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Location: Sri Lanka

Gridded crop modeling to simulate impacts of climate change and adaptation benefits in ACASA

Global temperatures are projected to warm between 1.5-2 degrees Celsius by the year 2050, and 2-4 degrees Celsius by 2100. This is likely to change precipitation patterns, which will impact crop yields, water availability, food security, and agricultural resilience.

To prepare for these challenges, Atlas of Climate Adaptation in South Asian Agriculture (ACASA) uses process-based simulation models that can predict crop growth, development, and yield in order to understand the response of crops to climate change. Models such as Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT), InfoCrop, and Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) facilitate the field scale study of the biophysical and biochemical processes of crops under various environmental conditions, revealing how they are affected by changing weather patterns.

The ACASA team, along with experts from Columbia University and the University of Florida, met for a three-day workshop in January 2024 to boost the work on spatial crop modeling. The aim was to design a modeling protocol through a hands-on demonstration on high-performance computers. When scientifically executed, gridded spatial crop modeling–even though complex and data-intensive–can be a great way to frame adaptation and mitigation strategies for improving food security, which is one of ACASA’s goals.

ACASA’s Spatial Crop Modelling Group meets in Colombo, Sri Lanka, January 2024. (Photo: CIMMYT)

Decisions on data

The group decided to use DSSAT, APSIM, and InfoCrop for simulating the impact of climatic risks on crops such as rice, wheat, maize, sorghum, millet, pigeon pea, chickpea, groundnut, soybean, mustard, potato, cotton, and more. They chose harmonized protocols across all three models with standard inputs, such as conducting simulations at 0.05 degrees. The model input data about weather, soil, crop varietal coefficients, and crop management are being collected and processed for model input formats at 5 kilometer (km) spatial resolution.

A Python version called DSSAT-Pythia is now available to accelerate spatial and gridded applications. The programming for implementing InfoCrop on the Pythia platform is in progress. InfoCrop has been proven in India for past yield estimations, climate change spatial impact, and adaptation assessments for 12 crops.

For other crucial modeling components, a work plan was created including developing regional crop masks, crop zones based on mega-commodity environments as defined by CGIAR, production systems, crop calendars, and irrigated areas by crop. Genetic coefficients will then be calculated from measured past values and recent benchmark data of varietal units.

With this information, several adaptation options will be simulated, including changes in planting dates, stress-tolerant varieties, irrigation, and nitrogen fertilizer (quantity, methods, and technology), residue/mulching, and conservation tillage. The team will evaluate impact and adaptation benefits on yields, water, and nitrogen-use efficiency based on the reported percentage change from the baseline data.

As the project progresses, this work will make strides towards realizing food security for the planet and increasing the resilience of smallholder farming practices.

Blog written by Anooja Thomas, University of Florida; Apurbo K Chaki, BARI, Bangladesh; Gerrit Hoogenboom, University of Florida; S Naresh Kumar, ICAR-IARI, India

Climate Adaptation Atlas will support evidence-based solutions in Sri Lanka

We are all aware the immense challenges countries face due to climate change, particularly its impacts on vital sectors like agriculture, forestry and livestock. The agriculture industry is profoundly affected by unpredictable weather patterns and frequent incidences of extreme events such as floods, droughts and landslides. Consequently, finding effective solutions to address these issues becomes of paramount importance. Climate-resilient agriculture necessitates the adoption of sustainable crop and land management technologies.

(Photo: Karen Conniff/IWMI)

In the context of South Asia, Sri Lanka stands out as one of the most severely affected countries by the impacts of climate change. The nation contends with a multitude of hazards, ranging from floods and landslides in the western and southwestern regions, drought and pest outbreaks in the northern region and coastal erosion along the coastal belts. These examples underscore the growing complexity and challenges associated with managing climate risks and patterns, especially when multiple hazards occur simultaneously.

In response, Sri Lanka has implemented climate-smart agricultural interventions, including the development and introduction of stress-tolerant crop varieties, rainwater harvesting, the introduction of energy-efficient irrigation systems, implementation of soil and water conservation programs and crop diversification. However, the agricultural sector still faces formidable challenges. There is a lack of up-to-date information on climate change and its impacts, a fragmented institutional setup, overlapping mandates and limited capacity for information sharing. To address these issues, we require zone-based planning and institutional collaboration. Integrating spatial considerations into rehabilitation and development interventions is the main consensus among stakeholders. All ongoing and planned programs need vulnerability information, and there is a consensus among stakeholders on the need to integrate spatial considerations into rehabilitation and development interventions.

