The process for breeding for grain yield in bread wheat at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) involves three-stage testing at an experimental station in the desert environment of Ciudad Obregón, in Mexico’s Yaqui Valley. Because the conditions in Obregón are extremely favorable, CIMMYT wheat breeders are able to replicate growing environments all over the world and test the yield potential and climate-resilience of wheat varieties for every major global wheat growing area. These replicated test areas in Obregón are known as selection environments (SEs).
This process has its roots in the innovative work of wheat breeder and Nobel Prize winner Norman Borlaug, more than 50 years ago. Wheat scientists at CIMMYT, led by wheat breeder Philomin Juliana, wanted to see if it remained effective.
The scientists conducted a large quantitative genetics study comparing the grain yield performance of lines in the Obregón SEs with that of lines in target growing sites throughout the world. They based their comparison on data from two major wheat trials: the South Asia Bread Wheat Genomic Prediction Yield Trials in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh initiated by the U.S. Agency for International Development Feed the Future initiative and the global testing environments of the Elite Spring Wheat Yield Trials.
The authors found higher average heritabilities, or trait variations due to genetic differences, for grain yield in the Obregón SEs than in the target sites (44.2 and 92.3% higher for the South Asia and global trials, respectively), indicating greater precision in the SE trials than those in the target sites. They also observed significant genetic correlations between one or more SEs in Obregón and all five South Asian sites, as well as with the majority (65.1%) of the Elite Spring Wheat Yield Trial sites. Lastly, they found a high ratio of selection response by selecting for grain yield in the SEs of Obregón than directly in the target sites.
“The results of this study make it evident that the rigorous multi-year yield testing in Obregón environments has helped to develop wheat lines that have wide-adaptability across diverse geographical locations and resilience to environmental variations,” said Philomin Juliana, CIMMYT associate scientist and lead author of the article.
“This is particularly important for smallholder farmers in developing countries growing wheat on less than 2 hectares who cannot afford crop losses due to year-to-year environmental changes.”
In addition to these comparisons, the scientists conducted genomic prediction for grain yield in the target sites, based on the performance of the same lines in the SEs of Obregón. They found high year-to-year variations in grain yield predictabilities, highlighting the importance of multi-environment testing across time and space to stave off the environment-induced uncertainties in wheat yields.
“While our results demonstrate the challenges involved in genomic prediction of grain yield in future unknown environments, it also opens up new horizons for further exciting research on designing genomic selection-driven breeding for wheat grain yield,” said Juliana.
This type of quantitative genetics analysis using multi-year and multi-site grain yield data is one of the first steps to assessing the effectiveness of CIMMYT’s current grain yield testing and making recommendations for improvement—a key objective of the new Accelerating Genetic Gains in Maize and Wheat for Improved Livelihoods (AGG) project, which aims to accelerate the breeding progress by optimizing current breeding schemes.
This work was made possible by the generous support of the Delivering Genetic Gain in Wheat (DGGW) project funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) and managed by Cornell University; the U.S. Agency for International Development’s Feed the Future initiative; and several collaborating national partners who generated the grain yield data.
“What you are now about to witness didn’t exist even a few years ago,” begins the first video in a series on zero tillage produced by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT). Zero tillage, an integral part of conservation agriculture-based sustainable intensification, can save farmers time, money and irrigation water.
Through storytelling, the videos demonstrate the process to become a zero till farmer or service provider: from learning how to prepare a field for zero tillage to the safe use of herbicides.
All videos are available in Bengali, Hindi and English.
This videos were produced as part of the Sustainable and Resilient Farming Systems Intensification in the Eastern Gangetic Plains (SRFSI) project, funded by the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR). The videos were scripted with regional partners and filmed with communities in West Bengal, India.
Wheat fields at the Campo Experimental Norman E. Borlaug (CENEB) near Ciudad Obregón, Sonora, Mexico. (Photo: M. Ellis/CIMMYT)
More than 100 scientists, crop breeders, researchers, and representatives from funding and national government agencies gathered virtually to initiate the wheat component of a groundbreaking and ambitious collaborative new crop breeding project led by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT).
The new project, Accelerating Genetic Gains in Maize and Wheat for Improved Livelihoods, or AGG, brings together partners in the global science community and in national agricultural research and extension systems to accelerate the development of higher-yielding varieties of maize and wheat — two of the world’s most important staple crops.
Funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the U.K. Department for International Development (DFID), the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), and the Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research (FFAR), the project specifically focuses on supporting smallholder farmers in low- and middle-income countries. The international team uses innovative methods — such as rapid cycling and molecular breeding approaches — that improve breeding efficiency and precision to produce varieties that are climate-resilient, pest and disease resistant and highly nutritious, targeted to farmers’ specific needs.
The wheat component of AGG builds on breeding and variety adoption work that has its roots with Norman Borlaug’s Nobel Prize winning work developing high yielding and disease resistance dwarf wheat more than 50 years ago. Most recently, AGG builds on Delivering Genetic Gain in Wheat (DGGW), a 4-year project led by Cornell University, which ends this year.
