A farm worker carrying her baby on her back weeds maize in Tanzania. (Photo: Peter Lowe/CIMMYT)
A new study shows that youth can face higher land rental prices than older farmers in Tanzania and other parts of sub-Saharan Africa.
“The rising importance of land rental markets reflects increasing rural population densities in many parts of the continent,” said Jordan Chamberlin, an agricultural economist with the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and study co-author.
“Evidence that the effective costs of rental market participation are relatively higher for younger farmers suggests that the markets are not yet mature,” Chamberlin explained. “This appears to stem partly from weak contract enforcement norms that make land rental arrangements more sensitive to trust and reputation. That puts younger farmers, who have not yet built up such social capital stocks, at a disadvantage.”
Young people today are already inheriting less land than previous generations and waiting longer to obtain the land they do inherit, according to the authors, who observe as one result a rising dependence on labor markets.
“Wage income’s importance will continue to rise in rural areas of sub-Saharan Africa, but policymakers should also foster equitable access to land for young agricultural entrepreneurs,” said Chamberlin.
The authors recommend measures such as tenant-landlord “matchmaking” programs, arrangements that encourage land sales by older farmers to younger farmers, and clarifying and simplifying regulations and procedures for title conversions and land purchases.
“Local governments may also share information about land rental rates for different areas, to provide a reference for rental negotiations,” added Chamberlain.
MARPLE team members Dave Hodson and Diane Saunders (second and third from left) stand for a photograph after receiving the International Impact award. With them is Malcolm Skingle, director of Academic Liaison at GlaxoSmithKline (first from left) and Melanie Welham, executive chair of BBSRC. (Photo: BBSRC)
The research team behind the MARPLE (Mobile And Real-time PLant disEase) diagnostic kit won the International Impact category of the Innovator of the Year 2019 Awards, sponsored by the United Kingdom’s Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC).
The team — Diane Saunders of the John Innes Centre (JIC), Dave Hodson of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and Tadessa Daba of the Ethiopian Institute for Agricultural Research (EIAR) — was presented with the award at an event at the London Science Museum on May 15, 2019. In the audience were leading figures from the worlds of investment, industry, government, charity and academia, including the U.K.’s Minister of State for Universities, Science, Research and Innovation, Chris Skidmore.
The BBSRC Innovator of the Year awards, now in their 11th year, recognize and support individuals or teams who have taken discoveries in bioscience and translated them to deliver impact. Reflecting the breadth of research that BBSRC supports, they are awarded in four categories of impact: commercial, societal, international and early career. Daba, Hodson and Saunders were among a select group of 12 finalists competing for the four prestigious awards. In addition to international recognition, they received £10,000 (about $13,000).
“I am delighted that this work has been recognized,” Hodson said. “Wheat rusts are a global threat to agriculture and to the livelihoods of farmers in developing countries such as Ethiopia. MARPLE diagnostics puts state-of-the-art, rapid diagnostic results in the hands of those best placed to respond: researchers on the ground, local government and farmers.”
On-the-ground diagnostics
The MARPLE diagnostic kit is the first operational system in the world using nanopore sequence technology for rapid diagnostics and surveillance of complex fungal pathogens in the field.
In its initial work in Ethiopia, the suitcase-sized field test kit has positioned the country — one of the region’s top wheat producers — as a world leader in pathogen diagnostics and forecasting. Generating results within 48 hours of field sampling, the kit represents a revolution in plant disease diagnostics. Its use will have far-reaching implications for how plant health threats are identified and tracked into the future.
MARPLE is designed to run at a field site without constant electricity and with the varying temperatures of the field.
“This means we can truly take the lab to the field,” explained Saunders. “Perhaps more importantly though, it means that smaller, less-resourced labs can drive their own research without having to rely on a handful of large, well-resourced labs and sophisticated expertise in different countries.”
In a recent interview with JIC, EIAR Director Tadessa Daba said, “we want to see this project being used on the ground, to show farmers and the nation this technology works.”
