Ethiopian wheat farmers will soon benefit from the CRAFT tool. (Credit: Bioversity)
The negative impacts of climate shocks have undermined the food security of millions of people in Ethiopia, where predominantly rain-fed agriculture and cereals comprise 82% of the crop area and are particularly susceptible to extreme climate events like drought or flooding. Predictions that can account for potential climate events can facilitate efforts of governmental agencies to proactively engage in climate mitigation efforts.
The five-day training workshop exposed select national experts involved in data collection and analysis of crop performance to the CRAFT tool, which is expected to improve accuracy, efficiency, and speed of forecasts.
The participants of the training were experts from the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), National Meteorology Agency (NMA), and Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission (EDRMC).
CRAFT has been developed in collaboration with CIMMYT, the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), and the University of Florida through the Capacitating African Smallholders with Climate Advisories and Insurance Development (CASCAID-II) program. CRAFT is a flexible and adaptable software platform, relying on a crop engine to run pre-installed crop models and on the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) to utilize seasonal climate predictions to produce crop yield forecasts. The tool has been calibrated, evaluated, and tested under Ethiopian ecological conditions.
In the opening of the training workshop, Esayas Lemma, Director of the Crop Development Directorate at the MoA, emphasized institutions must be equipped with the necessary analytical and decision support tools to enable decision makers to make critical decisions at the right time due to increasing challenges to food security. He added the training organized by CIMMYT through the AICCRA-Ethiopia project was timely and important for enhancing the capacity of the experts drawn from the three institutions and building national capacity in using modern decision support tools.
Kindie Tesfaye, senior scientist at CIMMYT, stated the training was organized to help experts in national institutions in applying decision support tools to equip decision makers with information to help them minimize costs, save lives, and enhance long-term climate risk management and policy options in Ethiopia. “We hope to bring this technology to other countries following this roll-out in Ethiopia,” Tesfaye said.
“The training is an eye-opener for me, and this is the type of tool that we have been looking for,” said Mss. Berktawit, a trainee from EDRMC.
“The CRAFT tool has several applications in the MoA, and we are lucky to have this training. With some additional training, we at the ministry should be able to use it to support our crop monitoring and early warning works,” said Mr. Zewdu, a trainee from the MoA.
A follow up training session will be organized to certify participants as they continue working with CRAFT. “Feedback from these users will be vital to optimize inputs for CRAFT and to develop an intuitive user interface,” Tesfaye said.
Kate Dreher, Data Manager at CIMMYT, presents to scientists, technicians, data management and support teams during the training on the Enterprise Breeding System (EBS) in Nairobi, Kenya. (Photo: Susan Umazi Otieno/CIMMYT)
Scientists overseeing breeding, principal technicians and data management and support staff from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) learned about the Enterprise Breeding System (EBS) at a training in Nairobi, Kenya, on May 4–6, 2022. This was the first in-person training on this advanced tool held in Eastern Africa.
Kate Dreher, Data Manager at CIMMYT, was the primary trainer. Dreher sought to ensure that scientists and their teams are well equipped to confidently use the EBS for their programs, including the creation and management of trials and nurseries. During the training, participants had the opportunity to test, review and give feedback on the system.
“The EBS is an online comprehensive system that brings together different types of data, including field observations and genotypic data, to harmonize processes across all teams and enable optimized decision-making in the short term and continuous learning for the long term,” Dreher said.
She explained that the EBS is more efficient than the former approach of using the Excel-based Maize Fieldbook software, even though it managed several useful processes.
The EBS is currently available to registered breeding and support team members and data managers from CIMMYT, IITA, IRRI and AfricaRice, across all geographies where related programs are implemented. Currently, the EBS is used by programs in maize, rice and wheat crops.
A more streamlined approach
“Although teams sent germplasm and phenotypic data for centralized storage in two databases (IMIS-GMS and MaizeFinder) managed by the data management team in Mexico in the past, this required curation after the data had already been generated,” Dreher said. “The EBS will enable teams to manage their germplasm and trial nursery data directly within one system.”
The EBS stores information on germplasm and linked seed inventory items. It is also designed to house and perform analyses using phenotypic and genotypic data. Users can also capture metadata about their trials and nurseries, such as basic agronomic management information and the GPS coordinates of sites where experiments are conducted.
Yoseph Beyene, Regional Maize Breeding Coordinator for Africa and Maize Breeder for Eastern Africa at CIMMYT, observed that the training gave him firsthand information on the current capabilities and use of the live version to search germplasm and seed, and the capabilities to create nurseries and trials.
“In the AGG project, we have one primary objective which focuses on implementing improved data management, experimental designs and breeding methods to accelerate genetic gain and improved breeding efficiency. Therefore, implementing EBS is one of the top priorities for AGG project,” said Yoseph, who leads the Accelerating Genetic Gains in Maize and Wheat for Improved Livelihoods Project (AGG).
Lourine Bii, an Assistant Research Associate who recently joined CIMMYT and the only female research technician on the Global Maize program based in Kenya, also found the training useful. “The EBS is a fantastic system that enables an individual to create experiments. The system links a team, for instance a product development team, to get live updates on the various stages of creating an experiment, reducing back and forth by email.”
The system’s software development is ongoing. The development team continues to add and enhance features based on feedback from users.
Given the very heterogeneous conditions in smallholder agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa, there is a growing policy interest in site-specific extension advice and the use of related digital tools. However, empirical ex ante studies on the design of this type of tools are scant and little is known about their impact on site-specific extension advice.
In partnership with Oyakhilomen Oyinbo and colleagues at KU Leuven, scientists at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) have carried out research to clarify user preferences for tailored nutrient management advice and decision-support tools. The studies also evaluated the impact of targeted fertilizer recommendations enabled by such tools.
Understanding farmers’ adoption
A better understanding of farmers’ and extension agents’ preferences may help to optimize the design of digital decision-support tools.
Oyinbo and co-authors conducted a study among 792 farming households in northern Nigeria, to examine farmers’ preferences for maize intensification in the context of site-specific extension advice using digital tools.
Overall, farmers were favorably disposed to switch from general fertilizer use recommendations to targeted nutrient management recommendations for maize intensification enabled by decision-support tools. This lends credence to the inclusion of digital tools in agricultural extension. The study also showed that farmers have heterogeneous preferences for targeted fertilizer recommendations, depending on their resources, sensitivity to risk and access to services.
The authors identified two groups of farmers with different preference patterns: a first group described as “strong potential adopters of site-specific extension recommendations for more intensified maize production” and a second group as “weak potential adopters.” While the two groups of farmers are willing to accept some yield variability for a higher average yield, the trade-off is on average larger for the first group, who have more resources and are less sensitive to risk.
The author recommended that decision-support tools include information on the riskiness of expected investment returns and flexibility in switching between low- and high-risk recommendations. This design improvement will help farmers to make better informed decisions.
Community leaders talk to researchers in one of the villages in norther Nigeria which took part in the study. (Photo: Oyakhilomen Oyinbo)
Members of the survey team participate in a training session at Bayero University Kano, Nigeria. (Photo: Oyakhilomen Oyinbo)
One of the sites of nutrient omission trials, used during the development phase of the Nutrient Expert tool in Nigeria. (Photo: Oyakhilomen Oyinbo)
Using data from a discrete choice experiment, the study showed that extension agents were generally willing to accept the use of digital decision-support tools for site‐specific fertilizer recommendations. While extension agents in the sample preferred tools with a more user‐friendly interface that required less time to generate an output, the authors also found substantial preference heterogeneity for other design features. Some extension agents cared more about the outputs, such as information accuracy and level of detail, while others prioritized practical features such as the tool’s platform, language or interface.