“AGG challenges us to build on this foundation and make it better, faster, equitable and sustainable,” said CIMMYT Interim Deputy Director for Research Kevin Pixley.
At the virtual gathering on July 17, donors and partner representatives from target countries in South Asia joined CIMMYT scientists to describe both the technical objectives of the project and its overall significance.
“This program is probably the world’s single most impactful plant breeding program. Its products are used throughout the world on many millions of hectares,” said Gary Atlin from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. “The AGG project moves this work even farther, with an emphasis on constant technological improvement and an explicit focus on improved capacity and poverty alleviation.”
Alan Tollervey from DFID spoke about the significance of the project in demonstrating the relevance and impact of wheat research.
“The AGG project helps build a case for funding wheat research based on wheat’s future,” he said.
Nora Lapitan from the USAID Bureau for Resilience and Food Security listed the high expectations AGG brings: increased genetic gains, variety replacement, optimal breeding approaches, and strong collaboration with national agricultural research systems in partner countries.
India’s farmers feed millions of people. (Photo: Dakshinamurthy Vedachalam)
Reconnecting with trusted partners
The virtual meeting allowed agricultural scientists and wheat breeding experts from AGG target countries in South Asia, many of whom have been working collaboratively with CIMMYT for years, to reconnect and learn how the AGG project both challenges them to a new level of collaboration and supports their national wheat production ambitions.
“With wheat blast and wheat rust problems evolving in Bangladesh, we welcome the partnership with international partners, especially CIMMYT and the funders to help us overcome these challenges,” said Director General of the Bangladesh Wheat and Maize Research Institute Md. Israil Hossain.
Director of the Indian Institute for Wheat and Barley Research Gyanendra P. Singh praised CIMMYT’s role in developing better wheat varieties for farmers in India.
“Most of the recent varieties which have been developed and released by India are recommended for cultivation on over 20 million hectares. They are not only stress tolerant and high yielding but also fortified with nutritional qualities. I appreciate CIMMYT’s support on this,” he said.
Executive Director of the National Agricultural Research Council of Nepal Deepak K. Bhandari said he was impressed with the variety of activities of the project, which would be integral to the development of Nepal’s wheat program.
“Nepal envisions increased wheat productivity from 2.84 to 3.5 tons per hectare within five years. I hope this project will help us to achieve this goal. Fast tracking the replacement of seed to more recent varieties will certainly improve productivity and resilience of the wheat sector,” he said.
The National Wheat Coordinator at the National Agricultural Research Center of Pakistan, Atiq Ur-Rehman, told attendees that his government had recently launched a “mega project” to reduce poverty and hunger and to respond to climate change through sustainable intensification. He noted that the support of AGG would help the country increase its capacity in “vertical production” of wheat through speed breeding. “AGG will help us save 3 to 4 years” in breeding time,” he said.
For CIMMYT Global Wheat Program Director Hans Braun, the gathering was personal as well as professional.
“I have met many of you over the last decades,” he told attendees, mentioning his first CIMMYT trip to see wheat programs in India in 1985. “Together we have achieved a lot — wheat self-sufficiency for South Asia has been secured now for 50 years. This would not be possible without your close collaboration, your trust and your willingness to share germplasm and information, and I hope this will stay. “
Braun pointed out that in this project, many national partners will gain the tools and capacity to implement their own state of the art breeding strategies such as genomic selection.
“We are at the beginning of a new era in breeding,” Braun noted. “We are also initiating a new era of collaboration.”
The wheat component of AGG serves more than 30 million wheat farming households in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, India, Kenya, Nepal and Pakistan. A separate inception meeting for stakeholders in sub-Saharan Africa is planned for next month.
Accelerating Genetic Gains in Maize and Wheat (AGG), a project led by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), brings together partners in the global science community and in national agricultural research and extension systems to accelerate the development of higher-yielding varieties of maize and wheat — two of the world’s most important staple crops.
Specifically focusing on supporting smallholder farmers in low- and middle-income countries, the project uses innovative methods that improve breeding efficiency and precision to produce varieties that are climate-resilient, pest- and disease-resistant, and highly nutritious, targeted to farmers’ specific needs.
The maize component of the project serves 13 target countries: Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe in eastern and southern Africa; and Benin, Ghana, Mali, and Nigeria in West Africa. The wheat component of the project serves six countries: Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan in South Asia; and Ethiopia and Kenya in sub-Saharan Africa.
This project builds on the impact of the Delivering Genetic Gain in Wheat (DGGW) and Stress Tolerant Maize for Africa (STMA) projects.
Objectives
The project aims to accelerate the development and delivery of more productive, climate-resilient, gender-responsive, market-demanded, and nutritious maize and wheat varieties in support of sustainable agricultural transformation in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
To encourage adoption of new varieties, the project works to improve equitable access, especially by women, to seed and information, as well as capacity building in breeding, disease surveillance, and seed marketing.
