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Location: Asia

As a fast growing region with increasing challenges for smallholder farmers, Asia is a key target region for CIMMYT. CIMMYT’s work stretches from Central Asia to southern China and incorporates system-wide approaches to improve wheat and maize productivity and deliver quality seed to areas with high rates of child malnutrition. Activities involve national and regional local organizations to facilitate greater adoption of new technologies by farmers and benefit from close partnerships with farmer associations and agricultural extension agents.

It is time to invest in the future of Afghanistan’s wheat system

A wheat field of Bamyan, Afghanistan. (Photo: Nigel Poole/SOAS University of London)
A wheat field of Bamyan, Afghanistan. (Photo: Nigel Poole/SOAS University of London)

The UN High Commissioner Michelle Bachelet recently said of Afghanistan, “In the wake of years of conflict, and since the takeover by the Taliban in August last year, the country has been plunged into a deep economic, social, humanitarian and human rights crisis” (UN News 2022a). International humanitarian agencies and NGOs have persisted in supporting the population, half of whom are suffering food insecurity, and some of whom are facing unprecedented and catastrophic levels of hunger (UN News 2022b). The conflict in Ukraine is exacerbating the crises in poor import-dependent countries and humanitarian programmes, and Afghanistan will be among the most affected (Bentley and Donovan 2022).

The rural sector underlies Afghanistan’s economic potential, with agriculture as the foundation of the economy. Wheat, both irrigated and rainfed, is the principal agricultural crop, and bread is the major component of the Afghan diet. For decades the country has relied for food security on neighbors such as Kazakhstan and Pakistan and import dependence appears to be a permanent feature of the agricultural economy (Sharma and Nang 2018).

In a recent paper published in Plants, People, Planet, CIMMYT scientists and partners from SOAS University of London, Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit, FAO-Afghanistan, The HALO Trust, Afghanaid and the Agricultural Research Institute of Afghanistan call for renewed investment in Afghanistan’s wheat and agricultural sector.

Bread and spread in Bamyan, Afghanistan. (Photo: Nigel Poole/SOAS University of London)
Bread and spread in Bamyan, Afghanistan. (Photo: Nigel Poole/SOAS University of London)

Improved CIMMYT wheat germplasm has supported agricultural development

CIMMYT’s activities in Afghanistan have focused primarily on supporting the national agricultural research system through the provision of elite, widely adapted germplasm with strong disease resistance. Recent estimates of genetic gains over 14 years (2002-2003 to 2015-2016) of testing of CIMMYT’s Elite Spring Wheat Yield Trial material across 11 locations in Afghanistan documents significant grain yield progress of 115 kg/year. Average yields across 11 testing locations ranged from 3.58 to 5.97 t/ha (Sharma et al., 2021). This indicates that yield potential can be increased through introduction and testing of internationally improved germplasm.

But such investment in research has come to a halt. Local public- and private-sector wheat breeding activities have been largely absent in Afghanistan for over a decade. Hence, wheat productivity remains low due to the limited availability of improved varieties, inadequate quality seed production and distribution. Although in the short term, humanitarian interventions are likely to be the major determinant of food security, we propose that strategic rebuilding of the wheat system will lay the foundation for restoring Afghanistan’s agricultural production, food supplies, nutrition and health. Here we signal opportunities for future improvement.

Opportunities to build climate resilience and enhance seed systems

The need for climate-resilient varieties that meet farmers’ varied requirements and consumer preferences is paramount. Afghan farmers need varieties with improved traits such as heat and drought resilience, incorporating functional variation from existing landrace collections. In addition, agronomic interventions such as conservation agriculture will offer substantial benefits in buffering environmental stresses.

The technological pathways for seed (re-)distribution are a critical part of the innovation pathway from plant breeding to production and productivity. Given the particularities of markets in Afghanistan, both the public sector and the private sector often fail to reach farming geographies that are remote, diverse, and unserved by physical and institutional infrastructure. For many years, basic public services and agricultural interventions have been provided by the NGO sector, and this form of delivery continues. Hence, local ‘informal’ systems for seed and inputs are important to smallholder farmers.

Investment to support both irrigated and rain-fed wheat production

Rehabilitation of ancient irrigation practices and infrastructure could once again serve local farming in a way that supports stable production, restores Afghan heritage, and rebuilds social cohesion. However, there are no easy solutions to the challenges of increasing irrigation to boost agriculture. Although yields are lower, there is potential to optimize breeding specifically for rain-fed production. We expect rain-fed agriculture to continue given the limitations of water and infrastructure access.

Wheat improvement must be embedded in the wider agricultural environment. There is a renewed need for a deep understanding of social, political, and cultural systems and how they vary between villages, and from districts, provinces, and regions to people groups. We need to re-envision the roles of men and women in agriculture, and investment in skills and capacity building to provide a stable foundation for the eradication of poverty and food insecurity.

A new wheat program for Afghanistan

We highlight the urgent need for:

  • Resumption of breeding of nutritious and climate-resilient varieties.
  • Development of a knowledge base on current wheat production systems, gendered agricultural roles, farmer needs for varietal change and consumer preferences for tasty and nutritious wheat-based products.
  • Development of seed information systems using new technologies to enhance farmer engagement in research.
  • Expansion of appropriate irrigation systems and development of nature-based solutions to protect soil and to preserve and conserve water.
  • Investment in capacity building among private, non-governmental, university and public stakeholders in seed systems and delivery of agricultural services.

