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funder_partner: Penn State University

Scientists convene in Kenya for intensive wheat disease training

An international cohort of scientists representing 12 countries gathered at the Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization (KALRO) station in Njoro for a comprehensive training course aimed at honing their expertise in wheat rust pathology.

The two-week program “Enhancing Wheat Disease Early Warning Systems, Germplasm Evaluation, Selection, and Tools for Improving Wheat Breeding Pipelines,” was a collaborative effort between CIMMYT and Cornell University and supported by the Wheat Disease Early Warning Advisory System (DEWAS) and Accelerating Genetic Gains in Maize and Wheat projects.

With a mission to bolster the capabilities of National Agricultural Research Systems (NARS), the training course attracted more than 30 participants from diverse corners of the globe.

Maricelis Acevedo, a research professor of global development at Cornell and the associate director of Wheat DEWAS, underscored the initiative’s significance. “This is all about training a new generation of scientists to be at the forefront of efforts to prevent wheat pathogens epidemics and increase food security all over the globe,” Acevedo said.

First initiated in 2008 through the Borlaug Global Rust Initiative, these training programs in Kenya have played a vital role in equipping scientists worldwide with the most up-to-date knowledge on rust pathogens. The initial twelve training sessions received support from the BGRI under the auspices of the Durable Rust Resistance in Wheat and Delivering Genetic Gain in Wheat projects.

This year’s training aims to prepare global scientists to protect against disease outbreaks that threaten wheat productivity in East Africa and South Asia. The course encompassed a wide array of practical exercises and theoretical sessions designed to enhance the participants’ knowledge in pathogen surveillance, diagnostics, modeling, data management, early warning assessments, and open science publishing. Presentations were made by DEWAS partners from the John Innes Centre, Aarhus University, the University of Cambridge and University of Minnesota.

(Photo: Borlaug Global Rust Initiative)

The course provided practical, hands-on experience in selecting and evaluating wheat breeding germplasm, race analysis and greenhouse screening experiments to enhance knowledge of rust diseases, according to Sridhar Bhavani, training coordinator for the course.

“This comprehensive training program encompasses diverse aspects of wheat research, including disease monitoring, data management, epidemiological models, and rapid diagnostics to establish a scalable and sustainable early warning system for critical wheat diseases such as rusts, fusarium, and wheat blast,” said Bhavani, wheat improvement lead for East Africa at CIMMYT and head of wheat rust pathology and molecular genetic in CIMMYT’s Global Wheat program.

An integral part of the program, Acevedo said, was the hands-on training on wheat pathogen survey and sample collection at KALRO.  The scientists utilized the international wheat screening facility at KALRO as a training ground for hot-spot screening for rust diseases resistance.

Daisy Kwamboka, an associate researcher at PlantVillage in Kenya, said the program provided younger scientists with essential knowledge and mentoring.

“I found the practical sessions particularly fascinating, and I can now confidently perform inoculations and rust scoring on my own,” said Kwamboka said, who added that she also learned how to organize experimental designs and the basics of R language for data analysis.

DEWAS research leaders Dave Hodson, Bhavani and Acevedo conducted workshops and presentations along with leading wheat rust experts. Presenters included Robert Park and Davinder Singh from the University of Sydney; Diane Sauders from the John Innes Centre; Clay Sneller from Ohio State University; Pablo Olivera from the University of Minnesota; Cyrus Kimani, Zennah Kosgey and Godwin Macharia from KALRO; Leo Crespo, Susanne Dreisigacker, Keith Gardner, Velu Govindan, Itria Ibba, Arun Joshi, Naeela Qureshi, Pawan Kumar Singh and Paolo Vitale from CIMMYT; Chris Gilligan and Jake Smith from the University of Cambridge; and Jens GrÞnbech Hansen and Mogens S. HovmÞller from the Global Rust Reference Center at Aarhus University.

“I thoroughly enjoyed the knowledge imparted by the invited experts, along with the incredible care they have shown us throughout this wonderful training.”

Narain Dhar, Borlaug Institute for South Asia 

For participants, the course offered a crucial platform for international collaboration, a strong commitment to knowledge sharing, and its significant contribution to global food security.

“The dedication of the trainers truly brought the training to life, making it incredibly understandable,” said Narain Dhar, research fellow at the Borlaug Institute for South Asia.

The event not only facilitated learning but also fostered connections among scientists from different parts of the world. These newfound connections hold the promise of sparking innovative collaborations and research endeavors that could further advance the field of wheat pathology.

Wheat pathogen surveillance system set to expand through new investment

One of the world’s largest crop pathogen surveillance systems is set to expand its analytic and knowledge systems capacity to protect wheat productivity in food vulnerable areas of East Africa and South Asia.

