Dryland Crops, formerly known as the Accelerated Varietal Improvement and Seed Systems in Africa (AVISA) project, aims to improve the livelihoods of small-scale producers and consumers of sorghum, millet, groundnut, cowpea and bean. Project partners focus on improving the breeding and seed systems of these crops in their key geographies in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Ghana, Mali, Nigeria, Tanzania and Uganda. Other crops receiving growing attention in the project include finger millet, pigeon pea and chickpea.
Although significant adoption of improved seed of dryland cereals and legume crops in Africa has been reported, its overall use remains low. There is a growing interest in these crops, particularly because of their resilience to climate-change; however, the seed sector is constrained by lack of product information, dearth of knowledge of the size and scale of the business opportunity, and inadequate access to early generation seed.
Dryland Crops will address these constraints by contributing to the establishment of robust systems that:
Enable networks to work synergistically across countries with common challenges and opportunities.
Support national agricultural research systems to access research, professional development and infrastructure-building opportunities.
Increase the quantity and quality of data substantiating varietal superiority and the demand for seed and grain of improved varieties.
Boost the availability of early generation seed and strengthen links between the research system and private- and public-sector actors.
The aspiration is to codevelop, validate by co-implementation, and continuously improve with partners research-to-farm-to-consumer models that achieve positive impacts on farmersâ livelihoods and consumersâ wellbeing.
The Alliance of Bioversity and CIAT and IITA will lead initiatives for common bean and cowpea, respectively. For sorghum, pearl millet and groundnut breeding, CIMMYT will design programs that support crop improvement networks, including CGIAR and national agricultural research systems, and incorporate best approaches, principles, and tools, particularly those availed through the Excellence in Breeding (EiB) platform.
The project is committed to gender equity as a guiding principle, considering the critical role women play in choosing legume and cereal varieties and seed sources. Women seed entrepreneurs and women-led seed companies will garner special attention for capacity development. Partnerships with actors through the value chain, platforms and demonstrations will ensure women have equal access to improved technologies.
The previous phase of the AVISA project was led by the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT).
Nigeria’s National Biosafety Management Agency (NBMA) has approved the commercialization of TELA Maize seedsâa drought-tolerant and insect-protected variety aimed at enhancing food security in sub-Saharan Africa.
The TELA Maize Project in Nigeria is part of an international consortium coordinated by the African Agricultural Technology Foundation (AATF), the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), and the National Agricultural Research Systems of seven countries, including Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, and Uganda.
Given the very heterogeneous conditions in smallholder agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa, there is a growing policy interest in site-specific extension advice and the use of related digital tools. However, empirical ex ante studies on the design of this type of tools are scant and little is known about their impact on site-specific extension advice.
In partnership with Oyakhilomen Oyinbo and colleagues at KU Leuven, scientists at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) have carried out research to clarify user preferences for tailored nutrient management advice and decision-support tools. The studies also evaluated the impact of targeted fertilizer recommendations enabled by such tools.
Understanding farmersâ adoption
A better understanding of farmersâ and extension agentsâ preferences may help to optimize the design of digital decision-support tools.
Oyinbo and co-authors conducted a study among 792 farming households in northern Nigeria, to examine farmersâ preferences for maize intensification in the context of site-specific extension advice using digital tools.
Overall, farmers were favorably disposed to switch from general fertilizer use recommendations to targeted nutrient management recommendations for maize intensification enabled by decision-support tools. This lends credence to the inclusion of digital tools in agricultural extension. The study also showed that farmers have heterogeneous preferences for targeted fertilizer recommendations, depending on their resources, sensitivity to risk and access to services.
The authors identified two groups of farmers with different preference patterns: a first group described as âstrong potential adopters of site-specific extension recommendations for more intensified maize productionâ and a second group as âweak potential adopters.â While the two groups of farmers are willing to accept some yield variability for a higher average yield, the trade-off is on average larger for the first group, who have more resources and are less sensitive to risk.
The author recommended that decision-support tools include information on the riskiness of expected investment returns and flexibility in switching between low- and high-risk recommendations. This design improvement will help farmers to make better informed decisions.
Community leaders talk to researchers in one of the villages in norther Nigeria which took part in the study. (Photo: Oyakhilomen Oyinbo)
Members of the survey team participate in a training session at Bayero University Kano, Nigeria. (Photo: Oyakhilomen Oyinbo)
One of the sites of nutrient omission trials, used during the development phase of the Nutrient Expert tool in Nigeria. (Photo: Oyakhilomen Oyinbo)
Using data from a discrete choice experiment, the study showed that extension agents were generally willing to accept the use of digital decision-support tools for siteâspecific fertilizer recommendations. While extension agents in the sample preferred tools with a more userâfriendly interface that required less time to generate an output, the authors also found substantial preference heterogeneity for other design features. Some extension agents cared more about the outputs, such as information accuracy and level of detail, while others prioritized practical features such as the toolâs platform, language or interface.
According to the authors, accounting for such variety of preferences into the design of decision-support tools may facilitate their adoption by extension agents and, in turn, enhance their impact in farmarsâ agricultural production decisions.
Interface of the Nutrient Expert mobile app, locally calibrated for maize farmers in Nigeria.
Impact of digital tools
Traditional extension systems in sub-Saharan African countries, including Nigeria, often provide general fertilizer use recommendations which do not account for the substantial variation in production conditions. Such blanket recommendations are typically accompanied by point estimates of expected agronomic responses and associated economic returns, but they do not provide any information on the variability of the expected returns associated with output price risk.
Policymakers need a better understanding of how new digital agronomy tools for tailored recommendations affect the performance of smallholder farms in developing countries.
To contribute to the nascent empirical literature on this topic, Oyinbo and colleagues evaluated the impact of a nutrient management decision-support tool for maize â Nutrient Expert â on fertilizer use, management practices, yields and net revenues. The authors also evaluated the impacts of providing information about variability in expected investment returns.
To provide rigorous evidence, the authors conducted a three-year randomized controlled trial among 792 maize-producing households in northern Nigeria. The trial included two treatment groups who are exposed to site-specific fertilizer recommendations through decision-support tools â one with and another one without additional information on variability in expected returns â and a control group who received general fertilizer use recommendations.
Overall, the use of nutrient management decision-support tools resulted in greater fertilizer investments and better grain yields compared with controls. Maize grain yield increased by 19% and net revenue increased by 14% after two years of the interventions. Fertilizer investments only increased significantly among the farmers who received additional information on the variability in expected investment returns.