The MARPLE team uses the diagnostic kit in Ethiopia. (Photo: JIC)
Development of the MARPLE diagnostic kit was funded by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) and the CGIAR Platform for Big Data in Agriculture’s Inspire Challenge. Continued support is also provided by the BBSRC’s Excellence with Impact Award to the John Innes Centre and the Delivering Genetic Gain in Wheat project, led by Cornell University and funded by the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID) and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
In an attempt to curb the spread of this disease, policymakers in the region are considering a “wheat holiday” policy: banning wheat cultivation for a few years in targeted areas. Since wheat blast’s Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype triticum (MoT) fungus can survive on seeds for up to 22 months, the idea is to replace wheat with other crops, temporarily, to cause the spores to die. In India, which shares a border of more than 4,000 km with Bangladesh, the West Bengal state government has already instituted a two-year ban on wheat cultivation in two districts, as well as all border areas. In Bangladesh, the government is implementing the policy indirectly by discouraging wheat cultivation in the severely blast affected districts.
CIMMYT researchers recently published in two ex-ante studies to identify economically feasible alternative crops in Bangladesh and the bordering Indian state of West Bengal.
Alternative crops
The first step to ensuring that a ban does not threaten the food security and livelihoods of smallholder farmers, the authors assert, is to supply farmers with economically feasible alternative crops.
In Bangladesh, the authors examined the economic feasibility of seven crops as an alternative to wheat, first in the entire country, then in 42 districts vulnerable to blast, and finally in ten districts affected by wheat blast. Considering the cost of production and revenue per hectare, the study ruled out boro rice, chickpeas and potatoes as feasible alternatives to wheat due to their negative net return. In contrast, they found that cultivation of maize, lentils, onions, and garlic could be profitable.
The study in India looked at ten crops grown under similar conditions as wheat in the state of West Bengal, examining the economic viability of each. The authors conclude that growing maize, lentils, legumes such as chickpeas and urad bean, rapeseed, mustard and potatoes in place of wheat appears to be profitable, although they warn that more rigorous research and data are needed to confirm and support this transition.
Selecting alternative crops is no easy task. Crops offered to farmers to replace wheat must be appropriate for the agroecological zone and should not require additional investments for irrigation, inputs or storage facilities. Also, the extra production of labor-intensive and export-oriented crops, such as maize in India and potatoes in Bangladesh, may add costs or require new markets for export.
There is also the added worry that the MoT fungus could survive on one of these alternative crops, thus completely negating any benefit of the “wheat holiday.” The authors point out that the fungus has been reported to survive on maize.
A short-term solution?
The grain in this blast-blighted wheat head has been turned to chaff. (Photo: CKnight/DGGW/ Cornell University)
In both studies, the authors discourage a “wheat holiday” policy as a holistic solution. However, they leave room for governments to pursue it on an interim and short-term basis.
In the case of Bangladesh, CIMMYT agricultural economist and lead author Khondoker Mottaleb asserts that a “wheat holiday” would increase the country’s reliance on imports, especially in the face of rapidly increasing wheat demand and urbanization. A policy that results in complete dependence on wheat imports, he and his co-authors point out, may not be politically attractive or feasible. Also, the policy would be logistically challenging to implement. Finally, since the disease can potentially survive on other host plants, such as weeds and maize, it may not even work in the long run.
In the interim, the government of Bangladesh may still need to rely on the “wheat holiday” policy in the severely blast-affected districts. In these areas, they should encourage farmers to cultivate lentils, onions and garlic. In addition, in the short term, the government should make generic fungicides widely available at affordable prices and provide an early warning system as well as adequate information to help farmers effectively combat the disease and minimize its consequences.
In the case of West Bengal, India, similar implications apply, although the authors conclude that the “wheat holiday” policy could only work if Bangladesh has the same policy in its blast-affected border districts, which would involve potentially difficult and costly inter-country collaboration, coordination and logistics.
Actions for long-term success
The CIMMYT researchers urge the governments of India and Bangladesh, their counterparts in the region and international stakeholders to pursue long-term solutions, including developing a convenient diagnostic tool for wheat blast surveillance and a platform for open data and science to combat the fungus.
A promising development is the blast-resistant (and zinc-enriched) wheat variety BARI Gom 33 which the Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI) released in 2017 with support from CIMMYT. However, it will take at least three to five years before it will be available to farmers throughout Bangladesh. The authors urged international donor agencies to speed up the multiplication process of this variety.
