Institutionalizing Monitoring of Crop Variety Adoption using Genotyping (IMAGE) is a five-year program with the aim of establishing, institutionalizing, and scaling routine monitoring of improved variety adoption and turnover using genotyping.
It is led by country teams in Ethiopia, Nigeria and Tanzania, supported by Context Global Development and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Reliable monitoring: IMAGE will assess the varieties that farmers are growing of four staple crops within the three target countries and marking the rate of improved variety adoption through recurring surveys and comparative analysis.
Vision for change: IMAGE supports inclusive agricultural transformation by providing insights and evidence for seed sector actors to enhance government agency capacity, improve stakeholder coordination, and lead to better resource allocation for varietal development and commercialization.
Project objectives:
Enable a national leadership mandate to monitor crop varieties and adoption
Build a network of technical experts and service providers to provide personalized advisory support
Establish best practices that enable routine monitoring and produce credible results
Form a sustainable funding mechanism based on use cases with government and stakeholder buy-in
Advocate for institutional capacity for reliable monitoring programs
IMAGE provides the opportunity to leverage past monitoring pilots and for cross-country learnings while advancing genetic reference libraries, establishing protocol adoption, and building towards institutionalization over five years. This is done through six objectives:
Comparable estimates of varietal adoption and turnover will be generated and made available to stakeholders
Standardization of best-practices and supporting technologies
Establishment of sustainable business cases
Pilot study results on varietal identity preservation in seed value chains for each country-crop combination
Institutionalized system of varietal monitoring for long-term, sustainable national partner implementation
Generated data used by seed sector stakeholders to make key decisions
Nilupa Gunaratna (right), statistician at the International Nutrition Foundation, helps a farmer and her daughter to fill in a survey form on quality protein maize (QPM) as part of the QPM Development (QPMD) project in Karatu, Tanzania. (Photo: CIMMYT)
Recently, I published the technical description of Ontology-Agnostic Metadata Schema (OIMS) in the journal Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, as part of a special issue on “Agile Data-Oriented Research Tools to Support Smallholder Farm System Transformation.”
CGIAR and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) are dedicated to providing research data information products (RDIP) in open access, following the FAIR data standards. FAIR stands for findable, accessible, interoperable and reusable. Organizations dedicated to open data have made massive progress in making data findable and accessible. A clear example is a free, open-access repository of research studies developed by CIMMYT scientists. Article 4.1.c.i. of the CGIAR data policy states that “Relevant data assets (e.g. datasets) and metadata shall be interoperable and fit for reuse.”
This is easier said than done. There are well-established standards for descriptive metadata such as the Dublin Core and the derived standard used widely across the CGIAR, aptly called CGcore, used in CIMMYT’s Dataverse research data repository. However, these standards are lacking in many domains for describing the actual content of data sets.
At best, idiosyncratic data dictionaries are developed for specific datasets, projects and sometimes even programs. Idiosyncratic data dictionaries help make data interoperable but, in many cases, require a lot of preprocessing before scientists can actually reuse the data. Having a standard for data dictionaries would be a huge leap forward, but is not likely to happen anytime soon.
The next best thing is to standardize the way that you describe data dictionaries. This was recognized by the community of practice on socioeconomic data of the CGIAR Platform for Big data in Agriculture. Over the past few years, efforts led by CIMMYT set to remedy that lack of a standard, resulting in the flexible, extensible, machine-readable, human-intelligible and ontology-agnostic metadata schema (OIMS).
The paper in the journal Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems describes a lightweight, flexible, and extensible metadata schema. It is designed to succinctly describe data collected for international agricultural research for development, facilitating interoperability. The schema is also meant to make it easier to store, retrieve and link different datasets stored in a data lake.
Agricultural research data comes to the surface
The paper discusses a need for this type of schema. Typically, agricultural research data comes in different formats and from different sources. For example, we can have structured surveys, semi-structured surveys, mobile phone records and satellite data. In the case of socioeconomic data, it can be particularly “messy.” To facilitate interoperability, we need to find methods to describe these datasets, which are machine readable — or actionable.
There have been other attempts to provide a standardized way to make data interoperable. Past approaches have been comprehensive but cumbersome. That could be the reason why they are typically only used by larger-scale projects. OIMS provides a framework that can be used by all data managers and scientists to enhance the interoperability for research data to ensure the data can be reused with much more ease.
The paper provides a detailed description of OIMS, including: the metadata schema, which describes the data dictionary; and the self-describing metadata, which describes the fields in the metadata. The paper then demonstrates the utility of this schema using a small segment of a household survey.
This paper presents an internally consistent approach to providing metadata for data files when standards are missing. It is flexible and extensible, so it will not be obsolete before it is implemented at scale. The approach is based on the concept of data lakes where data is stored as is. To ensure that data lakes do not become swamps, metadata is indispensable. The OIMS metadata schema approach can help to standardize the description of metadata and thus can be considered the fishing gear to extract data from the data lake.
As part of the on-going work started by the community of practice on socioeconomic data of the CGIAR Platform for Big Data in Agriculture, implementation of the OIMS metadata schema approach on datasets that can create indicators highlighted in the 100Q approach with linkages to the nascent socioeconomic ontology SEOnt is envisaged. This will provide datasets with enhanced interoperability.
With more and more datasets using the OIMS approach in the near future, it will become possible to turn what is currently a socioeconomic data swamp into a data lake. This will provide timely actionable information to support agri-food systems transformation — helping smallholders make a living while staying within planetary boundaries.
Implementing OIMS in practice requires data managers and scientists that collect the data to actively engage in providing the relevant metadata. As mentioned before, some of the metadata can be gleaned from the software solutions the scientists use already. As these are structured metadata, they can be extracted by machines. Often it does require curation by the scientist involved, especially when the software solution does not provide key information that the scientist has at hand but is not documented in a machine-readable way.
As wheat blast continues to infect crops in countries around the world, researchers are seeking ways to stop its spread. The disease — caused by the Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype Triticum — can dramatically reduce crop yields, and hinder food and economic security in the regions in which it has taken hold.
Researchers from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and other international institutions looked into the potential for wheat blast to spread, and surveys existing tactics used to combat it. According to them, a combination of methods — including using and promoting resistant varieties, using fungicides, and deploying strategic agricultural practices — has the best chance to stem the disease.
The disease was originally identified in Brazil in 1985. Since then, it has spread to several other countries in South America, including Argentina, Bolivia and Paraguay. During the 1990s, wheat blast impacted as many as three million hectares in the region. It continues to pose a threat.
Through international grain trade, wheat blast was introduced to Bangladesh in 2016. The disease has impacted around 15,000 hectares of land in the country and reduced average yields by as much as 51% in infected fields.