These foundations will support the wider regeneration of Afghanistan’s agricultural sector and enhance food security, nutrition and health of some of the world’s most vulnerable populations.

Full paper

Poole, N., Sharma, R., Nemat, O.A., Trenchard, R., Scanlon, A., Davy, C., Ataei, N., Donovan, J. and Bentley, A.R. (in production). Sowing the wheat seeds of Afghanistan’s future. Plants, People, Planet DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp3.10277

References

Bentley, A. and Donovan, J. (2022). What price wheat? Crisis in Ukraine underscores the need for long-term solutions for global food security. Retrieved 16 June 2022, from https://staging.cimmyt.org/blogs/what-price-wheat/.

Sharma, R.K. and Nang, M. (2018). Afghanistan wheat seed scenario: Status and imperatives. International Journal of Agricultural Policy and Research 6(5): 71-75 DOI: https://doi.org/10.15739/IJAPR.18.008

UN News (2022a). Afghanistan facing ‘the darkest moments’ in a generation. Retrieved 16 June 2022, from https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/06/1120492.

UN News (2022b). Afghanistan: Nearly 20 million going hungry. Retrieved 16 June 2022, from https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/05/1117812.

Managing seeds and agricultural losses in the wake of extreme climate events: Lessons from Nepal

A women farmer picking up lodged paddy field after the untimely flash floods in Nepal (Photo: Sravan Shrestha/ICIMOD)
A women farmer picking up lodged paddy field after the untimely flash floods in Nepal (Photo: Sravan Shrestha/ICIMOD)

As climate change-induced disasters surge around the world, it is the people of the least developed countries paying the bulk of the costs.  According to the International Disaster Database, the number of disasters across the globe has risen by 74.5% — comparing data from 1980–1999 with 2000–2019 — and these numbers are expected to increase due to the most recent climate change scenarios. The major climate change impacts identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change relevant for Nepal include an increase in economic losses from weather and climate-related events, with a significant contribution related to agricultural losses.

In Nepal, for example, an unexpected and untimely excessive rainfall and flood in October of 2021 caused massive damage to the ready-to-harvest crop across all major rice-producing areas of Nepal – threatening the food security and livelihood of the country’s smallholder rice farmers.

A rice damage assessment was essential to gather insights on the seed production losses and propose anticipatory measures for seed management and distribution to farmers for the next season. Thanks to a collaboration between scientists from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), a rapid loss assessment through a survey of rice-growing farmers was conducted to quickly assess the damage and recommend critical operational decisions to the Nepali government to mitigate the impact. With the help of an operational mobile app, Geofairy, the USAID-supported Nepal Seed and Fertilizer project (NSAF), implemented by CIMMYT, surveyed 253 farmers in six districts of the mid and far western region with a particular focus on the potential seed production losses for next year’s cultivation.

Unforeseen disaster

The 2021 disaster in Nepal came as a shock to farmers: the 2021 monsoon was proceeding as forecasted in the seasonal outlook, and by the end of the season, farmers were generally expecting bumper rice crops. The withdrawal of southwest monsoon system was declared in early October. However, from 18-20 October 2021, instead of dry spell, the country experienced a three-day excessive rainfall and accompanying flooding that caused massive damage to the ready-to-harvest crop across all major rice-producing areas in the southern lowland Terai region of Nepal.

The partially harvested and standing crop suffered three kinds of damage. First, farmers near the riverbanks lost their ready-to-harvest paddy as it was swept away by flash floods. The second category was in the low-lying southern plains, where rainwater inundated the harvested, but not collected, paddy fields for more than two days, causing seeds or grains on the panicles to sprout. Sprouted seeds on the mother plant have reduced germination capacity and vigor, and cannot be stored for a long period while maintaining the germination capacity. The third damage was stem and root lodging (falling over) due to powerful winds.

Digital technologies for rapid damage assessment

With conventional approaches, on-ground damage assessments after a disaster can take weeks, sometimes months, limiting critical operational decisions in the first few hours and days. However, Nepal’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development (MoALD) was already prepared: since 2019, the Ministry has been using satellite remote sensing for in-season rice area estimation through the USAID-supported SERVIR HKH program.

Thanks to the platform, experts from ICIMOD were able to share a satellite image-based assessment as early as 22 October 2021: two days after the flood.

This existing digital crop monitoring platform was used to produce a rapid-damage assessment to provide an analytical basis for initial decisions. In the rapid damage assessment, GMP IMERGE satellite data was used to measure the rainfall intensity across Nepal (Figure 1) and Selntinel-1 SAR satellite data was used to map flood water extent in the Terai district of Nepal on 21 October 2022. The assessment also served as a planning tool for in-depth damage evaluation for farmer compensations.

Widespread flooding

Figure 1. Rainfall distribution during 18-20 October 2021 based on the GPM IMERGE satellite precipitation data

Satellite precipitation data showed the occurrence of hefty rainfall in Morang, Sunsari, Saptari, Siraha and Jhapa districts in the Eastern region. In the Western region, Kailali and Kanchanpur experienced intense rainfall, while most of the central districts of the Terai region remained below heavy rain.

Based on satellite images acquired, the flood extent assessment showed major flood spread in the western parts, including Kanchanpur, Kailali, Bardiya and Banke districts (Figure 2). The flood water extent remained lower in the Eastern districts compared to the West. The causes of severe damage were from direct rain pour and winds in the Eastern region, and flood swept from riverbanks in the Western parts.