The findings suggest including site-specific decision support tools into extension programming and related policy interventions has potential benefits on maize yields and food security, particularly when such tools also supply information on the distribution of expected returns to given investment recommendations.
The research-for-development community has tried different approaches to optimize fertilizer recommendations. In Nigeria, there are several tools available to generate location-specific fertilizer recommendations, including Nutrient Expert. As part of the Taking Maize Agronomy to Scale in Africa (TAMASA) project, CIMMYT has been working on locally calibrated versions of this tool for maize farmers in Ethiopia, Nigeria and Tanzania. The development was led by a project team incorporating scientists from the African Plant Nutrition Institute (APNI), CIMMYT and local development partners in each country.
Next steps
Some studies have shown that dis-adoption of seemingly profitable technologies â such as fertilizer in sub-Saharan Africa â is quite common, especially when initial returns fall short of expectations or net utility is negative, producing a disappointment effect.
In the context of emerging digital decision-support tools for well-targeted fertilizer use recommendations, it remains unclear whether farmersâ initial input use responses and the associated economic returns affect their subsequent responses â and whether the disappointment effect can be attenuated through provision of information about uncertainty in expected returns.
Using our three-year randomized controlled trial and the associated panel dataset, researchers are now working on documenting the third-year responses of farmers to site-specific agronomic advice conditional on the second-year responses. Specifically, they seek to better document whether providing farmers with information about seasonal variability in expected investment returns can reduce possible disappointment effects associated with their initial uptake of site-specific agronomic advice and, in a way, limit dis-adoption of fertilizer.
Cover photo: A farmer shows maize growing in his field, in one of the communities in northern Nigeria where research took place. (Photo: Oyakhilomen Oyinbo)
The food security and livelihoods of smallholder farming families in sub-Saharan Africa depend on maize production. The region accounts for up to two-thirds of global maize production, but is facing challenges related to extreme weather events, climate-induced stresses, pests and diseases, and deteriorating soil quality. These require swift interventions and innovations to safeguard maize yields and quality.
In this Q&A, we reflect on the results and impact of the long-term collaborative work on drought-tolerant maize innovations spearheaded by two CGIAR Research Centers: the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA). This innovative work has changed guises over the years, from the early work of the Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa (DTMA) and Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa Seed Scaling (DTMASS) projects through later iterations such as Stress Tolerant Maize for Africa (STMA) and the newest project, Accelerating Genetic Gains in Maize and Wheat (AGG).
In this Q&A, three leaders of this collaborative research reflect on the challenges their work has faced, the innovations and impact it has generated for smallholder farmers, and possible directions for future research. They are: B.M Prasanna, director of CIMMYTâs Global Maize Program and of the CGIAR Research Program on Maize (MAIZE); Abebe Menkir, a maize breeder and maize improvement lead at IITA; and Cosmos Magorokosho, project lead for AGG-Maize at CIMMYT.
Briefly describe the challenges confronting small-scale farmers prior to the introduction of drought-tolerant maize and how CIMMYT and IITA responded to these challenges?
B.M.P.: Maize is grown on over 38 million hectares in sub-Saharan Africa, accounting for 40% of cereal production in the region and providing at least 30% of the populationâs total calorie intake. The crop is predominantly grown under rainfed conditions by resource-constrained smallholder farmers who often face erratic rainfall, poor soil fertility, increasing incidence of climatic extremes â especially drought and heat â and the threat of devastating diseases and insect pests.
Around 40% of maize-growing areas in sub-Saharan Africa face occasional drought stress with a yield loss of 10â25%. An additional 25% of the maize crop suffers frequent drought, with yield losses of up to 50%. Climate change is further exacerbating the situation, with devastating effects on the food security and livelihoods of the millions of smallholder farmers and their families who depend on maize in sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore, the improved maize varieties with drought tolerance, disease resistance and other farmer-preferred traits developed and deployed by CIMMYT and IITA over the last ten years in partnership with an array of national partners and seed companies across sub-Saharan Africa are critical in effectively tackling this major challenge.
A.M.: Consumption of maize as food varies considerably across sub-Saharan Africa, exceeding 100 kg per capita per year in many countries in southern Africa. In years when rainfall is adequate, virtually all maize consumed for food is grown in sub-Saharan Africa, with a minimal dependence on imported grain. Maize production, however, is highly variable from year to year due to the occurrence of drought and the dependence of national maize yields on seasonal rainfall. One consequence has been widespread famine occurring every five to ten years in sub-Saharan Africa, accompanied by large volumes of imported maize grain as food aid or direct imports.
This places a significant strain on resources of the World Food Programme and on national foreign exchange. It also disincentivizes local food production and may not prevent or address cyclical famine. It also leaves countries ill-equipped to address famine conditions in the period between the onset of the crisis and the arrival of food aid. Investment in local production, which would strengthen the resilience and self-sufficiency in food production of smallholder farming families, is a far better option to mitigate food shortages than relying on food aid and grain imports.
C.M.: Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa face innumerable natural and socioeconomic constraints. CIMMYT, in partnership with IITA and national agricultural research system partners, responded by developing and catalyzing the commercialization of new maize varieties that produce reasonable maize yields under unpredictable rainfall-dependent growing season.
Over the life of the partnership, more than 300 new climate-adaptive maize varieties were developed and released in more than 20 countries across sub-Saharan Africa where maize is a major staple food crop. Certified seed of over 100 stress-tolerant improved maize varieties have been produced by seed company partners, reaching more than 110,000 tons in 2019. The seeds of these drought-tolerant maize varieties have benefited more than 8 million households and were estimated to be grown on more than 5 million hectares in eastern, southern and west Africa in 2020.
A farmer in Mozambique stands for a photograph next to her drought-tolerant maize harvest. (Photo: CIMMYT)
In what ways did the drought-tolerant maize innovation transform small-scale farmersâ ability to respond to climate-induced risks? Are there any additional impacts on small scale farmers in addition to climate adaptation?
B.M.P.: The elite drought-tolerant maize varieties can not only provide increased yield in drought-stressed crop seasons, they also offer much needed yield stability. This means better performance than non-drought-tolerant varieties in both good years and bad years to a smallholder farmer.
Drought-tolerant maize varieties developed by CIMMYT and IITA demonstrate at least 25-30% grain yield advantage over non-drought-tolerant maize varieties in sub-Saharan Africa under drought stress at flowering. This translates into at least a 1 ton per hectare enhanced grain yield on average, as well as reduced downside risk in terms of lost income, food insecurity and other risks associated with crop yield variability. In addition to climate adaptation, smallholder farmers benefit from these varieties due to improved resistance to major diseases like maize lethal necrosis and parasitic weeds like Striga. We have also developed drought-tolerant maize varieties with enhanced protein quality â such as Quality Protein Maize or QPM â and provitamin A, which improve nutritional outcomes.