Researchers announced the Wheat Disease Early Warning Advisory System (Wheat DEWAS), funded through a $7.3 million grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the United Kingdom’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, to enhance crop resilience to wheat diseases.

The project is led by David Hodson, principal scientist at CIMMYT, and Maricelis Acevedo, research professor of global development and plant pathology at Cornell University’s College of Agriculture and Life Sciences. This initiative brings together research expertise from 23 research and academic organizations from sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Europe, the United States and Mexico.

Wheat DEWAS aims to be an open and scalable system capable of tracking important pathogen strains. The system builds on existing capabilities developed by the research team to provide near-real-time model-based risk forecasts and resulting in accurate, timely and actionable advice to farmers. As plant pathogens continue to evolve and threaten global food production, the system strengthens the capacity of countries to respond in a proactive manner to transboundary wheat diseases.

The system focuses on the two major fungal pathogens of wheat known as rust and blast diseases. Rust diseases, named for a rust-like appearance on infected plants, are hyper-variable and can significantly reduce crop yields when they attack. The fungus releases trillions of spores that can ride wind currents across national borders and continents and spread devastating epidemics quickly over vast areas.

Wheat blast, caused by the fungus Magnaporte oryzae Tritici, is an increasing threat to wheat production, following detection in both Bangladesh and Zambia. The fungus spreads over short distances and through the planting of infected seeds. Grains of infected plants shrivel within a week of first symptoms, providing little time for farmers to take preventative actions. Most wheat grown in the world has limited resistance to wheat blast.

“New wheat pathogen variants are constantly evolving and are spreading rapidly on a global scale,” said Hodson, principal investigator for Wheat DEWAS. “Complete crop losses in some of the most food vulnerable areas of the world are possible under favorable epidemiological conditions. Vigilance coupled with pathogen-informed breeding strategies are essential to prevent wheat disease epidemics. Improved monitoring, early warning and advisory approaches are an important component for safeguarding food supplies.”

Previous long-term investments in rust pathogen surveillance, modelling, and diagnostics built one of the largest operational global surveillance and monitoring system for any crop disease. The research permitted the development of functioning prototypes of advanced early warning advisory systems (EWAS) in East Africa and South Asia. Wheat DEWAS seeks to improve on that foundation to build a scalable, integrated, and sustainable solution that can provide improved advanced timely warning of vulnerability to emerging and migrating wheat diseases.

“The impact of these diseases is greatest on small-scale producers, negatively affecting livelihoods, income, and food security,” Acevedo said. “Ultimately, with this project we aim to maximize opportunities for smallholder farmers to benefit from hyper-local analytic and knowledge systems to protect wheat productivity.”

The system has already proven successful, contributing to prevention of a potential rust outbreak in Ethiopia in 2021. At that time, the early warning and global monitoring detected a new yellow rust strain with high epidemic potential. Risk mapping and real-time early forecasting identified the risk and allowed a timely and effective response by farmers and officials. That growing season ended up being a production record-breaker for Ethiopian wheat farmers.

While wheat is the major focus of the system, pathogens with similar biology and dispersal modes exist for all major crops. Discoveries made in the wheat system could provide essential infrastructure, methods for data collection and analysis to aid interventions that will be relevant to other crops.

Wheat Disease Early Warning Advisory System (DEWAS)

The Wheat Disease Early Warning Advisory System (Wheat DEWAS) project is bringing new analytic and knowledge systems capacity to one of the world’s largest and most advanced crop pathogen surveillance systems. With Wheat DEWAS, researchers are building an open and scalable system capable of preventing disease outbreaks from novel pathogen strains that threaten wheat productivity in food vulnerable areas of East Africa and South Asia.

The system builds from capabilities developed previously by multi-institutional research teams funded through long-term investments in rust pathogen surveillance, modelling, and diagnostics. Once fully operationalized, the project aims to provide near-real-time, model-based risk forecasts for governments. The result: accurate, timely and actionable advice for farmers to respond proactively to migrating wheat diseases.

The Challenge

Farmers growing wheat face pathogen pressures from a range of sources. Two of the most damaging are the fungal diseases known as rust and blast. Rust is a chronic issue for farmers in all parts of the world. A study in 2015 estimated that the three rust diseases — stem, stripe and leaf — destroyed more than 15 million tons of wheat at a cost of nearly $3 billion worldwide. Wheat blast is an increasing threat to wheat production and has been detected in both Bangladesh and Zambia. Each of these diseases can destroy entire harvests without warning, wiping out critical income and food security for resource-poor farmers in vulnerable areas.