Figure 2. Flood extent on 21 October 2021 in Kanchanpur district based on the Sentinel-1 satellite data

Assessment results: Reduced seed quality and shortage of rice seed supply for the next planting season

According to a field-based assessment, the two most popular varieties, Radha-4 and Sarju-52, are the most affected by the flood, especially in Banke, Bardiya, Kailali and Kanchanpur districts. Accordingly, 89% of Radha-4 and 42% of Sarju-52 seed production field has faced partial or complete loss in the surveyed districts. As per the district-wise loss assessment, 80% of Sirju-52 grown in Kailali and 61% in Kanchanpur suffered 50-100% damage. Similarly, nearly 60% of Radha-4 grown in Banke and Bardiya districts has suffered a crop loss ranging from 50-100%. This clearly indicates a huge shortage of these varieties for the next rice season which calls for immediate action to mitigate the seed deficit.

The survey found that farmers in Bardiya, Banke and Kailali had severe or complete crop loss, while those in Kanchanpur, Kapilvastu and Rupendehi had partial crop failure (Figure. 3)

Figure 3. Level of rice loss (%) due to flood, based on a rapid crop loss assessment in six districts of Nepal

Losses and the limits of early warning systems

According to the government’s final estimates, about 1,10,000 ha of rice crop area was damaged across the country. Respondents from the western districts reported that 80% of the farmers could only manage 50% or less than the expected harvest. The farmers reported an average input cost of $526 per hectare (NPR 63,162 per ha) and gross expected income of $972 per hectare (NPR 116,674 per ha) – leaving a very narrow margin of profit. To compensate for this economic blow, the government distributed  $43 million (NPR 5.52 billion) among the farmers. However, with a total loss of $0.1 billion (NPR 12 billion), farmers still suffered a great loss.

Figure 4. Percentage of safe harvest in four western districts (Kapilvastu, Rupandehi, Kanchanpur and Bardiya) of Nepal

Although early warning systems were in place in the surveyed districts, some respondents expressed low trust and reliability in the early warnings and only 20% of respondents were aware of the heavy rainfall forecast issued three days before the extreme event. Earlier studies in the Ganges basin have suggested that a 10–20-day lead-time forecast is needed to avoid agriculture losses. However, predicting a high magnitude of low-frequency extreme events with sufficient advance notice is still a significant challenge in climate science.

How to mitigate and weather such challenges?

Nepal’s rice seed replacement rate is around 20%, which means that about 80% of farmers are not accessing good quality seeds every season. The addition of this untimely flash flood and the subsequent seed loss will further worsen seed availability, in turn contributing to food insecurity at the national level. The assessment findings have several implications for actions needed to mitigate future climate shocks.

  • Among other mitigation approaches, stakeholders need to assess in-country level quality rice seed availability and design a plan to mobilize preferred varieties from the surplus districts — less affected by the flood — to those in need.
  • During challenging times, maintaining seed quality standards might be difficult. Hence, stakeholders need to consider adopting a flexible quality standard such as “quality declared seeds” in similar emergency scenarios. The “quality declared seed” standard helps as an important intervention when normal seed production is greatly affected by drought and/or flood. It offers alternative seed quality standards for seed producers to provide seeds and ensure continuity of crop production.
  • Promoting climate-resilient varieties, especially lodging- or submergence-tolerant rice varieties, will better withstand flooding as compared to the susceptible ones.
  • Furthermore, farmers need access to a suitable crop insurance scheme to offset seed losses during extreme weather events. For instance, seed growers can purchase a group insurance scheme where customized premiums could be available to the members.

Some of the above mitigation approaches can be applied when extreme weather events are well forecasted and less severe. However, in the wake of an emerging climate crisis and limited mitigation options, there is a need to balance efforts on all aspects of adaptation, including the adoption of crop management practices including accelerated varietal turnover to modify threats and prevent adverse impacts, strengthen early warning systems with a focus on last-mile connection to minimize damages, and develop innovative mechanisms to address risk transfer and loss and damage compensations for sharing losses.

2022 Excellence in International Service Award

Pablo D Olivera Firpo

Scientist Pablo D Olivera Firpo has been awarded the Excellence in International Service Award by Advancing the Science of Plant Pathology (APS) for outstanding contributions to plant pathology by APS members for countries other than their own.

Firpo was born in Montevideo, Uruguay, where he received a BSc degree as an agronomy engineer in 1997 from the University of the Republic, College of Agronomy. His PhD degree in 2008 was from the Department of Plant Pathology at the University of Minnesota (UMN). He began his career as a postdoctoral research associate with the Department of Plant Pathology and the USDA-ARS Cereal Disease Lab, and then became a research assistant professor in the Department of Plant Pathology at UMN in 2017.

Firpo has been a vital member in the global cereal rust pathology community and contributed substantially to the fight against Ug99 and other virulent wheat stem rust races that have re-emerged around the world and pose serious threats to food security. Firpo’s contributions are not only within the realm of research of great impact, but also include training 79 scientists and facilitating the establishment of a world-class research group in Ethiopia. He has worked to improve international germplasm screening in Ethiopia. As a postdoctoral research associate, Firpo’s first assignment was to search for new sources of resistance to Ug99 in durum wheat, used for pasta, and related tetraploid wheat lines. That project took him to Ethiopia, where an international Ug99-screening nursery for durum wheat was established at Debre Zeit Research Center. He worked closely with researchers from the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR) and the International Maize and Wheat Research Center (CIMMYT) to improve the methodologies for screening and to provide hands-on training to researchers managing the international screening nursery. During a period of 10 years (from 2009 to 2019), he traveled to Ethiopia 21 times to evaluate stem rust reactions of US and international durum wheat germplasm and completed the screening of the entire durum collection (more than 8,000 accessions) from the USDA National Small Grains Collection.