We must also note that drought risk in sub-Saharan Africa has multiple and far-reaching consequences. It reduces incentives for smallholder farmers to intensify maize-based systems and for commercial seed companies to invest and evolve due to a limited seed market.
Drought-tolerant maize is, therefore, a game changer as it reduces the downside risk for both farmers and seed companies and increases demand for improved maize seed, thus strengthening the commercial seed market in sub-Saharan Africa. Extensive public-private partnerships around drought-tolerant maize varieties supported the nascent seed sector in sub-Saharan Africa and has enabled maize-based seed companies to significantly grow over the last decade. Seed companies in turn are investing in marketing drought-tolerant maize varieties and taking the products to scale.
A.M.: The DTMA and STMA projects were jointly implemented by CIMMYT and IITA in partnership with diverse national and private sector partners in major maize producing countries in eastern, southern and western Africa to develop and deploy multiple stress-tolerant and productive maize varieties to help farmers adapt to recurrent droughts and other stresses including climate change.
These projects catalyzed the release and commercialization of numerous stress-resilient new maize varieties in target countries across Africa. Increasing the resilience of farming systems means that smallholder farmers need guaranteed access to good quality stress resilient maize seeds. To this end, the two projects worked with public and private sector partners to produce large quantities of certified seeds with a continual supply of breeder seeds from CIMMYT and IITA. The availability of considerable amount of certified seeds of resilient maize varieties has enabled partners to reach farmers producing maize under stressful conditions, thus contributing to the mitigation of food shortages that affect poor people the most in both rural and urban areas.
C.M.: The drought-tolerant maize innovation stabilized maize production under drought stress conditions in sub-Saharan Africa countries. Recent study results showed that households that grew drought-tolerant maize varieties had at least half a ton more maize harvest than the households that did not grow the drought-tolerant maize varieties, thus curbing food insecurity while simultaneously increasing farmersâ economic benefits. Besides the benefit from drought-tolerant innovation, the new maize varieties developed through the partnership also stabilized farmersâ yields under major diseases, Striga infestation, and poor soil fertility prevalent in sub-Saharan Africa.
How is the project addressing emerging challenges in breeding for drought-tolerant maize and what opportunities are available to address these challenges in the future?Â
Margaret holds an improved ear of drought-tolerant maize. Margaretâs grandmother participated in an on-farm trial in Murewa district, 75 kilometers northeast of Zimbabweâs capital Harare. (Photo: Jill Cairns/CIMMYT)
B.M.P.: A strong pipeline of elite, multiple-stress-tolerant maize varieties â combining other relevant adaptive and farmer-preferred traits â has been built in sub-Saharan Africa through a strong germplasm base, partnerships with national research partners and small- and medium-sized seed companies, an extensive phenotyping and multi-location testing network, and engagement with farming communities through regional on-farm trials for the identification of relevant farmer-preferred products.
CGIAR maize breeding in sub-Saharan Africa continues to evolve in order to more effectively and efficiently create value for the farmers we serve. We are now intensively working on several areas: (a) increasing genetic gains (both on-station and on-farm) through maize breeding in the stress-prone environments of sub-Saharan Africa by optimizing our breeding pipelines and effectively integrating novel tools, technologies and strategies (e.g., doubled haploids, genomics-assisted breeding, high-throughput and precise phenotyping, improved breeding data management system, etc.); (b) targeted replacement of old or obsolete maize varieties in sub-Saharan Africa with climate-adaptive and new varieties; (c) developing next-generation climate-adaptive maize varieties with traits such as native genetic resistance to fall armyworm, and introgressed nutritional quality traits (e.g., provitamin A, high Zinc) to make a positive impact on the nutritional well-being of consumers; and (d) further strengthening the breeding capacity of national partners and small and medium-sized seed companies in sub-Saharan Africa for a sustainable way forward.
A.M.:Â The DTMA and STMA projects established effective product pipelines integrating cutting-edge phenotyping and molecular tools to develop stress-resilient maize varieties that are also resistant or tolerant to MLN disease and fall armyworm. These new varieties are awaiting release and commercialization. Increased investment in strengthening public and private sector partnerships is needed to speed up the uptake and commercialization of new multiple stress-resilient maize varieties that can replace the old ones in farmersâ fields and help achieve higher yield gains.
Farmersâ access to new multiple-stress-tolerant maize varieties will have a significant impact on productivity at the farm level. This will largely be due to new varietiesâ improved response to fertilizer and favorable growing environments as well as their resilience to stressful production conditions. Studies show that the adoption of drought-tolerant maize varieties increased maize productivity, reduced exposure to farming risk among adopters and led to a decline in poverty among adopters. The availability of enough grain from highly productive and stress-resilient maize varieties can be the cheapest source of food and release land to expand the cultivation of other crops to facilitate increased access to diversified and healthy diets.
C.M.: Â The project is tackling emerging challenges posed by new diseases and pests by building upon the successful genetic base of drought-tolerant maize. This is being done by breeding new varieties that add tolerance to the emerging disease and pest challenges onto the existing drought-tolerant maize backgrounds. Successes have already been registered in breeding new varieties that have high levels of resistance to MLN disease and the fall armyworm pest.
Opportunities are also available to address new challenges including: pre-emptively breeding for threats to maize production challenges that exist in other regions of the world before these threats reach sub-Saharan Africa; enhancing the capacity of national partners to build strong breeding programs that can address new threats once they emerge in sub-Saharan Africa; and sharing knowledge and novel high-value breeding materials across different geographies to immediately address new threats once they emerge.
Cover photo: Alice Nasiyimu stands in front of a drought-tolerant maize plot at her family farm in Bungoma County, in western Kenya. (Photo: Joshua Masinde/CIMMYT)
Stakeholders in the Accelerating Genetic Gains in Maize and Wheat for Improved Livelihoods (AGG) project have pledged to strengthen efforts to deliver desirable stress tolerant, nutritious and high-yielding maize and wheat varieties to smallholder farmers in a much shorter time. The alliance, comprising funders, national agricultural research systems (NARS), private seed companies, non-governmental organizations, the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and, for the maize component the International Institute for Tropical Agriculture (IITA), made these assurances during virtual events held in July and August 2020, marking the inception of the 5-year AGG project.