Because the fungus’ spores can travel on the wind, it could spread to neighboring countries, such as China, India, Nepal and Pakistan — countries in which wheat provides food and jobs for billions of people. The disease can also spread to other locales via international trade, as was the case in Bangladesh.
“The disease, in the first three decades, was spreading slowly, but in the last four or five years its pace has picked up and made two intercontinental jumps,” said Pawan Singh, CIMMYT’s head of wheat pathology, and one of the authors of the recent paper.
In the last four decades, wheat blast has appeared in South America, Asia an Africa. (Video: Alfonso Cortés/CIMMYT)
The good fight
Infected seeds are the most likely vector when it comes to the disease spreading over long distances, like onto other continents. As such, one of the key wheat blast mitigation strategies is in the hands of the world’s governments. The paper recommends quarantining potentially infected grain and seeds before they enter a new jurisdiction.
Governments can also create wheat “holidays”, which functionally ban cultivation of wheat in farms near regions where the disease has taken hold. Ideally, this would keep infectable crops out of the reach of wheat blast’s airborne and wind-flung spores. In 2017, India banned wheat cultivation within five kilometers of Bangladesh’s border, for instance. The paper also recommends that other crops — such as legumes and oilseed — that cannot be infected by the wheat blast pathogen be grown in these areas instead, to protect the farmers’ livelihoods.
Other tactics involve partnerships between researchers and agricultural workers. For instance, early warning systems for wheat blast prediction have been developed and are being implemented in Bangladesh and Brazil. Using weather data, these systems alert farmers when the conditions are ideal for a wheat blast outbreak.
Researchers are also hunting for wheat varieties that are resistant to the disease. Currently, no varieties are fully immune, but a few do show promise and can partially resist the ailment depending upon the disease pressure. Many of these resistant varieties have the CIMMYT genotype Milan in their pedigree.
“But the resistance is still limited. It is still quite narrow, basically one single gene,” Xinyao He, one of the co-authors of the paper said, adding that identifying new resistant genes and incorporating them into breeding programs could help reduce wheat blast’s impact.
Wheat spikes damaged by wheat blast. (Photo: Xinyao He/CIMMYT)
The more the merrier
Other methods outlined in the paper directly involve farmers. However, some of these might be more economically or practically feasible than others, particularly for small-scale farmers in developing countries. Wheat blast thrives in warm, humid climates, so farmers can adjust their planting date so the wheat flowers when the weather is drier and cooler. This method is relatively easy and low-cost.
The research also recommends that farmers rotate crops, alternating between wheat and other plants wheat blast cannot infect, so the disease will not carry over from one year to the next. Farmers should also destroy or remove crop residues, which may contain wheat blast spores. Adding various minerals to the soil, such as silicon, magnesium, and calcium, can also help the plants fend off the fungus. Another option is induced resistance, applying chemicals to the plants such as jasmonic acid and ethylene that trigger its natural resistance, much like a vaccine, Singh said.
Currently, fungicide use, including the treatment of seeds with the compounds, is common practice to protect crops from wheat blast. While this has proven to be somewhat effective, it adds additional costs which can be hard for small-scale farmers to swallow. Furthermore, the pathogen evolves to survive these fungicides. As the fungus changes, it can also gain the ability to overcome resistant crop varieties. The paper notes that rotating fungicides or developing new ones — as well as identifying and deploying more resistant genes within the wheat — can help address this issue.
However, combining some of these efforts in tandem could have a marked benefit in the fight against wheat blast. For instance, according to Singh, using resistant wheat varieties, fungicides, and quarantine measures together could be a time-, labor-, and cost-effective way for small-scale farmers in developing nations to safeguard their crops and livelihoods.
“Multiple approaches need to be taken to manage wheat blast,” he said.
Given the very heterogeneous conditions in smallholder agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa, there is a growing policy interest in site-specific extension advice and the use of related digital tools. However, empirical ex ante studies on the design of this type of tools are scant and little is known about their impact on site-specific extension advice.
In partnership with Oyakhilomen Oyinbo and colleagues at KU Leuven, scientists at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) have carried out research to clarify user preferences for tailored nutrient management advice and decision-support tools. The studies also evaluated the impact of targeted fertilizer recommendations enabled by such tools.
Understanding farmers’ adoption
A better understanding of farmers’ and extension agents’ preferences may help to optimize the design of digital decision-support tools.
Oyinbo and co-authors conducted a study among 792 farming households in northern Nigeria, to examine farmers’ preferences for maize intensification in the context of site-specific extension advice using digital tools.
Overall, farmers were favorably disposed to switch from general fertilizer use recommendations to targeted nutrient management recommendations for maize intensification enabled by decision-support tools. This lends credence to the inclusion of digital tools in agricultural extension. The study also showed that farmers have heterogeneous preferences for targeted fertilizer recommendations, depending on their resources, sensitivity to risk and access to services.
The authors identified two groups of farmers with different preference patterns: a first group described as “strong potential adopters of site-specific extension recommendations for more intensified maize production” and a second group as “weak potential adopters.” While the two groups of farmers are willing to accept some yield variability for a higher average yield, the trade-off is on average larger for the first group, who have more resources and are less sensitive to risk.
The author recommended that decision-support tools include information on the riskiness of expected investment returns and flexibility in switching between low- and high-risk recommendations. This design improvement will help farmers to make better informed decisions.
Community leaders talk to researchers in one of the villages in norther Nigeria which took part in the study. (Photo: Oyakhilomen Oyinbo)
Members of the survey team participate in a training session at Bayero University Kano, Nigeria. (Photo: Oyakhilomen Oyinbo)
One of the sites of nutrient omission trials, used during the development phase of the Nutrient Expert tool in Nigeria. (Photo: Oyakhilomen Oyinbo)
Using data from a discrete choice experiment, the study showed that extension agents were generally willing to accept the use of digital decision-support tools for site‐specific fertilizer recommendations. While extension agents in the sample preferred tools with a more user‐friendly interface that required less time to generate an output, the authors also found substantial preference heterogeneity for other design features. Some extension agents cared more about the outputs, such as information accuracy and level of detail, while others prioritized practical features such as the tool’s platform, language or interface.
According to the authors, accounting for such variety of preferences into the design of decision-support tools may facilitate their adoption by extension agents and, in turn, enhance their impact in farmars’ agricultural production decisions.
Interface of the Nutrient Expert mobile app, locally calibrated for maize farmers in Nigeria.
Impact of digital tools
Traditional extension systems in sub-Saharan African countries, including Nigeria, often provide general fertilizer use recommendations which do not account for the substantial variation in production conditions. Such blanket recommendations are typically accompanied by point estimates of expected agronomic responses and associated economic returns, but they do not provide any information on the variability of the expected returns associated with output price risk.
