center receives support from national governments, foundations, development banks and other public and private agencies. For more information, visit staging.cimmyt.org.
ABOUT THE ETHIOPIAN INSTITUTE OF AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH (EIAR):
The Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR) is one of the oldest and largest agricultural research institutes in Africa, with roots in the Ethiopian Agricultural Research System (EARS), founded in the late 1940s. EIAR’s objectives are: (1) to generate, develop and adapt agricultural technologies that focus on the needs of the overall agricultural development and its beneficiaries; (2) to coordinate technically the research activities of Ethiopian Agricultural Research System; (3) build up a research capacity and establish a system that will make agricultural research efficient, effective and based on development needs; and (4) popularize agricultural research results. EIAR’s vision is to see improved livelihood of all Ethiopians engaged in agriculture, agro-pastoralism and pastoralism through market competitive agricultural technologies.
