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Location: Zambia

Who benefits?

Maize post-harvest losses in smallholder farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa have been shown to result in significant costs at household and national level, making it difficult to move towards achievement of SDG2 – Zero Hunger.

Within smallholder farming systems, new grain storage technologies such as metal silos can help reduce these losses during storage. However, technologies are often introduced into systems with complex sets of relationships, which may differentially affect the ability of women and men to secure the expected benefits. This, in turn, can have a knock-on effect on adoption rates and expected outcomes.

A recent study by an international team of researchers investigated whether modern storage structures such as metal silos provide equal benefits to women and men farmers in sub-Saharan Africa, using a mixed methods approach to explore the relationships governing maize production and storage in Kenya, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe, where 1717 metal silos have been introduced through the Effective Grain Storage Project (EGSP).

The authors used random sampling to carry out quantitative surveys on metal silo owners in Kenya (124 respondents) and Malawi (100 respondents). Qualitative surveys using purposive sampling were also conducted in all four countries covering 14 ethnic groups using focus group discussions (360 respondents), key informant interviews (62 respondents), and household case studies (62 respondents). “Our aim was to understand gendered post-harvest management and storage strategies in traditional systems and to map changes when metal silos were introduced,” explain the authors.

“We hypothesized that existing gender norms might differentially influence women’s ability to benefit from the introduction of metal silos and our findings seem to indicate that this is correct. In most instances when metal silos are introduced, ownership of the grain storage facility and any benefits attached to that ownership typically switch from women to men, or men’s existing control over stored maize is deepened.”

A farmer from Embu, Kenya, demonstrates how to load maize grain into a metal silo for storage. (Photo: CIMMYT)
A farmer from Embu, Kenya, demonstrates how to load maize grain into a metal silo for storage. (Photo: CIMMYT)

Their findings highlight that roles and responsibilities regarding the ownership and management of storage structures are strongly gendered. Though there are differences between ethnic groups and countries, overall men benefit more than women from the introduction of metal silos. Ownership of a grain storage facility and the benefits attached to this ownership can switch from women to men, with women having less scope for bargaining over their rights to use the stores for their own needs and the benefit of all household members.

Many of the women interviewed suggested that this compromised their ability to access sufficient maize because men might insist on taking any grain set aside to meet their personal needs. “We did not measure how much grain is taken and whether food security is indeed negatively affected, but our research registers that women are concerned about this issue.”

The qualitative research explored whether ownership over the granary — and control over the maize stored within — changed when metal silos were purchased. In all four countries, cultural norms tend to result in men typically owning all large household assets such as land, water pumps, ox-ploughs and carts, etc. They generally make key decisions about how these assets are to be used as well. Furthermore, the income differential between women and men in male-headed households means that it is considerably more difficult for women than men to make a large purchase like a metal silo. “As a consequence of these factors, we found men were more likely to own metal silos in each country.”

There is some differentiation between ethnic groups. In Zimbabwe, for example, Zezuru women who had previously owned and managed a dura — a traditional granary — lost control over maize grain reserves when metal silos were introduced. But for Korekore women nothing changed: men had always controlled traditional storage technologies and the maize within, and they continued to do so when metal silos were introduced. These examples highlight the fact that despite the cultural differences between ethnic groups, Zimbabwean women lost out across the board when metal silos were introduced, either through losing control over storage structures, or because male ownership was not challenged.

In light of these findings, the authors argue that understanding social context is key to designing and disseminating post-harvest technologies that meet the needs and preferences of both men and women farmers in various cultural contexts.

Their results make a strong case for ensuring that agricultural policy-makers prioritize the provision of equal access to improved technologies, as this is crucial not only for supporting women to meet their individual production goals, but also for ensuring that household-level food security needs are met.

Read the full study “Do metal grain silos benefit women in Kenya, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe?” in the Journal of Stored Products Research.

Building networks and capacity

The active involvement of partners in the co-design of project and capacity building activities is key to the success of the Accelerating Genetic Gains in Maize and Wheat for Improved Livelihoods (AGG) project, led by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT). To that end, the AGG Regional Collaborative Breeding and Testing Networks launched with virtual meetings on September 14 and 15 for southern African partners, and October 28 and November 2 for eastern African partners.

In addition, the AGG team collaborated with researchers from the Excellence in Breeding (EiB) Platform on a number of capacity development webinars in October and November, on topics including Continuous Improvement for breeding processes, programs and products,  enhancing and measuring genetic gain in crop breeding, and a three-webinar series on statistical analysis for plant breeders with CIMMYT’s Biometrics and Statistics Unit.

These training events and regional meetings provided opportunities for well over 100 breeders from CIMMYT, national agricultural research systems (NARS) and seed companies to refresh their capacities to improve genetic gains, and to collectively review and discuss upcoming project activities, current issues of interest, and broader project objectives within their current regional context.

Several themes of importance to partners emerged during the network virtual meetings, for attention in future AGG activities and capacity development work.

Gender inclusion and the impact of COVID-19

Ugandan partners, including Godfrey Asea, director of the National Crops Resources Research Institute at Uganda’s National Agricultural Research Organization, and Josephine Okot, founder and managing director of Victoria Seeds, applauded the project’s emphasis on inclusion of women’s knowledge and preferences in breeding programs.

“We notice that this time there is a lot of focus on gender-inclusiveness,” remarked Asea. “I can tell you there is need for enhanced capacity building for both the private sector and research in proper gender inclusion.”

They also noted the importance of building local capacity, not just for food security but also for other value chain items like raw materials. “COVID-19 has demonstrated to all policy-makers that we cannot depend on the global supply chains,” said Okot. “How can we leverage this project if, for instance, some private sector actors want to [know] the appropriate protein-content maize for, say, animal feed?”

