Crops struggling to grow in drought conditions, Bihar (Photo: Moben Ignatius/CIMMYT)
Agriculture is one of the sectors most affected by droughts, which can last for months or even years. In Bihar, where rain-fed agriculture is the primary source of livelihood for many, droughts can be devastating for rural farmers. The growing threat of climate change to crop production and farming practices calls for adopting alternative farming methods. In 2022-23, many districts in Bihar experienced drought conditions.
To better understand the impact of drought on crop production practices and farmers’ livelihoods, researchers from CSISA, a CIMMYT-led project, conducted a survey in Bihar during both the Kharif and Rabi seasons of 2022-23, the year of the drought. In the Kharif season, 518 farmers from 11 districts, 39 blocks, and 79 villages were surveyed, while 339 farmers participated in the Rabi season survey. The primary goal of this data collection was to assess the impact of drought on agricultural practices and provide evidence to guide policy and decision-making processes.
The survey collected data on 123 variables related to rice production, including land preparation, cropping patterns for 2022 and 2021, crop establishment methods, irrigation management, fertilizer application, and weed management. Farmers also shared their perceptions of how the drought had altered their rice production practices and affected their livelihoods compared to the previous year.
For many farmers, the experience of the drought was harsh. Magni Singh from East Champaran reflected on the challenges: “This year (2022), the drought hit us hard. I could only plant paddy on a small piece of land, but with no rain, there was not much harvest. Our fragmented land makes efficient irrigation almost impossible, and relying on rain feels like gambling with each season. Farming in these conditions is becoming increasingly unsustainable.”
Similarly, Shanti Devi of Banka shared her struggles: “The season started with drought, and we struggled to get water to the crops. By the time the rain came, it was too late – it came during the harvest and damaged the crop. I couldn’t afford fertilizers in time, which made things worse. Every year, it feels like we’re battling both nature and rising costs.”
This drought impact assessment by CSISA is also valuable for further research, particularly for comparing rice production practices between drought and non-drought years. Such comparisons can help researchers and policymakers develop effective drought mitigation strategies tailored to farmers’ needs.
An electric pump used to irrigate a paddy field in Buxar, Bihar (Photo: Nima Chodon/CIMMYT)
Wheat leaves showing symptoms of heat stress. (Photo: CIMMYT)
Across South Asia, including major wheat-producing regions of India and Pakistan, temperature extremes are threatening wheat production. Heatwaves have been reported throughout the region, with a century record for early onset of extreme heat. Monthly average temperatures across India for March and April 2022 exceeded those recorded over the past 100 years.
Widely recognized as one of the major breadbaskets of the world, the Indo-Gangetic Plains region produces over 100 million tons of wheat annually, from 30 million hectares in Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan, primarily supporting large domestic demand.
The optimal window for wheat planting is the first half of November. The late onset of the 2021 summer monsoon delayed rice planting and its subsequent harvest in the fall. This had a knock-on effect, delaying wheat planting by one to two weeks and increasing the risk of late season heat stress in March and April. Record-high temperatures over 40⁰C were observed on several days in March 2022 in the Punjabs of India and Pakistan as well as in the state of Haryana, causing wheat to mature about two weeks earlier than usual.
In-season changes and effects
Prior to the onset of extreme heat, the weather in the current season in India was favorable, prompting the Government of India to predict a record-high wheat harvest of 111 million tons. The March heat stress was unexpected and appears to have had a significant effect on the wheat crop, advancing the harvest and likely reducing yields.
Departure of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) during the period from March 22 to April 7 from the average of the previous five years. The NDVI is a measure of the leaf area and the greenness of vegetation. The yellow areas in the Punjabs of India and Pakistan, as well as in the state of Haryana, indicate that wheat matured earlier than normal due to elevated temperatures. Maximum temperatures reached 40⁰C on March 15 and remained at or above this level throughout the wheat harvesting period. (Map: Urs Schulthess/CIMMYT).
In the North-Western Plains, the major wheat basket of India, the area of late-sown wheat is likely to have been most affected even though many varieties carry heat tolerance. Data from CIMMYT’s on-farm experiments show a yield loss between 15 to 20% in that region. The states of Haryana and Punjab together contribute almost 30% of India’s total wheat production and notably contribute over 60% of the government’s buffer stocks. In the North-Eastern Plains, in the states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, around 40% of the wheat crop was normal or even early sown, escaping heat damage, whilst the remainder of late-sown wheat is likely to be impacted at a variable level, as most of the crop in this zone matures during the third and fourth week of March.
The Government of India has now revised wheat production estimates, with a reduction of 5.7%, to 105 million tons because of the early onset of summer.
India has reported record yields for the past 5 years, helping it to meet its goal of creating a reserve stock of 40 million tons of wheat after the 2021 harvest. It went into this harvest season with a stock of 19 million tons, and the country is in a good position to face this year’s yield loss.
In Pakistan, using satellite-based crop monitoring systems, the national space agency Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SPARCO) estimated wheat production reduction close to 10%: 26 million tons, compared to the production target of 29 million tons, for the 2021-22 season.