Policymakers need a better understanding of how new digital agronomy tools for tailored recommendations affect the performance of smallholder farms in developing countries.
To contribute to the nascent empirical literature on this topic, Oyinbo and colleagues evaluated the impact of a nutrient management decision-support tool for maize – Nutrient Expert — on fertilizer use, management practices, yields and net revenues. The authors also evaluated the impacts of providing information about variability in expected investment returns.
To provide rigorous evidence, the authors conducted a three-year randomized controlled trial among 792 maize-producing households in northern Nigeria. The trial included two treatment groups who are exposed to site-specific fertilizer recommendations through decision-support tools — one with and another one without additional information on variability in expected returns — and a control group who received general fertilizer use recommendations.
Overall, the use of nutrient management decision-support tools resulted in greater fertilizer investments and better grain yields compared with controls. Maize grain yield increased by 19% and net revenue increased by 14% after two years of the interventions. Fertilizer investments only increased significantly among the farmers who received additional information on the variability in expected investment returns.
The findings suggest including site-specific decision support tools into extension programming and related policy interventions has potential benefits on maize yields and food security, particularly when such tools also supply information on the distribution of expected returns to given investment recommendations.
The research-for-development community has tried different approaches to optimize fertilizer recommendations. In Nigeria, there are several tools available to generate location-specific fertilizer recommendations, including Nutrient Expert. As part of the Taking Maize Agronomy to Scale in Africa (TAMASA) project, CIMMYT has been working on locally calibrated versions of this tool for maize farmers in Ethiopia, Nigeria and Tanzania. The development was led by a project team incorporating scientists from the African Plant Nutrition Institute (APNI), CIMMYT and local development partners in each country.
Next steps
Some studies have shown that dis-adoption of seemingly profitable technologies — such as fertilizer in sub-Saharan Africa — is quite common, especially when initial returns fall short of expectations or net utility is negative, producing a disappointment effect.
In the context of emerging digital decision-support tools for well-targeted fertilizer use recommendations, it remains unclear whether farmers’ initial input use responses and the associated economic returns affect their subsequent responses — and whether the disappointment effect can be attenuated through provision of information about uncertainty in expected returns.
Using our three-year randomized controlled trial and the associated panel dataset, researchers are now working on documenting the third-year responses of farmers to site-specific agronomic advice conditional on the second-year responses. Specifically, they seek to better document whether providing farmers with information about seasonal variability in expected investment returns can reduce possible disappointment effects associated with their initial uptake of site-specific agronomic advice and, in a way, limit dis-adoption of fertilizer.
Cover photo: A farmer shows maize growing in his field, in one of the communities in northern Nigeria where research took place. (Photo: Oyakhilomen Oyinbo)
A digital transformation is changing the face of international research for development and agri-food systems worldwide. This was the key takeaway from the 4th annual CGIAR Big Data in Agriculture Convention held virtually last month.
“In many countries, farmers are using data to learn about market trends and weather predictions,” said Martin Kropff, director general of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), in a video address to convention participants. “But many still do not have access to everything that big data offers, and that is where CIMMYT and partners come in.”
As a member of CGIAR, CIMMYT is committed to ensuring that farmers around the world get access to data-driven solutions and information, while at the same time ensuring that the data generated by farmers, researchers and others is used ethically.
According to CGIAR experts and partner organizations, there are four key areas with the potential to transform agriculture in the next 10 years: data, artificial intelligence (AI), digital services and sector intelligence.
Key interventions will involve enabling open data and responsible data use, developing responsible AI, enabling and validating bundled digital services for food systems, and building trust in technology and big data — many of which CIMMYT has been working on already.
Harnessing data and data analytics
Led by CIMMYT, the CGIAR Excellence in Breeding (EiB) team have been developing the Enterprise Breeding System (EBS) — a single data management software solution for global breeding programs. The software aims to provide a solution to manage data across the entire breeding data workflow — from experiment creation to analytics — all in a single user-friendly dashboard.
CIMMYT and partners have also made significant breakthroughs in crop modelling to better understand crop performance and yield gaps, optimize planting dates and irrigation systems, and improve predictions of pest outbreaks. The Community of Practice (CoP) on Crop Modeling, a CGIAR initiative led by CIMMYT Crop Physiologist Matthew Reynolds, aims to foster collaboration and improve the collection of open access, easy-to-use data available for crop modelling.
The CIMMYT-led Community of Practice (CoP) on Socio-Economic Data continues to work at the forefront of making messy socio-economic data interoperable to address urgent and pressing global development issues in agri-food systems. Data interoperability, one of the foundational components of the FAIR data standards supported by CGIAR, addresses the ability of systems and services that create, exchange and consume data to have clear, shared expectations for its content, context and meaning. In the wake of COVID-19, the world witnessed the need for better data interoperability to understand what is happening in global food systems, and the CoP actively supports that process.
The MARPLE team carries out rapid analysis using the diagnostic kit in Ethiopia. (Photo: JIC)
Improving data use and supporting digital transformation
In Ethiopia, the MARPLE (Mobile And Real-time PLant disEase) diagnostic kit — developed by CIMMYT, the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR) and the John Innes Centre (JIC) — has helped researchers, local governments and farmers to rapidly detect diseases like wheat rust in the field. The suitcase-sized kit cuts down the time it takes to detect this disease from months to just 48 hours.
In collaboration with research and meteorological organizations including Wageningen University and the European Space Agency (ESA), CIMMYT researchers have also been developing practical applications for satellite-sourced weather data. Crop scientists have been using this data to analyze maize and wheat cropping systems on a larger scale and create more precise crop models to predict the tolerance of crop varieties to stresses like drought and heatwaves. The aim is to share the climate and weather data available on an open access, user-friendly database.
Through the AgriFoodTrust platform — a new testing and learning platform for digital trust and transparency technologies – CIMMYT researchers have been experimenting with technologies like blockchain to tackle issues such as food safety, traceability, sustainability, and adulterated and counterfeit fertilizers and seeds. Findings will be used to build capacity on all aspects of the technologies and their application to ensure this they are inclusive and usable.
In Mexico, CIMMYT and partners have developed an application which offers tailored recommendations to help individual farmers deal with crop production challenges sustainably. The AgroTutor app offers farmers free information on historic yield potential, local benchmarks, recommended agricultural practices, commodity price forecasting and more.
Stepping up to the challenge
As the world becomes increasingly digital, harnessing the full potential of digital technologies is a huge area of opportunity for the agricultural research for development community, but one that is currently lacking clear leadership. As a global organization already working on global problems, it’s time for the CGIAR network to step up to the challenge. Carrying a legacy of agronomic research, agricultural extension, and research into adoption of technologies and innovations, CGIAR has an opportunity to become a leader in the digital transformation of agriculture.