The initiative seeks to fast-track the development of higher-yielding, climate resilient, demand-driven, gender-responsive and nutritious seed varieties for maize and wheat, two of the worldâs most important staple crops. The project is funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO), the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), and the Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research (FFAR).
Tackling current and emerging threats
Jeff Rosichan, scientific program director of the Foundation for Food and Agricultural Research (FFAR), acknowledged the significant and ambitious aim of the project in tackling the challenges facing maize and wheat currently and in the future. âWe are seeing the emergence of new pests and pathogens and viral diseases like never before. A lot of the work of this project is going to help us to tackle such challenges and to be better prepared to tackle emerging threats,â he said.
AGG builds on gains made in previous initiatives including Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa (DTMA), Improved Maize for African Soils (IMAS), Water Efficient Maize for Africa (WEMA), Stress Tolerant Maize for Africa (STMA) and Delivering Genetic Gain in Wheat (DGGW), with support from partners in 17 target countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and South Asia.
Hailu Wordofa, agricultural technology specialist at the USAID Bureau for Resilience and Food Security, underscored his expectation for CIMMYTâs global breeding program to use optimal breeding approaches and develop strong collaborative relationships with NARS partners, âfrom the development of product profiles to breeding, field trials and line advancement.â
Similarly, Gary Atlin, senior program officer at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation lauded the move toward stronger partnerships and greater emphasis on the CIMMYT and IITA breeding programs. âThe technical capacity of partners has increased through the years. It is prudent to ensure that national partnerships continue. It is always a challenging environment, this time multiplied by the COVID-19 crisis, but through this collaboration, there is a greater scope to strengthen such partnerships even more,â he said.
Anne Wangui, Maize Seed Health Technician, demonstrates how to test maize plants for maize dwarf mosaic virus (MDMV). (Photo: Joshua Masinde/CIMMYT)
Symbiotic partnerships with great impact
âFrom the NARS perspective, we are committed to doing our part as primary partners to deliver the right seed to the farmers,â said Godfrey Asea, director of the National Crops Resources Research Institute at the National Agriculture Research Organization (NARO), Uganda. âWe see an opportunity to review and to use a lot of previous historical data, both in-country and regionally and to continue making improved decisions. We also reiterate our commitment and support to continuously make improvement plans in our breeding programs.â
Martin Kropff, director general of CIMMYT, recognized the tremendous impact arising from the longstanding cooperation between CIMMYTâs maize and wheat programs and national programs in countries where CIMMYT works. âA wheat study in Ethiopia showed that 90% of all the wheat grown in the country is CIMMYT-related, while an impact study for the maize program shows that 50% of the maize varieties in Africa are CIMMYT-derived. We are very proud of that â not for ourselves but for the people that we work for, the hundreds of millions of poor people and smallholder farmers who really rely on wheat and maize for their living and for their incomes,â he said.
Founder and Chief Executive Officer of East Africa-based Western Seed Company Saleem Esmail expressed optimism at the opportunities the project offers to improve livelihoods of beneficiaries. âI believe we can do this by sharing experiences and by leveraging on the impacts that this project is going to bring, from new technologies to new science approaches, particularly those that help save costs of seed production.â
He, however, observed that while the target of fast-tracking varietal turnover was great, it was a tough call, too, âbecause farmers are very risk averse and to change their habits requires a great deal of effort.â
On his part, director of Crop Research at the Oromia Agricultural Research Institute (OARI) in Ethiopia Tesfaye Letta revealed that from collaborative research work undertaken with CIMMYT, the institute has had access to better-quality varieties especially for wheat (bread and durum). These have helped millions of farmers to improve their productivity even as Ethiopia aims for wheat self-sufficiency by expanding wheat production under irrigation.
âWe expect more support, from identifying wheat germplasm suitable for irrigation, developing disease resistant varieties and multiplying a sufficient quantity of early generation seed, to applying appropriate agronomic practices for yield improvement and organizing exposure field visits for farmers and experts,â he said.
Challenges and opportunities in a time of crisis
Alan Tollervey, head of agriculture research at Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) and the UK representative to the CGIAR System Council, emphasized the need for continued investment in agricultural research to build a resilient food system that can cope with the demands and pressures of the coming decades. This way, organizations such as CIMMYT and its partners can adequately deliver products that are relevant not only to the immediate demands of poor farmers in developing countries â and the global demand for food generally â but also to address foreseen threats.
âWe are at a time of intense pressure on budgets, and that is when projects are most successful, most relevant to the objectives of any organization, and most able to demonstrate a track record of delivery. CIMMYT has a long track history of being able to respond to rapidly emerging threats,â he said.
Felister Makini, the deputy director general for crops at the Kenya Agricultural Research Organization (KALRO) lauded the fact that AGG not only brings together maize and wheat breeding and optimization tools and technologies, but also considers gender and socioeconomic insights, âwhich will be crucial to our envisioned strategy to achieve socioeconomic change.â
Zambia Agriculture Research Organization (ZARI) maize breeder Mwansa Kabamba noted that the inclusion of extension workers will help to get buy-in from farmers especially as far as helping with adoption of the improved varieties is concerned.
In its lifecycle, the AGG project aims to reduce the breeding cycles for both maize and wheat from 5-7 years currently to 3-4 years. By 2024, at least 150,000 metric tons of certified maize seed is expected to be produced, adopted by 10 million households, planted on 6 million hectares and benefit 64 million people. It also seeks to serve over 30 million households engaged in wheat farming the target countries.
Cover photo: CIMMYT researcher Demewoz Negera at the Ambo Research Center in Ethiopia. (Photo: Peter Lowe/CIMMYT)
By 2050, global demand for wheat is predicted to increase by 50 percent from todayâs levels and demand for maize is expected to double. Meanwhile, these profoundly important and loved crops bear incredible risks from emerging pests and diseases, diminishing water resources, limited available land and unstable weather conditions â with climate change as a constant pressure exacerbating all these stresses.
Accelerating Genetic Gains in Maize and Wheat for Improved Livelihoods (AGG) is a new 5-year project led by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) that brings together partners in the global science community and in national agricultural research and extension systems to accelerate the development of higher-yielding varieties of maize and wheat.
Funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and the Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research (FFAR), AGG fuses innovative methods to sustainably and inclusively improve breeding efficiency and precision to produce seed varieties that are climate-resilient, pest- and disease-resistant, highly nutritious, and targeted to farmersâ specific needs.
AGG seeks to respond to the intersection of the climate emergency and gender through gender-intentional product profiles for its improved seed varieties and gender-intentional seed delivery pathways.
