research: Demand-driven seed systems

Drone shot of wheat trials at CIMMYT global headquarters in Texcoco, Mexico. (Photo: Alfonso Cortés/CIMMYT)

Another food crisis?

Written by Rodrigo Ordóñez on March 23, 2022. Posted in Blogs.

Mature wheat spikes. (Photo: Alfonso Cortés/CIMMYT)

The impacts of the Ukraine crisis are likely to reverberate over months, if not years, to come. If the reductions in wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine are as severe as anticipated, global supplies of wheat will be seriously constrained. If a major reduction in fertilizer exports comes to pass, the resulting drop in global productivity will tighten global markets for wheat, other grains and alternate food sources — leaving vulnerable people all over the world facing higher food prices, hunger and malnutrition.

These massive disruptions will erode modest progress made toward gender equality, biodiversity conservation and dietary diversification. The severe impact of this single shock shows the underlying fragility and complexity of our agri-food systems. Climate change will bring many more.

The world must take essential actions to mitigate food shocks, stabilize local wheat supplies and transition toward agri-food system resilience, from the current efficiency-driven model. We call for large and sustained agricultural research investments as a foundational element of any viable, food-secure future.

From chronic challenges to food crisis conditions

Global wheat production for export is geographically concentrated, placing inherent vulnerabilities on the global system. Dominance of the wheat export trade by a relatively small number of countries makes sense under an efficiency paradigm, but it opens the door to price spikes and food-related crises. At the same time, biophysical vulnerability of major global breadbaskets is on the rise as drought and other weather extremes increase volatility in cereal yields, exports and prices.

Russia and Ukraine produce 28% of the world’s total wheat exports and Russia is a globally important source of fuel and fertilizer. With over 2.5 billion people worldwide consuming wheat-based products and wheat futures at their highest levels since 2012, disrupted exports from Russia and Ukraine would usher in substantial new pressures on global wheat markets and tremendous risks for vulnerable populations around the world.

Dependence on wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine imperils food security in lower- and middle-income countries in North Africa and the Middle East (Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Yemen), the Mediterranean (Azerbaijan, Turkey), sub-Saharan Africa (Nigeria, Sudan), Southern Asia (Bangladesh, Pakistan) and throughout Southeast Asia. Globally elevated food prices will hit hardest in those countries already struggling with food insecurity.

Layered onto the existing concentration of wheat-exporting countries and the climate-induced vulnerabilities in essential global breadbaskets, the crisis in Ukraine and trade sanctions on Russia are triggering a level of volatility that could easily overwhelm existing mitigation mechanisms. We may well see a range of negative effects over the short, medium and long term, including:

Severe food insecurity and economic impacts due to reduced global wheat supplies and price increases affecting all wheat-importing countries and humanitarian agencies.
Diminished global grain productivity due to fertilizer supply limitations and price escalation, especially in low-income, fertilizer-import-dependent countries.
Higher food prices and expanded global hunger and malnutrition as a result of tighter fuel supplies driving up costs of agricultural production.
Pressure on household budgets negatively affecting nutrition, health, education and gender equity.

The employee of an Ethiopian seed association smiles as bags of wheat seed are ready to be distributed. (Photo: Gerardo Mejía/CIMMYT)

Stabilize while building resilience

With these multi-layered challenges in view, we propose essential actions to mitigate near-term food security crises, to stabilize wheat supply and to concurrently transition toward agri-food system resilience.

Without doubt, the world’s top priority must be to mitigate food security crises at our doorstep. This will involve boosting wheat production through expanded acreage (e.g. in high-performing systems in the Global North) and closing yield gaps (e.g. improved management and value chains of rainfed, wheat-based systems in the Global South) using policy incentives such as price guarantees and subsidized agricultural inputs. Short-term food insecurity can also be addressed through demand-side management (e.g. market controls to conserve grain stocks for human consumption; use of lower-cost flour blends) and de-risking alternative sourcing (e.g. trade agreements).

As these actions are taken, a range of strategies can simultaneously drive toward more resilient wheat supply at local to global scales. Well-functioning seed systems, demand-driven agronomic support and other elements of wheat self-reliance can be encouraged through shifts in local policy, regulatory and sectoral contexts. Enhanced monitoring capacity can track spatial patterns in wheat cropping, including expansion into areas where comparative advantage for wheat production (e.g. agro-ecological suitability; supporting infrastructure) has been identified in rural development frameworks and national plans (e.g. as a double crop in Ethiopian midlands). In addition to enabling yield forecasts, surveillance systems are critical to phytosanitary control of geographically restricted pathogens under altered wheat trade routes.

Yet, these steps to mitigate food shocks and stabilize local wheat supplies will not adequately protect the world from climate-related biophysical risks to food and nutritional security. In parallel, a transition toward agri-food system resilience requires transformative investments in agricultural diversification, sustainable natural resource management and low-greenhouse-gas agroecosystems, as well as meaningful actions toward achieving gender equality, nutritional sufficiency and livelihood security.

Sustained research & development for a food-secure future

None of the critical actions described above are guaranteed given the oscillating global investment in agricultural research. Enabled by decades of agricultural research, the world has managed to constrain the number and severity of food security crises through major gains in agricultural productivity.