Godfrey Asea (R) and Daniel Bomet (L) from Uganda’s National Agricultural Research Organization (NARO) admire maize cobs on a farm in Uganda. (Photo: Joshua Masinde/CIMMYT)
Godfrey Asea (R), director of the National Crops Resources Research Institute (NaCRRI) at Uganda’s National Agricultural Research Organization (NARO), and Daniel Bomet (L), a maize breeder at NARO, admire maize cobs on a farm in Uganda. (Photo: Joshua Masinde/CIMMYT)

Demand for knowledge

NARS members in Tanzania requested increased support on how to measure or assess genetic gains, especially at the national level, to allow them to establish a baseline upon which genetic gains would be pegged for the project lifecycle.

With statistics an essential element to plant breeding — from analyzing yield trials to ranking varieties — the webinar series in Statistical Analysis for Plant Breeders was a first step towards meeting these capacity development needs.

“The idea of this webinar series was to share insights on how we can improve the breeding plans using statistical methods in an effective way,” said Juan Burgueño, the head of CIMMYT’s Biometrics and Statistics Unit. “The training offered both theory and hands-on experience using open-access software.”

Reaching farmers

Looking beyond breeding, meeting participants also discussed how to improve access and adoption of improved varieties among farmers.

“For a large country such as Tanzania, it is at times very hard to reach the farmers,” said Zabron Mbwaga, managing director of the Tanzania-based Beula Seed Company and Consultancy Limited. “We may have a lot of seed in the store, but how to get the farmers to adopt the newer varieties is quite difficult. This is more so when farmers tend to stick to varieties which they know well and are always reluctant to adopt the new varieties,” he explained.

“We need to put in a lot of effort to set up demonstration farms and enhance other awareness-raising activities such as radio programs so that farmers can know about the new varieties.”

This interest in working with smallholder farmers along the entire value chain was echoed by partners in southern Africa.

“Through this project, we would like to explore ways of collaborating along the whole value chain — as the Agriculture Research Council, other partners and small to medium enterprises — to make it an effective chain,” said Kingstone Mashingaidze, senior research manager at the South Africa Agricultural Research Council. “By planning together, we can identify best-fits for all activities in the value chain and ultimately benefit the smallholder farmers.”

About the AGG Regional Collaborative Breeding and Testing Networks

The AGG Regional Collaborative Breeding and Testing Networks aim to improve breeding efficiencies among partners by enabling the use of modern tools and approaches and enriching the existing network of research organizations, public and private seed companies, farmers’ organizations, non-governmental organizations and community-based organizations. It is expected that these networks will lead to increased efficiency and communications across the partnership network and within countries, improved sharing of best practices and protocols, and increased collective ownership of products for accelerated variety development and turnover.

The virtual meetings for the Regional Collaborative Breeding and Testing Network for southern Africa convened participants from Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe, while meetings for eastern Africa had participants from Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.

AGG communications staff Joshua Masinde and Shiela Chikulo contributed to this story.

Scientific opportunities and challenges

Maize and wheat fields at the El Batån experimental station. (Photo: CIMMYT/Alfonso Cortés)
Maize and wheat fields at the El Batån experimental station. (Photo: CIMMYT/Alfonso Cortés)

The first meetings of the Accelerating Genetic Gains in Maize and Wheat for Improved Livelihoods (AGG) wheat and maize science and technical steering committees — WSC and MSC, respectively — took place virtually on 25th and 28th September.

Researchers from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) sit on both committees. In the WSC they are joined by wheat experts from national agricultural research systems (NARS) in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya, India, and Nepal; and from Angus Wheat Consultants, the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO), HarvestPlus, Kansas State University and the Roslin Institute.

Similarly, the MSC includes maize experts from NARS in Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya and Zambia; and from Corteva, the Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research (FFAR), the International Institute for Tropical Agriculture (IITA), SeedCo, Syngenta, the University of Queensland, and the US Agency for International Development (USAID).

During the meetings, attendees discussed scientific challenges and opportunities for AGG, and developed specific recommendations pertaining to key topics including breeding and testing scheme optimization, effective engagement with partners and capacity development in the time of COVID-19, and seed systems and gender intentionality.

Discussion groups noted, for example, the need to address family structure in yield trials, to strengthen collaboration with national partners, and to develop effective regional on-farm testing strategies. Interestingly, most of the recommendations are applicable and valuable for both crop teams, and this is a clear example of the synergies we expect from combining maize and wheat within the AGG project.

All the recommendations will be further analyzed by the AGG teams during coming months, and project activities will be adjusted or implemented as appropriate. A brief report will be submitted to the respective STSCs prior to the second meetings of these committees, likely in late March 2021.

Wheat disease common to South America jumps to Africa

Pawan Kumar Singh, head, wheat pathology, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) says that the fast-acting and devastating fungal disease known as wheat blast was first spotted in Africa in the Zambian rainfed wheat production system in the 2017-2018 crop cycle.

Read more here: https://www.scidev.net/sub-saharan-africa/agriculture/news/wheat-disease-common-to-asia-jumps-to-africa.html

Wheat blast has made the intercontinental jump to Africa

For the first time, wheat blast, a fast-acting and devastating fungal disease, has been reported on the African continent, according to a new article published by scientists from the Zambian Agricultural Research Institute (ZARI), the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and the US Department of Agriculture – Foreign Disease Weed Science Research Unit (USDA-ARS).

Read more: https://www.rural21.com/english/scientific-world/detail/article/wheat-blast-has-made-the-intercontinental-jump-to-africa.html

Wheat blast has made the intercontinental jump to Africa

Scientists observe wheat blast in Zambia's Mpika district. (Photo: Batiseba Tembo/ZARI)
Scientists observe wheat blast in Zambia’s Mpika district. (Photo: Batiseba Tembo/ZARI)

Wheat blast, a fast-acting and devastating fungal disease, has been reported for the first time on the African continent. In an article published in the scientific journal PLoS One, a team of scientists confirmed that symptoms of wheat blast first appeared in Zambia during the 2018 rainy season, in experimental plots and small-scale farms in the Mpika district, Muchinga province.

Researchers from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), the US Department of Agriculture – Foreign Disease Weed Science Research Unit (USDA-ARS) and the Zambian Agricultural Research Institute (ZARI) participated in this study.