Funders
Project funding is provided by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, the United States Agency for International Development and the Foundation for Food and Agricultural Research (FFAR).
Key partners
The primary partners for this project are the national agricultural research systems in the project target countries and, for the maize component, the International Institute for Tropical Agriculture (IITA) and small and medium enterprise (SME) seed companies.
Scientific and technical steering committees
We are grateful to our excellent maize and wheat scientific and technical steering committees for their suggestions and thoughtful question on key issues for the success of AGG. Read about the recommendations from the maize steering committee here and the wheat steering committee here.
Year 1 Executive Summary
In its first year of operation, AGG has made great strides in collaboration with our national partners towards the project goals –despite the unprecedented challenges of working through a global pandemic. For specific milestones achieved, we invite you to review our AGG Year 1 Executive Summary and Impact Report (PDF).
Year 2 Executive Summary
AGG has made progress towards all outcomes. Our scientists are implementing substantial modifications to breeding targets and schemes. AGG is also in a continuous improvement process for the partnership modalities, pursuing co-ownership and co-implementation that builds the capacities of all involved. For specific milestones achieved, we invite you to review our AGG Year 2 Executive Summary and Impact Report (PDF).
The FAO official pointed out that a number of factors help to shield Bangladesh, including the direction of the wind, the monsoon, and India’s robust locust monitoring system.
The COVID-19 pandemic continues to transform the way the world operates, and agricultural production systems are not exempt.
Even in countries that have identified the agricultural sector as an essential one, ongoing restrictions on transport and freedom of movement are causing disruptions across the value chain — with potentially devastating impact on already fragile food systems in Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
With this in mind, systems agronomists and mechanization specialists at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), discuss the impact of restrictions on agricultural labor and production, and the role farm mechanization can play in addressing new challenges.
What are the implications of the agricultural labor shortages that are emerging in Africa and Latin America as a result of COVID-19 restrictions?
A woman demonstrates the use of a mini-tiller in Naivasha, Kenya. (Photo: Matt O’Leary/CIMMYT)
Frédéric Baudron: The pandemic has demonstrated that food production systems around the world — even in countries where agriculture is thought to be highly mechanized — are highly dependent on farm labor.
Africa is often presented as being dominated by farms which rely mainly on the labor of family members. Therefore, one could expect that Africa would be spared from the consequences of unavailability and/or unaffordability of hired labor. However, a recent CIMMYT study shows that farming systems in Africa are far more dependent on hired labor than commonly thought, and that the quasi total dependence of smallholder farming on family labor is a myth. Depending on the farming system, a complete loss of hired labor could lead to a productivity decrease of up to 20% in Eastern and Southern Africa. Hired labor is also likely to be replaced by child labor.
Because most production on the continent is rainfed during a single season, most farmers only plant and harvest once per year, making the timing of each task critical. A delay in planting because of labor shortages — as will soon occur Ethiopia — could lead to dramatically reduced yields. A delay in harvesting — as is currently experienced in Zimbabwe — means a large fraction of the crop is likely to be spoilt in the field.
Jelle Van Loon: The situation is similar for Mexico and the general Central American corridor, although the main production cycle is only just starting. Proper land preparation and timely sowing are critical, not only in terms of food production and achieving proper yields, but also to ensure that farmers have a stable income at the end of the year. This is especially important now, as financial and food reserves are shrinking at a faster pace due to COVID-19 restrictions that heavily affect demand on informal markets.
An operator demonstrates the use of a reaper in Bangladesh. (Photo: CIMMYT)
Are you seeing a similar situation in South Asia?
Timothy Krupnik: Depending on the country, we’ve seen either abrupt interruptions in the movement of agricultural laborers — for example in India where millions of migrant laborers have not been able to travel home during lockdown — or an influx of people from urban areas who fled to their villages when lockdown began.
In the latter case, one might expect this to increase labor availability for farming, but we tended to observe the reverse. People remain largely frightened of coming out of their homes, so even in rural areas which saw an influx of people, labor availability has not necessarily increased. Where laborers are willing to work, our initial scan of the evidence indicates that daily wage labor costs have also increased considerably due to risks of infection spreading. In either situation, smallholder farmers who need to hire labor to assure crucial crop management activities like planting or harvesting are suffering. There are reports emerging also of increased child labor in the region as schools are closed and resource-poor farmers are allocating family members and children to work where they can’t afford to hire labor.
M.L. Jat: I would like to cite the specific example of intensive rice-wheat rotation in India’s breadbasket and the Green Revolution corridors in the western Indo-Gangetic plains, which provide the bulk of cereals to the national food basket. An ex-ante analysis on the consequences of the reverse migration of the agricultural workforce and social distancing due to COVID-19 revealed that a delay in the transplanting of rice seedlings by two weeks is likely, which will delay rice harvesting and consequently delay the planting of wheat. This will potentially lead to rice and wheat production losses of 10-25%, worth up to $1.5 billion.
In addition, the shorter turn around between harvesting rice and planting wheat may further increase the incidence of rice residue burning. This is a major problem which creates significant health issues and may exacerbate the threat of COVID-19 by increasing both infection rates and disease severity.