AGG will take into account the needs and preferences of female farmers when developing the product profiles for improved varieties of wheat and maize. This will be informed by gender-disaggregated data collection on current varieties and preferred characteristics and traits, systematic on-farm testing in target regions, and training of scientists and technicians.
Farmer Agnes Sendeza harvests maize cobs in Malawi. (Photo: Peter Lowe/CIMMYT)
To encourage female farmers to take up climate-resilient improved seeds, AGG will seek to understand the pathways by which women receive information and improved seed and the external dynamics that affect this access and will use this information to create gender-intentional solutions for increasing varietal adoption and turnover.
âUntil recently, investments in seed improvement work have not actively looked in this area,â said Olaf Erenstein, Director of CIMMYTâs Socioeconomics Program at a virtual inception meeting for the project in late August 2020. Now, âit has been built in as a primary objective of AGG to focus on [âŠ] strengthening gender-intentional seed delivery systems so that we ensure a faster varietal turnover and higher adoption levels in the respective target areas.â
In the first year of the initiative, the researchers will take a deep dive into the national- and state-level frameworks and policies that might enable or influence the delivery of these new varieties to both female and male farmers. They will analyze this delivery system by mapping the seed delivery paths and studying the diverse factors that impact seed demand. By understanding their respective roles, practices, and of course, the strengths and weaknesses of the system, the researchers can diagnose issues in the delivery chain and respond accordingly.
Once this important scoping step is complete, the team will design a research plan for the following years to understand and influence the seed information networks and seed acquisition. It will be critical in this step to identify some of the challenges and opportunities on a broad scale, while also accounting for the related intra-household decision-making dynamics that could affect access to and uptake of these improved seed varieties.
âIt is a primary objective of AGG to ensure gender intentionality,â said Kevin Pixley, Director of CIMMYTâs Genetic Resources Program and AGG project leader. âOften women do not have access to not only inputs but also information, and in the AGG project we are seeking to help close those gaps.â
Cover photo: Farmers evaluate traits of wheat varieties, Ethiopia. (Photo: Jeske van de Gevel/Bioversity International)
For smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa, new agricultural technologies such as improved maize varieties offer numerous benefits â increased incomes, lower workloads and better food security, among others. However, when new technologies are introduced, they can denaturalize and expose gender norms and power relations because their adoption inevitably requires women and men to renegotiate the rules of the game. The adoption of new varieties will often be accompanied by a number of related decisions on the allocation of farm labor, the purchase and use of inorganic fertilizers, switching crops between women- and men-managed plots, and the types of benefit household members expect to secure may change.
In an article published this month in Gender, Technology and Development, researchers from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) explore how women in Nigeria negotiate these new power dynamics to access and secure the benefits of improved maize varieties and, more broadly, to expand their decision-making space.
Using focus group and interview data collected as part of the GENNOVATE project, the authors draw on case studies from four villages â two in the northern states of Kaduna and Plateau; two in the southwestern state of Oyo â to develop an understanding of the relationship between gender norms, womenâs ability and willingness to express their agency, and the uptake of agricultural technologies. âThis is an important step toward improving the capacity of agricultural research for development to design and scale innovations,â say the authors. âAchieving this ambition is highly relevant to maize.â
The results were similar across all four sites. The authors found that women in each area were constrained by powerful gender norms which privilege male agency and largely frown upon womenâs empowerment, thus limiting their ability to maximize the benefits from improved varieties or realize their agency in other domains.
All women respondents remarked that improved maize varieties were easy to adopt, have higher yields and mature quickly, which meant that income flows started earlier and helped them meet household expenditures on time. They prioritized the contribution of improved maize to securing household food security, which helped them meet their ascribed gender roles as food providers.
âAt the same time though, women felt they could not maximize their benefits from improved maize varieties due to menâs dominance in decision-making,â the authors explain. âThis was particularly the case for married women.â
âMen are meant to travel far â not womenâ
Woman selling white maize at Bodija market in Ibadan, Nigeria. (Photo: Adebayo O./IITA)
Embedded gender norms â particularly those relating to mobility â infuse the wider environment and mean that womenâs access to opportunities is considerably more restricted than it is for men.
The findings demonstrate that both women and men farmers secure benefits from improved maize varieties. However, men accrue more benefits and benefit directly, as they have unfettered mobility and opportunity. They can access markets that are further away, and the maize they sell is unprocessed and requires no transformation. Additionally, men do not question their right to devote profits from maize primarily to their own concerns, nor their right to secure a high level of control over the money women make.
On the other hand, women respondents â regardless of age and income cohort â repeatedly stated that while it is hard to earn significant money from local sales of the processed maize products they make, it is also very difficult for them to enter large markets selling unprocessed, improved maize.
The difficulties women face in trying to grow maize businesses may be partly related to a lack of business acumen and experience, but a primary reason is limited personal mobility in all four communities. For example, in Sabon Birni village, Kaduna, women lamented that though the local market is not large enough to accommodate their maize processing and other agri-business ventures, they are not permitted travel to markets further afield where âthere are always people ready to buyâ.
âWomenâs benefits relate to the fact that improved maize varieties increase the absolute size of the âmaize cakeâ,â say the authors. âThey expect to get a larger slice as a consequence. However, the absolute potential of improved varieties for boosting womenâs incomes and other options of importance to women is hampered by gender norms that significantly restrict their agency.â
The implications for maize research and development are that an improved understanding of the complex relational nature of empowerment is essential when introducing new agricultural technologies.
Drought tolerant maize route out of poverty for community-based seed producer, Kenya. (Photo: Anne Wangalachi/CIMMYT)
As plant pests and diseases continue to evolve, with stresses like drought and heat intensifying, a major priority for breeders and partners is developing better stress tolerant and higher yielding varieties faster and more cost effectively.
A new project, Accelerating Genetic Gains in Maize and Wheat for Improved Livelihoods (AGG), seeks to achieve these results by speeding up genetic gains in maize and wheat breeding to deliver improved, stress resilient, nutritious seed to smallholders in 13 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and four in South Asia. The 5-year AGG project is funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the UK Department for International Development (DFID), the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), and the Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research (FFAR).
The maize component of the project brings together diverse partners, including the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) as co-implementers; national agricultural research systems (NARS); and small and medium-sized (SME) seed companies.
Ambitious targets
At the inception meeting of the maize component of AGG on July 10, 2020, project leaders, partners and funders lauded the ambitious targets that aim to bolster the resilience and better the livelihoods, food and nutritional security of millions of smallholder farmers in SSA. At least 150,000 metric tons of certified seed is expected to be produced, adopted by 10 million households, planted on 6 million hectares by 2024 and benefiting 64 million people.