This is where the Atlas of Climate Adaptation in South Asian Agriculture (ACASA) project becomes an invaluable asset in expediting Sri Lanka’s journey towards climate-smart agriculture. Recent evidence highlights the need for a comprehensive assessment of location-specific climate actions to bridge knowledge gaps within the country. Through the Atlas, we will quantify localized climatic risks today and, in the future, assess their likely impacts on agriculture and identify key adaptation options to mitigate these risks. This knowledge will strengthen Sri Lanka’s food security and reduce its vulnerability to climate-related hazards. By complementing traditional methods of risk characterization with novel approaches like intensity and frequency analysis of hazards and historical crop yields, our efforts will gain added efficacy.

ACASA, therefore, offers us a unique opportunity to foster collaboration, share knowledge and develop evidence-based innovative solutions to confront the challenges posed by climate change in Sri Lanka. It serves as a platform to connect hazards, practices, tools and adaptation options. By intertwining various aspects of climate change and gaining a deeper understanding of its spatial and temporal dimensions through the Atlas, Sri Lanka is steadfast in its commitment to building resilience and creating a sustainable future for generations to come.

Piece by P. Malathy, DG-Agriculture, Sri Lanka

Expanding BISA expertise to new horizons in South Asia

Ten years ago, a foundation was laid on the principles of Norman Borlaug to translate agrarian challenges into opportunities through collaboration between the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT) and the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR). This major step toward sustainable food and nutrition security was taken through the establishment of the Borlaug Institute for South Asia (BISA) as an independent, non-profit research organization.

Today, BISA is a global name in agriculture research with a vision to promote food security, nutrition, stable livelihoods, and eco-friendly practices in South Asia. Given the prominent challenges of climate change in these economically fragile agroecosystems, the partnership between BISA, ICAR, and CIMMYT plays a pivotal role in developing improved wheat and maize varieties with climate-smart and conservation agriculture-based practices.

A decade of impact

One of the most significant outcomes of BISA’s work has been its contribution to building a vast, solid network for evaluating and disseminating new high-yielding and climate-resilient wheat varieties for India and other South Asian countries in close partnership with ICAR and CIMMYT. BISA’s transformative solutions and science-led research are critical to targeting stressed resources and attaining global food security.

With support from ICAR and CIMMYT, BISA has developed state-of-the-art research facilities at its three strategically selected research stations, having 1,200 acres of land that the Government of India, jointly with the respective state governments, generously granted to the project. Located in three disparate agro-climatic and socioeconomic environments, these sites are model research farms supporting agriculture research in South Asia. The learning labs at BISA emphasize that scaling climate-smart villages also strengthen climate-resilient agriculture, primarily through addressing challenges such as residue burning. BISA’s collaborative and inclusive approach is more relevant today when the world is grappling with various food and nutrition insecurity challenges.

Time for expansion

BISA envisages attracting countries from south Asia, the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), as well as National Agricultural Research Systems (NARS), national research institutes, private sector companies, and civil society organizations as active partners for expanding reach in the region. To this end, BISA has completed extensive work in Nepal and Bangladesh and has extended its services to Bhutan and Sri Lanka.

Still, more needs to be done in South Asian countries. Therefore, there is an urgent need for a strong commitment to harnessing the best of international scientific discoveries with local efforts. Collective action is to be garnered to provide trusted and effective mechanisms for developing and sharing cutting-edge agricultural technologies in the South Asian region.

Himanshu Pathak, Director General of ICAR, with Bram Govaerts, Director General of CIMMYT, discuss how BISA’s work can create food security in South Asia. (Photo: BISA)

To this end, a BISA High-Level Meeting was organized on September 1 and 2 in Delhi, with senior government representatives from the NARS in Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, and India. The meeting provided a forum to identify opportunities to co-create and deploy innovative, multidisciplinary solutions to effectively address the transboundary challenges related to food, nutrition, and environmental security faced by farming communities in South Asia. This platform strives to unite the scientific community and thought leaders to support research and development across the agriculture domain.

Delegates from these countries felt that there is a need for a robust program of germplasm exchange within the region, which is essential to strengthening agriculture’s resilience. All countries expressed a significant need to raise their capacity of young researchers in advanced research techniques related to genomics, phenotyping, climate-smart agriculture, precision agriculture, and digital technologies. Delegates also discussed BISA’s role as a research and innovation regional catalyst, innovation hub, and integrated research platform to build resilient agrifood systems and achieve long-term sustainability and resilience for food security in South Asia.

BISA’s farm-ready research, from setting up climate-resilient villages and developing viable alternatives to rice residue burning to facilitating an open exchange of elite germplasm and cutting-edge technologies, reflects not only the vision of CIMMYT but also the philosophy of our mutual inspiration, Borlaug, who believed strongly in sharing knowledge and “taking it to the farmer”.

Cover photo: Delegates from Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and India meet to deliberate on the significant issues in South Asia’s agriculture sector. (Photo: BISA)

Can agriculture bring South Asian countries together?

