Maize grain aggregator invests in developing storage for coping with increased grain production. (Credit: Aayush Niroula/CIMMYT)
Him Lal Neupane has been in the business of agriculture for more than a decade. His company Annupurna Suppliers, in Banke District, Nepal, trades in agri products and has an annual turnover of around $626,000, up from $195,000 eight years ago.
Recently, Neupane has been heavily investing in maize. He says involvement from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) in market strengthening has given him the confidence to go big on the crop. He encountered CIMMYT through the meetings led by the organization in the district, as part of its Nepal Seed and Fertilizer (NSAF) project. In the meetings, he was able to hear perspectives on maize production from leading market experts, as well as government officials. Getting direct access to high level government representatives and agricultural scientists was incredibly fruitful and raised his confidence to invest in maize. He also got to air his own grievances about the industry and learn more from other farmers.
âI learnt that the project was invested in training farmers to produce better quality maize,â said Neupane. âIf we get quality products from farmers, I immediately deduced that there is a great chance that the product will keep doing well in the market.â
Neupaneâs confidence in investing in maize has increased thanks to market strengthening from CIMMYT. (Credit: Aayush Niroula/CIMMYT)
In 2022, Neupane bought a truck and has been constructing a massive storage facility that can store up to 4 million kilograms of produce. He has plans for proper grading and drying of maize in the facility to sell to industrial buyers.
The majority maize in Nepal is used as feed for the poultry industry, so there is high value for the crop in the market. âSince Nepal is a big consumer of poultry products and will remain so, it is inevitable that locally produced maize will sell,â explained Neupane.
Neupane went into agriculture because he could not secure employment after completing higher education. He grew up learning and practicing farming, so he understood farmersâ plights and wanted to start a company that would improve their lives. He also wants to grow the industry to curb the countryâs maize import dependence, which has been affected by recent disruptions like the Ukraine conflict and the pandemic. Annually, Nepal imports around $120 million worth of maize, which depletes the countryâs foreign currency reserves.
CIMMYTâs efforts in developing the maize market through value chain coordination and private public partnerships intend to help stakeholders at every level of the industry,âfrom farmers to suppliers like Neupane,âwhose companyâs growth represents a strong reinforcement of confidence in domestic maize production.
Farmer applying urea with a spreader in a rice field. Photo Uttam Kunwar/ CIMMYT
After four decades, new site-specific fertilizer recommendations for rice have been introduced in Nepal that will help farmers increase the cropâs productivity by 10-30%, compared to their current practices.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development (MoALD) endorsed the new fertilizer recommendations for rice crop at a consultative workshop in July 2022 held in Kathmandu. Developed by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), in close collaboration with the Nepal Agriculture Research Councilâs (NARC) National Soil Science Research Center (NSSRC) and International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC), the new regime replaces the existing blanket approach of recommendations to help increase crop yields and fertilizer use efficiency.
The blanket approach assumed the whole country as one domain despite the heterogeneity in soils, other biophysical conditions and agronomic management practices, including crop varieties. As a result, fertilizers were under-utilized in low fertile soils or overused in farms with high soil fertility status, thereby farmers were not able to obtain the achievable yield.
Unlike the generic recommendations, the site-specific fertilizer management will help farmers to determine the cropâs fertilizer requirements based on soil fertility status of a particular farm, attainable yield target of the selected crop variety, cropâs yield response to fertilizers and agronomic management practices, such as irrigation, cropping systems etc. In other words, this new regime allows farmers to produce more with less fertilizers through a balanced application of fertilizers based on available soil properties.
Old is not always gold
Generally, soil fertility status changes every 3-5 years when there is continuous nutrient removal from soils due to an intensive cropping system with the adoption of high nutrient demanding improved and hybrid varieties. Thus, soil fertility management recommendations should be updated periodically but the existing recommendations were not updated since 1976.
Realizing the limitations, CIMMYT through the Nepal Seed and Fertilizer (NSAF) project, supported by USAID, worked with NSSRC and IFDC to formulate fertilizer recommendations for major cereal crops and vegetables for specific domains of the country.
Under NSSRCâs leadership, a âFertilizer Recommendation Committeeâ comprising of a dedicated team of soil scientists within NSSRC and NSAF experts was formed to develop site-specific fertilizer recommendations using the Soil-SMART framework for delivering balanced fertilizers to farmers. Based on soil fertility status, agro-climate, irrigation regimes and geography, the country was divided into six soil fertility domains â four in the Terai region (Eastern, Central, Western and Far-western), one in inner Terai and one in the hills. Under each domain, recommendations were based on the attainable yield, crop variety, and irrigation regime.
This approach was first tested for rice crop.
Formulating new recommendations for rice
Three fundamental steps were used to develop site-specific fertilizer recommendations, which included: i) selection of yield goal, ii) estimation of crop nutrient requirement, and iii) estimation of indigenous nutrient supplies. To collect this information, NSAF and the committee designed field trials on nutrient omission and nutrient rates to determine the yield limiting nutrients and their optimum rate, respectively. Data from fertilizer trials conducted by different research institutes and universities, including trials from the project sites were collected and analyzed by the team to see the cropâs yield response to fertilizers. A modeling approach called Quantitative Evaluation of fertility of the tropical soils (QUEFTS) was also used to estimate the indigenous nutrient supply and attainable yield target of rice for different soil fertility domains. This model was applied as an alternate to extrapolate recommendations in areas where field data were not available, considering large financial and human resources required otherwise to conduct numerous field trials across different soil types and agro ecological zones. The model was validated with field trial data before making extrapolation of the recommendations. The QUEFTS model used soil properties from Nepalâs first digital soil map to identify nutrient status and deficiency.
In addition to agronomic optimum rate, an economic analysis was also conducted to see economic variability of the recommendations.
The newly developed recommendations provide guidance for balanced fertilization as it includes micronutrients zinc and boron, and organic inputs in addition to three major nutrients âNitrogen, Potassium and Phosphorous (NPK). Results from field trials suggested that the new recommendation could increase rice productivity by 10-30% compared to existing farmersâ practice.
Infographic on developing domain specific fertilizer recommendations.
Advocating for endorsement
A three-day workshop was organized by CIMMYT and NSSRC to primarily share and approve the recommended fertilizer dose for rice crop as well as its relevance to achieve potential yield at farm level. Rajendra Mishra, joint secretary of MoALD inaugurated the event that was chaired by the Director of NARCâs Crop and Horticulture Research. Workshop attendees included MoALD, NARC, Department of Agriculture, USAID Nepal, secretaries from the Province Ministry of Land Management, soil scientists, university professors, agronomists and other high-level government officials.
During the workshop, NSAF explained the application of QUEFTS model with reference to the case of rice based on the field trial data for domain specific fertilizer recommendations. Shree Prasad Vista, soil scientist at NSSRC, summarized the results for rice as the approach and facilitated its approval from MoALD. The participants also discussed on strategies to link with the extension system to reach a large number of farmers through the three-tier governments. Fourteen research papers on nutrient management for major cereal crops were also reviewed at the event.
âI congratulate NARC for this historical work on updating the fertilizer recommendations after 46 years. Now, we are moving towards sustainable soil fertility management by adopting site-specific fertilizer recommendations,â said MoALD Secretary Govinda Prasad Sharma.
Although the recommendation for rice was a significant output of the workshop, fertilizer recommendations for other major crops will be carried out following a similar process.
NARCâs Executive Director Deepak Bhandari commented, âIt is our pleasure to move from a blanket approach to site-specific approach. This is a milestone for agricultural research in the country and I would like to thank all the scientists, NSAF project and USAIDâs support for this notable achievement.â
Similarly, speaking at the event, Jason Seuc, Director of Economic Growth Office at USAID Nepal, emphasized the importance of soil fertility management for achieving food security targets set by the Government of Nepal. Seuc remarked that a sustainable soil fertility management is critical not only for food security but also for reducing the environmental pollution.
âFor several years, weâve been building dense data sets with colleagues from the Indian Agricultural Research Council, which have allowed us to unravel complex farm realities through big data analytics, and to determine what agricultural management practices really matter in smallholder systems,â said Andrew McDonald â94, M.S. â98, Ph.D. â03, associate professor of soil and crop sciences in the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences. âThis process has confirmed that planting dates are the foundation for climate resilience and productivity outcomes in the dominant rice-wheat cropping systems in the eastern sector in India.â
The research was conducted through the  Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia (CSISA). CSISA, which is led by CIMMYT with the International Rice Research Institute and the International Food Policy Research Institute as research partners, was established in 2009 to promote durable change at scale in South Asiaâs cereal-based cropping systems.