Currently, the CGIAR System is coming together as One CGIAR. This transformation process is a dynamic reformulation of CGIAR’s partnerships, knowledge, assets, and global presence, aiming for greater integration and impact in the face of the interdependent challenges facing today’s world.
“One CGIAR’s role in supporting digitalization is both to improve research driven by data and data analytics, but also to foster the digitalization of agriculture in low and lower-middle income countries,” said CIMMYT Economist Gideon Kruseman at a session on Exploring CGIAR Digital Strategy at last month’s Big Data convention.
“One CGIAR — with its neutral stance and its focus on global public goods — can act as an honest broker between different stakeholders in the digital ecosystem.”
Cover photo: A researcher demonstrates the use of the AgroTutor app on a mobile phone in Mexico. (Photo: Francisco Alarcón/CIMMYT)
The AgriFoodTrust platform is gaining traction in its quest to bring inclusive and usable trust and transparency technologies to the agri-food sector according to platform co-founder and International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) Economist Gideon Kruseman.
Since its launch in late February, researchers from the platform have been experimenting with technologies like blockchain to tackle issues such as food safety, traceability, sustainability, and adulterated and counterfeit fertilizers and seeds.
Experts from one of the platform’s leading partners, The New Fork, recently teamed up with HarvestPlus and El-Kanis and Partners to investigate solutions to the problem of counterfeit biofortified seeds in Nigeria. They will work together on a public open blockchain to verify biofortified seeds, so that farmers know that the seeds they are buying are authentic. Building on the concept published in one of the Community of Practice on Socio-economic Data reports, the team formulated a project to pilot the idea.
The project is a finalist in the INSPIRE challenge, a CGIAR initiative to leverage the global food security expertise of CGIAR with expert industry partners to link digital technologies to impact in developing economies.
Finalists in the challenge will come together to pitch their projects during a session at the CGIAR Big Data in Agriculture Convention, a free virtual event taking place Oct 21 – 23. Registration for the convention is still open.
The convention will also bring together experts from the AgriFoodTrust platform to discuss transparency, accountability and sustainability in food systems using digital technologies like blockchain in a pre-recorded session on October 21 at 12:15 UTC. The session will provide an introduction to the platform and its philosophy, as well as contributions from platform stakeholders and partners such as The New Fork, GIZ, the organizing committee of Strike Two, AgUnity, the Carbon Drawn Initiative, Bluenumber, Scantrust and blockchain-for-good enthusiasts like Chris Addison and Eloise Stancioff.
Key stakeholders, interested researchers and organizations will meet virtually in a pre-convention event to discuss how to accelerate the use of digital trust and transparency technologies through the sharing of knowledge and capacity development. Participation in this event requires registration.
Experimental harvest of orange maize biofortified with provitamin A in Zambia. (Photo: CIMMYT)
Building a more transparent food sector though blockchain
Blockchain is a decentralized, digital ledger for keeping records. Digital information, or blocks, is stored in a public database, or chain, and shared with users. These blocks can be accessed by users in real time, and any alterations made to this information can be seen by users. The aim is to reduce risk, eliminate fraud and bring transparency to digital assets.
The AgriFoodTrust platform teams up researchers from CGIAR centers with academia, private sector agri-food companies, tech start-ups and development practitioners to experiment with blockchain and related trust technologies in the agri-food sector. The group is also testing different business models and partnerships with a mission to create a reliable knowledge base and share their findings.
Findings on the new platform will be used to build capacity on all aspects of the technologies and their application to ensure they are inclusive and usable.
Researchers hope that solutions like QR codes — a type of matrix barcode that can be scanned by smartphones — can be used to tackle challenges like preventing the sale of counterfeit seeds and adulterated fertilizer to farmers. Other uses include ensuring food traceability and sustainability, and monitoring and improving the implementation of performance of international agreements related to agriculture.
The technology could even be applied to prevent farmers from burning crop residues — a major cause of air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions in India — by offering credits or tokens to farmers who do not engage in such practices, said Kruseman.
Much like in high-end coffee products, where customers willingly pay more for a guarantee of high quality, tokenization and digital trust technologies could allow customers of wheat flour products in India to donate extra for a certification that no crop residues were burned by the farmer.
The burning of crop residue, or stubble, across millions of hectares of cropland between planting seasons is a visible contributor to air pollution in both rural and urban areas of India. (Photo: Dakshinamurthy Vedachalam/CIMMYT)
By 2050, farmers will need to grow enough food to feed 10 billion people, using less land and fewer resources. Their job will be made even more difficult thanks to the challenges of climate change. Achieving a more inclusive, resilient and sustainable food system is needed now more than ever. It is hoped that digital trust technologies can help us respond, manage or avert crises in the future.
For more information on the INSPIRE challenge and the CGIAR Big Data in Agriculture Convention and how to attend this free virtual event, visit the event website.
Sub-Saharan Africa is undergoing important transformations, including climate change, population growth, urbanization and migration flows, and growth in digital technologies. What can we say about the likely development trajectories that African rural economies are on, and the implications for poor farming households? These are central questions for Jordan Chamberlin, an economist at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) in Kenya.
Chamberlin’s desk is covered with screens teeming with numbers, complex mathematical equations, lines of code and aerial views of African landscapes. He combines traditional microeconomic analysis with geospatial modelling skills to study some of the ways in which rural transformations are occurring. In this era of big data, he examines the wealth of spatial and socioeconomic datasets to explore the relationships between drivers of change and smallholder welfare, sometimes revealing surprising insights on how rural communities in Africa are evolving.
“Are commercial farms good or bad for neighboring smallholder farmers? Which households can benefit from the rapidly evolving rural land markets in Africa? What drives migration between rural areas? These are some examples of the complex but increasingly important questions that inform how we understand the evolution of agri-food systems in developing countries,” Chamberlin explains. “Fortunately, we also increasingly have access to new data that helps us explore these issues.”
In addition to household survey datasets — the bread and butter of applied social scientists — today’s researchers are also able to draw on an ever-expanding set of geospatial data that helps us to better contextualize the decisions smallholder farmers make.
He cites current work, which seeks to understand input adoption behaviors through better measurement of the biophysical and marketing contexts in which small farms operate. “Evidence suggests that low use rates of inorganic fertilizer by smallholders is due in part to poor expected returns on such investments,” he explains, “which are the result of site-specific agronomic responses, rainfall uncertainty, variation in input-output price ratios, and other factors.”
We are increasingly able to control for such factors explicitly: one of Chamberlin’s recent papers shows the importance of soil organic carbon for location-specific economic returns to fertilizer investments in Tanzania. “After all, farmers do not care about yields for yields’ sake — they make agronomic investments on the basis of how those investments affect their economic welfare.”