The Response

Weather forecasts and early-warning alerts are modern technologies that people rely on for actionable information in the case of severe weather. Now imagine a system that lets farmers know in advance when dangerous conditions will threaten their crop in the field. Wheat DEWAS aims to do just that through a scalable, integrated, and sustainable global surveillance and monitoring system for wheat.

Wheat DEWAS brings together research expertise from 23 research and academic organizations from sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Europe, the United States and Mexico.

Together, the researchers are focused on six interlinked work packages: 

Work package Lead Objectives
Data Management Aarhus University; Global Rust Reference Center
  • Maintain, strengthen and expand the functionality of the existing Wheat Rust Toolbox data management system
  • Create new modules within the Toolbox to include wheat blast and relevant wheat host information
  • Consolidate and integrate datasets from all the participating wheat rust diagnostic labs
  • Develop an API for the two-way exchange of data between the Toolbox and the Delphi data stack
  • Develop an API for direct access to quality-controlled surveillance data as inputs for forecast models
  • Ensure fair access to data
Epidemiological Models Cambridge University
  • Maintain operational deployment and extend geographical range
  • Productionalize code for long-term sustainability
  • Multiple input sources (expert, crowd, media)
  • Continue model validation
  • Ensure flexibility for management scenario testing
  • Extend framework for wheat blast
Surveillance (host + pathogen) CIMMYT
  • Undertake near-real-time, standardized surveys and sampling in the target regions
  • Expand the coverage and frequency of field surveillance
  • Implement fully electronic field surveillance that permits near real-time data gathering
  • Target surveillance and diagnostic sampling to validate model predictions
  • Map vulnerability of the host landscape
Diagnostics John Innes Centre
  • Strengthen existing diagnostic network in target regions & track changes & movement
  • Develop & integrate new diagnostic methodology for wheat rusts & blast
  • Align national diagnostic results to provide a regional & global context
  • Enhance national capacity for wheat rust & blast diagnostics
Information Dissemination and Visualization Tools PlantVillage; Penn State
  • Create a suite of information layers and visualization products that are automatically derived from the quality-controlled data management system and delivered to end users in a timely manner
  • Deliver near real time for national partners to develop reliable and actionable advisory and alert information to extension workers, farmers and policy makers
National Partner Capacity Building Cornell University
  • Strengthening National partner capacity on pathogen surveillance, diagnostics, modeling, data management, early warning assessment, and open science publishing

 

Wheat DEWAS partners 

Academic organizations: Aarhus University / Global Rust Reference Center; Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University; Cornell University / School of Integrative Plant Science, Plant Pathology & Plant-Microbe Biology Section; Hazara University; Penn State University / PlantVillage; University of Cambridge; University of Minnesota

 Research organizations: Bangladesh Wheat and Maize Research Institute (BWMRI); CIMMYT; Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), Bangladesh; Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Institute (ATI); Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR); ICARDA; John Innes Centre (JIC); Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization (KALRO); National Plant Protection Centre (NPPC), Bhutan; Nepal Agricultural Research Council (NARC); Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC); UK Met Office; Tanzania Agricultural Research Institute (TARI); The Sainsbury Laboratory (TSL) / GetGenome; U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service; Zambia Agricultural Research Institute (ZARI)

Essential actions to mitigate the food crisis, stabilize supply and transition to greater agrifood system resilience

Wheat at a CIMMYT field trial. (Photo: H. Hernandez Lira/CIMMYT)
Wheat at a CIMMYT field trial. (Photo: H. Hernandez Lira/CIMMYT)

As the Russia-Ukraine war continues to degrade global food security, a new analysis lays out concrete actions that governments and investors must do now to mitigate near-term food security risks and stabilize wheat supplies, while transitioning toward long-term resilience.

The guidance, published in Nature Food by scientists from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and partners, lays out short-, medium- and long-term steps to respond to the global food crisis and ultimately lead to a more resilient global agrifood system.

“The Russia-Ukraine war will impact global food security over months — if not years,” said CIMMYT Global Wheat Program Director and lead author Alison Bentley. “We now need to move beyond defining the problem to implementing practical actions to ensure stable supply, safeguard the livelihoods of millions of vulnerable people and bring resilience to our global agrifood system.”

The war in Ukraine and trade sanctions against Russia are triggering a level of volatility that could easily overwhelm existing mitigation mechanisms. More than 2.5 billion people worldwide consume wheat-based foods; those in lower- to middle-income countries dependent on imports from Russia and Ukraine are particularly affected. Some of the world’s poorest countries, such as Bangladesh, Sudan and Yemen, rely heavily on Russian and Ukrainian wheat. Given the highly interconnected nature of contemporary agrifood systems, few will remain unaffected by this new global food shock.