We recommend that systematic research be urgently undertaken to characterize and understand the impacts of elevated temperatures on the health of field-based workers involved in wheat production. This is needed to develop a holistic strategy for adapting our global cropping systems to climate change.
India had pledged to provide increased wheat exports to bolster global supplies, but this now looks uncertain given the necessity to safeguard domestic supplies. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Indian government supported domestic food security by providing free rations — mainly wheat and rice — to 800 million people over several months. This type of support relies on the availability of large buffer stocks which appear stable, but may be reduced if grain production and subsequent procurement levels are lower than desired.
We are already seeing indications of reduced procurement by governments with market prices running higher than usual. However, although the Food Corporation of India has procured 27% less wheat grain in the first 20 days of the wheat procurement season compared to the same period last year, the Government of India is confident about securing sufficient wheat buffer stocks.
As with the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, it is likely that the most marked effects of both climate change and shortages of staple crops will hit the poorest and most vulnerable communities hardest.
A chain reaction of climate impacts
The real impacts of reduced wheat production due to extreme temperatures in South Asia demonstrate the realities of the climate emergency facing wheat and agricultural production. Direct impacts on farming community health must also be considered, as our agricultural workforce is pushed to new physical limits.
Anomalies, which are likely to become the new normal, can set off a chain reaction as seen here: the late onset of the summer monsoon caused delays in the sowing of rice and the subsequent wheat crop. The delayed wheat crop was hit by the unprecedented heatwave in mid- to late March at a relatively earlier stage, thus causing even more damage.
Preparing for wheat production tipping points
Urgent action is required to develop applied mitigation and adaptation strategies, as well as to plan for transition and tipping points when key staple crops such as wheat can no longer be grown in traditional production regions.
A strategic design process is needed, supported by crop and climate models, to develop and test packages of applied solutions for near-future climate changes. On-farm evidence from many farmers’ fields in Northwestern India indicates that bundled solutions — no-till direct seeding with surface retention of crop residues coupled with early seeding of adapted varieties of wheat with juvenile heat tolerance — can help to buffer terminal heat stress and limit yield losses.
Last but not least, breeding wheat for high-temperature tolerance will continue to be crucial for securing production. Strategic planning needs to also encompass the associated social, market and political elements which underpin equitable food supply and stability.
In Odisha and Bihar, CSISA has leveraged the social capital of women’s self-help groups formed by the government and other civil society partners and which offer entry points for training and social mobilization, as well as access to credit. (Photo: CSISA)
Self-help groups in Bihar, India, are putting thousands of rural women in touch with agricultural innovations, including mechanization and sustainable intensification, that save time, money, and critical resources such as soil and water, benefiting households and the environment.
The Bihar Rural Livelihoods Promotion Society, locally known as Jeevika, has partnered with the Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia (CSISA), led by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), to train women’s self-help groups and other stakeholders in practices such as zero tillage, early sowing of wheat, direct-seeded rice and community nurseries.
Through their efforts to date, more than 35,000 households are planting wheat earlier than was customary, with the advantage that the crop fully fills its grain before the hot weather of late spring. In addition, some 18,000 households are using zero tillage, in which they sow wheat directly into unplowed fields and residues, a practice that improves soil quality and saves water, among other benefits. As many as 5,000 households have tested non-flooded, direct-seeded rice cultivation during 2018-19, which also saves water and can reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
An autonomous body under the Bihar Department of Rural Development, Jeevika is also helping women to obtain specialized equipment for zero tillage and for the mechanized transplanting of rice seedlings into paddies, which reduces women’s hard labor of hand transplanting.
“Mechanization is helping us manage our costs and judiciously use our time in farming,” says Rekha Devi, a woman farmer member of Jeevika Gulab self-help group of Beniwal Village, Jamui District. “We have learned many new techniques through our self-help group.”
With more than 100 million inhabitants and over 1,000 persons per square kilometer, Bihar is India’s most densely-populated state. Nearly 90 percent of its people live in rural areas and agriculture is the main occupation. Women in Bihar play key roles in agriculture, weeding, harvesting, threshing, and milling crops, in addition to their household chores and bearing and caring for children, but they often lack access to training, vital information, or strategic technology.
Like all farmers in South Asia, they also face risks from rising temperatures, variable rainfall, resource degradation, and financial constraints.
Jeevika has formed more than 700,000 self-help groups in Bihar, mobilizing nearly 8.4 million poor households, 25,000 village organizations, and 318 cluster-level federations in all 38 districts of Bihar.
The organization also fosters access for women to “custom-hiring” businesses, which own the specialized implement for practices such as zero tillage and will sow or perform other mechanized services for farmers at a cost. “Custom hiring centers help farmers save time in sowing, harvesting and threshing,” said Anil Kumar, Program Manager, Jeevika.
The staff training, knowledge and tools shared by CSISA have been immensely helpful in strengthening the capacity of women farmers, according to D. Balamurugan, CEO of Jeevika. “We aim to further strengthen our partnership with CSISA and accelerate our work with women farmers, improving their productivity while saving their time and costs,” Balamurugan said.
CSISA is implemented jointly by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI). It is funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).