Agriculture is central to South Asian economies, lives and livelihoods. However, the challenges of an increasing population and brisk economic growth are straining the agriculture sector as it struggles to meet the present and future demand for food, nutritional security, and economic development. Not only this, the three Cs – COVID, climate change and conflict – are fueling the growing fragility in food systems across the world.

To address these issues and find potential solutions, the Borlaug Institute for South Asia (BISA) organized a high-level meeting with top agriculture ministry officials from its neighboring countries – Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Pakistan – to collaborate and learn from each other.

BISA’s outreach to India’s neighbors in South Asia has already produced results. Data from the BISA farm in Ludhiana, India, on resistance to yellow rust that affects wheat crop has been used in Nepal, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Genomic prediction evaluation for grain yield and other traits worked on at BISA through the help of the Global Wheat Program of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) has been extended to Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal since 2020. Regular training is organized for students, scientists and farmers in India on breeding and climate resistant technologies, and BISA scientists organize courses in Nepal on climate-smart technologies.

Read more in Amar Ujala (published in Hindi): Can agriculture bring South Asian countries together?

Cover photo: Tara Miah (50) is a farmer from Rajguru in Rahamanbari union, Barisal, Bangladesh. He used seeder fertilizer drills to plant wheat on his fields. Previously, this was done manually. SFD has resulted in a better harvest for Miah. (Credit: Ranak Martin)

Policy brief highlights opportunities to promote balanced nutrient management in South Asia

Hafiz Uddin, a farmer from Ulankhati, Tanpuna, Barisal, Bangladesh. He used seeder fertilizer drills to plant mung beans on one acre of land, which resulted in a better yield than planting manually. (Photo: Ranak Martin)
Hafiz Uddin, a farmer from Ulankhati, Tanpuna, Barisal, Bangladesh. He used seeder fertilizer drills to plant mung beans on one acre of land, which resulted in a better yield than planting manually. (Photo: Ranak Martin)

Over the last few decades, deteriorating soil fertility has been linked to decreasing agricultural yields in South Asia, a region marked by inequities in food and nutritional security.

As the demand for fertilizers grows, researchers are working with government and businesses to promote balanced nutrient management and the appropriate use of organic amendments among smallholder farmers. The Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia (CSISA) has published a new policy brief outlining opportunities for innovation in the region.

Like all living organisms, crops need access to the right amount of nutrients for optimal growth. Plants get nutrients — like nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium, in addition to other crucially important micronutrients — from soils and carbon, hydrogen, oxygen from the air and water. When existing soil nutrients are not sufficient to sustain good crop yields, additional nutrients must be added through fertilizers or manures, compost or crop residues. When this is not done, farmers effectively mine the soil of fertility, producing short-term gains, but undermining long-term sustainability.

Nutrient management involves using crop nutrients as efficiently as possible to improve productivity while reducing costs for farmers, and also protecting the environment by limiting greenhouse gas emissions and water quality contamination. The key behind nutrient management is appropriately balancing soil nutrient inputs — which can be enhanced when combined with appropriate soil organic matter management — with crop requirements. When the right quantities are applied at the right times, added nutrients help crops yields flourish. On the other hand, applying too little will limit yield and applying too much can harm the environment, while also compromising farmers’ ability to feed themselves or turn profits from the crops they grow.

Smallholder farmers in South Asia commonly practice poor nutrition management with a heavy reliance on nitrogenous fertilizer and a lack of balanced inputs and micronutrients. Declining soil fertility, improperly designed policy and nutrient management guidelines, and weak fertilizer marketing and distribution problems are among the reasons farmers fail to improve fertility on their farms. This is why it is imperative to support efforts to improve soil organic matter management and foster innovation in the fertilizer industry, and find innovative ways to target farmers, provide extension services and communicate messages on cost-effective and more sustainable strategies for matching high yields with appropriate nutrient management.

Cross-country learning reveals opportunities for improved nutrient management. The policy brief is based on outcomes from a cross-country dialogue facilitated by CSISA earlier this year in Kathmandu. The meeting saw researchers, government and business stakeholders from Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka discuss challenges and opportunities to improving farmer knowledge and access to sufficient nutrients. Several key outcomes for policy makers and representatives of the agricultural development sector were identified during the workshop, and are included in the brief.

Extension services as an effective way to encourage a more balanced use of fertilizers among smallholder farmers. There is a need to build the capacity of extension to educate smallholders on a plant’s nutritional needs and proper fertilization. It also details how farmers’ needs assessments and human-centered design approaches need to be integrated while developing and delivering nutrient application recommendations and extension materials.

Nutrient subsidies must be reviewed to ensure they balance micro and macro-nutrients. Cross-country learning and evidence sharing on policies and subsidies to promote balanced nutrient application are discussed in the brief, as is the need to balance micro and macro-nutrient subsidies, in addition to the organization of subsidy programs in ways that assure farmers get access the right nutrients when and where they are needed the most. The brief also suggests additional research and evidence are needed to identify ways to assure that farmers’ behavior changes in response to subsidy programs.