Mitigate the immediate crisis

The first priority, according to the authors, is to mitigate the immediate crisis by boosting wheat production in existing high- and low-productivity areas, ensuring grain access and blending wheat flour with other low-cost cereals. Bundled agronomic and breeding improvements and sustainable farming practices can reduce dependence on imported grain and fertilizer, while coordinated, multilateral policies can help conserve grain stocks for human consumption and avert trade restrictions.

Increase the resilience of wheat supply

In the medium term, the authors emphasized the need to increase the local, regional, and global resilience of the wheat supply. This can be done by expanding production within agro-ecological boundaries, supporting national wheat self-sufficiency and providing technical assistance, to increase the production of high-yielding disease-resistant wheat and to mainstream capacity for pest and disease monitoring.

Transition to system-level resilience

Finally, to reach crucially needed resilience in the world’s agrifood system, long-term measures must be taken that encompass agroecosystem diversity, address gender disparities in agriculture and rural communities and sustain increased investment in a holistic, agrifood transition.

“The current global food crisis underscores and compounds existing inequalities in our global food system,” Bentley said. “A transition to agrifood system resilience requires us to urgently balance global food supply needs with the multi-layered challenges of climate change, achieving gender equity, nutritional sufficiency and livelihood security.”


RELATED RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS:

Near- to long-term measures to stabilize global wheat supplies and food security

This research is supported by CGIAR Trust Fund Contributors.

INTERVIEW OPPORTUNITIES:

Alison Bentley – Director, Global Wheat Program, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT)

FOR MORE INFORMATION, OR TO ARRANGE INTERVIEWS, CONTACT THE MEDIA TEAM:

Marcia MacNeil, Head of Communications, CIMMYT. m.macneil@cgiar.org, +52 5558042004 ext. 2019.

Rodrigo Ordóñez, Communications Manager, CIMMYT. r.ordonez@cgiar.org, +52 5558042004 ext. 1167.

Ricardo Curiel, Communications Manager, CIMMYT. r.curiel@cgiar.org, +52 5558042004 ext. 1144.

ABOUT CIMMYT:

The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) is an international organization focused on non-profit agricultural research and training that empowers farmers through science and innovation to nourish the world in the midst of a climate crisis.

Applying high-quality science and strong partnerships, CIMMYT works to achieve a world with healthier and more prosperous people, free from global food crises and with more resilient agrifood systems. CIMMYT’s research brings enhanced productivity and better profits to farmers, mitigates the effects of the climate crisis, and reduces the environmental impact of agriculture.

CIMMYT is a member of CGIAR, a global research partnership for a food secure future dedicated to reducing poverty, enhancing food and nutrition security, and improving natural resources.

For more information, visit staging.cimmyt.org.

Rapid Point-of-Care Diagnostics for Wheat Rusts (MARPLE)

MARPLE (Mobile And Real-time PLant disEase) diagnostics is a new innovative approach for fungal crop pathogen diagnostics developed by Diane Saunders’s team at the John Innes Centre.

MARPLE is the first operational system in the world using nanopore sequencing for rapid diagnostics and surveillance of complex fungal pathogens in situ. Generating results in 48 hours of field sampling, this new digital diagnostic strategy is leading revolutionary changes in plant disease diagnostics. Rapid strain level diagnostics are essential to quickly find new emergent strains and guide appropriate control measures.

Through this project, CIMMYT will:

  • Deploy and scale MARPLE to priority geographies and diseases as part of the Current and Emerging Threats to Crops Innovation Lab led by Penn State University / PlantVillage and funded by USAID’s Feed the Future.
  • Build national partner capacity for advanced disease diagnostics. We will focus geographically on Ethiopia, Kenya and Nepal for deployment of wheat stripe and stem rust diagnostics, with possible expansion to Bangladesh and Zambia (wheat blast).
  • Integrate this new in-country diagnostic capacity with recently developed disease forecasting models and early warning systems. Already functional for wheat stripe rust, the project plans to expand MARPLE to incorporate wheat stem rust and wheat blast.

MARPLE reaches South Asia

Workshop participants stand for a group photo. (Photo: Danny Ward/John Innes Centre)
Workshop participants stand for a group photo. (Photo: Danny Ward/John Innes Centre)

On April 26–29, 2022, researchers from Nepal participated in a workshop on the use of MARPLE Diagnostics, the most advanced genetic testing methodology for strain-level diagnostics of the deadly wheat yellow rust fungus. Scientists from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and the John Innes Centre trained 21 researchers from the Nepal Agricultural Research Council (NARC) and one from iDE. The workshop took place at NARC’s National Plant Pathology Research Centre in Khumaltar, outside the capital Kathmandu.