According to the authors, accounting for such variety of preferences into the design of decision-support tools may facilitate their adoption by extension agents and, in turn, enhance their impact in farmars’ agricultural production decisions.
Interface of the Nutrient Expert mobile app, locally calibrated for maize farmers in Nigeria.
Impact of digital tools
Traditional extension systems in sub-Saharan African countries, including Nigeria, often provide general fertilizer use recommendations which do not account for the substantial variation in production conditions. Such blanket recommendations are typically accompanied by point estimates of expected agronomic responses and associated economic returns, but they do not provide any information on the variability of the expected returns associated with output price risk.
Policymakers need a better understanding of how new digital agronomy tools for tailored recommendations affect the performance of smallholder farms in developing countries.
To contribute to the nascent empirical literature on this topic, Oyinbo and colleagues evaluated the impact of a nutrient management decision-support tool for maize – Nutrient Expert — on fertilizer use, management practices, yields and net revenues. The authors also evaluated the impacts of providing information about variability in expected investment returns.
To provide rigorous evidence, the authors conducted a three-year randomized controlled trial among 792 maize-producing households in northern Nigeria. The trial included two treatment groups who are exposed to site-specific fertilizer recommendations through decision-support tools — one with and another one without additional information on variability in expected returns — and a control group who received general fertilizer use recommendations.
Overall, the use of nutrient management decision-support tools resulted in greater fertilizer investments and better grain yields compared with controls. Maize grain yield increased by 19% and net revenue increased by 14% after two years of the interventions. Fertilizer investments only increased significantly among the farmers who received additional information on the variability in expected investment returns.
The findings suggest including site-specific decision support tools into extension programming and related policy interventions has potential benefits on maize yields and food security, particularly when such tools also supply information on the distribution of expected returns to given investment recommendations.
The research-for-development community has tried different approaches to optimize fertilizer recommendations. In Nigeria, there are several tools available to generate location-specific fertilizer recommendations, including Nutrient Expert. As part of the Taking Maize Agronomy to Scale in Africa (TAMASA) project, CIMMYT has been working on locally calibrated versions of this tool for maize farmers in Ethiopia, Nigeria and Tanzania. The development was led by a project team incorporating scientists from the African Plant Nutrition Institute (APNI), CIMMYT and local development partners in each country.
Next steps
Some studies have shown that dis-adoption of seemingly profitable technologies — such as fertilizer in sub-Saharan Africa — is quite common, especially when initial returns fall short of expectations or net utility is negative, producing a disappointment effect.
In the context of emerging digital decision-support tools for well-targeted fertilizer use recommendations, it remains unclear whether farmers’ initial input use responses and the associated economic returns affect their subsequent responses — and whether the disappointment effect can be attenuated through provision of information about uncertainty in expected returns.
Using our three-year randomized controlled trial and the associated panel dataset, researchers are now working on documenting the third-year responses of farmers to site-specific agronomic advice conditional on the second-year responses. Specifically, they seek to better document whether providing farmers with information about seasonal variability in expected investment returns can reduce possible disappointment effects associated with their initial uptake of site-specific agronomic advice and, in a way, limit dis-adoption of fertilizer.
Cover photo: A farmer shows maize growing in his field, in one of the communities in northern Nigeria where research took place. (Photo: Oyakhilomen Oyinbo)
A new digital soil map for Nepal provides access to location-specific information on soil properties for any province, district, municipality or a particular area of interest. The interactive map provides information that will be useful to make new crop- and site-specific fertilizer recommendations for the country.
Produced by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), in collaboration with Nepal Agricultural Research Council’s (NARC) National Soil Science Research Center (NSSRC), this is the first publicly available soil map in South Asia that covers the entire country.
The Prime Minister of Nepal, K.P. Sharma Oli, officially launched the digital soil map at an event on February 24, 2021. Oli highlighted the benefits the map would bring to support soil fertility management in the digital era in Nepal. He emphasized its sustainability and intended use, mainly by farmers.
CIMMYT and NSSRC made a live demonstration of the digital soil map. They also developed and distributed an informative booklet that gives an overview of the map’s major features, operation guidelines, benefits, management and long-term plans.
The launch event was led by the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development and organized in coordination with NARC, as part of the Nepal Seed and Fertilizer (NSAF) project, implemented by CIMMYT. More than 200 people participated in the event, including government officials, policymakers, scientists, professors, development partner representatives, private sector partners and journalists. The event was also livestreamed.
Better decisions
Immediately after the launch of the digital soil map, its CPU usage grew up to 94%. Two days after the launch, 64 new accounts had been created, who downloaded different soil properties data in raster format for use in maps and models.
The new online resource was prepared using soil information from 23,273 soil samples collected from the National Land Use Project, Central Agricultural Laboratory and Nepal Agricultural Research Council. The samples were collected from 56 districts covering seven provinces. These soil properties were combined with environmental covariates (soil forming factors) derived from satellite data and spatial predictions of soil properties were generated using advanced machine learning tools and methods.
The platform is hosted and managed by NARC, who will update the database periodically to ensure its effective management, accuracy and use by local government and relevant stakeholders. The first version of the map was finalized and validated through a workshop organized by NSSRC among different stakeholders, including retired soil scientists and university professors.
Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio, principal scientist at CIMMYT, shared his remarks in a video message. (Photo: Shashish Maharjan/CIMMYT)
“The ministry can use the map to make more efficient management decisions on import, distribution and recommendation of appropriate fertilizer types, including blended fertilizers. The same information will also support provincial governments to select suitable crops and design extension programs for improving soil health,” said Padma Kumari Aryal, Minister of Agriculture and Livestock Development, who chaired the event. “The private sector can utilize the acquired soil information to build interactive and user-friendly mobile apps that can provide soil properties and fertilizer-related information to farmers as part of commercial agri-advisory extension services,” she said.
“These soil maps will not only help to increase crop yields, but also the nutritional value of these crops, which in return will help solve problems of public health such as zinc deficiency in Nepal’s population,” explained Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio, principal scientist at CIMMYT, in a video message.
Yogendra Kumar Karki, secretary of the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development, presented the program objectives and Deepak Bhandari, executive director of NARC, talked about the implementation of the map and its sustainability. Special remarks were also delivered by USAID Nepal’s mission director, the secretary of Livestock, scientists and professors from Tribhuwan University, the International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC) and the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD).
K.P. Sharma Oli (left), Prime Minister of Nepal, and Padma Kumari Aryal, Minister of Agriculture and Livestock Development, launch the digital soil map. (Photo: Shashish Maharjan/CIMMYT)
Benefits of digital soil mapping
Soil properties affect crop yield and production. In Nepal, access to soil testing facilities is rather scarce, making it difficult for farmers to know the fertilizer requirement of their land. The absence of a well-developed soil information system and soil fertility maps has been lacking for decades, leading to inadequate strategies for soil fertility and fertilizer management to improve crop productivity. Similarly, existing blanket-type fertilizer recommendations lead to imbalanced application of plant nutrients and fertilizers by farmers, which also negatively affects crop productivity and soil health.
