Spot blotch, caused by the fungus Biopolaris sorokiniana poses a serious threat to bread wheat production in warm and humid wheat-growing regions globally, affecting more than 25 million hectares and resulting in huge yield losses.
Chemical control approaches, including seed treatment and fungicides, have provided acceptable spot blotch control. However, their use is unaffordable to resource-poor farmers and poses a hazard to health and the environment. In addition, “abiotic stresses like heat and drought that are widely prevalent in South Asia compound the problem, making varietal genetic resistance the last resort of farmers to combat this disease,” according to Pawan Singh, Head of Wheat Pathology at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT). Therefore, one of CIMMYT’s wheat research focus areas is developing wheat varieties that carry genetic resistance to the disease.
Signs of spot blotch on wheat. (Photo: Philomin Juliana/CIMMYT)
The study’s results are positive and confirmed that:
Many advanced CIMMYT breeding lines have moderate to high resistance to spot blotch.
Resistance to the disease is conferred quantitatively by several minor genomic regions that act together in an additive manner to confer resistance.
There is an association of the 2NS translocation from the wild species Aegilops ventricosa with spot blotch resistance.
There is also an association of the spot blotch favorable alleles at the 2NS translocation, and two markers on the telomeric end of chromosome 3BS with grain yield evaluated in multiple environments, implying that selection for favorable alleles at these markers could help obtain higher grain yield and spot blotch resistance.
“Considering the persistent threat of spot blotch to resource-poor farmers in South Asia, further research and breeding efforts to improve genetic resistance to the disease, identify novel sources of resistance by screening different germplasm, and selecting for genomic regions with minor effects using selection tools like genomic selection is essential,” explained Philomin Juliana, Molecular Breeder and Quantitative Geneticist at CIMMYT.
Cover photo: Researchers evaluate wheat for spot blotch at CIMMYT’s experimental station in Agua Fría, Jiutepec, Morelos state, Mexico. (Photo: Xinyao He and Pawan Singh/CIMMYT)
Christopher Ochieng Ojiewo aims to enhance enhance varietal turnover to mitigate losses from evolving climate patterns, especially in dry areas with the poorest of the poor farmers, while addressing pest and disease complexes, and enabling public-private partnerships for enhanced seed delivery. Core to his sense of purpose is: improving productivity and profitability for smallholder farmers; gender equity; youth empowerment; nutrition security; knowledge sharing; and solving the perpetual problem of food, nutrition and income insecurity of the less privileged in developing countries. He works to establish a robust system that ensures sustainable, timely availability of and access to quality seed of dryland cereals and grain legumes at affordable prices through the participation of multiple stakeholders along the seed value chain. He is committed to gender equity as a guiding principle, considering the critical role women play in choosing legume and cereal varieties and seed sources.
Nilupa Gunaratna (right), statistician at the International Nutrition Foundation, helps a farmer and her daughter to fill in a survey form on quality protein maize (QPM) as part of the QPM Development (QPMD) project in Karatu, Tanzania. (Photo: CIMMYT)
Recently, I published the technical description of Ontology-Agnostic Metadata Schema (OIMS) in the journal Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, as part of a special issue on “Agile Data-Oriented Research Tools to Support Smallholder Farm System Transformation.”
CGIAR and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) are dedicated to providing research data information products (RDIP) in open access, following the FAIR data standards. FAIR stands for findable, accessible, interoperable and reusable. Organizations dedicated to open data have made massive progress in making data findable and accessible. A clear example is a free, open-access repository of research studies developed by CIMMYT scientists. Article 4.1.c.i. of the CGIAR data policy states that “Relevant data assets (e.g. datasets) and metadata shall be interoperable and fit for reuse.”
This is easier said than done. There are well-established standards for descriptive metadata such as the Dublin Core and the derived standard used widely across the CGIAR, aptly called CGcore, used in CIMMYT’s Dataverse research data repository. However, these standards are lacking in many domains for describing the actual content of data sets.
At best, idiosyncratic data dictionaries are developed for specific datasets, projects and sometimes even programs. Idiosyncratic data dictionaries help make data interoperable but, in many cases, require a lot of preprocessing before scientists can actually reuse the data. Having a standard for data dictionaries would be a huge leap forward, but is not likely to happen anytime soon.
