Scientists from the Research Institute of Plant Genetic Resources in Uzbekistan (RIPGR) attended training on gene bank management and genetic resources, coordinated by CIMMYT-TĂŒrkiye on 13-20 April 2024. Hosted at the Turkish Department of Agricultural Economics and Project Management (TAGEM), the training is supported by the World Bank Group, which is helping Uzbekistan to modernize the countryâs agriculture. With one of the highest levels of wheat consumption in Central Asia, the modernization project aims to increase Uzbekistanâs wheat yield and meet demand for the crop.
The course included lectures on status and activity of the Turkish Seed Germplasm Bank (TSGB), policy instruments and international perspectives on plant genetic resources, herbarium techniques, biotechnology studies, and genetic resources. Uzbek scientists also became acquainted with scientific laboratories, visiting the field station in Ä°kizce GölbaĆı and learned about the breeding, pathology, and agronomy activities at the station as well as the collaboration activities between CGIAR Research Centers and TAGEM.
Country-wide expertise
In addition to sessions at CIMMYT’s office in TĂŒrkiye, participants also visited the National Gene Bank in Ankara and the National Gene Bank of Izmir.
At the latter location, experts delivered sessions on a range of topics, such as the Plant Diversity and Genetic Resources Program of TĂŒrkiye; in vitro and cryopreservation techniques; the conservation, data recording, and documentation of plant genetic resources; conservation and utilization of vegetable genetic resources; conservation studies on mushroom genetic resources; studies on wheat genetic resources and wheat breeding at the international winter wheat breeding program; regional collaboration to combat wheat rust disease in Central and West Asia and North Africa (CWANA); and international winter wheat breeding strategies.
In addition to the seminar sessions, the participants also visited several locations to familiarize themselves with scientific processes in field and laboratory conditions. They visited the field gene banks, guided by Fatih ĂaÄir, who provided brief information about the fruit genetic resources activities of TĂŒrkiye. They also visited the plant collection activities and herbarium techniques laboratory, the National Gene Bank, Herbarium, Fungarium & Seed Physiology Laboratory of the Plant Genetics Resources Department & Plant Tissue Center, and the Regional Cereal Rust Research Center.
The importance of the training course for Uzbek scientists is to study the system of rational use, conservation, and management of plant genetic resources of TĂŒrkiye and to introduce new innovative knowledge in Uzbekistan. It also consists of discussing aspects related to bilateral cooperation and sustainable development in the field of plant genetic resources as well gene bank management.
The delegation from Uzbekistan, on behalf of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Uzbekistan, and the director of the Research Institute of Plant Genetic Resources, Zafarjon Mashrapovich Ziyaev, expressed their deep gratitude to the organizers and departments for this training course.
Leading crop simulation models used by a global team of agricultural scientists to simulate wheat production up to 2050 showed large wheat yield reductions due to climate change for Africa and South Asia, where food security is already a problem.
The model predicted average declines in wheat yields of 15% in African countries and 16% in South Asian countries by mid-century, as described in the 2021 paper âClimate impact and adaptation to heat and drought stress of regional and global wheat production,â published in the science journal Environmental Research Letters. Climate change will lower global wheat production by 1.9% by mid-century, with the most negative impacts occurring in Africa and South Asia, according to the research.
âStudies have already shown that wheat yields fell by 5.5% during 1980-2010, due to rising global temperatures,â said Diego N.L. Pequeno, wheat crop modeler at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and lead author of the paper. âWe chose several models to simulate climate change impacts and also simulated wheat varieties that featured increased heat tolerance, early vigor against late season drought, and late flowering to ensure normal biomass accumulation. Finally, we simulated use of additional nitrogen fertilizer to maximize the expression of these adaptive traits.â
Wheat fields in Ankara, Turkey, where data was used for crop model simulation (Photo: Marta Lopes/CIMMYT)
The wheat simulation models employed â CROPSIM-CERES, CROPSIM, and Nwheat within the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, DSSAT v.4.6 â have been widely used to study diverse cropping systems around the world, according to Pequeno.
âThe DSSAT models simulated the elevated CO2 stimulus on wheat growth, when N is not limiting,â he said. âOur study is the first to include combined genetic traits for early vigor, heat tolerance, and late flowering in the wheat simulation.â
Several factors, including temperature, water deficit, and water access, have been identified as major causes in recent wheat yield variability worldwide. The DSSAT wheat models simulate the impact of temperature, including heat stress, water balance, drought stress, or nitrogen leaching from heavy rainfall.
âGenerally, small and low-volume wheat producers suffered large negative impacts due to future climate changes, indicating that less developed countries may be the most affected,â Pequeno added.
Climate change at high latitudes (France, Germany, and northern China, all large wheat-producing countries/region) positively impacted wheat grain yield, as warming temperatures benefit wheat growth through an extended early spring growing season. But warmer temperatures and insufficient rainfall by mid-century, as projected at the same latitude in Russia and the northwestern United States, will reduce rainfed wheat yields â a finding that contradicts outcomes of some previous studies.
At lower latitudes that are close to the tropics, already warm, and experiencing insufficient rainfall for food crops and therefore depending on irrigation (North India, Pakistan, Bangladesh), rising heat will damage wheat crops and seriously reduce yields. China, the largest wheat producer in the world, is projected to have mixed impacts from climate change but, at a nation-wide scale, the study showed a 1.2% increase in wheat yields.
âOur results showed that the adaptive traits could help alleviate climate change impacts on wheat, but responses would vary widely, depending on the growing environment and management practices used,â according to Pequeno. This implies that wheat breeding for traits associated with climate resilience is a promising climate change adaptation option, but its effect will vary among regions. Its positive impact could be limited by agronomical aspects, particularly under rainfed and low soil N conditions, where water and nitrogen stress limit the benefits from improved cultivars.