“The need for new diagnostic technologies like MARPLE and the critical timing of the workshop was highlighted by the severe yellow rust outbreak observed this season in the western areas of Nepal,” commented Dave Hodson, Senior Scientist at CIMMYT and project co-lead. “Having national capacity to detect the increasing threats from yellow rust using MARPLE will be an important tool to help combat wheat rusts in Nepal”.

The yellow rust fungus can cause grain yield losses of 30–80 % to wheat, Nepal’s third most important food crop.

Current diagnostic methods for wheat rust used in Nepal are slow, typically taking months between collecting the sample and final strain identification. They are also costly and reliant on sending samples overseas to highly specialized labs for analysis.

MARPLE (Mobile and Real-time PLant disEase) Diagnostics is the first method to place strain-level genetic diagnostics capability directly into the hands of Nepali researchers, generating data in-country in near-real time, for immediate integration into early warning systems and disease management decisions.

“This is a fantastic opportunity to bring the latest innovations in plant disease diagnostics for the wheat rust pathogens to where they are needed most, in the hands of researchers in the field working tirelessly to combat these devastating diseases,” commented Diane Saunders, Group Leader at the John Innes Centre and project co-lead.

Diane Saunders (left), Group Leader at the John Innes Centre and project co-lead, observes workshop participants during the use of MARPLE. (Photo: Danny Ward/John Innes Centre)
Diane Saunders (left), Group Leader at the John Innes Centre and project co-lead, observes workshop participants during the use of MARPLE. (Photo: Danny Ward/John Innes Centre)

Suraj Baidya senior scientist and chief of the National Plant Pathology Research Centre at NARC noted the worrying recent geographical expansion of yellow rust in Nepal. “Due to global warming, yellow rust has now moved into the plain and river basin area likely due to evolution of heat tolerant pathotypes. MARPLE Diagnostics now gives us the rapid diagnostics needed to help identify and manage these changes in the rust pathogen population diversity,” he said.

The highly innovative MARPLE Diagnostics approach uses the hand-held MinION nanopore sequencer, built by Oxford Nanopore, to generate genetic data to type strains of the yellow rust fungus directly from field samples.

Beyond MARPLE Diagnostics, Saunders noted that “the workshop has also opened up exciting new possibilities for researchers in Nepal, by providing local genome-sequencing capacity that is currently absent.”

MARPLE (Mobile and Real-time PLant disEase) Diagnostics is a revolutionary mobile lab kit. It uses nanopore sequence technology to rapidly diagnose and monitor wheat rust in farmers’ fields. (Photo: Danny Ward/John Innes Centre)
MARPLE (Mobile and Real-time PLant disEase) Diagnostics is a revolutionary mobile lab kit. It uses nanopore sequence technology to rapidly diagnose and monitor wheat rust in farmers’ fields. (Photo: Danny Ward/John Innes Centre)

What’s next for MARPLE Diagnostics in Nepal?

Following the successful workshop, Nepali researchers will be supported by CIMMYT and the John Innes Centre to undertake MARPLE Diagnostics on field samples collected by NARC. “The current plan includes monitoring of yellow rust on the summer wheat crop planted at high hill areas and then early sampling in the 2022/23 wheat season,” Hodson noted.

“We were struck by the enthusiasm and dedication of our colleagues to embrace the potential offered by MARPLE Diagnostics. Looking forward, we are excited to continue working with our Nepali colleagues towards our united goal of embedding this methodology in their national surveillance program for wheat rusts,” Saunders remarked.

MARPLE Diagnostics is supported by the Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Current and Emerging Threats to Crops, funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the UK Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) Innovator of the Year Award, the CGIAR Big Data Platform Inspire Challenge, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the United Kingdom’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.

This article was originally published on the JIC website.

Another food crisis?

Mature wheat spikes. (Photo: Alfonso Cortés/CIMMYT)
Mature wheat spikes. (Photo: Alfonso Cortés/CIMMYT)

The impacts of the Ukraine crisis are likely to reverberate over months, if not years, to come. If the reductions in wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine are as severe as anticipated, global supplies of wheat will be seriously constrained. If a major reduction in fertilizer exports comes to pass, the resulting drop in global productivity will tighten global markets for wheat, other grains and alternate food sources — leaving vulnerable people all over the world facing higher food prices, hunger and malnutrition.

These massive disruptions will erode modest progress made toward gender equality, biodiversity conservation and dietary diversification. The severe impact of this single shock shows the underlying fragility and complexity of our agri-food systems. Climate change will bring many more.

The world must take essential actions to mitigate food shocks, stabilize local wheat supplies and transition toward agri-food system resilience, from the current efficiency-driven model. We call for large and sustained agricultural research investments as a foundational element of any viable, food-secure future.

