funder_partner: UK Met Office

Wheat pathogen surveillance system set to expand through new investment

Written by Julian Bañuelos-Uribe on October 18, 2023. Posted in Press releases.

One of the world’s largest crop pathogen surveillance systems is set to expand its analytic and knowledge systems capacity to protect wheat productivity in food vulnerable areas of East Africa and South Asia.

Researchers announced the Wheat Disease Early Warning Advisory System (Wheat DEWAS), funded through a $7.3 million grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the United Kingdom’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, to enhance crop resilience to wheat diseases.

The project is led by David Hodson, principal scientist at CIMMYT, and Maricelis Acevedo, research professor of global development and plant pathology at Cornell University’s College of Agriculture and Life Sciences. This initiative brings together research expertise from 23 research and academic organizations from sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Europe, the United States and Mexico.

Wheat DEWAS aims to be an open and scalable system capable of tracking important pathogen strains. The system builds on existing capabilities developed by the research team to provide near-real-time model-based risk forecasts and resulting in accurate, timely and actionable advice to farmers. As plant pathogens continue to evolve and threaten global food production, the system strengthens the capacity of countries to respond in a proactive manner to transboundary wheat diseases.

The system focuses on the two major fungal pathogens of wheat known as rust and blast diseases. Rust diseases, named for a rust-like appearance on infected plants, are hyper-variable and can significantly reduce crop yields when they attack. The fungus releases trillions of spores that can ride wind currents across national borders and continents and spread devastating epidemics quickly over vast areas.

Wheat blast, caused by the fungus Magnaporte oryzae Tritici, is an increasing threat to wheat production, following detection in both Bangladesh and Zambia. The fungus spreads over short distances and through the planting of infected seeds. Grains of infected plants shrivel within a week of first symptoms, providing little time for farmers to take preventative actions. Most wheat grown in the world has limited resistance to wheat blast.

“New wheat pathogen variants are constantly evolving and are spreading rapidly on a global scale,” said Hodson, principal investigator for Wheat DEWAS. “Complete crop losses in some of the most food vulnerable areas of the world are possible under favorable epidemiological conditions. Vigilance coupled with pathogen-informed breeding strategies are essential to prevent wheat disease epidemics. Improved monitoring, early warning and advisory approaches are an important component for safeguarding food supplies.”

Previous long-term investments in rust pathogen surveillance, modelling, and diagnostics built one of the largest operational global surveillance and monitoring system for any crop disease. The research permitted the development of functioning prototypes of advanced early warning advisory systems (EWAS) in East Africa and South Asia. Wheat DEWAS seeks to improve on that foundation to build a scalable, integrated, and sustainable solution that can provide improved advanced timely warning of vulnerability to emerging and migrating wheat diseases.

“The impact of these diseases is greatest on small-scale producers, negatively affecting livelihoods, income, and food security,” Acevedo said. “Ultimately, with this project we aim to maximize opportunities for smallholder farmers to benefit from hyper-local analytic and knowledge systems to protect wheat productivity.”

The system has already proven successful, contributing to prevention of a potential rust outbreak in Ethiopia in 2021. At that time, the early warning and global monitoring detected a new yellow rust strain with high epidemic potential. Risk mapping and real-time early forecasting identified the risk and allowed a timely and effective response by farmers and officials. That growing season ended up being a production record-breaker for Ethiopian wheat farmers.

While wheat is the major focus of the system, pathogens with similar biology and dispersal modes exist for all major crops. Discoveries made in the wheat system could provide essential infrastructure, methods for data collection and analysis to aid interventions that will be relevant to other crops.

Wheat Disease Early Warning Advisory System (DEWAS)

Written by Sarah McLaughlin on March 10, 2023. Posted in Uncategorized.

The Wheat Disease Early Warning Advisory System (Wheat DEWAS) project is bringing new analytic and knowledge systems capacity to one of the world’s largest and most advanced crop pathogen surveillance systems. With Wheat DEWAS, researchers are building an open and scalable system capable of preventing disease outbreaks from novel pathogen strains that threaten wheat productivity in food vulnerable areas of East Africa and South Asia.

The system builds from capabilities developed previously by multi-institutional research teams funded through long-term investments in rust pathogen surveillance, modelling, and diagnostics. Once fully operationalized, the project aims to provide near-real-time, model-based risk forecasts for governments. The result: accurate, timely and actionable advice for farmers to respond proactively to migrating wheat diseases.

The Challenge

Farmers growing wheat face pathogen pressures from a range of sources. Two of the most damaging are the fungal diseases known as rust and blast. Rust is a chronic issue for farmers in all parts of the world. A study in 2015 estimated that the three rust diseases — stem, stripe and leaf — destroyed more than 15 million tons of wheat at a cost of nearly $3 billion worldwide. Wheat blast is an increasing threat to wheat production and has been detected in both Bangladesh and Zambia. Each of these diseases can destroy entire harvests without warning, wiping out critical income and food security for resource-poor farmers in vulnerable areas.