Krupnik: The situation has increased interest and policy to support use of scale-appropriate machinery for operations like harvesting. In Bangladesh, for example, there was a recent and very serious risk of losing much of the rice harvest as the monsoon has started early and flash flooding has been a concern. Without manual laborers to harvest the crop, CIMMYT-led projects like the Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia – Mechanization and Extension Activity (CSISA-MEA) have played a key role in assisting the movement of combine harvesters and crop reapers to areas at risk of crop losses and helping to assure the rice crop is harvested on time.
An operator demonstrates the use of a starwheel planter in Zimbabwe. (Photo: Frederic Baudron/CIMMYT)
It sounds like these machines were instrumental in avoiding crop losses. Does this mean that mechanization has a key role to play in lessening the impact of these labor shortages?
Krupnik: During the COVID-19 crisis, scale-appropriate machinery has become even more important for mitigating labor shortages. We work to facilitate the availability of scale-appropriate machinery not only so that farmers can buy and use equipment, but also by encouraging those who own machineries to become entrepreneurial service providers who offer efficient and mechanized land preparation, planting, irrigation, harvesting and post-harvesting to other farmers on an affordable fee-for-service basis.
This is a win-win situation for farmers who can’t access or afford the escalating costs of labor. In the COVID-19 crisis, these arrangements assist in responding to the labor crunch in locations where resource-poor farmers are most in need, and also allow farmers to get crucial work done while maintaining and encouraging social distancing.
Baudron: Over the past seven years, CIMMYT and its partners have fine-tuned technologies and developed delivery models — based on rural service providers supported by private sector companies — to scale the use of small machines in East and Southern Africa. These are profitable for both farmers and service providers and reduce labor requirements tremendously.
In Zimbabwe, we found that labor requirements were 15 times lower when establishing a maize field with a direct seeder pulled by a two-wheel tractor, and 23 times lower using a similar technology for establishing wheat in Rwanda, compared to the conventional method based on labor and draft power. A ton of maize that would take 12 people a full day to shell manually, can be shelled in one hour using a small double-cob sheller that costs about $300.
Jat: Rapid policy decisions by sub-national and national governments on facilitating more mechanized operations in labor intensive rice-wheat production regions will address labor availability issues while contributing to productivity enhancement of succeeding wheat crop in rotation, as well as overall system sustainability. Our ex-ante analysis on the implications of labor shortages in rice-wheat rotation in the western Indo-Gangetic plains due to COVID-19 indicates that adoption of scale-appropriate farm mechanization has the potential to stabilize the food production as well as reducing the income losses and air pollution surges in northwest India.
Harvesting maize in Mexico. (Photo: CIMMYT)
The situation in the regions each of you have mentioned is unique, but are there any global trends that you’ve noticed? And if so, can other regions learn from these localized experiences?
Krupnik: A huge part of what we do as a research and training institute is facilitate exchanges of information across continents and countries. Different types and designs of machinery that can be used in similar circumstances can be shared, as can business models supporting service providers.
Importantly, part of the concept of ‘scale-appropriate mechanization’ is also learning when and where machinery makes sense — where labor is not scarce and rural communities are highly dependent on income from labor to sustain their communities, some forms of mechanization may not be appropriate. We work to understand these dynamics and target the right machines in the right time and right places.
Van Loon: In addition to reducing pressure on available labor and alleviating drudgery, modern farm equipment tailored to the needs of smallholders can also increase competitiveness, as it allows for higher precision and efficiency.
In this sense, scale-appropriate mechanization can stimulate rural transformation incentivizing short and efficient value chains while ensuring stable food provision — aspects that have become essential to navigating the present crisis.
Has the current pandemic brought up any new perspectives in terms of how you consider labor and mechanization?
Baudron: We often look at yield and area planted in staple crops to assess the food security situation of a country during a particular year. This pandemic has shown us that we need to pay more attention to labor productivity. In many countries, policy-makers and development agents fear that mechanization will displace labor, but the dependency of staple crops on labor is a threat to food security, as we currently see in Africa and South Asia.
If the production of fruit, vegetables, cash crops, and so on will continue to depend on manual labor, it is essential in my view for critical tasks in the production of staples to be mechanized — particularly planting and harvesting. This will ensure the resilience of national food systems in the case of a future disruption similar to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Cover photo: Establishment of demo trial in Nyanga, Zimbabwe. (Photo: CIMMYT/ZRBF)
Ispahani and AgBiTech are pleased to announce the formal registration of a biological control for Fall Armyworm in Bangladesh.
This rapid assessment and registration despite the ongoing lockdown due to Covid-19 is the result of months of collaborative hard work and support from members representing multiple organizations including USAID, CIMMYT, the Ministry of Agriculture, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute, Plant Protection Wing of Agricultural Extension, and the Fall Armyworm National Task Force.
The Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARRCC) program is managed by the UK Met Office, supported by the World Bank and the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID). The four-year program, which started in 2018, aims to strengthen weather forecasting systems across Asia. The program will deliver new technologies and innovative approaches to help vulnerable communities use weather warnings and forecasts to better prepare for climate-related shocks.
Since 2019, as part of ARRCC, CIMMYT has been working with the Met Office and Cambridge University to pilot an early warning system to deliver wheat rust and blast disease predictions directly to farmers’ phones in Bangladesh and Nepal.
The system was first developed in Ethiopia. It uses weather information from the Met Office, the UK’s national meteorological service, along with field and mobile phone surveillance data and disease spread modeling from the University of Cambridge, to construct and deploy a near real-time early warning system.
Phase I: 12-Month Pilot Phase
Around 50,000 smallholder farmers are expected to receive improved disease warnings and appropriate management advisories in the first 12 months as part of a proof-of-concept modeling and pilot advisory extension phase focused on three critical diseases:
Wheat stripe rust in Nepal: extend and test the modelling framework developed in Ethiopia to smallholder farmers in Nepal as proof-of concept;
Wheat stem rust in Bangladesh and Nepal: while stem rust is currently not widely established in South Asia, models indicate that devastating incursion from neighboring regions is likely. This work will prepare for potential incursions of new rust strains in both countries;
Wheat blast in Bangladesh: this disease is now established in Bangladesh. This work will establish the feasibility of adapting the dispersal modelling framework to improve wheat blast predictability and deploy timely preventative management advisories to farmers.
Phase II: Scaling-out wheat rust early warning advisories, introducing wheat blast forecasting and refinement model refinement
Subject to funding approval the second year of the project will lead to validation of the wheat rust early warnings, in which researchers compare predictions with on-the-ground survey results, increasingly supplemented with farmer response on the usefulness of the warnings facilitated by national research and extension partners. Researchers shall continue to introduce and scale-out improved early warning systems for wheat blast. Concomitantly, increasing the reach of the advice to progressively larger numbers of farmers while refining the models in the light of results. We anticipate that with sufficient funding, Phase II activities could reach up to 300,000 more farmers in Nepal and Bangladesh.
Phase III: Demonstrating that climate services can increase farmers’ resilience to crop diseases
As experience is gained and more data is accumulated from validation and scaling-out, researchers will refine and improve the precision of model predictions. They will also place emphasis on efforts to train partners and operationalize efficient communication and advisory dissemination channels using information communication technologies (ICTs) for extension agents and smallholders. Experience from Ethiopia indicates that these activities are essential in achieving ongoing sustainability of early warning systems at scale. Where sufficient investment can be garnered to support the third phase of activities, it is expected that an additional 350,000 farmers will receive disease management warnings and advisories in Nepal and Bangladesh, totaling 1 million farmers over a three-year period.
Objectives
Review the feasibility of building resilience to wheat rust through meteorologically informed early warning systems.
Adapt and implement epidemiological forecasting protocols for wheat blast in South Asia.
Implement processes to institutionalize disease early warning systems in Nepal and Bangladesh.
World’s leading food security think-tank and research centres have recommended Bangladesh to ensure transportation of food from rural to urban areas and the flow of crucial inputs to farmers through market systems so that risk to food system during Covid-19 pandemic can be averted.
Wheat blast (Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype Triticum, or MoT) was first discovered in Brazil in 1985. Since then, it has spread across central and southern Brazil, parts of Bolivia, Paraguay, and Argentina. Grain sterility caused by the disease can significantly reduce wheat yield, with reductions as high as 32% in some parts of Brazil, even with up to two fungicide applications.
The disease appeared in Bangladesh unexpectedly in 2016 and re-emerged in 2017. Wheat area consequently dropped from 62,763 hectares in 2016 to just 14,238 hectares a year later. Suitable climatic conditions in South Asia warn that wheat blast will be a long-term problem.
Some 300 million people in South Asia consume over 100 million tons of wheat annually. Wheat blast therefore presents a significant threat to food security. Compounding these problems, climate change and the evolution of wheat blast – increasing virulence, fungicide resistance and sexual recombination – present further threats.
This project responds to these problems by working to mitigate the effect of wheat blast in South Asia and South America and limit the risk of further spread of this threat, with an emphasis on training, surveillance and monitoring to mitigate the threat of wheat blast disease in Bangladesh and beyond.
Objectives
Improve upon a preliminary modeling framework to manage data requirements for automated time- and spatially-explicit wheat blast outbreak early warning systems (EWS)
Improve flowering predictability to more accurately gauge disease risk
Demonstrate the performance of wheat blast resistant and zinc biofortified variety BARI Gom 33 in farmers’ fields.
Heterogeneity in soils, hydrology, climate, and rapid changes in rural economies including fluctuating prices, aging and declining labor forces, agricultural feminization, and uneven market access are among the many factors that constrain climate-smart agriculture (CSA) in South Asia’s cereal-based farming systems.