Wheat blast poses a serious threat to rain-fed wheat production in Zambia and raises the alarm for surrounding regions and countries on the African continent with similar environmental conditions. Worldwide, 2.5 billion consumers depend on wheat as a staple food and, in recent years, several African countries have been actively working towards reducing dependence on wheat imports.

“This presents yet another challenging biotic constraint to rain-fed wheat production in Zambia,” said Batiseba Tembo, wheat breeder at ZARI and lead scientist on the study.

A difficult diagnosis

Researchers from ZARI check for wheat blast in experimental plots. (Photo: Batiseba Tembo/ZARI)
Researchers from ZARI check for wheat blast in experimental plots. (Photo: Batiseba Tembo/ZARI)

“The first occurrence of the disease was very distressing. This happened at the spike stage, and caused significant losses,” Tembo said. “Nothing of this nature has happened before in Zambia.”

Researchers were initially confused when symptoms of the disease were first reported in the fields of Mpika. Zambia has unique agro-climatic conditions, particularly in the rainfed wheat production system, and diseases such as spot blotch and Fusarium head blight are common.

“The crop had silvery white spikes and a green canopy, resulting in shriveled grains or no grains at all
 Within the span of seven days, a whole field can be attacked,” Tembo explained. Samples were collected and analyzed in the ZARI laboratory, and suspicions grew among researchers that this may be a new disease entirely.

Tembo participated in the Basic Wheat Improvement Course at CIMMYT’s global headquarters in Mexico, where she discussed the new disease with Pawan Singh, head of Wheat Pathology at CIMMYT. Singh worked with Tembo to provide guidance and the molecular markers needed for the sample analysis in Zambia, and coordinated the analysis of the wheat disease samples at the USDA-ARS facility in Fort Detrick, Maryland, United States.

All experiments confirmed the presence of the fungus Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype Triticum (MoT), which causes the disease.

“This is a disaster which needs immediate attention,” Tembo said. “Otherwise, wheat blast has the potential to marginalize the growth of rain-fed wheat production in Zambia and may threaten wheat production in neighboring countries as well.”

Wheat blast spreads through infected seeds and crop residues, as well as by spores that can travel long distances in the air. The spread of blast within Zambia is indicated by both mechanisms of expansion.

Wheat blast has expanded rapidly since it was initially discovered in Brazil in 1985. (Map: Kai Sonder/CIMMYT)
Wheat blast has expanded rapidly since it was initially discovered in Brazil in 1985. (Map: Kai Sonder/CIMMYT)

A cause for innovation and collaboration

CIMMYT and the CGIAR Research Program on Wheat (WHEAT) are taking action on several fronts to combat wheat blast. Trainings and international courses invite participants to gain new technical skills and knowledge in blast diagnostics, treatment and mitigation strategies. WHEAT scientists and partners are also studying the genetic factors that increase resistance to the disease and developing early warning systems.

“A set of research outcomes, including the development of resistant varieties, identification of effective fungicides, agronomic measures, and new findings in the epidemiology of disease development will be helpful in mitigating wheat blast in Zambia,” Singh said.

“It is imperative that the regional and global scientific communities join hands to determine effective measures to halt further spread of this worrisome disease in Zambia and beyond,” Tembo expressed.


Read the study:

Detection and characterization of fungus (Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype Triticum) causing wheat blast disease on rain-fed grown wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in Zambia

Interview opportunities:

Pawan Kumar Singh, Senior Scientist and Head of Wheat Pathology, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT)

Batiseba Tembo, Wheat Breeder, Zambian Agricultural Research Institute (ZARI)

For more information, or to arrange interviews, contact the media team:

Rodrigo Ordóñez, Communications Manager, CIMMYT. r.ordonez@cgiar.org

Acknowledgements

Financial support for this research was provided by the Zambia Agriculture Research Institute (ZARI), the CGIAR Research Program on Wheat (WHEAT), the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR), and the US Department of Agriculture’s Agricultural Research Service (USDA-ARS). 

The Basic Wheat Training Program and Wheat Blast Training is made possible by support from investors including the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR), WHEAT, the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), Krishi Gobeshona Foundation (KGF), the Swedish Research Council (SRC) and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).

The Accelerating Genetic Gains in Maize and Wheat (AGG) project is funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, the United States Agency for International Development and the Foundation for Food and Agricultural Research (FFAR).

About CIMMYT

The International Maize and What Improvement Center (CIMMYT) is the global leader in publicly-funded maize and wheat research and related farming systems. Headquartered near Mexico City, CIMMYT works with hundreds of partners throughout the developing world to sustainably increase the productivity of maize and wheat cropping systems, thus improving global food security and reducing poverty. CIMMYT is a member of the CGIAR System and leads the CGIAR programs on Maize and Wheat and the Excellence in Breeding Platform. The Center receives support from national governments, foundations, development banks and other public and private agencies. For more information visit staging.cimmyt.org.

CIMMYT and IITA collaborate to increase adoption of conservation agriculture in southern Africa

Farmers going home for breakfast in Motoko district, Zimbabwe. (Photo: Peter Lowe/CIMMYT)
Farmers going home for breakfast in Motoko district, Zimbabwe. (Photo: Peter Lowe/CIMMYT)

The International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) recently launched a project that aims to research the drivers and barriers to adoption of conservation agriculture in southern Africa, and to develop strategies for achieving adoption and impact at scale.

The project, Understanding and Enhancing Adoption of Conservation Agriculture in Smallholder Farming Systems of Southern Africa (ACASA), will apply social and scaling science to understand the biophysical, socioeconomic, institutional, and policy drivers and barriers to the adoption of conservation agriculture technologies and practices.

The ACASA project is supported by the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (Norad) and will be implemented in Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe in collaboration with partners and farmers in the region.

The project was officially launched online on September 16, 2020. Zambia’s Minister of Agriculture, Michael Katambo, noted that it is a timely intervention, as the livelihoods and food security of smallholder farmers in southern Africa are increasingly being threatened by climate change and variability, which have led to a steady decline in the production of food staples and an increase in the number of food and nutrition-insecure people.