This is where digital soil mapping comes in handy. It allows users to identify a domain with similar soil properties and soil fertility status. The digital platform provides access to domain-specific information on soil properties including soil texture, soil pH, organic matter, nitrogen, available phosphorus and potassium, and micronutrients such as zinc and boron across Nepal’s arable land.
Farmers and extension agents will be able to estimate the total amount of fertilizer required for a particular domain or season. As a decision-support tool, policy makers and provincial government can design and implement programs for improving soil fertility and increasing crop productivity. The map also allows users to identify areas with deficient plant nutrients and provide site-specific fertilizer formulations; for example, determining the right type of blended fertilizers required for balanced fertilization programs. Academics can also obtain periodic updates from these soil maps and use it as a resource while teaching their students.
As digital soil mapping advances, NSSRC will work towards institutionalizing the platform, building awareness at the province and local levels, validating the map, and establishing a national soil information system for the country.
A CIMMYT technician cuts a leaf sample for DNA extraction. (Photo: CIMMYT)
Wheat breeders from across the globe took a big step towards modernizing their molecular breeding skills at a recent workshop sponsored by the Wheat Initiative, with the CGIAR Excellence in Breeding Platform (EiB) and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT).
The workshop focused on three open-source tools used in molecular breeding: GOBii-GDM for genomic data management, Flapjack for data visualization and breeding analysis, and Galaxy for Genomic Selection. These tools help breeders make selections more quickly and precisely, and ultimately lead to more cost effective and efficient improvement of varieties.
The Wheat Initiative — a global scientific collaboration whose goals are to create improved wheat varieties and disseminate better agronomic practices worldwide — and its Breeding Methods and Strategies expert working group had planned to host these trainings during the 2020 Borlaug Global Rust Initiative Technical Workshop in the United Kingdom. After it became obvious that in-person trainings were not possible, the course organizers — including CIMMYT molecular wheat breeder Susanne Dreisigacker and EiB Adoption Lead and former GOBii project director Elizabeth Jones — decided to come together to host online workshops.
Many of the tools will be incorporated into EiB’s Enterprise Breeding System (EBS), a new integrated data management system being developed for CGIAR breeders. Jones plans to also design training modules for these molecular breeding tools that will be accessible to anyone through the EiB Toolbox.
The first session of the workshop “Transforming Wheat Breeding Through Integrated Data Management with GOBii and Analysis in Flapjack” benefited breeders from Australia, Canada, Ethiopia, France, India, Ireland, Italy, Morocco, Pakistan, Switzerland, Tunisia, the United Kingdom and the United States.
Susanne Dreisigacker presents during one of the sessions of the workshop.
Powering data analysis around the world
The workshop series, “Transforming Wheat Breeding Through Integrated Data Management with GOBii and Analysis in Flapjack,” aimed to benefit breeders from wheat producing countries all over the world, with sessions over two different time zones spread out over three days to reduce “Zoom fatigue.” Participants joined the first session from Australia, Canada, Ethiopia, France, India, Ireland, Italy, Morocco, Pakistan, Switzerland, Tunisia, the United Kingdom and the United States.
“It was wonderful to see the diversity of participants that we were able to train through an online workshop, many of whom otherwise might not have been able to travel to the UK for the original meeting,” said Jones. “Participants were very engaged, making the workshop so rewarding.”
The workshop was guided by Teresa Saavedra, Wheat Initiative coordinator. Apart from Dreisigacker and Jones, other trainers explained specific tools and approaches. Iain Milne from the James Hutton Institute in Scotland gave more details about the Flapjack genotyping visualization tool, which includes analysis for pedigree verification, marker assisted backcrossing and forward breeding. Andrew Kowalczyk, developer at Diversity Arrays Technology, spoke about the genotyping data QC tool DArTView.
A CIMMYT technician performs one of the steps to extract DNA samples from plants. (Photo: CIMMYT)
Clay Sneller, wheat breeder at Ohio State University, contributed training materials for important molecular breeding tools. Carlos Ignacio, previously based at the International Rice Research Center (IRRI) and now working on a PhD in Genomic Selection at Ohio State University, contributed his experience as a GOBii team member and a major contributor towards the design of Flapjack tools. Star Gao, application specialist with GOBii and now a requirements analyst for the Enterprise Breeding System, also facilitated the sessions.
Gilles Charmet, research director at the France’s National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment (INRAE), introduced the sessions in the Americas/Europe time zone with welcome remarks and overview of the goals of the Wheat Initiative. Alison Bentley, director of the CIMMYT Global Wheat Program, briefed on the achievements and goals of the CIMMYT Wheat program and the Accelerating Genetic Gains in Maize and Wheat for Improved Livelihoods (AGG) project.
“This training will contribute towards us reaching our AGG goals of accelerating gains in wheat, by sharing technical knowledge, and allowing our beneficiary partners to have state-of-the-art know-how in the use of genetic and genomic data,” Bentley said.
Participant Stéphane Boury from Caussade Semences, France commented, “This was a very effective way to learn about new tools in wheat breeding.”
The sessions continue in Australasia next week, and will be introduced by Peter Langridge, chair of the Scientific Board for the Wheat Initiative, and EiB director Michael Quinn. Sanjay Kumar Singh, incoming chair of the Breeding expert working group for the Wheat Initiative, will close the event.
A farmer in the Ara district, in India’s Bihar state, applies NPK fertilizer, composed primarily of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium. (Photo: Dakshinamurthy Vedachalam/CIMMYT)
An international team of scientists, led by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), has demonstrated how better nutrient management using digital tools, such as the Nutrient Expert decision support tool, can boost rice and wheat productivity and increase farmers’ income while reducing chemical fertilizer use and greenhouse gas emissions.
Reported today in Nature Scientific Reports, the results show how the farmer-friendly digital nutrient management tool can play a key role in fighting climate change while closing the yield gap and boosting farmers’ profits.
The researchers tested the Nutrient Expert decision tool against typical farmer fertilization practices extensively using approximately 1600 side-by side comparison trials in rice and wheat fields across the Indo-Gangetic Plains of India.
The study found that Nutrient Expert-based recommendations lowered global warming potential by 12-20% in wheat and by around 2.5% in rice, compared to conventional farmers’ fertilization practices. Over 80% of farmers were also able to increase their crop yields and incomes using the tool.
Agriculture is the second largest contributor of greenhouse gas emissions in India. To tackle these emissions, crop scientists have been working on new ways to make farming more nutrient- and energy-efficient. Of the many technologies available, improving nutrient-use-efficiency through balanced fertilizer application — which in turn reduces excess fertilizer application — is key to ensuring food security while at the same time contributing to the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals on climate change.
The work was carried out by CIMMYT in collaboration with farmers, and funded by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), the CGIAR Research Program on Wheat (WHEAT), and the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR). Scientists from the Borlaug Institute for South Asia (BISA), the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, and the former International Plant Nutrition Institute (IPNI) also contributed to this study.
Researchers tested the Nutrient Expert decision tool against typical farmer fertilization practices extensively using approximately 1600 side-by side comparison trials in rice and wheat fields across the Indo-Gangetic Plains of India (Graphic: CIMMYT).
Precise recommendations
Nutrient Expert, which was launched back in 2013, works by analysing growing conditions, natural nutrients in the soil, and even leftover nutrients from previous crops to provide tailored fertilizer recommendations directly to farmers phones. The tool also complements the Government of India’s Soil Health Cards for balanced and precise nutrient recommendations in smallholder farmers’ fields.