âWe are developing climate resilient, nutritious, efficient, productive maize varieties for the farming community in sub-Saharan Africa. We will continue to work closely with our partners to develop product profiles, which are centered on the varieties that are really needed,â said CIMMYT Interim Deputy Director for Research Kevin Pixley.
AGG draws a solid foundation from previous projects such as Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa (DTMA), Improved Maize for Africa Soils (IMAS), Water Efficient Maize for Africa (WEMA) and Stress Tolerant Maize for Africa (STMA). Several high-yielding maize varieties that tolerate and/or resist diseases such as maize lethal necrosis (MLN), gray leaf spot (GLS), northern corn leaf blight, maize streak virus (MSV), turcicum leaf blight (TLB) and are drought-tolerant (DT), were developed and released to farmers across SSA. Varieties with nutritional traits such as nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) and quality protein maize (QPM) were also developed in the preceding initiatives.
Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa (DTMA) project monitoring and evaluation takes place in Tanzania. (Photo: Florence Sipalla/CIMMYT)
A matter of âlife or deathâ
âWhen farmers are confronted by aggressive farming challenges, they want products that address those challenges at the earliest opportunity. Waiting for years could mean the difference between life and death,â remarked David Chikoye, the director of Southern Africa Hub at IITA.
A key focus of AGG is to incorporate gender-intentionality – special attention to the needs of women farmers and consumers – from the traits bred into new varieties, through the communication and technology deployment strategies.
âAGG provides an excellent opportunity to reorient our maize breeding, seed scaling and delivery strategies for greater impact on the livelihoods of smallholder farmers, especially women and the disadvantaged communities that are not well reached so far,â said B.M. Prasanna, director of CIMMYT’s Global Maize Program and the CGIAR Research Program on Maize. âOur vision is to accelerate genetic gains to 1.5-2 percent annually across different breeding pipelines in the 13 participating countries in SSA and to reach over 10 million households with improved varieties.â
AGG will strengthen the capacity of partners to achieve and sustain accelerated variety replacement — or turnover — and increase genetic gains in farmersâ fields.
Old vs new
Many improved varieties have been released in the past decade. However, the turnover of old and obsolete varieties with new and improved ones is not happening as quickly as anticipated.
âWe are producing good products and getting them out, but not at the speed that farmers need. How do we make it possible and profitable for seed companies to quickly introduce new hybrids?â posed Gary Atlin, program officer at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. âWe need to move towards a breeding and seed system where we know that we can develop a new product in 4 or 5 years and then get it to the farmers much more quickly. This is a complex problem.â
To enhance AGGâs ability to identify new products that perform well for farmers under their challenging circumstances, on-farm testing will be scaled up significantly.
Guest of honor, Ethiopiaâs Minister of State for Agriculture Mandefro Nigussie, lauded CIMMYTâs support in improving the resilience and productivity of maize and wheat in the country. He observed that this has helped improve maize productivity in Ethiopia from around 2 tons/ha to about 4 tons/ha over the past two decades.
âWe consider such a huge accomplishment as a combination of efforts in germplasm development and breeding efforts of CIMMYT and the Ethiopian national programs. That partnership will flourish further in this new project,â he said.
Accelerating Genetic Gains in Maize and Wheat (AGG), a project led by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), brings together partners in the global science community and in national agricultural research and extension systems to accelerate the development of higher-yielding varieties of maize and wheat â two of the world’s most important staple crops.
Specifically focusing on supporting smallholder farmers in low- and middle-income countries, the project uses innovative methods that improve breeding efficiency and precision to produce varieties that are climate-resilient, pest- and disease-resistant, and highly nutritious, targeted to farmersâ specific needs.
The maize component of the project serves 13 target countries: Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe in eastern and southern Africa; and Benin, Ghana, Mali, and Nigeria in West Africa. The wheat component of the project serves six countries: Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan in South Asia; and Ethiopia and Kenya in sub-Saharan Africa.
This project builds on the impact of the Delivering Genetic Gain in Wheat (DGGW) and Stress Tolerant Maize for Africa (STMA) projects.
Objectives
The project aims to accelerate the development and delivery of more productive, climate-resilient, gender-responsive, market-demanded, and nutritious maize and wheat varieties in support of sustainable agricultural transformation in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
To encourage adoption of new varieties, the project works to improve equitable access, especially by women, to seed and information, as well as capacity building in breeding, disease surveillance, and seed marketing.
Funders
Project funding is provided by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, the United States Agency for International Development and the Foundation for Food and Agricultural Research (FFAR).
Key partners
The primary partners for this project are the national agricultural research systems in the project target countries and, for the maize component, the International Institute for Tropical Agriculture (IITA) and small and medium enterprise (SME) seed companies.
Scientific and technical steering committees
We are grateful to our excellent maize and wheat scientific and technical steering committees for their suggestions and thoughtful question on key issues for the success of AGG. Read about the recommendations from the maize steering committee here and the wheat steering committee here.
Year 1 Executive Summary
In its first year of operation, AGG has made great strides in collaboration with our national partners towards the project goals âdespite the unprecedented challenges of working through a global pandemic. For specific milestones achieved, we invite you to review our AGG Year 1 Executive Summary and Impact Report (PDF).
Year 2 Executive Summary
AGG has made progress towards all outcomes. Our scientists are implementing substantial modifications to breeding targets and schemes. AGG is also in a continuous improvement process for the partnership modalities, pursuing co-ownership and co-implementation that builds the capacities of all involved. For specific milestones achieved, we invite you to review our AGG Year 2 Executive Summary and Impact Report (PDF).
The outbreak of maize lethal necrosis (MLN) disease in east Africa in 2011 (first reported in Kenyaâs South Rift Valley) was a major concern, given that maize is the regionâs most important staple crop. This disease is caused by co-infection of plants with two viruses â maize chlorotic mottle virus (MCMV) and sugarcane mosaic virus (SCMV) â and can cause yield losses of up to 90%. It spread rapidly across east Africa, compromising food and economic security for several million smallholder farmers.
MLN is a complex challenge that must be addressed through a multipronged approach. While significant advances have been made through intensive efforts by CIMMYT and other partners in terms of identifying and developing MLN tolerant or resistant hybrids, the rapid spread of the epidemic over the last few years remains a concern for farming communities, policy makers, national plant protection organization and the commercial seed sector, as well as the international scientific community.
