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Tag: climate risk

Gridded crop modeling to simulate impacts of climate change and adaptation benefits in ACASA

Written by Julian Bañuelos-Uribe on . Posted in Blogs.

Global temperatures are projected to warm between 1.5-2 degrees Celsius by the year 2050, and 2-4 degrees Celsius by 2100. This is likely to change precipitation patterns, which will impact crop yields, water availability, food security, and agricultural resilience.

To prepare for these challenges, Atlas of Climate Adaptation in South Asian Agriculture (ACASA) uses process-based simulation models that can predict crop growth, development, and yield in order to understand the response of crops to climate change. Models such as Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT), InfoCrop, and Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) facilitate the field scale study of the biophysical and biochemical processes of crops under various environmental conditions, revealing how they are affected by changing weather patterns.

The ACASA team, along with experts from Columbia University and the University of Florida, met for a three-day workshop in January 2024 to boost the work on spatial crop modeling. The aim was to design a modeling protocol through a hands-on demonstration on high-performance computers. When scientifically executed, gridded spatial crop modeling–even though complex and data-intensive–can be a great way to frame adaptation and mitigation strategies for improving food security, which is one of ACASA’s goals.

ACASA’s Spatial Crop Modelling Group meets in Colombo, Sri Lanka, January 2024. (Photo: CIMMYT)

Decisions on data

The group decided to use DSSAT, APSIM, and InfoCrop for simulating the impact of climatic risks on crops such as rice, wheat, maize, sorghum, millet, pigeon pea, chickpea, groundnut, soybean, mustard, potato, cotton, and more. They chose harmonized protocols across all three models with standard inputs, such as conducting simulations at 0.05 degrees. The model input data about weather, soil, crop varietal coefficients, and crop management are being collected and processed for model input formats at 5 kilometer (km) spatial resolution.

A Python version called DSSAT-Pythia is now available to accelerate spatial and gridded applications. The programming for implementing InfoCrop on the Pythia platform is in progress. InfoCrop has been proven in India for past yield estimations, climate change spatial impact, and adaptation assessments for 12 crops.

For other crucial modeling components, a work plan was created including developing regional crop masks, crop zones based on mega-commodity environments as defined by CGIAR, production systems, crop calendars, and irrigated areas by crop. Genetic coefficients will then be calculated from measured past values and recent benchmark data of varietal units.

With this information, several adaptation options will be simulated, including changes in planting dates, stress-tolerant varieties, irrigation, and nitrogen fertilizer (quantity, methods, and technology), residue/mulching, and conservation tillage. The team will evaluate impact and adaptation benefits on yields, water, and nitrogen-use efficiency based on the reported percentage change from the baseline data.

As the project progresses, this work will make strides towards realizing food security for the planet and increasing the resilience of smallholder farming practices.

Blog written by Anooja Thomas, University of Florida; Apurbo K Chaki, BARI, Bangladesh; Gerrit Hoogenboom, University of Florida; S Naresh Kumar, ICAR-IARI, India

Unlocking insights from literature: exploring adaptation options in ACASA

Written by Julian Bañuelos-Uribe on . Posted in Blogs.

To address the vulnerability of increased climate risks which impact agriculture, it is imperative to identify location-specific adaptation options. Atlas of Climate Adaptation in South Asian Agriculture (ACASA) is working on identifying commodity specific hazards at different geographical regions and the key adaptation options aligned with geography and hazards. This has been done for major cereal crops (rice, wheat, and maize), coarse grains (millets), oilseeds (coconut, mustard), legumes and vegetable crops (chickpea, potato), livestock, and fisheries. In ACASA, Systematic Literature Review (SLR) serves as a fundamental tool to identify key climate adaptation options and assess their effectiveness, considering agroecological factors.

Literature reviews are a customary approach for researchers to grasp existing knowledge and findings. The SLR methodically establishes clear research objectives, employs structured search queries to identify relevant literature, applies defined exclusion criteria, and extracts data for scientific analysis. This structured approach facilitates mapping the literature, validating findings, identifying gaps, and refining methodologies thereby minimizing biases, and ensuring comprehensive coverage of evidence.

Commodity-specific research questions, aligned with the problem/population, intervention, comparison/consequences, outcome, and time PICO(T) framework, have been used to guide the search process. By utilizing keywords specific to these questions, ACASA sourced literature from reputable databases such as Web of Science, Scopus, Google Scholar, and local databases of South Asian countries: Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. Local databases and gray literature further bolstered the understanding of local conditions and broadened the coverage of studied literature.

Systematic Literature Review (SLR)

The searched literature was then filtered using the well-established Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta Analysis (PRISMA) framework. PRISMA provides a minimum set of evidence-based literature to be used for further analysis. Let us look at maize as an example of a commodity under analysis in ACASA. For maize, a total of 1,282 papers were identified and based on four exclusion criteria pertaining to adaptation options, quantitative assessment, hazard, and risk only of which 72 papers were shortlisted. The PRISMA framework supported in getting a manageable dataset for in-depth analysis while ensuring transparency in the overall filtering process.

After filtering through PRISMA, a bibliometric analysis was conducted which contained research trend analysis, regional distribution patterns, adaptation option categorizations, and a co-occurrence analysis. Useful patterns in popularity of studied adaptation options, hazards, and their linkages were observed through this analysis. For instance, drought was the most studied hazard, while pest diseases and economics were major hazard impacts studied for the maize literature. In terms of adaptation options, stress tolerant varieties were the most popular adaptation option. Further, co-occurrence analysis provided linkages between adaptation options and hazards, and demonstrated that researchers have also studied bundled technologies.