Each farmer’s field is different, which is why blanket fertilizer recommendations aren’t always effective in producing better yields. By using nutrient management tools such as Nutrient Expert, farmers can obtain fertilizer recommendations specific to the conditions of their field as well as their economic resources and thus avoid under-fertilizing or over-fertilizing their fields.
“While efficient nutrient management in croplands is widely recognized as one of the solutions to addressing the global challenge of supporting food security in a growing global population while safeguarding planetary health, Nutrient Expert could be an important tool to implement such efficient nutrient management digitally under smallholder production systems,” said Tek Sapkota, CIMMYT climate scientist and first author of the study.
Sapkota also argues that adoption of the Nutrient Expert tool in rice-wheat systems of India alone could provide almost 14 million tonnes (Mt) of extra grain with 1.4 Mt less nitrogen fertilizer use, and a reduction of 5.3 Mt of carbon (CO2) emissions per year over current practices.
However, technological innovation alone will not achieve these positive outcomes.
“Given the magnitude of potential implications in terms of increasing yield, reducing fertilizer consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, governments need to scale-out Nutrient Expert-based fertilizer management through proper policy and institutional arrangements, especially for making efficient use of the nearly 200 million Soil Health Cards that were issued to farmers as part of the Soil Health mission of the Government of India,” said ML Jat, CIMMYT principal scientist and co-author of the study.
The Government of Ethiopia has consistently prioritized agriculture and sees it as a core component of the country’s growth. However, despite considerable efforts to improve productivity, poor management of soil health and fertility has been an ongoing constraint. This is mainly due to a lack of comprehensive site-and context-specific soil health and fertility management recommendations and dissemination approaches targeted to specific needs.
The government envisions a balanced soil health and fertility system that helps farmers cultivate and maintain high-quality and fertile soils through the promotion of appropriate soil-management techniques, provision of required inputs, and facilitation of appropriate enablers, including knowledge and finance.
So far, a plethora of different research-for-development activities have been carried out in support of this effort, including the introduction of tools which provide location-specific fertilizer recommendations. For example, researchers on the Taking Maize Agronomy to Scale in Africa (TAMASA) project, led by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), have created locally calibrated versions of Nutrient Expert® (NE) — a tool for generating fertilizer recommendations — for maize farmers in Ethiopia, Nigeria and Tanzania.
Nutrient Expert® is only one of the many fertilizer recommendation tools which have been developed in recent years covering different levels of applicability and accuracy across spatial scales and users, including smallholder farmers, extension agents and national researchers. However, in order to make efficient use of all the resources available in Ethiopia, there is a need to systematically evaluate the merits of each tool for different scales and use cases. To jump start this process, researchers from the TAMASA project commissioned an assessment of the tools and frameworks that have been developed, adapted and promoted in the country, and how they compare with one another for different use-cases. Seven tools were assessed, including Nutrient Expert®, the Ethiopian Soil Information System (EthioSIS) and RiceAdvice.
For each of these, the research team asked determined how the tool is currently being implemented — for example, as an app or as a generic set of steps for recommendation generation — and its data requirements, how robust the estimates are, how complicated the interface is, how easy it is to use, the conditions under which it performs well, and the spatial scale at which it works best.
Farmer Gudeye Leta harvests his local variety maize in Dalecho village, Gudeya Bila district, Ethiopia. (Photo: Peter Lowe/CIMMYT)
Combining efforts and information
The results of this initial assessment indicate that the type of main user and the scale at which decisions are made varied from tool to tool. In addition, most of the tools considered have interactive interfaces and several — including Nutrient Expert® and RiceAdvice — have IT based platforms to automate the optimization of fertilizer recommendations and/or analyze profit. However, the source codes for all the IT based platforms and tools are inaccessible to end-users. This means that if further evaluation and improvements are to be made, there should be a means of collaborating with developers to share the back-end information, such as site-specific response curves and source codes.
Because most of the tools take different approaches to making fertilizer application site-specific, each of them renders unique strengths and trade-offs. For example, Nutrient Expert® may be considered strong in its approach of downscaling regionally calibrated responses to field level recommendations based on a few site-specific responses from farmers. By contrast, its calibration requires intensive data from nutrient omission trials and advice provision is time consuming.
Overall, the use of all the Site-Specific Decision-Support Tools (SSDST) has resulted in improved grain yields compared to when farmers use traditional practices, and this is consistent across all crops. On average, use of Nutrient Expert® improved maize, rice and wheat yields by 5.9%, 8.1% and 4.9%, respectively. Similarly, the use of RiceAdvice resulted in a 21.8% yield advantage.
The assessment shows that some of the tools are useful because of their applicability at local level by development agents, while others are good because of the data used to develop and validate them. However, in order to benefit the agricultural system in Ethiopia from the perspective of reliable fertilizer-use advisory, there is a need to develop a platform that combines the merits of all available tools. To achieve this, it has been suggested that the institutions who developed the individual tools join forces to combine efforts and information, including background data and source codes for IT based tools.
While the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted efforts to convene discussions around this work, CIMMYT has and will continue to play an active advocacy role in supporting collaborative efforts to inform evidence-based reforms to fertilizer recommendations and other agronomic advice in Ethiopia and the wider region. CIMMYT is currently undertaking a more rigorous evaluation of these tools and frameworks as a follow up on the initial stocktaking activity.
A digital transformation is changing the face of international research for development and agri-food systems worldwide. This was the key takeaway from the 4th annual CGIAR Big Data in Agriculture Convention held virtually last month.
“In many countries, farmers are using data to learn about market trends and weather predictions,” said Martin Kropff, director general of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), in a video address to convention participants. “But many still do not have access to everything that big data offers, and that is where CIMMYT and partners come in.”
As a member of CGIAR, CIMMYT is committed to ensuring that farmers around the world get access to data-driven solutions and information, while at the same time ensuring that the data generated by farmers, researchers and others is used ethically.
According to CGIAR experts and partner organizations, there are four key areas with the potential to transform agriculture in the next 10 years: data, artificial intelligence (AI), digital services and sector intelligence.
Key interventions will involve enabling open data and responsible data use, developing responsible AI, enabling and validating bundled digital services for food systems, and building trust in technology and big data — many of which CIMMYT has been working on already.
Harnessing data and data analytics
Led by CIMMYT, the CGIAR Excellence in Breeding (EiB) team have been developing the Enterprise Breeding System (EBS) — a single data management software solution for global breeding programs. The software aims to provide a solution to manage data across the entire breeding data workflow — from experiment creation to analytics — all in a single user-friendly dashboard.
CIMMYT and partners have also made significant breakthroughs in crop modelling to better understand crop performance and yield gaps, optimize planting dates and irrigation systems, and improve predictions of pest outbreaks. The Community of Practice (CoP) on Crop Modeling, a CGIAR initiative led by CIMMYT Crop Physiologist Matthew Reynolds, aims to foster collaboration and improve the collection of open access, easy-to-use data available for crop modelling.
The CIMMYT-led Community of Practice (CoP) on Socio-Economic Data continues to work at the forefront of making messy socio-economic data interoperable to address urgent and pressing global development issues in agri-food systems. Data interoperability, one of the foundational components of the FAIR data standards supported by CGIAR, addresses the ability of systems and services that create, exchange and consume data to have clear, shared expectations for its content, context and meaning. In the wake of COVID-19, the world witnessed the need for better data interoperability to understand what is happening in global food systems, and the CoP actively supports that process.