From chronic challenges to food crisis conditions

Global wheat production for export is geographically concentrated, placing inherent vulnerabilities on the global system. Dominance of the wheat export trade by a relatively small number of countries makes sense under an efficiency paradigm, but it opens the door to price spikes and food-related crises. At the same time, biophysical vulnerability of major global breadbaskets is on the rise as drought and other weather extremes increase volatility in cereal yields, exports and prices.

Russia and Ukraine produce 28% of the world’s total wheat exports and Russia is a globally important source of fuel and fertilizer. With over 2.5 billion people worldwide consuming wheat-based products and wheat futures at their highest levels since 2012, disrupted exports from Russia and Ukraine would usher in substantial new pressures on global wheat markets and tremendous risks for vulnerable populations around the world.

Dependence on wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine imperils food security in lower- and middle-income countries in North Africa and the Middle East (Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Yemen), the Mediterranean (Azerbaijan, Turkey), sub-Saharan Africa (Nigeria, Sudan), Southern Asia (Bangladesh, Pakistan) and throughout Southeast Asia. Globally elevated food prices will hit hardest in those countries already struggling with food insecurity.

Layered onto the existing concentration of wheat-exporting countries and the climate-induced vulnerabilities in essential global breadbaskets, the crisis in Ukraine and trade sanctions on Russia are triggering a level of volatility that could easily overwhelm existing mitigation mechanisms. We may well see a range of negative effects over the short, medium and long term, including:

  • Severe food insecurity and economic impacts due to reduced global wheat supplies and price increases affecting all wheat-importing countries and humanitarian agencies.
  • Diminished global grain productivity due to fertilizer supply limitations and price escalation, especially in low-income, fertilizer-import-dependent countries.
  • Higher food prices and expanded global hunger and malnutrition as a result of tighter fuel supplies driving up costs of agricultural production.
  • Pressure on household budgets negatively affecting nutrition, health, education and gender equity.
The employee of an Ethiopian seed association smiles as bags of wheat seed are ready to be distributed. (Photo: Gerardo MejĂ­a/CIMMYT)
The employee of an Ethiopian seed association smiles as bags of wheat seed are ready to be distributed. (Photo: Gerardo MejĂ­a/CIMMYT)

Stabilize while building resilience

With these multi-layered challenges in view, we propose essential actions to mitigate near-term food security crises, to stabilize wheat supply and to concurrently transition toward agri-food system resilience.

Without doubt, the world’s top priority must be to mitigate food security crises at our doorstep. This will involve boosting wheat production through expanded acreage (e.g. in high-performing systems in the Global North) and closing yield gaps (e.g. improved management and value chains of rainfed, wheat-based systems in the Global South) using policy incentives such as price guarantees and subsidized agricultural inputs. Short-term food insecurity can also be addressed through demand-side management (e.g. market controls to conserve grain stocks for human consumption; use of lower-cost flour blends) and de-risking alternative sourcing (e.g. trade agreements).

As these actions are taken, a range of strategies can simultaneously drive toward more resilient wheat supply at local to global scales. Well-functioning seed systems, demand-driven agronomic support and other elements of wheat self-reliance can be encouraged through shifts in local policy, regulatory and sectoral contexts. Enhanced monitoring capacity can track spatial patterns in wheat cropping, including expansion into areas where comparative advantage for wheat production (e.g. agro-ecological suitability; supporting infrastructure) has been identified in rural development frameworks and national plans (e.g. as a double crop in Ethiopian midlands). In addition to enabling yield forecasts, surveillance systems are critical to phytosanitary control of geographically restricted pathogens under altered wheat trade routes.

Yet, these steps to mitigate food shocks and stabilize local wheat supplies will not adequately protect the world from climate-related biophysical risks to food and nutritional security. In parallel, a transition toward agri-food system resilience requires transformative investments in agricultural diversification, sustainable natural resource management and low-greenhouse-gas agroecosystems, as well as meaningful actions toward achieving gender equality, nutritional sufficiency and livelihood security.

Drone shot of wheat trials at CIMMYT global headquarters in Texcoco, Mexico. (Photo: Alfonso Cortés/CIMMYT)
Drone shot of wheat trials at CIMMYT global headquarters in Texcoco, Mexico. (Photo: Alfonso Cortés/CIMMYT)

Sustained research & development for a food-secure future

None of the critical actions described above are guaranteed given the oscillating global investment in agricultural research. Enabled by decades of agricultural research, the world has managed to constrain the number and severity of food security crises through major gains in agricultural productivity.

The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), the global international wheat research Center of the CGIAR, has been working tirelessly to maintain wheat harvests around the world in the face of mounting disease pressures and climate challenges. The estimated benefit-cost ratio for wheat improvement research ranges from 73:1 to 103:1. Yet, research funding only rises when food crises occur, revealing the globalized risks of our highly interconnected agri-food systems, and then tapers as memories fade.

