Washiq Faisal is a Research Associate with CIMMYT’s sustainable intensification program, based in Bangladesh. He joined CIMMYT in 2014 and has been involved in applied agricultural research to tackle food insecurity through improved nutrient-rich, high-yielding varieties and sustainable agronomic practices for nearly 15 years.
Faisal is involved in innovative and multi-disciplinary research focused on the principles of sustainable and ecological intensification in smallholder dominated and tropical agricultural systems in Bangladesh. His current research focuses on climate-driven epidemiology of two crop diseases, Stemphylium blight of lentil and wheat leaf rust.
In collaboration with the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) and Bangladesh Department of Agricultural Extension, Faisal learnt how to use Agvisely, an agro-meteorological services tool providing location-specific advice to farmers.
A blast-blighted stalk of wheat. (Photo: Chris Knight/Cornell)
Every year, the spores of the wheat blast fungus lie in wait on farms in South America, Bangladesh, and beyond. In most years, the pathogen has only a small impact on the countries’ wheat crops. But the disease spreads quickly, and when the conditions are right there’s a risk of a large outbreak — which can pose a serious threat to the food security and livelihood of farmers in a specific year.
To minimize this risk, an international partnership of researchers and organizations have created the wheat blast Early Warning System (EWS), a digital platform that notifies farmers and officials when weather conditions are ideal for the fungus to spread. The team, which began its work in Bangladesh, is now introducing the technology to Brazil — the country where wheat blast was originally discovered in 1985.
The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA), Brazil’s University of Passo Fundo (UPF) and others developed the tool with support from USAID under the Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia (CSISA) project.
Although first developed with the help of Brazilian scientists for Bangladesh, the EWS has now come full circle and is endorsed and being used by agriculture workers in Brazil. The team hopes that the system will give farmers time to take preventative measures against the disease.
Outbreaks can massively reduce crop yields, if no preventative actions are taken.
“It can be very severe. It can cause a lot of damage,” says Maurício Fernandes, a plant epidemiologist with EMBRAPA.
Striking first
In order to expand into a full outbreak, wheat blast requires specific temperature and humidity conditions. So, Fernandes and his team developed a digital platform that runs weather data through an algorithm to determine the times and places in which outbreaks are likely to occur.
If the system sees a region is going to grow hot and humid enough for the fungus to thrive, it sends an automated message to the agriculture workers in the area. These messages — texts or emails — alert them to take preemptive measures against the disease.
More than 6,000 extension agents in Bangladesh have already signed up for disease early warnings.
In Brazil, Fernandes and his peers are connecting with farmer cooperatives. These groups, which count a majority of Brazilian farmers as members, can send weather data to help inform the EWS, and can spread alerts through their websites or in-house applications.
Wheat blast can attack a plant quickly, shriveling and deforming the grain in less than a week from the first symptoms. Advance warnings are essential to mitigate losses. The alerts sent out will recommend that farmers apply fungicide, which only works when applied before infection.
“If the pathogen has already affected the plant, the fungicides will have no effect,” Fernandes says.
A blast from the past
Because wheat had not previously been exposed to Magnaporthe oryzae, most wheat cultivars at the time had no natural resistance to Magnaporthe oryzae, according to Fernandes. Some newer varieties are moderately resistant to the disease, but the availability of sufficient seed for farmers remains limited.
The pathogen can spread through leftover infected seeds and crop residue. But its spores can also travel vast distances through the air.
If the fungus spreads and infects enough plants, it can wreak havoc over large areas. In the 1990s — shortly after its discovery — wheat blast impacted around three million hectares of wheat in South America. Back in 2016, the disease appeared in Bangladesh and South Asia for the first time, and the resulting outbreak covered around 15,000 hectares of land. CGIAR estimates that the disease has the potential to reduce the region’s wheat production by 85 million tons.
In Brazil, wheat blast outbreaks can have a marked impact on the country’s agricultural output. During a major outbreak in 2009, the disease affected as many as three million hectares of crops in South America. As such, the EWS is an invaluable tool to support food security and farmer livelihoods. Fernandes notes that affected regions can go multiple years between large outbreaks, but the threat remains.
“People forget about the disease, then you have an outbreak again,” he says.