The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), the global international wheat research Center of the CGIAR, has been working tirelessly to maintain wheat harvests around the world in the face of mounting disease pressures and climate challenges. The estimated benefit-cost ratio for wheat improvement research ranges from 73:1 to 103:1. Yet, research funding only rises when food crises occur, revealing the globalized risks of our highly interconnected agri-food systems, and then tapers as memories fade.

With limited resources, scientists around the world are attacking the complex challenge of increasing agricultural yields and ensuring stable, equitable food supplies. Receiving only about 2% of international agricultural research funding over time, CIMMYT and the entire CGIAR have had limited ability to develop the long-term research capabilities that could mitigate or prevent short-term emergencies with medium- to long-term effects.

Responding to the mounting pressures on deeply complex agri-food systems requires integrative solutions that allow farmers and other agri-food stakeholders to mitigate and withstand shocks and to achieve viable livelihoods. Knowledge and technology needs are extensive across production systems (e.g. wheat-legume intercropping; cereals-focused agroecological interventions), value chains (e.g. context-appropriate seed systems; nutrition enhancement through flour blending), monitoring systems (e.g. genomics-based surveillance), and social dimensions (e.g. gender implications of new production and consumption strategies; policy interventions).

Generating such solutions depends on robust, multidisciplinary and transparent research capabilities that fuel the transition to agri-food system resilience. Robust international investment in resilient agricultural systems is an essential condition for national security, global peace and prosperity.

Read the full article (pre-print):
Another food crisis? The Ukraine conflict, global wheat supply and food security

Explore our coverage and analysis of the Russia-Ukraine war and its impact on global food security.

Farmers in Mexico attend a workshop organized by CIMMYT to build their capacity in seed production. (Photo: X. Fonseca/CIMMYT)

Supporting the growth of local maize seed industries: Lessons from Mexico

Written by Steven M on March 8, 2022. Posted in Features.

Over the past several decades, maize breeders have made considerable strides in the development and deployment of new hybrids. These offer higher yields compared to older varieties and reduce the risks farmers face from the vagaries of a changing climate and emerging pest and disease threats. But, for small-scale farmers to adopt new, improved climate-resilient and stress-tolerant maize hybrids at scale, they must be first available, accessible and their benefits need to be widely understood and appreciated. This is where vibrant national seed industries potentially play an important role.

Prior to the 1990s, government agencies tended to play the lead role in hybrid production and distribution. Since then, expectations are that the private sector — in particular locally owned small-scale seed enterprises — produce maize hybrids and distribute them to farmers. When successful, local seed industries are able to produce quality new hybrids and effectively market them to farmers, such that newer hybrids replace older ones in agrodealer stores in relatively short periods of time. If small seed enterprises lack capacities or incentives to aggressively market new hybrids, then the gains made by breeding will not be realized in farmers’ fields. By monitoring seed sales, breeders at CIMMYT and elsewhere, as well as seed business owners, gain insights into smallholders’ preferences and demands.

A recent publication in Food Security assesses the capacities of 22 small and medium-sized seed enterprises in Mexico to produce and market new maize hybrids. The study draws on the experience of the MasAgro project, a decade-long development whereby the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), in partnership with Mexico’s Department of Agriculture and Rural Development (SADER), engaged with dozens of locally owned seed businesses to expand their portfolio of maize hybrids.

The authors, led by CIMMYT senior economist Jason Donovan, highlight the critical role the MasAgro project played in reinvigorating the portfolios of maize seeds produced by small and medium-sized enterprises. MasAgro “filled a gap that had long existed in publicly supported breeding programs” by providing easy access to new cultivars, available to local seed companies without royalties or branding conditions, and without the need for seed certification. The enterprises, in turn, showed a remarkably high capacity to take up new seed technology, launching 129 commercial products between 2013 and 2017.

“Without doubt the MasAgro project can be considered a success in terms of its ability to get new maize germplasm into the product portfolios of small seed companies throughout Mexico,” Donovan said.

The authors also delve into the challenges these maize enterprises faced as they looked to scale the new technologies in a competitive market that has long been dominated by multinational seed enterprises. They observed a lack of access to physical capital, which in turn evidenced a lack of financial capital or access to credit, as well as limited marketing know-how and capacity to integrate marketing innovations into their operations. While most maize enterprises identified the need to expand sales of new commercial products, “signs of innovation in seed marketing were limited” and most of them relied heavily on sales to local and state governments.

According to Donovan, “The MasAgro experience also shows that a strong focus on the demand side of formal seed systems is needed if breeding programs are to achieve greater impact in less time. This implies more attention to how farmers decide on which seed to purchase and how seed companies and seed retailers market seed to farmers. It also implies strong coordination between public sector to make building the local seed industry a national imperative.”

Beyond the Mexican context, the paper’s findings may be of particular interest to development organizations looking to supply local seed industries facing strong competition from regional and multinational companies. One example is the effort to support small seed businesses in Nepal, which face strong competition from larger Indian companies with long histories of engagement in Nepalese seed markets. There are also important lessons for policymakers in eastern and southern Africa, where strict controls over seed release and certification potentially lead to higher production costs and slower rates of introduction of new products by local maize seed companies.