Extreme weather events could also become more frequent. Those were possibly underestimated in this study, as projections of heat damage effects considered only changes in daily absolute temperatures but not possible changes in the frequency of occurrence. Another limitation is that most crop models lack functions for simulating excess water (e.g., flooding), an important cause of global wheat yield variability.
This study was supported by the CGIAR Research Program on Wheat agri-food systems (CRP WHEAT; 2012-2021), the CGIAR Platform for Big Data in Agriculture, the International Wheat Yield Partnership (IWYP115 Project), the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the World Bank, the Mexican government through the Sustainable Modernization of Traditional Agriculture (MasAgro) project, and the International Treaty of Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture and its Benefit-sharing Fund for co-funding the project, with financial support from the European Union.
Several recent studies document the long-term health and economic benefits from the âGreen Revolutionâ â the widespread adoption of high-yielding staple crop varieties during the last half of the 20th century â and argue for continued investment in the development and use of such varieties.
âOur estimates provide compelling evidence that the health benefits of broad-based increases in agricultural productivity should not be overlooked,â the authors state. âFrom a policy perspective, government subsidies for inputs leading to a green revolution as well as investments in extension and R&D programs seem to be important.â
Norman Borlaug (fourth from right) shows a plot of Sonora-64 wheat â one of the semi-dwarf, high-yield, disease-resistant varieties that was key to the Green Revolution â to a group of young international trainees at CIMMYT’s experimental station in Ciudad Obregon, Sonora state, Mexico. (Photo: CIMMYT)
The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the fragility of the global food system and the need to transform it, increasing its environmental and economic resilience to withstand future threats, and underpinning healthier diets. The studies suggest that improved versions of cereal crops such as rice, wheat, and maize can play a key role.
âOur work speaks to the importance of supporting innovation and technology adoption in agriculture as a means of fostering economic development, improved health, and poverty reduction, said author Jan von der Goltz. âIt also suggests that it is reasonable to view with some alarm the steady decline in funding for cereal crop improvement over the last few decades in sub-Saharan Africa, the continent with least diffusion of modern varieties.â
Likewise, a study co-authored by Prashant Bharadwaj of the University of California, San Diego, concluded that farmer adoption of high-yielding crop varieties (HYVs) in India reduced infant mortality dramatically across the country. Between 1960 and 2000, infant deaths dropped from 163.8 to 66.6 per 1,000 live births, and this occurred during the decades of Indiaâs wheat productivity leap from 0.86 to 2.79 tons per hectare, as a result of HYV adoption and improved farming practices.
âWhat both of these papers do is to carefully establish a causal estimate of how HYVs affect infant mortality, by only comparing children born in the same location at different points in time, when HYV use was different, and by checking that mortality before arrival of HYVs was trending similarly in places that would receive different amount of HYVs,â Bharadwaj said.
âIn the absence of a randomized control trial, these econometric techniques produce the best causal estimate of a phenomenon as important as the spread of HYVs during and after the Green Revolution,â he added. These thoughts were echoed by University of California San Diego professor Gordon McCord, a co-author of the global study.
Recent studies indicate that the Green Revolution also had long-term economic impacts, which also affected health outcomes.
In a 2021 update to the 2018 paper âTwo Blades of Grass: The Impact of the Green Revolution,â Douglas Gollin, Professor of Development Economics at Oxford University and co-authors found that, in 90 countries where high-yielding varieties were adopted between 1965 and 2010, food crop yields increased by 44% and that, had this adoption not occurred, GDP per capita in the developing world could be half of what it is today.
Even a 10-year delay of the Green Revolution would, in 2010, have cost 17% of GDP per capita in the developing world, with a cumulative GDP loss of $83 trillion, equivalent to one year of current global GDP.
These GDP and health impacts were boosted by a related reduction in population growth. By observing causal inference at country, regional and developing world levels, and using a novel long-term impact assessment method, the study authors detected a trend: as living standards improved for rural families, they generally wanted to invest more in their children and have fewer.
âOur estimates suggest that the world would have contained more than 200 million additional people in 2010, if the onset of the Green Revolution had been delayed for ten years,â Gollin and his co-authors stated. This lower population growth seems to have increased the relative size of the working age population, which furthered GDP growth.
Ethiopian farmers give feedback to CGIAR researchers about durum wheat varieties. (Photo: C.Fadda/Bioversity International) (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)
A long-term investment in system transformation
It takes time from the point of an intervention to when broad health impacts can be observed in the population, the authors note. For example, although the development of modern high-yielding varieties began in the 1950s and 60s, the rate of adoption did not speed up until the 1980s, 1990s, and even into the 2000s, with evidence from sub-Saharan Africa showing that variety adoption has increased by as much in the 2000s as in the four preceding decades.
In addition, any nutrition and food security strategy which aims to reach the second Sustainable Development Goal of feeding 9 billion by 2050 must incorporate wider system transformation solutions, such as zero-emissions agriculture, affordable, diverse diets and increased land conservation.
As Gollin explained, âThe Green Revolution taught us that we need to approach productivity increases, especially in staple crop yields, differently. The challenge now is more complex: we need to get the same productivity increases, with fewer inputs and resources, more environmental awareness, and in larger quantities for more people.â
In part, this means increasing productivity on existing agricultural land with positive environmental and social impacts, according to Bram Govaerts, director general of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT).
âBreeding and sharing more productive, hardy crop varieties is as important as ever,â Govaerts said, âbut also engaging farmers â in our case, smallholders â in shared research and innovation efforts to bridge yield gaps, build climate-resilient farming systems, and open access to better nutrition and market opportunities.â
Cover photo: Children eat lunch at a mobile crĂšche outside Delhi, India. (Photo: Atul Loke/ODI) (CC BY-NC 2.0)
In this op-ed, Harvard Professor Gabriela Soto Laveaga stresses the importance of tackling hunger as more than a technical problem to be addressed through scientific advancement alone, praising CGIAR for its community-centered & inclusive approach to food systems amid the climate crisis.
