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New publications: Role of Modelling in International Crop Research

“Crop modelling has the potential to significantly contribute to global food and nutrition security,” claim the authors of a recently published paper on the role of modelling in international crop research.  “Millions of farmers, and the societies that depend on their production, are relying on us to step up to the plate.”

Among other uses, crop modelling allows for foresight analysis of agricultural systems under global change scenarios and the prediction of potential consequences of food system shocks. New technologies and conceptual breakthroughs have also allowed modelling to contribute to a better understanding of crop performance and yield gaps, improved predictions of pest outbreaks, more efficient irrigation systems and the optimization of planting dates.

While renewed interest in the topic has led in recent years to the development of collaborative initiatives such as the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) and the CGIAR Platform for Big Data in Agriculture, further investment is needed in order to improve the collection of open access, easy-to-use data available for crop modelling purposes. Strong impact on a global scale will require a wide range of stakeholders – from academia to the private sector – to contribute to the development of large, multi-location datasets.

Resource-poor farmers worldwide stand to gain from developments in the field of crop modelling. Photo: H. De Groote/CIMMYT.
Resource-poor farmers worldwide stand to gain from developments in the field of crop modelling. (Photo: H. De Groote/CIMMYT)

In “Role of Modelling in International Crop Research: Overview and Some Case Studies,” CGIAR researchers outline the history and basic principles of crop modelling, and describe major theoretical advances and their practical applications by international crop research centers. They also highlight the importance of agri-food systems, which they view as key to meeting global development challenges. “The renewed focus on the systems-level has created significant opportunities for modelers to participant in enhancing the impact of science on developments. However, a coherent approach based on principles of transparency, cooperation and innovation is essential to achieving this.”

The authors call for closer interdisciplinary collaboration to better serve the crop research and development communities through the provision of model-based recommendations which could range from government-level policy development to direct crop management support for resource-poor farmers.

Read the full article in Agronomy 2018, Volume 8 (12).

Check out other recent publications by CIMMYT researchers below:

  1. A framework for priority-setting in climate smart agriculture research. 2018. Thornton, P.K., Whitbread, A., Baedeker, T., Cairns, J.E., Claessens, L., Baethgen, W., Bunn, C., Friedmann, M., Giller, K.E., Herrero, M., Howden, M., Kilcline, K., Nangia, V., Ramirez Villegas, J., Shalander Kumar, West, P.C., Keating, B. In: Agricultural Systems v. 167, p. 161-175.
  2. Cereal consumption and marketing responses by rural smallholders under rising cereal prices. 2018. Mottaleb, K.A., Rahut, D.B. In: Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies v. 8, no. 3, p. 461-479.
  3. Community typology framed by normative climate for agricultural innovation, empowerment, and poverty reduction. 2018. Petesch, P., Feldman, S., Elias, M., Badstue, L.B., Dina Najjar, Rietveld, A., Bullock, R., Kawarazuka, N., Luis, J. In: Journal of Gender, Agriculture and Food Security v. 3, no. 1, p. 131-157.
  4. Fit for purpose? A review of guides for gender-equitable value chain development. 2018. Stoian, D., Donovan, J.A., Elias, M., Blare, T. In: Development in Practice v. 28, no. 4, p. 494-509.
  5. Gendered aspirations and occupations among rural youth, in agriculture and beyond: a cross-regional perspective. 2018. Elias, M., Netsayi Mudege, Lopez, D.E., Dina Najjar, Kandiwa, V., Luis, J., Jummai Yila, Amare Tegbaru, Gaya Ibrahim, Badstue, L.B., Njuguna-Mungai, E., Abderahim Bentaibi. In: Journal of Gender, Agriculture and Food Security v. 3, no. 1, p. 82-107.
  6. Genome-wide association study reveals novel genomic regions for grain yield and yield-related traits in drought-stressed synthetic hexaploid wheat. 2018. Bhatta, M.R., Morgounov, A.I., Belamkar, V., Baenziger, P.S. In: International Journal of Molecular Sciences v. 19, no. 10, art. 3011.
  7. Identificacion de areas potenciales en Mexico para la intervencion con maiz biofortificado con zinc = Identification of potential areas in Mexico for intervention with biofortified high-zinc maize. 2018. Ramirez-Jaspeado, R., Palacios-Rojas, N., Salomon, P., Donnet, M.L. In: Revista Fitotecnia Mexicana v. 4, no. 3, p. 327 – 337.
  8. Impact of climate-change risk-coping strategies on livestock productivity and household welfare: empirical evidence from Pakistan. 2018. Rahut, D.B., Ali, A. In: Heliyon v. 4, no. 10, art. e00797.
  9. Impact of conservation agriculture on soil physical properties in rice-wheat system of eastern indo-gangetic plains. 2018. Kumar, V., Kumar, M., Singh, S.K., Jat, R.K. In: Journal of Animal and Plant Sciences v. 28, no. 5, p. 1432-1440.
  10. Impact of ridge-furrow planting in Pakistan: empirical evidence from the farmer’s field. 2018. Hussain, I., Ali, A., Ansaar Ahmed, Hafiz Nasrullah, Badar ud Din Khokhar, Shahid Iqbal, Azhar Mahmood Aulakh, Atta ullah Khan, Jamil Akhter, Gulzar Ahmed. In: International Journal of Agronomy v. 2018, art. 3798037.
  11. Introduction to special issue: smallholder value chains as complex adaptive systems. 2018. Orr, A., Donovan, J.A. In: Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies v. 8, no. 1, p. 2-13.
  12. Local dynamics of native maize value chains in a peri-urban zone in Mexico: the case of San Juan Atzacualoya in the state of Mexico. 2018. Boue, C., Lopez-Ridaura, S., Rodriguez Sanchez, L.M., Hellin, J. J., Fuentes Ponce, M. In: Journal of Rural Studies v. 64, p. 28-38.
  13. Local normative climate shaping agency and agricultural livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa. 2018. Petesch, P., Bullock, R., Feldman, S., Badstue, L.B., Rietveld, A., Bauchspies, W., Kamanzi, A., Amare Tegbaru, Jummai Yila. In: Journal of Gender, Agriculture and Food Security v. 3, no. 1, p. 108-130.
  14. Maize seed systems in different agro-ecosystems; what works and what does not work for smallholder farmers. 2018. Hoogendoorn, C., Audet-Bélanger, G., Boeber, C., Donnet, M.L., Lweya, K.B., Malik, R., Gildemacher, P. In: Food security v. 10, no. 4, p. 1089–1103.
  15. Mapping adult plant stem rust resistance in barley accessions Hietpas-5 and GAW-79. 2018. Case, A.J., Bhavani, S., Macharia, G., Pretorius, Z.A., Coetzee, V., Kloppers, F.J., Tyagi, P., Brown-Guedira, G., Steffenson, B.J. In: Theoretical and Applied Genetics v. 131, no. 10, p. 2245–2266.
  16. Potential for re-emergence of wheat stem rust in the United Kingdom. 2018. Lewis, C.M., Persoons, A., Bebber, D.P., Kigathi, R.N., Maintz, J., Findlay, K., Bueno-Sancho, V., Corredor-Moreno, P., Harrington, S.A., Ngonidzashe Kangara, Berlin, A., Garcia, R., German, S.E., Hanzalova, A., Hodson, D.P., Hovmoller, M.S., Huerta-Espino, J., Imtiaz, M., Mirza, J.I., Justesen, A.F., Niks, R.E., Ali Omrani., Patpour, M., Pretorius, Z.A., Ramin Roohparvar, Hanan Sela, Singh, R.P., Steffenson, B.J., Visser, B., Fenwick, P., Thomas, J., Wulff, B.B.H.,  Saunders, D.G.O. In: Communications Biology v. 1, art. 13.
  17. Qualitative, comparative, and collaborative research at large scale: an introduction to GENNOVATE. 2018. Badstue, L.B., Petesch, P., Feldman, S., Prain, G., Elias, M., Kantor, P. In: Journal of Gender, Agriculture and Food Security v. 3, no. 1, p. 1-27.
  18. Qualitative, comparative, and collaborative research at large scale: the GENNOVATE field methodology. 2018. Petesch, P., Badstue, L.B., Camfield, L., Feldman, S., Prain, G., Kantor, P. In: Journal of Gender, Agriculture and Food Security v. 3, no. 1, p. 28-53.
  19. Transaction costs, land rental markets, and their impact on youth access to agriculture in Tanzania. 2018. Ricker-Gilbert, J., Chamberlin, J. In: Land Economics v. 94, no. 4, p. 541-555.
  20. What drives capacity to innovate? Insights from women and men small-scale farmers in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. 2018. Badstue, L.B., Lopez, D.E., Umantseva, A., Williams, G.J., Elias, M., Farnworth, C.R., Rietveld, A., Njuguna-Mungai, E., Luis, J., Dina Najjar., Kandiwa, V. In: Journal of Gender, Agriculture and Food Security v. 3, no. 1, p. 54-81.

 

Are advisory apps a solution for collecting Big Data?

Big Data is transforming the way scientists conduct agricultural research and helping smallholder farmers receive useful information in real time. Experts and partners of the CGIAR Platform for Big Data in Agriculture are meeting on October 3-5, 2018, in Nairobi, Kenya, to share their views on how to harness this data revolution for greater food and nutrition security.

Jordan Chamberlin, Spatial Economist at CIMMYT, will give his insights on best practices on electronic data capture on October 4, 2018.

NAIROBI (Kenya) — Agronomic researchers face several challenges and limitations related to data. To provide accurate predictions and useful advice to smallholder farmers, scientists need to collect many types of on-farm data; for example, field size, area devoted to each crop, inputs used, agronomic practices followed, incidence of pests and diseases, and yield.

These pieces of data are expensive to obtain by traditional survey methods, such as sending out enumerators to ask farmers a long list of questions. Available data is often restricted to a particular geographical area and may not capture key factors of production variability, like local soil characteristics, fertilizer timing or crop rotations.