Read the full article:
Capacities of local maize seed enterprises in Mexico: Implications for seed systems development

This paper is complemented by two CIMMYT-led publications in a special issue of Outlook on Agriculture that highlights experiences in sub-Saharan Africa. That special issue grew out of the CGIAR Community of Excellence for Seed Systems Development where CIMMYT led the discussion on seed value chains and private sector linkages.

Cover image: Farmers in Mexico attend a workshop organized by CIMMYT to build their capacity in seed production. (Photo: X. Fonseca/CIMMYT)

Food Is Just as Vital as Oil to National Security

Written by Bea Ciordia on March 8, 2022. Posted in In the media.

A new Bloomberg op-ed urges nations to steer more money to organizations like CIMMYT that are advancing crucial research on how to grow more resilient wheat and maize crops in regions that are becoming steadily less arable.

Wheat fields in Ukraine. Photo: tOrange.biz on Flickr (CC BY 2.0)

What price wheat?

Written by Rodrigo Ordóñez on February 28, 2022. Posted in Blogs.

Wheat fields in Ukraine. Photo: <a href="http://www.torange.biz">tOrange.biz</a> on <a href="https://flic.kr/p/k6WPqM">Flickr</a> (<a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/">CC BY 2.0</a>) — Wheat fields in Ukraine. Photo: tOrange.biz on Flickr (CC BY 2.0)

When wheat prices rise, so do global food prices, along with conflict, inequality and instability. Over the past two decades, the world has witnessed multiple crises erupt over the social and political instability caused by rising costs for staple cereals. The global food crisis that impacted many parts of the world in 2007–2008 was a response, in part, to the prices for wheat and rice which had increased 130% and 70%, respectively, compared to the year before. More recently, spikes in grain prices catalyzed the 2011 Arab Spring.

With the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the resulting longer-term disruptions of the country’s rural economy, there is potential for another round of turmoil linked to prices for staple cereals.

Ukraine is a breadbasket for the world, with 57% of its land area arable for agriculture. Wheat production in the country increased roughly 10%, on average, between 2000 and 2020. In 2022, Ukraine ranked as the fifth largest wheat exporter globally, exporting $3.59 billion of wheat.

Today, global wheat prices are at their highest levels since 2012: $9 per bushel, based on data from the Chicago Board of Trade.

Wheat is a staple crop, essential to food security. It is consumed by over 2.5 billion people worldwide, including large proportions of the populations of many food-insecure regions in the world. Many of the wheat-consuming countries in these regions are far from wheat self-sufficient, relying on global imports to meet demand. This causes significant vulnerability in food supply and increases associated humanitarian risks. In 2019, important quantities of Ukrainian wheat were exported to low- and middle-income countries in North Africa and the Middle East. Although the impacts of current price increases are anticipated to be short-term, they are likely to be inequitably felt, as not all buyers are able to pay higher prices.

There are over 6 million hectares of wheat planted in farmers’ fields across Ukraine that will be due for harvest in June and July of 2022. The length and depth of the current crisis has potential implications for the fate of this in-field crop, and for its subsequent harvest and global distribution. Likewise, sanctions and trading restrictions on Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter — exporting $7.92 billion of wheat in 2020 — are likely to place added pressure on international wheat markets. This comes at a time of rising costs in agriculture, including the soaring price of nitrogen fertilizer and increasing fuel and supply chain costs. The gap between supply and demand is also becoming wider with climatic instability — such as drought conditions — hitting both domestic production and export stocks in several countries.

Rising prices for staple cereals have historically led to instability, particularly in fragile regions where food security is low. The impacts of current high wheat prices are likely to be felt most significantly by populations in the Global South who rely on wheat imports.

The potential humanitarian crisis beyond the borders of the current conflict needs to be addressed to avoid deepening global divisions in equality of access to food. In the case of wheat, long-term solutions will require much higher levels of investment, coordination and cooperation between governments, development organizations and agro-industry. Without doubt, part of the solution lies in increasing wheat productivity and profitability in food-insecure regions where wheat has traditionally been grown, as well as supporting the expansion of wheat production into climatically suitable areas in countries which have traditionally relied on imports to meet local demand.

A worker uses a machine to seal a bag of maize seed at the Sementes Nzara Yapera Lda warehouse in Catandika, Mozambique. Photo: CIMMYT/Kipenz Films.

New research highlights opportunities to deepen engagement with private sector for increasing impact from cereal breeding

Written by Marcia MacNeil on February 3, 2022. Posted in News.

A newly published special issue in the journal Outlook on Agriculture features views and experiences on seed systems performance in Sub-Saharan Africa and options to drive faster uptake of new crop varieties. The contributions reflect the breadth of perspectives and expertise within CGIAR and beyond and make the case for the need for more demand-oriented variety development and seed delivery.

A seed system refers to the various actors, processes, and relationships that allow for the production, conservation, exchange and use of propagation materials for crops, trees, forages, livestock, and fish. For the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), seed systems involve private seed companies, retailers, and government research agencies, among others, that are involved in the design, testing, production and distribution of high-yielding, climate-resilient, and pest- and disease-resistant maize hybrids.

“A well-functioning seed system is critical for ensuring that farmers have reliable access to the quality seeds that they want. It forms the critical link between breeders and the small-scale farmers responsible for much of the food production in Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and South Asia,” said CIMMYT Senior Economist Jason Donovan, who co-authored the introductory article.