Better data and models may help to explain why farmers sometimes do not adopt technologies that we generally think of as profitable. A related strand of his research seeks to better model the spatial distribution of rural market prices.
Jordan Chamberlin (left) talks to a farmer in Ethiopia’s Tigray region in 2019, while conducting research on youth outmigration from rural areas. (Photo: Jordan Chamberlin)
A spatial economist’s journey on Earth
Ever since his experience as a Peace Corps volunteer in Paraguay, where he worked as a beekeeping specialist, Chamberlin knew he wanted to spend his professional life working with smallholder farmers. He wanted to better understand how rural development takes place, and how policies and investments can help rural households to improve their welfare.
In pursuit of these interests, his academic journey took him from anthropology to quantitative geography, before leading him to agricultural economics. “While my fundamental interest in rural development has not changed, the analytical tools I have preferred have evolved over the years, and my training reflects that evolution,” he says.
Along with his research interests, he has always been passionate about working with institutions within the countries where his research has focused. While working with the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in Ethiopia, he helped establish a policy-oriented GIS lab at the Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI). Years later, as part of his work with Michigan State University, he served as director of capacity building at the Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute (IAPRI), a not-for-profit Zambian research organization. He continues to serve as an external advisor on PhD committees, and considers mentorship a key part of his professional commitments.
He joined CIMMYT at the Ethiopia office in 2015 as spatial economist, part of the foresight and ex ante group of the Socioeconomics program.
As part of his research portfolio, he explores the role of new technologies, data sources and extension methods in the scaling of production technologies. Under the Taking Maize Agronomy to Scale in Africa (TAMASA) project, one area he has been working on is how we may better design location-specific agronomic advisory tools. Working with the Nutrient Expert tool, developed by the African Plant Nutrition Institute (APNI), he and his research team have conducted randomized control trials in Ethiopia and Nigeria to evaluate the impacts of such decision-support tools on farmer investments and productivity outcomes. They found that such tools appear to contribute to productivity gains, although tool design matters — for example, Nigerian farmers were more likely to take up site-specific agronomic recommendations when such information was accompanied by information about uncertainty of financial returns.
Jordan Chamberlin (center) talks to colleagues during a staff gathering in Nairobi. (Photo. Joshua Masinde/CIMMYT)
Creative rethinking
While Chamberlin’s research portfolio is diverse, one commonality is the drive to use new data and tools to better guide how development resources are allocated.
“Given the scarcity of resources available to governments and their partners, it is important to have sound empirical foundations for the allocation of these resources. Within CIMMYT, I see my role as part of a multidisciplinary team whose goal is to generate such empirical guidance,” he says.
This research also contributes to better design of agricultural development policies.
“Even though many of the research topics that my team addresses are not traditional areas of emphasis within CIMMYT’s socioeconomic work, I hope that we are demonstrating the value of broad thinking about development questions, which are of fundamental importance to one of our core constituencies: the small farmers of the region’s maize and wheat-based farming systems.”
The world population is expected to rise to almost 10 billion by 2050. To feed this number of people, we need to increase food production while using fewer resources. Biofortification, the process of fortifying staple crops with micronutrients, could help to solve this problem.
However, it is not that easy to identify biofortified seeds.
Often, the process of biofortification does not change a seed in a visible way, opening the possibilities for counterfeit products. Farmers cannot verify that the seeds they buy are as advertised. Unsurprisingly, fake seeds are a major obstacle to the adoption of biofortified crops. Similarly, in the process from farm to fork, traceability of biofortified food is equally difficult to achieve.
Picture Aisha, a smallholder farmer in Nigeria. She’s in the market for biofortified maize seeds for her farm. How does she know which seeds to pick, and how can she be sure that they are actually biofortified?
One solution is blockchain technology.
Quality protein maize looks and tastes just like any other maize, but has increased available protein that can stem or reverse protein malnutrition, particularly in children with poor diets. (Photo: Xochiquetzal Fonseca/CIMMYT)
Researchers consult smallholders to test demand for vitamin A-enriched maize in Kenya. (Photo: CIMMYT)
Natalia Palacios, CIMMYT maize nutrition quality specialist, works on breeding maize rich in beta-carotene, a provitamin that is converted to vitamin A within the human body. (Photo: CIMMYT)
What is blockchain?
Blockchain is a shared digital ledger for record keeping, where data is decentralized and allocated to users. Digital information, or blocks, is stored in a public database, or chain.
This technology platform helps in situations of lack of trust. It provides an unhackable, unchangeable and transparent record of events where users place trust in computer code and math, instead of a third party. This code writes the rules of the system and the software is peer-reviewed, so rules and data are resilient against corruption. When new data is added to the database, actors in then network verify and timestamp the data before adding it to the blockchain. After input, no one can change the information. No single entity owns or controls the database, allowing actors to trust in the system without having to trust any other actors.
While often associated with bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology has many other uses in traditional industries, including the potential to transform agri-food systems. The Community of Practice on Socio-economic Data, led by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), produced a report detailing the role blockchain can play in agri-food systems and biofortified seeds.
Blockchain for agri-food systems
Agri-food systems consist of complex networks that often mistrust each other. Blockchain technology can enhance transparency, traceability and trust. It could have a significant role to play in closing the yield gap and reducing hunger.
Many transactions done in the agri-food sector have paper records. Even when records are digital, disconnected IT systems create data silos. Blockchain enables stakeholders to control, manage and share their own data, breaking down silos.
For example, blockchain technology can help solve issues of land governance, unclear ownership and tenure by providing an accurate land registration database. It can help with compliance to standards from governments or private organizations. This technology could make financial transactions more efficient, limit corruption, and provide provenance, traceability and recall of products.
Verifying biofortified maize seeds
HarvestPlus conducted a study to understand the barriers to widespread adoption of biofortified seeds. The team interviewed 100 businesses and 250 individuals from farmers to global brands about their experiences with biofortification. Unsurprisingly, they found that a big barrier to adoption is the inability to distinguish biofortified crops from standard ones.
Therefore, it is crucial to have a system to verify biofortified seeds. HarvestPlus collaborated with The Fork to investigate solutions.
One solution is a public blockchain. The result could look like this: Aisha, our smallholder farmer in Nigeria wants to buy biofortified maize seeds for her farm. At the store, she takes a phone out of her pocket and scans a QR code on a bag to see a trustworthy account of the seeds’ journey to that bag. Satisfied with the account, she brings verified biofortified maize seeds home, improving nutrition of her family and community.
Contingent on farmers having access to smartphones, this situation could be possible. However, blockchain technology will not solve everything, and it is important we test and study these solutions while considering other challenges, such as access to technology and human behavior.