The Response

Weather forecasts and early-warning alerts are modern technologies that people rely on for actionable information in the case of severe weather. Now imagine a system that lets farmers know in advance when dangerous conditions will threaten their crop in the field. Wheat DEWAS aims to do just that through a scalable, integrated, and sustainable global surveillance and monitoring system for wheat.

Wheat DEWAS brings together research expertise from 23 research and academic organizations from sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Europe, the United States and Mexico.

Together, the researchers are focused on six interlinked work packages:

Work package	Lead	Objectives
Data Management	Aarhus University; Global Rust Reference Center	Maintain, strengthen and expand the functionality of the existing Wheat Rust Toolbox data management system Create new modules within the Toolbox to include wheat blast and relevant wheat host information Consolidate and integrate datasets from all the participating wheat rust diagnostic labs Develop an API for the two-way exchange of data between the Toolbox and the Delphi data stack Develop an API for direct access to quality-controlled surveillance data as inputs for forecast models Ensure fair access to data
Epidemiological Models	Cambridge University	Maintain operational deployment and extend geographical range Productionalize code for long-term sustainability Multiple input sources (expert, crowd, media) Continue model validation Ensure flexibility for management scenario testing Extend framework for wheat blast
Surveillance (host + pathogen)	CIMMYT	Undertake near-real-time, standardized surveys and sampling in the target regions Expand the coverage and frequency of field surveillance Implement fully electronic field surveillance that permits near real-time data gathering Target surveillance and diagnostic sampling to validate model predictions Map vulnerability of the host landscape
Diagnostics	John Innes Centre	Strengthen existing diagnostic network in target regions & track changes & movement Develop & integrate new diagnostic methodology for wheat rusts & blast Align national diagnostic results to provide a regional & global context Enhance national capacity for wheat rust & blast diagnostics
Information Dissemination and Visualization Tools	PlantVillage; Penn State	Create a suite of information layers and visualization products that are automatically derived from the quality-controlled data management system and delivered to end users in a timely manner Deliver near real time for national partners to develop reliable and actionable advisory and alert information to extension workers, farmers and policy makers
National Partner Capacity Building	Cornell University	Strengthening National partner capacity on pathogen surveillance, diagnostics, modeling, data management, early warning assessment, and open science publishing

Wheat DEWAS partners

Academic organizations: Aarhus University / Global Rust Reference Center; Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University; Cornell University / School of Integrative Plant Science, Plant Pathology & Plant-Microbe Biology Section; Hazara University; Penn State University / PlantVillage; University of Cambridge; University of Minnesota

Research organizations: Bangladesh Wheat and Maize Research Institute (BWMRI); CIMMYT; Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), Bangladesh; Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Institute (ATI); Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR); ICARDA; John Innes Centre (JIC); Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization (KALRO); National Plant Protection Centre (NPPC), Bhutan; Nepal Agricultural Research Council (NARC); Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC); UK Met Office; Tanzania Agricultural Research Institute (TARI); The Sainsbury Laboratory (TSL) / GetGenome; U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service; Zambia Agricultural Research Institute (ZARI)

Drought-tolerant maize and use of forecasting in agriculture praised by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Written by Sarah McLaughlin on September 21, 2022. Posted in Features.

The work of maize and wheat scientists at CGIAR and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) has been featured in the latest Goalkeepers report from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, which launches with the Global Goals Awards on September 20 and an open-to-all live-streamed event on September 21.

In analysis of why the Ukraine crisis is heavily impacting Africa, the report’s introduction from Bill Gates delves into reasons behind reliance on crop imports. Most farmers in Africa are smallholders with small plots of land and have limited capacity to use fertilizers or have access to irrigation. This means that any shock to the food system, such as the disruption to the global supply chain caused by the Ukraine conflict, hugely impacts the yield levels, threatening food and nutritional security.

Conflict is not the only risk to food systems in Africa. Climate change is the most prominent challenge that the continent’s smallholder farmers continue to face.

Developed through support from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, DroughtTego, a CIMMYT-derived hybrid maize with increased resistance to hotter, drier climates, produces an average of 66% more grain per acre in Kenya. Scaled through public-private partnerships, DroughtTego seeds can increase farmer income by providing more than enough to feed a family of six for an entire year, enabling them to invest the additional money in sending their children to school or building new homes.

CIMMYT and CGIAR scientists have also been using predictive modeling to speed up plant breeding and develop new varieties that can perform well even in drought stress-prone environments of Africa. Artificial intelligence helps in processing the genomic information of crops alongside the environmental data, such as soil samples and satellite imagery. The results create a vision of what farms will need to look like in the future, enabling scientists to determine which type of crop varieties can better succeed in specific locations.