“The papers in this collection raise important issues which up to now have not received enough attention, to include the strategies, capacities and incentives of the private sector to invest in the distribution of new varieties. The topics discussed have implications for the One CGIAR in its ongoing efforts to develop a coherent and coordinated seed system research program that supports accelerated varietal uptake and turnover through effective seed delivery,” he added.

CIMMYT researchers contributed two papers, one which looks at the role of different types of seed producers and traders in shaping seed systems performance and another which proposes new directions for research on gender and formal maize seed systems. The special edition grew out of the CGIAR Community of Excellence for Seed Systems Development where CIMMYT led the discussion on seed value chains and private sector linkages.

One consensus among the authors is that a wider range of partnerships will be required to reenforce the potential of seed systems to delivery more new varieties to small-scale farmers in less time.

The full special series is available here: https://journals.sagepub.com/toc/OAG/current

Govt mulling mechanization to boost jute production

Written by Bea Ciordia on September 29, 2021. Posted in In the media.

The Bangladeshi government is thinking of expanding the work of the Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia-Mechanization Extension Activity (CSISA-MEA) project in Bogra, Jessore, Faridpur and Cox’s Bazar to the rest of the country.

The joint initiative, launched in October 2019 and funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Feed the Future initiative, seeks to promote the mechanization of jute production across Bangladesh, among other issues.

Pauline Muindi, gender research associate with CIMMYT, at the mock agrodealer shop where she acted as a clerk. (Photo: CIMMYT)

Buying into new seed

Written by Rodrigo Ordóñez on May 24, 2021. Posted in Features.

Mary Nzau enters a mock agrodealer shop set up on a field on the outskirts of Tala town in Machakos County, Kenya. On display are nine 2kg bags of hybrid maize seed. She picks one. By the look of it, her mind is made up. After a quick scan of the shelf, she has in her hand the variety that she has been purchasing for years.

Regina Mbaika Mutua is less lucky. The variety she always buys is not on display in the mock shop. As part of the experiment, the research team has removed from the shelf the variety she indicated she usually buys. The team’s goal is to observe what factors influence her seed purchase decision in the absence of the variety she was expecting to purchase.

“Although I did not find the variety I was looking for, I picked an alternative as I have seen it perform well on a neighboring farm,” Mutua says, adding that she will plant it this season alongside recycled (farm-saved) seed on her one-acre farm.

Michael Mutua passes up the popular variety he has been planting for the previous two years. He picks one that has been advertised extensively on local radio. “I have heard about it severally on radio. I would like to experiment with this new seed and see how it performs on my farm. Should I like the results, I will give it a chance in ensuing seasons,” he says.

Pieter Rutsaert explains the study setup at a mock agrodealer shop. (Photo: Joshua Masinde/CIMMYT)

The big adoption conundrum

The goal of the out-of-stock study is to improve an understanding of how farmers make their maize seed choices, says Pieter Rutsaert, Markets and Value Chain Specialist at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT).

“We do this by inviting farmers to a mock agrodealer store that we set up in their villages and give them a small budget to purchase a bag of seed. However, not all farmers walk into the same store: some will find their preferred variety, others won’t. Some will have access to additional trait information or see some varieties with price promotions while others don’t.”

Rutsaert acknowledges that breeding programs and their partner seed companies have done a great job at giving farmers access to maize hybrids with priority traits such as drought tolerance and high yield. CIMMYT then works closely with local seed companies to get varieties into the hands of farmers. “We want to extend that support by providing insights to companies and public breeding programs on how to get new varieties more quickly into the hands of farmers,” he says.

Pauline Muindi (left), gender research associate with CIMMYT, acts as a mock agrodealer clerk and attends a farmer. (Photo: CIMMYT)

The hybrid maize seed sector in Kenya is highly competitive. Amid intensifying competition, new varieties face a daunting task breaking into the market, independent of their quality. While farmers now have more options to pick from, a major challenge has been how to get them to adopt new varieties.

“Moving farmers from something they know to something they don’t is not easy. They tend to stick with what they know and have been growing for years,” Rutsaert says.

Pauline Muindi, gender research associate with CIMMYT, acted as the stand-in clerk at the mock store. She noticed that farmers tend to spend very little time in the shop when their preferred variety is available. However, this all changes in the out-of-stock situation, pushing farmers to step out of their comfort zone and explore new options.

The first step to overcoming this challenge is to entice maize farmers to try a new seed variety, even just once, Rutsaert observes. If it is a good variety, farmers will see that and then the market will work in its favor: farmers will come back to that variety in subsequent years and tell others about it.

“The good news is that many of the varieties we are currently seeing on the market have performed well — that’s why they’re popular. But there are newer varieties that are even better, especially in terms of attributes like drought tolerance. We would like to understand how farmers can be convinced to try out these newer varieties. Is it about the need for more awareness on varietal traits? Can we use price promotions? Or are there other factors?” he says.

A researcher interviews Mary Nzau (right), a farmer from Tala town in Machakos County, after her mock purchase. (Photo: Joshua Masinde/CIMMYT)

Does seed price matter?

“With today’s climate uncertainty, it is better to stick to a variety that is adapted to such climate rather than banking on a variety one is oblivious of. The risk is not worth it,” Nzau says. She adds that she would rather buy a higher-priced seed packet she knows and trusts than a lower-priced one that she has not used in the past. Radio promotions of new or other varieties have limited sway over her decision to make the switch.