“It is now clear that current productivity and production levels cannot be expected to meet our requirements for food and nutrition security,” Katambo said in a speech read on his behalf by Moses Mwale, Director of the Department of Agriculture. “Conservation agriculture has a proven potential to increase and stabilize crop yields, and to support sustainable and resilient production systems and rural livelihoods.”

Proven benefits

Conservation agriculture — a farming system that promotes minimum soil disturbance, permanent soil cover and diversification of plant species — can efficiently increase agricultural productivity while reducing land degradation and improving soil health for more productive, profitable, and sustainable farming.

Substantial on-farm evidence has been generated on the agronomic and economic benefits of conservation agriculture, first introduced in the 1970s in South Africa. Consequently, donors and governments have made a lot of investments to promote and scale conservation agriculture technologies and practices among smallholder farmers in the region. Despite all these efforts, however, the adoption rate among smallholder farmers remains low.

“We should not let the low adoption of conservation agriculture discourage us. Let us use this opportunity to reflect and identify the missing link and come up with more sustainable solutions to the problem,” said the IITA Director for Southern Africa, David Chikoye.

“Although adoption of improved practices by most resource-poor farmers is primarily determined by the potential immediate benefits on crop yields, profits, risk, and livelihoods, there are a number of biophysical, socioeconomic, institutional, and policy factors that promote or hinder adoption of conservation agriculture. The project, therefore, aims to identify the adoption drivers and barriers, and to develop pathways and strategies for inclusive scaling of conservation agriculture practices,” said  Arega Alene, Agricultural Economist at IITA and leader of the ACASA project.

Christian Thierfelder, Principal  Cropping Systems Agronomist at CIMMYT, highlighted some of the bottlenecks for conservation agriculture adoption, noting they were linked more to socioeconomic and cultural factors rather than biophysical. “Conservation agriculture is a viable and proven climate-smart farming system. Future research efforts should go towards understanding farmers’ decision-making and behavioral change, as well as profitability,” Thierfelder said.

Other key partners include the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the African Conservation Tillage Network (ACT) and Centre for Coordination of Agricultural Research and Development for Southern Africa (CCARDESA).

The project launch was attended by policymakers, donors, members of national and regional conservation agriculture taskforces, national and international research institutions, universities, international development institutions, private seed companies, non-governmental organizations, and farmer organizations.


Interview opportunities:

Arega Alene, Agricultural Economist, IITA.

Christian Thierfelder, Principal  Cropping Systems Agronomist, CIMMYT

For more information, or to arrange interviews, contact the media team:

Genevieve Renard, Director of Communications, CIMMYT. g.renard@cgiar.org

Katherine Lopez, Head of Communication, IITA. k.lopez@cgiar.org

About CIMMYT:

The International Maize and What Improvement Center (CIMMYT) is the global leader in publicly-funded maize and wheat research and related farming systems. Headquartered near Mexico City, CIMMYT works with hundreds of partners throughout the developing world to sustainably increase the productivity of maize and wheat cropping systems, thus improving global food security and reducing poverty. CIMMYT is a member of the CGIAR System and leads the CGIAR programs on Maize and Wheat and the Excellence in Breeding Platform. The Center receives support from national governments, foundations, development banks and other public and private agencies. For more information visit staging.cimmyt.org.

About IITA:

The International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) is a not-for-profit institution that generates agricultural innovations to meet Africa’s most pressing challenges of hunger, malnutrition, poverty, and natural resource degradation. Working with various partners across sub-Saharan Africa, we improve livelihoods, enhance food and nutrition security, increase employment, and preserve natural resource integrity. IITA is a member of CGIAR, a global agriculture research partnership for a food-secure future.

Collaborating to accelerate genetic gains in maize and wheat

Stakeholders in the Accelerating Genetic Gains in Maize and Wheat for Improved Livelihoods (AGG) project have pledged to strengthen efforts to deliver desirable stress tolerant, nutritious and high-yielding maize and wheat varieties to smallholder farmers in a much shorter time. The alliance, comprising funders, national agricultural research systems (NARS), private seed companies, non-governmental organizations, the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and, for the maize component the International Institute for Tropical Agriculture (IITA), made these assurances during virtual events held in July and August 2020, marking the inception of the 5-year AGG project.

The initiative seeks to fast-track the development of higher-yielding, climate resilient, demand-driven, gender-responsive and nutritious seed varieties for maize and wheat, two of the world’s most important staple crops. The project is funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO), the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), and the Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research (FFAR).

Tackling current and emerging threats

Jeff Rosichan, scientific program director of the Foundation for Food and Agricultural Research (FFAR),  acknowledged the significant and ambitious aim of the project in tackling the challenges facing maize and wheat currently and in the future. “We are seeing the emergence of new pests and pathogens and viral diseases like never before. A lot of the work of this project is going to help us to tackle such challenges and to be better prepared to tackle emerging threats,” he said.

AGG builds on gains made in previous initiatives including Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa (DTMA), Improved Maize for African Soils (IMAS), Water Efficient Maize for Africa (WEMA), Stress Tolerant Maize for Africa (STMA) and Delivering Genetic Gain in Wheat (DGGW), with support from partners in 17 target countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and South Asia.

Hailu Wordofa, agricultural technology specialist at the USAID Bureau for Resilience and Food Security, underscored his expectation for CIMMYT’s global breeding program to use optimal breeding approaches and develop strong collaborative relationships with NARS partners, “from the development of product profiles to breeding, field trials and line advancement.”

Similarly, Gary Atlin, senior program officer at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation lauded the move toward stronger partnerships and greater emphasis on the CIMMYT and IITA breeding programs. “The technical capacity of partners has increased through the years. It is prudent to ensure that national partnerships continue. It is always a challenging environment, this time multiplied by the COVID-19 crisis, but through this collaboration, there is a greater scope to strengthen such partnerships even more,” he said.