Predictive epidemiological modeling can highlight where plant diseases, such as wheat rust, may possibly spread. An early warning system, developed by a partnership between CIMMYT, the University of Cambridge, the UK Met Office, the Ethiopian Agricultural Research Institute (EIAR), the Agricultural Transformation Institute (ATI) and the Ethiopian Ministry of Agriculture, successfully alerted farmers in Ethiopia to an outbreak of the disease so that they could take preventive measures. The resulting outcome was the country’s largest wheat harvest ever recorded, instead of a devastating rust epidemic.

A LinkedIn post from Bill Gates also emphasized CIMMYT’s research, asking which crop accounts for around 30% of calorie intake for people in sub-Saharan Africa — the answer being “maize”.

Inclusion in this report highlights the global impact of CIMMYT’s work on farmers and world food systems, which is only possible through successful partnerships with organizations like the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cover photo: A farmer in Zaka District, Zimbabwe, experiences a drought that could affect crop yields. (Photo: Johnson Siamachira/CIMMYT)

The action zone and the globe at the Hydro, one of the venues in Glasgow where COP26 took place. (Photo: Karwai Tang/UK Government)

Science, technology and farmers, the three pillars of CIMMYT at COP26

Written by Bea Ciordia on November 29, 2021. Posted in Features.

From October 31 to November 12, all eyes and cameras turned to Glasgow, where the 26^th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Convention against Climate Change (COP26) took place in a hybrid format. With temperatures rising around the world and extreme weather events becoming increasingly frequent, country leaders and climate experts came together in Scotland to discuss the next steps in the fight against climate change.

Together with other CGIAR Centers, the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) took part in this crucial conversation, drawing attention to the impact of climate change on smallholder agriculture and echoing CGIAR’s call for increased funding for agricultural research and innovation.

Here’s a summary of the events in which CIMMYT researchers and scientists participated.

“Because farmers feed us all: using climate for a resilient food system”

November 6, 2021

Sponsored by the UK Met Office, this event focused on the effects of climate change on the resilience of food systems and how this impact is factored into decision-making. Speakers discussed the real-life application of climate risk information, highlighting the importance of global collaboration and multi-stakeholder partnerships in developing context-specific climate services.

Focusing on CIMMYT’s work in Ethiopia, research associate Yoseph Alemayehu and senior scientist Dave Hodson provided some insights on the wheat rust early warning system. This revolutionary mechanism developed by CIMMYT and partners helps farmers in developing countries predict this disease up to a week in advance.

“COP26 highlighted the vulnerability of different agriculture sectors to climate change, including increased threats from pests and pathogens. From the work in Ethiopia on wheat rust early warning systems, strong partnerships and the application of advanced climate science can play an important role in mitigating some of the effects.” – Dave Hodson

“Developing Climate Resilient Food Systems Pathways: Approaches From Sub-Saharan Africa”

November 8, 2021

Putting an emphasis on participatory governance and community-centered technologies, this event showcased innovative approaches to strengthen the resilience of African food systems, calling for increased investment in the scale-up of climate-smart agriculture practices to meet growing demand.

Joining from Zimbabwe, Christian Thierfelder, Principal Cropping Systems Agronomist gave an overview of CIMMYT’s work in southern Africa, explaining how the introduction of conservation agriculture back in 2004 helped farmers overcome low crop yields and boost their incomes.

“If one thing was made clear at COP26, it is the urgent need for a change in the way we do agriculture. The status quo is not an option and we, as CIMMYT and part of the One CGIAR, will continue to generate the scientific evidence and climate-smart solutions to accelerate this change and address the climate challenges ahead of us, with farmers at the core of our work.” – Christian Thierfelder

“4 per 1000” Initiative Day

November 10, 2021

The “4 per 1000” Initiative, a multi-stakeholder partnership of more than 650 members on food security and climate change, held a day-long hybrid event to explore how healthy soils can help agriculture and forestry adapt to and mitigate climate change.

At the Partner Forum, Bram Govaerts, Director General of CIMMYT, stressed the urgent need to fund soil science to achieve its carbon sequestration potential, reiterating CIMMYT’s commitment to supporting this science with results-oriented actions that scale out sustainable practices and technologies.

“For me, the main take-away of the summit is the growing consensus and understanding that we need to transform agriculture and food systems to achieve global emissions targets on time.” – Bram Govaerts

Cover photo: The action zone and the globe at the Hydro, one of the venues in Glasgow where COP26 took place. (Photo: Karwai Tang/UK Government)

Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARRCC)

Written by Emma Orchardson on April 30, 2020. Posted in Uncategorized.

The Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARRCC) program is managed by the UK Met Office, supported by the World Bank and the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID). The four-year program, which started in 2018, aims to strengthen weather forecasting systems across Asia. The program will deliver new technologies and innovative approaches to help vulnerable communities use weather warnings and forecasts to better prepare for climate-related shocks.

Since 2019, as part of ARRCC, CIMMYT has been working with the Met Office and Cambridge University to pilot an early warning system to deliver wheat rust and blast disease predictions directly to farmers’ phones in Bangladesh and Nepal.

The system was first developed in Ethiopia. It uses weather information from the Met Office, the UK’s national meteorological service, along with field and mobile phone surveillance data and disease spread modeling from the University of Cambridge, to construct and deploy a near real-time early warning system.

Phase I: 12-Month Pilot Phase

Around 50,000 smallholder farmers are expected to receive improved disease warnings and appropriate management advisories in the first 12 months as part of a proof-of-concept modeling and pilot advisory extension phase focused on three critical diseases:

Wheat stripe rust in Nepal: extend and test the modelling framework developed in Ethiopia to smallholder farmers in Nepal as proof-of concept;
Wheat stem rust in Bangladesh and Nepal: while stem rust is currently not widely established in South Asia, models indicate that devastating incursion from neighboring regions is likely. This work will prepare for potential incursions of new rust strains in both countries;
Wheat blast in Bangladesh: this disease is now established in Bangladesh. This work will establish the feasibility of adapting the dispersal modelling framework to improve wheat blast predictability and deploy timely preventative management advisories to farmers.

Phase II: Scaling-out wheat rust early warning advisories, introducing wheat blast forecasting and refinement model refinement

Subject to funding approval the second year of the project will lead to validation of the wheat rust early warnings, in which researchers compare predictions with on-the-ground survey results, increasingly supplemented with farmer response on the usefulness of the warnings facilitated by national research and extension partners. Researchers shall continue to introduce and scale-out improved early warning systems for wheat blast. Concomitantly, increasing the reach of the advice to progressively larger numbers of farmers while refining the models in the light of results. We anticipate that with sufficient funding, Phase II activities could reach up to 300,000 more farmers in Nepal and Bangladesh.

Phase III: Demonstrating that climate services can increase farmers’ resilience to crop diseases

As experience is gained and more data is accumulated from validation and scaling-out, researchers will refine and improve the precision of model predictions. They will also place emphasis on efforts to train partners and operationalize efficient communication and advisory dissemination channels using information communication technologies (ICTs) for extension agents and smallholders. Experience from Ethiopia indicates that these activities are essential in achieving ongoing sustainability of early warning systems at scale. Where sufficient investment can be garnered to support the third phase of activities, it is expected that an additional 350,000 farmers will receive disease management warnings and advisories in Nepal and Bangladesh, totaling 1 million farmers over a three-year period.

Objectives

Review the feasibility of building resilience to wheat rust through meteorologically informed early warning systems.
Adapt and implement epidemiological forecasting protocols for wheat blast in South Asia.
Implement processes to institutionalize disease early warning systems in Nepal and Bangladesh.

Blast and rust forecast

Written by Matthew O'Leary on April 20, 2020. Posted in Features. 1 Comment on Blast and rust forecast

An early warning system set to deliver wheat disease predictions directly to farmers’ phones is being piloted in Bangladesh and Nepal by interdisciplinary researchers.

Experts in crop disease, meteorology and computer science are crunching data from multiple countries to formulate models that anticipate the spread of the wheat rust and blast diseases in order to warn farmers of likely outbreaks, providing time for pre-emptive measures, said Dave Hodson, a principal scientist with the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) coordinating the pilot project.

Around 50,000 smallholder farmers are expected to receive improved disease warnings and appropriate management advisories through the one-year proof-of-concept project, as part of the UK Aid-funded Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARRCC) program.

Early action is critical to prevent crop diseases becoming endemic. The speed at which wind-dispersed fungal wheat diseases are spreading through Asia poses a constant threat to sustainable wheat production of the 130 million tons produced in the region each year.

“Wheat rust and blast are caused by fungal pathogens, and like many fungi, they spread from plant to plant — and field to field — in tiny particles called spores,” said Hodson. “Disease strain mutations can overcome resistant varieties, leaving farmers few choices but to rely on expensive and environmentally-damaging fungicides to prevent crop loss.”

“The early warning system combines climate data and epidemiology models to predict how spores will spread through the air and identifies environmental conditions where healthy crops are at risk of infection. This allows for more targeted and optimal use of fungicides.”