The next best thing is to standardize the way that you describe data dictionaries. This was recognized by the community of practice on socioeconomic data of the CGIAR Platform for Big data in Agriculture. Over the past few years, efforts led by CIMMYT set to remedy that lack of a standard, resulting in the flexible, extensible, machine-readable, human-intelligible and ontology-agnostic metadata schema (OIMS).
The paper in the journal Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems describes a lightweight, flexible, and extensible metadata schema. It is designed to succinctly describe data collected for international agricultural research for development, facilitating interoperability. The schema is also meant to make it easier to store, retrieve and link different datasets stored in a data lake.
Agricultural research data comes to the surface
The paper discusses a need for this type of schema. Typically, agricultural research data comes in different formats and from different sources. For example, we can have structured surveys, semi-structured surveys, mobile phone records and satellite data. In the case of socioeconomic data, it can be particularly “messy.” To facilitate interoperability, we need to find methods to describe these datasets, which are machine readable — or actionable.
There have been other attempts to provide a standardized way to make data interoperable. Past approaches have been comprehensive but cumbersome. That could be the reason why they are typically only used by larger-scale projects. OIMS provides a framework that can be used by all data managers and scientists to enhance the interoperability for research data to ensure the data can be reused with much more ease.
The paper provides a detailed description of OIMS, including: the metadata schema, which describes the data dictionary; and the self-describing metadata, which describes the fields in the metadata. The paper then demonstrates the utility of this schema using a small segment of a household survey.
This paper presents an internally consistent approach to providing metadata for data files when standards are missing. It is flexible and extensible, so it will not be obsolete before it is implemented at scale. The approach is based on the concept of data lakes where data is stored as is. To ensure that data lakes do not become swamps, metadata is indispensable. The OIMS metadata schema approach can help to standardize the description of metadata and thus can be considered the fishing gear to extract data from the data lake.
As part of the on-going work started by the community of practice on socioeconomic data of the CGIAR Platform for Big Data in Agriculture, implementation of the OIMS metadata schema approach on datasets that can create indicators highlighted in the 100Q approach with linkages to the nascent socioeconomic ontology SEOnt is envisaged. This will provide datasets with enhanced interoperability.
With more and more datasets using the OIMS approach in the near future, it will become possible to turn what is currently a socioeconomic data swamp into a data lake. This will provide timely actionable information to support agri-food systems transformation — helping smallholders make a living while staying within planetary boundaries.
Implementing OIMS in practice requires data managers and scientists that collect the data to actively engage in providing the relevant metadata. As mentioned before, some of the metadata can be gleaned from the software solutions the scientists use already. As these are structured metadata, they can be extracted by machines. Often it does require curation by the scientist involved, especially when the software solution does not provide key information that the scientist has at hand but is not documented in a machine-readable way.
A recent portrait of Rosalind Morris. (Photo: Courtesy)
Rosalind Morris, a celebrated wheat cytogeneticist and professor, peacefully passed away on March 26, 2022, just a few weeks shy of her 102nd birthday. Morris fought a long battle with cancer in her 90s and, most recently, an infection of COVID-19, which proved fatal to her health.
According to her wishes, there was no funeral or memorial service. Morris’s body was cremated, and her ashes deposited in her family’s plot in Ontario, Canada.
Born in Ruthin, United Kingdom, in 1920 to schoolteacher parents, Morris pursued studies in agricultural sciences at the University of Guelph and earned a bachelor’s degree in horticulture. Morris would later earn a Ph.D. from Cornell University’s department of plant breeding, becoming one of the first two women to accomplish this feat, along with Leona Schnell.
Morris dedicated her life and career to understanding and developing wheat genes.
A pioneer in agricultural science and one of the first women scientists of her time, Morris dedicated her life and career to understanding and developing wheat genes. Her contributions include the development of wheat genetic stocks, or wheat populations generated for genetic studies, with far-reaching impact globally in explaining wheat genetics. The work of Morris provided a premier resource base for the emerging field of functional genomics, which explores how DNA is translated into complex information in a cell.
During World War II, Morris’s deep concern over the effects of atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki led her to study and experiment with the effects of X-rays and thermal neutrons on crop plants. In 1979, Morris became the first woman honored as a fellow of the American Society of Agronomy.