Anne Wangui, Maize Seed Health Technician, demonstrates how to test maize plants for maize dwarf mosaic virus (MDMV). (Photo: Joshua
Anne Wangui, Maize Seed Health Technician, demonstrates how to test maize plants for maize dwarf mosaic virus (MDMV). (Photo: Joshua Masinde/CIMMYT)

Symbiotic partnerships with great impact

“From the NARS perspective, we are committed to doing our part as primary partners to deliver the right seed to the farmers,” said Godfrey Asea, director of the National Crops Resources Research Institute at the National Agriculture Research Organization (NARO), Uganda. “We see an opportunity to review and to use a lot of previous historical data, both in-country and regionally and to continue making improved decisions. We also reiterate our commitment and support to continuously make improvement plans in our breeding programs.”

Martin Kropff, director general of CIMMYT, recognized the tremendous impact arising from the longstanding cooperation between CIMMYT’s maize and wheat programs and national programs in countries where CIMMYT works. “A wheat study in Ethiopia showed that 90% of all the wheat grown in the country is CIMMYT-related, while an impact study for the maize program shows that 50% of the maize varieties in Africa are CIMMYT-derived. We are very proud of that – not for ourselves but for the people that we work for, the hundreds of millions of poor people and smallholder farmers who really rely on wheat and maize for their living and for their incomes,” he said.

Founder and Chief Executive Officer of East Africa-based Western Seed Company Saleem Esmail expressed optimism at the opportunities the project offers to improve livelihoods of beneficiaries. “I believe we can do this by sharing experiences and by leveraging on the impacts that this project is going to bring, from new technologies to new science approaches, particularly those that help save costs of seed production.”

He, however, observed that while the target of fast-tracking varietal turnover was great, it was a tough call, too, “because farmers are very risk averse and to change their habits requires a great deal of effort.”

On his part, director of Crop Research at the Oromia Agricultural Research Institute (OARI) in Ethiopia Tesfaye Letta revealed that from collaborative research work undertaken with CIMMYT, the institute has had access to better-quality varieties especially for wheat (bread and durum). These have helped millions of farmers to improve their productivity even as Ethiopia aims for wheat self-sufficiency by expanding wheat production under irrigation.

“We expect more support, from identifying wheat germplasm suitable for irrigation, developing disease resistant varieties and multiplying a sufficient quantity of early generation seed, to applying appropriate agronomic practices for yield improvement and organizing exposure field visits for farmers and experts,” he said.

Challenges and opportunities in a time of crisis

Alan Tollervey, head of agriculture research at Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) and the UK representative to the CGIAR System Council, emphasized the need for continued investment in agricultural research to build a resilient food system that can cope with the demands and pressures of the coming decades. This way, organizations such as CIMMYT and its partners can adequately deliver products that are relevant not only to the immediate demands of poor farmers in developing countries – and the global demand for food generally – but also to address foreseen threats.

“We are at a time of intense pressure on budgets, and that is when projects are most successful, most relevant to the objectives of any organization, and most able to demonstrate a track record of delivery. CIMMYT has a long track history of being able to respond to rapidly emerging threats,” he said.

Felister Makini, the deputy director general for crops at the Kenya Agricultural Research Organization (KALRO) lauded the fact that AGG not only brings together maize and wheat breeding and optimization tools and technologies, but also considers gender and socioeconomic insights, “which will be crucial to our envisioned strategy to achieve socioeconomic change.”

Zambia Agriculture Research Organization (ZARI) maize breeder Mwansa Kabamba noted that the inclusion of extension workers will help to get buy-in from farmers especially as far as helping with adoption of the improved varieties is concerned.

In its lifecycle, the AGG project aims to reduce the breeding cycles for both maize and wheat from 5-7 years currently to 3-4 years. By 2024, at least 150,000 metric tons of certified maize seed is expected to be produced, adopted by 10 million households, planted on 6 million hectares and benefit 64 million people. It also seeks to serve over 30 million households engaged in wheat farming the target countries.

Cover photo: CIMMYT researcher Demewoz Negera at the Ambo Research Center in Ethiopia. (Photo: Peter Lowe/CIMMYT)

Reaching women with improved maize and wheat

By 2050, global demand for wheat is predicted to increase by 50 percent from today’s levels and demand for maize is expected to double. Meanwhile, these profoundly important and loved crops bear incredible risks from emerging pests and diseases, diminishing water resources, limited available land and unstable weather conditions – with climate change as a constant pressure exacerbating all these stresses.

Accelerating Genetic Gains in Maize and Wheat for Improved Livelihoods (AGG) is a new 5-year project led by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) that brings together partners in the global science community and in national agricultural research and extension systems to accelerate the development of higher-yielding varieties of maize and wheat.

Funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and the Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research (FFAR), AGG fuses innovative methods to sustainably and inclusively improve breeding efficiency and precision to produce seed varieties that are climate-resilient, pest- and disease-resistant, highly nutritious, and targeted to farmers’ specific needs.

AGG seeks to respond to the intersection of the climate emergency and gender through gender-intentional product profiles for its improved seed varieties and gender-intentional seed delivery pathways.

AGG will take into account the needs and preferences of female farmers when developing the product profiles for improved varieties of wheat and maize. This will be informed by gender-disaggregated data collection on current varieties and preferred characteristics and traits, systematic on-farm testing in target regions, and training of scientists and technicians.

Farmer Agnes Sendeza harvests maize cobs in Malawi. (Photo: Peter Lowe/CIMMYT)
Farmer Agnes Sendeza harvests maize cobs in Malawi. (Photo: Peter Lowe/CIMMYT)

To encourage female farmers to take up climate-resilient improved seeds, AGG will seek to understand the pathways by which women receive information and improved seed and the external dynamics that affect this access and will use this information to create gender-intentional solutions for increasing varietal adoption and turnover.

“Until recently, investments in seed improvement work have not actively looked in this area,” said Olaf Erenstein, Director of CIMMYT’s Socioeconomics Program at a virtual inception meeting for the project in late August 2020. Now, “it has been built in as a primary objective of AGG to focus on [
] strengthening gender-intentional seed delivery systems so that we ensure a faster varietal turnover and higher adoption levels in the respective target areas.”