CIMMYT consultant Madan Bhatta conducts field surveys using Open Data Kit (ODK) in the mid-hills of Nepal. (Photo: D. Hodson/CIMMYT)

Initial efforts focused on adapting the wheat stripe and stem rust model from Ethiopia to Bangladesh and Nepal have been successful, with field surveillance data appearing to align with the weather-driven disease early warnings, but further analysis is ongoing, said Hodson.

“In the current wheat season we are in the process of comparing our disease forecasting models with on-the-ground survey results in both countries,” the wheat expert said.

“Next season, after getting validation from national partners, we will pilot getting our predictions to farmers through text-based messaging systems.”

CIMMYT’s strong partnerships with governmental extension systems and farmer associations across South Asia are being utilized to develop efficient pathways to get disease predictions to farmers, said Tim Krupnik, a CIMMYT Senior Scientist based in Bangladesh.

“Partnerships are essential. Working with our colleagues, we can validate and test the deployment of model-derived advisories in real-world extension settings,” Krupnik said. “The forecasting and early warning systems are designed to reduce unnecessary fungicide use, advising it only in the case where outbreaks are expected.”

Local partners are also key for data collection to support and develop future epidemiological modelling, the development of advisory graphics and the dissemination of information, he explained.

The second stage of the project concerns the adaptation of the framework and protocols for wheat blast disease to improve existing wheat blast early warning systems already pioneered in Bangladesh.

Example of weekly stripe rust spore deposition forecast in Nepal. Darker colors represent higher predicted number of spores deposited. The early warning system combines weather information from the Met Office with field and mobile phone surveillance data and disease spread modeling from the University of Cambridge. (Graphic: University of Cambridge and Met Office)

Strong scientific partnership champions diversity to achieve common goals

The meteorological-driven wheat disease warning system is an example of effective international scientific partnership contributing to the UN Sustainable Development Goals, said Sarah Millington, a scientific manager at Atmospheric Dispersion and Air Quality Group with the Met Office.

“Diverse expertise from the Met Office, the University of Cambridge and CIMMYT shows how combined fundamental research in epidemiology and meteorology modelling with field-based disease observation can produce a system that boosts smallholder farmers’ resilience to major agricultural challenges,” she said.

The atmospheric dispersion modeling was originally developed in response to the Chernobyl disaster and since then has evolved to be able to model the dispersion and deposition of a range of particles and gases, including biological particles such as wheat rust spores.

“The framework together with the underpinning technologies are transferable to forecast fungal disease in other regions and can be readily adapted for other wind-dispersed pests and disease of major agricultural crops,” said Christopher Gilligan, head of the Epidemiology and Modelling Group at the University of Cambridge.

Fungal wheat diseases are an increasing threat to farmer livelihoods in Asia

Wheat leaf rust can be spotted on a wheat plant of a highly susceptible variety in Nepal. The symptoms of wheat rust are dusty, reddish-orange to reddish-brown fruiting bodies that appear on the leaf surface. These lesions produce numerous spores, which are spread by wind and splashing water. (Photo: D Hodson/CIMMYT)

While there has been a history of wheat rust disease epidemics in South Asia, new emerging strains and changes to climate pose an increased threat to farmers’ livelihoods. The pathogens that cause rust diseases are continually evolving and changing over time, making them difficult to control.

Stripe rust threatens farmers in Afghanistan, India, Nepal and Pakistan, typically in two out of five seasons, with an estimated 43 million hectares of wheat vulnerable. When weather conditions are conducive and susceptible cultivars are grown, farmers can experience losses exceeding 70%.

Populations of stem rust are building at alarming rates and previously unseen scales in neighboring regions. Stem rust spores can spread across regions on the wind; this also amplifies the threat of incursion into South Asia and the ARRCC program’s target countries, underscoring the very real risk that the disease could reemerge within the subcontinent.

The devastating wheat blast disease, originating in the Americas, suddenly appeared in Bangladesh in 2016, causing wheat crop losses as high as 30% on a large area, and continues to threaten South Asia’s vast wheat lands.

In both cases, quick international responses through CIMMYT, the CGIAR research program on Wheat (WHEAT) and the Borlaug Global Rust Initiative have been able to monitor and characterize the diseases and, especially, to develop and deploy resistant wheat varieties.

The UK aid-funded ARRCC program is led by the Met Office and the World Bank and aims to strengthen weather forecasting systems across Asia. The program is delivering new technologies and innovative approaches to help vulnerable communities use weather warnings and forecasts to better prepare for climate-related shocks.

The early warning system uses data gathered from the online Rust Tracker tool, with additional fieldwork support from the Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia (CSISA), funded by USAID and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, both coordinated by CIMMYT.

Ethiopia, great mobilization against wheat rust

Written by Mary Donovan on November 28, 2019. Posted in In the media.

To protect crops, a rapid alert system has been developed which is able to predict the spread of wheat rust and warns policy makers and farmers allowing timely and targeted interventions.