While being an acclaimed scientist internationally, Morris was also known for her passion for teaching. In the same year Morris earned her doctoral degree from Cornell University, she was hired as the first female faculty member in the agronomy department at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL) in 1947. This career would last 43 years: first as an assistant professor in 1947, becoming a professor in 1958 and remaining in that role until 1990, when she gained the title of emeritus professor of plant cytogenetics.
Morris was a trailblazer for women in agronomy during a point in history when few women were given the opportunity to pursue a career in the sciences. Morris is remembered by her peers not only for her lifelong contribution to agricultural sciences but also her immense kindness and patience.
Wheat fields in Kostanay, Kazakhstan. (Photo: M. DeFreese/CIMMYT)
A panel of experts convened by the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars on April 13, 2022, discussed the effects that the Russia-Ukraine war could have on global supply chains of critical resources including staple crops, oil and natural gas, and strategic minerals.
Bram Govaerts, director general of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), joined three experts representing a security consulting firm, a mining investment company and the academic sector. They analyzed the complex ramifications of the armed conflict and put forward policy recommendations to mitigate its impact on global food and energy systems.
“We have immediate action to take in order to boost the production of crops with fewer resources available, such as fertilizers,” Govaerts said, reflecting on how to help food-insecure countries in the Middle East and North Africa that import most of their wheat supplies from the Black Sea region. “We also need to look at where we are going to be supplied with alternate sources,” he added.
Govaerts took this opportunity to position Agriculture for Peace, the CIMMYT-led call for secure, stable and long-term investment in agricultural research for development, to transform global food systems by shifting their focus from efficiency to resilience.
“We’ll never get back all the diversity we had before, but the diversity we need is out there,” says Matthew Reynolds, head of wheat physiology at CIMMYT.
Agriculture is one of the five main greenhouse gas-emitting sectors where innovations can be found to reach net zero emissions, according to the new documentary and ten-part miniseries “Solving for Zero: The Search for Climate Innovation.” The documentary tells the stories of scientists and innovators racing to develop solutions such as low-carbon cement, wind-powered global transportation, fusion electricity generation and sand that dissolves carbon in the oceans.
Three CGIAR scientists are featured in the documentary, speaking about the contributions being made by agricultural research.
Whereas all sectors of the global economy must contribute to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 to prevent the worse effects of climate change, agricultural innovations are needed by farmers at the front line of climate change today.
CIMMYT breeder Yoseph Beyene spoke to filmmakers about the use of molecular breeding to predict yield potential. (Image: Wondrium.com)
Breeding climate-smart crops
“Climate change has been a great disaster to us. Day by day it’s getting worse,” said Veronica Dungey, a maize farmer in Kenya interviewed for the documentary.
Around the world, 200 million people depend on maize for their livelihood, while 90% of farmers in Africa are smallholder farmers dependent on rainfall, and facing drought, heatwaves, floods, pests and disease related to climate change. According to CGIAR, agriculture must deliver 60% more food by 2050, but without new technologies, each 1°C of warming will reduce production by 5%.
“Seed is basic to everything. The whole family is dependent on the produce from the farm,” explained Yoseph Beyene, Regional Maize Breeding Coordinator for Africa and Maize Breeder for Eastern Africa at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT). As a child in a smallholder farming family with no access to improved seeds, Beyene learned the importance of selecting the right seed from year to year. It was at high school that Beyene was shown the difference between improved varieties and the locally-grown seed, and decided to pursue a career as a crop breeder.
Today, the CIMMYT maize program has released 200 hybrid maize varieties adapted for drought conditions in sub-Saharan Africa, called hybrids because they combine maize lines selected to express important traits over several generations. Alongside other CGIAR Research Centers, CIMMYT continues to innovate with accelerated breeding approaches to benefit smallholder farmers.
“Currently we use two kinds of breeding. One is conventional breeding, and another one is molecular breeding to accelerate variety development. In conventional breeding you have to evaluate the hybrid in the field,” Beyene said. “Using molecular markers, instead of phenotypic evaluation in the field, we are evaluating the genetic material of a particular line. We can predict based on marker data which new material is potentially good for yield.”
Such innovations are necessary considering the speed and the complexity of challenges faced by smallholder farmers due climate change, which now includes fall armyworm. “Fall armyworm is a recent pest in the tropics and has affected a lot of countries,” said Moses Siambi, CIMMYT Regional Representative for Africa. “Increased temperatures have a direct impact on maize production because of the combination of temperature of humidity, and then you have these high insect populations that lead to low yield.”