In the first year of the initiative, the researchers will take a deep dive into the national- and state-level frameworks and policies that might enable or influence the delivery of these new varieties to both female and male farmers. They will analyze this delivery system by mapping the seed delivery paths and studying the diverse factors that impact seed demand. By understanding their respective roles, practices, and of course, the strengths and weaknesses of the system, the researchers can diagnose issues in the delivery chain and respond accordingly.

Once this important scoping step is complete, the team will design a research plan for the following years to understand and influence the seed information networks and seed acquisition. It will be critical in this step to identify some of the challenges and opportunities on a broad scale, while also accounting for the related intra-household decision-making dynamics that could affect access to and uptake of these improved seed varieties.

“It is a primary objective of AGG to ensure gender intentionality,” said Kevin Pixley, Director of CIMMYT’s Genetic Resources Program and AGG project leader. “Often women do not have access to not only inputs but also information, and in the AGG project we are seeking to help close those gaps.”

Cover photo: Farmers evaluate traits of wheat varieties, Ethiopia. (Photo: Jeske van de Gevel/Bioversity International)

New project to ramp up genetic gains in maize for better livelihoods

Drought tolerant maize route out of poverty for community-based seed producer, Kenya. (Photo: Anne Wangalachi/CIMMYT)
Drought tolerant maize route out of poverty for community-based seed producer, Kenya. (Photo: Anne Wangalachi/CIMMYT)

As plant pests and diseases continue to evolve, with stresses like drought and heat intensifying, a major priority for breeders and partners is developing better stress tolerant and higher yielding varieties faster and more cost effectively.

A new project, Accelerating Genetic Gains in Maize and Wheat for Improved Livelihoods (AGG), seeks to achieve these results by speeding up genetic gains in maize and wheat breeding to deliver improved, stress resilient, nutritious seed to smallholders in 13 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and four in South Asia. The 5-year AGG project is funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the UK Department for International Development (DFID), the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), and the Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research (FFAR).

The maize component of the project brings together diverse partners, including the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) as co-implementers; national agricultural research systems (NARS); and small and medium-sized (SME) seed companies.

Ambitious targets

At the inception meeting of the maize component of AGG on July 10, 2020, project leaders, partners and funders lauded the ambitious targets that aim to bolster the resilience and better the livelihoods, food and nutritional security of millions of smallholder farmers in SSA. At least 150,000 metric tons of certified seed is expected to be produced, adopted by 10 million households, planted on 6 million hectares by 2024 and benefiting 64 million people.

“We are developing climate resilient, nutritious, efficient, productive maize varieties for the farming community in sub-Saharan Africa. We will continue to work closely with our partners to develop product profiles, which are centered on the varieties that are really needed,” said CIMMYT Interim Deputy Director for Research Kevin Pixley.

AGG draws a solid foundation from previous projects such as Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa (DTMA), Improved Maize for Africa Soils (IMAS), Water Efficient Maize for Africa (WEMA) and Stress Tolerant Maize for Africa (STMA). Several high-yielding maize varieties that tolerate and/or resist diseases such as maize lethal necrosis (MLN), gray leaf spot (GLS), northern corn leaf blight, maize streak virus (MSV), turcicum leaf blight (TLB) and are drought-tolerant (DT), were developed and released to farmers across SSA. Varieties with nutritional traits such as nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) and quality protein maize (QPM) were also developed in the preceding initiatives.

Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa (DTMA) project monitoring and evaluation takes place in Tanzania. (Photo: Florence Sipalla/CIMMYT)
Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa (DTMA) project monitoring and evaluation takes place in Tanzania. (Photo: Florence Sipalla/CIMMYT)

A matter of “life or death”

“When farmers are confronted by aggressive farming challenges, they want products that address those challenges at the earliest opportunity. Waiting for years could mean the difference between life and death,” remarked David Chikoye, the director of Southern Africa Hub at IITA.

A key focus of AGG is to incorporate gender-intentionality – special attention to the needs of women farmers and consumers – from the traits bred into new varieties, through the communication and technology deployment strategies.

“AGG provides an excellent opportunity to reorient our maize breeding, seed scaling and delivery strategies for greater impact on the livelihoods of smallholder farmers, especially women and the disadvantaged communities that are not well reached so far,” said B.M. Prasanna, director of CIMMYT’s Global Maize Program and the CGIAR Research Program on Maize. “Our vision is to accelerate genetic gains to 1.5-2 percent annually across different breeding pipelines in the 13 participating countries in SSA and to reach over 10 million households with improved varieties.”

AGG will strengthen the capacity of partners to achieve and sustain accelerated variety replacement — or turnover — and increase genetic gains in farmers’ fields.

Old vs new

Many improved varieties have been released in the past decade. However, the turnover of old and obsolete varieties with new and improved ones is not happening as quickly as anticipated.

“We are producing good products and getting them out, but not at the speed that farmers need. How do we make it possible and profitable for seed companies to quickly introduce new hybrids?” posed Gary Atlin, program officer at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. “We need to move towards a breeding and seed system where we know that we can develop a new product in 4 or 5 years and then get it to the farmers much more quickly. This is a complex problem.”

To enhance AGG’s ability to identify new products that perform well for farmers under their challenging circumstances, on-farm testing will be scaled up significantly.

Guest of honor, Ethiopia’s Minister of State for Agriculture Mandefro Nigussie, lauded CIMMYT’s support in improving the resilience and productivity of maize and wheat in the country. He observed that this has helped improve maize productivity in Ethiopia from around 2 tons/ha to about 4 tons/ha over the past two decades.

“We consider such a huge accomplishment as a combination of efforts in germplasm development and breeding efforts of CIMMYT and the Ethiopian national programs. That partnership will flourish further in this new project,” he said.

Accelerating Genetic Gains in Maize and Wheat (AGG)

Accelerating Genetic Gains in Maize and Wheat (AGG)

Accelerating Genetic Gains in Maize and Wheat (AGG), a project led by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), brings together partners in the global science community and in national agricultural research and extension systems to accelerate the development of higher-yielding varieties of maize and wheat — two of the world’s most important staple crops.