Most previous research on CSA has employed manipulative experiments analyzing agronomic variables, or survey data from project-driven initiatives. However, this can obscure the identification of relevant factors limiting CSA, leading to inappropriate extension, policy, and inadequate institutional alignments to address and overcome limitations. Alternative big data approaches utilizing heterogeneous datasets remain insufficiently explored, though they can represent a powerful alternative source of technology and management practice performance information.
In partnership with national research systems and the private sector in Bangladesh, India and Nepal, Big data analytics for climate-smart agricultural practices in South Asia (Big Data2 CSA) is developing digital data collection systems to crowdsource, data-mine and interpret a wide variety of primary agronomic management and socioeconomic data from tens of thousands of smallholder rice and wheat farmers.
The project team analyzes these data by stacking them with spatially-explicit secondary environmental, climatic and remotely sensed data products, after which data mining and machine learning techniques are used to identify key factors contributing to patterns in yield, profitability, greenhouse gas emissions intensity and resilience.
These approaches however must be practical in order for them to be useful in agricultural development and policy. As such, the project’s analytical results will be represented through interactive web-based dashboards, with gender-appropriate crop management advisories deployed through interactive voice recognition technologies to farmers in Bangladesh, India and Nepal at a large-scale. Big Data2 CSA is supported by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) Flagship 2 on Climate-Smart Technologies and Practices.
Objectives
Develop ICT tools enabling digital collection of crop management data and a cloud-based database that can be managed by next-users
Support advanced degree-level students to engage in field and data science research
Create a digital data collection platform enabling crowd sourcing of crop management information to evaluate contributions to CSA
Create interactive and customizable web-based dashboards presenting post-season research results and providing CSA management recommendations
Organize CSA and big data policy briefings on mainstreaming processes and policy workshops
Fall armyworm is an invasive Lepidopteran pest that favors maize and is native to the Americas. It was identified in Bangladesh for the first time in late 2018 following migration from Africa and southern India.
Supported by the University of Michigan and USAID, this project cooperates with national research and extension partners, CABI and the FAO to strengthen efforts to mitigate impact of the pest on farmers’ income, food security and health.
Objectives
Develop educational materials to help reach audiences with information to improve understanding and management of fall armyworm
Assist the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) in deploying awareness raising and training campaigns
Institutional change to improve crop protection and integrated pest management
Prepare the private sector for appropriate fall armyworm response
Support the standing multi-threat pest emergency taskforce
Generate data and evidence to guide integrated fall armyworm management
Focusing on highly profitable but weather-risk prone mung bean production in coastal Bangladesh, the Climate and market-smart mung bean advisories (CAMASMA) project develops farmer friendly and demand-driven climate- and market-smart mung bean advisory dissemination systems.
Heavy rainfall events can cause significant damage to mung bean production, causing large yield and income losses for farmers in coastal Bangladesh. By integrating and disseminating weather-forecast information, climate-smart advisories for when and how to harvest mung bean help farmers to mitigate some of the climate risks associated with crop production.
Both mung bean farmers and traders can also benefit from real-time market price data. In addition to market intelligence on where large blocks of farmers have quality mung bean for sale, CAMASMA improves information flow to lower trading firms’ transactions costs while speeding farm-gate purchase and income generation from farmers.
CAMASMA is a pilot project that demonstrates the power of climate services, agricultural advisories, and use of social network analysis and ICTs to speed information delivery and increase farmers’ resilience to extreme climatic events.
Objectives
Customize heavy and extreme rainfall event forecasts for coastal Bangladesh
Analyze social networks to assist extension agents in rapid deployment of crop management advice in remote and hard to reach areas
Set up interpretive algorithms and interactive voice response (IVR) mobile call systems for weather, mung bean management and market advisories appropriate to men and women smallholder farmers
Release and promote a smartphone app providing customized weather forecasts, mung bean agronomic advice, early warnings for potential crop damaging extreme weather events, and market information
Establish business models and strategies for sustaining the use of IVR and smartphone apps after project closure
An early warning system set to deliver wheat disease predictions directly to farmers’ phones is being piloted in Bangladesh and Nepal by interdisciplinary researchers.
Experts in crop disease, meteorology and computer science are crunching data from multiple countries to formulate models that anticipate the spread of the wheat rust and blast diseases in order to warn farmers of likely outbreaks, providing time for pre-emptive measures, said Dave Hodson, a principal scientist with the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) coordinating the pilot project.
Around 50,000 smallholder farmers are expected to receive improved disease warnings and appropriate management advisories through the one-year proof-of-concept project, as part of the UK Aid-funded Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARRCC) program.
Early action is critical to prevent crop diseases becoming endemic. The speed at which wind-dispersed fungal wheat diseases are spreading through Asia poses a constant threat to sustainable wheat production of the 130 million tons produced in the region each year.
“Wheat rust and blast are caused by fungal pathogens, and like many fungi, they spread from plant to plant — and field to field — in tiny particles called spores,” said Hodson. “Disease strain mutations can overcome resistant varieties, leaving farmers few choices but to rely on expensive and environmentally-damaging fungicides to prevent crop loss.”