Resistance to fall armyworm is now included in new CIMMYT maize hybrids alongside many other traits such as yield, nutrition, and multiple environmental and disease resistances.
Ana María Loboguerrero, Research Director for Climate Action at the Alliance of Bioversity and CIAT, spoke about CGIAR’s community-focused climate work. (Image: Wondrium.com)
Building on CGIAR’s climate legacy
Ana María Loboguerrero, Research Director for Climate Action at the Alliance of Bioversity International and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), told the filmmakers about CGIAR’s community-focused climate work, which includes Climate-Smart Villages and Valleys. Launched in 2009, these ongoing projects span the global South and effectively bridge the gap between innovation, research and farmers living with the climate crisis at their doorsteps.
“Technological innovations are critical to food system transformation,” said Loboguerrero, who was a principal researcher for the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). “But if local contexts are not considered, even the best innovations may fail because they do not respond to beneficiaries needs.”
CCAFS’s impressive legacy — in research, influencing policy and informing $3.5 billion of climate-smart investments, among many achievements — is now being built upon by a new CGIAR portfolio of initiatives. Several initiatives focus on building systemic resilience against climate and scaling up climate action started by CCAFS that will contribute to a net-zero carbon future.
Loboguerrero pointed to other innovations that were adopted because they addressed local needs and were culturally appropriate. These include the uptake of new varieties of wheat, maize, rice and beans developed by CGIAR Research Centers. Taste, color, texture, cooking time and market demand are critical to the success of new varieties. Being drought-resistant or flood-tolerant is not enough.
Local Technical Agroclimatic Committees, another CCAFS innovation that is currently implemented in 11 countries across Latin America, effectively delivers weather information in agrarian communities across the tropics. Local farmers lead these committees to receive and disseminate weather information to better plan when they sow their seeds. “This success would not have been possible if scientists hadn’t gotten out of their labs to collaborate with producers in the field,” Loboguerrero said.
Climate adaptation solutions
Across CGIAR, which represents 13 Research Centers and Alliances, and a network of national and private sector partners, the goal is to provide climate adaptation solutions to 500 million small-scale farmers around the world by 2030. This work also covers reducing agricultural emissions, environmental impacts and even the possibility of capturing carbon while improving soil health.
Interested in learning more? The documentary “Solving for Zero: The Search for Climate Innovation” is available at Wondrium.com alongside a 10-part miniseries exploring the ongoing effort to address climate change.
As climate breakdown and worldwide conflict continue to place the food system at risk, seed banks from the Arctic to Lebanon try to safeguard biodiversity.
As agricultural researchers around the world explore ways to avert what is quickly becoming the worst global food crisis in 50 years, it is imperative to shift the focus from efficient food value chains to resilient food systems.
This was one of the key messages Bram Govaerts, director general of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) shared with global and local audiences at a series of lectures and presentations at Cornell University the week of March 14, 2022.
Speaking as an Andrew White Professor-at-Large lecturer and lifetime Cornell faculty member, Govaerts advocated for ratcheting up investment in agricultural research and development. Not only this is necessary to avert the looming humanitarian catastrophe, he argued, but also to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic and rebuild a more peaceful, resilient and food-secure world.
“Countries that are ill-prepared to absorb a global food shock are now facing similar conditions to those that triggered the Arab Spring a decade ago — possibly even worse,” Govaerts said.
“Today, humanity faces an existential challenge fueled by conflict, environmental degradation and climate change that urges a transformational response in the way that we produce, process, distribute and consume food,” he said.
“We need to get climate change out of agriculture, and agriculture out of climate change,” he said, advocating for climate change as the driver of research and innovation, and calling for investment in transforming from efficiency to resilience.
Referencing the Ukraine crisis and its looming food security implications, he reminded attendees that we can all be inspired by Norman Borlaug’s accomplishments applying science to agriculture, and move quickly, together, to avert disaster.
“We need the same bold thinking, to do something before it’s too late,” Govaerts told the audience, which included nearly 200 online attendees and a full auditorium at Cornell’s College of Agricultural and Life Sciences.
“There is no ‘other’ team that is going to do it for us. This is the meeting. This is the team.”