Faith Voni, another farmer, agrees. “It is better to purchase a higher-priced variety whose quality I can vouch for than risk purchasing a lower-priced one that I know little about. I do not wish to take such a risk.” Voni says she would also be more inclined to experiment with another variety that she had seen perform well on a neighbor’s farm.

Michael Mutua holds a different view. “If there is an option of an equally good but new variety that is lower-priced than the variety I prefer, my wallet decides,” he says.

Vivian Hoffmann, an economist at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and collaborator on the study, says price can be key for convincing consumers to try a new product. “Our previous research on maize flour choice found that a provisional 10 percent discount boosted sales tremendously,” Hoffmann says. “Of course, that only gets your foot in the door; after that, a new variety will need to win farmers over based on its merits.”

Hoffmann is interested in the extent to which drawing farmers’ attention to key varietal attributes influences their seed choice. “This information is generally already available on seed packets, but we live in a world of information overload. Promoting certain attributes through in-store signage is an approach that is widely used to help consumers make more healthier food choices. Doing the same for new seed varieties makes a lot of sense.”

Michael Mutua (left) responds to preliminary questions from one of the research team members before proceeding to make his seed selection at the mock agrodealer shop. (Photo: Joshua Masinde/CIMMYT)

The value of drought tolerance

Situated on Kenya’s eastern region, Machakos is characterized by persistent water stress. Climate change induced erratic rainfall has pushed traits that can tolerate the unfavorable weather conditions in the favorite’s corner. While other traits such as high yield and disease resistance are equally important, the seed, when planted, must first withstand the effects of droughts or water stress in some seasons and germinate. This is the most crucial step in the long journey to either a decent, bare minimum or no yield. A lot of farmers still plant recycled seed alongside hybrid varieties. But these are no match to water stress conditions, which decimate fields planted with farmer-saved seed.

“If a variety is not climate resilient, I will likely not harvest anything at all,” says Nzau. She has planted a drought-tolerant variety for ten years now. Prior to that, she had planted about three other varieties as well as recycled seed. “The only advantage with recycled seed is that given the right amount of rainfall, they mature fast — typically within two months. This provides my family with an opportunity to eat boiled or roast maize,” she notes.

However, varieties need to do more than just survive harsh weather conditions. Breeders face a daunting task of incorporating as many traits as possible to cater to the overarching and the specific interests of multiple farmers. As Murenga Mwimali, a maize breeder at the Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization (KALRO) and collaborator in this research says, innovations in breeding technologies are making breeding more efficient.

“It is better to have a diversity of product profiles as different market niches are captured within a particular agroecological zones. This is such that farmers may not just benefit from the minimum traits like drought tolerance, but also more specific traits they are looking for,” Mwimali says.

Smallholder farmers continue to play a central role in the seed development process. Capturing what happens at the point of purchase, for instance, at the agrodealer, and understanding how they purchase seed offers valuable insights on the traits that are deemed essential in the breeding process. This work contributes to CIMMYT’s focus on fast-tracking varietal turnover by turning the levers towards a demand-driven seed system.

Cover photo: Pauline Muindi, gender research associate with CIMMYT, at the mock agrodealer shop where she acted as a clerk. (Photo: CIMMYT)

México y EU establecen estrategia conjunta a favor de la seguridad alimentaria

Written by Bea Ciordia on May 16, 2021. Posted in In the media.

Mexico’s Secretariat of Agriculture and Rural Development (SADER) and its counterpart in the United States reached an agreement to promote knowledge sharing and scientific collaboration on agriculture-related issues.

México se consolida como el tercer productor agropecuario de América Latina

Written by Bea Ciordia on April 29, 2021. Posted in In the media.

During the presentation of Mexico’s 2021 Agri-Food Expectations, Bram Govaerts, Director General of CIMMYT, flagged a number of initiatives aimed at supporting the country’s food self-sufficiency and safeguarding the cultural heritage of its agricultural sector.

A researcher from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) demonstrates the use of a farming app in the field. (Photo: C. De Bode/CGIAR)

Taking stock of value chain development

Written by Steven M on January 7, 2021. Posted in Features.

In 1967 Albert O. Hirschman, the pioneering development economist, published Development Projects Observed. Based on an analysis of a handful of long-standing World Bank projects, the book was an effort, as Hirschman writes in the preface, “to ‘sing’ the epic adventure of development — its challenge, drama, and grandeur.” He sang this epic not in the register of high development theory, but rather through the ups and downs and unexpected twists of real-world development projects.

Today, a new group of researchers have taken up a similar challenge. Value Chain Development and the Poor: Promise, delivery, and opportunities for impact at scale, a new book edited by Jason Donovan, Dietmar Stoian and Jon Hellin, surveys over two decades of academic and practical thinking on value chains and value chain development. While value chain development encompasses a broad variety of approaches, it has largely focused on improving the ability of small scale, downstream actors — such as smallholders in agri-food value chains — to capture more value for their products or to engage in value-adding activities. Value chain development approaches have also focused on improving the social and environmental impacts of specific value chains. Donovan, Stoian and Hellin’s book assesses these approaches through careful analysis of real-world cases. The book was published with support from the CGIAR Research Programs on Maize and on Policies, Institutions, and Markets.