As a result, such datasets cannot deliver yield predictions at scale, one of the main expectations of Big Data. Digital advisory apps may be part of the solution, as they use crowdsourcing to routinize data collection on key agronomic variables.

The Taking Maize Agronomy to Scale in Africa (TAMASA) project has been researching the use of mobile apps to provide site-specific agronomic advice to farmers through agro-dealers, extension workers and other service providers.

At CIMMYT, one of the research questions we were interested in was “Why are plant population densities in farmers fields usually well below recommended rates?” From surveys and yield estimates based on crop-cut samples at harvest in Ethiopia, Nigeria and Tanzania, we observed that yields were correlated with plant density.

What was making some farmers not use enough seeds for their fields? One possible reason could be that farmers may not know the size of their maize field. In other cases, farmers and agro-dealers may not know how many seeds are in one packet, as companies rarely indicate it and the weight of each seed variety is different. Or perhaps farmers may not know what plant population density is best to use. Seed packets sometimes suggest a sowing rate but this advice is rather generic and assumes that farmers apply recommended fertilizer rates. However, farmers’ field conditions differ, as does their capacity to invest in expensive fertilizers.

To help farmers overcome these challenges, we developed a simple app, Maize-Seed-Area. It enables farmers, agro-dealers and extension workers to measure the size of a maize field and to identify its key characteristics. Then, using that data, the app can generate advice on plant spacing and density, calculate how much seed to buy, and provide information on seed varieties available at markets nearby.

View of the interface of the Maize-Seed-Area app on mobile phones and tablets. (Photo: CIMMYT)
View of the interface of the Maize-Seed-Area app on mobile phones and tablets. (Photo: CIMMYT)

Maize-Seed-Area is developed using the Open Data Kit (ODK) format, which allows to collect data offline and to submit it when internet connection becomes available. In this case, the app is also used to deliver information to the end users.

Advisory apps usually require some input data from farmers, so advice can be tailored to their particular circumstances. For example, they might need to provide data on the slope of their field, previous crops or fertilizer use. Some additional information may be collected through the app, such as previous seed variety use. All this data entered by the user, which should be kept to a minimum, is routinely captured by the app and retrieved later.

Hello, Big Data!

As the app user community grows, datasets on farmer practices and outcomes grow as well. In this case, we can observe trends in real time, for instance on the popularity of different maize varieties.

In a pilot in western Kenya, in collaboration with Precision Agriculture for Development (PAD), some 100 agro-dealers and extension workers used the app to give advice to about 2,900 farmers. Most of the advice was on the amount of seed to buy for a given area and on the characteristics of different varieties.

Data showed that the previous year farmers grew a wide range of varieties, but that three of them were dominant: DK8031, Duma43 and WH505.

Preferred variety of maize for sample farmers in western Kenya (Bungoma, Busia, Kakamega and Siaya counties), February-March 2018.
Preferred variety of maize for sample farmers in western Kenya (Bungoma, Busia, Kakamega and Siaya counties), February-March 2018.

A phone survey among some 300 of the farmers who received advice found that most of them anticipated to do things differently in the future, ranging from asking for advice again (37 percent), growing a different maize variety (31 percent), buying a different quantity of seed (19 percent), using different plant spacing (18 percent) or using more fertilizer (16 percent).

Most of the agro-dealers and extension workers have kept the app for future use.

The dataset was collected in a short period of time, just two months, and was available as soon as app users got online.

The Maize-Seed-Area pilot shows that advisory apps, when used widely, are a major source of new Big Data on agronomic practices and farmer preferences. They also help to make data collection easier and cheaper.

TAMASA is supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and is implemented by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), the International Plant Nutrition Institute (IPNI) and Africa Soil Information Service (AfSIS).

Suitcase-sized lab speeds up wheat rust diagnosis

A farm landscape in Ethiopia. (Photo: Apollo Habtamu/ILRI)
A farm landscape in Ethiopia. (Photo: Apollo Habtamu/ILRI)

Despite her unassuming nature, the literary character Miss Marple solves murder mysteries with her keen sense of perception and attention to detail. But there’s another sleuth that goes by the same name. MARPLE (Mobile And Real-time PLant disEase) is a portable testing lab which could help speed-up the identification of devastating wheat rust diseases in Africa.

Rust diseases are one of the greatest threats to wheat production around the world. Over the last decade, more aggressive variants that are adapted to warmer temperatures have emerged. By quickly being able to identify the strain of rust disease, researchers and farmers can figure out the best course of action before it is too late.

The Saunders lab of the John Innes Centre created MARPLE. In collaboration with the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR) and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), researchers are testing the mobile diagnostic kit in Holeta, central Ethiopia.

“These new pathogen diagnostic technologies … offer the potential to revolutionize the speed at which new wheat rust strains can be identified,” says Dave Hodson, a CIMMYT rust pathologist in Ethiopia. “This is critical information that can be incorporated into early warning systems and result in more effective control of disease outbreaks in farmers’ fields.”

Hodson and his colleagues will be presenting their research at the CGIAR Big Data in Agriculture Convention in Nairobi, on October 3-5, 2018.

Read more about the field testing of the MARPLE diagnostic kit on the ACACIA website.