The project involved a multidisciplinary team – biologists, meteorologists, agronomists, IT and telecommunications experts – and the system was developed by the University of Cambridge, the Met Office of Great Britain, the Ethiopian Agricultural Research Institute (EIAR), the Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Agency (ATA) and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT).

At the base of it all is the data. Read more here.

Scientists develop an early warning system that delivers wheat rust predictions directly to farmers’ phones

Written by Rodrigo Ordóñez on November 4, 2019. Posted in Press releases.

One of the researchers behind the study, Yoseph Alemayehu, carries out a field survey in Ethiopia by mobile phone. (Photo Dave Hodson/CIMMYT)

TEXCOCO, Mexico — Using field and mobile phone surveillance data together with forecasts for spore dispersal and environmental suitability for disease, an international team of scientists has developed an early warning system which can predict wheat rust diseases in Ethiopia. The cross-disciplinary project draws on expertise from biology, meteorology, agronomy, computer science and telecommunications.

Reported this week in Environmental Research Letters, the new early warning system, the first of its kind to be implemented in a developing country, will allow policy makers and farmers all over Ethiopia to gauge the current situation and forecast wheat rust up to a week in advance.

The system was developed by the University of Cambridge, the UK Met Office, the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR), the Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Agency (ATA) and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT). It works by taking near real-time information from wheat rust surveys carried out by EIAR, regional research centers and CIMMYT using a smartphone app called Open Data Kit (ODK).

This is complemented by crowd-sourced information from the ATA-managed Farmers’ Hotline. The University of Cambridge and the UK Met Office then provide automated 7-day advance forecast models for wheat rust spore dispersal and environmental suitability based on disease presence.

All of this information is fed into an early warning unit that receives updates automatically on a daily basis. An advisory report is sent out every week to development agents and national authorities. The information also gets passed on to researchers and farmers.

Example of weekly stripe rust spore deposition based on dispersal forecasts. Darker colors represent higher predicted number of spores deposited. (Graphic: University of Cambridge/UK Met Office)

Timely alerts

“If there’s a high risk of wheat rust developing, farmers will get a targeted SMS text alert from the Farmers’ Hotline. This gives the farmer about three weeks to take action,” explained Dave Hodson, principal scientist with CIMMYT and co-author of the research study. The Farmers’ Hotline now has over four million registered farmers and extension agents, enabling rapid information dissemination throughout Ethiopia.

Ethiopia is the largest wheat producer in sub-Saharan Africa but the country still spends in excess of $600 million annually on wheat imports. More can be grown at home and the Ethiopian government has targeted to achieve wheat self-sufficiency by 2023.

“Rust diseases are a grave threat to wheat production in Ethiopia. The timely information from this new system will help us protect farmers’ yields, and reach our goal of wheat self-sufficiency,” said EIAR Director Mandefro Nigussie.

Wheat rusts are fungal diseases that can be dispersed by wind over long distances, quickly causing devastating epidemics which can dramatically reduce wheat yields. Just one outbreak in 2010 affected 30% of Ethiopia’s wheat growing area and reduced production by 15-20%.

The pathogens that cause rust diseases are continually evolving and changing over time, making them difficult to control. “New strains of wheat rust are appearing all the time — a bit like the flu virus,” explained Hodson.

In the absence of resistant varieties, one solution to wheat rust is to apply fungicide, but the Ethiopian government has limited supplies. The early warning system will help to prioritize areas at highest risk of the disease, so that the allocation of fungicides can be optimized.

Example of weekly stripe rust environmental suitability forecast. Yellow to Brown show the areas predicted to be most suitable for stripe rust infection. (Graphic: University of Cambridge/UK Met Office)

The cream of the crop

The early warning system puts Ethiopia at the forefront of early warning systems for wheat rust. “Nowhere else in the world really has this type of system. It’s fantastic that Ethiopia is leading the way on this,” said Hodson. “It’s world-class science from the UK being applied to real-world problems.”

“This is an ideal example of how it is possible to integrate fundamental research in modelling from epidemiology and meteorology with field-based observation of disease to produce an early warning system for a major crop,” said Christopher Gilligan, head of the Epidemiology and Modelling Group at the University of Cambridge and a co-author of the paper, adding that the approach could be adopted in other countries and for other crops.

“The development of the early warning system was successful because of the great collaborative spirit between all the project partners,” said article co-author Clare Sader-Allen, currently a regional climate modeller at the British Antarctic Survey.

“Clear communication was vital for bringing together the expertise from a diversity of subjects to deliver a common goal: to produce a wheat rust forecast relevant for both policy makers and farmers alike.”