At the 8th World Congress on Conservation Agriculture (8WCCA), Martin Kropff, Director General of CIMMYT, argued that “agriculture cannot take a toll on the environment”, praising conservation agriculture for its contribution to building resilience to drought.
Sub-Saharan Africa is undergoing important transformations, including climate change, population growth, urbanization and migration flows, and growth in digital technologies. What can we say about the likely development trajectories that African rural economies are on, and the implications for poor farming households? These are central questions for Jordan Chamberlin, an economist at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) in Kenya.
Chamberlinâs desk is covered with screens teeming with numbers, complex mathematical equations, lines of code and aerial views of African landscapes. He combines traditional microeconomic analysis with geospatial modelling skills to study some of the ways in which rural transformations are occurring. In this era of big data, he examines the wealth of spatial and socioeconomic datasets to explore the relationships between drivers of change and smallholder welfare, sometimes revealing surprising insights on how rural communities in Africa are evolving.
âAre commercial farms good or bad for neighboring smallholder farmers? Which households can benefit from the rapidly evolving rural land markets in Africa? What drives migration between rural areas? These are some examples of the complex but increasingly important questions that inform how we understand the evolution of agri-food systems in developing countries,â Chamberlin explains. âFortunately, we also increasingly have access to new data that helps us explore these issues.â
In addition to household survey datasets â the bread and butter of applied social scientists â todayâs researchers are also able to draw on an ever-expanding set of geospatial data that helps us to better contextualize the decisions smallholder farmers make.
He cites current work, which seeks to understand input adoption behaviors through better measurement of the biophysical and marketing contexts in which small farms operate. âEvidence suggests that low use rates of inorganic fertilizer by smallholders is due in part to poor expected returns on such investments,â he explains, âwhich are the result of site-specific agronomic responses, rainfall uncertainty, variation in input-output price ratios, and other factors.â
We are increasingly able to control for such factors explicitly: one of Chamberlinâs recent papers shows the importance of soil organic carbon for location-specific economic returns to fertilizer investments in Tanzania. âAfter all, farmers do not care about yields for yieldsâ sake â they make agronomic investments on the basis of how those investments affect their economic welfare.â
Better data and models may help to explain why farmers sometimes do not adopt technologies that we generally think of as profitable. A related strand of his research seeks to better model the spatial distribution of rural market prices.
Jordan Chamberlin (left) talks to a farmer in Ethiopiaâs Tigray region in 2019, while conducting research on youth outmigration from rural areas. (Photo: Jordan Chamberlin)
A spatial economistâs journey on Earth
Ever since his experience as a Peace Corps volunteer in Paraguay, where he worked as a beekeeping specialist, Chamberlin knew he wanted to spend his professional life working with smallholder farmers. He wanted to better understand how rural development takes place, and how policies and investments can help rural households to improve their welfare.
In pursuit of these interests, his academic journey took him from anthropology to quantitative geography, before leading him to agricultural economics. âWhile my fundamental interest in rural development has not changed, the analytical tools I have preferred have evolved over the years, and my training reflects that evolution,â he says.
Along with his research interests, he has always been passionate about working with institutions within the countries where his research has focused. While working with the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in Ethiopia, he helped establish a policy-oriented GIS lab at the Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI). Years later, as part of his work with Michigan State University, he served as director of capacity building at the Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute (IAPRI), a not-for-profit Zambian research organization. He continues to serve as an external advisor on PhD committees, and considers mentorship a key part of his professional commitments.
He joined CIMMYT at the Ethiopia office in 2015 as spatial economist, part of the foresight and ex ante group of the Socioeconomics program.
As part of his research portfolio, he explores the role of new technologies, data sources and extension methods in the scaling of production technologies. Under the Taking Maize Agronomy to Scale in Africa (TAMASA) project, one area he has been working on is how we may better design location-specific agronomic advisory tools. Working with the Nutrient Expert tool, developed by the African Plant Nutrition Institute (APNI), he and his research team have conducted randomized control trials in Ethiopia and Nigeria to evaluate the impacts of such decision-support tools on farmer investments and productivity outcomes. They found that such tools appear to contribute to productivity gains, although tool design matters â for example, Nigerian farmers were more likely to take up site-specific agronomic recommendations when such information was accompanied by information about uncertainty of financial returns.
Jordan Chamberlin (center) talks to colleagues during a staff gathering in Nairobi. (Photo. Joshua Masinde/CIMMYT)
Creative rethinking
While Chamberlinâs research portfolio is diverse, one commonality is the drive to use new data and tools to better guide how development resources are allocated.
âGiven the scarcity of resources available to governments and their partners, it is important to have sound empirical foundations for the allocation of these resources. Within CIMMYT, I see my role as part of a multidisciplinary team whose goal is to generate such empirical guidance,â he says.
This research also contributes to better design of agricultural development policies.
âEven though many of the research topics that my team addresses are not traditional areas of emphasis within CIMMYTâs socioeconomic work, I hope that we are demonstrating the value of broad thinking about development questions, which are of fundamental importance to one of our core constituencies: the small farmers of the regionâs maize and wheat-based farming systems.â
For smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa, new agricultural technologies such as improved maize varieties offer numerous benefits â increased incomes, lower workloads and better food security, among others. However, when new technologies are introduced, they can denaturalize and expose gender norms and power relations because their adoption inevitably requires women and men to renegotiate the rules of the game. The adoption of new varieties will often be accompanied by a number of related decisions on the allocation of farm labor, the purchase and use of inorganic fertilizers, switching crops between women- and men-managed plots, and the types of benefit household members expect to secure may change.