Researchers found that farmers in eastern India could increase yield by planting wheat earlier â avoiding heat stress as the crop matures â and quantified the potential gains in yields and farm revenues for the region. They also found that the intervention would not negatively impact rice productivity, a key consideration for farmers. Rice alternates with wheat on the cropping calendar, with many farmers growing rice in the wet season and wheat in the dry season.
The study also provides new recommendations for rice sowing dates and types of cultivars, to accommodate the earlier sowing of wheat.
âFarmers are not just managing single crops. They are managing a sequence of decisions,â said McDonald, who has a joint appointment in the Department of Global Development. âTaking a cropping systems approach and understanding how things cascade and interlink informs our research approach and is reflected in the recommendations that emerged from this analysis. Climate resilient wheat starts with rice.â
The research is the result of years of collaboration with international groups and government agencies in India, which have identified the Eastern Ganges Plain as the area with the most potential growth in production. The region will become essential, McDonald said, as the demand for wheat grows, and climate change makes production more difficult and unpredictable; just this year, record heat waves in March and April and food shortages caused by the war in Ukraine â both of which prompted Indiaâs government to instate a ban on wheat exports â have highlighted the need for increased yields and more sustainable farming practices.
âIn the bigger sense, this research is timely because the hazards of climate change aren’t just a hypothetical,â McDonald said. âMany of these areas are stress-prone environments, and extreme weather already constrains productivity. Identifying pragmatic strategies that help farmers navigate current extremes will establish a sound foundation for adapting to progressive climate change.â
Poverty is endemic in the Eastern Ganges Plain, and the region is dominated by small landholders, with varying practices and access to resources. The breadth and specificity of the data collected and analyzed in the study â including field and household survey data, satellite data, and dynamic crop simulations â allowed researchers to understand regional small farmsâ challenges and the barriers to change.
âAt the end of the day, none of this matters unless farmers opt in,â McDonald said. âThereâs a spatial dimension and a household dimension to opportunity. If we can  target approaches accordingly, then we hope to position farmers to make management changes that will benefit the entire food system.â
The study was co-authored with researchers from the Australian Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development, the International Rice Research Institute, the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, the International Food Policy Research Institute, the Indian Council of Agricultural Research and Bihar Agricultural University. The research was supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the U.S. Agency for International Development through grants to the Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia, which is led by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center.
Empty shelfs in a Swiss grocery store. Photo Boris Dunand/Unsplash
The conflict in Ukraine has had a deeply destabilizing effect on the global wheat trade, causing unprecedented price volatility and uncertainty. As my colleagues and I have previously highlighted, the unintended consequences are likely to have outsized impacts on livelihoods in the Global South.
As the G7 group of nations recently acknowledged in a joint statement, the conflict is leading to steep price rises and increasing global food insecurity for millions, especially those most vulnerable, such as women and children.
In a new paper published in Nature Food, scientists and partners of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) present a package of applied solutions to respond to the crisis and ensure future wheat stability.
To stem the potential food crisis, food is needed in more places, and faster.
Recently announced talks between Russia, Turkey, Ukraine and the United Nations, among other negotiations, are already underway as part of this international effort to develop short-term solutions.
However, at present we are seeing the brakes applied in several places. For example, in India century-high temperature extremes have recently reduced official wheat production estimates by 6 percent, leading to reduced export potential. This shows the compounding effect of climatic instability on global wheat markets, an impact that is expected to worsen over time.
In our solutions agenda, we propose a package of short-, medium- and longer-term actions and urge immediate and sustained support for shockproofing major food security staple crops, including wheat.
In the short term, the priority is mitigation of food security shocks through boosting production in existing high- and low-productivity areas, ensuring access to grain, and making use of flour substitution.
In the medium term, we must increase the local, regional, and global resilience of wheat supply through targeted expansion (within agro-ecological boundaries), support for self-sufficiency, comprehensive technical support in production systems, and mainstreamed crop monitoring capacity.
In the longer term, the transition to agri-food system resilience will need to encompass agroecosystem diversity, address gender disparities in agriculture and rural communities, and sustain an increased investment in a holistic, agri-food transition.
Conflict is being waged on wheat on multiple fronts: on battlefields, in the political arena and by our changing climate. Together these factors interact and amplify the threat to staple wheat production. To address this complexity, we now need to move beyond defining the problem to implementing practical action to ensure stable supply.
Participants at the mid-term review and planning meeting on the Guiding Acid Soil Management Investments in Africa (GAIA) project. Photo CIMMYT
The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and the Rwanda Agriculture and Animal Resources Development Board (RAB) recently held a mid-term review and planning meeting on the Guiding Acid Soil Management Investments in Africa (GAIA) project.
The meeting aimed to track the progress made in the first year of the projectâs implementation, identify challenges, document lessons learned, and develop an action plan for the following year, based on identified gaps and priorities.
In his welcoming remarks, RAB Director General Patrick Karangwa highlighted the close partnership between the two institutions.
âThe workshop is not only about reviewing the progress but also about creating a strong partnership and interaction with each other to form a lasting togetherness that can later be useful for supporting each other in running the programâs activities of GAIA in the region,â he said.
Karangwa also noted the dynamism and enthusiasm of the GAIA team and partners, who made âremarkable successesâ during a challenging period due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Along with plant nutrition and improved land management, healthier soils contribute to more productive and profitable smallholder enterprises. The GAIA project uses scalable innovations to provide reliable, timely and actionable data and insights on soil health and crop performance, at farm and regional levels.
The workshop brought together about 49 participant including regional program implementing partners, key stakeholders, and scientists from Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe to  participate in more than 20 face-to-face and virtual presentations,  breakout sessions, and team-building exercises.
âThe key to project success is a strong partnership and collaboration with national and regional partners, particularly with private and public sectors ââ said  Sieglinde Snapp, the director of the Sustainable Agrifood Systems (SAS) program at CIMMYT.
The participants addressed the work undertaken around eight work packages: spatial ex-ante analysis, adoption research on lime value chains, agronomy research for lime recommendations, support to the lime sector, policy support, coordination and advocacy, data use and management, and communication.
GAIA is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and implemented by CIMMYT in partnership with the Centre for Agriculture and Bioscience International; Dalberg; national agricultural research systems in Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, and Tanzania; the Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania; Wageningen University; and the University of California – Davis. The project aims to provide data-driven and spatially explicit recommendations to increase returns on investment for farmers, the private sector, and governments in Africa.
A wheat field of Bamyan, Afghanistan. (Photo: Nigel Poole/SOAS University of London)
The UN High Commissioner Michelle Bachelet recently said of Afghanistan, “In the wake of years of conflict, and since the takeover by the Taliban in August last year, the country has been plunged into a deep economic, social, humanitarian and human rights crisis” (UN News 2022a). International humanitarian agencies and NGOs have persisted in supporting the population, half of whom are suffering food insecurity, and some of whom are facing unprecedented and catastrophic levels of hunger (UN News 2022b). The conflict in Ukraine is exacerbating the crises in poor import-dependent countries and humanitarian programmes, and Afghanistan will be among the most affected (Bentley and Donovan 2022).
The rural sector underlies Afghanistanâs economic potential, with agriculture as the foundation of the economy. Wheat, both irrigated and rainfed, is the principal agricultural crop, and bread is the major component of the Afghan diet. For decades the country has relied for food security on neighbors such as Kazakhstan and Pakistan and import dependence appears to be a permanent feature of the agricultural economy (Sharma and Nang 2018).
In a recent paper published in Plants, People, Planet, CIMMYT scientists and partners from SOAS University of London, Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit, FAO-Afghanistan, The HALO Trust, Afghanaid and the Agricultural Research Institute of Afghanistan call for renewed investment in Afghanistanâs wheat and agricultural sector.
Bread and spread in Bamyan, Afghanistan. (Photo: Nigel Poole/SOAS University of London)
Improved CIMMYT wheat germplasm has supported agricultural development
CIMMYTâs activities in Afghanistan have focused primarily on supporting the national agricultural research system through the provision of elite, widely adapted germplasm with strong disease resistance. Recent estimates of genetic gains over 14 years (2002-2003 to 2015-2016) of testing of CIMMYTâs Elite Spring Wheat Yield Trial material across 11 locations in Afghanistan documents significant grain yield progress of 115 kg/year. Average yields across 11 testing locations ranged from 3.58 to 5.97 t/ha (Sharma et al., 2021). This indicates that yield potential can be increased through introduction and testing of internationally improved germplasm.