The MARPLE team carries out rapid analysis using the diagnostic kit in Ethiopia. (Photo: JIC)
Improving data use and supporting digital transformation
In Ethiopia, the MARPLE (Mobile And Real-time PLant disEase) diagnostic kit — developed by CIMMYT, the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR) and the John Innes Centre (JIC) — has helped researchers, local governments and farmers to rapidly detect diseases like wheat rust in the field. The suitcase-sized kit cuts down the time it takes to detect this disease from months to just 48 hours.
In collaboration with research and meteorological organizations including Wageningen University and the European Space Agency (ESA), CIMMYT researchers have also been developing practical applications for satellite-sourced weather data. Crop scientists have been using this data to analyze maize and wheat cropping systems on a larger scale and create more precise crop models to predict the tolerance of crop varieties to stresses like drought and heatwaves. The aim is to share the climate and weather data available on an open access, user-friendly database.
Through the AgriFoodTrust platform — a new testing and learning platform for digital trust and transparency technologies – CIMMYT researchers have been experimenting with technologies like blockchain to tackle issues such as food safety, traceability, sustainability, and adulterated and counterfeit fertilizers and seeds. Findings will be used to build capacity on all aspects of the technologies and their application to ensure this they are inclusive and usable.
In Mexico, CIMMYT and partners have developed an application which offers tailored recommendations to help individual farmers deal with crop production challenges sustainably. The AgroTutor app offers farmers free information on historic yield potential, local benchmarks, recommended agricultural practices, commodity price forecasting and more.
Stepping up to the challenge
As the world becomes increasingly digital, harnessing the full potential of digital technologies is a huge area of opportunity for the agricultural research for development community, but one that is currently lacking clear leadership. As a global organization already working on global problems, it’s time for the CGIAR network to step up to the challenge. Carrying a legacy of agronomic research, agricultural extension, and research into adoption of technologies and innovations, CGIAR has an opportunity to become a leader in the digital transformation of agriculture.
Currently, the CGIAR System is coming together as One CGIAR. This transformation process is a dynamic reformulation of CGIAR’s partnerships, knowledge, assets, and global presence, aiming for greater integration and impact in the face of the interdependent challenges facing today’s world.
“One CGIAR’s role in supporting digitalization is both to improve research driven by data and data analytics, but also to foster the digitalization of agriculture in low and lower-middle income countries,” said CIMMYT Economist Gideon Kruseman at a session on Exploring CGIAR Digital Strategy at last month’s Big Data convention.
“One CGIAR — with its neutral stance and its focus on global public goods — can act as an honest broker between different stakeholders in the digital ecosystem.”
Cover photo: A researcher demonstrates the use of the AgroTutor app on a mobile phone in Mexico. (Photo: Francisco Alarcón/CIMMYT)
Andrea Gardeazábal has many titles — Monitor, Evaluation and Learning Manager, ICT for Agriculture — but the core of what she does is knowledge management. She merges monitoring, evaluation, accountability and learning (MEAL) with information communication technologies (ICT) to transform data into something meaningful.
A political scientist by training, Gardeazábal knows the power of data and statistics. As she began working on ICT-for-development projects in the field, she observed a lack of understanding of ICT and how the development sector could take advantage of these tools.
“I knew this was progressing very fast; that this was the future. Everyone was talking about ICT and the future with the internet of things, and social media was just getting started,” she said. So she asked herself, how could the development sector take advantage of these new technologies?
Gardeazábal was working on projects bringing computers to rural areas in Colombia, which did not have internet connection or electricity. The problem could not be solved simply with a machine. She wanted to understand how to use ICT for development in a meaningful way. This triggered an interest in MEAL, to understand how ICT benefits the development sector, or does not, and to reintegrate that information into project design and impact.
After working in ICT for civil participation, education and microfinance, she joined CIMMYT with the mission to understand ICT for agriculture. Now she merges ICT tools with MEAL, leading the design, development and operation of systems for data collection, data cleaning, data analysis and data visualization with the Integrated Development program’s projects in Colombia, Guatemala and Mexico.
Ensuring intended results
Monitoring, learning, accountability and evaluation is crucial to ensure CIMMYT delivers on its objectives. Monitoring means ensuring that operations in the field are happening as planned. Rather than waiting until the end of the project when the donor asks for a report, Gardeazábal’s team monitors operations in the field on a quarterly or yearly basis. The team, both in the field and at headquarters, uses this data to check that the project is achieving what was intended and make interventions or adjustments if necessary.
Evaluation looks at project results and evidence. The team collects evidence for every single data point that they have, and then evaluates that evidence for impact and results in the field. This data is not only related to yield increase, but includes sustainable production, capacity development, and adequate technology adaptation and adoption processes.
Accountability is transparency with funders, so that everyone involved in a project is accountable for the processes, decisions and impact. CIMMYT is able to show progress through a transparent relationship with funders.
Learning happens after the team collects information, produces results evaluations, and understands what was done well and where the process had to be redirected. This information can then inform design of new projects or project phases. “We use the data and analysis of each project to redesign or modify our plans for the next project or even what kinds of projects we want to conduct,” Gardeazábal said.
Andrea Gardeazábal merges ICT tools with monitoring, evaluation, accountability and learning to improve project design. (Photo: Francisco Alarcón/CIMMYT)
What ICT can offer
In the past, a MEAL team would collect data from a representative sample at the start of the project, then go back to the office and analyze that data. At the end of the project, the team would complete the same exercise, to see the difference from what they gathered at the beginning.
With ICT tools, researchers are able to gather and analyze robust data more quickly and can communicate efficiently with the beneficiaries of a project throughout its course. Artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms can help in understanding large sets of data so that this information can strengthen and streamline the MEAL process and project impact.
“We don’t need to wait until the end of the project for the results in the field or to have a sense of what the farmers are saying and achieving. We have a lot of tools, from the ICT side, that help make monitoring and evaluation more efficient,” Gardeazábal explained.
An international award recognized some of these ICT tools earlier this year. Gardeazábal formed part of the winning team with members from the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) working on groundbreaking data systems and tools that help over 150,000 farmers in Mexico.
The team tracked over 500 variables over different farming plots and analyzed them with geographic, weather and market data to help identify the best management practices for each plot. This information — including historic yield potential, local benchmarks, windows of opportunity, recommended agricultural practices and commodity price forecasting — is available to farmers through an app called AgroTutor (Android, iOS).
The importance of an enabling environment
However, Gardeazábal cautions against the idea that technology on its own is going to end poverty or increase food security.
“ICT is a vehicle for innovation in agriculture. Just having an app in the field is not enough to generate the change that we are actually looking for. You need an enabling environment, a network, engagement of the farmers and the buy-in of scientists to take advantage of ICT tools.”
From drones and satellite imagery to artificial intelligence, ICT tools can help CIMMYT carry out its mission by streamlining the data gathering and analytics processes.
However, this work is not done in isolation from the environment surrounding it. CIMMYT does not only work on increasing yields, but also manages resources and local networks in efficient ways. Teams must monitor data on air quality, water use and efficient information flows, analyze this data, and then return to the field with recommendations for the most sustainable production within integrated agri-food systems.
The AgriFoodTrust platform is gaining traction in its quest to bring inclusive and usable trust and transparency technologies to the agri-food sector according to platform co-founder and International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) Economist Gideon Kruseman.
Since its launch in late February, researchers from the platform have been experimenting with technologies like blockchain to tackle issues such as food safety, traceability, sustainability, and adulterated and counterfeit fertilizers and seeds.