In an article published this month in Gender, Technology and Development, researchers from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) explore how women in Nigeria negotiate these new power dynamics to access and secure the benefits of improved maize varieties and, more broadly, to expand their decision-making space.
Using focus group and interview data collected as part of the GENNOVATE project, the authors draw on case studies from four villages â two in the northern states of Kaduna and Plateau; two in the southwestern state of Oyo â to develop an understanding of the relationship between gender norms, womenâs ability and willingness to express their agency, and the uptake of agricultural technologies. âThis is an important step toward improving the capacity of agricultural research for development to design and scale innovations,â say the authors. âAchieving this ambition is highly relevant to maize.â
The results were similar across all four sites. The authors found that women in each area were constrained by powerful gender norms which privilege male agency and largely frown upon womenâs empowerment, thus limiting their ability to maximize the benefits from improved varieties or realize their agency in other domains.
All women respondents remarked that improved maize varieties were easy to adopt, have higher yields and mature quickly, which meant that income flows started earlier and helped them meet household expenditures on time. They prioritized the contribution of improved maize to securing household food security, which helped them meet their ascribed gender roles as food providers.
âAt the same time though, women felt they could not maximize their benefits from improved maize varieties due to menâs dominance in decision-making,â the authors explain. âThis was particularly the case for married women.â
âMen are meant to travel far â not womenâ
Woman selling white maize at Bodija market in Ibadan, Nigeria. (Photo: Adebayo O./IITA)
Embedded gender norms â particularly those relating to mobility â infuse the wider environment and mean that womenâs access to opportunities is considerably more restricted than it is for men.
The findings demonstrate that both women and men farmers secure benefits from improved maize varieties. However, men accrue more benefits and benefit directly, as they have unfettered mobility and opportunity. They can access markets that are further away, and the maize they sell is unprocessed and requires no transformation. Additionally, men do not question their right to devote profits from maize primarily to their own concerns, nor their right to secure a high level of control over the money women make.
On the other hand, women respondents â regardless of age and income cohort â repeatedly stated that while it is hard to earn significant money from local sales of the processed maize products they make, it is also very difficult for them to enter large markets selling unprocessed, improved maize.
The difficulties women face in trying to grow maize businesses may be partly related to a lack of business acumen and experience, but a primary reason is limited personal mobility in all four communities. For example, in Sabon Birni village, Kaduna, women lamented that though the local market is not large enough to accommodate their maize processing and other agri-business ventures, they are not permitted travel to markets further afield where âthere are always people ready to buyâ.
âWomenâs benefits relate to the fact that improved maize varieties increase the absolute size of the âmaize cakeâ,â say the authors. âThey expect to get a larger slice as a consequence. However, the absolute potential of improved varieties for boosting womenâs incomes and other options of importance to women is hampered by gender norms that significantly restrict their agency.â
The implications for maize research and development are that an improved understanding of the complex relational nature of empowerment is essential when introducing new agricultural technologies.
Using data from 12 communities across four Indian states, an international team of researchers has shed new light on how women are gradually innovating and influencing decision-making in wheat-based systems.
The study, published this month in The European Journal of Development Research, challenges stereotypes of men being the sole decision-makers in wheat-based systems and performing all the work. The authors, which include researchers from the CGIAR Research Program on Wheat (WHEAT)-funded GENNOVATE initiative, show that women adopt specific strategies to further their interests in the context of wheat-based livelihoods.
In parts of India, agriculture has become increasingly feminized in response to rising migration of men from rural areas to cities. An increasing proportion of women, relative to men, are working in the fields. However, little is known about whether these women are actually taking key decisions.
The authors distinguish between high gender gap communities â identified as economically vibrant and highly male-dominant â and low gender gap communities, which are also economically vibrant but where women have a stronger say and more room to maneuver.
The study highlights six strategies women adopt to participate actively in decision-making. These range from less openly challenging strategies that the authors term acquiescence, murmuring, and quiet co-performance (typical of high gender gap communities), to more assertive ones like active consultation, women managing, and finally, women deciding (low gender gap communities).
In acquiescence, for example, women are fully conscious that men do not expect them to take part in agricultural decision-making, but do not articulate any overt forms of resistance.
In quiet co-performance, some middle-income women in high gender gap communities begin to quietly support men’s ability to innovate, for example by helping to finance the innovation, and through carefully nuanced ‘suggestions’ or âadvice.’ They donât openly question that men take decisions in wheat production. Rather, they appear to use male agency to support their personal and household level goals.
In the final strategy, women take all decisions in relation to farming and innovation. Their husbands recognize this process is happening and support it.
A wheat farmer in India. (Photo: J. Cumes/CIMMYT)
âOne important factor in stronger womenâs decision-making capacity is male outmigration. This is a reality in several of the low gender gap villages studiedâand it is a reality in many other communities in India. Another is educationâmany women and their daughters talked about how empowering this is,â said gender researcher and lead-author Cathy Farnworth.
In some communities, the study shows, women and men are adapting by promoting womenâs âmanagerialâ decision-making. However, the study also shows that in most locations the extension services have failed to recognize the new reality of male absence and women decision-makers. This seriously hampers women, and is restricting agricultural progress.
Progressive village heads are critical to progress, too. In some communities, they are inclusive of women but in others, they marginalize women. Input suppliers â including machinery providers â also have a vested interest in supporting women farm managers. Unsurprisingly, without the support of extension services, village heads, and other important local actors, womenâs ability to take effective decisions is reduced.
âThe co-authors, partners at Glasgow Caledonian University and in India, were very important to both obtaining the fieldwork data, and the development of the typologyâ said Lone Badstue, researcher at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and another co-author of the paper.
The new typology will allow researchers and development partners to better understand empowerment dynamics and womenâs agency in agriculture. The authors argue that development partners should support these strategies but must ultimately leave them in the hands of women themselves to manage.