But such investment in research has come to a halt. Local public- and private-sector wheat breeding activities have been largely absent in Afghanistan for over a decade. Hence, wheat productivity remains low due to the limited availability of improved varieties, inadequate quality seed production and distribution. Although in the short term, humanitarian interventions are likely to be the major determinant of food security, we propose that strategic rebuilding of the wheat system will lay the foundation for restoring Afghanistanâs agricultural production, food supplies, nutrition and health. Here we signal opportunities for future improvement.
Opportunities to build climate resilience and enhance seed systems
The need for climate-resilient varieties that meet farmersâ varied requirements and consumer preferences is paramount. Afghan farmers need varieties with improved traits such as heat and drought resilience, incorporating functional variation from existing landrace collections. In addition, agronomic interventions such as conservation agriculture will offer substantial benefits in buffering environmental stresses.
The technological pathways for seed (re-)distribution are a critical part of the innovation pathway from plant breeding to production and productivity. Given the particularities of markets in Afghanistan, both the public sector and the private sector often fail to reach farming geographies that are remote, diverse, and unserved by physical and institutional infrastructure. For many years, basic public services and agricultural interventions have been provided by the NGO sector, and this form of delivery continues. Hence, local âinformalâ systems for seed and inputs are important to smallholder farmers.
Investment to support both irrigated and rain-fed wheat production
Rehabilitation of ancient irrigation practices and infrastructure could once again serve local farming in a way that supports stable production, restores Afghan heritage, and rebuilds social cohesion. However, there are no easy solutions to the challenges of increasing irrigation to boost agriculture. Although yields are lower, there is potential to optimize breeding specifically for rain-fed production. We expect rain-fed agriculture to continue given the limitations of water and infrastructure access.
Wheat improvement must be embedded in the wider agricultural environment. There is a renewed need for a deep understanding of social, political, and cultural systems and how they vary between villages, and from districts, provinces, and regions to people groups. We need to re-envision the roles of men and women in agriculture, and investment in skills and capacity building to provide a stable foundation for the eradication of poverty and food insecurity.
A new wheat program for Afghanistan
We highlight the urgent need for:
Resumption of breeding of nutritious and climate-resilient varieties.
Development of a knowledge base on current wheat production systems, gendered agricultural roles, farmer needs for varietal change and consumer preferences for tasty and nutritious wheat-based products.
Development of seed information systems using new technologies to enhance farmer engagement in research.
Expansion of appropriate irrigation systems and development of nature-based solutions to protect soil and to preserve and conserve water.
Investment in capacity building among private, non-governmental, university and public stakeholders in seed systems and delivery of agricultural services.
These foundations will support the wider regeneration of Afghanistanâs agricultural sector and enhance food security, nutrition and health of some of the worldâs most vulnerable populations.
Full paper
Poole, N., Sharma, R., Nemat, O.A., Trenchard, R., Scanlon, A., Davy, C., Ataei, N., Donovan, J. and Bentley, A.R. (in production). Sowing the wheat seeds of Afghanistan’s future. Plants, People, Planet DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp3.10277
References
Bentley, A. and Donovan, J. (2022). What price wheat? Crisis in Ukraine underscores the need for long-term solutions for global food security. Retrieved 16 June 2022, from https://staging.cimmyt.org/blogs/what-price-wheat/.
Sharma, R.K. and Nang, M. (2018). Afghanistan wheat seed scenario: Status and imperatives. International Journal of Agricultural Policy and Research6(5): 71-75 DOI: https://doi.org/10.15739/IJAPR.18.008
A women farmer picking up lodged paddy field after the untimely flash floods in Nepal (Photo: Sravan Shrestha/ICIMOD)
As climate change-induced disasters surge around the world, it is the people of the least developed countries paying the bulk of the costs. Â According to the International Disaster Database, the number of disasters across the globe has risen by 74.5% â comparing data from 1980â1999 with 2000â2019 â and these numbers are expected to increase due to the most recent climate change scenarios. The major climate change impacts identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change relevant for Nepal include an increase in economic losses from weather and climate-related events, with a significant contribution related to agricultural losses.
In Nepal, for example, an unexpected and untimely excessive rainfall and flood in October of 2021 caused massive damage to the ready-to-harvest crop across all major rice-producing areas of Nepal â threatening the food security and livelihood of the countryâs smallholder rice farmers.
A rice damage assessment was essential to gather insights on the seed production losses and propose anticipatory measures for seed management and distribution to farmers for the next season. Thanks to a collaboration between scientists from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), a rapid loss assessment through a survey of rice-growing farmers was conducted to quickly assess the damage and recommend critical operational decisions to the Nepali government to mitigate the impact. With the help of an operational mobile app, Geofairy, the USAID-supported Nepal Seed and Fertilizer project (NSAF), implemented by CIMMYT, surveyed 253 farmers in six districts of the mid and far western region with a particular focus on the potential seed production losses for next year’s cultivation.
Unforeseen disaster
The 2021 disaster in Nepal came as a shock to farmers: the 2021 monsoon was proceeding as forecasted in the seasonal outlook, and by the end of the season, farmers were generally expecting bumper rice crops. The withdrawal of southwest monsoon system was declared in early October. However, from 18-20 October 2021, instead of dry spell, the country experienced a three-day excessive rainfall and accompanying flooding that caused massive damage to the ready-to-harvest crop across all major rice-producing areas in the southern lowland Terai region of Nepal.
The partially harvested and standing crop suffered three kinds of damage. First, farmers near the riverbanks lost their ready-to-harvest paddy as it was swept away by flash floods. The second category was in the low-lying southern plains, where rainwater inundated the harvested, but not collected, paddy fields for more than two days, causing seeds or grains on the panicles to sprout. Sprouted seeds on the mother plant have reduced germination capacity and vigor, and cannot be stored for a long period while maintaining the germination capacity. The third damage was stem and root lodging (falling over) due to powerful winds.
Digital technologies for rapid damage assessment
With conventional approaches, on-ground damage assessments after a disaster can take weeks, sometimes months, limiting critical operational decisions in the first few hours and days. However, Nepalâs Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development (MoALD) was already prepared: since 2019, the Ministry has been using satellite remote sensing for in-season rice area estimation through the USAID-supported SERVIR HKH program.
Thanks to the platform, experts from ICIMOD were able to share a satellite image-based assessment as early as 22 October 2021: two days after the flood.
This existing digital crop monitoring platform was used to produce a rapid-damage assessment to provide an analytical basis for initial decisions. In the rapid damage assessment, GMP IMERGE satellite data was used to measure the rainfall intensity across Nepal (Figure 1) and Selntinel-1 SAR satellite data was used to map flood water extent in the Terai district of Nepal on 21 October 2022. The assessment also served as a planning tool for in-depth damage evaluation for farmer compensations.
Widespread flooding
Figure 1. Rainfall distribution during 18-20 October 2021 based on the GPM IMERGE satellite precipitation data
Satellite precipitation data showed the occurrence of hefty rainfall in Morang, Sunsari, Saptari, Siraha and Jhapa districts in the Eastern region. In the Western region, Kailali and Kanchanpur experienced intense rainfall, while most of the central districts of the Terai region remained below heavy rain.
Based on satellite images acquired, the flood extent assessment showed major flood spread in the western parts, including Kanchanpur, Kailali, Bardiya and Banke districts (Figure 2). The flood water extent remained lower in the Eastern districts compared to the West. The causes of severe damage were from direct rain pour and winds in the Eastern region, and flood swept from riverbanks in the Western parts.
Figure 2. Flood extent on 21 October 2021 in Kanchanpur district based on the Sentinel-1 satellite data
Assessment results: Reduced seed quality and shortage of rice seed supply for the next planting season
According to a field-based assessment, the two most popular varieties, Radha-4 and Sarju-52, are the most affected by the flood, especially in Banke, Bardiya, Kailali and Kanchanpur districts. Accordingly, 89% of Radha-4 and 42% of Sarju-52 seed production field has faced partial or complete loss in the surveyed districts. As per the district-wise loss assessment, 80% of Sirju-52 grown in Kailali and 61% in Kanchanpur suffered 50-100% damage. Similarly, nearly 60% of Radha-4 grown in Banke and Bardiya districts has suffered a crop loss ranging from 50-100%. This clearly indicates a huge shortage of these varieties for the next rice season which calls for immediate action to mitigate the seed deficit.