Experts from one of the platform’s leading partners, The New Fork, recently teamed up with HarvestPlus and El-Kanis and Partners to investigate solutions to the problem of counterfeit biofortified seeds in Nigeria. They will work together on a public open blockchain to verify biofortified seeds, so that farmers know that the seeds they are buying are authentic. Building on the concept published in one of the Community of Practice on Socio-economic Data reports, the team formulated a project to pilot the idea.
The project is a finalist in the INSPIRE challenge, a CGIAR initiative to leverage the global food security expertise of CGIAR with expert industry partners to link digital technologies to impact in developing economies.
Finalists in the challenge will come together to pitch their projects during a session at the CGIAR Big Data in Agriculture Convention, a free virtual event taking place Oct 21 – 23. Registration for the convention is still open.
The convention will also bring together experts from the AgriFoodTrust platform to discuss transparency, accountability and sustainability in food systems using digital technologies like blockchain in a pre-recorded session on October 21 at 12:15 UTC. The session will provide an introduction to the platform and its philosophy, as well as contributions from platform stakeholders and partners such as The New Fork, GIZ, the organizing committee of Strike Two, AgUnity, the Carbon Drawn Initiative, Bluenumber, Scantrust and blockchain-for-good enthusiasts like Chris Addison and Eloise Stancioff.
Key stakeholders, interested researchers and organizations will meet virtually in a pre-convention event to discuss how to accelerate the use of digital trust and transparency technologies through the sharing of knowledge and capacity development. Participation in this event requires registration.
Experimental harvest of orange maize biofortified with provitamin A in Zambia. (Photo: CIMMYT)
Building a more transparent food sector though blockchain
Blockchain is a decentralized, digital ledger for keeping records. Digital information, or blocks, is stored in a public database, or chain, and shared with users. These blocks can be accessed by users in real time, and any alterations made to this information can be seen by users. The aim is to reduce risk, eliminate fraud and bring transparency to digital assets.
The AgriFoodTrust platform teams up researchers from CGIAR centers with academia, private sector agri-food companies, tech start-ups and development practitioners to experiment with blockchain and related trust technologies in the agri-food sector. The group is also testing different business models and partnerships with a mission to create a reliable knowledge base and share their findings.
Findings on the new platform will be used to build capacity on all aspects of the technologies and their application to ensure they are inclusive and usable.
Researchers hope that solutions like QR codes — a type of matrix barcode that can be scanned by smartphones — can be used to tackle challenges like preventing the sale of counterfeit seeds and adulterated fertilizer to farmers. Other uses include ensuring food traceability and sustainability, and monitoring and improving the implementation of performance of international agreements related to agriculture.
The technology could even be applied to prevent farmers from burning crop residues — a major cause of air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions in India — by offering credits or tokens to farmers who do not engage in such practices, said Kruseman.
Much like in high-end coffee products, where customers willingly pay more for a guarantee of high quality, tokenization and digital trust technologies could allow customers of wheat flour products in India to donate extra for a certification that no crop residues were burned by the farmer.
The burning of crop residue, or stubble, across millions of hectares of cropland between planting seasons is a visible contributor to air pollution in both rural and urban areas of India. (Photo: Dakshinamurthy Vedachalam/CIMMYT)
By 2050, farmers will need to grow enough food to feed 10 billion people, using less land and fewer resources. Their job will be made even more difficult thanks to the challenges of climate change. Achieving a more inclusive, resilient and sustainable food system is needed now more than ever. It is hoped that digital trust technologies can help us respond, manage or avert crises in the future.
For more information on the INSPIRE challenge and the CGIAR Big Data in Agriculture Convention and how to attend this free virtual event, visit the event website.
A researcher demonstrates the use of the AgroTutor app on a mobile phone in Mexico. (Photo: Francisco Alarcón/CIMMYT)
While technology and data analysis have revolutionized farming in high-income countries, farmers in low-income nations have often been left out. New tools developed by CGIAR centers are narrowing the digital divide for smallholder farmers. These tools are increasingly gaining international notice beyond the field of agriculture, as a recent international award attests.
The 2020 Innovative Applications in Analytics Award (IAAA) was awarded to the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). Their tools, which help farmers to increase productivity, use more sustainable practices and access markets, topped bids from international technology companies and universities with projects applied to various fields.
“The award from this collaboration highlights the strengths of bringing together our research centers under One CGIAR,” said Daniel Jiménez, an Alliance scientist who was part of the winning team. “It shows that we can collaborate and compete at the highest level when it comes to applying science to global challenges.”
CIMMYT, CIAT and the IIASA won with their ‘Integrated Analytics for Sustainable Agriculture in Latin America’ projects. Finalists included projects focused on a wide range of analytics tools used in pricing, optimizing gas transmission, taxi guidance and management of hospital discharges.
A farmer in Mexico uses the AgroTutor application in the field. (Photo: Francisco Alarcón/CIMMYT)
“The IAAA award emphasizes novelty and creativity in analytics applications along with real-world impact,” said Pallav Chhaochhria, Director of Equities Trading at Citigroup and co-chair of the IAAA selection committee, during the virtual award ceremony.
The winning submission recognizes groundbreaking data systems and tools by publicly funded researches and field technicians who advise more than 150,000 farmers who participate in MasAgro, CIMMYT’s bilateral collaboration project with Mexico for sustainable maize and wheat production.
The multi-disciplinary team developed a system to track over 500 variables during the growing cycle at each plot monitored. These variables are subsequently analyzed in combination with geographic, weather and market data obtained from open sources of information. Data analysts and researchers mine these databases to find correlations or patterns that help identify limiting factors and the best management practices for each plot.
The resulting analytics feed an application called AgroTutor — available on Android and iOS — which offers free information to farmers, including historic yield potential, local benchmarks, windows of opportunity, recommended agricultural practices and commodity price forecasting.
“Although sophisticated data analyses have been used in agriculture before, small and medium-sized farmers have seldom benefited from a combination of systems and tools that offer predictive and prescriptive site-specific analytics,” said Andrea Gardeazabal, Information and Communication Technology for Agriculture, Monitoring & Evaluation Manager for CIMMYT’s Integrated Development program. “MasAgro and AgroTutor have proven that resource-constrained farmers can benefit from high-end innovative analyses.”
A new testing and learning platform for digital trust and transparency technologies — such as blockchain — in agri-food systems was launched at the Strike Two Summit in late February.
AgriFoodTrust debuted at the summit which brought together key agri-food system players to discuss how blockchain and related technologies can contribute to food safety, quality and sustainability, said Gideon Kruseman, an economist with the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), who co-founded the platform.
“Blockchain is often associated with the digital security that led to cryptocurrencies. However, growing research is providing evidence on its unique potential to bring greater efficiency, transparency and traceability to the exchange of value and information in the agriculture sector,” said Kruseman.
“Many of the wicked problems and seemingly insuperable challenges facing dynamic, complex agri-food system value chains, especially in low and middle-income countries, boil down to a lack of trust, transparency and reliable governance structures,” said the researcher who also leads the Socio-Economic Data Community of Practice of the CGIAR Platform for Big Data inAgriculture.
Future Food panelist speak at the Strike Two Summit in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. (Photo: The New Fork)
A blockchain is a ledger that is almost impossible to forge. It can be described as a data structure that holds transactional records and ensures security, transparency and decentralization. Technology may be at the foundation of the solutions, but technology is the easy part; solving the softer side has proven to be a seemingly insuperable challenge over the past decades, Kruseman explained.