Firpo’s research on sources and genetics of stem rust resistance led to discoveries of valuable genetic resistance in durum and other relatives of wheat. These sources of resistance have provided the needed diversity to ensure the development and sustainability of durable stem rust resistance.

With frequent epidemics and severe yield losses caused by stem rust in eastern Africa, establishing a functional rust pathology laboratory to support international screening, as well as to monitor and detect new virulences in the pathogen population, became a high priority for the international wheat research community. Utilizing the onground opportunities in Ethiopia, Firpo and his colleagues at the CDL and UMN enthusiastically participated in building up the rust pathology lab at the Ambo Plant Protection Center of EIAR. Firpo traveled to Ambo 11 times to provide hands-on training to staff and to develop cereal rust protocols to suit local conditions. He worked closely with colleagues at CDL, EIAR, and CIMMYT to secure and upgrade facilities, equipment and supplies to a standard that ensures reliable rust work will be carried out. As a result, the rust pathology lab at the Ambo Center became the only laboratory in eastern Africa, and one of a handful in the world, that can conduct high-quality race analysis of wheat stem rust samples and provide vital and necessary support for breeding global wheat varieties for rust resistance. Currently, the laboratory is playing a critical role in the global surveillance of the stem rust pathogen and supports wheat breeding efforts led by EIAR, CIMMYT, and the USDA.

Firpo has been passionate in supporting capacity building of human resources in Ethiopia and elsewhere. He has been eager to share his knowledge whenever he encounters an opportunity to do so. In addition to the direct training of the staff at the Ambo Center, Firpo accepted invitations to provide training lectures and hands-on field- and greenhouse-based workshops on rust pathology at three research centers in Ethiopia. He prepared training materials, delivered a total of 12 lectures and 10 practical sessions in three Ethiopia national workshops in 2014, 2015, and 2017. These workshops enhanced human resource development and technical capacity in ​Ethiopia in cereal rust pathology; participants included a total of 64 junior scientists and technical staff from nationwide research centers. Beyond Ethiopia, he was responsible for developing and implementing a six-week training program in cereal rust prevention and control for international scientists. This training program, under the aegis of the Stakman-Borlaug Center for Sustainable Plant Health in the Department of Plant Pathology, University of Minnesota, provided an experiential learning opportunity for international scientists interested in acquiring knowledge and practical skills in all facets of working with cereal rusts. The program trained 15 rust pathologists and wheat scientists from Ethiopia, Kenya, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan, ranging from promising young scientists selected by the USDA as Borlaug Fellows to principal and senior scientists in their respective countries. Many of these trainees have become vital partners in the global surveillance network for cereal rusts.

Working in collaboration with CDL and international scientists, Firpo has been closely involved in global surveillance of the stem rust pathogen, spurred by monitoring the movements of, and detecting, new variants in the Ug99 race group. Since 2009, he and the team at the CDL have analyzed 2,500 stem rust samples from 22 countries, described over 35 new races, and identified significant virulence combinations that overcome stem rust resistance genes widely deployed in global wheat varieties. Among the most significant discoveries were the identification of active sexual populations of the stem rust pathogen in Kazakhstan, Georgia, Germany, and Spain that have unprecedented virulence and genetic diversities. More than 320 new virulent types (or races) were identified from these sexual populations. Evolution in these populations will present continued challenges to wheat breeding. Research in race analysis has provided valuable pathogen isolates that are used to evaluate breeding germplasm to select for resistant wheat varieties and to identify novel sources of stem rust resistance.

A climate-smart remodeling of South Asia’s rice-wheat cropping is urgent

A climate change hotspot region that features both small-scale and intensive farming, South Asia epitomizes the crushing pressure on land and water resources from global agriculture to feed a populous, warming world. Continuous irrigated rice and wheat cropping across northern India, for example, is depleting and degrading soils, draining a major aquifer, and producing a steady draft of greenhouse gases.

Through decades-long Asian and global partnerships, the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) has helped to study and promote resource-conserving, climate-smart solutions for South Asian agriculture. Innovations include more precise and efficient use of water and fertilizer, as well as conservation agriculture, which blends reduced or zero-tillage, use of crop residues or mulches as soil covers, and more diverse intercrops and rotations. Partners are recently exploring regenerative agriculture approaches — a suite of integrated farming and grazing practices to rebuild the organic matter and biodiversity of soils.

Along with their environmental benefits, these practices can significantly reduce farm expenses and maintain or boost crop yields. Their widespread adoption depends in part on enlightened policies and dedicated promotion and testing that directly involves farmers. We highlight below promising findings and policy directions from a collection of recent scientific studies by CIMMYT and partners.