CIMMYT scientists in both studies close with an urgent plea for international financial and technical support for collaborative research on disease epidemiology and forecasting, and the development and dissemination of new wheat blast-tolerant and resistant varieties and complementary management practices — crucial steps to ensuring food security for more than a billion people in South Asia.
Wheat blast impacts
First officially reported in Brazil in 1985, where it eventually spread to 3 million hectares in South America and became the primary reason for limited wheat production in the region, wheat blast moved to Bangladesh in 2016. There it affected nearly 15,000 hectares of land in eight districts, reducing yield by as much as 51 percent in the affected fields.
Blast is devilish: directly striking the wheat ear, it can shrivel and deform the grain in less than a week from the first symptoms, leaving farmers no time to act. There are no widely available resistant varieties, and fungicides are expensive and provide only a partial defense. The disease, caused by the fungus Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype triticum (MoT), can spread through infected seeds as well as by spores that can travel long distances in the air.
South Asia has a long tradition of wheat consumption, especially in northwest India and Pakistan, and demand has been increasing rapidly across South Asia. It is the second major staple in Bangladesh and India and the principal staple food in Pakistan. Research indicates 17 percent of wheat area in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan — representing nearly 7 million hectares – is vulnerable to the disease, threatening the food security of more than a billion people.
A baker makes the traditional wheat flatbread known as “naan roti” in Dinajpur, Bangladesh. (Photo: S. Mojumder/Drik/CIMMYT)
The developing world’s appetite for wheat is growing swiftly, driven in part by rising incomes, rapid urbanization and the expansion of families where both spouses work outside the house, according to a recent seminar by two international experts.
“Our research is picking up significant shifts in demand among cereals, including the increasing popularity of wheat in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa,” said Khondoker Mottaleb, socioeconomist for the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), speaking at a seminar at the center on December 11, 2018.
In preliminary results of a study using household data from six countries in Asia and five in sub-Saharan Africa, Mottaleb and his associate, Fazleen Binti Abdul Fatah, senior lecturer at the University of Technology MARA, Malaysia, found that the households of both regions will eat more wheat by 2030, mainly in place of rice in Asia and of maize and other coarse grain cereals in Africa.
Speedy urbanization, higher incomes, population growth, and allied lifestyle changes are all driving this trend, said Fazleen. “Many urban women are working, so families are transitioning to bread and other convenient wheat-based foods and processed foods.”
A typical case according to Mottaleb is that of Bangladesh, a country whose population at 160 million is half that of the United States but with a geographical area equivalent to the US state of Ohio. The per capita GDP of Bangladesh grew from US$360 to US$1,516 during 2000-2017, and more than 35 percent of the country’s inhabitants now live in cities.
Meeting demand for wheat in Bangladesh
A 2018 paper by Mottaleb and fellow CIMMYT researchers shows that wheat consumption will increase substantially in Bangladesh by 2030 and the country needs to expand production or increase imports to meet the growing demand.
“The country purchases nearly 70 percent of its wheat at an annual cost near or exceeding US$1 billion, depending on yearly prices,” said Mottaleb. “Wheat prices are relatively low and wheat markets have been relatively stable, but if yields of a major wheat exporting country suddenly fall, say, from pest attacks or a drought, wheat markets would destabilize and prices would spike, as occurred in 2008 and 2011.”
In a 2018 study, the United Kingdom’s Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) cautioned that declining wheat cropping area worldwide and significant stockpiling by China — which holds nearly half the world’s wheat stocks but does not export any grain — were masking serious risk in global wheat markets.
A recent report ranked Bangladesh as the world’s fifth largest wheat importer. Since 2014-15 domestic wheat consumption there has increased by 57 percent from 4.9 million metric ton to 7.7 million metric tons. Last December, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations forecast Bangladesh wheat import requirements of 6 million tons for this year — 34 percent above the previous five-year average following steady increases since 2012-13.
“The prevailing narrative has wealthier and more urban consumers shifting from basic foods to higher value foods, and this is doubtless occurring,” said Fazleen, “but our work shows a more nuanced scenario. In the traditional rice consuming economies in Asia, rural households are also eating more wheat, due to rapid dietary transformations.”
For Bangladesh, the researchers propose growing additional wheat on fallow and less-intensively-cropped land, as well as expanding the use of newer, high-yielding and climate-smart wheat varieties.