CIMMYT implements integrated agri-food systems initiatives to improve maize and wheat seeds, farming practices and technologies to increase yields sustainably with support from governments, philanthropists and farmers in more than 40 countries.
In addition, along with the Nobel Peace Center and the Governments of Mexico and Norway, CIMMYT launched the Agriculture for Peace call in 2020 to mobilize funding for agricultural research and extension services to help deliver much-needed global food systems transformation.
Cover photo: Maize and other food crops on sale at Ijaye market, Oyo State, Nigeria. (Photo: Adebayo O./IITA)
The war in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia will disrupt wheat supply chains, fertilizer exports and other components of food systems. Their combined effect, along with other factors, could unchain a major food security crisis as well as increased inequality.
Explore our analysis and coverage on major media outlets and journals. To get in touch with our experts, please contact the media team.
CIMMYT scientists have also made available a summary of key facts and figures about the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on wheat supply (PowerPoint, 32MB): changing patterns of consumption and effect on food prices, geographic export supply concentration, global wheat imports, and specific vulnerabilities particularly in the Global South.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict will cause massive disruptions to global wheat supply and food security. Agricultural research investments are the basis of resilient agri-food systems and a food-secure future.
War highlights the fragility of the global food supply — sustained investment is needed to feed the world in a changing climate, Alison Bentley explains on Nature.
A new Bloomberg op-ed urges nations to steer more money to organizations like CIMMYT that are advancing crucial research on how to grow more resilient wheat and maize crops in regions that are becoming steadily less arable.
The war in Ukraine, coupled with weather-related disruptions in the world’s major grain-producing regions, could unleash unbearable humanitarian consequences, civil unrest, and major financial losses worldwide, say Sharon E. Burke (Ecospherics) and Bram Govaerts (CIMMYT) on The Boston Globe.
The paper “Enlisting wild grass genes to combat nitrification in wheat farming: A nature-based solution” received the 2021 Cozzarelli Prize, which recognizes outstanding articles published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS). The paper was published as a joint research collaboration of Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences (JIRCAS), the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), the University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU) and Nihon University.
The study identifies of a chromosomal region that regulates the biological nitrification inhibition (BNI) ability of wheat grass (Leymus racemosus), a wild relative of wheat. It also outlines the development of the world’s first BNI-enhanced wheat, through intergeneric crossing with a high-yielding wheat cultivar.
This research result is expected to contribute to the prevention of nitrogen pollution that leads to water pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, reducing the use of nitrogen fertilizer while maintaining productivity.
Best of the year
PNAS is one of the most cited scientific journals in the world, publishing more than 3,000 papers per year on all aspects of science. A total of 3,476 papers were published in 2021, covering six fields: Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Biological Sciences, Engineering and Applied Sciences, Biomedical Sciences, Behavioral and Social Sciences, and Applied Biological, Agricultural and Environmental Sciences.
The Cozzarelli Prize was established in 2005 as the PNAS Paper of the Year Prize and renamed in 2007 to honor late editor-in-chief Nicholas R. Cozzarelli. It is awarded yearly by the journal’s Editorial Board to one paper from each field reflecting scientific excellence and originality. The BNI research paper received the award in the category of Applied Biological, Agricultural, and Environmental Sciences.
The awards ceremony will be held online on May 1, 2022, and a video introducing the results of this research will be available.
CIMMYT has collaborated with JIRCAS on BNI-enhanced wheat research since 2009, with funding from Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. CIMMYT is one of the founding members of the BNI Consortium, established in 2015.
The CGIAR Research Programs on Wheat (WHEAT) and Maize (MAIZE) co-funded BNI research since 2014 and 2019 respectively, until their conclusion at the end of 2021.
BNI research has been positioned in the “Measures for achievement of Decarbonization and Resilience with Innovation (MeaDRI)” strategy of Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, and was also selected as one of the ministry’s “Top 10 agricultural technology news for 2021.”
Jai Prakash Rajaram (left) receives the Padma Bhushan Award on behalf of his late father, Sanjaya Rajaram, from the President of India, Ram Nath Kovind. (Photo: Government of India)
The President of India, Ram Nath Kovind, presented the prestigious Padma Bhushan Award for Science & Engineering (Posthumous) to the relatives of Sanjaya Rajaram. The award was received by Rajaram’s son and daughter, Jaiprakash Rajaram and Sheila Rajaram, at a ceremony in New Delhi, India, on March 28, 2022.