Essential partnerships
The EWS has its roots in Brazil. In 2017 Fernandes and his peers published a piece of research proposing the model. After that, Tim Krupnik, a senior scientist and country representative with CIMMYT in Bangladesh, along with a group of researchers and organizations, launched a pilot project in Bangladesh.
There, agriculture extension officers received an automated email or text message when weather conditions were ideal for wheat blast to thrive and spread. The team used this proof of concept to bring it back to Brazil.
According to Krupnik, the Brazil platform is something of a “homecoming” for this work. He also notes that cooperation between the researchers, organizations and agriculture workers in Brazil and Bangladesh was instrumental in creating the system.
“From this, we’re able to have a partnership that I think will have a significant outcome in Brazil, from a relatively small investment in research supplied in Bangladesh. That shows you the power of partnerships and how solutions can be found to pressing agricultural problems through collaborative science, across continents,” he says.
The Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARRCC) program is managed by the UK Met Office, supported by the World Bank and the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID). The four-year program, which started in 2018, aims to strengthen weather forecasting systems across Asia. The program will deliver new technologies and innovative approaches to help vulnerable communities use weather warnings and forecasts to better prepare for climate-related shocks.
Since 2019, as part of ARRCC, CIMMYT has been working with the Met Office and Cambridge University to pilot an early warning system to deliver wheat rust and blast disease predictions directly to farmers’ phones in Bangladesh and Nepal.
The system was first developed in Ethiopia. It uses weather information from the Met Office, the UK’s national meteorological service, along with field and mobile phone surveillance data and disease spread modeling from the University of Cambridge, to construct and deploy a near real-time early warning system.
Phase I: 12-Month Pilot Phase
Around 50,000 smallholder farmers are expected to receive improved disease warnings and appropriate management advisories in the first 12 months as part of a proof-of-concept modeling and pilot advisory extension phase focused on three critical diseases:
Wheat stripe rust in Nepal: extend and test the modelling framework developed in Ethiopia to smallholder farmers in Nepal as proof-of concept;
Wheat stem rust in Bangladesh and Nepal: while stem rust is currently not widely established in South Asia, models indicate that devastating incursion from neighboring regions is likely. This work will prepare for potential incursions of new rust strains in both countries;
Wheat blast in Bangladesh: this disease is now established in Bangladesh. This work will establish the feasibility of adapting the dispersal modelling framework to improve wheat blast predictability and deploy timely preventative management advisories to farmers.
Phase II: Scaling-out wheat rust early warning advisories, introducing wheat blast forecasting and refinement model refinement
Subject to funding approval the second year of the project will lead to validation of the wheat rust early warnings, in which researchers compare predictions with on-the-ground survey results, increasingly supplemented with farmer response on the usefulness of the warnings facilitated by national research and extension partners. Researchers shall continue to introduce and scale-out improved early warning systems for wheat blast. Concomitantly, increasing the reach of the advice to progressively larger numbers of farmers while refining the models in the light of results. We anticipate that with sufficient funding, Phase II activities could reach up to 300,000 more farmers in Nepal and Bangladesh.
Phase III: Demonstrating that climate services can increase farmers’ resilience to crop diseases
As experience is gained and more data is accumulated from validation and scaling-out, researchers will refine and improve the precision of model predictions. They will also place emphasis on efforts to train partners and operationalize efficient communication and advisory dissemination channels using information communication technologies (ICTs) for extension agents and smallholders. Experience from Ethiopia indicates that these activities are essential in achieving ongoing sustainability of early warning systems at scale. Where sufficient investment can be garnered to support the third phase of activities, it is expected that an additional 350,000 farmers will receive disease management warnings and advisories in Nepal and Bangladesh, totaling 1 million farmers over a three-year period.
Objectives
Review the feasibility of building resilience to wheat rust through meteorologically informed early warning systems.
Adapt and implement epidemiological forecasting protocols for wheat blast in South Asia.
Implement processes to institutionalize disease early warning systems in Nepal and Bangladesh.
An early warning system set to deliver wheat disease predictions directly to farmers’ phones is being piloted in Bangladesh and Nepal by interdisciplinary researchers.
Experts in crop disease, meteorology and computer science are crunching data from multiple countries to formulate models that anticipate the spread of the wheat rust and blast diseases in order to warn farmers of likely outbreaks, providing time for pre-emptive measures, said Dave Hodson, a principal scientist with the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) coordinating the pilot project.