The survey found that farmers in Bardiya, Banke and Kailali had severe or complete crop loss, while those in Kanchanpur, Kapilvastu and Rupendehi had partial crop failure (Figure. 3)
Figure 3. Level of rice loss (%) due to flood, based on a rapid crop loss assessment in six districts of Nepal
Losses and the limits of early warning systems
According to the governmentâs final estimates, about 1,10,000 ha of rice crop area was damaged across the country. Respondents from the western districts reported that 80% of the farmers could only manage 50% or less than the expected harvest. The farmers reported an average input cost of $526 per hectare (NPR 63,162 per ha) and gross expected income of $972 per hectare (NPR 116,674 per ha) â leaving a very narrow margin of profit. To compensate for this economic blow, the government distributed  $43 million (NPR 5.52 billion) among the farmers. However, with a total loss of $0.1 billion (NPR 12 billion), farmers still suffered a great loss.
Figure 4. Percentage of safe harvest in four western districts (Kapilvastu, Rupandehi, Kanchanpur and Bardiya) of Nepal
Although early warning systems were in place in the surveyed districts, some respondents expressed low trust and reliability in the early warnings and only 20% of respondents were aware of the heavy rainfall forecast issued three days before the extreme event. Earlier studies in the Ganges basin have suggested that a 10â20-day lead-time forecast is needed to avoid agriculture losses. However, predicting a high magnitude of low-frequency extreme events with sufficient advance notice is still a significant challenge in climate science.
How to mitigate and weather such challenges?
Nepal’s rice seed replacement rate is around 20%, which means that about 80% of farmers are not accessing good quality seeds every season. The addition of this untimely flash flood and the subsequent seed loss will further worsen seed availability, in turn contributing to food insecurity at the national level. The assessment findings have several implications for actions needed to mitigate future climate shocks.
Among other mitigation approaches, stakeholders need to assess in-country level quality rice seed availability and design a plan to mobilize preferred varieties from the surplus districts â less affected by the flood â to those in need.
During challenging times, maintaining seed quality standards might be difficult. Hence, stakeholders need to consider adopting a flexible quality standard such as âquality declared seedsâ in similar emergency scenarios. The âquality declared seedâ standard helps as an important intervention when normal seed production is greatly affected by drought and/or flood. It offers alternative seed quality standards for seed producers to provide seeds and ensure continuity of crop production.
Promoting climate-resilient varieties, especially lodging- or submergence-tolerant rice varieties, will better withstand flooding as compared to the susceptible ones.
Furthermore, farmers need access to a suitable crop insurance scheme to offset seed losses during extreme weather events. For instance, seed growers can purchase a group insurance scheme where customized premiums could be available to the members.
Some of the above mitigation approaches can be applied when extreme weather events are well forecasted and less severe. However, in the wake of an emerging climate crisis and limited mitigation options, there is a need to balance efforts on all aspects of adaptation, including the adoption of crop management practices including accelerated varietal turnover to modify threats and prevent adverse impacts, strengthen early warning systems with a focus on last-mile connection to minimize damages, and develop innovative mechanisms to address risk transfer and loss and damage compensations for sharing losses.
Wheat leaves showing symptoms of heat stress. (Photo: CIMMYT)
Across South Asia, including major wheat-producing regions of India and Pakistan, temperature extremes are threatening wheat production. Heatwaves have been reported throughout the region, with a century record for early onset of extreme heat. Monthly average temperatures across India for March and April 2022 exceeded those recorded over the past 100 years.
Widely recognized as one of the major breadbaskets of the world, the Indo-Gangetic Plains region produces over 100 million tons of wheat annually, from 30 million hectares in Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan, primarily supporting large domestic demand.
The optimal window for wheat planting is the first half of November. The late onset of the 2021 summer monsoon delayed rice planting and its subsequent harvest in the fall. This had a knock-on effect, delaying wheat planting by one to two weeks and increasing the risk of late season heat stress in March and April. Record-high temperatures over 40â°C were observed on several days in March 2022 in the Punjabs of India and Pakistan as well as in the state of Haryana, causing wheat to mature about two weeks earlier than usual.
In-season changes and effects
Prior to the onset of extreme heat, the weather in the current season in India was favorable, prompting the Government of India to predict a record-high wheat harvest of 111 million tons. The March heat stress was unexpected and appears to have had a significant effect on the wheat crop, advancing the harvest and likely reducing yields.
Departure of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) during the period from March 22 to April 7 from the average of the previous five years. The NDVI is a measure of the leaf area and the greenness of vegetation. The yellow areas in the Punjabs of India and Pakistan, as well as in the state of Haryana, indicate that wheat matured earlier than normal due to elevated temperatures. Maximum temperatures reached 40â°C on March 15 and remained at or above this level throughout the wheat harvesting period. (Map: Urs Schulthess/CIMMYT).
In the North-Western Plains, the major wheat basket of India, the area of late-sown wheat is likely to have been most affected even though many varieties carry heat tolerance. Data from CIMMYT’s on-farm experiments show a yield loss between 15 to 20% in that region. The states of Haryana and Punjab together contribute almost 30% of Indiaâs total wheat production and notably contribute over 60% of the government’s buffer stocks. In the North-Eastern Plains, in the states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, around 40% of the wheat crop was normal or even early sown, escaping heat damage, whilst the remainder of late-sown wheat is likely to be impacted at a variable level, as most of the crop in this zone matures during the third and fourth week of March.
The Government of India has now revised wheat production estimates, with a reduction of 5.7%, to 105 million tons because of the early onset of summer.
India has reported record yields for the past 5 years, helping it to meet its goal of creating a reserve stock of 40 million tons of wheat after the 2021 harvest. It went into this harvest season with a stock of 19 million tons, and the country is in a good position to face this year’s yield loss.
In Pakistan, using satellite-based crop monitoring systems, the national space agency Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SPARCO) estimated wheat production reduction close to 10%: 26 million tons, compared to the production target of 29 million tons, for the 2021-22 season.
We recommend that systematic research be urgently undertaken to characterize and understand the impacts of elevated temperatures on the health of field-based workers involved in wheat production. This is needed to develop a holistic strategy for adapting our global cropping systems to climate change.
India had pledged to provide increased wheat exports to bolster global supplies, but this now looks uncertain given the necessity to safeguard domestic supplies. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Indian government supported domestic food security by providing free rations â mainly wheat and rice â to 800 million people over several months. This type of support relies on the availability of large buffer stocks which appear stable, but may be reduced if grain production and subsequent procurement levels are lower than desired.
We are already seeing indications of reduced procurement by governments with market prices running higher than usual. However, although the Food Corporation of India has procured 27% less wheat grain in the first 20 days of the wheat procurement season compared to the same period last year, the Government of India is confident about securing sufficient wheat buffer stocks.
As with the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, it is likely that the most marked effects of both climate change and shortages of staple crops will hit the poorest and most vulnerable communities hardest.
A chain reaction of climate impacts
The real impacts of reduced wheat production due to extreme temperatures in South Asia demonstrate the realities of the climate emergency facing wheat and agricultural production. Direct impacts on farming community health must also be considered, as our agricultural workforce is pushed to new physical limits.
Anomalies, which are likely to become the new normal, can set off a chain reaction as seen here: the late onset of the summer monsoon caused delays in the sowing of rice and the subsequent wheat crop. The delayed wheat crop was hit by the unprecedented heatwave in mid- to late March at a relatively earlier stage, thus causing even more damage.
Preparing for wheat production tipping points
Urgent action is required to develop applied mitigation and adaptation strategies, as well as to plan for transition and tipping points when key staple crops such as wheat can no longer be grown in traditional production regions.
A strategic design process is needed, supported by crop and climate models, to develop and test packages of applied solutions for near-future climate changes. On-farm evidence from many farmersâ fields in Northwestern India indicates that bundled solutions â no-till direct seeding with surface retention of crop residues coupled with early seeding of adapted varieties of wheat with juvenile heat tolerance â can help to buffer terminal heat stress and limit yield losses.
Last but not least, breeding wheat for high-temperature tolerance will continue to be crucial for securing production. Strategic planning needs to also encompass the associated social, market and political elements which underpin equitable food supply and stability.