The Padma Awards, instituted in 1954, are one of India’s highest civilian honors. Announced annually on the eve of Republic Day, January 26, they are given in three categories: Padma Vipbhushan, for outstanding and distinguished service; Padma Bhushan, for distinguished service of the highest order; and Padma Shri, for distinguished service.
The award seeks to recognize achievement in all fields of activities and disciplines involving a public service item.
Padma Bhushan Award diploma and medal. (Photo: Courtesy of Jai Prakash Rajaram)
Sanjaya Rajaram, who passed away in 2021, was a 2014 World Food Prize laureate and former wheat breeder and Director of the Wheat Program at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT).
Among his many accomplishments, he personally oversaw the development of nearly 500 high-yielding and disease-resistant wheat varieties. These varieties, which have been grown on at least 58 million hectares in over 50 countries, increased global wheat production by more than 200 million tons, benefiting hundreds of millions of resource-poor people who rely on wheat for their diets and livelihoods.
The war in Ukraine, coupled with weather-related disruptions in the world’s major grain-producing regions, could unleash unbearable waves of displacement, humanitarian consequences, civil unrest, major financial losses worldwide, and geopolitical fragility, says Bram Govaerts, DG of CIMMYT, in a Boston Globe op-ed.
Mature wheat spikes. (Photo: Alfonso Cortés/CIMMYT)
The impacts of the Ukraine crisis are likely to reverberate over months, if not years, to come. If the reductions in wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine are as severe as anticipated, global supplies of wheat will be seriously constrained. If a major reduction in fertilizer exports comes to pass, the resulting drop in global productivity will tighten global markets for wheat, other grains and alternate food sources — leaving vulnerable people all over the world facing higher food prices, hunger and malnutrition.
These massive disruptions will erode modest progress made toward gender equality, biodiversity conservation and dietary diversification. The severe impact of this single shock shows the underlying fragility and complexity of our agri-food systems. Climate change will bring many more.
The world must take essential actions to mitigate food shocks, stabilize local wheat supplies and transition toward agri-food system resilience, from the current efficiency-driven model. We call for large and sustained agricultural research investments as a foundational element of any viable, food-secure future.
From chronic challenges to food crisis conditions
Global wheat production for export is geographically concentrated, placing inherent vulnerabilities on the global system. Dominance of the wheat export trade by a relatively small number of countries makes sense under an efficiency paradigm, but it opens the door to price spikes and food-related crises. At the same time, biophysical vulnerability of major global breadbaskets is on the rise as drought and other weather extremes increase volatility in cereal yields, exports and prices.
Russia and Ukraine produce 28% of the world’s total wheat exports and Russia is a globally important source of fuel and fertilizer. With over 2.5 billion people worldwide consuming wheat-based products and wheat futures at their highest levels since 2012, disrupted exports from Russia and Ukraine would usher in substantial new pressures on global wheat markets and tremendous risks for vulnerable populations around the world.
Dependence on wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine imperils food security in lower- and middle-income countries in North Africa and the Middle East (Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Yemen), the Mediterranean (Azerbaijan, Turkey), sub-Saharan Africa (Nigeria, Sudan), Southern Asia (Bangladesh, Pakistan) and throughout Southeast Asia. Globally elevated food prices will hit hardest in those countries already struggling with food insecurity.
Layered onto the existing concentration of wheat-exporting countries and the climate-induced vulnerabilities in essential global breadbaskets, the crisis in Ukraine and trade sanctions on Russia are triggering a level of volatility that could easily overwhelm existing mitigation mechanisms. We may well see a range of negative effects over the short, medium and long term, including:
Severe food insecurity and economic impacts due to reduced global wheat supplies and price increases affecting all wheat-importing countries and humanitarian agencies.
Diminished global grain productivity due to fertilizer supply limitations and price escalation, especially in low-income, fertilizer-import-dependent countries.
Higher food prices and expanded global hunger and malnutrition as a result of tighter fuel supplies driving up costs of agricultural production.
Pressure on household budgets negatively affecting nutrition, health, education and gender equity.