With limited resources, scientists around the world are attacking the complex challenge of increasing agricultural yields and ensuring stable, equitable food supplies. Receiving only about 2% of international agricultural research funding over time, CIMMYT and the entire CGIAR have had limited ability to develop the long-term research capabilities that could mitigate or prevent short-term emergencies with medium- to long-term effects.

Responding to the mounting pressures on deeply complex agri-food systems requires integrative solutions that allow farmers and other agri-food stakeholders to mitigate and withstand shocks and to achieve viable livelihoods. Knowledge and technology needs are extensive across production systems (e.g. wheat-legume intercropping; cereals-focused agroecological interventions), value chains (e.g. context-appropriate seed systems; nutrition enhancement through flour blending), monitoring systems (e.g. genomics-based surveillance), and social dimensions (e.g. gender implications of new production and consumption strategies; policy interventions).

Generating such solutions depends on robust, multidisciplinary and transparent research capabilities that fuel the transition to agri-food system resilience. Robust international investment in resilient agricultural systems is an essential condition for national security, global peace and prosperity.

Read the full article (pre-print):
Another food crisis? The Ukraine conflict, global wheat supply and food security

Explore our coverage and analysis of the Russia-Ukraine war and its impact on global food security.
Explore our coverage and analysis of the Russia-Ukraine war and its impact on global food security.

Can you help shape the future of plant disease detection?

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) are increasingly being applied across a diverse range of disciplines. Many aspects of our lives and work are now benefiting from these technologies. Disease recognition, for both human and plant health, is no exception. Ever more powerful AI/ML techniques are now opening up exciting opportunities to improve surveillance, monitoring and early warning for disease threats.

Scientists from Penn State University/PlantVillage, working with CGIAR centers, FAO and national country partners, are at the forefront of AI/ML technology development applied to crop pest and disease recognition. Development of the “PlantVillage Nuru” mobile app has provided an accurate and simple automated disease diagnostic tool that can be used by non-experts, including farmers. A recent paper published in Frontiers of Plant Science demonstrated that Nuru could diagnose symptoms of cassava diseases at higher accuracy than agricultural extension agents or farmers.

“The value of tools like PlantVillage Nuru is that we can greatly increase the coverage and speed of surveillance,” says CIMMYT scientist and disease surveillance expert Dave Hodson. “Trained pathologists can only visit a limited number of fields at fixed times in the season. With tools like Nuru, extension agents and farmers can all contribute to field surveys. This can result in much faster detection of disease outbreaks, better early warning and improved chances of control”.

New advances in AI/ML technology are now promising even greater improvements in these already powerful tools. CIMMYT scientists have had a long-standing partnership with the PlantVillage group, working to try and develop improved diagnostics for important wheat diseases such as rusts and blast. Considerable progress in developing automated diagnostics for wheat diseases has already been made, but the introduction of advanced image segmentation and tiling techniques promises to be a major leap forward.

“Advances in computer science are constantly happening and this can benefit the mission of CGIAR and PlantVillage,” explains David Hughes, Dorothy Foehr Huck and J. Lloyd Huck Chair in Global Food Security at Penn State and founder of PlantVillage.

“Image segmentation and tiling techniques are a great example. They used to require intensive computing requirements. Now due to advances in computer science these powerful techniques are becoming more accessible and can be applied to plant disease problems like wheat rusts.”

By using these image segmentation and tiling techniques the developers at PlantVillage are now seeing a major improvement in the ability to automatically and accurately detect wheat rusts from in situ photos. “We could not identify rusts with the older approaches but this segmentation and tiling tool is a game changer. The computer goes pixel by pixel across the images which is well suited to diseases like rusts that can be spread across the leaf or stem of the plant. The computer now has a much more powerful search algorithm.”

The team led by Pete McCloskey, lead A.I. engineer at Plant Village, actually used a multi-step process. First they removed the background to help the machine focus in on the leaf. They then digitally chopped the leaf into segments giving the AI a further helping hand so it can focus in and find the rust. Then the whole leaf is stitched together and the rust is highlighted to help humans working in the PlantVillage cloud system.

Fig: Examples of manual, hand labelled images (top rows) compared to AI generated images using segmentation and tiling (bottom rows) for stem rust (upper image panel) and stripe rust (lower image panel).

This exciting new development in rapid, accurate field detection of wheat rusts now needs validation and improvement. As with all AI/ML applications, numbers of images included in the models really improve the quality of the final predictions. “The success of any machine learning model is rooted in the quality and quantity of the data it is trained on,” notes McCloskey. “Therefore, it is critical to source vast and diverse amounts of high-quality images from around the world in order to develop a global wheat rust recognition system.” In this aspect we hope that the CIMMYT global wheat community can help drive the development of these exciting new tools forward.