The Community of Practice on Socio-economic Data report, Blockchain for Food, gives principles of digital development of blockchain. It is crucial to understand the existing ecosystem, design for scale, build for sustainability and design the technology with the user. These are crucial points to consider when developing blockchain solutions for agri-food systems.
As the global food system is beginning to transition towards more transparency, circularity and customization, blockchain technology could play a major role in how this shift evolves. A new testing and learning platform for digital trust and transparency technologies in agri-food systems, including blockchain technology, was launched in February 2020. The platform will build capacity of the potential of this technology and ensure that it is usable and inclusive.
A new testing and learning platform for digital trust and transparency technologies — such as blockchain — in agri-food systems was launched at the Strike Two Summit in late February.
AgriFoodTrust debuted at the summit which brought together key agri-food system players to discuss how blockchain and related technologies can contribute to food safety, quality and sustainability, said Gideon Kruseman, an economist with the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), who co-founded the platform.
“Blockchain is often associated with the digital security that led to cryptocurrencies. However, growing research is providing evidence on its unique potential to bring greater efficiency, transparency and traceability to the exchange of value and information in the agriculture sector,” said Kruseman.
“Many of the wicked problems and seemingly insuperable challenges facing dynamic, complex agri-food system value chains, especially in low and middle-income countries, boil down to a lack of trust, transparency and reliable governance structures,” said the researcher who also leads the Socio-Economic Data Community of Practice of the CGIAR Platform for Big Data inAgriculture.
Future Food panelist speak at the Strike Two Summit in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. (Photo: The New Fork)
A blockchain is a ledger that is almost impossible to forge. It can be described as a data structure that holds transactional records and ensures security, transparency and decentralization. Technology may be at the foundation of the solutions, but technology is the easy part; solving the softer side has proven to be a seemingly insuperable challenge over the past decades, Kruseman explained.
Digital trust and transparency technologies can be used to improve governance structures and limit corruption in agri-food systems in low and middle income countries, said Marieke de Ruyter de Wildt, co-founder of AgriFoodTrust.
“This new generation of decentralized technologies is, in essence, improving governance structures. People often think it is about technology, but it’s not. It is about people and how we organize things.”
“These technologies are neutral, immutable and censorship resistant. You can mimic this if you think about rules without a ruler. Just imagine what opportunities arise when a system is incorruptible,” said de Ruyter de Wildt.
It is hoped, accessible via QR codes, for example, that the technology can be used to tackle challenges, such as preventing the sale of counterfeit seeds to smallholder farmers, ensuring the nutritional value of biofortified crop varieties and promoting the uptake of sustainable agricultural principles whilst improving the implementation and monitoring of international agreements related to agriculture.
“This is where the platform comes in as a knowledge base. The AgriFoodTrust platform sees researchers from CGIAR Centers and academia, such as Wageningen University, experiment with these technologies on top of other solutions, business models and partnerships to determine what works, how, when and for whom, in order to share that information,” Kruseman added.
Findings on the new platform will be used to build capacity on all aspects of the technologies and their application to ensure this technology is inclusive and usable.
Along with Kruseman, AgriFoodTrust co-founders include digital agriculture experts de Ruyter de Wildt, the Founder and CEO of The New Fork, and Chris Addison, Senior Coordinator of Data for Agriculture at CTA. Seed funding for the platform has been raised through CTA, the CGIAR Platform for Big Data in Agriculture and the CGIAR Programs on MAIZE and WHEAT.
“AgriFoodTrust sets out to accelerate understanding about these technologies and fundamentally make food systems more integer and resilient,” explained de Ruyter de Wildt.
By 2050, farmers will need to grow enough diverse and nutritious food to feed 10 billion people on less land using less resources while faced with the challenges of a changing climate. This has led researchers to push for agricultural technologies that engender more inclusive, sustainable food systems. It is hoped that increased trust and transparency technologies can help overcome counterproductive incentives, poor governance structures, prevailing institutional arrangements and market failures.
A farm worker applies fertilizer in a field of Staha maize for seed production at Suba Agro’s Mbezi farm in Tanzania. (Photo: Peter Lowe/CIMMYT)
Crop yields in sub-Saharan Africa are generally low. This is in large part because of low fertilizer use. A recent study of six countries in sub-Saharan Africa showed that just 35% of farmers applied fertilizer. Some possible reasons for this could be that farmers may be unaware of the efficacy of fertilizer use; or have degraded soils that do not respond to fertilizer; they may not have the cash to purchase it; or because unpredictable rainfall makes such investments risky. It may also be because local fertilizer prices make their use insufficiently profitable for many farmers.
To better understand the potential fertilizer demand in a particular location, it is important to know how crops respond to fertilizer under local conditions, but it is critical to understand crop responses in terms of economic returns. This requires information about local market prices of fertilizers and other inputs, as well as the prices that a farmer could receive from selling the crop.
While national-level fertilizer prices may be available, it is necessary to consider the extent to which prices vary within countries, reflecting transportation costs and other factors. In the absence of such data, analysis of household-level behaviors requires assumptions about the prices smallholder farmers face — assumptions which may not be valid. For example, evaluations of the returns to production technologies settings have often assumed spatially invariant input and output prices or, in other words, that all farmers in a country face the same set of prices. This is at odds with what we know about economic remoteness and the highly variable market access conditions under which African smallholders operate.
An obstacle to using empirical data on sub-national disparities in fertilizer prices is the scarcity of such data. A new study focused on the spatial discrepancies in fertilizer prices. The study compiled local market urea price in eighteen countries in sub-Saharan Africa for the period between 2010-2018 and used spatial interpolation models — using points with known values to approximate values at other unknown points — to predict local prices at locations for which no empirical data was available. It was conducted by scientists at University of California, Davis, the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). The authors note that this is the first major attempt to systematically describe the spatial variability of fertilizer prices within the target countries and test the ability to estimate the price at unsampled locations.
Predicted relative urea price (local price divided by the observed median national price) for areas with crop land in eight East African countries.
“Our study uncovers considerable spatial variation in fertilizer prices within African countries and gives a much more accurate representation of the economic realities faced by African smallholders than the picture suggested by using national average prices,” said Camila Bonilla Cedrez, PhD Candidate at University of California, Davis. “We show that in many countries, this variation can be predicted for unsampled locations by fitting models of prices as a function of longitude, latitude, and additional predictor variables that capture aspects of market access, demand, and environmental conditions.”
Urea prices were generally found to be more expensive in remote areas or away from large urban centers, ports of entry or blending facilities. There were some exceptions, though. In Benin, Ghana and Nigeria, prices went down when moving away from the coast, with the possible explanation being market prices in areas with higher demand are lower. In other locations, imports of fertilizer from neighboring countries with lower prices may be affecting prices in another country or region, much like political influence. Politically, well-connected villages can receive more input subsidies compared to the less connected ones.