Stripe rust, also known as yellow rust, on wheat with droplets of rain. (Photo: A. Yaqup/CIMMYT)
Robust and resilient agrifood systems begin with healthy crops. Without healthy crops the food security and livelihoods of millions of resource-constrained smallholder famers in low- and middle-income countries would be in jeopardy. Yet, climate change and globalization are exacerbating the occurrence and spread of devastating insect-pests and pathogens.
Each year, plant diseases cost the global economy an estimated $220 billion â and invasive insect-pests at least $70 billion more. In addition, mycotoxins such as aflatoxins pose serious threats to the health and wellbeing of consumers. Consumption of mycotoxin-contaminated food can cause acute illness, and has been associated with increased risk of certain cancers and immune deficiency syndromes.
Effective plant health management requires holistic approaches that strengthen global and local surveillance and monitoring capacities, and mitigate negative impacts through rapid, robust responses to outbreaks with ecologically friendly, socially-inclusive and sustainable management approaches.
Over the decades, CGIAR has built a strong foundation for fostering holistic plant health protection efforts through its global network of Germplasm Health Units, as well as pathbreaking rapid-response efforts to novel transboundary threats to several important crops, including maize, wheat, rice, bananas, cassava, potatoes and grain legumes.
On May 12, 2022, CGIAR is launching the Plant Health and Rapid Response to Protect Food Security and Livelihoods Initiative (Plant Health Initiative). It presents a unified and transdisciplinary strategy to protect key crops â including cereals, legumes, roots, tubers, bananas and vegetables â from devastating pests and diseases, as well as mycotoxin contamination. CGIAR Centers will pursue this critical work together with national, regional and international partner institutions engaged in plant health management.
A comprehensive strategy
Prevention. When and where possible, prevention is always preferable to racing to find a cure. Reactive approaches, followed by most institutions and countries, generally focus on containment and management actions after a pest outbreak, especially pesticide use. These approaches may have paid off in the short- and medium-term, but they are not sustainable long-term. It has become imperative to take proactive actions on transboundary pest management through globally coordinated surveillance, diagnostics and deployment of plant health solutions, as well as dynamic communications and data sharing.
To this end, under this Initiative CGIAR will produce a diagnostics and surveillance toolbox. It will include low-cost and robust assays, genomics- and bioinformatics-based tools for pathogen diagnosis and diversity assessment, as well as information and communications technologies for real-time data collection and crowdsourcing. This will be complemented by the development of interoperable databases, epidemiological and risk assessment models, and evidence-based guidance frameworks for prioritizing biosecurity measures and rapid response efforts to high-risk insect-pests and diseases.
Integrated pest management strategies have been key in dealing with fall armyworm in Africa and Asia. (Photo: B.M. Prasanna/CIMMYT)
Adoption of integrated approaches. The goal of integrated pest and disease management is to economically suppress pest populations using techniques that support healthy crops. An effective management strategy will judiciously use an array of appropriate approaches, including clean seed systems, host-plant resistance, biological control, cultural control and the use of environmentally safer pesticides to protect crops from economic injury without adversely impacting the environment.
Through the Plant Health Initiative, CGIAR will promote system-based solutions using ecofriendly integrated pest and disease management innovation packages to effectively mitigate the impact of major insect-pests and diseases affecting crop plants. It will also implement innovative pre- and post-harvest mycotoxin management tools and processes.
Integrating peopleâs mindsets. The lack of gender and social perspectives in plant health surveillance, technology development, access to extension services and impact evaluation is a major challenge in plant health management. To address this, CGIAR will prioritize interdisciplinary data collection and impact evaluation methods to identify context-specific social and gender related constraints, opportunities and needs, as well as generate evidence-based recommendations for policy makers and stakeholders.
Interface with global and regional Initiatives. The Plant Health Initiative will build on the critical, often pioneering work of CGIAR. It will also work closely with other CGIAR global initiatives â including Accelerated Breeding, Seed Equal, Excellence in Agronomy and Harnessing Equality for Resilience in Agrifood Systems â and Regional Integrated Initiatives. Together, this network will help support CGIARâs work towards developing and deploying improved varieties with insect-pest and disease resistance, coupled with context-sensitive, sustainable agronomic practices, in a gender- and socially-inclusive manner.
Targeting localized priorities with strategic partnerships
Effective plant health monitoring and rapid response efforts rely on the quality of cooperation and communication among relevant partner institutions. In this Initiative, CGIAR places special emphasis on developing and strengthening regional and international networks, and building the capacity of local institutions. It will enable globally and regionally coordinated responses by low- and middle-income countries to existing and emerging biotic threats.
To this end, CGIAR will work closely with an array of stakeholders, including national plant protection organizations, national agricultural research and extension systems, advanced research institutions, academia, private sector, and phytosanitary coordination networks.
The geographic focus of interventions under this Initiative will be primarily low- and middle-income countries in Latin America, South and Southeast Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa.
Coupled with CGIARâs commitment to engaging, mobilizing and empowering stakeholders at various scales across the globe, the Plant Health Initiative represents an enormous step towards integrating peopleâs mindsets, capacities and needs towards holistic and sustainable plant health management. It will ultimately protect the food and nutritional security and livelihoods of millions of smallholders and their families.
Nilupa Gunaratna (right), statistician at the International Nutrition Foundation, helps a farmer and her daughter to fill in a survey form on quality protein maize (QPM) as part of the QPM Development (QPMD) project in Karatu, Tanzania. (Photo: CIMMYT)
Recently, I published the technical description of Ontology-Agnostic Metadata Schema (OIMS) in the journal Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, as part of a special issue on âAgile Data-Oriented Research Tools to Support Smallholder Farm System Transformation.â
CGIAR and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) are dedicated to providing research data information products (RDIP) in open access, following the FAIR data standards. FAIR stands for findable, accessible, interoperable and reusable. Organizations dedicated to open data have made massive progress in making data findable and accessible. A clear example is a free, open-access repository of research studies developed by CIMMYT scientists. Article 4.1.c.i. of the CGIAR data policy states that âRelevant data assets (e.g. datasets) and metadata shall be interoperable and fit for reuse.â
This is easier said than done. There are well-established standards for descriptive metadata such as the Dublin Core and the derived standard used widely across the CGIAR, aptly called CGcore, used in CIMMYTâs Dataverse research data repository. However, these standards are lacking in many domains for describing the actual content of data sets.
At best, idiosyncratic data dictionaries are developed for specific datasets, projects and sometimes even programs. Idiosyncratic data dictionaries help make data interoperable but, in many cases, require a lot of preprocessing before scientists can actually reuse the data. Having a standard for data dictionaries would be a huge leap forward, but is not likely to happen anytime soon.
The next best thing is to standardize the way that you describe data dictionaries. This was recognized by the community of practice on socioeconomic data of the CGIAR Platform for Big data in Agriculture. Over the past few years, efforts led by CIMMYT set to remedy that lack of a standard, resulting in the flexible, extensible, machine-readable, human-intelligible and ontology-agnostic metadata schema (OIMS).
The paper in the journal Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems describes a lightweight, flexible, and extensible metadata schema. It is designed to succinctly describe data collected for international agricultural research for development, facilitating interoperability. The schema is also meant to make it easier to store, retrieve and link different datasets stored in a data lake.
Agricultural research data comes to the surface
The paper discusses a need for this type of schema. Typically, agricultural research data comes in different formats and from different sources. For example, we can have structured surveys, semi-structured surveys, mobile phone records and satellite data. In the case of socioeconomic data, it can be particularly âmessy.â To facilitate interoperability, we need to find methods to describe these datasets, which are machine readable â or actionable.
There have been other attempts to provide a standardized way to make data interoperable. Past approaches have been comprehensive but cumbersome. That could be the reason why they are typically only used by larger-scale projects. OIMS provides a framework that can be used by all data managers and scientists to enhance the interoperability for research data to ensure the data can be reused with much more ease.
The paper provides a detailed description of OIMS, including: the metadata schema, which describes the data dictionary; and the self-describing metadata, which describes the fields in the metadata. The paper then demonstrates the utility of this schema using a small segment of a household survey.
This paper presents an internally consistent approach to providing metadata for data files when standards are missing. It is flexible and extensible, so it will not be obsolete before it is implemented at scale. The approach is based on the concept of data lakes where data is stored as is. To ensure that data lakes do not become swamps, metadata is indispensable. The OIMS metadata schema approach can help to standardize the description of metadata and thus can be considered the fishing gear to extract data from the data lake.