There is also increasing suspicion that commercial seed flows may have been the initial source of the dissemination of the MLN-causing viruses over large distances, and it is thought that transmission of MCMV through contaminated maize seed continues to be a major risk factor in the spread of MLN across east Africa and beyond. However, there is a lack of reliable information on various aspects of MLN epidemiology, including the rate of MCMV transmission through seed.
The project on âPreventing Seed Transmission of Maize Lethal Necrosis in Africaâ aims to generate a better understanding of these epidemiological issues to allow for more effective control of MCMV transmission through commercial seed, support the development of effective, evidence-based phytosanitary regulations, reduce MLN disease pressure in eastern Africa, and curb the spread to non-endemic countries in other parts of the continent.
Objectives
Develop appropriate protocols for assessing MLN transmission through seed
Develop reliable and cost-effective diagnostic protocols for curbing the spread of MCMV/MLN through seed implemented by NPPOs and commercial seed companies.
Determine the rates of transmission for the East African and US (Hawaiian) isolates of MCMV in tropical, subtropical and temperate maize germplasm
Understand the mode of MCMV transmission through commercial seed within endemic areas to allow more effective control
Determine the distribution of MCMV in maize seed, and the effects of seed treatments on virus transmission
Identify economical treatment methods to reduce or prevent MCMV transmission through seed for commercial seed industry and casual seed trade
Generate detailed understanding of the role of root debris on persistence of MCMV in the soil, the persistence of the virus in different soil types, and the duration of virus viability in the soil
Disseminate science-based knowledge and evidence generated through this project to National Plant Protection Organizations (NPPOs) and Ministries of Agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa
The name TELA is derived from the Latin word tutela, which means “protection.” The TELA Maize Project is a public-private partnership led by the African Agricultural Technology Foundation (AATF) working towards the commercialization of transgenic drought-tolerant and insect-protected (TELAÂź) maize varieties to enhance food security in sub-Saharan Africa. Launched in 2018, the TELA Maize Project builds on progress made from a decade of breeding work under the Water Efficient Maize for Africa (WEMA) Project.
Africa is a drought-prone continent, making farming risky for millions of smallholders who rely on rainfall to water their crops. Climate change will only worsen the problem. Identifying ways to mitigate drought risk, stabilize yields, and encourage small-scale farmers to adopt best management practices is fundamental to realizing food security and improved livelihoods for the continent. Drought is just one of the many challenges facing sub-Saharan African farmers. Insects pose additional challenges as farmers in the developing world have little or no resources to effectively manage them. Insect protection complements and protects yield made possible through research and development.
Through TELA, AATF and its partners are pursuing the regulatory approval and dissemination of new biotech/genetically-modified maize seeds containing either an insect-resistant trait or the stacked insect-resistant and drought-tolerant traits across seven target countries in Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania and Uganda). The transgenic technology, including gene constructs, transformation and other recombinant DNA technologies, and other proprietary information and materials regarding the transgenes, owned by Bayer CropScience LP (formerly Monsanto Company), is licensed royalty-free to the partners for use in the project.
To the extent where their germplasm is transformed/incorporated into finished lines, Bayer and CIMMYT further grant AATF the license to commercially release the transgenic maize varieties within the partner countries, provided that no royalty fee shall be charged by AATF/its sublicensees, and subject to compliance with all regulatory, biosafety and stewardship requirements. CIMMYTâs non-transgenic parental lines which may be used for introgression in this project have been shared under the terms of the Standard Material Transfer Agreement (SMTA) of the Plant Treaty, and remain available to other third parties outside the project in the same way. The partner countries are in different stages of the approval process to test and commercialize TELAÂź hybrids, which will determine when farmers can access the improved TELA seeds.
Seed companies can receive license rights to produce and commercialize the new TELAÂź hybrids under their private brand from AATF in due course. Licensed seed companies will access the technology royalty-free for them to produce and sell the seeds to farmers at prevailing market prices. Better yield performance, combined with improved seed quality, will deliver more value to farmers and create more demand and potential for the seed brand.
Smallholder farmers benefit from TELA maize, as it provides better drought tolerance, protection against stem borers, and partial but significant protection against fall armyworm. As a result, smallholders will spend less money on insecticides and reduce their exposure to these chemicals, besides benefiting from improved yields and better grain quality.
A farm worker applies fertilizer in a field of Staha maize for seed production at Suba Agro’s Mbezi farm in Tanzania. (Photo: Peter Lowe/CIMMYT)
Crop yields in sub-Saharan Africa are generally low. This is in large part because of low fertilizer use. A recent study of six countries in sub-Saharan Africa showed that just 35% of farmers applied fertilizer. Some possible reasons for this could be that farmers may be unaware of the efficacy of fertilizer use; or have degraded soils that do not respond to fertilizer; they may not have the cash to purchase it; or because unpredictable rainfall makes such investments risky. It may also be because local fertilizer prices make their use insufficiently profitable for many farmers.
To better understand the potential fertilizer demand in a particular location, it is important to know how crops respond to fertilizer under local conditions, but it is critical to understand crop responses in terms of economic returns. This requires information about local market prices of fertilizers and other inputs, as well as the prices that a farmer could receive from selling the crop.
While national-level fertilizer prices may be available, it is necessary to consider the extent to which prices vary within countries, reflecting transportation costs and other factors. In the absence of such data, analysis of household-level behaviors requires assumptions about the prices smallholder farmers face â assumptions which may not be valid. For example, evaluations of the returns to production technologies settings have often assumed spatially invariant input and output prices or, in other words, that all farmers in a country face the same set of prices. This is at odds with what we know about economic remoteness and the highly variable market access conditions under which African smallholders operate.
An obstacle to using empirical data on sub-national disparities in fertilizer prices is the scarcity of such data. A new study focused on the spatial discrepancies in fertilizer prices. The study compiled local market urea price in eighteen countries in sub-Saharan Africa for the period between 2010-2018 and used spatial interpolation models â using points with known values to approximate values at other unknown points â to predict local prices at locations for which no empirical data was available. It was conducted by scientists at University of California, Davis, the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). The authors note that this is the first major attempt to systematically describe the spatial variability of fertilizer prices within the target countries and test the ability to estimate the price at unsampled locations.
Predicted relative urea price (local price divided by the observed median national price) for areas with crop land in eight East African countries.