Getting down in the dirt

A recent scientific review examines the potential of a suite of improved practices — reduced or zero-tillage with residue management, use of organic manure, the balanced and integrated application of plant nutrients, land levelling, and precise water and pest control — to capture and hold carbon in soils on smallholder farms in South Asia. Results show a potential 36% increase in organic carbon in upper soil layers, amounting to some 18 tons of carbon per hectare of land and, across crops and environments, potentially cutting methane emissions by 12%. Policies and programs are needed to encourage farmers to adopt such practices.

Another study on soil quality in India’s extensive breadbasket region found that conservation agriculture practices raised per-hectare wheat yields by nearly half a ton and soil quality indexes nearly a third, over those for conventional practices, as well as reducing greenhouse gas emissions by more than 60%.

Ten years of research in the Indo-Gangetic Plains involving rice-wheat-mungbean or maize-wheat-mungbean rotations with flooded versus subsoil drip irrigation showed an absence of earthworms — major contributors to soil health — in soils under farmers’ typical practices. However, large earthworm populations were present and active under climate-smart practices, leading to improved soil carbon sequestration, soil quality, and the availability of nutrients for plants.

The field of farmer Ram Shubagh Chaudhary, Pokhar Binda village, Maharajganj district, Uttar Pradesh, India, who has been testing zero tillage to sow wheat directly into the unplowed paddies and leaving crop residues, after rice harvest. Chaudhary is one of many farmer-partners in the Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia (CSISA), led by CIMMYT. (Photo: P. Kosina/CIMMYT)
The field of farmer Ram Shubagh Chaudhary, Pokhar Binda village, Maharajganj district, Uttar Pradesh, India, who has been testing zero tillage to sow wheat directly into the unplowed paddies and leaving crop residues, after rice harvest. Chaudhary is one of many farmer-partners in the Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia (CSISA), led by CIMMYT. (Photo: P. Kosina/CIMMYT)

Rebooting marginal farms by design

Using the FarmDESIGN model to assess the realities of small-scale, marginal farmers in northwestern India (about 67% of the population) and redesign their current practices to boost farm profits, soil organic matter, and nutritional yields while reducing pesticide use, an international team of agricultural scientists demonstrated that integrating innovative cropping systems could help to improve farm performance and household livelihoods.

More than 19 gigatons of groundwater is extracted each year in northern India, much of this to flood the region’s puddled, transplanted rice crops. A recent experiment calibrated and validated the HYDRUS-2D model to simulate water dynamics for puddled rice and for rice sown in non-flooded soil using zero-tillage and watered with sub-surface drip irrigation. It was found that the yield of rice grown using the conservation agriculture practices and sub-surface drip irrigation was comparable to that of puddled, transplanted rice but required only half the irrigation water. Sub-surface drip irrigation also curtailed water losses from evapotranspiration and deep drainage, meaning this innovation coupled with conservation agriculture offers an ecologically viable alternative for sustainable rice production.

Given that yield gains through use of conservation agriculture in northern India are widespread but generally low, a nine-year study of rice-wheat cropping in the eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains applying the Environmental Policy Climate (EPIC) model, in this case combining data from long-term experiments with regionally gridded crop modeling, documented the need to tailor conservation agriculture flexibly to local circumstances, while building farmers’ capacity to test and adapt suitable conservation agriculture practices. The study found that rice-wheat productivity could increase as much as 38% under conservation agriculture, with optimal management.

Key partner organizations in this research include the following: Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR); Central Soil Salinity Research Institute (CSSRI), Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), Indian Institute of Farming Systems Research (IIFSR), Agriculture University, Kota; CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar; Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana; Sri Karan Narendra Agriculture University, Jobner, Rajasthan; the Borlaug Institute for South Asia (BISA); the Trust for Advancement of Agricultural Sciences, Cornell University; Damanhour University, Damanhour, Egypt; UM6P, Ben Guerir, Morocco; the University of Aberdeen; the University of California, Davis; Wageningen University & Research; and IFDC.

Generous funding for the work cited comes from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, The CGIAR Research Programs on Wheat Agri-Food Systems (WHEAT) and Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), supported by CGIAR Fund Donors and through bilateral funding agreements), The Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), and USAID.

Cover photo: A shortage of farm workers is driving the serious consideration by farmers and policymakers to replace traditional, labor-intensive puddled rice cropping (shown here), which leads to sizable methane emissions and profligate use of irrigation water, with the practice of growing rice in non-flooded soils, using conservation agriculture and drip irrigation practices. (Photo: P. Wall/CIMMYT)

Nitrogen-Efficient Wheat Production Systems in the Indo-Gangetic Plains through Biological Nitrification Inhibition (BNI) Technology

The Nitrogen-Efficient Wheat Production Systems in the Indo-Gangetic Plains through Biological Nitrification Inhibition (BNI) Technology project aims to raise awareness of the benefits of new nitrogen-efficient wheat production systems among stakeholders in India.

By introducing technologies that maintain crop yield and quality, even with a reduced amount of nitrogen fertilizer, this project will also lessen the footprint of food production systems and combat environmental degradation.

Rapid Point-of-Care Diagnostics for Wheat Rusts (MARPLE)

MARPLE (Mobile And Real-time PLant disEase) diagnostics is a new innovative approach for fungal crop pathogen diagnostics developed by Diane Saunders’s team at the John Innes Centre.

MARPLE is the first operational system in the world using nanopore sequencing for rapid diagnostics and surveillance of complex fungal pathogens in situ. Generating results in 48 hours of field sampling, this new digital diagnostic strategy is leading revolutionary changes in plant disease diagnostics. Rapid strain level diagnostics are essential to quickly find new emergent strains and guide appropriate control measures.