Digital trust and transparency technologies can be used to improve governance structures and limit corruption in agri-food systems in low and middle income countries, said Marieke de Ruyter de Wildt, co-founder of AgriFoodTrust.
“This new generation of decentralized technologies is, in essence, improving governance structures. People often think it is about technology, but it’s not. It is about people and how we organize things.”
“These technologies are neutral, immutable and censorship resistant. You can mimic this if you think about rules without a ruler. Just imagine what opportunities arise when a system is incorruptible,” said de Ruyter de Wildt.
It is hoped, accessible via QR codes, for example, that the technology can be used to tackle challenges, such as preventing the sale of counterfeit seeds to smallholder farmers, ensuring the nutritional value of biofortified crop varieties and promoting the uptake of sustainable agricultural principles whilst improving the implementation and monitoring of international agreements related to agriculture.
“This is where the platform comes in as a knowledge base. The AgriFoodTrust platform sees researchers from CGIAR Centers and academia, such as Wageningen University, experiment with these technologies on top of other solutions, business models and partnerships to determine what works, how, when and for whom, in order to share that information,” Kruseman added.
Findings on the new platform will be used to build capacity on all aspects of the technologies and their application to ensure this technology is inclusive and usable.
Along with Kruseman, AgriFoodTrust co-founders include digital agriculture experts de Ruyter de Wildt, the Founder and CEO of The New Fork, and Chris Addison, Senior Coordinator of Data for Agriculture at CTA. Seed funding for the platform has been raised through CTA, the CGIAR Platform for Big Data in Agriculture and the CGIAR Programs on MAIZE and WHEAT.
“AgriFoodTrust sets out to accelerate understanding about these technologies and fundamentally make food systems more integer and resilient,” explained de Ruyter de Wildt.
By 2050, farmers will need to grow enough diverse and nutritious food to feed 10 billion people on less land using less resources while faced with the challenges of a changing climate. This has led researchers to push for agricultural technologies that engender more inclusive, sustainable food systems. It is hoped that increased trust and transparency technologies can help overcome counterproductive incentives, poor governance structures, prevailing institutional arrangements and market failures.
An early warning system set to deliver wheat disease predictions directly to farmers’ phones is being piloted in Bangladesh and Nepal by interdisciplinary researchers.
Experts in crop disease, meteorology and computer science are crunching data from multiple countries to formulate models that anticipate the spread of the wheat rust and blast diseases in order to warn farmers of likely outbreaks, providing time for pre-emptive measures, said Dave Hodson, a principal scientist with the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) coordinating the pilot project.
Around 50,000 smallholder farmers are expected to receive improved disease warnings and appropriate management advisories through the one-year proof-of-concept project, as part of the UK Aid-funded Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARRCC) program.
Early action is critical to prevent crop diseases becoming endemic. The speed at which wind-dispersed fungal wheat diseases are spreading through Asia poses a constant threat to sustainable wheat production of the 130 million tons produced in the region each year.
“Wheat rust and blast are caused by fungal pathogens, and like many fungi, they spread from plant to plant — and field to field — in tiny particles called spores,” said Hodson. “Disease strain mutations can overcome resistant varieties, leaving farmers few choices but to rely on expensive and environmentally-damaging fungicides to prevent crop loss.”
“The early warning system combines climate data and epidemiology models to predict how spores will spread through the air and identifies environmental conditions where healthy crops are at risk of infection. This allows for more targeted and optimal use of fungicides.”
The system was first developed in Ethiopia. It uses weather information from the Met Office, the UK’s national meteorological service, along with field and mobile phone surveillance data and disease spread modeling from the University of Cambridge, to construct and deploy a near real-time early warning system.
CIMMYT consultant Madan Bhatta conducts field surveys using Open Data Kit (ODK) in the mid-hills of Nepal. (Photo: D. Hodson/CIMMYT)
Initial efforts focused on adapting the wheat stripe and stem rust model from Ethiopia to Bangladesh and Nepal have been successful, with field surveillance data appearing to align with the weather-driven disease early warnings, but further analysis is ongoing, said Hodson.
“In the current wheat season we are in the process of comparing our disease forecasting models with on-the-ground survey results in both countries,” the wheat expert said.
“Next season, after getting validation from national partners, we will pilot getting our predictions to farmers through text-based messaging systems.”
CIMMYT’s strong partnerships with governmental extension systems and farmer associations across South Asia are being utilized to develop efficient pathways to get disease predictions to farmers, said Tim Krupnik, a CIMMYT Senior Scientist based in Bangladesh.
“Partnerships are essential. Working with our colleagues, we can validate and test the deployment of model-derived advisories in real-world extension settings,” Krupnik said. “The forecasting and early warning systems are designed to reduce unnecessary fungicide use, advising it only in the case where outbreaks are expected.”
Local partners are also key for data collection to support and develop future epidemiological modelling, the development of advisory graphics and the dissemination of information, he explained.
The second stage of the project concerns the adaptation of the framework and protocols for wheat blast disease to improve existing wheat blast early warning systems already pioneered in Bangladesh.
Example of weekly stripe rust spore deposition forecast in Nepal. Darker colors represent higher predicted number of spores deposited. The early warning system combines weather information from the Met Office with field and mobile phone surveillance data and disease spread modeling from the University of Cambridge. (Graphic: University of Cambridge and Met Office)
Strong scientific partnership champions diversity to achieve common goals
The meteorological-driven wheat disease warning system is an example of effective international scientific partnership contributing to the UN Sustainable Development Goals, said Sarah Millington, a scientific manager at Atmospheric Dispersion and Air Quality Group with the Met Office.
“Diverse expertise from the Met Office, the University of Cambridge and CIMMYT shows how combined fundamental research in epidemiology and meteorology modelling with field-based disease observation can produce a system that boosts smallholder farmers’ resilience to major agricultural challenges,” she said.
The atmospheric dispersion modeling was originally developed in response to the Chernobyl disaster and since then has evolved to be able to model the dispersion and deposition of a range of particles and gases, including biological particles such as wheat rust spores.
“The framework together with the underpinning technologies are transferable to forecast fungal disease in other regions and can be readily adapted for other wind-dispersed pests and disease of major agricultural crops,” said Christopher Gilligan, head of the Epidemiology and Modelling Group at the University of Cambridge.
Fungal wheat diseases are an increasing threat to farmer livelihoods in Asia
Wheat leaf rust can be spotted on a wheat plant of a highly susceptible variety in Nepal. The symptoms of wheat rust are dusty, reddish-orange to reddish-brown fruiting bodies that appear on the leaf surface. These lesions produce numerous spores, which are spread by wind and splashing water. (Photo: D Hodson/CIMMYT)
While there has been a history of wheat rust disease epidemics in South Asia, new emerging strains and changes to climate pose an increased threat to farmers’ livelihoods. The pathogens that cause rust diseases are continually evolving and changing over time, making them difficult to control.
Stripe rust threatens farmers in Afghanistan, India, Nepal and Pakistan, typically in two out of five seasons, with an estimated 43 million hectares of wheat vulnerable. When weather conditions are conducive and susceptible cultivars are grown, farmers can experience losses exceeding 70%.