CIMMYT and PlantVillage are hoping to expand the current wheat rust image dataset and as a result produce an even more valuable, public good, disease detection tool. Given the extensive field work undertaken in wheat fields around the world by CIMMYT staff and partners, we hope that you can help us. Any photos of wheat rusts (stem, stripe and leaf rust) in the field would be valuable.

We would like to have images with one infected leaf or stem per image, it should be vertical in the image so you can see the whole leaf or stem segment. The leaf or stem needs to be in focus and should be roughly centered in the image. It helps to hold the tip of the leaf away from the stem, so it is outstretched and flat. Ideally for training data, the leaf should have only one type of rust and no other disease symptoms. It is okay to have other leaves/stems/soil/sky in the background. It is also okay to have hands and other body parts in the image.

Below are some example images. Any images can be uploaded here.

Sample images show a variety of wheat rusts (stem, stripe and leaf rust) in the field. (Photos: CIMMYT)

For more information contact Dave Hodson, CIMMYT (d.hodson@cgiar.org) or Pete McCloskey, PlantVillage (petermccloskey1@gmail.com). 

‘Sharing’ or ‘sparing’ land?

Any fifth grader is familiar with the Cretaceous-Tertiary mass extinction, which saw dinosaurs — and three quarters of all species alive at that time — disappear from Earth, probably after it was struck by a very large asteroid. However, few people are aware the planet is currently going through a similar event of an equally large magnitude: a recent report from the World Wide Fund for Nature highlighted a 60% decline in the populations of over 4,000 vertebrate species monitored globally since 1970. This time, the culprit is not an asteroid, but human beings. The biggest threat we represent to other species is also the way we meet one of our most fundamental needs: food production.

As a response, scientists, particularly ecologists, have looked for strategies to minimize trade-offs between agriculture and biodiversity. One such strategy is “land sparing,” also known as the “Borlaug effect.” It seeks to segregate production and conservation and to maximize yield on areas as small as possible, sparing land for nature. Another strategy is “land sharing” or “wildlife-friendly farming,” which seeks to integrate production and conservation in the same land units and make farming as benign as possible to biodiversity. It minimizes the use of external inputs and retains unfarmed patches on farmland.

A heated debate between proponents of land sparing and proponents of land sharing has taken place over the past 15 years. Most studies, however, have found land sparing to lead to better outcomes than land sharing, in a range of contexts. With collaborators from CIFOR, UBC and other organizations, I hypothesized that this belief was biased because researchers assessed farming through a narrow lens, only looking at calories or crop yield.

Many more people today suffer from hidden hunger, or lack of vitamins and minerals in their diets, than lack of calories. Several studies have found more diverse and nutritious diets consumed by people living in or near areas with greater tree cover as trees are a key component of biodiversity. However, most of these studies have not looked at mechanisms explaining this positive association.

Forests for food

Studying seven tropical landscapes in Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Nicaragua and Zambia, we found evidence that tree cover directly supports diets in four landscapes out of seven. This may be through the harvest of bushmeat, wild fruits, wild vegetables and other forest-sourced foods. The study further found evidence of an agroecological pathway — that forests and trees support diverse crop and livestock production through an array of ecosystem services, ultimately leading to improved diets — in five landscapes out of seven. These results clearly demonstrate that although land sparing may have the best outcomes for biodiversity, it would cut off rural households from forest products such as forest food, firewood and livestock feed. It would also cut off smallholder farms from ecosystem services provided by biodiversity, and smallholders in the tropics tend to depend more on ecosystem services than on external inputs.

In Ethiopia, previous research conducted by some of the same authors has demonstrated that multifunctional landscapes that do not qualify as land sparing nor as land sharing may host high biodiversity whilst being more productive than simpler landscapes. They are more sustainable and resilient, provide more diverse diets and produce cereals with higher nutritional content.

The debate on land sparing vs. sharing has largely remained confined to the circles of conservation ecologists and has seldom involved agricultural scientists. As a result, most studies on land sparing vs. sharing have focused on minimizing the negative impact of farming on biodiversity, instead of looking for the best compromises between agricultural production and biodiversity conservation.

To design landscapes that truly balance the needs of people and nature, it is urgent for agronomists, agricultural economists, rural sociologists and crop breeders to participate in the land sparing vs. sharing debate.

Read more:
Testing the Various Pathways Linking Forest Cover to Dietary Diversity in Tropical Landscapes

This study was made possible by funding from the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID), the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) through the project Agrarian Change in Tropical Landscapes, and by the CGIAR Research Programs on MAIZE and WHEAT.