Through this project, CIMMYT will:

  • Deploy and scale MARPLE to priority geographies and diseases as part of the Current and Emerging Threats to Crops Innovation Lab led by Penn State University / PlantVillage and funded by USAID’s Feed the Future.
  • Build national partner capacity for advanced disease diagnostics. We will focus geographically on Ethiopia, Kenya and Nepal for deployment of wheat stripe and stem rust diagnostics, with possible expansion to Bangladesh and Zambia (wheat blast).
  • Integrate this new in-country diagnostic capacity with recently developed disease forecasting models and early warning systems. Already functional for wheat stripe rust, the project plans to expand MARPLE to incorporate wheat stem rust and wheat blast.

Bangladesh Integrated Pest Management Activity (IPMA)

The Bangladesh Integrated Pest Management Activity (IPMA) project aims to strengthen the capacity of agricultural stakeholders in Bangladesh by controlling and preventing the spread of current and emerging threats to ensure more efficient, profitable, and environmentally safe agricultural production and productivity.

Objectives

  • Increase the availability and affordability of integrated pest management measures for the prevention and spread of current and emerging threats
  • Strengthen the capacity of Bangladesh agricultural stakeholders, such as academia, financial institutions, government, judiciary, media, civil society, the private sector, and value chain actors, to implement integrated pest management measures
  • Enhance the adoption of integrated pest management by smallholder farmers to increase agricultural production and productivity, while reducing environmental hazards caused by indiscriminate use of pesticides

Managing Wheat Blast in Bangladesh

The Managing Wheat Blast in Bangladesh: Identification and Introgression of Wheat Blast Resistance for Rapid Varietal Development and Dissemination project aims to characterize novel sources of wheat blast resistance, identification, and molecular mapping of resistance loci/gene(s) and their introgression into varietal development pipelines for rapid dissemination of resistant varieties in Bangladesh.

Objectives

  • Validate the effects of genes Rmg1, Rmg8 and RmgGR119 in field experiments
  • Identify novel wheat blast resistant sources and generating the corresponding genetic materials for investigating the resistance Quantitative Trait Loci (QTL)/genes
  • Monitor the adoption of resistant varieties BARI Gom 33 and WMRI Gom 3 by women and men farmers to learn the drivers and obstacles that are involved in the process, to inform the design of a farmer-preferred product profile, and factors in impact pathway
  • Build the capacity of the Bangladesh Wheat and Maize Research Institute (BWMRI) to operate major infrastructure in Jashore and Dinajpur at the individual and institutional levels
  • Enhance collaboration between Bangladesh and other countries showing interest on wheat blast
  • Train young wheat researchers and breeders in Jashore Precision Phenotyping Platform (PPP)

Transforming Smallholder Food Systems in the Eastern Gangetic Plains (Rupantar)

The Transforming Smallholder Food Systems in the Eastern Gangetic Plains (Rupantar) project aims to define the processes and practices (technical options, scaling interventions, policy settings and implementation) that can be applied to achieve sustainable, efficient, diversified food systems at scale in the Eastern Gangetic Plains of Bangladesh, India and Nepal.

Home to 450 million people, this region has the world’s highest concentration of rural poverty and strong dependence on agriculture for food and livelihoods. Productivity remains low and diversification is limited due to poorly developed markets, sparse agricultural knowledge and service networks, inadequate development of available water resources, and low adoption of improved, sustainable production practices.

Rupantar builds on existing work and partnership networks to link research outputs and development goals through the demonstration of inclusive diversification pathways, definition of processes for scaling to the millions of smallholder farmers in the region, and generating a better understanding of the policies that support diversification.

Research objectives

  • Defining the processes and practices (technical options, scaling interventions, policy settings and implementation) that can be applied to achieve sustainable, efficient, diversified food systems at scale in the Eastern Gangetic Plains.
  • Understanding the context for diversification in the Eastern Gangetic Plains.
  • Defining and implementing diversification pathways using collaborative and inclusive approaches.
  • Deepening understanding of the trade-offs and synergies associated with diversification pathways.
  • Engaging and communicating with change-makers to ensure outputs are used and integrated into independent programs.

Project outcomes

  • Demonstrated pathways for equitable and sustainable diversified food systems in the EGP.
  • Improved evidence-based policies for planning and development programs that promote diversification.
  • Self-sustaining diversification pathways that are owned by local partners and promoted without ongoing project support.

Two approaches better than one: identifying spot blotch resistance in wheat varieties

Spot blotch, a major biotic stress challenging bread wheat production is caused by the fungus Bipolaris sorokiniana. In a new study, scientists from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) evaluate genomic and index-based selection to select for spot blotch resistance quickly and accurately in wheat lines. The former approach facilitates selecting for spot blotch resistance, and the latter for spot blotch resistance, heading and plant height.

Genomic selection

The authors leveraged genotyping data and extensive spot blotch phenotyping data from Mexico and collaborating partners in Bangladesh and India to evaluate genomic selection, which is a promising genomic breeding strategy for spot blotch resistance. Using genomic selection for selecting lines that have not been phenotyped can reduce the breeding cycle time and cost, increase the selection intensity, and subsequently increase the rate of genetic gain.