As part of the on-going work started by the community of practice on socioeconomic data of the CGIAR Platform for Big Data in Agriculture, implementation of the OIMS metadata schema approach on datasets that can create indicators highlighted in the 100Q approach with linkages to the nascent socioeconomic ontology SEOnt is envisaged. This will provide datasets with enhanced interoperability.
With more and more datasets using the OIMS approach in the near future, it will become possible to turn what is currently a socioeconomic data swamp into a data lake. This will provide timely actionable information to support agri-food systems transformation â helping smallholders make a living while staying within planetary boundaries.
Implementing OIMS in practice requires data managers and scientists that collect the data to actively engage in providing the relevant metadata. As mentioned before, some of the metadata can be gleaned from the software solutions the scientists use already. As these are structured metadata, they can be extracted by machines. Often it does require curation by the scientist involved, especially when the software solution does not provide key information that the scientist has at hand but is not documented in a machine-readable way.
Guillermo Breton with Karim Ammar at CIMMYT Toluca (Credit: Global Farmer Network)
Global food prices were already increasing when the worldâs wheat supply came under extra pressure, due to Russiaâs war on Ukraine. We donât know whether the farmers who have made Ukraine the fifth-largest exporter of wheat will produce anything in 2022.
Food security is bound to fall, with the greatest impact to be felt by those most vulnerable first. Ukrainians are bearing the worst of it, of course, but the fallout from Vladimir Putinâs cruelty will affect us all.
The problem would be much worse if a remarkable group of scientists had not dedicated themselves in the last century to the improvement of agriculture, in work that continues today and promises to make the future a little more hopeful.
My family witnessed the work of these scientists up close. Our farm is in the state of Tlaxcala, in the highlands east of Mexico City. We grow corn, barley, sunflower, and triticale, which is a hybrid of wheat and rye.
During the 1950s and 1960s, Norman Borlaug brought teams of agronomists to our region as he worked to improve wheatâs germplasm. I wasnât born at that time, so I couldnât meet Dr. Borlaug at our farm, but he came many times across several summers. Iâve heard the stories: As my father worked with Borlaug in the fields, growing the seeds that would help Borlaug produce a better kind of wheat, my mother made sure that our house was in order so that Borlaug and his companions had proper accommodations.
Today, of course, Dr. Borlaug is a legend: In 1970, he won the Nobel Peace Prize. Hailed as âthe father of the Green Revolution,â he arguably saved hundreds of millions of lives through science-based improvements to the wheat germplasm.
The result is that wheat farmers around the world grow a lot stronger, healthier wheat today. No matter where we live, weâre better able to deal with problems of scarcity.
Drought, disease, and war still possess the horrible potential to inflict suffering, but weâre in fact much more capable of dealing with them because of what Dr. Borlaug and his fellow researchers accomplished decades ago.
Their work continues today at the International Wheat and Maize Improvement Center, also known as CIMMYT (in its Spanish acronym). Founded by the Mexican government and the Rockefeller Foundation, this non-profit group devoted itself to improving the productivity of Mexican farmers. It became the institutional home of Borlaug, whose work was so successful it transformed agriculture not just in Mexico but around the world.
Mexican farmers gained from its work, and so did wheat farmers in India, Pakistan, and elsewhere. In fact, everybody wins: The world has much more wheat today because of Borlaug and CIMMYT.
Iâm a special beneficiary, and not just because of my familyâs historical connection to CIMMYT. I live within driving distance of CIMMYTâs headquarters, which is a sanctuary of knowledge. It enjoys an amazing history, but also holds a promising future: It remains a resource for improvements in agriculture.
As an agronomist, I always believed that science is a status improver. Because of CIMMYT, Iâm a better farmer today than I was just a few years ago, and Iâll be even better in the years ahead.
CIMMYTâs Karim Ammar taught me about triticale, which is producing great results on my farm. As science has progressed and with the conjunction of science and technology, farmers are able to improve productivity and have better soils. Today, Bram Govaerts, who is now CIMMYTâs Director General, introduced me to the value of no-till, which is making my farm both more productive and more sustainable.
Dr. Borlaugâs dying words were âtake it to the farmers.â Thatâs exactly what his successors at CIMMYT are doing. Theyâre adapting cutting-edge technologies to agriculture. The best part, though, is that they donât keep their knowledge locked up in labs. They share what they learn with farmers like me, who can apply them to the practical work of food production.
Agriculture will face plenty of tests in the 21st century. The worldâs population continues to grow, but our arable land doesnât increase with it. That means we must continue to produce more food from the farms we already have. At the same time, we must contend with the threat of climate change and make our methods more sustainable, which means preserving biodiversity, conserving water, and kidnapping carbon.
Amid these challenges, Russiaâs invasion of Ukraine, a globally important farming nation, is adding stress to the challenge of global food security. As we watch a country and its innocent people suffer, we arenât thinking much about wheat germplasmsâbut we should be grateful that CIMMYTâs agronomists have made us all a little more resilient.
The impacts of the Ukraine crisis are likely to reverberate over months, if not years, to come. If the reductions in wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine are as severe as anticipated, global supplies of wheat will be seriously constrained. If a major reduction in fertilizer exports comes to pass, the resulting drop in global productivity will tighten global markets for wheat, other grains and alternate food sources â leaving vulnerable people all over the world facing higher food prices, hunger and malnutrition.
These massive disruptions will erode modest progress made toward gender equality, biodiversity conservation and dietary diversification. The severe impact of this single shock shows the underlying fragility and complexity of our agri-food systems. Climate change will bring many more.
The world must take essential actions to mitigate food shocks, stabilize local wheat supplies and transition toward agri-food system resilience, from the current efficiency-driven model. We call for large and sustained agricultural research investments as a foundational element of any viable, food-secure future.
From chronic challenges to food crisis conditions
Global wheat production for export is geographically concentrated, placing inherent vulnerabilities on the global system. Dominance of the wheat export trade by a relatively small number of countries makes sense under an efficiency paradigm, but it opens the door to price spikes and food-related crises. At the same time, biophysical vulnerability of major global breadbaskets is on the rise as drought and other weather extremes increase volatility in cereal yields, exports and prices.
Russia and Ukraine produce 28% of the worldâs total wheat exports and Russia is a globally important source of fuel and fertilizer. With over 2.5 billion people worldwide consuming wheat-based products and wheat futures at their highest levels since 2012, disrupted exports from Russia and Ukraine would usher in substantial new pressures on global wheat markets and tremendous risks for vulnerable populations around the world.
Dependence on wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine imperils food security in lower- and middle-income countries in North Africa and the Middle East (Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Yemen), the Mediterranean (Azerbaijan, Turkey), sub-Saharan Africa (Nigeria, Sudan), Southern Asia (Bangladesh, Pakistan) and throughout Southeast Asia. Globally elevated food prices will hit hardest in those countries already struggling with food insecurity.
Layered onto the existing concentration of wheat-exporting countries and the climate-induced vulnerabilities in essential global breadbaskets, the crisis in Ukraine and trade sanctions on Russia are triggering a level of volatility that could easily overwhelm existing mitigation mechanisms. We may well see a range of negative effects over the short, medium and long term, including:
Severe food insecurity and economic impacts due to reduced global wheat supplies and price increases affecting all wheat-importing countries and humanitarian agencies.
Diminished global grain productivity due to fertilizer supply limitations and price escalation, especially in low-income, fertilizer-import-dependent countries.
Higher food prices and expanded global hunger and malnutrition as a result of tighter fuel supplies driving up costs of agricultural production.
Pressure on household budgets negatively affecting nutrition, health, education and gender equity.
The employee of an Ethiopian seed association smiles as bags of wheat seed are ready to be distributed. (Photo: Gerardo MejĂa/CIMMYT)
Stabilize while building resilience
With these multi-layered challenges in view, we propose essential actions to mitigate near-term food security crises, to stabilize wheat supply and to concurrently transition toward agri-food system resilience.
Without doubt, the world’s top priority must be to mitigate food security crises at our doorstep. This will involve boosting wheat production through expanded acreage (e.g. in high-performing systems in the Global North) and closing yield gaps (e.g. improved management and value chains of rainfed, wheat-based systems in the Global South) using policy incentives such as price guarantees and subsidized agricultural inputs. Short-term food insecurity can also be addressed through demand-side management (e.g. market controls to conserve grain stocks for human consumption; use of lower-cost flour blends) and de-risking alternative sourcing (e.g. trade agreements).