RELATED PUBLICATIONS:

An early warning system to predict and mitigate wheat rust diseases in Ethiopia
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4034

INTERVIEW OPPORTUNITIES:

Dave Hodson, Senior Scientist, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT)

FOR MORE INFORMATION, OR TO ARRANGE INTERVIEWS, CONTACT:

Marcia MacNeil, Communications Officer, CIMMYT. m.macneil@cgiar.org, +52 (55) 5804 2004 ext. 2070.

Rodrigo Ordóñez, Communications Manager, CIMMYT. r.ordonez@cgiar.org, +52 (55) 5804 2004 ext. 1167.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS:

This study was made possible through the support provided by the BBSRC GCRF Foundation Awards for Global Agriculture and Food Systems Research, which brings top class UK science to developing countries, the Delivering Genetic Gains in Wheat (DGGW) Project managed by Cornell University and funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the UK Department for International Development (DFID). The Government of Ethiopia also provided direct support into the early warning system. This research is supported by CGIAR Fund Donors.

ABOUT CIMMYT:

The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) is the global leader in publicly-funded maize and wheat research and related farming systems. Headquartered near Mexico City, CIMMYT works with hundreds of partners throughout the developing world to sustainably increase the productivity of maize and wheat cropping systems, thus improving global food security and reducing poverty. CIMMYT is a member of the CGIAR System and leads the CGIAR Research Programs on Maize and Wheat and the Excellence in Breeding Platform. The Center receives support from national governments, foundations, development banks and other public and private agencies. For more information, visit staging.cimmyt.org.

ABOUT THE ETHIOPIAN INSTITUTE OF AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH (EIAR):

The Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR) is one of the oldest and largest agricultural research institutes in Africa, with roots in the Ethiopian Agricultural Research System (EARS), founded in the late 1940s. EIAR’s objectives are: (1) to generate, develop and adapt agricultural technologies that focus on the needs of the overall agricultural development and its beneficiaries; (2) to coordinate technically the research activities of Ethiopian Agricultural Research System; (3) build up a research capacity and establish a system that will make agricultural research efficient, effective and based on development needs; and (4) popularize agricultural research results. EIAR’s vision is to see improved livelihood of all Ethiopians engaged in agriculture, agro-pastoralism and pastoralism through market competitive agricultural technologies.

Climate Services for Resilient Development in South Asia (CSRD)

Written by Rodrigo Ordóñez on August 13, 2019. Posted in Uncategorized.

Climate Services for Resilient Development (CSRD) is a global partnership that connects climate and environmental science with data streams to generate decision support tools and training for decision-makers in developing countries. Translating complex climate information into easy to understand actionable formats to spread awareness in the form of climate services is core to CSRD’s mission. CSRD works across South Asia (with emphasis on Bangladesh), the Horn of Africa (Ethiopia), and in South America (Colombia) to generate and provide timely and useful climate information, decision tools and services. In South Asia, CSRD focusses the development, supply and adaptation of agricultural climate services to reduce vulnerability by increasing resiliency in smallholder farming systems. These goals are strategically aligned with the Global Framework for Climate Services.

Project description

CSRD in South Asia aims to have the impact by increasing climate resilient farm management, indicated by increased use of climate services and climate information to inform farmers on how to better manage their production systems. CSRD also aims to develop and validate models for agricultural climate services that can be replicated in other regions with similar farming systems and climate risks, while also fine-tuning weather and climate advisories to be most useful to farmers’ decision-making. A series of sustained contributions to CSRD’s Action and Learning Framework Pillars 1-4, detailed below, are envisioned as major project outcomes:

Pillar 1: Create the solution space:
CSRD works to establish a problem-focus, to engage key stakeholders, to create a platform for sustained communication and collaboration, and to build synergies among relevant programs.
Pillar 2: Utilize quality data, products, and tools
CSRD provides access to useful and available information and technology, and to develop tailored products and services responsive to problem-specific needs.
Pillar 3: Build capacities and platforms
CSRD supports the use of targeted products and services, and to promote sustainability, scalability, and replicability.
Pillar 4: Build knowledge
A key goal of CSRD’s work is to identify and promote good practices among the global climate services community and to support research efforts and innovation that increase the effectiveness of climate services.

Outputs

CSRD in South Asia will ultimately generate the following broad outputs and services:

A strengthened enabling environment for the generation, uptake, and use of weather and climate services to support resilient agricultural development.
National and sub-national strategies for climate services in Bangladesh supported by more effective, user-focused decision support and communications strengthened systems.
Improved data and infrastructure and communications capacity to support long-term improvements to the generation of agricultural climate services.
Improved knowledge, products and services strengthened by global collaboration and interdisciplinary research.

Download the report summarizing CSRD activities, achievements, and challenges during the first year (from November 2016 through December 2017).