Around 50,000 smallholder farmers are expected to receive improved disease warnings and appropriate management advisories through the one-year proof-of-concept project, as part of the UK Aid-funded Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARRCC) program.
Early action is critical to prevent crop diseases becoming endemic. The speed at which wind-dispersed fungal wheat diseases are spreading through Asia poses a constant threat to sustainable wheat production of the 130 million tons produced in the region each year.
“Wheat rust and blast are caused by fungal pathogens, and like many fungi, they spread from plant to plant — and field to field — in tiny particles called spores,” said Hodson. “Disease strain mutations can overcome resistant varieties, leaving farmers few choices but to rely on expensive and environmentally-damaging fungicides to prevent crop loss.”
“The early warning system combines climate data and epidemiology models to predict how spores will spread through the air and identifies environmental conditions where healthy crops are at risk of infection. This allows for more targeted and optimal use of fungicides.”
The system was first developed in Ethiopia. It uses weather information from the Met Office, the UK’s national meteorological service, along with field and mobile phone surveillance data and disease spread modeling from the University of Cambridge, to construct and deploy a near real-time early warning system.
CIMMYT consultant Madan Bhatta conducts field surveys using Open Data Kit (ODK) in the mid-hills of Nepal. (Photo: D. Hodson/CIMMYT)
Initial efforts focused on adapting the wheat stripe and stem rust model from Ethiopia to Bangladesh and Nepal have been successful, with field surveillance data appearing to align with the weather-driven disease early warnings, but further analysis is ongoing, said Hodson.
“In the current wheat season we are in the process of comparing our disease forecasting models with on-the-ground survey results in both countries,” the wheat expert said.
“Next season, after getting validation from national partners, we will pilot getting our predictions to farmers through text-based messaging systems.”
CIMMYT’s strong partnerships with governmental extension systems and farmer associations across South Asia are being utilized to develop efficient pathways to get disease predictions to farmers, said Tim Krupnik, a CIMMYT Senior Scientist based in Bangladesh.
“Partnerships are essential. Working with our colleagues, we can validate and test the deployment of model-derived advisories in real-world extension settings,” Krupnik said. “The forecasting and early warning systems are designed to reduce unnecessary fungicide use, advising it only in the case where outbreaks are expected.”
Local partners are also key for data collection to support and develop future epidemiological modelling, the development of advisory graphics and the dissemination of information, he explained.
The second stage of the project concerns the adaptation of the framework and protocols for wheat blast disease to improve existing wheat blast early warning systems already pioneered in Bangladesh.
Example of weekly stripe rust spore deposition forecast in Nepal. Darker colors represent higher predicted number of spores deposited. The early warning system combines weather information from the Met Office with field and mobile phone surveillance data and disease spread modeling from the University of Cambridge. (Graphic: University of Cambridge and Met Office)
Strong scientific partnership champions diversity to achieve common goals
The meteorological-driven wheat disease warning system is an example of effective international scientific partnership contributing to the UN Sustainable Development Goals, said Sarah Millington, a scientific manager at Atmospheric Dispersion and Air Quality Group with the Met Office.
“Diverse expertise from the Met Office, the University of Cambridge and CIMMYT shows how combined fundamental research in epidemiology and meteorology modelling with field-based disease observation can produce a system that boosts smallholder farmers’ resilience to major agricultural challenges,” she said.
The atmospheric dispersion modeling was originally developed in response to the Chernobyl disaster and since then has evolved to be able to model the dispersion and deposition of a range of particles and gases, including biological particles such as wheat rust spores.
“The framework together with the underpinning technologies are transferable to forecast fungal disease in other regions and can be readily adapted for other wind-dispersed pests and disease of major agricultural crops,” said Christopher Gilligan, head of the Epidemiology and Modelling Group at the University of Cambridge.
Fungal wheat diseases are an increasing threat to farmer livelihoods in Asia
Wheat leaf rust can be spotted on a wheat plant of a highly susceptible variety in Nepal. The symptoms of wheat rust are dusty, reddish-orange to reddish-brown fruiting bodies that appear on the leaf surface. These lesions produce numerous spores, which are spread by wind and splashing water. (Photo: D Hodson/CIMMYT)
While there has been a history of wheat rust disease epidemics in South Asia, new emerging strains and changes to climate pose an increased threat to farmers’ livelihoods. The pathogens that cause rust diseases are continually evolving and changing over time, making them difficult to control.