“The early warning system combines climate data and epidemiology models to predict how spores will spread through the air and identifies environmental conditions where healthy crops are at risk of infection. This allows for more targeted and optimal use of fungicides.”
The system was first developed in Ethiopia. It uses weather information from the Met Office, the UK’s national meteorological service, along with field and mobile phone surveillance data and disease spread modeling from the University of Cambridge, to construct and deploy a near real-time early warning system.
CIMMYT consultant Madan Bhatta conducts field surveys using Open Data Kit (ODK) in the mid-hills of Nepal. (Photo: D. Hodson/CIMMYT)
Initial efforts focused on adapting the wheat stripe and stem rust model from Ethiopia to Bangladesh and Nepal have been successful, with field surveillance data appearing to align with the weather-driven disease early warnings, but further analysis is ongoing, said Hodson.
“In the current wheat season we are in the process of comparing our disease forecasting models with on-the-ground survey results in both countries,” the wheat expert said.
“Next season, after getting validation from national partners, we will pilot getting our predictions to farmers through text-based messaging systems.”
CIMMYT’s strong partnerships with governmental extension systems and farmer associations across South Asia are being utilized to develop efficient pathways to get disease predictions to farmers, said Tim Krupnik, a CIMMYT Senior Scientist based in Bangladesh.
“Partnerships are essential. Working with our colleagues, we can validate and test the deployment of model-derived advisories in real-world extension settings,” Krupnik said. “The forecasting and early warning systems are designed to reduce unnecessary fungicide use, advising it only in the case where outbreaks are expected.”
Local partners are also key for data collection to support and develop future epidemiological modelling, the development of advisory graphics and the dissemination of information, he explained.
The second stage of the project concerns the adaptation of the framework and protocols for wheat blast disease to improve existing wheat blast early warning systems already pioneered in Bangladesh.
Example of weekly stripe rust spore deposition forecast in Nepal. Darker colors represent higher predicted number of spores deposited. The early warning system combines weather information from the Met Office with field and mobile phone surveillance data and disease spread modeling from the University of Cambridge. (Graphic: University of Cambridge and Met Office)
Strong scientific partnership champions diversity to achieve common goals
The meteorological-driven wheat disease warning system is an example of effective international scientific partnership contributing to the UN Sustainable Development Goals, said Sarah Millington, a scientific manager at Atmospheric Dispersion and Air Quality Group with the Met Office.
“Diverse expertise from the Met Office, the University of Cambridge and CIMMYT shows how combined fundamental research in epidemiology and meteorology modelling with field-based disease observation can produce a system that boosts smallholder farmers’ resilience to major agricultural challenges,” she said.
The atmospheric dispersion modeling was originally developed in response to the Chernobyl disaster and since then has evolved to be able to model the dispersion and deposition of a range of particles and gases, including biological particles such as wheat rust spores.
“The framework together with the underpinning technologies are transferable to forecast fungal disease in other regions and can be readily adapted for other wind-dispersed pests and disease of major agricultural crops,” said Christopher Gilligan, head of the Epidemiology and Modelling Group at the University of Cambridge.
Fungal wheat diseases are an increasing threat to farmer livelihoods in Asia
Wheat leaf rust can be spotted on a wheat plant of a highly susceptible variety in Nepal. The symptoms of wheat rust are dusty, reddish-orange to reddish-brown fruiting bodies that appear on the leaf surface. These lesions produce numerous spores, which are spread by wind and splashing water. (Photo: D Hodson/CIMMYT)
While there has been a history of wheat rust disease epidemics in South Asia, new emerging strains and changes to climate pose an increased threat to farmers’ livelihoods. The pathogens that cause rust diseases are continually evolving and changing over time, making them difficult to control.
Stripe rust threatens farmers in Afghanistan, India, Nepal and Pakistan, typically in two out of five seasons, with an estimated 43 million hectares of wheat vulnerable. When weather conditions are conducive and susceptible cultivars are grown, farmers can experience losses exceeding 70%.
Populations of stem rust are building at alarming rates and previously unseen scales in neighboring regions. Stem rust spores can spread across regions on the wind; this also amplifies the threat of incursion into South Asia and the ARRCC program’s target countries, underscoring the very real risk that the disease could reemerge within the subcontinent.
The devastating wheat blast disease, originating in the Americas, suddenly appeared in Bangladesh in 2016, causing wheat crop losses as high as 30% on a large area, and continues to threaten South Asia’s vast wheat lands.
In both cases, quick international responses through CIMMYT, the CGIAR research program on Wheat (WHEAT) and the Borlaug Global Rust Initiative have been able to monitor and characterize the diseases and, especially, to develop and deploy resistant wheat varieties.
The UK aid-funded ARRCC program is led by the Met Office and the World Bank and aims to strengthen weather forecasting systems across Asia. The program is delivering new technologies and innovative approaches to help vulnerable communities use weather warnings and forecasts to better prepare for climate-related shocks.