Two scenarios were tested for predicting spot blotch: fixed effects model (less than 100 molecular markers associated with spot blotch) and genomic prediction (over 7,000 markers across the wheat genome). The clear winner was genomic prediction which was on average 177.6% more accurate than the fixed effects model, as spot blotch resistance in advanced CIMMYT wheat breeding lines is controlled by many genes of small effects.

“This finding applies to other spot blotch resistant loci too, as very few of them have shown big effects, and the advantage of genomic prediction over the fixed effects model is tremendous”, confirmed Xinyao He, Wheat Pathologist and Geneticist at CIMMYT.

The authors have also evaluated genomic prediction in different populations, including breeding lines and sister lines that share one or two parents.

Spot blotch susceptible wheat lines (left) and resistant lines. (Photo: Xinyao He and Pawan Singh/CIMMYT)
Spot blotch susceptible wheat lines (left) and resistant lines. (Photo: Xinyao He and Pawan Singh/CIMMYT)

Index selection

One of the key problems faced by wheat breeders in selecting for spot blotch resistance is identifying lines that are genetically resistant to spot blotch versus those that escape and exhibit less disease by being late and tall. “The latter, unfortunately, is often the case in South Asia”, explained Pawan Singh, Head of Wheat Pathology at CIMMYT.

A potential solution to this problem is the use of selection indices that can make it easier for breeders to select individuals based on their ranking or predicted net genetic merit for multiple traits. Hence, this study reports the first successful evaluation of the linear phenotypic selection index and Eigen selection index method to simultaneously select for spot blotch resistance using the phenotype and genomic-estimated breeding values, heading and height.

This study demonstrates the prospects of integrating genomic selection and index-based selection with field based phenotypic selection for resistance in spot blotch in breeding programs.

Read the full study:
Genomic selection for spot blotch in bread wheat breeding panels, full-sibs and half-sibs and index-based selection for spot blotch, heading and plant height

Cover photo: Bipolaris sorokiniana, the fungus causing spot blotch in wheat. (Photo: Xinyao He and Pawan Singh/CIMMYT)

Wheat versus heat

Wheat leaves showing symptoms of heat stress. (Photo: CIMMYT)
Wheat leaves showing symptoms of heat stress. (Photo: CIMMYT)

Across South Asia, including major wheat-producing regions of India and Pakistan, temperature extremes are threatening wheat production. Heatwaves have been reported throughout the region, with a century record for early onset of extreme heat. Monthly average temperatures across India for March and April 2022 exceeded those recorded over the past 100 years.

Widely recognized as one of the major breadbaskets of the world, the Indo-Gangetic Plains region produces over 100 million tons of wheat annually, from 30 million hectares in Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan, primarily supporting large domestic demand.

The optimal window for wheat planting is the first half of November. The late onset of the 2021 summer monsoon delayed rice planting and its subsequent harvest in the fall. This had a knock-on effect, delaying wheat planting by one to two weeks and increasing the risk of late season heat stress in March and April. Record-high temperatures over 40⁰C were observed on several days in March 2022 in the Punjabs of India and Pakistan as well as in the state of Haryana, causing wheat to mature about two weeks earlier than usual.

In-season changes and effects

Prior to the onset of extreme heat, the weather in the current season in India was favorable, prompting the Government of India to predict a record-high wheat harvest of 111 million tons. The March heat stress was unexpected and appears to have had a significant effect on the wheat crop, advancing the harvest and likely reducing yields.

Departure of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) during the period from March 22 to April 7 from the average of the previous five years. The NDVI is a measure of the leaf area and the greenness of vegetation. The yellow areas in the Punjabs of India and Pakistan, as well as in the state of Haryana, indicate that wheat matured earlier than normal due to elevated temperatures. Maximum temperatures reached 40⁰C on March 15 and remained at or above this level throughout the wheat harvesting period. (Map: Urs Schulthess/CIMMYT).
Departure of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) during the period from March 22 to April 7 from the average of the previous five years. The NDVI is a measure of the leaf area and the greenness of vegetation. The yellow areas in the Punjabs of India and Pakistan, as well as in the state of Haryana, indicate that wheat matured earlier than normal due to elevated temperatures. Maximum temperatures reached 40⁰C on March 15 and remained at or above this level throughout the wheat harvesting period. (Map: Urs Schulthess/CIMMYT).

In the North-Western Plains, the major wheat basket of India, the area of late-sown wheat is likely to have been most affected even though many varieties carry heat tolerance. Data from CIMMYT’s on-farm experiments show a yield loss between 15 to 20% in that region. The states of Haryana and Punjab together contribute almost 30% of India’s total wheat production and notably contribute over 60% of the government’s buffer stocks. In the North-Eastern Plains, in the states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, around 40% of the wheat crop was normal or even early sown, escaping heat damage, whilst the remainder of late-sown wheat is likely to be impacted at a variable level, as most of the crop in this zone matures during the third and fourth week of March.

The Government of India has now revised wheat production estimates, with a reduction of 5.7%, to 105 million tons because of the early onset of summer.

India has reported record yields for the past 5 years, helping it to meet its goal of creating a reserve stock of 40 million tons of wheat after the 2021 harvest. It went into this harvest season with a stock of 19 million tons, and the country is in a good position to face this year’s yield loss.

In Pakistan, using satellite-based crop monitoring systems, the national space agency Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SPARCO) estimated wheat production reduction close to 10%: 26 million tons, compared to the production target of 29 million tons, for the 2021-22 season.