“Our work clearly shows the rising popularity of wheat across Asia and Africa,” said Mottaleb. “We urge international development agencies and policymakers to enhance wheat production in suitable areas, ensuring food security for the burgeoning number of people who prefer wheat and reducing dependence on risky wheat grain markets.”
“Crop modelling has the potential to significantly contribute to global food and nutrition security,” claim the authors of a recently published paper on the role of modelling in international crop research. “Millions of farmers, and the societies that depend on their production, are relying on us to step up to the plate.”
Among other uses, crop modelling allows for foresight analysis of agricultural systems under global change scenarios and the prediction of potential consequences of food system shocks. New technologies and conceptual breakthroughs have also allowed modelling to contribute to a better understanding of crop performance and yield gaps, improved predictions of pest outbreaks, more efficient irrigation systems and the optimization of planting dates.
While renewed interest in the topic has led in recent years to the development of collaborative initiatives such as the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) and the CGIAR Platform for Big Data in Agriculture, further investment is needed in order to improve the collection of open access, easy-to-use data available for crop modelling purposes. Strong impact on a global scale will require a wide range of stakeholders – from academia to the private sector – to contribute to the development of large, multi-location datasets.
Resource-poor farmers worldwide stand to gain from developments in the field of crop modelling. (Photo: H. De Groote/CIMMYT)
In “Role of Modelling in International Crop Research: Overview and Some Case Studies,” CGIAR researchers outline the history and basic principles of crop modelling, and describe major theoretical advances and their practical applications by international crop research centers. They also highlight the importance of agri-food systems, which they view as key to meeting global development challenges. “The renewed focus on the systems-level has created significant opportunities for modelers to participant in enhancing the impact of science on developments. However, a coherent approach based on principles of transparency, cooperation and innovation is essential to achieving this.”
The authors call for closer interdisciplinary collaboration to better serve the crop research and development communities through the provision of model-based recommendations which could range from government-level policy development to direct crop management support for resource-poor farmers.
A farm landscape in Ethiopia. (Photo: Apollo Habtamu/ILRI)
Despite her unassuming nature, the literary character Miss Marple solves murder mysteries with her keen sense of perception and attention to detail. But there’s another sleuth that goes by the same name. MARPLE (Mobile And Real-time PLant disEase) is a portable testing lab which could help speed-up the identification of devastating wheat rust diseases in Africa.
Rust diseases are one of the greatest threats to wheat production around the world. Over the last decade, more aggressive variants that are adapted to warmer temperatures have emerged. By quickly being able to identify the strain of rust disease, researchers and farmers can figure out the best course of action before it is too late.
The Saunders lab of the John Innes Centre created MARPLE. In collaboration with the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR) and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), researchers are testing the mobile diagnostic kit in Holeta, central Ethiopia.
“These new pathogen diagnostic technologies … offer the potential to revolutionize the speed at which new wheat rust strains can be identified,” says Dave Hodson, a CIMMYT rust pathologist in Ethiopia. “This is critical information that can be incorporated into early warning systems and result in more effective control of disease outbreaks in farmers’ fields.”
Two experimental lines of provitamin A-enriched orange maize, Zambia. Photo: CIMMYT.
A new study from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and Wageningen University examines the preferences and needs of maize processors and consumers in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). According to the authors, the demand for maize, a staple crop in SSA, will triple by 2050 due to rapid population growth. At the same time, the effects of climate change, such as erratic rainfall and drought, threaten agricultural productivity and the ability to meet this growing demand, while persistently high malnutrition pose additional challenges to the region. The authors suggest six objectives to enhance maize breeding programs for better food security and nutrition in SSA.
First, they recommend breeding programs enhance the nutrient density of maize through biofortification to help reduce deficiencies in vitamin A, zinc and protein. Since wheat is difficult to grow in most of SSA and expensive to import, they also suggest that programs breed to enhance the suitability of maize for making bread and snacks. The authors recommend breeding to improve maize for use as ‘green maize’ – the first crop to reach the marketplace after the dry season. If suitable green maize varieties are available, the hunger gap between seasons could be significantly reduced.