Lessons learned

The book takes an unsparing look at what has and hasn’t worked in the field of value chain development. It begins by dissecting the drivers of the high degree of turnover in approaches that characterizes the field. The editors argue that “issue-attention cycles” among project stakeholders, coupled with monitoring and evaluation metrics that are more focused on tracking project implementation rather than producing robust measurements of their social impact, too often lead to the adoption — and abandonment — of approaches based on novelty and buzz.

The unfortunate consequences are that strengths and limitations of any given approach are never fully appreciated and that projects — and even entire approaches — are abandoned before they’ve had a chance to generate deep social impacts. Moreover, the opportunity to really learn from development projects — both in terms of refining and adapting a given approach to local conditions, and of abstracting scalable solutions from real development experiences — is lost.

A recurring theme throughout the book is the tension between the context-sensitivity needed for successful value chain development interventions and the need for approaches that can be scaled and replicated. Programs must develop tools for practitioners on one hand and demonstrate scalability to funders on the other. For example, a chapter on maize diversity and value chain development in Guatemala’s western highlands illustrates how an approach that was successful in Mexico — connecting producers of indigenous maize landraces with niche markets — is ill-suited to the Guatemalan context, where most producers are severely maize deficient. And a chapter reviewing guides for gender-equitable value chain development highlights how — for all their positive impact — such guides often overlook highly context- and culturally-specific gender dynamics. Intra-household bargaining dynamics and local masculinities, for example, can play critical roles in the success or failure of gender-focused value chain development interventions.

This new book takes an unsparing look at what has and hasn’t worked in the field of value chain development.

Finally, while lauding the valuable impact many value chain development initiatives have achieved, the editors warn against an exclusive reliance on market-based mechanisms, especially when trying to benefit the poorest and most marginalized of smallholders. In the case of Guatemala’s maize-deficient highland farmers, for example, the development of niche markets for native maize proved to be a poor mechanism for achieving the stated goal of preserving maize biodiversity and farmers’ livelihoods. Non-market solutions are called for. Based on this and similar experiences, the editors note that, while value chain development can be a valuable tool, to truly achieve impact at scale it must be coordinated with broader development efforts.

“The challenge of ensuring that value chain development contributes to a broad set of development goals requires transdisciplinary, multisector collaboration within broader frameworks, such as integrated rural-urban development, food system transformation, and green recovery of the economy in the post COVID-19 era,” write the editors.

This bracing and clear reflection on the promise and limitations of current development approaches is not only timely; it is perhaps more urgent today than in Hirschman’s time. While tremendous gains have been made since the middle of the 20^th century, many stubborn challenges remain, and global climate change threatens to undo decades of progress. Projects like Value Chain Development and the Poor and the ongoing Ceres2030 initiative provide development practitioners, researchers, funders and other stakeholders a much needed assessment of what can be built upon and what needs to be rethought as they tackle these gargantuan challenges.

Embracing uncertainty

At the time Development Projects Observed was published, the study and practice of development was already entering a crisis of adolescence, as it were. Having achieved quasi-independence from its parent discipline of economics, it had to settle on an identity of its own.

Hirschman’s book represented one possible way forward — an understanding of development practice as a blend of art and science. The book’s most famous concept, that of the Hiding Hand, illustrates how planners’ optimism could fuel enormously complex and challenging projects — undertakings that might never have been attempted had all the challenges been known beforehand. At the same time, projects’ inevitable failures and shortcomings could spur creative local responses and solutions, thus ensuring their eventual success and rootedness in their specific context.

As Michele Alacevich points out in the Afterword to the book’s most recent reissue, the World Bank’s response to Hirschman’s book demonstrates the road that development research and practice ultimately took. The book was disregarded, and the Bank turned to the growing literature on cost-benefit analysis instead. “Whereas Hirschman’s analysis had placed uncertainty — an unmeasurable dimension — center stage, cost-benefit analysis assimilated it to risk, therefore turning it into something measurable and quantifiable,” Alacevich writes. Faced with a newfound awareness of the limits to the field’s powers and abilities — a rite of passage for all prodigies — development institutions appeared to try to outrun these limitations through ever-increasing technification.

The issue-attention cycles identified by Stoian and Donovan may represent a new, more frenetic and self-defeating iteration of this discomfort with uncertainty. If so, Value Chain Development and the Poor serves as an urgent call for development institutions and practitioners to make peace with the messiness of their vocation. As Hirschman observed decades ago, only by embracing the uncertainty and art inherent in development work can its students and practitioners further the enormously complex scientific understanding of the endeavor, and, crucially, generate broad and lasting social change.

The eBook is available for free (Open Access):
Value Chain Development and the Poor: Promise, delivery, and opportunities for impact at scale

Cover image: A researcher from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) demonstrates the use of a farming app in the field. (Photo: C. De Bode/CGIAR)

Maize and wheat fields at the El Batán experimental station. (Photo: CIMMYT/Alfonso Cortés)

Scientific opportunities and challenges

Written by Emma Orchardson on November 20, 2020. Posted in Blogs.

The first meetings of the Accelerating Genetic Gains in Maize and Wheat for Improved Livelihoods (AGG) wheat and maize science and technical steering committees — WSC and MSC, respectively — took place virtually on 25^th and 28^th September.