The early warning system uses data gathered from the online Rust Tracker tool, with additional fieldwork support from the Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia (CSISA), funded by USAID and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, both coordinated by CIMMYT.
Following the spread of fall armyworm, crowdsourced data is powering a web-based application to help farmers in Bangladesh stay ahead of the crop pest.
The Fall Armyworm Monitor collects population, incidence and severity data, and guides pest management decisions. The web tool relies on information gathered by farmers using smartphones in their fields.
It was developed by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) in cooperation with Bangladesh’s Department of Agricultural Extension, through the Fighting Back Against Fall Armyworm project, supported by USAID and Michigan State University.
When a foreign caterpillar first munched through Muhammad Hasan Ali’s maize field during the winter 2018-2019 season, he was stumped as to what it was or how to manage it. All he knew was his harvest and the investment he made in growing his crop was at risk.
“I’d never seen this type of insect in previous seasons, but I soon learned from government extension workers it was the fall armyworm,” explained Hasan Ali, a farmer from rural Chuadanga, in western Bangladesh. When poorly managed, fall armyworm can significantly reduce maize productivity.
Hasan Ali asked to join a training program, where he learned how to identify, monitor and control the spread of the invasive and voracious crop pest. The training, mainly tailored to extension staff, was facilitated by CIMMYT and Bangladesh’s Department of Agricultural Extension.
Participants of the Fighting Back Against Fall Armyworm trainings learning to collect field data through the Fall Armyworm Monitor web app in a farmer’s field in Chauadanga, Bangladesh. (Photo: Uttam Kumar/CIMMYT)
Participants of the Fighting Back Against Fall Armyworm trainings learning to collect field data through the Fall Armyworm Monitor web app in a farmer’s field in Chauadanga, Bangladesh. (Photo: Uttam Kumar/CIMMYT)
Participants and instructors of the Fighting Back Against Fall Armyworm trainings participate in a field session to work with the Fall Armyworm Monitor web app in Chauadanga, Bangladesh. (Photo: Uttam Kumar/CIMMYT)
Equipped to fight the pest
Extension staff and farmers gained valuable insights into different methods of control, including management of small and large patches of insect attack.
“I learned to identify fall armyworms in my field — and how to use hand picking methods and appropriate application of insecticide for control,” said Hasan Ali.
Farmers also learned how to set up pheromone traps to monitor pest populations and to use smartphones to make data-driven integrated pest management decisions using a cloud-based monitoring platform.
Crowdsourced information on the movement of fall armyworm is essential for effectively monitoring its spread and is a pivotal step in its management, said CIMMYT Senior Scientist and Systems Agronomist Timothy Krupnik.
“Farmers in top maize growing regions are working with extension officers to monitor traps and report findings weekly by entering data into smartphones,” Krupnik said.
Pheromones are natural compounds emitted by female moths to attract males for mating. Synthetic compounds that mimic natural fall armyworm pheromones are placed in traps to lure and capture male moths, after which extension agents count moths, enter, and upload data in their districts. At the time of writing, 649 staff from the Department of Agricultural Extension are reporting weekly moth count and pest damage data.
“Pest management practices are best when they are data-driven,” Krupnik explained. “Having information on the geographical location, plant growth stage and severity of infestation provides an informed base from which appropriate decisions can be made, with the ultimate goal of reducing pesticide misuse.”
“We are also excited as the data are open-access, and we are working to share them with FAO and other partners crucial in fall armyworm response,” he added.
The Fall Armyworm Monitor gives moth count and other data at the division, district and upazilla levels. (Photo: CIMMYT)
Data for better decisions
“The website hosts real-time data and depicts them graphically and in maps depending on user’s preferences. This information — which was core to the training extension agents participated in — is key for integrated pest management strategies,” explained Mutasim Billah, CIMMYT Data Specialist and the lead developer of the application.
“The department of extension services have employed 253 officers to visit fields with handheld smart devices in 25 districts to upload data,” said Billah. “The online tool stores data entries in its server and calculates the aggregated value for division, district and sub-district level on a weekly basis, and shows the estimated values through charts and in tabular format.”
The Fall Armyworm Monitor has become an essential tool for government officials to aid farmers in managing the pest which so far has been successful, said Bijoy Krishna Halder, additional Deputy Director of Plant Protection with the Bangladesh government.
“CIMMYT’s web portal is a very efficient way to collect data from the field. Anyone can access the page to see the overall condition of infestation across the country,”said Krishna Halder. “I check the portal every week about the fall armyworm condition and now it shows that the infestation is low with the overall field conditions good.”
The pest native to the Americas has become a global menace as it has spread attacking crops through Africa, and Asia, threatening the food and economic security of smallholder farmers.
The Fall Armyworm Monitor was created as part of the new Fighting Back Against Fall Armyworm in Bangladesh project is aligned with Michigan State University’s Borlaug Higher Education for Agricultural Research and Development (BHEARD) program, which supports the long-term training of agricultural researchers in USAID’s Feed the Future priority countries.