As these actions are taken, a range of strategies can simultaneously drive toward more resilient wheat supply at local to global scales. Well-functioning seed systems, demand-driven agronomic support and other elements of wheat self-reliance can be encouraged through shifts in local policy, regulatory and sectoral contexts. Enhanced monitoring capacity can track spatial patterns in wheat cropping, including expansion into areas where comparative advantage for wheat production (e.g. agro-ecological suitability; supporting infrastructure) has been identified in rural development frameworks and national plans (e.g. as a double crop in Ethiopian midlands). In addition to enabling yield forecasts, surveillance systems are critical to phytosanitary control of geographically restricted pathogens under altered wheat trade routes.
Yet, these steps to mitigate food shocks and stabilize local wheat supplies will not adequately protect the world from climate-related biophysical risks to food and nutritional security. In parallel, a transition toward agri-food system resilience requires transformative investments in agricultural diversification, sustainable natural resource management and low-greenhouse-gas agroecosystems, as well as meaningful actions toward achieving gender equality, nutritional sufficiency and livelihood security.
Sustained research & development for a food-secure future
None of the critical actions described above are guaranteed given the oscillating global investment in agricultural research. Enabled by decades of agricultural research, the world has managed to constrain the number and severity of food security crises through major gains in agricultural productivity.
The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), the global international wheat research Center of the CGIAR, has been working tirelessly to maintain wheat harvests around the world in the face of mounting disease pressures and climate challenges. The estimated benefit-cost ratio for wheat improvement research ranges from 73:1 to 103:1. Yet, research funding only rises when food crises occur, revealing the globalized risks of our highly interconnected agri-food systems, and then tapers as memories fade.
With limited resources, scientists around the world are attacking the complex challenge of increasing agricultural yields and ensuring stable, equitable food supplies. Receiving only about 2% of international agricultural research funding over time, CIMMYT and the entire CGIAR have had limited ability to develop the long-term research capabilities that could mitigate or prevent short-term emergencies with medium- to long-term effects.
Responding to the mounting pressures on deeply complex agri-food systems requires integrative solutions that allow farmers and other agri-food stakeholders to mitigate and withstand shocks and to achieve viable livelihoods. Knowledge and technology needs are extensive across production systems (e.g. wheat-legume intercropping; cereals-focused agroecological interventions), value chains (e.g. context-appropriate seed systems; nutrition enhancement through flour blending), monitoring systems (e.g. genomics-based surveillance), and social dimensions (e.g. gender implications of new production and consumption strategies; policy interventions).
Generating such solutions depends on robust, multidisciplinary and transparent research capabilities that fuel the transition to agri-food system resilience. Robust international investment in resilient agricultural systems is an essential condition for national security, global peace and prosperity.
When wheat prices rise, so do global food prices, along with conflict, inequality and instability. Over the past two decades, the world has witnessed multiple crises erupt over the social and political instability caused by rising costs for staple cereals. The global food crisis that impacted many parts of the world in 2007â2008 was a response, in part, to the prices for wheat and rice which had increased 130% and 70%, respectively, compared to the year before. More recently, spikes in grain prices catalyzed the 2011 Arab Spring.
With the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the resulting longer-term disruptions of the countryâs rural economy, there is potential for another round of turmoil linked to prices for staple cereals.
Wheat is a staple crop, essential to food security. It is consumed by over 2.5 billion people worldwide, including large proportions of the populations of many food-insecure regions in the world. Many of the wheat-consuming countries in these regions are far from wheat self-sufficient, relying on global imports to meet demand. This causes significant vulnerability in food supply and increases associated humanitarian risks. In 2019, important quantities of Ukrainian wheat were exported to low- and middle-income countries in North Africa and the Middle East. Although the impacts of current price increases are anticipated to be short-term, they are likely to be inequitably felt, as not all buyers are able to pay higher prices.
There are over 6 million hectares of wheat planted in farmersâ fields across Ukraine that will be due for harvest in June and July of 2022. The length and depth of the current crisis has potential implications for the fate of this in-field crop, and for its subsequent harvest and global distribution. Likewise, sanctions and trading restrictions on Russia, the worldâs largest wheat exporter â exporting $7.92 billion of wheat in 2020 â are likely to place added pressure on international wheat markets. This comes at a time of rising costs in agriculture, including the soaring price of nitrogen fertilizer and increasing fuel and supply chain costs. The gap between supply and demand is also becoming wider with climatic instability â such as drought conditions â hitting both domestic production and export stocks in several countries.
Rising prices for staple cereals have historically led to instability, particularly in fragile regions where food security is low. The impacts of current high wheat prices are likely to be felt most significantly by populations in the Global South who rely on wheat imports.
The potential humanitarian crisis beyond the borders of the current conflict needs to be addressed to avoid deepening global divisions in equality of access to food. In the case of wheat, long-term solutions will require much higher levels of investment, coordination and cooperation between governments, development organizations and agro-industry. Without doubt, part of the solution lies in increasing wheat productivity and profitability in food-insecure regions where wheat has traditionally been grown, as well as supporting the expansion of wheat production into climatically suitable areas in countries which have traditionally relied on imports to meet local demand.
Like many development research and funding organizations, the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR) is emphasizing a renewed commitment to a nutrition-sensitive approach to agricultural development projects.
In the past decade, awareness has grown about the importance of diets that are rich in vitamins and minerals, and the need to combat micronutrient malnutrition which can lead to irreversible health outcomes impacting entire economies and perpetuating a tragic cycle of poverty and economic stagnation.
Lack of vitamins and minerals, often called âhidden hunger,â is not confined to lower-income food-insecure countries. In richer countries we clearly see a transition towards energy-rich, micronutrient-poor diets. In fact, populations throughout the world are eating more processed foods for reasons of convenience and price. To hit our global hunger and health targets we need to invest in nutrition-sensitive agricultural research and production as well as promoting affordable diets with varied and appealing nutrient-rich foods.
Alongside hunger, we have a pandemic of diet-related diseases that is partly caused by the over-consumption of energy-rich junk diets. This is because modern food formulations are often shaped towards addictive and unhealthy products. We see this in rising levels of obesity and diabetes, some cancers, heart diseases and chronic lung conditions.
Investing in agri-food research and improving nutrition will be much cheaper than treating these diet-related non-communicable diseases. Besides being healthier, many people will be much happier and able to live more productive lives.
Yet, the picture is bigger than micronutrient malnutrition. Even if new investments in research enable us to increase the production and delivery of fruits, vegetables and other nutrient-rich foods such as legumes and nuts, we will not have cracked the whole problem of food security, nutrition and health.
Besides âhidden hunger,â many hundreds of millions of people worldwide are hungry because they still lack the basic availability of food to live and work.
Enter cereals. Wheat, maize and rice have been the major sources of dietary energy in the form of carbohydrates in virtually all societies and for thousands of years: recent research in the Middle East suggests that the original âpaleoâ diet was not just the result of hunting and gathering, but included cereals in bread and beer!
There are three reasons why cereals are essential to feeding the world:
First, nutritionists and medics tell us that cereals not only provide macronutrients â carbohydrates, proteins and fats â and micronutrients â vitamins and minerals. We now know that cereals are important sources of bioactive food components that are not usually classed as nutrients, but are essential to health all the same. These are compounds like carotenoids, flavonoids, phytosterols, glucosinolates and polyphenols, which are found naturally in various plant foods and have beneficial antioxidant, anticarcinogenic, anti-inflammatory and antimicrobial properties, likely to be important in mitigating and/or combating disease.
Second, whole-grain foods, especially wheat, are also a major source of dietary fibre, which is essential for efficient digestion and metabolism. Fibre from cereals also nourishes the human gut flora whose products such as short-chain fatty acids have many health benefits including combatting some cancers. Eating such carbohydrates also helps us recognise that we have eaten sufficiently, so that we know when âenough is enough.â
Third, cereal foods are relatively cheap to produce and to buy, and also easy to transport and preserve. Hence, supplies are relatively stable, and good nutrition from cereals is likely to remain accessible to less affluent people.
But all is not well with cereals these days. Cereals are under siege from climate change-related heat and drought, and new and more virulent forms of plant diseases, which threaten our agriculture and natural resources. There remains much research to undertake in this era of rapidly changing climatic conditions, and of economic and political stresses.