Researchers from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) sit on both committees. In the WSC they are joined by wheat experts from national agricultural research systems (NARS) in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya, India, and Nepal; and from Angus Wheat Consultants, the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO), HarvestPlus, Kansas State University and the Roslin Institute.

Similarly, the MSC includes maize experts from NARS in Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya and Zambia; and from Corteva, the Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research (FFAR), the International Institute for Tropical Agriculture (IITA), SeedCo, Syngenta, the University of Queensland, and the US Agency for International Development (USAID).

During the meetings, attendees discussed scientific challenges and opportunities for AGG, and developed specific recommendations pertaining to key topics including breeding and testing scheme optimization, effective engagement with partners and capacity development in the time of COVID-19, and seed systems and gender intentionality.

Discussion groups noted, for example, the need to address family structure in yield trials, to strengthen collaboration with national partners, and to develop effective regional on-farm testing strategies. Interestingly, most of the recommendations are applicable and valuable for both crop teams, and this is a clear example of the synergies we expect from combining maize and wheat within the AGG project.

All the recommendations will be further analyzed by the AGG teams during coming months, and project activities will be adjusted or implemented as appropriate. A brief report will be submitted to the respective STSCs prior to the second meetings of these committees, likely in late March 2021.

A farmer takes maize grain to a local reserve in Bangladesh. (Photo: Fahad Kaizer/FAO)

Critical reflections on COVID-19

Written by AFM Nazmul Alam on November 10, 2020. Posted in News.

The COVID-19 global health crisis has disrupted food and agricultural systems around the world, affecting food production, supply chains, trade and markets, as well as people’s livelihoods and nutrition. Following an initial assessment in May 2020, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) joined the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and other CGIAR centers to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on Bangladesh’s agri-food system.

The report shares critical reflections and lessons learned, as well as providing detailed quantitative and qualitative information on all disruption pathways and possible recovery strategies.

According to the research team, the major visible impact was the decline of food demand due to the disruption of value chain actors in the food market and income shortages, especially among low- and daily wage-earning populations. This reduced demand lead in turn to reduced prices for agricultural goods, particularly perishable food items like vegetables, livestock and fish products.

Additionally, constraints on the movement of labor led to a disruption in agricultural services, including machinery and extension services, while domestic and international trade disruptions created input shortages and lead to price volatilities which increased production costs. This increase, coupled with reductions in production and output prices, essentially wiped farmer profits.

Building back a better food system

The latest report was launched at the same time as the CGIAR COVID-19 Hub in Bangladesh, which aims to build local resilience to the effects of the pandemic and support government-led recovery initiatives. At a panel discussion presenting the results of the assessment, researchers emphasized the importance of social safety net mechanisms and food demand creation, as well as the need for strong monitoring of food systems to ensure continued availability and affordability, and early detection of any critical issues.

The discussion centered on the need for public access to trustworthy information in order to raise awareness and instill confidence in the food they consume. One key recommendation which emerged is facilitating the digitalization of farming, which looks to re-connect farmers and consumers and build the food system back better. The accelerated development of digital platforms connecting farmers to markets with contactless delivery systems can ensure the safer flow of inputs and outputs while generating a higher share of consumer money for farmers. There is also a need to explore green growth strategies for reducing food waste — the creation and distribution of improved food storage systems, for instance — and circular nutrient initiatives to better utilize food waste as feed and bio manure.

Read the full report “Second rapid assessment of food and nutrition security in the context of COVID-19 in Bangladesh, May – July 2020”

Private seed companies bag maize for selfing new maize product. (Photo: Arun Thapa/CIMMYT)

Gauging the impact of COVID-19 lockdown on farming communities and agribusinesses in Nepal

Written by Alison Doody on July 8, 2020. Posted in Features. 1 Comment on Gauging the impact of COVID-19 lockdown on farming communities and agribusinesses in Nepal

The agricultural market has been suffering since the government of Nepal imposed a lockdown from March 23, 2020 to limit the spread of COVID-19 in the country. A month after the lockdown, the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) conducted a rapid assessment survey to gauge the extent of disruptions of the lockdown on households from farming communities and agribusinesses.

As part of the Nepal Seed and Fertilizer (NSAF) project, CIMMYT researchers surveyed over 200 key stakeholders by phone from 26 project districts. These included 103 agrovet owners and 105 cooperative managers who regularly interact with farming communities and provide agricultural inputs to farmers. The respondents served more than 300,000 households.

The researchers targeted maize growing communities for the survey since the survey period coincided with the primary maize season.

Seed company staff harvesting maize during the lockdown. (Photo: Darbin Joshi/CIMMYT)

Key insights from the survey

The survey showed that access to maize seed was a major problem that farmers experienced since the majority of agrovets were not open for business and those that were partially open — around 23% — did not have much customer flow due to mobility restrictions during the lockdown.

The stock of hybrid seed was found to be less than open pollinated varieties (OPVs) in most of the domains. Due to restrictions on movement during the entire maize-planting season, many farmers must have planted OPVs or saved seeds.

Access to fertilizers such as urea, DAP and MOP was another major problem for farmers since more than half of the cooperatives and agrovets reported absence of fertilizer stock in their area. The stock of recommended pesticides to control pests such as fall armyworm was reported to be limited or out of stock at the cooperatives and agrovets.