The CSRD consortium in South Asia is led by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) in partnership with the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), Bangladesh Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council (BARC), Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI), International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), International Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), University de Passo Fundo (UPF), and the University of Rhode Island (URI). This consortium provides strength and technical expertise to develop relevant climate products that can assist farmers and other stakeholders with relevant information to improve decision making, with the ultimate goal of increasing resilience to climate-related risks. The CSRD consortium also works to assure that climate information can be conveyed in ways that are decision-relevant to farmers and other agricultural stakeholders.

As a public-private partnership, CSRD is supported by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), UK AID, the UK Met Office, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), ESRI, Google, the American Red Cross, and the Skoll Global Threats Fund.

Timothy J. Krupnik

Written by on April 17, 2018. Posted in Uncategorized.

Timothy Krupnik has worked in agricultural research for development in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Caribbean. At CIMMYT, he leads a multi-disciplinary and multi-cultural research team that comprises the Sustainable Agrifood Systems program’s Innovation Sciences in Agroecosystems and Food Systems theme across Asia.

This team spans disciplines and brings together technical skills ranging from systems agronomy, remote sensing, socioeconomics, climatology, agricultural engineering, and modeling and data science. The team’s research generates real-world impact by addressing key knowledge gaps, developing tools, and facilitating partnerships that increase productivity, sustainability and resilience in the context of the region’s biophysical, economic, and sociocultural diversity.

Krupnik has published over 120 peer-reviewed papers, policy briefs, chapters and books, and has led the development of numerous extension modules, decision support tools, and early warning systems.

New initiative strengthens agricultural drought monitoring in Bangladesh

Written by on September 7, 2017. Posted in News.

A new joint effort will strengthen or establish drought monitoring and early warning systems in Bangladesh. Photo: Santosh Raj Pathak/ICIMOD.

DHAKA, Bangladesh (CIMMYT) – A new joint effort will strengthen or establish drought monitoring and early warning systems in Bangladesh, as well as provide information on local cropping systems in South Asia to boost farmer resilience to climate change.

Regionally specific winter season drought and dry spells during the monsoon are a reoccurring concern in Bangladesh. Drought leads to reduced farming productivity, and climate change predictions suggest further decreases in precipitation in coming years. Additionally, there are uncertainties about where monsoons will flood in the rainy season, limiting groundwater recharge. If farmers are unable to adapt to these changes, bottlenecks in crop productivity and increased food insecurity are likely to result.

The effort will be led by Climate Services for Resilient Development (CSRD) and SERVIR-Hindu Kush Himalaya – a project funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) – using Earth observation data.

A workshop jointly hosted by a number of organizations was recently held at the Bangladesh Agriculture Research Council (BARC) campus in Dhaka, Bangladesh to discuss the development of these agricultural monitoring services. The workshop brought together key partners to discuss anticipated methods, work plans and the user engagement process for effective development and long-term sustainability of the agricultural drought monitoring service.

Under this partnership, BARC is working to strengthen capacity of national research and agricultural extension institutes to use geographic information systems and remote sensing approaches for drought risk management.

(L-R) Birendra Bajracharya, regional program manager at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Shams Uddin Ahmed, director of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department, Muhammad Jalal Uddin, executive chairman the Bangladesh Agriculture Research Council and Timothy J. Krupnik, CIMMYT systems agronomist. Photo: Santosh Raj Pathak/ICIMOD

Shams Uddin Ahmed, director of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department, noted that groundwater accessibility is a growing concern due to continued drought. The government has posed restrictions on deep well extraction, except for drinking water, to conserve crucial groundwater resources. He added that access to good quality drought monitoring and early warning information could help develop climate services to help farmers adapt to these challenges.

Muhammad Jalal Uddin, executive chairman of BARC, emphasized the need to adopt new technologies including remote sensing applications to improve predictability of climate hazards like floods and droughts. He added that with the adoption of improved agricultural practices, Bangladesh has become self-sufficient in rice, but that further work is needed to attain overall nutrition sufficiency.

Promoting and enabling climate services that increase farmer resilience to the impacts of climate variability can positively change behaviors and affect policy in developing countries. To do this, collaborators are working together to establish information communication technology platforms to provide user-oriented, easily accessible, timely and decision-relevant scientific information in the form of climate services.

Birendra Bajracharya, regional program manager of the Mountain Environment Regional Information System program at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), highlighted opportunities of using Earth observation data products for addressing societal challenges. He emphasized the user-centric “services” used by ICIMOD increase the sustainable use of Earth observation information and geospatial technologies for environmental management and improve resilience to climate change in the region.

Read the full workshop summary from ICIMOD here.

CSRD is a a public-private partnership supported by USAID, Department for International Development (DFID), the Met Office, Asian Development Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank, ESRI, Google, the American Red Cross and the Skoll Global Threats Fund.