âOur study uncovers considerable spatial variation in fertilizer prices within African countries and gives a much more accurate representation of the economic realities faced by African smallholders than the picture suggested by using national average prices,â said Camila Bonilla Cedrez, PhD Candidate at University of California, Davis. âWe show that in many countries, this variation can be predicted for unsampled locations by fitting models of prices as a function of longitude, latitude, and additional predictor variables that capture aspects of market access, demand, and environmental conditions.â
Urea prices were generally found to be more expensive in remote areas or away from large urban centers, ports of entry or blending facilities. There were some exceptions, though. In Benin, Ghana and Nigeria, prices went down when moving away from the coast, with the possible explanation being market prices in areas with higher demand are lower. In other locations, imports of fertilizer from neighboring countries with lower prices may be affecting prices in another country or region, much like political influence. Politically, well-connected villages can receive more input subsidies compared to the less connected ones.
âThe performance of our price estimation methods and the simplicity of our approach suggest that large scale price mapping for rural areas is a cost-effective way to provide more useful price information for guiding policy, targeting interventions, and for enabling more realistic applied microeconomic research. For example, local price estimates could be incorporated into household-survey-based analysis of fertilizer adoption,â explained Jordan Chamberlin, CIMMYT spatial economist. âIn addition, such predictive âprice mapsâ can be incorporated into targeting and planning frameworks for agricultural investments. For example, to target technology promotion efforts to the areas where those technologies are most likely to be profitable.â
Predicted relative urea price (local price divided by the observed median national price) for areas with crop land in nine West African countries.
âThe evidence we have compiled in this paper suggests that, while investments in more comprehensive and spatially representative price data collection would be very useful, we may utilize spatial price prediction models to extend the value of existing data to better reflect local price variation through interpolation,â explained Robert J. Hijmans, professor at University of California, Davis. âEven if imperfect, such estimates almost certainly better reflect farmersâ economic realities than assumptions of spatially constant prices within a given country. We propose that spatial price estimation methods such as the ones we employ here serve for better approximating heterogeneous economic market landscapes.â
This study has illustrated new ways for incorporating spatial variation in prices into efforts to understand the profitability of agricultural technologies across rural areas in sub-Saharan Africa. Â The authors suggest that an important avenue for future empirical work would be to evaluate the extent to which the subnational price variation documented is a useful explanatory factor for observed variation in smallholder fertilizer use in sub-Saharan Africa, after controlling for local agronomic responses and output prices. One way to do that may be to integrate input and output price predictions into spatial crop models, and then evaluate the degree to which modeled fertilizer use profitability predicts observed fertilizer use rates across different locations.
Taking Maize Agronomy to Scale in Africa (TAMASA) is a 4-year project seeking to improve productivity and profitability for small-scale maize farmers in Ethiopia, Nigeria and Tanzania.
The overall purpose of TAMASA is to use innovative approaches to transform agronomy that:
Use available geospatial and other data and analytics to map maize areas, soil constraints, and actual and yields at different scale.
Work with service providers (i.e. input suppliers, government and private research and extension services, agro-dealers, and others) to identify and co-develop systems and applications that transform this data and information to useable products that support their businesses or programs to reach clients more effectively
Build capacity in national programs to support and sustain these approaches.
The core products and services of this project include:
Annual assessments and digital maps of maize growing areas, actual and attainable yields in core research areas or focal areas.
Decision-support tools for ex-ante spatial analysis, nutrient management, fertilizer formulation and variety selection.
Open-access databases of agronomic data.
Increased capacity in national programs and partners through in-country data science and software application training and mentoring.
Profitability under different fertilization recommendation scenarios in Ethiopia and Tanzania, measured in U.S. dollars per hectare.
What fertilizer application will give me the best returns? What maize crop variety should I use?
Each farmer faces constraints related to weather uncertainty, soil fertility management challenges, or access to finance and markets. To improve their yields and incomes, African smallholder farmers need agronomic advice adapted to their specific circumstances. The challenge is even greater in sub-Saharan Africa, where agricultural production landscapes are highly diverse. Yet traditional agronomic research was not designed to fit with complex agroecological regions and farming systems. Compounding the problem, research organizations often have limited resources to develop the necessary experiments to generate farm- and site-specific agronomic advice at scale.
âAgronomic research is traditionally not equipped to consider spatial or socio-economic diversity among the millions of farmers it targets,â said Sebastian Palmas, data scientist at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) in Nairobi, Kenya.
Palmas presented some of the learnings of the Taking Maize Agronomy to Scale in Africa (TAMASA) project during a science seminar called âA spatial ex ante framework for guiding agronomic investments in sub-Saharan Africaâ on March, 4, 2019.
The project, funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, has used data to improve the way agronomic research for development is done. Researchers working on the TAMASA project addressed this challenge by using available geospatial information and other big data resources, along with new data science tools such as machine learning and Microsoftâs AI for Earth. They were able to produce and package information that can help farmers, research institutions and governments take better decisions on what agronomic practices and investments will give them the best returns.
By adapting the Quantitative Evaluation of the Fertility of Tropical Soils (QUEFTS) model to the conditions of small farmers in TAMASA target countries (Ethiopia, Nigeria and Tanzania), using different layers of information, CIMMYT and its partners have developed a versatile geospatial tool for evaluating crop yield responses to fertilizer applications in different areas of a given country. Because calculations integrate spatial variation of fertilizer and grain prices, the tool evaluates the profitability â a key factor influencing farmersâ fertilizer usage â for each location. The project team can generate maps that show, for instance, the estimated agronomic and economic returns to different fertilizer application scenarios.
The TAMASA team plans to publish the code and user-friendly interface of this new geospatial assessment tool later this year. (Photo: CIMMYT)
Making profits grow
These tools could potentially help national fertilizer subsidy programs be more targeted and impactful, like the ambitious Ethiopiaâs Fertilizer Blending initiative which distributes up to 250,000 tons of fertilizer annually. Initial calculations showed that, by optimizing diammonium phosphate (DAP) and urea application, the profitability per hectare could improve by 14 percent on average, compared to the current fertilizer recommendations.
Such an approach could generate farm-specific advice at scale and boost farmersâ incomes. It could also provide insights on many different issues, like estimating market demand for a new fertilizer blend, or the estimated quantity of additional fertilizer required to bring about a targeted maize yield increase.
Future extensions of the framework may incorporate varietal differences in nutrient management responses, and thus enable seed companies to use the framework to predict where a new maize hybrid would perform best. Similarly, crop breeders could adapt this ex ante assessment tool to weigh the pros and cons of a specific trait and the potential impact for farmers.
The TAMASA team plans to publish the code and user-friendly interface of this new geospatial assessment tool later this year.