âItâs an exciting study because the typology can be used by anyone to distinguish between the ways women (and men) express their ideas and get to where they wantâ, concluded Farnworth.
The Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARRCC) program is managed by the UK Met Office, supported by the World Bank and the UKâs Department for International Development (DFID). The four-year program, which started in 2018, aims to strengthen weather forecasting systems across Asia. The program will deliver new technologies and innovative approaches to help vulnerable communities use weather warnings and forecasts to better prepare for climate-related shocks.
Since 2019, as part of ARRCC, CIMMYT has been working with the Met Office and Cambridge University to pilot an early warning system to deliver wheat rust and blast disease predictions directly to farmersâ phones in Bangladesh and Nepal.
The system was first developed in Ethiopia. It uses weather information from the Met Office, the UKâs national meteorological service, along with field and mobile phone surveillance data and disease spread modeling from the University of Cambridge, to construct and deploy a near real-time early warning system.
Phase I: 12-Month Pilot Phase
Around 50,000 smallholder farmers are expected to receive improved disease warnings and appropriate management advisories in the first 12 months as part of a proof-of-concept modeling and pilot advisory extension phase focused on three critical diseases:
Wheat stripe rust in Nepal: extend and test the modelling framework developed in Ethiopia to smallholder farmers in Nepal as proof-of concept;
Wheat stem rust in Bangladesh and Nepal: while stem rust is currently not widely established in South Asia, models indicate that devastating incursion from neighboring regions is likely. This work will prepare for potential incursions of new rust strains in both countries;
Wheat blast in Bangladesh: this disease is now established in Bangladesh. This work will establish the feasibility of adapting the dispersal modelling framework to improve wheat blast predictability and deploy timely preventative management advisories to farmers.
Phase II: Scaling-out wheat rust early warning advisories, introducing wheat blast forecasting and refinement model refinement
Subject to funding approval the second year of the project will lead to validation of the wheat rust early warnings, in which researchers compare predictions with on-the-ground survey results, increasingly supplemented with farmer response on the usefulness of the warnings facilitated by national research and extension partners. Researchers shall continue to introduce and scale-out improved early warning systems for wheat blast. Concomitantly, increasing the reach of the advice to progressively larger numbers of farmers while refining the models in the light of results. We anticipate that with sufficient funding, Phase II activities could reach up to 300,000 more farmers in Nepal and Bangladesh.
Phase III: Demonstrating that climate services can increase farmersâ resilience to crop diseases
As experience is gained and more data is accumulated from validation and scaling-out, researchers will refine and improve the precision of model predictions. They will also place emphasis on efforts to train partners and operationalize efficient communication and advisory dissemination channels using information communication technologies (ICTs) for extension agents and smallholders. Experience from Ethiopia indicates that these activities are essential in achieving ongoing sustainability of early warning systems at scale. Where sufficient investment can be garnered to support the third phase of activities, it is expected that an additional 350,000 farmers will receive disease management warnings and advisories in Nepal and Bangladesh, totaling 1 million farmers over a three-year period.
Objectives
Review the feasibility of building resilience to wheat rust through meteorologically informed early warning systems.
Adapt and implement epidemiological forecasting protocols for wheat blast in South Asia.
Implement processes to institutionalize disease early warning systems in Nepal and Bangladesh.
An early warning system set to deliver wheat disease predictions directly to farmersâ phones is being piloted in Bangladesh and Nepal by interdisciplinary researchers.
Experts in crop disease, meteorology and computer science are crunching data from multiple countries to formulate models that anticipate the spread of the wheat rust and blast diseases in order to warn farmers of likely outbreaks, providing time for pre-emptive measures, said Dave Hodson, a principal scientist with the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) coordinating the pilot project.
Around 50,000 smallholder farmers are expected to receive improved disease warnings and appropriate management advisories through the one-year proof-of-concept project, as part of the UK Aid-funded Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARRCC) program.
Early action is critical to prevent crop diseases becoming endemic. The speed at which wind-dispersed fungal wheat diseases are spreading through Asia poses a constant threat to sustainable wheat production of the 130 million tons produced in the region each year.
âWheat rust and blast are caused by fungal pathogens, and like many fungi, they spread from plant to plant â and field to field â in tiny particles called spores,â said Hodson. âDisease strain mutations can overcome resistant varieties, leaving farmers few choices but to rely on expensive and environmentally-damaging fungicides to prevent crop loss.â
âThe early warning system combines climate data and epidemiology models to predict how spores will spread through the air and identifies environmental conditions where healthy crops are at risk of infection. This allows for more targeted and optimal use of fungicides.â
The system was first developed in Ethiopia. It uses weather information from the Met Office, the UKâs national meteorological service, along with field and mobile phone surveillance data and disease spread modeling from the University of Cambridge, to construct and deploy a near real-time early warning system.
CIMMYT consultant Madan Bhatta conducts field surveys using Open Data Kit (ODK) in the mid-hills of Nepal. (Photo: D. Hodson/CIMMYT)
Initial efforts focused on adapting the wheat stripe and stem rust model from Ethiopia to Bangladesh and Nepal have been successful, with field surveillance data appearing to align with the weather-driven disease early warnings, but further analysis is ongoing, said Hodson.
âIn the current wheat season we are in the process of comparing our disease forecasting models with on-the-ground survey results in both countries,â the wheat expert said.
âNext season, after getting validation from national partners, we will pilot getting our predictions to farmers through text-based messaging systems.â
CIMMYTâs strong partnerships with governmental extension systems and farmer associations across South Asia are being utilized to develop efficient pathways to get disease predictions to farmers, said Tim Krupnik, a CIMMYT Senior Scientist based in Bangladesh.
âPartnerships are essential. Working with our colleagues, we can validate and test the deployment of model-derived advisories in real-world extension settings,â Krupnik said. âThe forecasting and early warning systems are designed to reduce unnecessary fungicide use, advising it only in the case where outbreaks are expected.â
Local partners are also key for data collection to support and develop future epidemiological modelling, the development of advisory graphics and the dissemination of information, he explained.