Here are a few strategies for agri-food research and its supporters:
We can further increase the nutritional content of cereal foods through biofortification during plant breeding.
We can produce disease- and heat-resilient varieties of grains that are efficient in the use of water and fertilizer, and whose production is not labor-intensive.
By working with communities, we can adapt new production technologies to local conditions, especially where women are the farmers.
We can enhance the quality of cereal foods through nutrient fortification during milling, and by better processing methods and food formulation.
Experts in all agri-food disciplines can work together to inform and ânudgeâ consumers to make healthy food purchasing decisions.
Cereals matter, but in an age of misinformation, we still have to be cautious: Some people are susceptible to certain components of cereals such as gluten. People who are medically diagnosed with cereal intolerances must shape their diets accordingly and get their carbohydrates and bioactive food components from other sources.
So, we cannot live on bread alone: We should aim for diets which are rich in diverse foods.
Such diets include fruits and vegetables that must be accessible to people in different regions, particularly to the most vulnerable, and that provide different macronutrients, micronutrients and essential bioactive components. For most of us, the health-promoting content of cereals means that they must remain a major part of the global diet.
Nigel Poole is Emeritus Professor of International Development at SOAS University of London and Consultant at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT).
Rajiv Sharma is Senior Scientist at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT).
Alison Bentley is the Director of the Global Wheat Program at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT).
A group of farmers involved in participatory rice breeding trials near Begnas Lake, Pokhara, Nepal. (Photo: Neil Palmer/CIAT/CCAFS)
As CGIAR develops 33 exciting new research Initiatives, it is essential for its new research portfolio to move beyond âdiagnosing gender issuesâ and to supporting real change for greater social equity. Gender-transformative research and methodologies are needed, co-developed between scientists and a wide range of partners.
To advance this vision, gender scientists from ten CGIAR centers and key partner institutions came together from October 25 to 27, 2021, in a hybrid workshop. Some participants were in Amsterdam, hosted by KIT, and others joined online from Canada, the Philippines and everywhere in between.
The workshop emerged from gender scientistsâ desire to create a supportive innovation space for CGIAR researchers to integrate gender-transformative research and methodologies into the new CGIAR Initiatives.
The organizing team calls this effort GENNOVATE 2, as it builds on GENNOVATE, the trailblazing gender research project which ran across the CGIAR between 2014 and 2018.
GENNOVATE 2 promises to help CGIAR Initiatives achieve progress in the Gender, Youth and Social Inclusion Impact Area. It will also advance change towards Sustainable Development Goals 5 and 10 on gender and other forms of inequality.
In the workshop, participants sought to:
Share and develop ideas, methods and approaches to operationalize gender-transformative research and methodologies. Working groups focused on an initial selection of CGIAR Initiatives, representing all the Action Areas of CGIAR:
ClimBeR: Building Systemic Resilience against Climate Variability and Extremes; (Systems Transformation)
Securing the Asian Mega-Deltas from Sea-level Rise, Flooding, Salinization and Water Insecurity (Resilient Agrifood Systems)
Sustainable Intensification of Mixed Farming Systems (Resilient Agrifood Systems)
Market Intelligence and Product Profiling (Genetic Innovation)
Build on the significant investments, methods, data, and results from the original GENNOVATE.
Conceive a community of practice for continued sharing, learning and collaboration, across and within Initiatives, to accelerate progress on gender and social equity.
Participants at the GENNOVATE 2 workshop in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, in October 2021.
Joining a vibrant community
GENNOVATE 2 is envisioned to complement the CGIAR GENDER Platform and the proposed new CGIAR gender-focused research Initiative, HER+.
âWe have several gender methodology assets in CGIAR, and GENNOVATE is one of them,â said Nicoline de Haan, Director of the CGIAR GENDER Platform, opening the workshop. âWe want to make sure we cultivate and grow the efforts started during GENNOVATE and move forward important lessons and practices in the new CGIAR portfolio.â
The team of scientists behind GENNOVATE 2 wants to support a vibrant community of researchers who âwork out loud.â They will document and share their research methodologies, experiences and insights, in order to accelerate learning on gender issues and scale out successes more quickly.
The ultimate objectives of GENNOVATE 2 are to:
Develop and deepen a set of methodologies expected to directly empower women, youth, and marginalized groups in the targeted agri-food systems
Contribute to normative change towards increased gender equality across different scales, ranging from households to countries.
Generate and build an evidence base on the relationship between empowering women, youth and marginalized people, and moving towards climate-resilient and sustainable agri-food systems â and vice versa.
âAn example of the added value GENNOVATE 2 can bring to CGIAR Initiatives is understanding what maintains prevailing gender norms in research sites, and also at relevant institutional and political levels,â said Anne Rietveld, gender scientist at the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, and co-organizer of the workshop. âThis will enable CGIAR scientists, partners and policymakers to design locally relevant gender-transformative approaches and policies for more impact. We can do this by building on our GENNOVATE 1 evidence base, adapting methods from GENNOVATE 1 and co-developing new methods in GENNOVATE 2.â
Participants at the GENNOVATE 2 workshop in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, in October 2021.
Whatâs next?
The workshop showed that many scientists from CGIAR and partner institutes are motivated to invest in the vision of GENNOVATE 2. Achieving impact in the Gender, Youth and Social Inclusion Impact Area will require concerted efforts and inputs from scientists on the ground.
âThere is a groundswell of experience and enthusiasm that you, we, this group brings. We need answers and we can and should work together to make this a reality,â remarked Jon Hellin, Platform Leader – Sustainable Impact in Rice-based Systems at the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), and co-lead of the ClimBeR Initiative.
The organizing team listed concrete actions to follow the workshop:
Developing processes and spaces for discussing methodological advancements among the gender scientists in these four Initiatives which other Initiatives can tap into, contribute to and become part of.
To develop these shared and integrated methodologies and approaches into a GENNOVATE 2 conceptual and methodological roadmap â to contribute to the CGIAR Gender, Youth, and Social Inclusion Impact Area and guide other Initiatives, as well as bilateral research
To develop a position paper articulating what can be achieved through concerted efforts to integrate gender and social equity more effectively into the Initiatives, to showcase gender-transformative research methods for further development and implementation. The aim of the position paper is to influence global science leaders and CGIAR leadership in how they include issues of social equity in the Initiatives.
To support these conversations, learnings and harmonization processes through setting up a community of practice, where the âpracticeâ to be improved is the practice of advancing gender research methodologies to go from diagnosis to action. This will start with a core group of enthusiastic researchers and then will expand as it gains momentum, so that all researchers in the various Initiatives interested in social equity can contribute
To seek funding opportunities to support the activities outlined above.
The GENNOVATE 2 organizing team welcomes the participation of interested CGIAR Initiatives as they move forward. The organizing team will also help strengthen interactions with external resource people and research networks, in to cross-pollinate new knowledge and innovations.
If you would like to know more about GENNOVATE 2, please contact Anne Rietveld, Gender Scientist at the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT and Hom Gartaula, Gender and Social Inclusion Specialist at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT).
The GENNOVATE 2 workshop was supported with funds from the CGIAR Research Programs on Roots Tubers and Bananas, Maize, and Wheat.
Workshop organizers Anne Rietveld (Alliance), Cathy Rozel Farnworth (Pandia Consulting, an independent gender researcher), Diana Lopez (WUR) and Hom Gartaula (CIMMYT) guided participants. Arwen Bailey (Alliance) served as facilitator.
Participants were: Renee Bullock (ILRI); Afrina Choudhury (WorldFish); Marlene Elias (Alliance); Gundula Fischer (IITA); Eleanor Fisher (The Nordic Africa Institute/ClimBeR); Alessandra Galie (ILRI); Elisabeth Garner (Cornell University/Market Intelligence); Nadia Guettou (Alliance); Jon Hellin (IRRI); Deepa Joshi (IWMI); Berber Kramer (IFPRI); Els Lecoutere (CGIAR GENDER Platform); Angela Meentzen (CIMMYT); Gaudiose Mujawamariya (AfricaRice); Surendran Rajaratnam (WorldFish); Bela Teeken (IITA), among others.
External experts who provided methodological inputs were: Nick Vandenbroucke of Trias talking about institutional change; Shreya Agarwal of Digital Green talking about transformative data; Katja Koegler of Oxfam Novib talking about Gender Action Learning Systems (GALS) for community-led empowerment; and Phil Otieno of Advocates for Social Change (ADSOCK) talking about masculinities and working with men.