Populations of stem rust are building at alarming rates and previously unseen scales in neighboring regions. Stem rust spores can spread across regions on the wind; this also amplifies the threat of incursion into South Asia and the ARRCC program’s target countries, underscoring the very real risk that the disease could reemerge within the subcontinent.
The devastating wheat blast disease, originating in the Americas, suddenly appeared in Bangladesh in 2016, causing wheat crop losses as high as 30% on a large area, and continues to threaten South Asia’s vast wheat lands.
In both cases, quick international responses through CIMMYT, the CGIAR research program on Wheat (WHEAT) and the Borlaug Global Rust Initiative have been able to monitor and characterize the diseases and, especially, to develop and deploy resistant wheat varieties.
The UK aid-funded ARRCC program is led by the Met Office and the World Bank and aims to strengthen weather forecasting systems across Asia. The program is delivering new technologies and innovative approaches to help vulnerable communities use weather warnings and forecasts to better prepare for climate-related shocks.
The early warning system uses data gathered from the online Rust Tracker tool, with additional fieldwork support from the Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia (CSISA), funded by USAID and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, both coordinated by CIMMYT.
In crop research fields, it is now a common sight to see drones or other high-tech sensing tools collecting high-resolution data on a wide range of traits — from simple measurement of canopy temperature to complex 3D reconstruction of photosynthetic canopies.
This technological approach to collecting precise plant trait information, known as phenotyping, is becoming ubiquitous, but according to experts at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and other research institutions, breeders can profit much more from these tools, when used judiciously.
In a new article in the journal Plant Science, CIMMYT researchers outline the different ways in which phenotyping can assist breeding — from large-scale screening to detailed physiological characterization of key traits — and why this methodology is crucial for crop improvement.
“While having been the subject of debate in the past, extra investment for phenotyping is becoming more accepted to capitalize on recent developments in crop genomics and prediction models,” explain the authors.
Their review considers different contexts for phenotyping, including breeding, exploration of genetic resources, parent building and translations research to deliver other new breeding resources, and how these different categories of phenotyping apply to each. Some of the same tools and rules of thumb apply equally well to phenotyping for genetic analysis of complex traits and gene discovery.
The authors make the case for breeders to invest in phenotyping, particularly in light of the imperative to breed crops for warmer and harsher climates. However, wide scale adoption of sophisticated phenotyping methods will only occur if new techniques add efficiency and effectiveness.
In this sense, “breeder-friendly” phenotyping should complement existing breeding approaches by cost-effectively increasing throughput during segregant selection and adding new sources of validated complex traits to crossing blocks. With this in mind, stringent criteria need to be applied before new traits or phenotyping protocols are incorporated into mainstream breeding pipelines.
Following the spread of fall armyworm, crowdsourced data is powering a web-based application to help farmers in Bangladesh stay ahead of the crop pest.
The Fall Armyworm Monitor collects population, incidence and severity data, and guides pest management decisions. The web tool relies on information gathered by farmers using smartphones in their fields.
It was developed by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) in cooperation with Bangladesh’s Department of Agricultural Extension, through the Fighting Back Against Fall Armyworm project, supported by USAID and Michigan State University.
When a foreign caterpillar first munched through Muhammad Hasan Ali’s maize field during the winter 2018-2019 season, he was stumped as to what it was or how to manage it. All he knew was his harvest and the investment he made in growing his crop was at risk.
“I’d never seen this type of insect in previous seasons, but I soon learned from government extension workers it was the fall armyworm,” explained Hasan Ali, a farmer from rural Chuadanga, in western Bangladesh. When poorly managed, fall armyworm can significantly reduce maize productivity.
Hasan Ali asked to join a training program, where he learned how to identify, monitor and control the spread of the invasive and voracious crop pest. The training, mainly tailored to extension staff, was facilitated by CIMMYT and Bangladesh’s Department of Agricultural Extension.
Participants of the Fighting Back Against Fall Armyworm trainings learning to collect field data through the Fall Armyworm Monitor web app in a farmer’s field in Chauadanga, Bangladesh. (Photo: Uttam Kumar/CIMMYT)
Participants of the Fighting Back Against Fall Armyworm trainings learning to collect field data through the Fall Armyworm Monitor web app in a farmer’s field in Chauadanga, Bangladesh. (Photo: Uttam Kumar/CIMMYT)
Participants and instructors of the Fighting Back Against Fall Armyworm trainings participate in a field session to work with the Fall Armyworm Monitor web app in Chauadanga, Bangladesh. (Photo: Uttam Kumar/CIMMYT)
Equipped to fight the pest
Extension staff and farmers gained valuable insights into different methods of control, including management of small and large patches of insect attack.
“I learned to identify fall armyworms in my field — and how to use hand picking methods and appropriate application of insecticide for control,” said Hasan Ali.
Farmers also learned how to set up pheromone traps to monitor pest populations and to use smartphones to make data-driven integrated pest management decisions using a cloud-based monitoring platform.
Crowdsourced information on the movement of fall armyworm is essential for effectively monitoring its spread and is a pivotal step in its management, said CIMMYT Senior Scientist and Systems Agronomist Timothy Krupnik.
“Farmers in top maize growing regions are working with extension officers to monitor traps and report findings weekly by entering data into smartphones,” Krupnik said.
Pheromones are natural compounds emitted by female moths to attract males for mating. Synthetic compounds that mimic natural fall armyworm pheromones are placed in traps to lure and capture male moths, after which extension agents count moths, enter, and upload data in their districts. At the time of writing, 649 staff from the Department of Agricultural Extension are reporting weekly moth count and pest damage data.
“Pest management practices are best when they are data-driven,” Krupnik explained. “Having information on the geographical location, plant growth stage and severity of infestation provides an informed base from which appropriate decisions can be made, with the ultimate goal of reducing pesticide misuse.”
“We are also excited as the data are open-access, and we are working to share them with FAO and other partners crucial in fall armyworm response,” he added.
The Fall Armyworm Monitor gives moth count and other data at the division, district and upazilla levels. (Photo: CIMMYT)
Data for better decisions
“The website hosts real-time data and depicts them graphically and in maps depending on user’s preferences. This information — which was core to the training extension agents participated in — is key for integrated pest management strategies,” explained Mutasim Billah, CIMMYT Data Specialist and the lead developer of the application.
“The department of extension services have employed 253 officers to visit fields with handheld smart devices in 25 districts to upload data,” said Billah. “The online tool stores data entries in its server and calculates the aggregated value for division, district and sub-district level on a weekly basis, and shows the estimated values through charts and in tabular format.”
The Fall Armyworm Monitor has become an essential tool for government officials to aid farmers in managing the pest which so far has been successful, said Bijoy Krishna Halder, additional Deputy Director of Plant Protection with the Bangladesh government.
“CIMMYT’s web portal is a very efficient way to collect data from the field. Anyone can access the page to see the overall condition of infestation across the country,”said Krishna Halder. “I check the portal every week about the fall armyworm condition and now it shows that the infestation is low with the overall field conditions good.”
The pest native to the Americas has become a global menace as it has spread attacking crops through Africa, and Asia, threatening the food and economic security of smallholder farmers.
The Fall Armyworm Monitor was created as part of the new Fighting Back Against Fall Armyworm in Bangladesh project is aligned with Michigan State University’s Borlaug Higher Education for Agricultural Research and Development (BHEARD) program, which supports the long-term training of agricultural researchers in USAID’s Feed the Future priority countries.
A new testing and learning platform for digital trust and transparency technologies — such as blockchain — in 