The authors’ fourth suggestion is breeding to improve characteristics that enhance the efficiency of local processing. For example, soft maize is preferred for traditional dry and wet milling, but hard maize is usually preferred for pounding or refining processes in the home. Lastly, the authors suggest breeding to reduce waste by maximizing useful product yield and minimizing nutrient losses, and breeding to reduce anti-nutrient concentrations in grains. For example, phytate or phytic acid is a naturally occurring compound found in cereals that binds with minerals and prevents their absorption. Transgenic and gene editing approaches may offer viable options for reducing phytate production.
The authors emphasize that none of these opportunities to enhance breeding strategies are “magic bullet” solutions. Sustainable, diversified crop production and post-harvest management strategies will play an important role in improving nutrition, food security and livelihoods.
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This blast-infected wheat spike contains no grain, only chaff. Photo: CIMMYT files.
A spatial mapping and ex ante studyregarding the risk and potential spread in South Asia of wheat blast, a mysterious and deadly disease from the Americas that unexpectedly infected wheat in southwestern Bangladesh in 2016, identified 7 million hectares of wheat cropping areas in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan whose agro-climatic conditions resemble those of the Bangladesh outbreak zone.
The study shows that, under a conservative scenario of 5-10% wheat blast production damage in a single season in those areas, wheat grain losses would amount to from 0.89 to 1.77 million tons worth, between $180 and $350 million. This would strain the region’s already fragile food security and forcing up wheat imports and prices, according to Khondoker Abdul Mottaleb, first author of the study.
“Climate change and related changes in weather patterns, together with continuing globalization, expose wheat crops to increased risks from pathogens that are sometimes transported over long distances,” said Mottaleb.
Foresight research at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) has focused on new diseases and pests that have emerged or spread in recent decades, threatening global food safety and security. For wheat these include Ug99 and other new strains of stem rust, the movement of stripe rust into new areas, and the sudden appearance in Bangladesh of wheat blast, which had previously been limited to South America.
“As early as 2011, CIMMYT researchers had warned that wheat blast could spread to new areas, including South Asia,” said Kai Sonder, who manages CIMMYT’s geographic information systems lab and was a co-author on the current study, referring to a 2011 notepublished by the American Pathological Society. “Now that forecast has come true.”
CIMMYT has played a pivotal role in global efforts to study and control blast, with funding from the Australian Center for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR), the CGIAR Research Program on Wheat (WHEAT), the Indian Council of Agriculture Research (ICAR), and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).
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Figure: Maize-producing counties in the USA that are vulnerable to Tar Spot Complex (TSC) of maize, developed based on climate analogue model analysis procedure matching historic climatic data of 13 counties where TSC has been detected.
A new study shows that nearly 12 million hectares of the maize-growing USA, approximately 33 percent of the entire maize-growing area of the country, might be vulnerable to a disease called Tar Spot Complex (TSC).
Native to Latin America, one of the two major fungal pathogens involved in TSC of maize was detected for the first time in the United States in 2015. In Latin America, TSC can cause up to 50 percent losses in maize yields, but the impact of one fungal pathogen alone on maize yields unknown. There is a hypothetical likelihood that the second fungal pathogen involved in TSC, could migrate to the US. If this happens, the devastating TSC disease in the US could cause significant economic damages.
Even a one percent loss in maize production caused by the disease in this area could lead to a reduction in maize production of 1.5 million metric tons of grain, or approximately $231.6 million in losses. Such production losses would not only affect the $51.5 billion US maize industry, but also the food security in a number of low-income countries that are heavily dependent on maize imports from the US.
The emergence and spread of new crop diseases or new variants of already established diseases around the globe over the last decades have generated serious threats for food safety and security. Therefore, the improvement of crop disease resistance has become one of the key focus topics of research at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT).
The intent of this study is to raise public awareness regarding potential TSC outbreaks and to develop strategies and action plans for such scenario.
This study was published by an interdisciplinary team of CIMMYT scientists in the journal of Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change regarding the potential threats of TSC in the US and its global consequences. Within this article, ex-ante impact assessment techniques were combined with climate analogue analysis to identify the maize growing regions that may be vulnerable to potential TSC outbreaks in the USA.
Gideon Kruseman, CIMMYT ex-ante and foresight specialist presents household level bio-economic models at workshop. CIMMYT/Khondoker Mottaleb
Gideon Kruseman is CIMMYT’s ex-ante and foresight specialist.