The employee of an Ethiopian seed association smiles as bags of wheat seed are ready to be distributed. (Photo: Gerardo Mejía/CIMMYT)
Stabilize while building resilience
With these multi-layered challenges in view, we propose essential actions to mitigate near-term food security crises, to stabilize wheat supply and to concurrently transition toward agri-food system resilience.
Without doubt, the world’s top priority must be to mitigate food security crises at our doorstep. This will involve boosting wheat production through expanded acreage (e.g. in high-performing systems in the Global North) and closing yield gaps (e.g. improved management and value chains of rainfed, wheat-based systems in the Global South) using policy incentives such as price guarantees and subsidized agricultural inputs. Short-term food insecurity can also be addressed through demand-side management (e.g. market controls to conserve grain stocks for human consumption; use of lower-cost flour blends) and de-risking alternative sourcing (e.g. trade agreements).
As these actions are taken, a range of strategies can simultaneously drive toward more resilient wheat supply at local to global scales. Well-functioning seed systems, demand-driven agronomic support and other elements of wheat self-reliance can be encouraged through shifts in local policy, regulatory and sectoral contexts. Enhanced monitoring capacity can track spatial patterns in wheat cropping, including expansion into areas where comparative advantage for wheat production (e.g. agro-ecological suitability; supporting infrastructure) has been identified in rural development frameworks and national plans (e.g. as a double crop in Ethiopian midlands). In addition to enabling yield forecasts, surveillance systems are critical to phytosanitary control of geographically restricted pathogens under altered wheat trade routes.
Yet, these steps to mitigate food shocks and stabilize local wheat supplies will not adequately protect the world from climate-related biophysical risks to food and nutritional security. In parallel, a transition toward agri-food system resilience requires transformative investments in agricultural diversification, sustainable natural resource management and low-greenhouse-gas agroecosystems, as well as meaningful actions toward achieving gender equality, nutritional sufficiency and livelihood security.
Drone shot of wheat trials at CIMMYT global headquarters in Texcoco, Mexico. (Photo: Alfonso Cortés/CIMMYT)
Sustained research & development for a food-secure future
None of the critical actions described above are guaranteed given the oscillating global investment in agricultural research. Enabled by decades of agricultural research, the world has managed to constrain the number and severity of food security crises through major gains in agricultural productivity.
The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), the global international wheat research Center of the CGIAR, has been working tirelessly to maintain wheat harvests around the world in the face of mounting disease pressures and climate challenges. The estimated benefit-cost ratio for wheat improvement research ranges from 73:1 to 103:1. Yet, research funding only rises when food crises occur, revealing the globalized risks of our highly interconnected agri-food systems, and then tapers as memories fade.
With limited resources, scientists around the world are attacking the complex challenge of increasing agricultural yields and ensuring stable, equitable food supplies. Receiving only about 2% of international agricultural research funding over time, CIMMYT and the entire CGIAR have had limited ability to develop the long-term research capabilities that could mitigate or prevent short-term emergencies with medium- to long-term effects.
Responding to the mounting pressures on deeply complex agri-food systems requires integrative solutions that allow farmers and other agri-food stakeholders to mitigate and withstand shocks and to achieve viable livelihoods. Knowledge and technology needs are extensive across production systems (e.g. wheat-legume intercropping; cereals-focused agroecological interventions), value chains (e.g. context-appropriate seed systems; nutrition enhancement through flour blending), monitoring systems (e.g. genomics-based surveillance), and social dimensions (e.g. gender implications of new production and consumption strategies; policy interventions).
Generating such solutions depends on robust, multidisciplinary and transparent research capabilities that fuel the transition to agri-food system resilience. Robust international investment in resilient agricultural systems is an essential condition for national security, global peace and prosperity.
In an analysis piece on Nature, the director of CIMMYT’s Global Wheat Program, Alison Bentley, highlights the expected income of the Russia-Ukraine war on food security.
In low-income nations, the ability of governments to continue to subsidize bread will be strained; the knock-on effects on overall government spending and provision of public services will reach far beyond wheat. The last time wheat prices increased sharply, in 2008, it precipitated food riots from Burkina Faso to Bangladesh.
An unprecedented level of international political and economic action is now required to safeguard the immediate food supply of those who are already vulnerable, including in the global south. At the same time, a range of agricultural interventions must be deployed to make the supply of wheat more resilient in the years ahead.