The second stage of the project concerns the adaptation of the framework and protocols for wheat blast disease to improve existing wheat blast early warning systems already pioneered in Bangladesh.
Example of weekly stripe rust spore deposition forecast in Nepal. Darker colors represent higher predicted number of spores deposited. The early warning system combines weather information from the Met Office with field and mobile phone surveillance data and disease spread modeling from the University of Cambridge. (Graphic: University of Cambridge and Met Office)
Strong scientific partnership champions diversity to achieve common goals
The meteorological-driven wheat disease warning system is an example of effective international scientific partnership contributing to the UN Sustainable Development Goals, said Sarah Millington, a scientific manager at Atmospheric Dispersion and Air Quality Group with the Met Office.
âDiverse expertise from the Met Office, the University of Cambridge and CIMMYT shows how combined fundamental research in epidemiology and meteorology modelling with field-based disease observation can produce a system that boosts smallholder farmers’ resilience to major agricultural challenges,â she said.
The atmospheric dispersion modeling was originally developed in response to the Chernobyl disaster and since then has evolved to be able to model the dispersion and deposition of a range of particles and gases, including biological particles such as wheat rust spores.
âThe framework together with the underpinning technologies are transferable to forecast fungal disease in other regions and can be readily adapted for other wind-dispersed pests and disease of major agricultural crops,â said Christopher Gilligan, head of the Epidemiology and Modelling Group at the University of Cambridge.
Fungal wheat diseases are an increasing threat to farmer livelihoods in Asia
Wheat leaf rust can be spotted on a wheat plant of a highly susceptible variety in Nepal. The symptoms of wheat rust are dusty, reddish-orange to reddish-brown fruiting bodies that appear on the leaf surface. These lesions produce numerous spores, which are spread by wind and splashing water. (Photo: D Hodson/CIMMYT)
While there has been a history of wheat rust disease epidemics in South Asia, new emerging strains and changes to climate pose an increased threat to farmersâ livelihoods. The pathogens that cause rust diseases are continually evolving and changing over time, making them difficult to control.
Stripe rust threatens farmers in Afghanistan, India, Nepal and Pakistan, typically in two out of five seasons, with an estimated 43 million hectares of wheat vulnerable. When weather conditions are conducive and susceptible cultivars are grown, farmers can experience losses exceeding 70%.
Populations of stem rust are building at alarming rates and previously unseen scales in neighboring regions. Stem rust spores can spread across regions on the wind; this also amplifies the threat of incursion into South Asia and the ARRCC programâs target countries, underscoring the very real risk that the disease could reemerge within the subcontinent.
The devastating wheat blast disease, originating in the Americas, suddenly appeared in Bangladesh in 2016, causing wheat crop losses as high as 30% on a large area, and continues to threaten South Asiaâs vast wheat lands.
In both cases, quick international responses through CIMMYT, the CGIAR research program on Wheat (WHEAT) and the Borlaug Global Rust Initiative have been able to monitor and characterize the diseases and, especially, to develop and deploy resistant wheat varieties.
The UK aid-funded ARRCC program is led by the Met Office and the World Bank and aims to strengthen weather forecasting systems across Asia. The program is delivering new technologies and innovative approaches to help vulnerable communities use weather warnings and forecasts to better prepare for climate-related shocks.
The early warning system uses data gathered from the online Rust Tracker tool, with additional fieldwork support from the Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia (CSISA), funded by USAID and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, both coordinated by CIMMYT.
Kindie Tesfaye is a Senior Scientist based in Ethiopia. He has more than 15 years of experience in executing and managing climate, crop modeling and GIS related projects for agricultural research and development in developing countries.
During his time at CIMMYT, he has developed a system of data acquisition and quality control for climate, crop modeling and geospatial analysis. He has applied systems analysis, cropping systems modeling and geospatial analysis tools for yield gap analysis, targeting of climate smart technologies and climate change studies across different scales. In collaboration with partners, he has also developed a digital agro-climate advisory system that provides decision support to smallholder farmers.
Rural areas in Africa are facing unprecedented challenges. From high levels of rural-urban migration to the need to maintain crop production and food security under the added stress of climate change, rural areas need investment and support. The recent Africa Food Security Leadership Dialogue brought together key regional actors to discuss the current situation as well as ways to catalyze actions and financing to help address Africaâs worsening food security crisis under climate change.
Heads of state, ministers of agriculture and finance, heads of international institutions and regional economic commissions, Nobel laureates, and eminent scientists took part in the dialogue in Kigali, Rwanda, on August 5 and 6, 2019.
This high-level meeting was convened by core partners including the African Union Commission (AUC), the African Development Bank (AfDB), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), and the World Bank.
The Director General of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Martin Kropff, participated in a session entitled âLeveraging science to end hunger by 2025â, where he discussed the challenges to adapt Africaâs wheat sector to climate change, and what CIMMYT is doing to help. Demand for wheat is growing faster than any other commodity, and sub-Saharan Africa has tremendous potential to increase wheat production. People in Africa consume nearly 47 million tons of wheat a year. However, more than 80% of that â 39 million tonsâ is imported and used for human consumption, costing the countries billions of dollars. Kropff discussed the great strides CIMMYT has made in supporting wheat production on the continent despite biological challenges such as Ug99, a dangerous strain of wheat rust native to east Africa.