The potential impact of climate change on agriculture and the complexity of possible adaptation responses require the application of new research methods and tools to develop adequate strategies. At a recent five-day training workshop titled “Crop and Bio-economic Modeling under Uncertain Climate,” scientists applied crop and bio-economic models to estimate biophysical and economic impacts of climate variability and change.
Crop system modeling is used to simulate yields for specific weather patterns, nutrient input levels and bio-economic household modeling involves using quantitative economic methodology to incorporate biological, chemical and/or physical processes to analyze the impact of technology development, policy interventions and such exogenous shocks as extreme weather events on the decision-making processes of smallholder farmers and related development indicators. Events influence results in two ways: the probability of occurrence will shape decision-making and actual occurrence will shape realized results.
During the training, which was organized and hosted by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), which took place in November in Kenya’s capital, Nairobi, scientists examined how technology development and policy or development interventions may influence farm household decisions on resource allocation and cropping patterns.
The training was beneficial due to its “holistic approach to solve smallholder agricultural production problem using decision support tools,” said Theodrose Sisay from the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research.
Attendees learned in practical terms how shifting weather patterns will change farmer perception of the probability of occurrence of extreme events, which may influence subsequent cropping patterns and technology choices. Cropping system models shed light on the effects of different weather patterns on crop yields under varying management practices. Bio-economic household modeling then places those results in the context of smallholder livelihood strategies.
Bio-economic household model results demonstrated the conditions under which cropping patterns are likely to change as a result of resource constraints and household preferences. The analysis illustrated how cropping patterns may shift as a result of climate change:
Before climate change.After climate change.
Figure: comparison of model results of climate change scenarios
This was the third and last of a series of training workshops offered to same group of trainees since 2014. Not only did the 16 participants learn how to apply crop and bio-economic models allowing them to estimate biophysical and economic impacts of climate variability and change, but they also learned how to assess different adaptation options.
The tools they worked with included the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT), and a bio-economic household model using Gtree with the general algebraic modeling system (GAMS). The training involved plenary discussions, group work, and individual hands-on exercises.
The training program served as a refresher course on GAMS, said Janvier Egah, a socio-economist from Benin.
“Over time, I had forgotten everything,” he added. “With this training, I remembered the notions of the past course and learned new concepts such as integrating the costs of climate change in bio-economic models. These models interest me particularly and I want to write and submit proposals to apply them.”
The participants came with their own input data for the DSSAT cropping system model and learned how to calibrate the model. The participants developed climate change scenarios, ran simulations and interpreted the simulation outputs using graphical and statistical interfaces.
Workshop participants. Photo credit: CIMMYT
The participants, who have worked together in these workshops on three different occasions, indicated a strong willingness to continue collaborating after the conclusion of the project. They took steps to develop a concept note for a collaborative research grant with a major component related to the use of crop and bio-economic models.
The workshop had a stronger component related to the economic analysis of household decision-making than previous training sessions, and trainees used simulation models based on mathematical programming techniques.
At the conclusion of the workshop, participants expressed interest in pursuing further analysis of this type in the future as a complement to crop growth modelling.
A scientist examines wheat grain. CIMMYT/Nathan Russell
Gideon Kruseman is CIMMYT’s ex-ante and foresight specialist.
Over the next few decades, projections indicate global population will grow from more than 7 billion to more than 9 billion people by 2050. A large proportion of that world population will be living in low- and middle-income countries in urban environments – often huge — cities.
In India, the country with the largest rural population, for instance, the percentage of urban population is expected to increase from 37 percent in 2011 to 56 percent by 2050. Globally it will grow from 55 percent in 2011 to 70 percent in 2050. The trends we anticipate in India are comparable to Africa as a whole where urban population is projected to increase from less than 40 percent to around 55 percent, although there are differences between countries and regions.
Meeting the sustainable development goals (SDGs) established in 2015 by the United Nations and the global community will be challenging. The 17 goals with 169 targets aim to solve problems related to climate change, hunger, education, gender equality, sanitation, jobs, justice and shared peace by 2030.