“The performance of our price estimation methods and the simplicity of our approach suggest that large scale price mapping for rural areas is a cost-effective way to provide more useful price information for guiding policy, targeting interventions, and for enabling more realistic applied microeconomic research. For example, local price estimates could be incorporated into household-survey-based analysis of fertilizer adoption,” explained Jordan Chamberlin, CIMMYT spatial economist. “In addition, such predictive ‘price maps’ can be incorporated into targeting and planning frameworks for agricultural investments. For example, to target technology promotion efforts to the areas where those technologies are most likely to be profitable.”
Predicted relative urea price (local price divided by the observed median national price) for areas with crop land in nine West African countries.
“The evidence we have compiled in this paper suggests that, while investments in more comprehensive and spatially representative price data collection would be very useful, we may utilize spatial price prediction models to extend the value of existing data to better reflect local price variation through interpolation,” explained Robert J. Hijmans, professor at University of California, Davis. “Even if imperfect, such estimates almost certainly better reflect farmers’ economic realities than assumptions of spatially constant prices within a given country. We propose that spatial price estimation methods such as the ones we employ here serve for better approximating heterogeneous economic market landscapes.”
This study has illustrated new ways for incorporating spatial variation in prices into efforts to understand the profitability of agricultural technologies across rural areas in sub-Saharan Africa. The authors suggest that an important avenue for future empirical work would be to evaluate the extent to which the subnational price variation documented is a useful explanatory factor for observed variation in smallholder fertilizer use in sub-Saharan Africa, after controlling for local agronomic responses and output prices. One way to do that may be to integrate input and output price predictions into spatial crop models, and then evaluate the degree to which modeled fertilizer use profitability predicts observed fertilizer use rates across different locations.
Kindie Tesfaye is a Senior Scientist based in Ethiopia. He has more than 15 years of experience in executing and managing climate, crop modeling and GIS related projects for agricultural research and development in developing countries.
During his time at CIMMYT, he has developed a system of data acquisition and quality control for climate, crop modeling and geospatial analysis. He has applied systems analysis, cropping systems modeling and geospatial analysis tools for yield gap analysis, targeting of climate smart technologies and climate change studies across different scales. In collaboration with partners, he has also developed a digital agro-climate advisory system that provides decision support to smallholder farmers.
One of the researchers behind the study, Yoseph Alemayehu, carries out a field survey in Ethiopia by mobile phone. (Photo Dave Hodson/CIMMYT)
TEXCOCO, Mexico — Using field and mobile phone surveillance data together with forecasts for spore dispersal and environmental suitability for disease, an international team of scientists has developed an early warning system which can predict wheat rust diseases in Ethiopia. The cross-disciplinary project draws on expertise from biology, meteorology, agronomy, computer science and telecommunications.
Reported this week in Environmental Research Letters, the new early warning system, the first of its kind to be implemented in a developing country, will allow policy makers and farmers all over Ethiopia to gauge the current situation and forecast wheat rust up to a week in advance.
The system was developed by the University of Cambridge, the UK Met Office, the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR), the Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Agency (ATA) and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT). It works by taking near real-time information from wheat rust surveys carried out by EIAR, regional research centers and CIMMYT using a smartphone app called Open Data Kit (ODK).
This is complemented by crowd-sourced information from the ATA-managed Farmers’ Hotline. The University of Cambridge and the UK Met Office then provide automated 7-day advance forecast models for wheat rust spore dispersal and environmental suitability based on disease presence.
All of this information is fed into an early warning unit that receives updates automatically on a daily basis. An advisory report is sent out every week to development agents and national authorities. The information also gets passed on to researchers and farmers.
Example of weekly stripe rust spore deposition based on dispersal forecasts. Darker colors represent higher predicted number of spores deposited. (Graphic: University of Cambridge/UK Met Office)
Timely alerts
“If there’s a high risk of wheat rust developing, farmers will get a targeted SMS text alert from the Farmers’ Hotline. This gives the farmer about three weeks to take action,” explained Dave Hodson, principal scientist with CIMMYT and co-author of the research study. The Farmers’ Hotline now has over four million registered farmers and extension agents, enabling rapid information dissemination throughout Ethiopia.
Ethiopia is the largest wheat producer in sub-Saharan Africa but the country still spends in excess of $600 million annually on wheat imports. More can be grown at home and the Ethiopian government has targeted to achieve wheat self-sufficiency by 2023.
“Rust diseases are a grave threat to wheat production in Ethiopia. The timely information from this new system will help us protect farmers’ yields, and reach our goal of wheat self-sufficiency,” said EIAR Director Mandefro Nigussie.
Wheat rusts are fungal diseases that can be dispersed by wind over long distances, quickly causing devastating epidemics which can dramatically reduce wheat yields. Just one outbreak in 2010 affected 30% of Ethiopia’s wheat growing area and reduced production by 15-20%.
The pathogens that cause rust diseases are continually evolving and changing over time, making them difficult to control. “New strains of wheat rust are appearing all the time — a bit like the flu virus,” explained Hodson.
In the absence of resistant varieties, one solution to wheat rust is to apply fungicide, but the Ethiopian government has limited supplies. The early warning system will help to prioritize areas at highest risk of the disease, so that the allocation of fungicides can be optimized.
Example of weekly stripe rust environmental suitability forecast. Yellow to Brown show the areas predicted to be most suitable for stripe rust infection. (Graphic: University of Cambridge/UK Met Office)
The cream of the crop
The early warning system puts Ethiopia at the forefront of early warning systems for wheat rust. “Nowhere else in the world really has this type of system. It’s fantastic that Ethiopia is leading the way on this,” said Hodson. “It’s world-class science from the UK being applied to real-world problems.”
“This is an ideal example of how it is possible to integrate fundamental research in modelling from epidemiology and meteorology with field-based observation of disease to produce an early warning system for a major crop,” said Christopher Gilligan, head of the Epidemiology and Modelling Group at the University of Cambridge and a co-author of the paper, adding that the approach could be adopted in other countries and for other crops.
“The development of the early warning system was successful because of the great collaborative spirit between all the project partners,” said article co-author Clare Sader-Allen, currently a regional climate modeller at the British Antarctic Survey.
“Clear communication was vital for bringing together the expertise from a diversity of subjects to deliver a common goal: to produce a wheat rust forecast relevant for both policy makers and farmers alike.”
This study was made possible through the support provided by the BBSRC GCRF Foundation Awards for Global Agriculture and Food Systems Research, which brings top class UK science to developing countries, the Delivering Genetic Gains in Wheat (DGGW) Project managed by Cornell University and funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the UK Department for International Development (DFID). The Government of Ethiopia also provided direct support into the early warning system. This research is supported by CGIAR Fund Donors.