Labor availability and use of agricultural machineries was not seen as a huge problem during the lockdown in the surveyed districts.

It was evident that food has been a priority for all household expenses. More than half of the total households mentioned that they would face food shortages if the lockdown continues beyond a month.

During the survey, around 36% of households specified cash shortages to purchase agricultural inputs, given that a month had already passed since the lockdown began in the country. The majority of the respondents reported that the farm households were managing their cash requirements by borrowing from friends and relatives, local cooperatives or selling household assets such as livestock and agricultural produces.

Most of the households said that they received food rations from local units called Palikas, while a small number of Palikas also provided subsidized seeds and facilitated transport of agricultural produce to market during the lockdown. Meanwhile, the type of support preferred by farming communities to help cope with the COVID-19 disruptions — ranging from food rations, free or subsidized seed, transportation of fertilizers and agricultural produce, and provision of credit — varied across the different domains.

The survey also assessed the effect of lockdown on agribusinesses like agrovets who are major suppliers of seed, and in a few circumstances sell fertilizer to farmers in Nepal. As the lockdown enforced restrictions on movement, farmers could not purchase inputs from agrovets even when the agrovets had some stock available in their area. About 86% of agrovets spoke of the difficulty to obtain supplies from their suppliers due to the blockage of transportation and product unavailability, thereby causing a 50-90% dip in their agribusinesses.

Immediate actions to consider

Major takeaways from this survey are as follows:

Currently, food access is a priority and households are spending more money on food. However, as and when the lockdown eases, the need for cash to buy agricultural inputs and services is likely to emerge and may require attention.
Accessing maize seed and fertilizer was a problem in many communities during the maize season. Similarly, a shortage of rice seed, particularly hybrids, can be an issue for farmers unless efforts are made right away.
To help cope with the COVID-19 disruptions, a one-size-fits-all relief package would not be effective for farming communities living in different domains. Major support should be on facilitating transport and distribution of seed and fertilizers, access to food supplies through the local government’s schemes, and provision of soft loans.
Agrovets have an important contribution as the last mile service providers and they were hit hard by the lockdown. Therefore, facilitating agrovet businesses to operate and transport seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides from suppliers to agrovet business points will be essential to restore businesses and deliver agri-inputs to farmers.

The survey findings were presented and shared with the government, private sector, development partner organizations and project staff over a virtual meeting. This report will serve as a resource for the project and various stakeholders to design their COVID-19 response and recovery strategy development and planning.

A farmer weeds a maize field in Pusa, Bihar state, India. (Photo: M. DeFreese/CIMMYT)

Concerned experts ask world leaders to head off a global food security crisis from COVID-19

Written by Mike Listman on April 15, 2020. Posted in News. 2 Comments on Concerned experts ask world leaders to head off a global food security crisis from COVID-19

Alarmed by the risk of global and regional food shortages triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, a coalition of businesses, farmers’ groups, industry, non-governmental organizations, and academia has called on world leaders urgently to maintain open trade of their surplus food products.

Published by the Food and Land Use Coalition (FOLU) on April 9, 2020, and signed by 60 experts, the call to action urges world leaders to keep food supplies flowing, specially support vulnerable people, and finance sustainable, resilient food systems.

Covered by major world media, the declaration encourages governments to treat food production, processing, and distribution as an essential sector — similar to public health care — and thus to support continued, safe, and healthy activities by farmers and others who contribute to the sector, according to Martin Kropff, director general of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and a signatory of the call to action.

“Consumers in low-income countries face the greatest threat of food insecurity,” said Kropff. “Their tenuous access to nutritious food is jeopardized when surplus food-producing nations choose to close trade as a defensive measure.”

Kropff added that many households in low-income countries depend on agriculture or related activities for their food and livelihoods. Their productivity and food security are compromised by illness or restrictions on movement or working.

“The call to action resonates with the findings of a landmark 2015 study by Lloyd’s of London,” he explained. “That work highlighted the fragility of global food systems in the event of coinciding shocks, an outcome that seems entirely possible now, given the health, cultural, and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.”

At the same time, the work of CIMMYT, other CGIAR centers, and their partners worldwide helps to stabilize food systems, according to Kropff.

“Our research outputs include high-yielding, climate-resilient crop varieties and more productive, profitable and sustainable farming methods,” he said. “These give farmers — and especially smallholders — the ingredients for more efficient and effective farming. They are grounded in reality through feedback from farmers and local partners, as well as socioeconomic studies on markets and value chains for food production, processing, and distribution.”

One-minute science: Trent Blare and blue maize products

Written by Rodrigo Ordóñez on March 4, 2020. Posted in Videos.

Some of Mexico’s favorite dishes are taking on a new hue with blue corn chips, blue tortillas or blue tamales. But should breeders, millers, processors and farmer organizations invest in expanding the production of blue maize and blue maize products? Are consumers really interested, and are they willing to pay more?

CIMMYT markets and value chain specialist Trent Blare explains, in one minute, the results of his study, which gives insight into Mexican consumers’ preferences and demand for blue maize tortillas. Consumers near Mexico City perceived blue maize tortillas to taste better and were willing to pay up to a third more to buy them for special family events or to consume them in a restaurant .