In particular, SDG 2, which aspires to eliminate hunger, and SDG 3, which aims to establish good health and well-being, will be challenging even if we concentrate only on climatic, environmental and biophysical constraints. If we also take into account all the implications of urbanization and economic growth on diets and dietary change a new dimension of complexity becomes apparent.
Whether model calculations are based on current consumption patterns and trends, healthy diets or a variety of ecologicalsustainability criteria, maize and wheat will play a significant dietary role. Currently, these two staple crops feed two-thirds of the world population and will continue to be the main supply of energy in human diets in all scenarios.
However, scenarios for maize and wheat will not ensure decrease in quantitative and qualitative malnutrition unless we act upon projected future demands now. Diets, dietary change and their effects on health and nutritional status form complex interactions with socio-economic and environmental drivers.
In the future, diets will inevitably change as they have in previous decades. Basic commodities in food consumed in urban areas require different traits than food consumed in rural areas where the chain between production and consumption is shorter. The reason for this is that in rural areas in low and middle income countries staple grains are milled and processed locally, while in urban areas people tend to eat industrialized processed or pre-processed food.
In urban areas in Africa and South Asia wheat-based products are starting to replace traditional staples such as maize and rice to some extent. Moreover, research reveals that in urban centers people tend to eat energy dense food, which can help prevent quantitative malnutrition in terms of calorie intake, but does not ensure a healthy diet. Healthy eating requires a wide range of nutrients that traditionally are found in diverse foods. When people opt for less diversity and more convenience, this requires nutrient-dense as well as calorie-dense food. A significant trend that points to convenience food is the increased consumption levels of snacks and fast food, in low- and middle-income countries.
Maize-based snacks are important components of urban diets. Moreover, maize is a key ingredient found in convenience food made by the food industry in the form of starch and syrup. Ensuring that maize and wheat can meet nutritional demands in less diverse diets requires the introduction of new traits into the varieties comparable to the ongoing efforts of maize and wheatbiofortification at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT).
The development of nutrient-dense varieties takes time since they must also incorporate traits that address environmental conditions, climate change and resistance to pests and diseases as well as feature favorable post-harvest characteristics such as milling and processing quality.
Crucial to this process are the genetic resources that allow the traits to be combined in the breeding done at CIMMYT.
How do we do this? Billions of seeds, expertly and carefully conserved for humankind, are housed in our seed bank. They are freely available to breeders and other researchers around the world who may use them to uncover solutions to some of the challenges that face humanity in the future. Any one seed could help secure the food of our future.
While the potentially desirable traits hidden in the seeds in the seed bank are very valuable, there are costs involved in maintaining this diversity. Diversity is important for finding traits that will allow maize and wheat to be more nutritious than they are already today and so aid in meeting the demands of the future. Today, everyone can be part of this future by joining the “save a seed movement.”
From 6-12 May 2009 an interdisciplinary team of experts from CIMMYT, IITA, University of Georgia, USA, and IFPRI met in Nairobi, Kenya to develop a model and run possible future scenarios on drought tolerant (DT) maize impacts in Africa, a strategic activity of the Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa (DTMA) project. The specialists involved are experts in areas such as breeding, socioeconomics, and geographic information systems (GIS).
The CIMMYT team comprised Marianne Bänziger (director, Global Maize Program), Wilfred Mwangi (DTMA project leader), Roberto La Rovere (impact assessment specialist), Girma Tesfahun (socioeconomist), and Brian Chiputwa (research associate). They were joined by Tahirou Abdoulaye (economist, IITA), Genti Kostandini (assistant professor, University of Georgia), and Zhe Guo (GIS specialist, IFPRI). Kostandini is a collaborator on DTMA ex-ante assessment, while Guo was representing IFPRI senior research fellow Stanley Wood. Former CIMMYT staff John Dixon (director, ITAU) and Dave Hodson (head, GIS laboratory) have also contributed to the efforts.
The ex-ante assessment work on drought tolerant maize is based on the premise that yield variance reduction is as important or even more important for farmers than just yield gains. The research team thus focused on economic returns and benefits for rural people—such as helping them escape poverty or reducing the risk of yield losses—by their investing in DT maize. Another study topic focused on where DT maize development could achieve the greatest impact. Finally, the team explored scenarios for potential added value for African farmers through adoption of DT maize, benefits for consumers, and changes in poverty impact indicators.