Specifically focusing on supporting smallholder farmers in low- and middle-income countries, the project uses innovative methods that improve breeding efficiency and precision to produce varieties that are climate-resilient, pest- and disease-resistant, and highly nutritious, targeted to farmers’ specific needs.

The maize component of the project serves 13 target countries: Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe in eastern and southern Africa; and Benin, Ghana, Mali, and Nigeria in West Africa. The wheat component of the project serves six countries: Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan in South Asia; and Ethiopia and Kenya in sub-Saharan Africa.

This project builds on the impact of the Delivering Genetic Gain in Wheat (DGGW) and Stress Tolerant Maize for Africa (STMA) projects.

Objectives

The project aims to accelerate the development and delivery of more productive, climate-resilient, gender-responsive, market-demanded, and nutritious maize and wheat varieties in support of sustainable agricultural transformation in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.

To encourage adoption of new varieties, the project works to improve equitable access, especially by women, to seed and information, as well as capacity building in breeding, disease surveillance, and seed marketing.

Funders

Project funding is provided by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, the United States Agency for International Development and the Foundation for Food and Agricultural Research (FFAR).

Key partners

The primary partners for this project are the national agricultural research systems in the project target countries and, for the maize component, the International Institute for Tropical Agriculture (IITA) and small and medium enterprise (SME) seed companies.

Scientific and technical steering committees

We are grateful to our excellent maize and wheat scientific and technical steering committees for their suggestions and thoughtful question on key issues for the success of AGG. Read about the recommendations from the maize steering committee here and the wheat steering committee here.

Year 1 Executive Summary

In its first year of operation, AGG has made great strides in collaboration with our national partners towards the project goals –despite the unprecedented challenges of working through a global pandemic. For specific milestones achieved, we invite you to review our AGG Year 1 Executive Summary and Impact Report (PDF).

Year 2 Executive Summary

AGG has made progress towards all outcomes. Our scientists are implementing substantial modifications to breeding targets and schemes. AGG is also in a continuous improvement process for the partnership modalities, pursuing co-ownership and co-implementation that builds the capacities of all involved. For specific milestones achieved, we invite you to review our AGG Year 2 Executive Summary and Impact Report (PDF).

CIMMYT’s adult plant resistance breeding strategy

Download a summary of CIMMYT’s breeding strategy for adult plant resistance (PDF).

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Biofortified Maize for Improved Human Nutrition

The Biofortified Maize for Improved Human Nutrition project conducts field research both at CIMMYT and with partners on breeding for increased pro-vitamin A and Zinc content in both Africa and Latin America. The project grant is renewed annually and has been in operation since 2004.

Key activities include supporting early and mid-late product development, evaluation and release in Mexico and target countries in southern Africa, food science and retention studies. Molecular breeding and biochemical analysis are key components for successful breeding, and the project also involves technical backstopping for partners in both regions.

Objectives

  • Conduct field research on breeding for increased pro-vitamin A for target countries in Africa
  • Conduct field research on breeding for increased Zinc for product evaluation and release
  • Conduct essential research to deploy analytical tools and marker assisted selection or genomic selection methods in micronutrient breeding work
  • Facilitate the dissemination, promotion and consumption of biofortified crops

Biofortified Crop Project Reaches Refugees in Zambia

The Mutwales farm a small plot of land in the camp, growing primarily cassava and maize for food. They are also one of the 105 refugee farming families participating in an initiative during the 2019/2020 growing season to help them cultivate nutritious, vitamin A-biofortified orange maize, which was developed by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) in partnership with HarvestPlus.

Read more here: https://www.ipsnews.net/2020/02/biofortified-crop-project-reaches-refugees-zambia/

‘Sharing’ or ‘sparing’ land?

Any fifth grader is familiar with the Cretaceous-Tertiary mass extinction, which saw dinosaurs — and three quarters of all species alive at that time — disappear from Earth, probably after it was struck by a very large asteroid. However, few people are aware the planet is currently going through a similar event of an equally large magnitude: a recent report from the World Wide Fund for Nature highlighted a 60% decline in the populations of over 4,000 vertebrate species monitored globally since 1970. This time, the culprit is not an asteroid, but human beings. The biggest threat we represent to other species is also the way we meet one of our most fundamental needs: food production.

As a response, scientists, particularly ecologists, have looked for strategies to minimize trade-offs between agriculture and biodiversity. One such strategy is “land sparing,” also known as the “Borlaug effect.” It seeks to segregate production and conservation and to maximize yield on areas as small as possible, sparing land for nature. Another strategy is “land sharing” or “wildlife-friendly farming,” which seeks to integrate production and conservation in the same land units and make farming as benign as possible to biodiversity. It minimizes the use of external inputs and retains unfarmed patches on farmland.

A heated debate between proponents of land sparing and proponents of land sharing has taken place over the past 15 years. Most studies, however, have found land sparing to lead to better outcomes than land sharing, in a range of contexts. With collaborators from CIFOR, UBC and other organizations, I hypothesized that this belief was biased because researchers assessed farming through a narrow lens, only looking at calories or crop yield.

Many more people today suffer from hidden hunger, or lack of vitamins and minerals in their diets, than lack of calories. Several studies have found more diverse and nutritious diets consumed by people living in or near areas with greater tree cover as trees are a key component of biodiversity. However, most of these studies have not looked at mechanisms explaining this positive association.

Forests for food

Studying seven tropical landscapes in Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Nicaragua and Zambia, we found evidence that tree cover directly supports diets in four landscapes out of seven. This may be through the harvest of bushmeat, wild fruits, wild vegetables and other forest-sourced foods. The study further found evidence of an agroecological pathway — that forests and trees support diverse crop and livestock production through an array of ecosystem services, ultimately leading to improved diets — in five landscapes out of seven. These results clearly demonstrate that although land sparing may have the best outcomes for biodiversity, it would cut off rural households from forest products such as forest food, firewood and livestock feed. It would also cut off smallholder farms from ecosystem services provided by biodiversity, and smallholders in the tropics tend to depend more on ecosystem services than on external inputs.