Market, policy, and product innovations in the fertilizer industry must be encouraged. It describes the need for blended fertilizer products and programs to support them. A blend is made by mixing two or more fertilizer materials. For example, particles of nitrogen, phosphate and small amounts of secondary nutrients and micronutrients mixed together. Experience with blended products are uneven in the region, and markets for blends are nascent in Bangladesh and Nepal in particular. Cross-country technical support on how to develop blending factories and markets could be leveraged to accelerate blended fertilizer markets and to identify ways to ensure equitable access to these potentially beneficial products for smallholder farmers.

Download the CSISA Policy and Research Note:
Development of Balanced Nutrient Management Innovations in South Asia: Lessons from Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka.

The CSISA project is led by CIMMYT with partners the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Improved Maize for Tropical Asia (IMTA)

The Improved Maize for Tropical Asia (IMTA) is employing modern maize breeding techniques to develop and deploy new, climate-resilient maize hybrids, including traits important for identified niche markets across tropical Asia.

Principal Coordinator: B.S. Vivek

Researchers set new climate services strategy in Bangladesh

CSRD workshop participants. Photo: M. Asaduzzaman/CIMMYT
CSRD workshop participants. Photo: M. Asaduzzaman/CIMMYT

DHAKA, Bangladesh (CIMMYT) – Scientists from across South and Southeast Asia launched a new agenda earlier this week to boost community involvement in developing climate information and extension messaging services across the region.

“Key to climate services is emphasis on the service,” said Timothy Krupnik, a systems agronomist at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and South Asia project leader for Climate Services for Resilient Development (CSRD).

Researchers know how the region’s farmers will be affected by climate change thanks to the development of climate models and other analyses, but there still is a lack of a strong support system that allows farmers to practically use this information.

“We must be able to rapidly extend information to farmers and others who require climate information to inform their decision making, and to assure that research outputs are translated in an easy to understand way that communicates to farmers, extension workers and policy makers,” said Krupnik. “Equally important is feedback from farmers on the quality of climate services so they can be adapted and improved over time.”

The researchers, who gathered in Dhaka, Bangladesh for a three-day workshop from September 17-19, 2017, evaluated how climate and agricultural extension advisories are currently produced and conveyed, and identified opportunities on how to improve these services for farming communities across Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Myanmar, Nepal, Philippines, Sri Lanka and Vietnam.

“CSRD’s activities are relevant to the U.S. government’s commitment to building resilience of smallholder farmers and to ensure increased production, as well bolster country resilience,” said David Westerling, acting economic growth office director and Feed the Future team leader for the United States Agency for International Development’s mission in Bangladesh. “That is why we are behind this effort.”

During the workshop, delegates assessed different ways to incorporate seasonal climate forecasts into farmer decision making, using several African countries as examples.  For example, participants learned how to simply but effectively depict probabilistic forecasts in graphs to farmers during a group work discussion.

There were also experience sharing sessions on information and communication technology (ICT) in agricultural climate services. Giriraj Amarnath, researcher at the International Water Management Institute, Ishwor Malla, service director for ICT at Agri Private Limited and Md. Nadirruzzaman, assistant professor at the Independent University, Bangladesh indicated that ICT can be a cost-effective approach to transfer information to farmers who can, in turn, improve crop productivity using climate information shared their observation and experiences.

While ICT can serve as an important tool, participants emphasized the need for more face-to-face extension and interaction with farming communities to build trust in forecasts that would otherwise not be fully understood by downloading a mobile application or receiving an SMS message.

An analysis to identify strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats for climate services in each country and across countries was completed to examine how participants can collaborate in south-south exchanges to support ongoing work in agricultural climate services.

On the last day of the workshop, climate index-based agricultural insurance was also discussed, after which participants proposed new institutional arrangements to improve agricultural climate information flow to farmers in each of their countries.

Elisabeth Simelton, climate change scientist at the World Agroforestry Centre in Vietnam and project manager at the Consortium Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS), said the workshop provided an interesting platform where scientists and climate service providers from different countries were able to meet and exchange their experiences and ideas through interactive formats, so that everybody can take something new and useful back to their respective countries.

The Climate Services for Resilient Development (CSRD) is a global partnership that connects climate science, data streams, decision support tools, and training to decision-makers in developing countries.The workshop was sponsored by the United States Agency for International Development on behalf of CSRD and is collaboratively organized by CIMMYT and CSRD through the SERVIR Support Team. This work was also implemented as part of the CGIAR Research Program on CCAFS. Read more about the workshop, participants and sponsors here. 

At this year’s UN Climate Talks, CIMMYT is highlighting innovations in wheat and maize that can help farmers overcome climate change. Follow @CIMMYT on Twitter and Facebook for the latest updates.