âThe potential for wheat production in Africa is tremendous; existing varieties already realize very high yields but poor agronomic practices often result in low yields,â Kropff said. âThe challenges we have to tackle together are as much in reshaping policies in favor of wheat and develop the wheat market and surrounding infrastructure. Africaâs environment is friendly for wheat production, but it needs the right supporting policies to develop a sustainable wheat market.â
Kropff highlighted Ethiopiaâs case. âEthiopia has decided to become self-sufficient in wheat by 2025. CIMMYT is already talking to the government and working with the national system to assure the best varieties and technologies will be used. We are ready to do this with every single African nation that is interested in producing quality wheat.â
Farmer Galana Mulatu harvests a wheat research plot in Ethiopia. (Photo: P.Lowe/CIMMYT)
Climate change is also posing dire threats to maize, a key staple crop in sub-Saharan Africa.
We talked to Cosmos Magorokosho, CIMMYT researcher and project leader of the Stress Tolerant Maize for Africa (STMA) project, who attended the dialogue, on what CIMMYT can do to better support farmers in Africaâs rural communities.
How can projects such as Stress Tolerant Maize for Africa contribute to protecting food security in Africa in the face of climate change?
Stress-tolerant maize varieties can contribute by cushioning farmers against total crop failures in case of drought and heat stress, among other stresses during the growing season. In addition, stress-tolerant varieties can also yield well under good growing conditions, therefore benefiting farmers both during difficult growing seasons as well as those seasons when conditions are favorable for maize growth.
What can be done to support rural areas and smallholder farmers in Africa to improve food security?
Rural areas and smallholder farmers need support with climate resilient crop varieties, supporting agronomic practices, environment conserving farming practices, labor and drudgery- reducing farm operations, access to affordable finance, and rewarding markets for their produce.
What role can international research organizations such as CIMMYT play in this?
International agricultural research can unlock the potential of small holder farmers through the generation of new appropriate technologies, testing and helping farmers adopt those technologies, refining and fine tuning of new technologies, as well as scaling up and out of farmer-demanded technologies. International agriculture research can influence policy across and within borders, political divide, religion, ecologies, and diversity of farmers.
What would it take for CIMMYT to effectively move science from the lab and package it into solutions that can be disseminated and adopted by majority of small family farms in Africa?
CIMMYT should keep and broaden its engagement with farmers, policy makers, and continue with capacity enhancement of partners to reach scale and bring new cutting-edge smallholder-farmer appropriate technologies to farmers’ fields in the shortest possible timeframe.
On May 15, 2019, as part of the CGIAR System Council meeting held at the ILRI campus in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, around 200 Ethiopian and international research and development stakeholders convened for the CGIAR Agriculture Research for Development Knowledge Share Fair. This exhibition offered a rare opportunity to bring the country’s major development investors together to learn and exchange about how CGIAR investments in Ethiopia help farmers and food systems be more productive, sustainable, climate resilient, nutritious, and inclusive.
Under the title One CGIAR â greater than the sum of its parts â the event offered the opportunity to highlight close partnerships between CGIAR centers, the Ethiopian government and key partners including private companies, civil society organizations and funding partners. The fair was organized around the five global challenges from CGIAR’s business plan: planetary boundaries, sustaining food availability, promoting equality of opportunity, securing public health, and creating jobs and growth. CGIAR and its partners exhibited collaborative work documenting the successes and lessons in working through an integrated approach.
There were 36 displays in total, 5 of which were presented by CIMMYT team members. Below are the five posters presented.
How can the data revolution help deliver better agronomy to African smallholder farmers?
This sustainability display showed scalable approaches and tools to generate site-specific agronomic advice, developed through the Taking Maize Agronomy to Scale in Africa (TAMASA) project in Nigeria, Tanzania and Ethiopia.
Maize and wheat: Strategic crops to fill Ethiopiaâs food basket
This poster describes how CGIAR works with Ethiopiaâs research & development sector to support national food security priorities.
Addressing gender norms in Ethiopiaâs wheat sector
Research shows that restrictive gender norms prevent womenâs ability to innovate and become productive. This significantly impacts Ethiopiaâs economy (over 1% GDP) and family welfare and food security.
Quality Protein Maize (QPM) for better nutrition in Ethiopia
With the financial support of the government of Canada, CIMMYT together with national partners tested and validated Quality Protein Maize as an alternative to protein intake among poor consumers.
Appropriate small-scale mechanization
The introduction of small-scale mechanization into the Ethiopian agriculture sector has the potential to create thousands of jobs in machinery service provision along the farming value chain.
About the CGIAR System Council
The CGIAR System Council is the strategic decision-making body of the CGIAR System that keeps under review the strategy, mission, impact and continued relevancy of the System as a whole. The Council meets face-to-face not less than twice per year and conducts business electronically between sessions. Additional meetings can be held if necessary.
Tabitha Kamau checks the maize at her familyâs farm in Machakos County, Kenya. (Photo: Joshua Masinde/CIMMYT)
How do young rural Africans engage in the rural economy? How important is farming relative to non-farm activities for the income of young rural Africans? What social, spatial and policy factors explain different patterns of engagement? These questions are at the heart of an interdisciplinary research project, funded by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), that seeks to provide stronger evidence for policy and for the growing number of programs in Africa that want to âinvest in youth.â
One component of the Challenges and Opportunities for Rural Youth Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa project, led by the Institute of Development Studies (IDS), draws on data from the World Bankâs Living Standard Measurement Study – Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) to develop a more detailed picture of young peopleâs economic activities. These surveys, covering eight countries in sub-Saharan Africa, were conducted at regular intervals and in most cases followed the same households and individuals through time. While the LSMS-ISA are not specialized youth surveys and therefore may not cover all facets of youth livelihoods and wellbeing in detail, they provide valuable knowledge about the evolving patterns of social and economic characteristics of rural African youth and their households.
âLSMS-ISA data are open access, aiming to help national governments and academics analyze the linkages between poverty and agricultural productivity in developing countries,â said Sydney Gourlay, Survey Specialist in the Development Data Group of the World Bank. She explained that LSMS-ISA datasets cover rural and urban livelihoods â including asset ownership, education, farm and non-farm incomes â and contain detailed information on farming practices and productivity. âLSMS-ISA data have untapped potential for valuable youth analyses that could lead to evidence-based youth policy reform,â Gourlay said.