In Ethiopia, previous research conducted by some of the same authors has demonstrated that multifunctional landscapes that do not qualify as land sparing nor as land sharing may host high biodiversity whilst being more productive than simpler landscapes. They are more sustainable and resilient, provide more diverse diets and produce cereals with higher nutritional content.

The debate on land sparing vs. sharing has largely remained confined to the circles of conservation ecologists and has seldom involved agricultural scientists. As a result, most studies on land sparing vs. sharing have focused on minimizing the negative impact of farming on biodiversity, instead of looking for the best compromises between agricultural production and biodiversity conservation.

To design landscapes that truly balance the needs of people and nature, it is urgent for agronomists, agricultural economists, rural sociologists and crop breeders to participate in the land sparing vs. sharing debate.

Read more:
Testing the Various Pathways Linking Forest Cover to Dietary Diversity in Tropical Landscapes

This study was made possible by funding from the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID), the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) through the project Agrarian Change in Tropical Landscapes, and by the CGIAR Research Programs on MAIZE and WHEAT.

Study calls for better understanding of fertilizer prices faced by African smallholder farmers

A farm worker applies fertilizer in a field of Staha maize for seed production at Suba Agro's Mbezi farm in Tanzania. (Photo: Peter Lowe/CIMMYT)
A farm worker applies fertilizer in a field of Staha maize for seed production at Suba Agro’s Mbezi farm in Tanzania. (Photo: Peter Lowe/CIMMYT)

Crop yields in sub-Saharan Africa are generally low. This is in large part because of low fertilizer use. A recent study of six countries in sub-Saharan Africa showed that just 35% of farmers applied fertilizer. Some possible reasons for this could be that farmers may be unaware of the efficacy of fertilizer use; or have degraded soils that do not respond to fertilizer; they may not have the cash to purchase it; or because unpredictable rainfall makes such investments risky. It may also be because local fertilizer prices make their use insufficiently profitable for many farmers.

To better understand the potential fertilizer demand in a particular location, it is important to know how crops respond to fertilizer under local conditions, but it is critical to understand crop responses in terms of economic returns. This requires information about local market prices of fertilizers and other inputs, as well as the prices that a farmer could receive from selling the crop.

While national-level fertilizer prices may be available, it is necessary to consider the extent to which prices vary within countries, reflecting transportation costs and other factors. In the absence of such data, analysis of household-level behaviors requires assumptions about the prices smallholder farmers face — assumptions which may not be valid. For example, evaluations of the returns to production technologies settings have often assumed spatially invariant input and output prices or, in other words, that all farmers in a country face the same set of prices. This is at odds with what we know about economic remoteness and the highly variable market access conditions under which African smallholders operate.

An obstacle to using empirical data on sub-national disparities in fertilizer prices is the scarcity of such data. A new study focused on the spatial discrepancies in fertilizer prices. The study compiled local market urea price in eighteen countries in sub-Saharan Africa for the period between 2010-2018 and used spatial interpolation models — using points with known values to approximate values at other unknown points — to predict local prices at locations for which no empirical data was available. It was conducted by scientists at University of California, Davis, the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). The authors note that this is the first major attempt to systematically describe the spatial variability of fertilizer prices within the target countries and test the ability to estimate the price at unsampled locations.

Predicted relative urea price (local price divided by the observed median national price) for areas with crop land in eight East African countries.
Predicted relative urea price (local price divided by the observed median national price) for areas with crop land in eight East African countries.

“Our study uncovers considerable spatial variation in fertilizer prices within African countries and gives a much more accurate representation of the economic realities faced by African smallholders than the picture suggested by using national average prices,” said Camila Bonilla Cedrez, PhD Candidate at University of California, Davis. “We show that in many countries, this variation can be predicted for unsampled locations by fitting models of prices as a function of longitude, latitude, and additional predictor variables that capture aspects of market access, demand, and environmental conditions.”

Urea prices were generally found to be more expensive in remote areas or away from large urban centers, ports of entry or blending facilities. There were some exceptions, though. In Benin, Ghana and Nigeria, prices went down when moving away from the coast, with the possible explanation being market prices in areas with higher demand are lower. In other locations, imports of fertilizer from neighboring countries with lower prices may be affecting prices in another country or region, much like political influence. Politically, well-connected villages can receive more input subsidies compared to the less connected ones.

“The performance of our price estimation methods and the simplicity of our approach suggest that large scale price mapping for rural areas is a cost-effective way to provide more useful price information for guiding policy, targeting interventions, and for enabling more realistic applied microeconomic research. For example, local price estimates could be incorporated into household-survey-based analysis of fertilizer adoption,” explained Jordan Chamberlin, CIMMYT spatial economist. “In addition, such predictive ‘price maps’ can be incorporated into targeting and planning frameworks for agricultural investments. For example, to target technology promotion efforts to the areas where those technologies are most likely to be profitable.”

Predicted relative urea price (local price divided by the observed median national price) for areas with crop land in nine West African countries.
Predicted relative urea price (local price divided by the observed median national price) for areas with crop land in nine West African countries.

“The evidence we have compiled in this paper suggests that, while investments in more comprehensive and spatially representative price data collection would be very useful, we may utilize spatial price prediction models to extend the value of existing data to better reflect local price variation through interpolation,” explained Robert J. Hijmans, professor at University of California, Davis. “Even if imperfect, such estimates almost certainly better reflect farmers’ economic realities than assumptions of spatially constant prices within a given country. We propose that spatial price estimation methods such as the ones we employ here serve for better approximating heterogeneous economic market landscapes.”

This study has illustrated new ways for incorporating spatial variation in prices into efforts to understand the profitability of agricultural technologies across rural areas in sub-Saharan Africa.  The authors suggest that an important avenue for future empirical work would be to evaluate the extent to which the subnational price variation documented is a useful explanatory factor for observed variation in smallholder fertilizer use in sub-Saharan Africa, after controlling for local agronomic responses and output prices. One way to do that may be to integrate input and output price predictions into spatial crop models, and then evaluate the degree to which modeled fertilizer use profitability predicts observed fertilizer use rates across different locations.

Read the full study:
Spatial variation in fertilizer prices in Sub-Saharan Africa