SLR helped understand the effectiveness of certain adaptation options. Going ahead, this step will be fully realized through a “meta-analysis” which will be pivotal in quantifying the evidence and prioritizing adaptation options for different agroecologies. SLR has proven to be an effective research method to build a comprehensive database that can be used across different thematic areas of ACASA. Adaptation options enlisted through SLR can be further substantiated through expert elicitations via heurism, crop modelling, cost-benefit analysis, and other important pillars of ACASA to identify efficient and cost-effective options.

SLR also provided the ACASA team with the opportunity to identify certain literature gaps such as uneven geographical coverage and excessive emphasis on certain adaptation options versus the rest. Conceptualization of systematically reviewing climate adaptation options in the South Asian context by integrating bibliometric and meta-analysis adds novelty to the current efforts of ACASA.

Blog written by Aniket Deo, BISA-CIMMYT India; Niveta Jain, ICAR-IARI India; Roshan B Ojha, NARC Nepal; and Sayla Khandoker, BARI Bangladesh

In Ethiopia, workshop brings together stakeholders on climate risk analysis outputs

Written by mcallejas on . Posted in News.

CIMMYT and the Global Center on Adaptation, along with the Ethiopian Ministry of Agriculture’s Food Systems Resilience Program (FSRP), presented the results of their joint research on climate risks during a two-day workshop held in October in Addis Ababa.

Participants of the workshop in Addis Ababa (Photo: CIMMYT).

For over a year and a half, agricultural experts, academics and scientists worked together under the project Digital Climate Advisory Services for Priority Agricultural Value Chains in Ethiopia, which aimed to analyze the risks posed by climate change on five value chains – wheat, maize, coffee, soybean and livestock – and to offer practical adaptation options. CIMMYT conducted the studies in collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture and with the sponsorship of GCA. The workshop was attended by experts from the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, the Ethiopian Metrology Agency, the Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Institute, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the Green Agro Solutions, among other organizations.

From research outcomes to practical solutions

As a prelude to the two-day discussion, CIMMYT senior scientist, Kindie Tesfaye, expressed his hopes that the research findings will be translated into practical solutions in the field. In turn, GCA Food Security senior program officer Mercy Nyambura invited the guests to share their insights, knowledge and expertise on how the joint research outputs could be put to use.

Highlighting that climate variability and climate extreme events are the main two factors undermining food security in Ethiopia, Keberu Belayneh, FSRP’s head at the Ministry of Agriculture, underlined the need for multi-partnerships to respond and adapt to climate change. He farther shared his hope that the program will contribute to the government’s ongoing efforts to ensure food security in the country.

Offering the perspective of a private sector actor, Green Agro Solutions’ executive director Abrhame Endrias hailed the partnership between his company and CIMMYT in five districts where the company deployed its digital platform LERSHA – “for agriculture” in Amharic. LERSHA provides farmers with vital weather forecasts, as well as other services such as farm inputs, mechanization services, and agro-climate advice. In addition, development agents are bridging the literacy gap between the farmers and the digital services, added Abrhame Endrias. In the five districts where CIMMYT and Green Agro Solutions partnered, LERSHA ‘s adoption rates increased, Abrhame Endrias noted.

Vibrant discussions

The results on the five value chains were presented in five different sessions. The first day of the workshop, Debre Markos University’s Dereje Ademe communicated the findings of the studies on the maize and soybean value chains, while  Abate Mekuriaw, associate professor at the Addis Ababa University, introduced the results on the wheat value chain. They were followed on the second day by  Adama Ndour and Mekdes Woldegiorgis, post-doctoral researchers at CIMMYT-Ethiopia, who discussed with the audience their findings on the current and future climate risks for the coffee and cattle value chains.

Echoing Kindie Tesfaye and Mercy Nyambura’s call, the conversations mainly focused on the potential implementation of the research outcomes, with multiple participants voicing their wishes to see the outputs cascading down to district levels.

Keberu Abayneh, the head of the FSRP in the Ministry of Agriculture, gave a closing remark at the end of the workshop thanking CIMMYT, the technical team that carried out the studies, the Ministry of Agriculture and all stakeholders who took part in it.

Following this, the first Regional Climate Risk Analysis Output Communication Workshop was held in Adama, Ethiopia, from November 13-14, 2023.

As highlighted in the first workshop, the research findings needed to be cascaded down to the regional and district level in order to be implemented successfully. To this end, the second workshop brought together the main representatives from regional agricultural offices in the 11 regional states, who engaged in discussions around the research findings, recommendations, and implementation methods. Researchers, agricultural experts, and representatives from the Ministry of Agriculture, Green Agro Solution, CIMMYT and FSRP also took part in the discussions.

Participants of the workshop in Adama (Photo: CIMMYT).

This workshop, held with the aim of engaging participants from 11 regional states in active discussions and gathering feedbacks, is believed to lay the groundwork for cascading down the research results for implementation.

When representatives from regional states presented on their respective areas, they found more common points than differences. Climate change risk on each of the five value chains is felt across Ethiopia due to extremes and variances in rainfall and temperatures, and many regions are shifting cultivating seasons, forwarded by up to three months because of late-onset of rainfall. These incidents are forcing farmers to change conventional cultivation patterns, with those who stick to the conventional schedule at risk of losing their yields. Some farmers have even changed the types of crops they grow as a result.

Participants noted that the recommended adaptation plans are commendable and implementable in their respective areas, with the proper guidance and resources. In order to ensure tangible impact, they asked for the research documents on the priority value chains to be communicated to a wider range of stakeholders in each regional state.

Creating awareness on the climate risk and the adaptation plans, building capacity to ensure the implementation, piloting and then scaling up implementation across the regional states with consistent monitoring and evaluation can bring effective results, stakeholders agreed.