To stimulate greater use of LSMS-ISA data for research on these issues, the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), IDS, and the LSMS team of the World Bank organized a workshop for young African social scientists, hosted by CIMMYT in Nairobi from February 4 to February 8, 2019.
Early-career social scientists from Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Uganda, and Zimbabwe explored the potential of LSMS-ISA data, identified research issues, and developed strategies to create new analyses. The workshop was also a chance to uncover potential areas for increased data collection on youth, as part of the LSMS teamâs IFAD-funded initiative âImproving Data on Women and Youth.â
What does that data point represent?
The workshop stressed the importance of getting to know the data before analyzing them. As explained by World Bank senior economist Talip Kilic in The Crowd and the Cloud, âEvery data point has a human story.â It is important to decipher what the data points represent and the limits within which they can be interpreted. For instance, the definition of youth differs by country, so comparative studies across countries must harmonize data from different sources.
âBecause LSMS-ISA survey locations are georeferenced, it is possible to integrate spatial information from multiple sources and gain new insights about patterns of interest, as well as the drivers associated with such patterns,â said Jordan Chamberlin, spatial economics expert at CIMMYT. âFor example, in all countries weâve examined, the degree of non-farm economic engagement is strongly associated with distance from urban centers.â
Chamberlin noted that georeferencing also has limitations. For instance, to ensure privacy, LSMS-ISA coordinates for households are randomly offset by as much as 5 km. Nonetheless, diverse geospatial data from the datasets â distance to the nearest tarmac road or population density, among other information â may be integrated via the location coordinates.
A young farmer holding a baby participates in a varietal assessment exercise on a maize trial plot in Machakos County, Kenya. (Photo: Joshua Masinde/CIMMYT)
One key variable to assess farm productivity is harvested area. The LSMS teamâs research has revealed high, systematic discrepancies between farmersâ self-assessments of area, GPS measurements, and compass and rope, which is considered the most accurate method. Methodological validation data from Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Tanzania show that on average farmers overestimate the area of plots smaller than 200 m2 by more than 370 percent and underestimate the size of plots larger than 2 hectares by 13 percent, relative to compass and rope measurements. Such errors can skew yield analyses and the accuracy of assessments of national agricultural research programsâ impact.
Several workshop participants expressed interest in using the LSMS dataset for studies on migration, given that it contains information about this variable. In the case of internal migrants â that is, persons who have moved to another area in the same country â LSMS enumerators will find and interview them and these migrants will continue to be included in future rounds of the panel survey. In Malawi, for example, about 93 percent of individuals were tracked between the 2010/11 and the 2013 Integrated Household Surveys. Plot characteristics â such as type of soil, input use, and crop production â include information on the person who manages the plot, allowing for identification and analysis of male and female managed plots.
Following the training, the participants have better articulated their research ideas on youth. Prospective youth studies from the group include how land productivity affects youth opportunities and whether migration induces greater involvement of women in agriculture or raises the cost of rural labor. Better studies will generate more accurate knowledge to help design more effective youth policies.
CIMMYT and the Pakistan Agricultural Research Council are set to hold a seminar on women and youth in wheat-based farming systems on March 8. Photo: CIMMYT archives
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (CIMMYT) â As part of activities around 2018 International Womenâs Day, the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and the Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC) will hold a seminar on women and youth in wheat-based farming systems: How do women and youth contribute? What are their problems and concerns? How can their issues be addressed to increase farm productivity and benefit all household members?
The event will draw some 70 participants from public, private, and academic organizations, including high-level wheat sector officials, social scientists from all Pakistan provinces, and scientists from CIMMYT, the global leader in publicly-funded research on maize and wheat and related farming systems.
Among other topics, speakers will share and discuss Pakistan-specific findings from GENNOVATE, a large-scale qualitative study by CGIAR during 2014-16, based on focus groups and interviews involving more than 7,500 rural men and women in 26 developing countries.
The event, which takes place in the Inspire Meeting Hall, Agricultural Economics Research Institute (AERI), NARC Premises, Park Road, Islamabad, on Thursday, 8 March from 8:45 to 11:30 a.m., will feature presentations followed by question and answer sessions and discussions and will be chaired by Ghulam Muhammad Ali, Director General, NARC, and Dr. Imtiaz Muhammad, Country Representative, CIMMYT Pakistan.
The program includes Muhammad Khair and Zarmina Achakzi from Balochistan University of Information Technology, Engineering and Management Sciences (BUITEMS), who will highlight the role of women in farming in Balochistan and factors that limit their income and social status. Sidra Majeed and Nusrat Habib of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (AERI), NARC, will present on gender roles and responsibilities in Pakistan.
From CIMMYT, Mulunesh Tsegaye, a research associate, will describe GENNOVATE findings on women and youthâs roles in wheat-based agriculture in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan provinces. Consultant Sidra Minhas will share gender-related results from 14 agricultural program evaluations in Pakistan and how better to address gender dynamics in project design, programming, monitoring, and evaluation. Kristie Drucza, gender and social development research manager, will introduce results of three quantitative surveys that highlight the need for greater participation of women in agriculture research to raise the sectorâs productivity and profitability.
The theme of 2018 International Women’s Day is #PressforProgress, and encourages global momentum in striving for gender parity.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), women make up 43 percent of the agricultural workforce in developing countries, but for many access to resources and services is severely restricted and they are often left out of decisions regarding use of incomeâeven that which they earn.
GENNOVATE is supported by generous funding from the World Bank; the CGIAR Gender & Agricultural Research Network; the government of Mexico through MasAgro; Germanyâs Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ); numerous CGIAR Research Programs; and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Â