Rural and farming health impacts

Alongside a direct negative impact on agricultural productivity, the extreme temperatures in South Asia are likely to have negative health implications for the large rural labor force involved in wheat production. There is a growing body of evidence documenting declining health status in the agricultural workforce in areas of frequent temperature extremes. This also adds to the substantial human and environmental health concerns linked to residue burning.

We recommend that systematic research be urgently undertaken to characterize and understand the impacts of elevated temperatures on the health of field-based workers involved in wheat production. This is needed to develop a holistic strategy for adapting our global cropping systems to climate change.

Amplifying wheat supply risks

Combined with the wheat supply and price impacts of the current conflict in Ukraine and trade restrictions on Russian commodities, these further impacts on the global wheat supply are deeply troubling.

India had pledged to provide increased wheat exports to bolster global supplies, but this now looks uncertain given the necessity to safeguard domestic supplies. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Indian government supported domestic food security by providing free rations — mainly wheat and rice — to 800 million people over several months. This type of support relies on the availability of large buffer stocks which appear stable, but may be reduced if grain production and subsequent procurement levels are lower than desired.

We are already seeing indications of reduced procurement by governments with market prices running higher than usual. However, although the Food Corporation of India has procured 27% less wheat grain in the first 20 days of the wheat procurement season compared to the same period last year, the Government of India is confident about securing sufficient wheat buffer stocks.

As with the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, it is likely that the most marked effects of both climate change and shortages of staple crops will hit the poorest and most vulnerable communities hardest.

A chain reaction of climate impacts

The real impacts of reduced wheat production due to extreme temperatures in South Asia demonstrate the realities of the climate emergency facing wheat and agricultural production. Direct impacts on farming community health must also be considered, as our agricultural workforce is pushed to new physical limits.

Anomalies, which are likely to become the new normal, can set off a chain reaction as seen here: the late onset of the summer monsoon caused delays in the sowing of rice and the subsequent wheat crop. The delayed wheat crop was hit by the unprecedented heatwave in mid- to late March at a relatively earlier stage, thus causing even more damage.

Preparing for wheat production tipping points

Urgent action is required to develop applied mitigation and adaptation strategies, as well as to plan for transition and tipping points when key staple crops such as wheat can no longer be grown in traditional production regions.

A strategic design process is needed, supported by crop and climate models, to develop and test packages of applied solutions for near-future climate changes. On-farm evidence from many farmers’ fields in Northwestern India indicates that bundled solutions — no-till direct seeding with surface retention of crop residues coupled with early seeding of adapted varieties of wheat with juvenile heat tolerance — can help to buffer terminal heat stress and limit yield losses.

Last but not least, breeding wheat for high-temperature tolerance will continue to be crucial for securing production. Strategic planning needs to also encompass the associated social, market and political elements which underpin equitable food supply and stability.

Download the pre-print:
Wheat vs. Heat: Current temperature extremes threaten wheat production in South Asia

In memory of Zhuang Qiaosheng

Zhuang Qiaosheng (center) receives CIMMYT delegations in Beijing in 1997. (Photo: CIMMYT)
Zhuang Qiaosheng (center) receives CIMMYT delegations in Beijing in 1997. (Photo: CIMMYT)

Zhuang Qiaosheng passed away in Beijing on May 8, 2022, at the age of 105. He was the most celebrated wheat breeder in China and enjoyed a high reputation in the international community.

As a leader of Wheat Breeding Program at Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), Zhuang developed 20 high-yielding and disease-resistant winter wheat varieties from 1947 to 1995, with a total planting area of 28 million hectares in achieving notable yield increase.

Zhuang served as a member of the Board of Trustees of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) from 1984 to 1987. He made great contributions to the collaboration between CIMMYT and China, including the opening of the CIMMYT office in China and the establishment of a shuttle breeding project for improving scab resistance.

Zhuang Qiaosheng (center) with Sanjaya Rajaram (left) and Tom Lumpkin in Beijing in 2017. (Photo: CIMMYT)
Zhuang Qiaosheng (center) with Sanjaya Rajaram (left) and Tom Lumpkin in Beijing in 2017. (Photo: CIMMYT)

He did everything possible to enlarge CIMMYT activities in China before fully retiring in 2015.

He was a close friend to many CIMMYT staff, including the late distinguished scientist Sanjaya Rajaram. He also strongly recommended He Zhonghu, distinguished scientist and CIMMYT Country Representative for China, to work at CIMMYT as a postdoctoral fellow in 1990.

The CIMMYT community sends its deepest condolences to the Zhuang family.

Arpit Gaur

Arpit Gaur is a Assistant Research Associate working with CIMMYT’s Borlaug Institute for South Asia (BISA) in India.

 

Vijay S. Meena

Vijay S. Meena is a Project Coordinator, Climate Resilient Agriculture Program and Soil Scientist, who coordinates research in the CRA Program and supports the Climate Smart Village program. From 2014 he worked at the Indian Council of Agricultural Research as a Soil Scientist before joining CIMMYT’s Borlaug Institute for South Asia (BISA) in May 2020. He has worked in various aspects of soil aggregation, carbon management index and carbon and nitrogen sequestration potential under different land types and cropping systems. He reported that potassium-solubilizing rhizobacteria (KSR) enhances 25-40% potassium (K) availability and help plants to uptake K from the soil. Meena and his team also identified that the combined application of organic and inorganic sources is important in sustaining productivity. He is now working in the field of natural resources management for sustainable agricultural production.