Stripe rust threatens farmers in Afghanistan, India, Nepal and Pakistan, typically in two out of five seasons, with an estimated 43 million hectares of wheat vulnerable. When weather conditions are conducive and susceptible cultivars are grown, farmers can experience losses exceeding 70%.
Populations of stem rust are building at alarming rates and previously unseen scales in neighboring regions. Stem rust spores can spread across regions on the wind; this also amplifies the threat of incursion into South Asia and the ARRCC program’s target countries, underscoring the very real risk that the disease could reemerge within the subcontinent.
The devastating wheat blast disease, originating in the Americas, suddenly appeared in Bangladesh in 2016, causing wheat crop losses as high as 30% on a large area, and continues to threaten South Asia’s vast wheat lands.
In both cases, quick international responses through CIMMYT, the CGIAR research program on Wheat (WHEAT) and the Borlaug Global Rust Initiative have been able to monitor and characterize the diseases and, especially, to develop and deploy resistant wheat varieties.
The UK aid-funded ARRCC program is led by the Met Office and the World Bank and aims to strengthen weather forecasting systems across Asia. The program is delivering new technologies and innovative approaches to help vulnerable communities use weather warnings and forecasts to better prepare for climate-related shocks.
The early warning system uses data gathered from the online Rust Tracker tool, with additional fieldwork support from the Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia (CSISA), funded by USAID and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, both coordinated by CIMMYT.
Climate Services for Resilient Development (CSRD) is a global partnership that connects climate and environmental science with data streams to generate decision support tools and training for decision-makers in developing countries. Translating complex climate information into easy to understand actionable formats to spread awareness in the form of climate services is core to CSRD’s mission. CSRD works across South Asia (with emphasis on Bangladesh), the Horn of Africa (Ethiopia), and in South America (Colombia) to generate and provide timely and useful climate information, decision tools and services. In South Asia, CSRD focusses the development, supply and adaptation of agricultural climate services to reduce vulnerability by increasing resiliency in smallholder farming systems. These goals are strategically aligned with the Global Framework for Climate Services.
Project description
CSRD in South Asia aims to have the impact by increasing climate resilient farm management, indicated by increased use of climate services and climate information to inform farmers on how to better manage their production systems. CSRD also aims to develop and validate models for agricultural climate services that can be replicated in other regions with similar farming systems and climate risks, while also fine-tuning weather and climate advisories to be most useful to farmers’ decision-making. A series of sustained contributions to CSRD’s Action and Learning Framework Pillars 1-4, detailed below, are envisioned as major project outcomes:
Pillar 1: Create the solution space: CSRD works to establish a problem-focus, to engage key stakeholders, to create a platform for sustained communication and collaboration, and to build synergies among relevant programs.
Pillar 2: Utilize quality data, products, and tools CSRD provides access to useful and available information and technology, and to develop tailored products and services responsive to problem-specific needs.
Pillar 3: Build capacities and platforms CSRD supports the use of targeted products and services, and to promote sustainability, scalability, and replicability.
Pillar 4: Build knowledge A key goal of CSRD’s work is to identify and promote good practices among the global climate services community and to support research efforts and innovation that increase the effectiveness of climate services.
Outputs
CSRD in South Asia will ultimately generate the following broad outputs and services:
A strengthened enabling environment for the generation, uptake, and use of weather and climate services to support resilient agricultural development.
Download the report summarizing CSRD activities, achievements, and challenges during the first year (from November 2016 through December 2017).
The CSRD consortium in South Asia is led by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) in partnership with the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), Bangladesh Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council (BARC), Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI), International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), International Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), University de Passo Fundo (UPF), and the University of Rhode Island (URI). This consortium provides strength and technical expertise to develop relevant climate products that can assist farmers and other stakeholders with relevant information to improve decision making, with the ultimate goal of increasing resilience to climate-related risks. The CSRD consortium also works to assure that climate information can be conveyed in ways that are decision-relevant to farmers and other agricultural stakeholders.