ABOUT CIMMYT:
The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) is the global leader in publicly-funded maize and wheat research and related farming systems. Headquartered near Mexico City, CIMMYT works with hundreds of partners throughout the developing world to sustainably increase the productivity of maize and wheat cropping systems, thus improving global food security and reducing poverty. CIMMYT is a member of the CGIAR System and leads the CGIAR Research Programs on Maize and Wheat and the Excellence in Breeding Platform. The Center receives support from national governments, foundations, development banks and other public and private agencies. For more information, visit staging.cimmyt.org.
ABOUT THE ETHIOPIAN INSTITUTE OF AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH (EIAR):
The Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR) is one of the oldest and largest agricultural research institutes in Africa, with roots in the Ethiopian Agricultural Research System (EARS), founded in the late 1940s. EIAR’s objectives are: (1) to generate, develop and adapt agricultural technologies that focus on the needs of the overall agricultural development and its beneficiaries; (2) to coordinate technically the research activities of Ethiopian Agricultural Research System; (3) build up a research capacity and establish a system that will make agricultural research efficient, effective and based on development needs; and (4) popularize agricultural research results. EIAR’s vision is to see improved livelihood of all Ethiopians engaged in agriculture, agro-pastoralism and pastoralism through market competitive agricultural technologies.
Domestic rice and wheat production in Bangladesh has more than doubled in the last 30 years, despite declining per capita arable land. The fact that the country is now almost self-sufficient in staple food production is due in large part to successful and rapid adoption of modern, high-yielding crop varieties. This has been widely documented, but less attention has been paid to the contribution of small-scale irrigation systems, whose proliferation has enabled double rice cropping and a competitive market system in which farmers can purchase irrigation services from private pump owners at affordable rates.
However, excess groundwater abstraction in areas of high shallow tube-well density and increased fuel costs for pumping have called into question the sustainability of Bangladesh’s groundwater irrigation economy. Cost-saving agronomic methods are called for, alongside aligned policies, markets, and farmers’ incentives.
A recent study by researchers at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) examines the different institutions and water-pricing methods for irrigation services that have emerged in Bangladesh, each of which varies in their incentive structure for water conservation, and the level of economic risk involved for farmers and service providers.
Using primary data collected from 139 irrigation service providers and 556 client-farmers, the authors assessed the structure of irrigation service types as well as the associated market and institutional dimensions. They found that competition between pump owners, social capital, and social relationship between of pump owners and client farmers, significantly influence the structure of irrigation services and irrigation water pricing methods. Greater competition between pump owners, for instance, increases the likelihood of pay-per-hour services while reducing that of crop sharing arrangements.
Based on these and other findings, authors made policy recommendations for enhancing irrigation services and sustainability in Bangladesh. As Bangladesh is already highly successful in terms of the conventional irrigation system, the authors urge taking it to the next level for sustainability and efficiency.
Currently Bangladesh’s irrigation system is based on centrifugal pumps and diesel engines. The authors suggest scaling out the energy efficient axial flow pump, and the alternate wetting and drying system for water conservation and irrigation efficiency. They also recommend further investment in rural electrification to facilitate the use of electric motors, which can reduce air pollution by curbing dependency on diesel engines.
This study was made possible through the support provided by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to the Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia (CSISA). Additional support was provided by the CGIAR Research Programs on Maize (MAIZE) and Wheat (WHEAT).
Local irrigation service providers in southern Bangladesh demonstrate the use of a two-wheeled tractor to power an axial flow pump to provide fuel-efficient surface water irrigation. (Photo: Tim Krupnik/CIMMYT)
Read more recent publications by CIMMYT researchers:
A spatial framework for ex-ante impact assessment of agricultural technologies. 2019. Andrade, J.F., Rattalino Edreira, J.I., Farrow, A., Loon, M.P. van., Craufurd, P., Rurinda, J., Shamie Zingore, Chamberlin, J., Claessens, L., Adewopo, J., Ittersum, M.K. van, Cassman, K.G., Grassini, P. In: Global Food Security v. 20, p. 72-81.
In 2016, the emergence of wheat blast, a devastating seed- and wind-borne pathogen, threatened an already precarious food security situation in Bangladesh and South Asia.
In a bid to limit the disease’s impact in the region, the Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI) collaborated with the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and researchers from nearly a dozen institutions worldwide to quickly develop a long-term, sustainable solution.
The result is BARI Gom 33, a new blast-resistant, high-yielding, zinc-fortified wheat variety, which Bangladesh’s national seed board approved for dissemination in 2017. In the 2017-18 season, the Bangladesh Wheat Research Council provided seed for multiplication and the country’s Department of Agricultural Extension established on-farm demonstrations in blast prone districts.
However, the process of providing improved seed for all farmers can be a long one. In a normal release scenario, it can take up to five years for a new wheat variety to reach those who need it, as nucleus and breeder seeds are produced, multiplied and certified before being disseminated by extension agencies. Given the severity of the threat to farmer productivity and the economic and nutritional benefits of the seed, scientists at CIMMYT argue that additional funding should be secured to expedite this process.
According a new study on the economic benefits of BARI Gom 33, 58 percent of Bangladesh’s wheat growing areas are vulnerable to wheat blast. The rapid dissemination of seed can help resource-poor farmers better cope with emerging threats and changing agro-climatic conditions, and would play a significant role in combatting malnutrition through its increased zinc content. It could also have a positive effect on neighboring countries such as India, which is alarmingly vulnerable to wheat blast.
“Our simulation exercise shows that the benefits of disseminating BARI Gom 33 far exceed the seed multiplication and dissemination costs, which are estimated at around $800 per hectare,” explains Khondoker Mottaleb, CIMMYT socioeconomist and lead author of the study. Even in areas unaffected by wheat blast, scaling out BARI Gom 33 could generate a net gain of $8 million for farmers due to its 5 percent higher average yield than other available varieties. These benefits would nearly double in the case of an outbreak in blast-affected or blast-vulnerable districts.
More than 50 percent of Bangladesh’s wheat growing areas are vulnerable to wheat blast. (Source: Mottaleb et al.)
Based on these findings, the authors urge international development organizations and donor agencies to continue their support for BARI Gom 33, particularly for government efforts to promote the blast-resistant variety. The minimum seed requirement to begin the adoption and diffusion process in the 2019-20 wheat season will be 160 metric tons, which will require an initial investment of nearly $1 million for seed multiplication.
This study was supported by the CGIAR Research Program on wheat agri-food systems (CRP WHEAT), the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR), the CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (CRP-A4NH), and the HarvestPlus challenge program (partly funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation).
A new testing and learning platform for digital trust and transparency technologies — such as blockchain — in 
